After another red week, Bitcoin closed below our $80.5k Old Range Low. This is the first sign of weakness we have seen since the June low, but our real line in the sand for this bull market is the 50W MA. It also happens to coincide with our $76k Range High and the 20W MA. We would expect this support to hold and that is my base case now that Bitcoin is approaching that strong support area. If Bitcoin closes below the 50W MA, I will take that as a serious sign of weakness and manage risk accordingly, but until that happens, I will ignore the fearful sentiment and narratives because every 50W MA retest during bull markets occur with that exact backdrop.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment is back in Fear. This is where sentiment was when Bitcoin retested the 50W MA in September of 2023 and August of 2024. Those opportunities look obvious in retrospect, but I can assure you that, in the moment, most investors were focused on the scary narratives at the time and the Fear of lower prices. Everyone wishes they bought the 50W MA retest during Fear in previous bull markets, but when they find themselves in front of that opportunity they realize it is easier said than done. The fact that sentiment is back in Fear is exactly what we want to see during a retest of a pivotal level like the 50W MA.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI is still going sideways. Bitcoin is diverging away from the expected path that the GLI laid out, but we know short-term divergences are common. The GLI is great for providing us a general picture of the current liquidity backdrop, but price action is king. We want to see The GLI continue to work its way higher as Bitcoin holds the 50W MA as support. That combination would create a great setup going into the rest of 2026. We know The GLI has to go higher eventually because the global financial system needs it to, but there will be volatility and declines along the way.

The Labor Market

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of employment, The Unemployment Rate, on Friday, November 6th. The market is expecting The Unemployment Rate to remain flat at 4.2% YoY. We want it to come in-line with expectations or lower. The market is still quite concerned about inflation so we don’t want the labor market to become a major issue on top of those existing concerns.

The Bigger Picture

Things are still looking quite promising for our Shallow Bear Market base case. I believe Bitcoin is working on creating its first major higher low since its June, Bear Market bottom. Investors will drive themselves crazy trying to predict exactly what will happen using their emotions, narratives and news headlines, but I will just rely on price action to tell me when I should add exposure or manage risk. For now, this looks like a standard pullback before Bitcoin’s next push higher, so I have no reason to think otherwise.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you'll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. Members also get access to my full portfolio and every change I make to it. The price will go up as I add features and make improvements, so join now to lock in your rate. You can watch Module 1 and join here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After a very choppy week, Bitcoin closed just above $80k. This continues to look like a standard bull market pullback. Many investors FOMOed into the market after Bitcoin broke above $80k so the market is now testing their conviction. This is the first real test of conviction we have had since the June low so it isn’t surprising that it is worrying many investors. Bull markets always look easy and obvious in retrospect, but navigating these corrections while remaining calm and disciplined is not easy in the moment.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment is still in Neutral and is getting quite close to Fear. If we look back at the pullbacks we saw in 2023, many of them did reset sentiment all the way back to Fear before price rallied higher so this sentiment shouldn’t surprise us. This pullback it doing its job resetting sentiment and shaking out low conviction investors. If you’re feeling anxious the market is going to head lower, you aren’t alone. That’s why the early phase of the bull market is referred to as “climbing the wall of worry”.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI is still slowly grinding higher. We still can’t tell whether this grind higher will take The GLI to new highs or a lower high, but grinding higher is the first step towards the outcome we want to see. The GLI played a big part in creating the shallow bear base case and given the fact that it is still rising, it is very hard to imagine Bitcoin making new lows this year. We’ll continue to monitor this metric and see if liquidity conditions remain favorable going forward.

Inflation

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, on Thursday, October 29th. The market is expecting the YoY print to rise from 3.0% to 3.1%. We want to see this print come in-line with expectations or lower. Inflation is still the market’s main concern, so an upside surprise would really spook investors and put more pressure on the FED to hike rates more aggressively.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still closing weekly candles above the 50W MA. This means it is incredibly likely that we have entered a bull market. Could this be a fakeout before Bitcoin goes lower? of course. However, there’s no reason why we should be focusing on the low probability outcome when we can instead focus on the high probability outcome and manage risk accordingly. I remain a bull as long as the 50W MA is maintained and will adjust my views if it is lost. In the meantime, I will ignore the emotions, vibes and narratives that have investors convinced they’ll be able to predict the future.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you'll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. Members also get access to my full portfolio and every change I make to it. The price will go up as I add features and make improvements, so join now to lock in your rate. You can watch Module 1 and join here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After another brief dip below our ~$80k Range Low, Bitcoin managed to close back above it. This now marks 5 weekly closes above our 50W MA. There’s plenty of narratives out there that investors are clinging onto as to why Bitcoin has to go significantly lower, but so far price action has not backed up those claims. I’ll happily adjust my views once price action calls for it, but up to this point, Bitcoin continues to look resilient and strong given what’s happening in other markets.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment has now fully reset back to the center of Neutral. All the excitement and FOMO from 2 weeks ago has almost completely disappeared and from what I can see, anxiety and fear are beginning to take over once again. Sentiment resets while bullish market structure remains in tact tend to be the best opportunities in bull markets. This is why we will continue to rely on systems instead of what our emotions or vibes are telling us we should do.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI has been slowly grinding higher over the past week or so. It’s too early to say The GLI downtrend is complete, but this is the first step. My already bullish bias would be further increased if we were to see another new uptrend and new high for The GLI here soon. I value price action over The GLI, but the best case scenario is when we see confluence across factors like we saw leading up to our last rally.

The US Dollar

The rise in the The US Dollar has been the main driver of this recent GLI pullback. The good news is that The US Dollar just printed a bearish engulfing candle as it tested its 200W MA. Bearish engulfing candles are usually a sign of a reversal. If we see follow through this week, that would be a great sign that The US Dollar is finding a local top here and heading lower which would send The GLI back to new highs.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still comfortably in the center of our Cheap 🟢 region. If we are entering a bull market, these prices will look like great entries in retrospect. Maybe a black swan event will take us back to the Very Cheap 🔵 region before the bull market kicks off, but the likelihood of that outcome is very low given the price action over the past few months. Waiting for black swans to get the entries we want is a pretty stressful and terrible way to navigate markets because black swans are inherently unpredictable. If they were predictable, they wouldn’t be a black swan.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you'll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. Members also get access to my full portfolio and every change I make to it. The price will go up as I add features and make improvements, so join now to lock in your rate. You can watch Module 1 and join here:

https://www.skool.com/marketenjoyers

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

The Weekly Close

After a pretty quick pullback and liquidation event, Bitcoin closed just under $84k. This means that Bitcoin has now closed 4 consecutive weekly candles above our 50W MA. This is a clear sign of acceptance above that level from the market and makes it very likely we are transitioning from a bear market to a bull market. Every close above the 50W MA further strengthens the bull case and makes it harder and harder for the bear case to hold.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment is back in Neutral. This quick pullback did a great job washing out leveraged positions and resetting market sentiment. We now have Neutral sentiment at prices that triggered Extreme Greed just a few weeks ago. This is why it’s called climbing the wall of worry. Every time the market goes up and gets overly excited, we enter a consolidation period to cool it back down. This is why emotions and vibes are a very unreliable tool for navigating the market.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI has slowly drifted lower over the past few weeks. It’s still maintaining the macro uptrend we have been in throughout 2026, but could be pointing to a Q4 pullback near the end of the year. The GLI is great for mentally preparing for larger trend shifts, but it is not great for predicting day-to-day or week-to-week fluctuations. We’ll keep a close eye on how low this GLI downtrend goes so that we can be mentally prepared for what Bitcoin will likely do later this year.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

Inflation

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of CPI, Core CPI, on Wednesday, October 14th. It has been trending lower over the past few prints, but it is expected to rise from 2.4% YoY to 2.5% YoY on this week’s reading. We want to see this print come in-line with expectations or lower to keep FED rate hike expectations controlled. The labor market has been weakening recently and that is taking pressure off of the FED so we now we want to see inflation do the same.

Core CPI.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still in our Cheap 🟢 region according to where it is in relation to its 200W MA. This consolidation period is giving the 200W MA some time to catch up which slowly raises the price regions of our valuation zones. If we are entering a bull market, a 50W MA reclaim in the Cheap 🟢 region is the lowest risk entry because the invalidation is nearby and the market has already shown clear strength. Buying in the Very Cheap 🔵 region was more profitable, but that higher reward potential came with higher risk and uncertainty when buying. I look forward to Bitcoin visiting the higher regions soon.

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you'll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. Members also get access to my full portfolio and every change I make to it. The price will go up as I add features and make improvements, so join now to lock in your rate. You can watch Module 1 and join here:

Market Enjoyers

A community of 1,300+ investors using systems to reduce stress, reclaim their time, compound their capital, and enjoy the process.

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After another green week, Bitcoin closed right above $86.5k. It seems to be consolidating below our $88k Range Mid. So far there are no signs of weakness in terms of how Bitcoin is trading. The bulls continue to maintain control and the bears have not been able to put up much of a fight so far. Feels great being positioned for upside and seeing this type of price action.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in Greed. This consolidation is helping to cool sentiment and shakeout investors while Bitcoin creates the foundation for its next move higher. In a bear market, Greed is quite rare, but in a bull market Greed is the norm. So the fact that we are seeing extended time spent in the Greed region further solidifies that there has been a regime change here recently and that this move higher should be taken seriously.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI has been trending down recently. This means that we will likely see a pullback in December. We still have plenty of time between now and then so we’ll monitor price action and The GLI over the next few weeks, but it is nice to mentally prepare this far in advance. Pullbacks are a normal part of bull markets so we should make sure that we can handle them. Ideally, we want to see The GLI bottom and start to head higher as soon as possible because the shorter the decline the shallower we can expect Bitcoin’s pullback to be.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

The US Dollar

The US Dollar has broken out above our Range Low. This strength in the US Dollar is what has been putting downward pressure on The GLI. We want to see the US Dollar top and head lower sometime soon so that we can see The GLI bottom and head higher. In the meantime, we will just monitor the US Dollar and look for signs of strength or weakness in its price action. Right now it is testing its 200W MA so we’ll see if bears can put up a fight there.

The US Dollar Index.

The Bigger Picture

Now that we have entered October, it seems as though our Shallow Bear base case was spot on. A higher low later this year is still very possible, but the new lows in October that the 4-year cycle crew became overly attached to seems to not be playing out. We would have been fine regardless because we made sure to prepare for multiple outcomes, but it is always great when the base case that we were most positioned for plays out.

Bitcoin Scenarios and their likelihood.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you'll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. Members also get access to my full portfolio and every change I make to it. Enjoyer OS is now fully published, and the price will go up as I add features and make improvements, so join now to lock in your rate. Watch Module 1 here:

Market Enjoyers

A community of 1,300+ investors using systems to reduce stress, reclaim their time, compound their capital, and enjoy the process.

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After a move higher early in the week, Bitcoin closed its weekly candle just under $84.5k. This means we opened and closed above the 50W MA which further confirms this move to the upside. Every close above the 50W MA is further confirmation that the bottom is in and that we are entering a bull market. I expect volatility because Bitcoin never gives bulls an easy ride, but the price action we are seeing right now is exactly what you’d expect in the early stages of a bull market.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in Greed. Sentiment has been cooling off after every rally as investors start to get nervous that the move is a trap, but that’s exactly what sentiment resets are supposed to do. Bitcoin uptrends are filled with violent pullbacks and boring chop that shakes investors out of their positions. I already see many investors clinging onto bearish narratives and assuming they will be able to buy at much lower prices. Maybe they end up being right, but hope is not a strategy. The market still feels under-positioned for a move higher and I doubt Bitcoin will give them the entry prices they want.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI has begun to trend down slightly so that could align with a Bitcoin pullback in late Q4. As for right now, that pullback will be around late November so we want to see The GLI bottom and head higher again before we reach that timeframe. The GLI is going down due to recent strength in the US Dollar. The US Dollar and bond yields will be important to monitor for the remainder of the year, but I will use Bitcoin’s price action to manage risk, not predictions regarding what bond yields will do.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

The US Dollar

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, on Wednesday, September 30th. This is an especially important print because inflation is the main reason why the market is pricing in rate hikes later this year. The current expectation is a drop from 3.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY. We want the print to come in-line with those expectations or lower to show the market that inflation is heading in the right direction and put less pressure on the FED to hike aggressively.

Core PCE.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still comfortably in the Cheap 🟢 region according to how extended it is from its 200W MA. Our buys in the Very Cheap 🔵 region continue to look quite promising given this recent price action. Buying after a reclaim of the 50W MA is significantly lower risk than buying at the 200W MA because you are buying after strength has been proven, but many investors get attached to the lower prices they didn’t take advantage of. That mindset makes these market regime transitions very hard for those investors to navigate. That’s why being prepared for multiple outcomes is so important.

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you'll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. Members also get access to my full portfolio and every change I make to it. Enjoyer OS is now fully published, and the price will go up as I add features and make improvements, so join now to lock in your rate. Watch Module 1 here:

Market Enjoyers

A community of 1,200+ investors using systems to reduce stress, reclaim their time, compound their capital, and enjoy the process.

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After a volatile week, Bitcoin closed just under $78.8k. This means that Bitcoin closed above our pivotal 50W MA. Not only that, it also printed a bullish engulfing candle which tends to be a great sign of strength. This is the exact type of close we were looking for after pointing out the clear compression right below the 50W MA over the past few weeks. Weak assets to do not hug major resistance levels because sellers usually create a clear rejection once that level is tested. It’s great to see the move we have been talking about for weeks play out.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment is still in Greed. This is to be expected after this recent move. Notice how the market is at a higher price now than a few weeks ago when sentiment hit Extreme Greed. This is the breathing room that has been created by the consolidation we went through over the past few weeks. Markets don’t go up in a straight line, so we should expect some sentiment resets along the way, but so far sentiment is doing exactly what we would expect it to do in a bull market. 

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI is consolidating near the highs. It’s great to see Bitcoin following through on the favorable macro backdrop we have been talking about over the past few months. As of right now it is saying we should see a favorable Q4 which provides an even stronger argument for our shallow bear market base case. It’s no surprise that Bitcoin is surprising everyone to the upside when the liquidity conditions are this big of a tailwind.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

The US Dollar

The US Dollar Index is slowly, but surely, approaching our major resistance level around ~$101. This is what is creating the consolidation we are seeing in The GLI right now. If The Dollar breaks above that resistance level, that will tighten liquidity and could be the catalyst for our next correction, but if it gets rejected at resistance that could provide even more fuel to this rally. The good news is that we don’t have to predict what will happen, we can just monitor the data and react accordingly.

The US Dollar Index

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still comfortably in the center of our Cheap 🟢 region. Our purchases back in the Very Cheap 🔵 region are starting to look very good now that we have our close above the 50W MA. The chances of making new lows this year have plummeted after this recent price action. I look forward to taking some profits in the Fair Value 🟡 region sometime in the near future. In the meantime, I’ll happily sit back and enjoy the rewards for the risks we took earlier this year when other investors were calling for and waiting for much lower prices.

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

I'm no longer going to share my specific portfolio moves in this weekly report or in my YouTube videos. You should all have a pretty good idea of how I approach markets after I published every move over the past 3 years through both a bull and bear phase. I'm stopping because knowing every move I make gets broadcasted to a public audience has started to greatly limit the risks I can reasonably take. It also feels irresponsible to share significantly riskier positions with readers and viewers who don't have the full context behind them. Last, but certainly not least, I'm not comfortable broadcasting what I hold in crypto anymore for privacy and safety reasons. My full portfolio will still be shared inside the Market Enjoyers community because it's a private forum where I can share my trades with way more nuance and have back and forth conversations with you all. Nothing else about this report is changing, you'll still get my full market analysis every week.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you'll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. Members also get access to my full portfolio and every change I make to it. Enjoyer OS is now fully published, and the price will go up as I add features and make improvements, so join now to lock in your rate. Watch Module 1 here:

Market Enjoyers

A community of 1,100+ investors using systems to reduce stress, reclaim their time, compound their capital, and enjoy the process.

www.skool.com/marketenjoyers

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After another week of consolidation, Bitcoin closed just under ~$77k. This means that it is still firmly between our 50W MA at ~$79.6k and our Range High at $76k. I know it is tempting to try and predict exactly what Bitcoin’s next move will be, but the best approach in a tight trading range like this is to just patiently wait and let the market tell us whether the bears or bulls are in control. It’s a lot easier to react to a breakout than to try and position in advance and predict what the direction will be.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in Greed. This consolidation is doing its job in terms of slowly cooling market sentiment. A lot of the hype and excitement we saw a few weeks ago has almost completely disappeared. These consolidation periods are great at calming FOMO and creating more and more complacency in investors and their expectation of lower prices. This is a common pattern we see in bull markets where moves to the upside happen quickly, creating FOMO, then consolidation bores everyone into a calmer state.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI continues to climb higher. This is the exact liquidity backdrop bulls want to see for Bitcoin to head higher over the coming months. The GLI is not enough information on its own to assess what Bitcoin’s next move will be, but it continues to be a valuable tool in our toolkit. As long as The GLI continues to trend higher, my base case remains that Bitcoin will surprise investors to the upside. 

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

FOMC and Interest Rates

We have an FOMC meeting coming up on Wednesday, September 16th. It is clear that the market expects a rate hike so I will follow the market’s expectations. I see a lot of chatter that this rate hike will send the dollar higher and crash markets, but that completely ignores the reality that markets price things in before well understood events occur. If the market thinks there is a 90%+ probability of a hike this week, investors will not wait for the meeting to take action, they will make the necessary changes in advance and position accordingly.

FED Rate Expectations.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still in the center of our Cheap 🟢 region. I would love one last opportunity to load up in the Very Cheap 🔵 region later this year, but the likelihood of that outcome continues to shrink the longer Bitcoin hugs the 50W MA. It feels way more likely that investors will have to chase Bitcoin higher towards the Fair Value 🟡 region since that’s what the minority of investors expect. Regardless, I feel well prepared for either outcome so I don’t have to stress over which region Bitcoin decides to enter next.

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

I sold a little Bitcoin this week to bring my cash position closer to target. This move is not a prediction as to what will happen next, it is to be better prepared no matter what happens next. Bitcoin is at resistance and although I expect a break to the upside, this is the ideal area to manage risk and better position for multiple outcomes. I look forward to deploying this dry powder lower if the market gives me an opportunity to do so, but if it doesn’t, I’ll happily use the dry powder to buy higher risk exposure once the 50W MA has been reclaimed because it greatly increases the likelihood that the bull market is back on.

Portfolio snapshot as of September 14th 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. There is one module of Enjoyer OS left to be released. Watch Module 1 here:

Market Enjoyers

A community of 1,100+ investors using systems to reduce stress, reclaim their time, compound their capital, and enjoy the process.

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After briefly trading above the 50W MA last week, Bitcoin ended up closing the week ever so slightly below it. Bulls are putting up quite the fight by keeping Bitcoin this close to the 50W MA for 3 consecutive weeks. So far the bears have not really done much which is surprising given the fact that the 50W MA is the line in the sand between bull and bear market for many investors. The longer the bulls can keep Bitcoin above our $76k range high, the more likely it is that Bitcoin breaks to the upside. 

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in Greed. This isn’t surprising since Bitcoin has pretty much gone sideways ever since our recent rally. This consolidation is giving sentiment a chance to slowly cool down as the market decides what the next move will be. Extended periods in the Greed region is very normal in bull markets and very rare in bear markets so the longer sentiment stays in this region, the more likely it is that we are transitioning from a bear market to a bull market.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI made new highs again last week and is in full blown price discovery. This is exactly what we wanted to see for this Bitcoin rally to really have some legs and for the likelihood of the bottom being in to skyrocket. This further solidifies our shallow bear market base case because Bitcoin is not only trading like a bullish asset, it also has the macro drop it tends to be the most bullish in. We’ll continue to monitor The GLI to see if this pattern can continue, but as of right now, it is telling us that we have the perfect liquidity environment for Bitcoin to do very well.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

Inflation

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of CPI, Core CPI, on Friday, September 11th. The market is expecting inflation to keep heading in the right direction with a drop from 2.5% YoY to 2.4% YoY. We want to see the print come in-line with expectations or lower so that the FED can continue to pretend to fight inflation instead of being forced to take more action against it. Core CPI has been trending down over the past few years and we want to see that pattern continue.

Core CPI.

The Bigger Picture

The Shallow Bear market scenario remains my base case. Bitcoin has been showing serious strength recently and that greatly reduces the probability of new lows later this year. It’s great to see this recent price action after we spent months talking about the clear underlying strength when Bitcoin was at the 200W MA. Now we can just sit back and enjoy the gains as more and more investors start to pivot their expectations to be more in-line with ours. There’s always a chance we get a surprise later this year, but the likelihood of that outcome shrinks more and more with each additional week that Bitcoin trades at these levels.

Bitcoin Scenarios and their likelihood.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. I took some small profits last week since we are at the 50W MA. So now I am well positioned no matter what the outcome. Break higher and I will happily ride my existing exposure to the upside. Get rejected and head lower and I will happily deploy dry powder at lower prices. In the meantime, I’ll just sit on my hands and let the bulls and bears fight it out to see what the next move will be. There’s no better feeling than being completely okay with whatever the market decides to do and being able to take advantage of it.

Portfolio snapshot as of September 7th 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

Market Enjoyers

A community of 1,100+ investors using systems to reduce stress, reclaim their time, compound their capital, and enjoy the process.

www.skool.com/marketenjoyers

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After a minor rejection at the 50W MA, Bitcoin closed just under $78k. It isn’t surprising that bears are putting up a fight at the 50W MA since it is the line in the sand between a bull market and bear market for many investors. Bitcoin now finds itself stuck between two important levels, the 50W MA at just over $83k and our Range High at $76k. Any price action between these levels is just chop and consolidation. The longer Bitcoin spends in this region, the more likely it becomes that Bitcoin breaks to the upside.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment is currently in Greed. The market has cooled off a little after the Extreme Greed we saw last week which isn’t surprising. Extreme Greed is not really something we see in bear markets so it is yet another variable we can include in our Bitcoin bottom being in base case. The bottom being in does not mean there won’t be volatility and pullbacks to shakeout investors as we trend higher so we have to remain disciplined and focus on the big picture.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI is still consolidating at the highs. We are finally starting to see this uptrend in The GLI clearly reflected in Bitcoin’s resilience over the past few months and this recent rally. With each passing day that The GLI stays at these levels and/or keeps trending higher, the likelihood of our shallow bear market base case increases further. More and more investors seem to be slowly opening up to the importance of monitoring liquidity as a valuable tool in the toolkit alongside the other metrics we monitor.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

The Labor Market

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of employment, the Unemployment Rate, on Friday, September 4th. The Unemployment Rate has been trending in the right direction over the past few months so we want to see that trend continue. As of right now the market is expecting the YoY number to remain flat at 4.1% which is exactly what FED watchers want to see. A stable Unemployment Rate makes it way less likely that the FED will be hawkish compared to an Unemployment Rate that is declining rapidly.

The Unemployment Rate.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still in the center of our Cheap 🟢 region. It’s really hard to tell if our next stop will be the Very Cheap 🔵 region one more time or if we are headed to the Fair Value 🟡 region. The good news is that we don’t have to predict which region comes next, we can just react accordingly because our strategy is able to navigate multiple possible outcomes. All we have to do now is sit back and let Bitcoin decide what it wants to do.

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

I took some profits on my Bitcoin position this morning. My portfolio is up quite a bit since the June lows, so I wanted to lock in a very small piece of those gains. It also helps that Bitcoin is testing the 50W MA, which tends to be a great place to take some profits during a bear market. The same way accumulating at the 50W MA tends to work out great during bull markets. This action is not a prediction as to what comes next. It’s more of a slight portfolio shift to be better positioned no matter what comes next.

Portfolio snapshot as of August 31st 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After a violent rally last week, Bitcoin closed just under ~$78k. This means that Bitcoin was able to close above both our $68k range mid and $76k range high. We have been talking about relative strength for weeks now and this move finally confirmed it for everyone. All that’s left is a close above the 50W MA at $81k to truly get the party started, but even at these prices the likelihood of our shallow bear market base case playing out has skyrocketed. 

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment is in Extreme Greed. This isn’t surprising given the move we saw last week, but it does likely mean the market needs some consolidation. There is a lot of FOMO in the market right now and that’s usually when the market corrects and resets investor sentiment. We have to remain calm and keep our Greed in check the same way we kept our Fear in check over the past few months. Most investors trying to chase this move are likely in for a bumpy ride.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI continues to make new highs. We have spent the past few months acknowledging the clear difference between the liquidity dynamics here in 2026 compared to 2022 and other previous midterm years. It was one of the variables I took into consideration when making the shallow bear market thesis my base case. It’s nice to see Bitcoin providing more and more evidence that liquidity does matter and that this liquidity backdrop is creating very different price action to 2022.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

Inflation

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, on Wednesday, August 26th. The market is expecting the YoY reading to remain flat at 3.3%. Inflation has been heading in the right direction recently so we want to see that trend continue with another YoY drop or a print in-line with expectations. Reacting to new data continues to be a better strategy than trying to predict it.

Core PCE.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is back near the center of our Cheap 🟢 region. It feels great knowing we did plenty of accumulating in the Very Cheap 🔵 region while we had the opportunity to do so. That makes sitting through rallies like this way easier and more enjoyable because we don’t have to chase the move higher. Most investors are stuck with a difficult choice whether to FOMO in or wait and hope for lower prices. We get to sit back and see what the Bitcoin decides to do and react accordingly.

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. The percentage of Bitcoin relative to cash has grown thanks to this recent rally, but I am not interested in taking any profits in the Cheap region. I’ll consider locking in some gains if Bitcoin makes it back to the Fair Value region. The remaining dry powder will be deployed if the market gives us a better buying opportunity later this year, but I am not interested in deploying it at these prices.

Portfolio snapshot as of August 24th 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After briefly trading above the 200W MA last week, Bitcoin ended up closing the week back below it. This has become a very tight and choppy range so we can’t really draw any conclusions from these very small fluctuations to the upside and/or downside. The $60k range low is still our line in the sand to maintain a bullish bias in this range. As we enter the second half of August and first half of September, I expect even more chop and volatility to wreck emotional investors and traders in both directions.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in Fear. This isn’t surprising as we enter late August and early September since most investors are aware of the fact that this is a historically difficult time window for Bitcoin. I do believe the majority of the bear market is behind us and I do expect us to maintain the higher low in sentiment that Bitcoin set back in June. Time capitulation can be just as painful, if not more painful, than price capitulation so discipline and having a plan is crucial during this phase of the bear market. 

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI continues to paint an optimistic picture as to what we can expect for Bitcoin in late September and beyond. The GLI is definitely not the only driver of Bitcoin, but having liquidity be a tailwind is way better than liquidity acting as a headwind. The rising GLI we have right now is the polar opposite to what we saw in late 2022 when the FED was being very hawkish and putting downward pressure on markets. Only time will tell if The GLI ends up mattering or not, but it is a big reason why the shallow bear market thesis remains my base case.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

The US Dollar

The US Dollar Index continues to look quite weak. The False breakout we saw a few weeks ago was a pretty strong sign that bears were still in control and this recent price action further confirms that. This is one of the main variables putting upward pressure on the The GLI right now so we want to see this dollar weakness trend continue. A break below the 2025 low would likely send risk assets flying so I’ll be monitoring how the dollar trades in this range quite closely to see if momentum continues to the downside.

The US Dollar Index.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still just barely in the Very Cheap 🔵 region. This very low volatility chop is exactly what you expect to see during accumulation periods. Many investors are expecting a big drop sometime soon, but that is not my base case. I’m happy accumulating at these prices given my long time horizon, but I’m also mentally prepared for any surprises the market might throw at us in the coming months. I look forward to selling Bitcoin in the Expensive 🟠 and Very Expensive 🔴 regions one day.

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. It feels like it has been ages since I bought or sold any Bitcoin, but this is to be expected given the fact that Bitcoin hasn’t really moved in nearly 2 months. It can be really tempting to make changes to our portfolio because action feels productive, but in these environments doing nothing and being patient is usually the winning strategy. I look forward to deploying the remaining dry powder at lower prices if the market gives us the opportunity or at higher prices once the bottom is confirmed.

Portfolio snapshot as of August 17th 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After briefly trading below the 200W MA last week, Bitcoin was able to bounce and close back above it once again. This is yet another example of buyers stepping in below the 200W MA and absorbing the sell pressure in that price region. Bulls seem to be taking control back from the bears and price structure continues to look promising. It’s only a matter of time before the market wakes up and realizes there is too much demand here for Bitcoin to go significantly lower. In the meantime, Bitcoin will likely just keep climbing the wall of worry.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in Fear. I still see a ton of bearish sentiment and the consensus view right now is definitely lower prices over the next few months. Many investors are convinced they will have an opportunity to buy at lower prices based on what has happened in the past for Bitcoin. They could end up being right, but I am always tempted to expect the opposite when I see this much complacency surrounding a particular outcome.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI continues to maintain its new highs. We really want to see it truly breakout to the upside here, but this is a great step in the right direction. The GLI has never expanded like this during a Bitcoin bear market and it is one of the best arguments for our shallow bear market base case. The GLI still says the second half or August and first half of September will likely be volatile, but it’s painting a very optimistic picture for Q4 if this trend can continue. 

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

Inflation

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of CPI, Core CPI, on Wednesday, August 12st. The market is expecting the YoY number to drop from 2.6% to 2.5%. Inflation continuing to cool would be a great tailwind for markets because it would greatly reduce the pressure on the FED to tighten policy with rate hikes over the next few months. We want this print to come in-line or lower so that more investors realize the inflation situation is not as bad as they previously thought.

Core CPI.

The Bigger Picture

The shallow bear market scenario remains the base case. I believe the investors expecting a normal bear market with a 70%+ decline will be disappointed and will end up being forced to chase the market higher. Demand continues to look strong in this price region so as of right now I don’t know where the sell pressure to take Bitcoin significantly lower could come from. The fearful sentiment and rising GLI continue to increase my conviction in the base case.

Bitcoin Scenarios and their likelihood.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. Price has been pretty flat for the past few weeks so there hasn’t really been much of a reason to make any changes. The best action in markets is usually no action unless the market actually gives us a reason to act. I expect our patience to be rewarded in the very near future so the last thing I want to do at this stage of the bear market is try to complicate things by making a lot of changes while the market is chopping around in a tight range.

Portfolio snapshot as of August 10th 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks and metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After a small selloff, Bitcoin closed its weekly candle just below the 200W MA at ~$63k. This is to be expected as we exit July and enter August which is known for its volatility in mid-term years. We are entering the final stages of this bear market and this is when many investors begin to throw in the towel due to boredom and/or bear market fatigue. Before we know it, it will be October and the worst will be behind us. We just have to remain patient and resilient for a few more weeks.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in fear. Investors are very concerned that we we will see much lower prices due to all the concerning narratives circulating right now. This is to be expected and will likely only get worse before Bitcoin confirms a bottom. If you feel fearful right now that is completely normal and it is exactly why we rely on systems and not our emotions to make good investing decisions. Many investors will make fear-driven mistakes in the coming weeks and we need to make sure we aren’t one of them.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI just made a new high today. This is a pretty big deal given the fact that The GLI did not make a new high in the last 3 mid-term years, 2022, 2018 and 2014 . To be clear, The GLI is not the only driver of markets, but liquidity expansion is very bullish for risk assets. Due to Bitcoin’s lagged relationship with The GLI, we would expect to see these new highs really start to impact Bitcoin in October. Which happens to align perfectly with the 4-year cycle. I’m not sure if timing the bottom will be that easy, but this new high for The GLI further solidifies my Shallow Bear market base case.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

The Labor Market

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of employment, The Unemployment Rate, on Friday, August 7th. The market is expecting The Unemployment Rate to increase from 4.2% YoY to 4.3% YoY. This increase would take some pressure off of the FED and make it less likely the FED will hike rates. If the print comes in below expectations, that could spook markets a little as it would further increase the likelihood of a rate hike later this year.

The Unemployment Rate.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is back in the Very Cheap region. This volatile August and September window could be our last chance to buy Bitcoin in the Very Cheap region for this cycle. It’s hard to know exactly how low Bitcoin will go by the end of the year, but I do think these prices will look like great entries a year or two from now. We just have to make sure we don’t overcomplicate things at this stage by trying to go all-in with the perfect entry or sell to buy back a little lower. Many investors make those kinds of mistakes during this phase of the bear market.

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. I am tempted to accumulate more now that we are back in the Very Cheap region, but I already accumulated quite a bit at these levels. I really want to hold onto my remaining dry powder incase we get a deeper drop later in the year. If that drop doesn’t happen, I’ll happily deploy that dry powder a little higher knowing the bottom is likely in. The peace of mind that comes from having some dry powder to deploy is a game changer during this phase of the bull market.

Portfolio snapshot as of August 3rd 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love Market Enjoyers. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks & metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After another week of chop, Bitcoin closed above the 200W MA once again. Our favorable July seasonality window is coming to an end so we now have to mentally prepare for the volatility we are likely going to experience in August and September. Remaining disciplined and having a plan is the best way to navigate these volatile seasonality windows so now is the time to put that plan together. It’s much easier to create a solid plan during the calm periods compared to trying to react during the storm.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in Fear. I expect this to continue over the next few months as we try to form a bottom. A lot of investors are already nervous about entering this difficult seasonality window so I expect news headlines and narratives that will further increase that fear and uncertainty. This is what investors have to navigate every single bear market and it’s what creates the opportunity for those that are able to take advantage and survive to see the next bull phase.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI is still chopping sideways. This week’s FOMC meeting should help provide some insight as to what we can expect from the FED going forward. Investors are quite concerned that the FED will be hawkish in the short-term and that is creating some strength in the US Dollar which is putting downward pressure on The GLI. The GLI also aligns with what seasonality is telling us to expect in August and September so I do plan to take that confluence of factors seriously. 

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

Inflation

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, on Thursday, July 30th. Core PCE has been rising quite rapidly in recent months so market participants will be watching this print closely to see if that trend is still ongoing or if it has begun to slow down. We did get a nice drop on another popular measure of inflation, Core CPI, recently so hopefully we see the same with Core PCE this week. That would remove a lot of the pressure on the FED to be hawkish and fight inflation for the remainder of the year.

Core PCE.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still in the Cheap 🟢 region. It’s hard to know what the remainder of 2026 has in store, but so far things have been going according to plan. Maybe we’ll get another opportunity to buy in the Very Cheap 🔵 region in August and September, but I have a hard time coming up with a reason why Bitcoin would go significantly lower later this year. Regardless, I feel well prepared for multiple outcomes because I have a plan to take advantage of whatever Bitcoin throws at us. 

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. These are not prices where I want to take profits or accumulate. I’d only take profits if Bitcoin hit much higher prices and I’d only accumulate more if Bitcoin hit new lows. In the meantime, patience and discipline is what I will be relying on to stay calm and stick to my system for the remainder of 2026. I am 100% there will be surprises because there always are, but remaining calm and managing risk gives us the highest likelihood of success in navigating those surprises.

Portfolio snapshot as of July 27th 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love Market Enjoyers. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks & metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After another week of briefly trading below the 200W MA, Bitcoin was able to close its weekly candle back above it for the third week in a row. This continues to be a very clear sign of demand below that level. Buyers clearly see value in the low $60ks and this price action is proof of that. The bulls do seem to be slowly, but surely taking control back from the bears. 

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in Fear. Investors are still nervous price will head lower, but the recent price action is starting to bring some hope back into this market. It wouldn’t surprise me if sentiment was back to Neutral as soon as next week. I’m glad we took advantage of the Extreme Fear when the opportunity presented itself so now we don’t have to worry whether or not we missed the best buying opportunity of this bear market.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI has been slowly grinding higher over the past few weeks. We want to see new highs before getting too excited, but this is a step in the right direction. Bitcoin is experiencing a green July just as The GLI said it would and The GLI is now pointing to a red August and September. We want to see The GLI make new highs soon so that it increases the odds of a solid Q4 for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

The US Dollar

The US Dollar is still right at the ~$101 resistance level. This is an incredibly important area because a Breakout here would crush The GLI and risk assets as a result while a False Breakout here would send The GLI much higher and risk assets as a result. I prefer to let the market tell me what to position for instead of trying to predict what the outcome will be in advance. Regardless, we’ll likely get our answer soon.

The US Dollar Index.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is now back in the Cheap 🟢 region. I’m not sure whether we will get a chance to buy in the Very Cheap 🔵 region again, so I’m glad we took advantage while we had the opportunity. If Bitcoin does go lower later this year I’ll happily buy more, but now we don’t have to worry we missed our opportunity buying below the 200W MA. Many investors will be stressed wondering whether they should FOMO in now because they didn’t buy lower when they had the opportunity.

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. I won’t be taking any profits in the Cheap 🟢 region and will instead wait for Fair Value 🟡 or higher to lock in any gains. The remaining dry powder is to take advantage of potential opportunities later this year, but if those opportunities aren’t granted, I’ll be more than happy capturing that upside with my 82% exposure. Being prepared for multiple outcomes continues to be the best way to navigate markets. 

Portfolio snapshot as of July 20th 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love Market Enjoyers. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks & metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After briefly trading below the 200W MA last week, Bitcoin was able to close back above it at just under $64k. Bias remains to the upside here since we have that clear False Breakdown below $60k. Not to mention the favorable July seasonality that Bitcoin usually experiences in mid-term years. Patience and thinking long-term continues to be the best way to navigate this choppy summer price action.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in Fear. Investors are still quite nervous that Bitcoin will be heading lower soon which is the exact sentiment we would expect given the price action we have experienced over the past few months. Buying during Fear is something we need to get used to as investors. If buying during the best opportunities were easy, everyone would do it and successfully navigate markets. Going against our emotions and remaining disciplined is the challenge we get rewarded for overcoming when the good times return.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI is starting to bounce a bit here, which could be a great sign for Bitcoin’s Q4 bottom. We want to see it make new highs before getting too excited, but a bounce is definitely a step in the right direction. We know The GLI has to go up in the long-term, but the short and medium-term tightening windows are what we have to survive and risk manage to be able to enjoy the long-term trend.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

Inflation

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of CPI, Core CPI, on Tuesday, July 14th. This is an important print because the market and the FED have been very concerned with inflation ever since the energy price shock driven by geopolitical tensions. The market is expecting the YoY number to drop from 2.9% to 2.8% which would be a step in the right direction for markets. We really want the print to come in at or below those expectations so rate hike expectations go down.

Core CPI

The Bigger Picture

The Shallow Bear scenario remains my base case for Bitcoin. We are already seeing clear signs of demand here at the 200W MA and $60k area so it’s hard for me to imagine Bitcoin going significantly lower from here. Especially because we had a less explosive bull market last year with less froth to wash out. I’m still prepared for a Normal Bear scenario where Bitcoin goes quite a bit lower, but the likelihood of that outcome continues to decrease with each passing week.

Bitcoin Scenarios and their likelihood.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

No changes were made to my portfolio this week. I am happy with my spot exposure given where I think we are in this bear market and I’d be quite happy if the market were to skyrocket from here. I’m also happy with the remaining dry powder I have being set aside for better opportunities incase we get some later this year. I feel well positioned for multiple outcomes which I believe it the best way to navigate markets. Now we just have to remain patient and disciplined enough to see things through.

Portfolio snapshot as of July 13th 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love Market Enjoyers. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks & metals, is live and free to watch on the community about page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After a nice bounce off of ~$58k, Bitcoin was able to close just above ~$63.5k. This means that Bitcoin was able to reclaim both our $60k Range Low and the 200W MA. We did just barely close above the 200W MA so we don’t want to get too excited quite yet, but this is a great sign of demand below $60k and it is a confirmed False Breakdown below that level.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment has recovered back to Fear. We are creating an interesting divergence right now where price made a lower low, but sentiment did not. This is very similar to what happened at the October 2025 top where price made a higher high while sentiment made a lower high. The sentiment divergences do tend to mark trend shifts so seeing this divergence is quite promising. 

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI didn’t do much aside from chop sideways last week. It is pointing to a July rally so we could be seeing the beginning of that right now, but we really want to see new highs for The GLI to get excited about a new Bitcoin bull market. As of right now, The GLI is pointing to a pretty choppy Q3 with a rally this month, but then a correction or consolidation from August to October. I don’t expect Bitcoin to follow The GLI perfectly, but it does align with my general expectations for Bitcoin over the next few months.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

The US Dollar

The US Dollar just barely put in a False Breakout above the $101 resistance level that it briefly traded above. Another close below $101 this week would be a confirmed False Breakout and would be huge for The GLI and risk assets as a result. Dollar bulls have their chance to save the Breakout this week, but if they fail, I expect bears to take over and send the US Dollar much lower over the next few months which would be a huge tailwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

The US Dollar Index.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin is still in the Very Cheap 🔵 region. It isn’t surprising that we are starting to see some serious signs of demand here given Bitcoin’s history with the 200W MA. It’s impossible to know exactly where Bitcoin will bottom, but buying below the 200W MA has never turned out poorly for investors. We will have to navigate some chop and volatility, but I do believe these prices will look like a gift a few years from now.

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

I bought more Bitcoin using my cash this morning. I hope we get better prices later this year, but that doesn’t mean I won’t take advantage of good prices while I have them. My plan is to simply accumulate Bitcoin over the next few months without thinking too much about what it will do in the short-term. I have made the mistake of trying to be too cute with my bear market entries in the past and I am making sure not to make the same mistake this time around. 

Portfolio snapshot as of July 6th 2026.

P.S. If you found this report useful, you’ll love Market Enjoyers. Module 1 of Enjoyer OS, my complete system for compounding crypto, stocks & metals, is live and free to watch on the community page. The founding rate is available while I publish the remaining modules and goes up once Enjoyer OS is fully live. Watch Module 1 here:

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I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝

After a pretty eventful week for Bitcoin Treasury companies, Bitcoin closed right above $59.4k. This means Bitcoin closed below our $60k Range Low. This weekly close is too close to the pivotal $60k level to be considered a confirmed breakdown, but another close below it would confirm it. If we don’t see follow through to the downside this week, it would be a clear sign that the market is not willing to accept Bitcoin <$60k even with all the fear and uncertainty investors are experience right now, which would be a very bullish sign.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment is back in Extreme Fear. This isn’t surprising given the price action we saw across Bitcoin Treasury Companies last week and with Bitcoin trading below the 200W MA. This is the exact sentiment backdrop we would expect during the best buying opportunities near the 200W MA. I will continue to ignore sentiment and narratives and will instead focus on price action and where Bitcoin is relative to its 200W MA because I know my emotions will fail me during these types of events.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI continues to slowly drift lower. This aligns with our base case of chop and consolidation for Bitcoin between now and October. The GLI is trending down because the dollar has been strengthening ever since Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting. It’s only a matter of time before the GLI begins rising again because “nothing stops this train”. The entire financial system relies on liquidity expansion due to the massive debt burden countries have. All we have to do is manage risk and remain patient enough for the macro trend to continue. 

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

The Labor Market

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of employment, the unemployment rate, on Thursday, July 2nd. The market is expecting the YoY reading to remain flat at 4.3%. We want to see that number come in at or below expectations. The market will be watching this print closely to see if the labor market will give the FED a reason to ease sooner that the current market expectations. Inflation is the main story right now so if the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, the FED will keep their hawkish tone for a little longer.

The Unemployment Rate.

The Bigger Picture

I know there are many investors that are convinced Bitcoin is about to experience a much deeper decline here, but I still expect $50-$60k to act as a floor for Bitcoin in 2026. I hope we follow the Normal Bear scenario and get lower prices to accumulate later this year, but I am accumulating now incase we don’t get those lower prices. I know it’s tempting to want to go all-in on whatever outcome we think is most likely, but I have found being prepared for multiple outcomes to be a much better way to navigate markets. 

Bitcoin Scenarios and their likelihood.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

I used some of my Cash to buy Bitcoin this morning. Felt pretty great buying Bitcoin under $60k with the Extreme Fear and scary narratives everyone is panicking over right now. I have no idea exactly where Bitcoin will bottom, just like I had no idea where Bitcoin would bottom in 2022 or 2018, but what I do know is that buying near the 200W MA tends to payoff nicely in the long-term. So I’m happy to accumulate over the next few months whether Bitcoin bottoms around these prices or lower. Not letting perfect be the enemy of good is one of the best changes I have made to my system in recent years.

Portfolio snapshot as of June 29th 2026.

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After a pretty choppy week, Bitcoin closed just above ~$63k near the 200W MA. The market is having a hard time deciding what path to take next. Bitcoin is stuck between resistance at $68k and the 200W MA at $62.5k. Chop and consolidation remains my base case for the rest of the summer as long-term holders accumulate in this area.

The Bitcoin Weekly Chart.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment remains in Fear. Investors are still unsure whether Bitcoin is bottoming in this area or if it has lower to go. There have also been many scary narratives that are convincing investors that Bitcoin is headed way lower. This is to be expected at this stage of the bear market and will likely only increase as we try to form a bottom.

The CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

The Global Liquidity Index

The GLI continues to slowly head lower. This supports our base case that Bitcoin will likely be consolidating and chopping around over the next few months. We really want to see The GLI rising rapidly before getting too optimistic about a new bull market beginning. In the meantime, we can accumulate at solid prices and position ourselves for the long-term.

Bitcoin and The Global Liquidity Index.

Inflation

We will be receiving an update to the FED’s preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, on Thursday, June 25th. The market is expecting the YoY number to increase from 3.3% to 3.4% so we want the print to come in-line or below those expectations. Inflation has been a major concern for market participants recently so everyone will be watching this print closely to see how bad the energy shock has impacted prices.

Core PCE.

The Bigger Picture

Bitcoin remains right between our Cheap 🟢 and Very Cheap 🔵 regions. It’s hard to know exactly where Bitcoin will bottom, but accumulating in the Very Cheap region has worked wonderfully in every previous Bitcoin bear market. The hard part now is remaining disciplined and sticking to the plan we laid out months ago even while our emotions and narratives try to make us do the opposite. 

Bitcoin’s value based on how extended price is from its 200-week moving average.

What I’m doing with my portfolio

I sold my Strategy and Strive for Bitcoin this morning. I have decided that I don’t want to publicly endorse any Bitcoin Treasury companies or any other higher risk forms of Bitcoin exposure. I will just focus on accumulating Bitcoin over the next few months and will look for opportunities on altcoins that I believe will do well next cycle. I still believe Strategy and Strive will do well in the long-term, I just don’t want to complicate my plan or portfolio at this stage of the cycle.

Portfolio snapshot as of June 22nd, 2026.

P.S. If you made it to the end of this report, thank you for reading and I hope you got some value from it. If you liked this report, you’ll love the Market Enjoyers program and community. You can learn more about it here:

Market Enjoyers

A community of 1,100+ investors using systems to reduce stress, reclaim their time, compound their capital, and enjoy the process.

www.skool.com/marketenjoyers/about

I hope you have an amazing week and the future looks bright. 🤝