Summary

Risk appetite was weighed down by a selloff in technology stocks. The energy sector fell amid mixed signs from peace talks in the Middle East.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: Russia.

• Central bank speakers: None specifically scheduled.

• Economic data: Brazil: Interest-rate decision; China: RatingDog services PMI, composite PMI; Eurozone: S&P Global services PMI, CPI, 5:00am NY / 10:00am UK / 9:00pm AEDT; Israel: Rate-meeting minutes; Mexico: International reserves; Netherlands: CPI; New Zealand: Unemployment, ANZ commodity prices; Poland: Interest-rate decision; Spain: Unemployment, S&P Global services PMI; Sweden: Interest-rate decision; US: ADP employment change, 8:15am NY / 1:15pm UK / 12:15am AEDT (5 Nov), trade balance, 8:30am NY / 1:30pm UK / 12:30am AEDT (5 Nov), MBA mortgage applications, ISM services index, S&P Global services and composite PMIs, 9:45am NY / 2:45pm UK / 1:45am AEDT (5 Nov); Ukraine: GDP.

• Commodities reports: Genscape weekly ARA crude inventory report, 4:00am NY / 9:00am UK / 8:00pm AEDT; Spain Cores September crude-import data; EIA weekly US oil inventories, supply and demand, 10:30am NY / 3:30pm UK / 2:30am AEDT (5 Nov).

• Events: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement; ADIPEC continues in Abu Dhabi; 30th Ibero-American Summit begins in Madrid, through 5 Nov; Nordic Compass summit begins in Gothenburg, through 5 Nov; opening arguments scheduled in Los Angeles trial involving Meta and Snap; Qualcomm earnings; Metals & Miners earnings: Marubeni, Mitsui, Itochu, Mitsubishi, Lundin Mining, Albemarle, Materion; Energy earnings: TPL 3Q, Tourmaline 3Q, Atmos.

• Market data: LME inventory and warrant data, ~4:00am NY / 9:00am UK / 8:00pm AEDT; SHFE warrant change data, usually after market close.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil endured a volatile session as traders were presented with conflicting signals on the progress of peace talks between the US and Iran. Brent crude was initially under pressure after both parties expressed openness to diplomacy. Bloomberg reported the two sides are reviewing the latest proposals from mediators on how to bridge the divide and avert another wave of tit-for-tat attacks. However, futures pared some losses after Iran said the US response to its demands was not satisfactory. Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, reiterated that Iran’s seven conditions must be fully met. Iran state media reported that no new developments have been reached regarding an agreement.

There were reports of skirmishes between Iran and the US. American officials said the US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island near the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the WSJ. Trump subsequently confirmed the US hit an Iranian anti-aircraft facility. However, US Energy Secretary Wright insisted the strikes have not impacted oil flows through the waterway. The conflicting diplomatic headlines suggest the market is likely to focus on what happens to physical flows. Our global oil market tracker shows that Persian Gulf exports are running at 14.3mb/d. Meanwhile effective throughput of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 56% of the pre-conflict normal and is trending lower.

European gas futures experienced large swings without a clear path to a peace deal in the Middle East conflict. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen soon, supplies won’t arrive at European ports for many weeks, even months. That will put ongoing pressure on depleted inventories. The International Energy Agency warned that tightness in the global natural gas market could well extend into next year as Europe risks ending this winter with record low fuel inventories and will need to replenish them. North Asia LNG prices dipped below USD34/MMBtu, despite pockets of demand appearing. Taiwan and Thailand have been active in the physical market. Deliveries to India have stayed strong, with imports running 30% above a year earlier on a 30-day moving average according to ship tracking data.

Copper fell to a three-month low amid a selloff across technology stocks which weighed on risk appetite. Concerns are mounting that the boom in investment into data centres and energy-related infrastructure may subsequently fall as capital becomes more difficult to obtain for AI companies. Copper is a key metal in the infrastructure buildout and has tracked AI stocks higher over the past 12 months. Aluminium was also lower as the market contemplates a shift in the fundamental outlook. Middle East production has recovered faster than expected. The Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE has restarted 50% of capacity; and more than 90% of affected production, equivalent to 1,555kt, is likely to resume in 2027. Strong profitability has kept China’s smelters operating above the 45mt capacity cap this year. Global aluminium output is estimated to be steady in 2026 but is expected to grow by more than 4% in 2027. This will likely see the market move into surplus in 2027.

Gold ended the session lower despite the prospect of diplomacy in the Middle East pushing energy prices lower. Gold and oil have largely moved in opposite directions in recent months, with elevated energy prices fuelling expectations of tighter monetary policy

Chart of the Day

The US data-centre build-out is running ahead of the power system needed to support it. Data-centre construction spending has almost doubled over the past year, compared with growth of around 12% in private power construction, while generation and transmission projects typically take several years longer to complete. The constraint is therefore shifting from capital for computing capacity to the availability, location and timing of electricity supply.

The commodity impact of the AI boom may increasingly shift from the data centre to the power grid. With construction of computing capacity running ahead of the supporting electricity system, the next leg of investment will need to be considerably more metals intensive. Copper should be the principal beneficiary, but aluminium, electrical steel, silver and zinc also stand to gain as spending migrates toward transmission, substations, transformers and new generation capacity.

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Summary

Energy fell sharply on hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict. Improved risk appetite helped push precious and Industrial metals sectors higher.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: Japan.

• Central bank speakers: RBA Governor Michele Bullock media conference following the rate decision; ECB Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks at Santander’s International Banking Conference; ECB Governing Council members Martin Kocher, Primoz Dolenc and Dimitar Radev participate in the OMFIF Sofia Forum; ECB Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin speaks at the JECO conference.

• Economic data: Australia: RBA interest-rate decision; Hong Kong: GDP, retail sales; New Zealand: Building permits; South Korea: CPI; Switzerland: CPI; Turkey: CPI, PPI; US: Factory orders, durable goods, 10:00am NY / 3:00pm UK / 2:00am AEDT (4 Nov), light vehicle sales, JOLTS job openings; Vietnam: Industrial production, CPI, trade.

• Commodities reports: IEA Global Gas Security Review and Q4 Gas Market Report; Spain Cores provisional September oil-product consumption; API weekly US oil inventories, 4:30pm NY / 9:30pm UK / 8:30am AEDT (4 Nov).

• Events: US midterm elections, with all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 state governorships on the ballot; ADIPEC continues in Abu Dhabi; WinWin conference in Brussels; Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance begins in Washington, through 4 Nov; SALT London begins, through 4 Nov; UK Chancellor John Healey leads Treasury ministerial team for oral questions in the House of Commons; Metals & Miners earnings: Ivanhoe Mines; Energy earnings/trading updates: Saudi Aramco 3Q, Viridien 3Q, Marathon Petroleum 3Q, Suncor 3Q, Energy Transfer 3Q, Rubis 3Q trading update.

• Market data: LME commitment of traders report on metals positions; LME inventory and warrant data, ~4:00am NY / 9:00am UK / 8:00pm AEDT; SHFE warrant change data, usually after market close.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil slumped as the US and Iran explored a diplomatic solution to the eight-month conflict. Iran’s state-run news agency, IRNA, reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has approved government pursuit of negotiations. President Pezeshkian did not clarify the extend of the new authority bestowed by Khamenei, or whether it signals a broader shift in the Islamic Republic’s ‘red lines’ in indirect negotiations with the US. However, it’s the first sign of a diplomatic opening amid aggressive posturing by both sides in recent weeks. The announcement saw Brent crude, the global oil benchmark extended declines to more than 10%.

Nevertheless, Persian Gulf states are steeling themselves for a heavy bombardment of Iran, that could trigger a cycle of retaliation. Governments, including Qatar and UAE, are running security drills, while attendees at a major energy conference in Abu Dhabi are cutting short their stays. Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Badr Abdelatty, said a new round of escalation would be more destructive than before. The oil market is also wary of stop-and-go diplomatic efforts that haven’t delivered peace, with the two adversaries yet to agree on terms for fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The focus is therefore likely to remain on what actually happens to physical flows. Our global oil market tracker shows Persian Gulf exports are running at 14.3mb/d, while the effective flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to 56% of the pre-conflict normal and is trending lower. The logistics constraint is the clearest source of stress, limiting the market’s ability to redirect barrels or compensate for further disruptions.

European natural gas futures also fell more than 10% on the renewed hopes of negotiations between the US and Iran. This eased fears of further disruptions to LNG shipments from the Gulf region. However, the region is still facing supply pressures as the winter heating season approaches. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU gas storage facilities were 74.6% full as of 1 Nov, while Germany’s storage level stood at just 61%, below the country’s 70% target. Reports that the US is backing the resumption of Russian natural gas sales to Europe via pipelines running through Ukraine also weighed on prices.

The slump in energy markets triggered a rally across the rest of the commodity complex. Copper led the base metals sector higher, as the lower energy prices eased concerns of weaker economic growth. Sentiment was supported by a broad pick-up in stock markets in Asia and Europe as risk appetite improved. Supply side issues are providing support. Chile’s copper output sank to its lowest level in more than two decades in the last quarter. State copper commission, Cochilco, cut its 2027 production forecast to 5.08mt, implying a rebound of 3%. Gold was a beneficiary of the slump in energy markets. Oil and gold have been moving in opposite directions in recent weeks, on expectations of tighter monetary policies as a result of higher inflation.

Iron ore prices came under pressure after the China Iron & Steel Association warned that excessive production has contributed to rising inventories, falling steel prices and shrinking mill margins. CISA has consequently called for stricter voluntary output controls and inventory reductions to restore the supply-demand balance and improve profitability.

Chart of the Day

Tightness in the fuel products continues to be the biggest issue for the oil markets. Diesel inventories have been drawn down heavily amid disruptions to supply not only in the Middle East, but in Russia. Stockpiles continue to fall, with levels now 5% below the five year average.

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Summary

Energy gained on the prospect of renewed hostilities in the Middle East. Precious metals fell as inflationary concerns rose. Industrial metals were also lower.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: Angola; Mexico; Brazil.

• Central bank speakers: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Financial Markets Group Fall Conference; ECB Vice President Boris Vujcic and Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf speak at the Central Bank of Ireland Financial System Conference; ECB Governing Council members Jose Luis Escriva and Emmanuel Moulin speak at the World in Progress forum.

• Economic data: Australia: Building approvals, Melbourne Institute Inflation; China: RatingDog manufacturing PMI; Eurozone: S&P Global manufacturing PMI, 4:00am NY / 9:00am UK / 8:00pm AEDT; France: S&P Global manufacturing PMI; Germany: S&P Global/BME manufacturing PMI, retail sales; India: HSBC manufacturing PMI; Indonesia: CPI, trade, S&P Global manufacturing PMI; South Korea: S&P Global manufacturing PMI; Taiwan: S&P Global manufacturing PMI; Vietnam: S&P Global manufacturing PMI; Pakistan: CPI; Serbia: GDP; UK: S&P Global manufacturing PMI; US: Construction spending, ISM manufacturing, 10:00am NY / 3:00pm UK / 2:00am AEDT (3 Nov), S&P Global manufacturing PMI, 9:45am NY / 2:45pm UK / 1:45am AEDT (3 Nov).

• Commodities reports: Bloomberg October oil tanker trackers; Saudi Aramco December OSPs due in the early part of the month.

• Events: ADIPEC begins in Abu Dhabi, through 5 Nov; Paris InfraWeek begins, through 6 Nov; Hong Kong Monetary Authority Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit begins, through 4 Nov; Bloomberg Tech London begins, through 3 Nov; Hong Kong FinTech Week begins, through 6 Nov; OECD Financial Markets Week begins in Paris, through 6 Nov; Apple earnings; Palantir earnings; Metals & Miners earnings: POSCO Future M, POSCO Holdings, Sumitomo; Energy earnings: Diamondback Energy 3Q, Williams 3Q.

• Market data: LME inventory and warrant data, ~4:00am NY / 9:00am UK / 8:00pm AEDT; SHFE warrant change data, usually after market close.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil pushed higher last week as the market contemplated further disruptions to supplies. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to restart strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections. Last week Persian Gulf nations were notified to prepare for a short intense military campaign in the region. This followed a briefing for Trump by a top commander on his military options. In the meantime, attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz continued. One vessel was struck on Thursday, while a second was approached by a small boat that attached explosive devices to its hull, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations. However, the prospect of renewed hostilities in the Middle East were tempered by diplomatic efforts. The White House said that peace talks were taking place following Vice President Vance reaching out to the secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaee.

The oil market has adapted to eight months of Middle East disruption, but its ability to absorb another shock has diminished. Persian Gulf exports remain constrained, tanker availability is tight, alternative export routes are stretched and global distillate inventories sit around 5% below their five-year average. Recovering Chinese crude purchases are also providing an important floor for the market. The US midterm elections on 3 November represent the next major geopolitical catalyst. While de-escalation could see geopolitical risk premiums unwind, the physical market would take longer to normalise. Renewed disruption poses the greater risk, with depleted inventories, constrained shipping capacity and limited immediately deliverable OPEC spare capacity leaving the market increasingly vulnerable to a disproportionate price response.

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia followed crude oil prices higher, as supply disruptions persisted. European gas topped EUR100/MWh for the first time since December 2022 as traders grow concerned about shortages over the northern winter. Germany is set to miss its official target for filling natural gas storage sites, with gas reserves only 61.17% full as of Friday. Overall, Europe’s fuel storage sites are only 75% full, well below usual levels for this time of year. The shortfall comes as colder weather is forecast to sweep across Germany and much of Europe, potentially boosting demand for gas for heating. Last week saw the storage facilities record their first daily net withdrawal, signalling the start of the heating season. North Asia LNG prices were also supported by falling exports from Australia. The 30-day moving average of shipments fell to 210kt last week, the lowest since June and about 5.4% below the five-year seasonal average.

Copper led the base metals sector lower last week as a selloff in technology stocks weighed on sentiment. It has been supported in recent months by booming investment in data centres driving expectations of strong demand. The rise in energy prices also raised concerns about global economic growth. This has been partly offset by signs of strong demand. The Yangshan premium spiked to more than USD200/t, the highest level since 2017. The steep spread reflects greater competition for the metal.

Gold tumbled to hit a one year low of USD3875/oz, as high energy prices stoke concerns of higher inflation which could force central banks to continue raising rates.

Chart of the Day

Chinese smelters have been able to sidestep constraints on capacity to boost output and exports. This is going someway to offset the supply disruptions in the Middle East. Beijing's aluminum exports are up 16% y/y in the first eight months of 2026, an increase of around 670kt. This is against a roughly 970kt decline in exports from UAE, which is home to one of the biggest aluminium producers globally.

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Summary

Lower risk appetite weighed on sentiment across the commodity complex. Energy prices fell on signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: None listed.

• Central bank speakers: BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda press conference following the rate decision; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and ECB chief economist Philip Lane speak at the San Francisco Fed’s 2026 Economic Research Symposium; ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta speaks at a World Savings Day event in Rome; St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem gives keynote address at the Shadow Open Market Committee meeting in New York.

• Economic data: Brazil: unemployment; Chile: industrial production; Colombia: unemployment, rate decision; Czech Republic: GDP; Eurozone: GDP, 06:00 NY / 10:00 UK / 21:00 AEDT, unemployment; France: CPI, GDP; Germany: CPI, unemployment; Hungary: GDP; Italy: GDP, CPI; Japan: Bank of Japan interest-rate decision, Tokyo CPI, unemployment, industrial production, retail sales; Macau: GDP; Mexico: GDP; Philippines: trade; Poland: CPI; South Africa: trade balance; South Korea: industrial production; Spain: CPI, GDP; Sri Lanka: CPI; Taiwan: GDP; Thailand: current account, trade; US: employment cost index, MNI Chicago PMI.

• Commodities reports: China weekly iron ore port stockpiles; Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~03:30 NY / 07:30 UK / 18:30 AEDT; Chile copper production for September; Baker Hughes weekly rig count report, 13:00 NY / 17:00 UK / 04:00 AEDT Saturday; CFTC commitments of traders weekly report on US futures and options, 15:30 NY / 19:30 UK / 06:30 AEDT Saturday; ICE Futures Europe weekly commitment of traders report, 14:30 NY / 18:30 UK / 05:30 AEDT Saturday; SHFE warrant change data, usually after market close; LME inventory and warrant data, ~05:00 NY / 09:00 UK / 20:00 AEDT.

• Events: G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Atlanta begins, through 31 Oct; EU-Canada Summit in Montreal, final day; Singapore International Energy Week, final day; Mysteel webinar on 4Q outlook for China’s copper market, 04:00 NY / 08:00 UK / 19:00 AEDT; ECB releases quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, including updated expectations for inflation, growth and unemployment; DRC, Iraq and Qatar sovereign credit-rating reviews.

• Market data:Brent December futures expire; Metals & Miners earnings: China MCC; Shandong Iron and Steel; Energy earnings: Cnooc 3Q; IOC; BP 3Q; ExxonMobil 3Q; Imperial Oil 3Q; Chevron 3Q; Dominion 3Q; Exelon 3Q.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil edged lower as diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict intensified. US Vice President JD Vance reached out to Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, to see if they could find any common ground to persuade President Trump to pull back from ordering more military action against Iran. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would continue to give diplomacy a chance. Trump also told Axios that negotiations were taking place through mediators. These moves eased concerns that an escalation in fighting in the Middle East would cause further supply disruptions. Earlier this week, several Persian Gulf nations were notified to prepare for a short, intense military campaign in the region. Adding to concerns about an imminent resumption of hostilities was the prospect of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu edging ahead of opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot in the country’s election.

Those concerns were also eased following ship-tracking data from Bloomberg showing that Saudi Arabia’s oil loadings at its export facilities in the Persian Gulf rose to nine supertankers. That amounts to approximately 18mbbl of oil. The market for oil products has been under even more stress, as disruptions in the Middle East have been exacerbated by reduced flows from Russia as Ukrainian forces target Russian refineries. Shell Plc CEO Wael Sawan said global fuel inventories had been drawn down very quickly and noted that it is going to take some time to refill that inventory. He also warned that the current oil price spike no longer looks temporary.

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia followed crude oil prices lower. Nevertheless, disruptions to Middle East supply continue to cause issues. QatarEnergy announced earlier this week that it is extending its force majeure on LNG shipments to Italy, as well as clients in Asia. It has subsequently needed to purchase LNG to meet other customer agreements. It also entered into a deal with Woodside to purchase 3mt of LNG annually from its Louisiana LNG project. In Europe, gas storage has stalled at a record low as the heating season kicks off. Inflows have all but stopped with tanks only 74.9% full. Austria, Slovakia and Czechia have already begun drawing gas out of storage for a second week as temperatures begin to fall.

Gold prices eased lower despite the FOMC deciding to keep rates unchanged this week. Instead, the lack of any clues about the Fed’s next move left markets pricing in a rate hike before the end of the year, as high energy prices put further upward pressure on inflation. In comments after the decision, Fed Chair Warsh said you can’t help but take note of the recent rise in oil futures. This wasn’t helped by the solid PCE data (as we discuss above).

A rout in tech shares, led by a sell-off in Alphabet, triggered a risk-off tone across markets, ultimately leading to lower prices across the base metals sector. Copper has led the charge in recent months, with booming investment in data centres driving expectations of strong demand for the key metal. The downward pressure was partly offset by signs of strong demand in China. Copper buyers are rushing to secure supply amid a tightening market. This has sent the Yangshan premium to a record high of USD200/t.

Chart of the Day

Copper continues to benefit from the AI-related tech boom. There is little doubt that demand will be boosted by the rise in investment in energy infrastructure and data centres. However, for the moment its main benefiting is coming from the boost in sentiment. That’s clearly shown by the correlation between the tech heavy S&P 500 Index and the 3m copper future on the LME. This also raises the risk that any bursting of the AI bubble triggers a similar selloff in copper.

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Summary

The energy sector rose on reports of a resumption of hostilities in the Middle East conflict. Gold whipsawed, as the Fed held rates steady.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: Turkey.

• Central bank speakers: ECB President Christine Lagarde press conference following the ECB decision; ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone remarks at “One Year to T+1” event in Frankfurt; ECB Governing Council members Martin Kocher and Olaf Sleijpen speak at an Austrian central bank event on energy policy; ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch speaks on Europe’s economic challenges; Swiss National Bank policy maker Petra Tschudin speaks at the central bank’s money market event in Geneva; Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent delivers opening remarks at the John Kuszczak Memorial Lecture.

• Economic data: Chile: unemployment; Egypt: rate decision; Eurozone: ECB interest-rate decision, 09:15 NY / 13:15 UK / 00:15 AEDT Friday; consumer confidence; Italy: unemployment; Ukraine: rate decision; US: GDP for 3Q, 08:30 NY / 12:30 UK / 23:30 AEDT; personal income/spending and PCE price index, 08:30 NY / 12:30 UK / 23:30 AEDT; initial jobless claims, 08:30 NY / 12:30 UK / 23:30 AEDT

• Commodities reports: Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data; Insights Global weekly oil-product inventories in Europe’s ARA region; EIA weekly report on US natural gas inventories, 10:30 NY / 14:30 UK / 01:30 AEDT Friday; main North Sea loading programmes for December due; SHFE warrant change data, usually after market close; LME inventory and warrant data, ~05:00 NY / 09:00 UK / 20:00 AEDT.

• Events: EU energy ministers meet in Luxembourg to discuss issues including winter preparedness; OeNB event on energy crisis and clean-energy transition in Vienna; EU-Canada Summit in Montreal begins, through 30 Oct; Singapore International Energy Week; Energy Technology & Innovation Meet in Goa, final day; Mysteel webinar on 4Q outlook for China’s lithium market, 04:00 NY / 08:00 UK / 19:00 AEDT; Codelco board meeting.

• Market data: Metals & Miners earnings: Chalco; Maanshan Steel; Angang Steel; Jiangsu Shagang; BYD; Komatsu; Hitachi Construction; Samsung SDI; SK Innovation; Caterpillar; Vale; Energy earnings: Sinopec 3Q; Shell 3Q; TotalEnergies 3Q; OMV 3Q; Repsol 3Q; Technip Energies 3Q; TechnipFMC 3Q; Neste 3Q; Vattenfall; Aker BP 3Q; Cheniere 3Q; Other major earnings: Amazon; Intel; BBVA; ING; Societe Generale; Lloyds Banking Group.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil rose on the prospect of resumption of US strikes on Iran, raising concerns of further supply disruptions. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US has told several Persian Gulf nations to prepare for a short, intense campaign. Vessels that have no need to move between ports in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz should stay away, the US Naval Forces Central Command said in an advisory issued via the Joint Maritime Information Centre. Adding to concern of an imminent resumption of hostilities was the prospect of Prime Minister Netanyahu edging past opposition leader, Gadi Eisenkot, in Israel’s elections. Netanyahu recently pledged to topple Iran’s regime. These events erased hopes of a diplomatic solution following talks between senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. Earlier in the day, Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran “continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed”.

Risks remain elevated, with Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure coming under repeated attacks from the Yemen-based Houthis. An attack sparked a fire near the kingdom’s biggest oil export terminal at Ras Tanura. This comes against a backdrop of diminishing buffers. US crude oil inventories fell by 1,892kbbl last week, the fourth straight weekly drop. Gasoline stocks in the US mid-west fell to the lowest level on record. Global demand for crude saw US exports jump to nearly 5mb/d, the highest level since late May.

European natural gas prices hit EUR100/MWh for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis, on fears that an escalation of the Middle East conflict could further disrupt global gas supplies. With the US warning countries in the Middle East of possible military action, the likelihood of Qatar resuming its exports of LNG remain distant. QatarEnergy has announced that it is extending its force majeure on LNG shipments to Italy’s Edison SpA through to the end of December due to the difficulties of shipping gas through the Strait of Hormuz. This comes as recent warm temperatures are giving way to a cold spell, which will boost demand for heating. North Asia LNG also rose almost 2% to trade above USD33/MMBtu, its highest since December 2022. QatarEnergy also extended its force majeure announcement to clients in Pakistan, Bangladesh and India.

Gold whipsawed, as traders reacted to rising oil prices and the Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold. Immediately after the Fed announcement, gold came under pressure as US 10y bond yields pushed higher. That was likely triggered by concerns that by not hiking now, it increased the risk of higher oil prices spilling over into general inflation. That was supported by comments from Fed Chair Warsh, who said you can’t help but take note of recent rises in oil futures. Earlier in the session, the precious metal dipped below USD4,030/oz following reports that the US would recommence military action in the Middle East.

Base metals were largely unchanged, with traders cautious heading into the FOMC’s meeting. This wasn’t helped by technical disruptions to some LME systems that created issues for traders. The market remains on edge, as doubts emerge around the data-centre rollouts that have triggered a surge in demand for the metal. Australia is seeing a surge in public announcements of new AI data centres, with builders planning to add around 23GW of computer capacity. However, many of these projects are being halted due to community opposition.

Chart of the Day

Tightness in the zinc market continues to push prices higher. The zinc market entered the year expecting a meaningful increase in mine output, helped by projects such as Kipushi, Gamsberg, McIlvenna Bay, Romina, Rosh Pinah and Bunker Hill. But the new tonnes have not arrived quickly enough to satisfy underlying smelter demand. The result is the somewhat unusual combination of improving headline mine supply but an extremely tight spot concentrate market.

The tight market has shown up in plunging smelter treatment charges, which sank further last month to end August at minus USD125/t in China. Lower fees show how a shortage of ore is forcing smelters to accept tougher terms from miners, although they can often make up the difference by selling by-products.

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Summary

The energy sector retreated amid more diplomatic talks on the Middle East conflict. This boosted sentiment across the industrial and precious metal sectors.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: Greece.

• Central bank speakers: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh press conference following the FOMC decision; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem press conference following the rate decision; RBNZ Governor Anna Breman press conference following the rate decision; RBA Governor Michele Bullock and other senior officials appear before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee via videoconference.

• Economic data: Australia: CPI; Canada: rate decision; Hong Kong: trade; India: industrial production; New Zealand: rate decision; Russia: industrial production, unemployment; Sri Lanka: trade; Thailand: rate decision; US: FOMC interest-rate decision, 14:00 NY / 18:00 UK / 05:00 AEDT Thursday; goods trade; MBA mortgage applications.

• Commodities reports: Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region, 05:00 NY / 09:00 UK / 20:00 AEDT; EIA weekly report on US oil inventories, supply and demand, 10:30 NY / 14:30 UK / 01:30 AEDT Thursday; SHFE warrant change data, usually after market close; LME inventory and warrant data, ~05:00 NY / 09:00 UK / 20:00 AEDT.

• Events: UK Budget Statement; All Energy Australia conference in Melbourne begins, through 29 Oct; China Petroleum & Chemical International Conference in Zhanjiang begins, through 31 Oct; Singapore International Energy Week; Energy Technology & Innovation Meet in Goa; Mysteel webinar on 4Q outlook for China’s ferrous market, 03:00 NY / 07:00 UK / 18:00 AEDT; Aluminum Association Annual Meeting in Washington DC begins, through 30 Oct; New Orleans Investment Conference 2026 begins, through 31 Oct; deadline for Eurogroup members to submit candidates to succeed ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel; Apple “Pro and tell” product launch in Los Angeles; Jio Platforms set to list on the BSE and NSE.

• Market data: Metals & Miners earnings: Jiangxi Copper; Hesteel; Gotion; First Quantum Minerals; Teck Resources; Agnico Eagle Mines; Energy earnings: PetroChina; Equinor 3Q; Endesa; Phillips 66 3Q; Other major earnings: Alphabet; Microsoft; UBS; Deutsche Bank; Santander; BNP Paribas; Standard Chartered.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil edged lower as talks eased tensions in the Middle East. Following the arrival of senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, Iran said it is flexible on a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US blockade in seven days. Iran’s President Pezeshkian said his country isn’t seeking to acquire nuclear weapons and wants to continue its nuclear activities within the framework of international rights as an NPT member. President Putin was due to meet Pezeshkian on the sidelines of an energy summit in Moscow. The market was also contemplating what the Israeli election could mean for the Middle East conflict. Prime Minister Netanyahu has pledged to topple Iran’s regime, while his challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, says that’s not an achievable goal.

The talks failed to generate any meaningful selling interest, as traders are increasingly focused on what is happening on the ground. Supply risks continue to increase, with Saudi Arabia announcing that it had contained a fire near its biggest export terminal at Ras Tanura following an attack on the region. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted two missiles launch by the Houthis targeting Riyadh. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority said it would take legal action against tankers belonging to Sinokor, the world’s biggest oil tanker owner, due to crossing violations. The company’s ships are said to have accounted for nearly 40% of all crude that flowed through the Strait of Hormuz last month, according to ship tracking data firms.

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia were dragged lower by the pullback in crude oil markets. Nevertheless, the ongoing disruption to LNG supplies continues to hang heavily over the market. QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG shipments to Italy’s Edison SpA through the end of December due to the Strait of Hormuz blockages. European benchmark prices have gained more than 200% since the start of the Middle East conflict, but high prices are failing to deter Asian buyers, with Indian Oil Corp awarded a tender to deliver shipments for November delivery.

Sentiment in the base metals sector was boosted by a rally in technology stocks on global exchanges, following the release of more details of Anthropic’s IPO. This was aided by signs of tightness across various metals. Spot copper’s premium over benchmark three-month futures surged to USD195.87/t, its highest levels in two months, signalling mounting supply stress in the short term. Much of its near-term tightness has been created by traders importing large amounts of the metal into the US on fears President Trump would impose tariffs on refined metal. In China, the Yangshan premium, a gauge of demand for imported copper, rose to its highest level since 2017. Supply side issues have also played their part. Freeport-McMoRan, the top US copper producer, cut its fourth quarter copper sales forecast as its struggles to ramp up its Grasberg mine in Indonesia.

Gold found some support from bargain hunters following the recent pullback in prices. The retreat in crude oil prices also eased inflationary concerns ahead of the FOMC meeting later this week. Chinese retail demand has picked up, with buying under so-called accumulation plans exceeding the 2025 total in just the first nine months of the year.

Chart of the Day

Brent’s deepening backwardation highlights the severity of the immediate supply squeeze, with the front-month premium over 12-month contract widening from around USD17/bbl in early October to USD30/bbl. However, the concurrent rise in Dec-2027 prices suggests the market is no longer treating the shock as purely temporary. While the steep curve still implies substantial easing from current conditions, higher longer-dated prices point to a growing risk premium around the duration of supply disruptions, the rebuilding of depleted inventories and the prospect of permanently higher costs of moving Middle East crude.

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Summary

Sentiment was boosted by an AI-triggered rally in equity markets. Oil pushed higher as peace talks fail to ease supply concerns. Metals were also higher.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: Israel.

• Central bank speakers: ECB President Christine Lagarde attends an informal dinner and exchange of views with EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefkovic in Frankfurt.

• Economic data: Chile: rate decision; China: industrial profits; Eurozone: ECB Bank Lending Survey; Mexico: trade, international reserves; South Korea: GDP, consumer confidence; US: ADP weekly employment change, 08:15 NY / 12:15 UK / 23:15 AEDT; durable goods orders for September, 08:30 NY / 12:30 UK / 23:30 AEDT; new home sales; Conference Board consumer confidence.

• Commodities reports: API weekly report on US oil inventories, 16:30 NY / 20:30 UK / 07:30 AEDT Wednesday; LME commitment of traders report on positions for metals; SHFE warrant change data, usually after market close; LME inventory and warrant data, ~05:00 NY / 09:00 UK / 20:00 AEDT.

• Events: Israel parliamentary election; LME steel futures settled against SHFE begin trading; Singapore International Energy Week; Muscat Maritime Resilience Forum begins, through 28 Oct; Energy Technology & Innovation Meet in Goa begins, through 29 Oct; World Series game three.

• Market data: Brent December options expire; Metals & Miners earnings: Tongling Metals; Baoshan Steel; Tata Steel; Freeport-McMoRan; Energy earnings: Baker Hughes 3Q; FirstEnergy 3Q; ONEOK 3Q; Expand Energy 3Q; EQT 3Q.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil traded near its six-month high as peace talks failed to ease concerns of ongoing supply disruptions in the Middle East. Iran’s President Pezeshkian said his country is ready to back “any understanding” that leads to regional unity. State media reported that Iran isn’t seeking nuclear weapons. This came as top security officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey met Iranian leaders to defuse tensions and revive talks aimed at preventing an escalation of the US-Iran conflict. However, this comes as both Iran and the US appear to be preparing for hostilities to recommence in the near term. The US has ordered a wider evacuation of diplomatic personnel from across the Middle East, while President Trump continues to hint that US forces could resume strikes after the midterm elections.

Meanwhile, the oil market’s resilience remains under acute pressure. Our Oil Market Resilience Dashboard classifies the market as vulnerable, with stress across supply, logistics, inventories and refining. Persian Gulf exports have fallen to 14.3mb/d, Strait of Hormuz throughput is running at just 60% of normal, and surplus OPEC capacity stands at 0mb/d under prevailing conditions. Downstream buffers are stretched, with global distillate inventories 4.9% below their five-year average. Physical conditions have deteriorated. Persian Gulf crude exports fell for a fourth consecutive week, while Yanbu loadings remained depressed. Crude inventories declined across all regions, while global product stocks edged lower. This tightness is feeding into prices, with Middle Eastern crude futures rallying sharply and Dated Brent’s premium to front-month futures rebounding.

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia were dragged higher by gains in crude oil. North Asia LNG rose nearly 2.5% to trade above USD32/MMBtu as signs of a full resumption in LNG supplies from the Persian Gulf remain distant. Many consumers have no option but to seek LNG cargo despite the high prices, with buyers from Bangladesh and Vietnam particularly active. This situation wasn’t helped by Indonesia’s decision to cut gas exports to bolster its domestic supplies. This has left Singapore seeking alternative sources in an increasingly competitive market.

Copper edged up on signs of demand strength in China. Supplies in China are tight due to falling domestic output, lifting the Yangshan premium (a gauge of demand for imported copper) to USD178/t. This is its highest level since 2017. Sentiment was boosted by a recovery in AI stocks, after Anthropic announced its IPO. Spending on energy infrastructure to support the sector has been a strong driver of demand growth despite higher energy prices weighing on the global economy.

Gold recovered some ground after briefly trading below the key psychological barrier of USD4,000/oz late last week. However, the gains were limited, as traders pondered the outlook for interest rates ahead of FOMC meeting this week. The market is pricing-in a less than 10% chance that the Fed will increase rates, but high energy prices are maintaining expectations of a hike before year-end.

Iron ore prices fell as global supplies increased. Brazil has recorded strong growth in exports in the first two weeks of October. This has lifted arrivals at China’s 47 major ports, adding to supply pressure.

Chart of the Day

The widening deficit in diesel inventories relative to the five-year average highlights one of the most acute pressure points in the global oil market. Middle-distillate stocks have continued to draw as constrained refining capacity and disrupted trade flows limit the ability of supply to respond. The latest Global Oil Market Tracker shows further declines in global distillate stocks, while US inventories also fell over the past week.

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Summary

Rising tension in the Middle East pushed the energy sector higher. Precious metals fell on the prospect of rate hikes. Supply side issues supported industrial metals.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: Taiwan; Kazakhstan; Venezuela.

• Central bank speakers: RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones participates in a panel at the AFR Super & Wealth Summit in Melbourne; ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson gives keynote speech at a climate event in Yerevan, Armenia.

• Economic data: Germany: IFO business climate; Pakistan: rate decision; Singapore: industrial production.

• Commodities reports: Angola final programme for December crude exports due; SHFE warrant change data, usually after market close; LME inventory and warrant data, ~05:00 NY / 09:00 UK / 20:00 AEDT.

• Events: China Communist Party Central Committee plenum begins in Beijing, through 29 Oct; Singapore International Energy Week begins, through 30 Oct; Nigerian Economic Summit in Abuja, through 27 Oct; Bloomberg Invest Dallas, through 27 Oct; Kyiv Economic Forum; former US Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Wisconsin with gubernatorial candidate David Crowley.

• Market data: Metals & Miners earnings: GEM Co.; Nucor; Energy earnings: Galp 3Q.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Brent crude rose more than 6% last week to reach USD116/bbl, its highest level since April as intensifying attacks in the Middle East stoke concerns of extended disruptions to supply. Iran’s attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz have increased, with at least 23 vessels hit over the past two weeks, according to data from naval groups in the region. Iran’s IRGC also claimed it maintains full control over the Strait of Hormuz and warned that it would not allow US military vessels to enter the Persian Gulf. The conflict appears to be spreading, with Houthis increasing attacks on Saudi Arabia. The group said it attacked Saudi’s Red Sea port of Yanbu and Aramco’s Shaybah oil field, which together have the capacity to produce 1mb/d. The Saudi Energy Ministry said however that they were unaffected.

Fears of an escalation in the conflict are building. The New York Times reported that the US and Israel have developed plans to renew strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections. The US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, told the Financial Times that the US is preparing for a protracted conflict that could still be mired in a stalemate a year from now. The rising attacks have also seen the US order the evacuation of some personnel and family members from American embassies in the region. Over the weekend, President Trump said its “getting to be decision time” on whether he will make a deal with Iran or resume attacks.

Fears of an escalation in the Middle East raised concerns of extended supply disruptions of natural gas, lifting prices in both Europe and Asia to a multi-year high. European benchmark futures rose to EUR94/MWh, its highest level since December 2022, as the region enters peak demand season. Traders have started dipping into winter gas inventories, with stockpiles recording their first net decline on Tuesday last week. The region’s LNG imports rose in October but remain below 2025 levels, with the shortfall estimated to reach 11% by the end of the month. North Asia LNG prices hit a four-year high as Asian buyers are increasingly concerned about shortages over the coming months.

Gold fell to its lowest level since July last week, as rising energy prices stoke concerns of tighter monetary policies. This saw the precious metal break below the key psychological barrier of USD4,000/oz. Data showing US consumer sentiment fell to a five-month low in October exacerbated those concerns. A rotation out of AI- related stocks pushed investors toward the safety of US bonds. This resulted in a rise in yields in US Treasuries, a headwind for non-yielding assets such as gold. The persistent upside risks to inflation are likely to push the FOMC to tighten policy and raise the fed funds target rate by 25bp to 4.0–4.25% at its next meeting.

Renewed supply side issues pushed the base metals sector higher last week. Strikes at copper mines in South America are increasing, as workers look to benefit from the recent price gains. Nickel was supported by the prospect of lower supply from Indonesia. Last week, Chinese producers in Indonesia promised to cut output of mixed hydroxide precipitate, a key element in EV batteries, by around 20%.

Chart of the Day

Middle East OSPs have fallen into negative territory as producers compete aggressively for Asian market share. Rising regional supply has coincided with elevated freight and insurance costs, eroding the Gulf’s traditional delivered-cost advantage. Producers have responded by cutting differentials to regional benchmarks, effectively absorbing part of the logistics shock through lower relative realisations. Importantly, this does not imply cheaper crude in outright terms. Benchmark prices have risen sharply, meaning Asian refiners face higher underlying crude prices alongside elevated shipping costs, despite increasingly aggressive discounts from Middle East producers.

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Summary

Rising attacks in the Middle East pushed the energy sector higher. AI-related stock selloff weighed on risk appetite across the rest of the complex.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: Thailand.

• Economic data: Canada - retail sales; Eurozone - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ECB CPI expectations; France - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; Germany - S&P Global/BME Manufacturing PMI; India - HSBC Manufacturing PMI; Japan - CPI, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; Kazakhstan - rate decision; Russia - rate decision; Singapore - CPI; Taiwan - industrial production, unemployment; UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; US - University of Michigan consumer sentiment, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; Eurozone PMIs released 10:00am Brussels (4:00am NY / 9:00am UK / 7:00pm AEDT); US PMIs released 9:45am NY / 2:45pm UK / 12:45am AEDT 24 Oct.

• Commodities reports: Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly commodities inventories (~3:30pm Shanghai); Baker Hughes weekly rig count (1:00pm NY / 6:00pm UK / 4:00am AEDT 24 Oct); CFTC Commitment of Traders report (3:30pm NY / 8:30pm UK / 6:30am AEDT 24 Oct); ICE Futures Europe Commitment of Traders report (6:30pm London / 1:30pm NY / 4:30am AEDT 24 Oct).

• Events: Major League Baseball World Series begins; Apple’s foldable iPhone Duo goes on sale; France, Greece and Ukraine sovereign credit rating reviews.

• Market data: Adani Power results; Eni 3Q results; SLB 3Q results.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil pushed higher, as rising hostilities in the Middle East raised concerns of further supply disruptions. A drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field killed two people, as the Yemen-based Houthis continue attacks on the kingdom. The Iran-backed group also claimed responsibility for the attacks on the Saudi port of Yanbu in the past 48 hours. The attacks have prompted the US to evacuate some personnel and family members from American embassies in the country, but have had little impact on oil production so far, although the increasing focus on energy infrastructure points to higher risks of a disruption.

This comes amid attacks from Iran on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. At least 23 incidents involving ships attacked near Hormuz were logged in the first two weeks of October, according to data from naval groups in the region. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it hit four “violating” oil tankers while transferring cargo in the northern Persian Gulf. These attacks have led to murmurings of a response from the US. The New York Times reported Israel and the US have developed plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections.

Natural gas in Europe and Asia pushed higher, as the prospect of a recovery in supply from the Middle East faded. European benchmark natural gas futures traded above EUR90/MWh after inventories fell for the first time this winter, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. That spells trouble for the region, with storage facilities only 75% full, against the normal 90% before such withdrawals begin. The only hope is that the mild temperatures Europe has experienced so far this winter will continue. Most forecasts are pointing to unseasonably warm weather returning to northwest Europe next week. However, temperatures are expected to drop in November. North Asia LNG prices also hit a four-year high, as Asian buyers become increasingly concerned about shortages over the coming months.

Copper led the base metals sector lower after a selloff across AI-related stocks sapped risk appetite. It also triggered concerns that spending on infrastructure such as power lines and data centres would impact demand for key metals such as copper and aluminium. This took the focus away from ongoing supply side issues across the sector. Workers at Canada’s largest copper mine, the Highland Valley copper operation, threatened to strike this weekend over pay and conditions. Rising prices have also raised labour tensions in South America, where several mining companies are deep in negotiations with unions. Nickel prices held up relatively well as traders ponder the impact of lower supply from Indonesia. Earlier this week, Chinese producers in Indonesia promised to cut output of mixed hydroxide precipitate, a key element in EV batteries, by around 20%.

Gold fell to a two-month low as rising energy prices put upward pressure on inflation just before the Fed sits down to discuss its outlook for interest rates. The negative correlation between oil prices and gold has strengthened in recent months. And with inflation already above the central bank’s 2% target, the likelihood of another rate hike is only getting higher. So far gold’s decline has done little to discourage interest in the ETF market. Holdings of gold-backed exchange traded funds have increased for five consecutive days. Overall, net purchases have reached 2.62m ounces, according to Bloomberg data.

Chart of the Day

The start of the winter heating season in Europe typically sees withdrawals from storage facilities ramp up sharply. The higher than normal temperatures so far have delayed the start to sizeable draws. However, if a normal temperatures through winter were to occur, its possible we could see storage levels falls to close to zero.

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Summary

The energy sector remained on edge, as Middle East peace talks faltered. Industrial metals gained on renewed supply side issues.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Central bank speakers: Fabio Panetta (ECB) speaks in Turin; Katharine Braddick (BOE Deputy Governor) speaks at the City Regulators Dinner in London; Shin Hyun Song (BOK Governor) press conference following the rate decision.

• Economic data: Eurozone - consumer confidence, new car registrations; Hong Kong - CPI, unemployment; Mexico - unemployment; New Zealand - CPI; Philippines - rate decision; South Korea - rate decision; Switzerland - SNB summary of Sept. 24 rate decision; Turkey - rate decision; US - Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims (8:30am NY / 1:30pm UK / 11:30pm AEDT).

• Commodities reports: Singapore weekly onshore oil-product stockpiles; Insights Global weekly ARA oil-product inventories; EIA weekly US natural gas inventories (10:30am NY / 3:30pm UK / 1:30am AEDT 23 Oct).

• Events: IPEC Marine Fuel Conference in Zhoushan; Barclays Asia Forum in Singapore; EU trade ministers informal meeting begins in Dublin (through 23 Oct); Evident AI Symposium in New York.

• Market data: Santos 3Q report; Valero Energy 3Q results; Bloom Energy 3Q results; Barclays results.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil prices edged higher as attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten supplies. The UK Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report of a ship being struck near Oman and that a vessel was hit near Iraq. Speculation about joint US-Israeli attack plans grew, after US Defence Secretary Hegseth made an unannounced visit to Israel. Iranian-backed Houthis continue to attack Saudi Arabia. Multiple air-raid alerts sounded in Riyadh overnight, with a Saudi-led coalition saying it had intercepted a missile bound for the capital. The impact of the increased hostilities has been tempered by a renewed efforts toward a diplomatic solution. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said efforts to resolve the crisis are ongoing, but Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said the US must lift its blockade and show it is serious about ending the war, otherwise there is little reason to expect progress.

The disruption to supply continues to weigh on global inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude oil inventories fell by 3,060kbbl last week, holding at their lowest seasonal levels since 2014. The decline was driven by slower imports. US crude oil production also tumbled 410kb/d to 13.27mb/d last week, after Hurricane Isaias shut-in around 5.2mb/d during the week. US refineries are still running, with their utilisation rates at 93%, the highest seasonal level since 1997.

European natural gas futures hit EUR90/MWh for the first time in almost four years, as the prospect of a recovery in supply from the Middle East faded amid renewed hostilities. This is creating concerns that depleted inventories will not be enough to get through the northern winter. Storage facilities are only 75% full in the region. Germany’s situation is worse, with storage at just over 61%. North Asia LNG prices hit a four-year high.

Nickel prices surged, after Chinese producers in Indonesia promised to cut production to support the market. The coordinated action involves the biggest nickel producers in the country. The high-pressure acid leach plants will reduce output of mixed hydroxide precipitate, a key element in electric vehicle batteries, by around 20%. Nickel prices have been under pressure this year due to slow demand growth for batteries, with global sales of EVs in August down 1% y/y. High costs for inputs such as sulphur have been squeezing margins for refineries. Water shortages due to the El Niño weather system have also caused disruptions. Aluminium gained as the Middle East conflict continues to restrict supplies. Emirates Global Aluminium said it has only been able to restore half of its capacity at a smelter that was damaged during the conflict. It says it is on track for a resumption to full capacity by the first quarter next year. However, disruptions to trade through the Strait of Hormuz could mean its metal cannot reach the international market. Copper struggled to keep its head above water, as the boost to sentiment from the AI spending boom fades.

Gold held steady just above USD4,100/oz as oil’s rally cooled and US Treasuries retreated. Traders are now focused on the Fed’s next move. In a speech last week. Chair Warsh did little to dispel expectations that it will keep interest rates steady.

Chart of the Day

China appears to be back buying sizeable levels of crude oil. Weekly imports have reached 9.4mb/d according to ship tracking data. That’s down only 2.1mb/d y/y. The resumption of buying from the world’s biggest importer could spell trouble for the global oil market. Its ability to cut demand earlier this year went a long way from buffering the impact of disruptions to Middle East supply. China could take many years to restocking those depleted stockpiles.

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Summary

The energy sector fell after Middle East peace talks resumed. Industrial metals gained as sentiment was boosted by signs of stronger demand.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Central bank speakers: Andrew Bailey (BOE Governor) OMFIF fireside chat in London; Andrew Hauser (RBA Deputy Governor) at Citi Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference.

• Economic data: Colombia - trade; Indonesia - rate decision; Israel - rate decision; Japan - trade; Namibia - rate decision; South Africa - retail sales, CPI; UK - CPI; US - MBA mortgage applications.

• Commodities reports: China September output data for base metals and oil products; Genscape weekly crude inventories for Europe’s ARA region (9:00am London / 4:00am NY / 8:00pm AEDT); EIA weekly US oil inventories, supply and demand (10:30am NY / 3:30pm UK / 1:30am AEDT 22 Oct).

• Events: EU Oil Coordination Group meeting; Inpex investor day; Tesla earnings; Meta earnings; IBM earnings; Nvidia GTC Berlin keynote address by Jensen Huang; ECB enters pre-meeting quiet period; South Africa Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement.

• Market data: Woodside 3Q results; NextEra Energy 3Q results; Kinder Morgan 3Q results.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil prices moved around as traders pondered renewed peace talks in the Middle East and Russia. Bloomberg reported that the US and Iran were close to an agreement. This followed efforts by Pakistan to revive negotiations, with its Chief of Army Staff, Asim Munir, travelling to Tehran for consultations with Iranian officials. Prices settled after the report was confirmed to be inaccurate by Iran. Ukraine’s President Zelensky said he had a constructive dialogue with the US in Oslo. A US envoy is now set to fly to Russia to meet with officials for talks. The Trump administration has been keen to dampen hostilities in the Middle East and Russia, leading into the mid-term elections, as energy prices are a key issue for voters.

Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continued. Iran’s IRGC said that two “non-compliant” oil tankers struck mines in Hormuz. At least 18 vessels have been hit over the past two weeks, according to ship tracking data from Kpler. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said they launched several attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military targets over the past 48 hours. While Persian Gulf oil flows improved in the second week of October, the recovery looks under threat amid the increased attacks, with preliminary data pointing to another slowdown.

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia fell following reports of negotiations in the Middle East. This was exacerbated by some traders taking profits following the recent rally. Nevertheless, prices remain significantly higher than prior to the Middle East conflict, as there appears no clear end to the supply disruptions. The intermittent attacks on LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf are keeping producers such as Qatar from ramping up exports despite rising demand. The lack of LNG is prompting some countries to lean towards alternative fuels. South Korea’s energy minister said the country would use more coal and nuclear power this winter due to the lack of natural gas.

Copper gained, as the market faces supply side issues just as demand appears to be rising. Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, is facing its lowest output in 23 years. Its finance minister expects output to fall 7% this year, with only a minor recovery in 2027. Operational issues are increasing as aging mines are battered by extreme weather and accidents. At least seven workers have died at Chilean mines over the past month. Labour disputes are rising, as workers seek a larger share of the boom in prices. This and a strong outlook for demand may leave the market tight. Commodity trader, Trafigura, said the hyperscaler spending plans suggest copper demand for AI infrastructure would reach as much as 3mt in two years. That’s up from about 1mt this year. Nickel found some support after reports that Chinese producers are looking to cut output after the 20% fall in prices over the past five months.

Gold was under pressure, as investors ponder the outlook for monetary policy. The precious metal initially found some support as energy prices sold off on reports of peace talks. Those gains were quickly given back, as the USD and bond yields pushed lower after oil prices recovered. Traders are currently pricing in a 15% chance of another 25bp increase at the Fed’s October meeting.

Chart of the Day

High oil prices have rekindled hopes that the electric vehicle sector would see a resurgence in demand. Anecdotal evidence suggests that has been the case, with reports of increased interest from consumers. However, that has not been backed up by the data. After a relatively positive start to the year, global EV sales growth has tailed off over the past few months. In September, sales were down -1% y/y. This may be due to consumers keeping hold of current cars longer than normal due to broader rising cost of living pressures.

5in5 with ANZ Podcast

Summary

Rising unrest in the Middle East continues to push the energy sector higher. Precious metals fell amid high bond yields. Industrial metals were mixed.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: India.

• Central bank speakers: Megan Greene (BOE) speaks at the LSE Economics Society in London.

• Economic data: China - loan prime rates; Germany - ZEW expectations survey; Hungary - rate decision; Mexico - international reserves; Spain - trade; Taiwan - export orders; UK - jobless claims, unemployment; US - housing starts, building permits, pending home sales; US - ADP weekly employment change (8:15am NY / 1:15pm UK / 11:15pm AEDT).

• Commodities reports: China September trade data (third batch), including country-level energy and commodity trade breakdowns; API weekly US oil inventories (4:30pm NY / 9:30pm UK / 7:30am AEDT 21 Oct).

• Events: FT Energy Transition Summit concludes in London; BNEF Summit London concludes; Carbon Capture Technology World Expo begins in Hamburg (through 22 Oct); APEC Finance Ministers’ Meeting begins in Hong Kong (through 21 Oct); Berlin Global Dialogue begins (through 22 Oct); Invest in Germany Summit in Berlin; Sultan Haitham state visit to the UK begins; Citi Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference begins in Sydney (through 21 Oct); Mynt Inc. (GCash parent) listing in Manila; 2026-27 NBA regular season begins; WTI November futures expiry.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil prices pushed higher, sparked by rising supply risks in the Middle East. Brent crude traded above USD110/bbl after Iran said it has no choice but to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. This comes amid a marked increase in attacks on vessels in the Persian Gulf. Iran state media reported that an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern Strait of Hormuz. While Persian Gulf oil flows improved in the second week of October, the recovery looks under threat amid the increased attacks, with preliminary data pointing to another slowdown. The risk of supply disruptions across the broader Middle East are also rising as the Iran-backed Houthi’s increase their attacks on Saudi Arabia. Reuters reported that the group said they had carried out attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military targets, including an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha airport.

The Trump administration continues to talk up its efforts to support oil flows, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying they had recovered to about 80% of their pre-conflict levels. The issue is against a backdrop of severely depleted inventories, nothing short of a complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will alleviate the tightness in the market. Efforts to support the fuel market are likely to fall short. President Trump said that the US has reached a diesel export deal with Russia. However, US lawmakers have introduced a bill to block the fuel purchases. Even so, Russia is struggling to maintain even minimal exports as Ukrainian drones continue to hit refineries.

Natural gas markets in Europe and Asia remained on edge as supply risks mount. The UK Maritime Trade Operations received a report that an LNG tanker was fired on near Yemen over the weekend, adding to worries that supply flows from the Persian Gulf could slow further. This saw European benchmark futures hit their highest level since December 2022 amid concerns about low storage levels and a fragile winter supply balance. So far, warmer than normal temperatures have tempered the normal winter draw on inventories. However, models show the weather remains volatile, and there is no end in sight to the Middle East conflict. The recent uptick in attacks is also creating urgency among Asian buyers. With fears that further supply disruption could tighten the market further, buyers have been increasingly active in the spot market, snapping up any available cargo.

The mood in the base metals sector was bolstered by a broader pick-up in risk appetite across markets. However, copper struggled to benefit as doubts over the US copper tariff trade emerged. The spread between futures on the COMEX and the LMG has collapsed recently, as traders grow wary of any US tariff on imports being implemented. This could lead to a surge in metal from the US hitting international markets. Nevertheless, ongoing supply side issues are likely to keep the downside limited. A major copper smelter in South Korea may decide to cut output as a global shortage of copper concentrate squeezes margins. The International Copper Study Group cut its forecast for global mine supply growth this year to 1.3%, its third consecutive downgrade.

Gold prices are under pressure, as bond yields remain elevated. The strength has come from a selloff in French bonds following a weekend of violent unrest. Liquidity was also low, with traders unsure over the interest rate outlook.

Chart of the Day

Despite resilient economic growth, oil demand remains in contraction in 2026. Historically, stronger manufacturing activity, freight volumes, tourism and industrial production have generally been associated with stronger petroleum consumption. There has been a suggestion that global oil demand is becoming less responsive to Gross Domestic Output growth, due to slowing Chinese oil intensity, vehicle efficiency, electric vehicle penetration and biofuel use. But its unlikely it accounts for sharp contraction in the elasticity seen this year. This is largely due to shortages across the fuel markets, which has constrained availability for consumers

5in5 with ANZ Podcast

Summary

Supply risks pushed up energy prices last week. The rest of the complex suffered, as risk appetite remained subdued.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: US (Columbus Day); Japan (Sports Day, stock and bond markets closed); Canada; Brazil; Venezuela

• Central bank speakers: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (NABE annual meeting); BOE MPC member Catherine Mann (NABE annual meeting); BOE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden (Atlantic Council interview on digital assets, tokenisation and G20 presidency)

• Economic data: Denmark: CPI; India: CPI; Mexico: Industrial Production; Russia: Trade

• Commodities reports: Daily: LME inventory and warrant data (~UK 9:00pm/AEDT 7:00am next day); Daily: SHFE warrant change data (after market close)

• Events: IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings begin in Bangkok (through 18 Oct); WPC Energy Congress, Riyadh (through 15 Oct); BNEF Forum Abu Dhabi; Gazelec gas and power conference, Paris (through 14 Oct); African Energy Week, Cape Town (through 16 Oct); Paris Motor Show begins (through 18 Oct); Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences; EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, Luxembourg; EU environment ministers meeting, Luxembourg; Warsaw Security Forum (through 13 Oct); Ukraine parliament votes on IMF/EU-related legislation (through 14 Oct); DBS Asia Future Forward Conference, Singapore; OCP Global Summit, San Jose (through 15 Oct); CAIS Summit, Beverly Hills (through 15 Oct)

• Market data: Galp 3Q trading update; ICE gasoil October futures expire

• Public holidays: Hong Kong.

• Central bank speakers: Frank Elderson (ECB), Fabio Panetta (ECB), Eli Remolona (BSP) at the Green Swan Conference in Manila; Pan Gongsheng (PBOC) expected to speak at the Financial Street Forum in Beijing; Christopher Kent (RBA Assistant Governor) fireside chat at Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Conference in Sydney.

• Economic data: Canada - CPI; China - GDP, property prices, retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment; Israel - unemployment; Japan - tertiary industry index; Malaysia - trade, CPI; New Zealand - trade; Philippines - balance of payments.

• Commodities reports: China September industrial output details, including coal production, natural gas production, power generation, crude oil production and refinery throughput.

• Events: Vanir Japan Power Week begins in Tokyo (through 22 Oct); FT Energy Transition Summit begins in London (through 20 Oct); BNEF Summit London begins (through 20 Oct); Green Swan Conference in Manila; Financial Street Forum Annual Conference begins in Beijing (through 22 Oct); World Bank Global AI and Digital Summit begins in Seoul (through 22 Oct); Bund Summit begins in Shanghai (through 22 Oct); UN Biodiversity Conference begins in Yerevan (through 30 Oct); Alberta provincial referendum; WTI November calendar spread options expire.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Growing concerns over sustained tightness in crude oil markets saw prices surge last week. The global benchmark, Brent crude, touched USD110/bbl on Friday, its highest since May. Government efforts to offset shortages are increasingly falling short. The plan to accelerate releases from G7-countries’ stockpiles was dismissed as too late and it doesn’t add to the market as they were already expected. There is also growing doubt about President Trump’s deal to release more Russian diesel into global markets, as US lawmakers introduced a bill to block the transaction. And ongoing attacks on Russian refineries makes the task of producing diesel more difficult. The Ryazan refinery suspended operations at one of its main processing units following a drone attack on Friday. Russian diesel and gasoil exports had already collapsed to about 146kb/d in early October, its lowest level since 2016 according to Vortexa data.

The market is also wary of another escalation in hostilities in the Middle East. The Yemen-based Houthis launched attacks on Saudi Arabia, threating energy infrastructure in the region. Iran’s attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continue unabated. Reports emerged that last week that the US has drawn up strike plans that include using a large-yield bomb after the mid-term elections.

European natural gas prices rose sharply last week, as low storage raised concern about its preparedness for the winter heating needs. Facilities were just 74.1% full in mid-October, their lowest seasonal level since records began in 2011. The European Commission is subsequently examining plans for a dedicated emergency gas reserve across the EU. North Asia LNG prices gained last week as buyers became concerned about the availability of cargo on the spot market. Normally, price sensitive buyers in India would be increasing purchases on strong demand from the power sector and fertiliser producers.

Gold was resilient despite sharply higher US yields and a stronger USD, highlighting a shift in investor behaviour. US 10y real yields have risen nearly 50bp since September to around 3%, yet gold has declined less than 5%. Investors increasingly view higher yields as reflecting concerns over US debt sustainability rather than stronger economic growth, reinforcing gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier. Investment demand remains robust. Gold ETF holdings rose by 187t over August–September, with inflows broadening across developed and emerging markets. Chinese demand is providing a floor, with imports rising 72% y/y in the first eight months of 2026 amid low domestic interest rates and limited investment alternatives. Central-bank buying is another important source of demand, with purchases estimated at 250–300t in Q3. However, elevated yields and a firm USD remain near-term headwinds and raise the risk of ETF liquidation.

Base metals rebounded on Friday, as sentiment improved following a volatile week. Stronger than expected inflation and a selloff in AI stocks weighed on risk appetite. This returned the focus to supply side issues in the market. Copper supply has been under threat due to labour strikes in Chile. The threat of tariffs on US copper imports is also tightening supplies on the international market, with metal continuing to flow into US warehouses.

Chart of the Day

Gold has shown resilience in the face of rising yields and a stronger USD. US 10y real yields have risen nearly 50bp since September to around 3%, yet gold has declined by less than 5% with prices staying above USD4,100/oz. Historically, a 1% rise in real yields has tended to lead to a more than 15% fall in gold, as higher yields increase the cost of holding gold.

5in5 with ANZ Podcast

Summary

Precious metals rebounded as bond yields fell. Energy also rose on supply disruptions. Industrial metals fell on concerns of tighter monetary policy.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: Thailand

• Central bank speakers: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva); Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem; BOE Governor Andrew Bailey; BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida; RBNZ Governor Anna Breman

• Economic data: Canada: Housing Starts; Eurozone: CPI; Italy: CPI; Malaysia: GDP; New Zealand: Food Prices, BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI; Singapore: Trade; South Korea: Unemployment; US: Industrial Production, Cross-Border Investment, Import Price Index

• Commodities reports: China weekly iron ore port stockpiles; Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly commodities inventories (~NY 3:30am/UK 8:30am/AEDT 6:30pm); Baker Hughes weekly rig count (NY 1:00pm/UK 6:00pm/AEDT 4:00am Sat); CFTC Commitment of Traders report (NY 3:30pm/UK 8:30pm/AEDT 6:30am Sat); ICE Futures Europe Commitment of Traders report (NY 1:30pm/UK 6:30pm/AEDT 4:30am Sat); Angola preliminary December crude export programme; Daily: LME inventory and warrant data (~UK 9:00pm/AEDT 7:00am next day); Daily: SHFE warrant change data (after market close)

• Events: European Council meeting concludes; African Energy Week concludes; Indian Rajya Sabha elections for 12 seats

• Market data: None

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil prices were under pressure early in the session after reports of fresh releases from emergency reserves. The International Energy Agency said member countries agreed to complete the release of 100mbbl outstanding from the plan announced at the start of the Middle East conflict. The countries will accelerate the release, including 20mbbl of diesel “as soon as possible”. In the meantime, hostilities intensify in the Middle East, threatening further supply disruptions. Two Emirati cargo ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz following attacks, according to the Wall Street Journal. The UK Maritime Trade Operations separately issued warnings about two vessels being struck by projectiles while transiting the strait. This is resulting in shipping companies becoming reluctant to collect cargo from key collection points for Persian Gulf crude, such as the Gulf of Oman. Oil tankers with capacity of 37mbbl have stopped or changed course when sailing towards the coast of UAE and Oman, according to Bloomberg ship tracking data.

The sensitivity of smaller supply disruptions amid the backdrop of depleted global inventories was laid bare in the EIA’s weekly report. US crude oil stockpiles declined 8.56mbbl last week, the biggest weekly draw since February, driven by shut-ins from Hurricane Isaias. Strong refinery runs and exports also contributed to the decline. Diesel stockpiles are remarkably tight, with the US having only 102.6mbbl on hand. This is the lowest season level on record.

European natural gas fell as expectations of weaker demand offset supply concerns. Higher than expected temperatures at the start of the heating season are offering some relief for depleted inventories. The cold shift that was forecast to hit the region is now expected to be milder, with warm weather returning as early as next week. North Asia LNG prices held onto gains due to increased activity in the spot market. Korea Gas bought at least two shipments for December-January delivery. Buyers in India are also seeking short-term supply contracts.

Copper fell for a third consecutive session as the prospect of tighter monetary policy rose following the stronger-than-expected US consumer prices. Easing supply concerns also weighed on sentiment. A preliminary agreement with employees looks like it will avert a strike at the giant Escondida copper mine in Chile. However, the impact of copper flows into the US remains a concern. The first trading house has delivered copper to the US Project Vault stockpiles, adding 12kt from the Democratic Republic of Congo. This is part of a USD12bn initiative to build a strategic US reserve of metals for use by civilian industries in times of shortage.

Iron ore traded below USD90/t for the first time since 2024 as fundamentals continue to weaken. At 651mt in the first eight months of the year, Chinese crude steel output was the lowest for the period since 2018. With thin margins for steel mills, there is no incentive to rebuild inventories of the steel making raw material.

Gold was supported by lower US Treasury yields, as investors sought safety in bonds following an equity selloff. The precious metal gained as much as 1.4% recouping losses from the previous session.

Chart of the Day

The US has seen a surge in metal over the past 12 months as concerns over a tariff on US imports have risen. While most commodity exchanges have seen copper stockpiles remain relatively unchanged over this period, the US-based Comex Exchange has its holdings increase by 740% since the start of 2025.

5in5 with ANZ Podcast

Summary

The energy sector rose as attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East intensified. Precious metals slumped after stronger than expected inflation in the US.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: None

• Central bank speakers: ECB President Christine Lagarde; ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone; ECB Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch; BOE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden; BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill; BOJ Policy Board member Junko Koeda; Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack

• Economic data: Australia: Unemployment; Eurozone: Industrial Production; France: CPI; Israel: Trade, CPI; Japan: Machinery Orders, Industrial Production; Nigeria: CPI; Philippines: Overseas Remittances; Saudi Arabia: CPI; UK: GDP, Industrial Production; US: Retail Sales, PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, Empire State Manufacturing

• Commodities reports: Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data; Insights Global weekly ARA oil-product inventories; EIA Weekly US Natural Gas Inventories (NY 10:30am/UK 3:30pm/AEDT 1:30am Fri); EIA Weekly US Oil Inventories, Supply and Demand Report (NY 12:00pm/UK 5:00pm/AEDT 3:00am Fri); Antofagasta production report; Daily: LME inventory and warrant data (~UK 9:00pm/AEDT 7:00am next day); Daily: SHFE warrant change data (after market close)

• Events: EU Leaders’ Summit, Brussels (through 16 Oct); G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Bangkok; WPC Energy Congress, Riyadh (final day); African Energy Week, Cape Town; Singapore International Bunkering Conference & Exhibition (final day); IEA Governing Board meeting concludes; EU Oil Coordination Group meeting; Tesla second-generation Roadster unveiling

• Market data: Ganfeng Lithium earnings; Alcoa earnings; WTI November options expiry; TotalEnergies 3Q indicators.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil rallied as hostilities intensified in the Middle East, threatening further supply disruptions. The Iranian-backed Houthis continued drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia, hitting the headquarters of the state-owned oil producer. Oil production hasn’t been affected, despite damage to buildings containing the operations management office. Meanwhile, attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf continued unabated. Moreover, Iran’s focus is shifting beyond the Strait of Hormuz, with attacks on vessels in the Gulf of Oman and around the port of Fujairah becoming more common. This could threaten not only the smaller vessels that are part of the shuttle system that has enabled strong flows of oil, but the very large crude carriers taking oil to its destinations. Hopes that an energy ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict would ease constraints on diesel supplies were dashed, after further attacks on Russian refineries. Russia accused Ukraine of attacking two oil refineries in the Saratov and Ryazan regions on Wednesday. The latter is home to one of the largest refineries in the country, with a capacity of around 400kb/d.

Sentiment wasn’t helped by the International Energy Agency’s dour assessment of the conflict’s impact on the oil market. Global observed oil inventories edged down by 10mbbl in September as a further 113mbbl decline in on-land stocks was offset by a rise in oil on water. Non-OECD crude stocks slumped by 76mbbl, with China accounting for 78% of the decline, while OECD inventories dropped by 37mbbl. Global stocks were 509mbbl (-2.4 mb/d) lower than at the end of February.

Asian LNG prices pushed above USD29/MMBtu on heightened concerns over supply. Chinese purchases of LNG supported prices. China National Offshore Oil Corp purchased several cargoes for delivery in October and November, according to traders. This suggests the world’s top buyer is beginning to replenish inventories ahead of winter. Imports in September were subdued, reaching 10.9mt (-1.7% y/y). This spells trouble for European buyers, who will be competing for increasingly scarce LNG cargoes. Its storage facilities are only 74% full, which is significantly below levels required to meet demand over winter.

Gold slumped after rate hike concerns ramped up following the stronger than expected US consumer price data. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September, driven by rising fuel costs. The precious metal fell more than 1.6% to threaten breaking back below USD4,000/oz.

Copper briefly threatened to touch another record high amid tight market conditions. Europe’s top producer, Aurubis AG, stated that huge shipments of metal to the US are significantly reducing the availability of metal elsewhere. This has been driven by concerns that the US may place tariffs on refined metal imports. This has seen the company increase its premiums for customers in 2027 to a record USD347/t, up 10% on this year’s level. The gains were supported by the threat of strikes in Chile. However, the prospect of tighter monetary policies saw the metal give up those gains by the end of the session.

Chart of the Day

While supply side issues have been a big driver of record high copper prices, demand is also playing its part. Global manufacturing has shown strong growth in recent months, with the world purchasing manufacturing index recently hitting 53. This is partly driven by the AI sector, where spending on data centres and energy infrastructure has been strong. This is likely to continue to support demand for a copper, a key component in this infrastructure.

5in5 with ANZ Podcast

Summary

Gains in the energy sector were more muted as profit taking emerged. The rest of the complex ended lower amid a risk-off tone across markets.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: None

• Central bank speakers: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem (IIF meeting); Banque de France Governor Emmanuel Moulin; Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin; Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman; ECB President Christine Lagarde; ECB Executive Board members Frank Elderson and Isabel Schnabel; ECB Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch; BOE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden; ECB Governing Council member Ante Zigman; BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill

• Economic data: Australia: Westpac Leading Index; China: Trade, CPI, PPI; India: Wholesale Prices; Japan: Money Stock; Poland: CPI; Singapore: GDP; Spain: CPI; Sweden: CPI; US: CPI, Fed Beige Book, MBA Mortgage Applications

• Commodities reports: IEA Monthly Oil Market Report (NY 4:00am/UK 9:00am/AEDT 7:00pm); China September trade data including crude oil, natural gas and coal imports, oil product imports and exports; Genscape weekly ARA crude inventory report (NY 4:00am/UK 9:00am/AEDT 7:00pm); API weekly US oil inventories (NY 4:30pm/UK 9:30pm/AEDT 7:30am Thu); Rio Tinto production report; Daily: LME inventory and warrant data (~UK 9:00pm/AEDT 7:00am next day); Daily: SHFE warrant change data (after market close)

• Events: Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting begins (through 16 Oct); Russian Energy Week, Moscow (through 16 Oct); WPC Energy Congress, Riyadh; African Energy Week, Cape Town; International AI Summit, Dublin; FT Metals & Mining Summit, London (through 16 Oct); Singapore International Bunkering Conference & Exhibition; Financial Review Energy & Climate Summit, Sydney (final day); Carbon Forward Expo, London (through 15 Oct); National Gas Energy Forum, London; Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and ASML earnings; JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon speaks at Economic Club of Chicago; BOJ market operations meeting

• Market data: Aker BP 3Q trading update

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil prices eased lower as profit taking emerged following the strong gains over the past week. In the meantime, tensions across the Middle East remain elevated. There was little respite in the fighting between the Houthi militant group and Saudi Arabia, with the kingdom intercepting more missiles and drones launched from Yemen. A Saudi-led coalition later warned people in the vicinity of an oil site in Sanaa to leave the area for their safety. Iranian attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz showed no signs of easing. According to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations, 24 ships were hit in the two weeks to 11 October. The next most intense period of attacks was during the first two weeks of March, when 13 ships were hit. Following oil flows from the Persian Gulf reaching nearly 80% of pre-conflict levels in late September, the increased attacks on tankers have seen flows falter. Ship-tracking data suggest crude exports slowed in early October and weakened further in the second week of the month, while tanker shortages, and elevated freight rates are increasingly disrupting regional trade flows. This is being compounded by the US blockade of Iranian ports. Iran’s seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September from a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels ⁠per day at the start of that month and have ​stayed there, as of 5 October, according to Vortexa.

Concerns that LNG supply shortages may persist longer than expected saw Southeast Asian buyers emerge on the spot market for cargo. This has seen the 30-day average for net-daily imports in south and southeast Asia climb to its highest since July, according to the ship tracking data. This threatens to tighten the global LNG market and maintain upward pressure on prices that have already hit their highest level in four years. Only an El Niño triggered warm winter in the region offers any respite from the tightness. European prices for natural gas also climbed to their highest level since 2022 due to escalating attacks in the Middle East and low storage levels. The increased appetite by Asian buyers for LNG cargoes could complicate Europe’s efforts to refill its depleted inventories. At only 74% full, they will require significant volumes from the LNG market to meet demand over the northern winter.

Copper struggled to keep its head above water, with the selloff across AI and technology stocks denting enthusiasm for the metal. A slew of warnings about the rapid buildout of data centres have raised concerns that demand for copper may ultimately be impacted. Meanwhile, eyes remain fixed on labour talks in Chile that threaten to disrupt supplies from the world’s biggest producer. A deadline for negotiations at the Escondida copper mine is fast approaching. Workers are seeking a greater share of mining profits as prices rise to record highs. Workers at the Centinela copper mine remain on strike, with unions claiming mine activity has been severely curtailed. The labour tensions add to a string of mine disruptions and production disappointments that have tightened the copper market. This is being exacerbated by the ongoing threat of US tariffs on imports, which has resulted in a pull of metal into the country.

Gold pared losses after the Fed’s John Williams said that while he still sees one more interest rate hike this year, he doesn’t expect further tightening in 2027

Chart of the Day

China’s high-frequency data during the National Day holiday suggest household consumption remains cautious. Domestic tourist trips and tourism spending fell 7.0% y/y and 8.7%, respectively, in headline terms. Spending per trip fell 1.9% to CNY894. Broadly speaking, the Golden Week did not signal a broad-based improvement in China’s consumption. This mirrors the ongoing slowdown in monthly retails sales figures. The nominal growth of China’s retail sales has moderated to 1.1% in the first eight months (vs 2025 4.6% ytd).

Such a slowdown can reduce demand for consumer electronics, appliances and autos, all key sectors for industrial metals such copper. The signal is more concerning considering it is occuring alongside weak fixed-asset investment (FAI) and a soft property market.

5in5 with ANZ Podcast

Summary

Energy gained as tensions in the Middle East rose. Industrial metals gained on supply side issues. Weak demand from Chinese steel mills weighed on bulks.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: Thailand

• Central bank speakers: Fed Governor Christopher Waller (Bloomberg New Economy Forum, New Delhi); Boston Fed President Susan Collins (Regional & Community Bankers Conference); Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (Howard University School of Business); BOE MPC member Megan Greene (Atlantic Council event, Bangkok); ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson (Brussels); ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane (Dublin); Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun Song (IMF Governor Talks)

• Economic data: Argentina: CPI; Australia: RBA Meeting Minutes, NAB Business Confidence; Germany: CPI; Japan: PPI; Mexico: International Reserves; Netherlands: CPI; Turkey: Current Account; US: Existing Home Sales, NFIB Small Business Optimism, Federal Budget Balance

• Commodities reports: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report; LME Commitment of Traders report (metals positions); Daily: LME inventory and warrant data (~UK 9:00pm/AEDT 7:00am next day); Daily: SHFE warrant change data (after market close)

• Events: IMF World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report; WPC Energy Congress, Riyadh; African Energy Week, Cape Town; Singapore International Bunkering Conference & Exhibition (through 15 Oct); Financial Review Energy & Climate Summit, Sydney (through 14 Oct); Bloomberg New Economy Forum, New Delhi (through 15 Oct); Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo earnings; Apple smart-home product launch expected

• Market data: BP 3Q trading statement.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil shrugged off plans for inventory releases to push higher amid renewed threats to supply. Tensions in the Middle East have been rising in recent weeks as Iran intensifies attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf. At least 17 vessels have been attacked since the 28 September. This is raising concerns in the shipping industry that risks taken to transit the strait are becoming too high. This has seen a growing number of supertankers turning away from the Persian Gulf. Ship tracking data shows that at least 10 VLCC approaching the port of Fujairah have stopped or reversed course in recent days. Tensions were heightened as Saudi Arabia said it was dealing with new drone and missile assaults on Monday. This comes as the energy truce that President Trump announced over the weekend appears to be on shaky ground. President Zelensky said Ukraine will carry on strikes against Russia since its energy infrastructure continues to be targeted.

Rising attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz are again constraining oil flows from the Persian Gulf, reversing some of the export recovery seen in recent weeks. Ship-tracking data suggest crude exports slowed in early October and weakened further in the second week of the month, while tanker shortages and elevated freight rates are increasingly disrupting regional trade flows. Despite a modest increase in shipments through Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the Red Sea, exports remain well below pre-conflict levels.

European natural gas futures hit a one month high as colder temperature brings the spectre of rising demand as supply constraints persist. Weather forecasts suggest northwest Europe will experience a cold snap starting next weekend, potentially raising demand for gas. However, its inventories remain well below seasonal levels, with storage facilities only 74% full. Stronger demand will force European buyers to compete for increasingly scarce LNG cargoes. The escalation in tensions in the Middle East also pushed North Asia LNG prices higher. Spot prices are now around USD28/MMBtu, almost three times its pre-conflict level. Qatar LNG exports in October are likely to see a further fall from September levels as the rising number of attacks on vessels forces it to delay its recovery plan.

Copper managed to rise amid optimism that central banks could hold off hiking rates further as rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions anyway. Concerns over further supply side issues were also supportive. In Chile, two workers died after a snow avalanche struck the El Teniente copper mine. The operation had already been halted due to bad weather. Chile’s copper industry is also facing strike action at several operations that threaten to disrupt supply. This includes Centinela, where workers have started a hunger strike over wages and work conditions, and Escondida.

Gold prices fell as investors waited for more economic data for clues on the Fed’s interest rate path.

Iron ore prices edged lower as Chinese steel mills struggle with low profitability. Around 90% of mills are said to be operating at a loss, which is keeping them from building up stockpiles. This comes as global iron ore shipments remain elevated, keeping supply abundant.

Chart of the Day

What is clear is that the recent rise in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is unsustainable given the pressure on the tanker market. The escalation of attacks will only add pressure to shipping capacity. This suggests flows from the Persian Gulf may have peaked, with the risk of declines rising

5in5 with ANZ Podcast

Summary

Energy rose on fears of renewed supply disruptions in the Middle East. Industrial metals gained on stronger Chinese demand. Precious metals also rose.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: US (Columbus Day); Japan (Sports Day, stock and bond markets closed); Canada; Brazil; Venezuela

• Central bank speakers: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (NABE annual meeting); BOE MPC member Catherine Mann (NABE annual meeting); BOE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden (Atlantic Council interview on digital assets, tokenisation and G20 presidency)

• Economic data: Denmark: CPI; India: CPI; Mexico: Industrial Production; Russia: Trade

• Commodities reports: Daily: LME inventory and warrant data (~UK 9:00pm/AEDT 7:00am next day); Daily: SHFE warrant change data (after market close)

• Events: IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings begin in Bangkok (through 18 Oct); WPC Energy Congress, Riyadh (through 15 Oct); BNEF Forum Abu Dhabi; Gazelec gas and power conference, Paris (through 14 Oct); African Energy Week, Cape Town (through 16 Oct); Paris Motor Show begins (through 18 Oct); Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announces Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences; EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, Luxembourg; EU environment ministers meeting, Luxembourg; Warsaw Security Forum (through 13 Oct); Ukraine parliament votes on IMF/EU-related legislation (through 14 Oct); DBS Asia Future Forward Conference, Singapore; OCP Global Summit, San Jose (through 15 Oct); CAIS Summit, Beverly Hills (through 15 Oct)

• Market data: Galp 3Q trading update; ICE gasoil October futures expire

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil prices pushed higher last week amid mounting risks to supply. Attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz continue to rise, with at least 17 attacks since 28 September. US forces also disabled a vessel trying to break through the blockade of Iranian ports, the first such action in several weeks. These attacks are likely to disrupt the strong flows of crude oil that Persian Gulf producers have managed to hit in recent weeks. An escalation in fighting between the Houthi militant group and Saudi Arabia is also raising tensions in the region after the main airport in Riyadh was attacked. This threatens supply flows in the Red Sea, where the Houthis have tried to block Saudi tankers from operating. The attacks are applying upward pressure on freight costs. Hiring a tanker to ship oil from the Arab Gulf to North Asia costs more than USD1m/day, up from USD60k/d in January. In the US, one tanker was booked at a rate equivalent to USD41/bbl.

The risks to supply spread beyond the Middle East, with producers in the Gulf of Mexico shutting in approximately 72% of crude output as Hurricane Isaias pushed towards the US coast. There is also more than 500kb/d of refining capacity that lies in or near the storms projected path. This offset any benefit from Russian diesel hitting global markets. President Trump announced Russia would immediately supply about 13.5mbbl more diesel this month. The US also issued a waiver for previously sanctioned Russian fuel, according to Bloomberg. However, the release of Russian diesel amounts to only a small fraction of its previous levels of exports. It’s likely to provide little respite from the tightness in global markets.

Natural gas prices in Europe and Asia also rose last week amid few signs that flows from the Middle East will resume. Qatar had amassed a fleet of at least 12 empty LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf in recent weeks; however, the recent uptick in attacks is likely to keep them from exiting the gulf. In the meantime, Europe is fretting over low inventories as the heating season commences. The EU may need to cut gas demand by 7% y/y this winter, with storage facilities only 73% full compared with the normal season level of 90%. The high prices in Asia are pushing importers to the sidelines. This had eased pressure on competition for cargo, with several LNG tankers from the US diverting to Europe mid-journey.

Gold ended the week higher as investor demand continues to rise. Inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds have reached a four-year high, according to Bloomberg data. This comes as fiscal pressures around the world raise concerns about debt servicing and money supply. Central banks are also increasing their purchases. The People’s Bank of China expanded its holdings of gold by 740koz in September, which was its 23^rd consecutive month of accumulation. However, limiting the gains are concerns that the Fed will move to hike rates further due to rising inflationary pressures.

Copper led the base metal sector higher last week on signs of improving demand in China. Inventories remain low following a recent weeklong national holiday. This may force consumers to restock ahead of a key demand period. This is supported by the continued rise of the Yangshan premium, a gauge of import demand which hit a four-year high last week. Supply side issues are also hanging over the market. Workers at Brazil’s Centinela mine went on strike, while there are also concerns of strike action at Escondida.

Chart of the Day

The rising prices of fuel is increasingly pushing consumers to look to alternatives. That has seen EV demand pick up strongly this year. China, the world’s biggest producer, has seen its export rise sharply this year. However, the impact in China itself has been more subdued. BYD’s deliveries in China fell 15% in September as the sector struggles with shrinking government EV subsidies and a prolonged property crisis that has sapped consumer spending.

5in5 with ANZ Podcast

Summary

Energy rose on fears of renewed disruptions to supply from the Middle East. The subsequent hit to risk appetite pushed industrial metals lower.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Public holidays: South Korea; Taiwan

• Central bank speakers: BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos; ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel; ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone; ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch; Boston Fed President Susan Collins; Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron

• Economic data: Brazil - CPI; Canada - Unemployment Rate, Employment Change; Italy - industrial production; Japan - household spending; Malaysia - industrial production; Norway - CPI, PPI; Poland - central bank meeting minutes; Russia - CPI; Turkey - industrial production; US - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

• Commodities reports: Shanghai Futures Exchange weekly commodities inventories; Baker Hughes weekly rig count (NY 1:00pm / UK 6:00pm / AEDT 4:00am Sat); CFTC Commitment of Traders report (NY 3:30pm / UK 8:30pm / AEDT 6:30am Sat); ICE Europe Commitment of Traders report (UK 6:30pm / AEDT 5:30am Sat)

• Events: EU Economic & Financial Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg; European Union finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg; Nobel Peace Prize announcement; Sovereign ratings reviews for UK, Belgium, Ghana and Nigeria

• Market data: Delta Air Lines earnings; Fast Retailing earnings; PepsiCo earnings; Qatar National Bank earnings; Seven & i earnings; Tata Consultancy Services earnings; Tesco earnings; Repsol 3Q trading statement; Saudi Aramco November official selling prices (early month release).

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil prices rallied, as Iranian attacks raised the prospect of increased hostilities in the Middle East. The pace of attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz increased in recent days, with the UK Maritime Trade Operations reporting nine attacks in the waterway so far this month. Recent incidents include a strike against a tanker off Qatar, while a vessel was hit north of Madinat ash Shamal, the first attack within the Persian Gulf itself in about a month. Tensions were also heightened by reports that the US was planning on resuming military action against Iran. Earlier this month, the WSJ reported the US was sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East. Elsewhere, Iran-backed Houthis struck two airports in Saudi Arabia as the group intensifies fighting.

Any renewed hostilities threaten to disrupt the recovery in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz that has emerged in recent weeks. Fears of supply disruptions were magnified by the first Atlantic hurricane bearing down on the US Gulf. Producers in the Gulf of Mexico have shut in more than 510kb/d of crude output, about a quarter of supply in the region. The storm is expected to make landfall by the weekend. Brent crude oil was up as much as 6% during the session, before giving back some of the gains after Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the midterm elections on 3 November.

Natural gas markets in Europe and Asia remained on edge amid the increased attacks by Iran. European natural gas futures were up more than 3% after The Atlantic reported the White House had asked the Pentagon to develop options to strikes against Iran. Those gains reversed following Trump’s comments on the timing of any military action. Nevertheless, the rising tension threatens to quell hope that Qatar may resume transits of LNG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. It has amassed a fleet of at least 12 empty LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf in recent weeks, with the capacity to hold 1.1mt of LNG, or roughly 2% of the carrying capacity of the entire global tanker fleet. However, with a Greek-owned LNG tanker struck earlier this week, the prospect of exports resuming in the near term is low.

Copper led the base metal sector lower, as rising energy prices reduced investor’s risk appetite. This was compounded by a selloff on the tech-heavy Nasdaq exchange, amid renewed concerns over the scale of AI spending. Nevertheless, copper is near record levels, supported by supply side issues. Workers at Chile’s Centinela mine are on strike. There are also concerns of strike action at the Escondida mine. Copper found some support earlier in the session, as Chinese traders returned from a weeklong holiday in a buoyant mood. Reports of restocking are prevalent.

Gold edged up despite the prospect of more rate hikes hanging over the market. The Fed’s Waller said further rate hikes will probably be needed, but officials have some flexibility on timing. Traders are pricing in a roughly 80% chance of a hike in December. Instead, sentiment was buoyed by the reopening of China’s markets. Traders are hopeful that the People’s Bank of China will continue adding to its gold reserves. Its holdings expanded by 740koz in September, which was its 23rd consecutive month of accumulation.

Chart of the Day

Unplanned disruptions to mine supply has been a dominate feature in the copper market over the past decade. These events have gone a long way to weighing on growth in copper mine supply and keeping the market relatively tight. However, 2026 has seen the lowest level of mine supply disruptions in the past 20 years due to events such as weather events, earthquakes, technical issues or strike action. Unfortunately that hasn’t helped the industry match to strong demand from new sectors related to the AI boom.

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Summary

Energy rose, as attacks on vessels in the Middle East continued. Supply risks pushed copper higher. Gold fell, as higher bond yields weighed on demand.

Prices and commentary accurate as of 07:00 Sydney/05:00 Singapore/17:00(-1d) New York/22:00(-1d) London.

Ahead Today

• Central bank speakers: Fed Governor Christopher Waller; BOE Governor Andrew Bailey; St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari; ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane; BOE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli; BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill; BOE MPC member Megan Greene; Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache

• Economic data: Chile - CPI; Eurozone - ECB Meeting Minutes; Japan - current account balance; Mexico - CPI, central bank meeting minutes; Romania - rate decision; South Africa - manufacturing production; Taiwan - trade; Uruguay - rate decision; US - wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims (NY 8:30am / UK 1:30pm / AEDT 11:30pm)

• Commodities reports: Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data; Spain Cores natural gas imports/exports data (August); BTC Azeri Light November loading programme; Insights Global ARA oil-product inventories; EIA weekly US natural gas inventories (NY 10:30am / UK 3:30pm / AEDT 1:30am Fri)

• Events: EU-China trade talks begin (through 9 Oct); Istanbul Economic Forum begins (through 9 Oct); Euro-area finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg; Italian government meeting with refining industry representatives; Evolen Annual Energy Conference concludes; Nobel Prize in Literature announcement.

• Listen to today’s 5in5 with ANZ podcast for more on the global economy and markets.

Market Commentary

Crude oil swung from gains to losses as traders weighed increasing strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz againstincreased flows. The UK Maritime Trade Operations has reported at least nine attacks in the key waterway so far this month. That’s half the number it recorded for the entire month of September. In the past, such attacks have resulted in a reduction in shipments from the Persian Gulf. This time around, producers appear to be willing to take the risk of their vessels being damaged, as there is no alternative way to get their oil to international markets.

Ship tracking data showed that crude oil exports reached over 18mb/d in the last week of September. Most of that was recorded coming from the UAE, which has become an integral part of a shuttle system that has allowed other producers to get their oil through the strait. However, while crude oil markets are seeing a reprieve, refined fuels remain tight. European diesel futures rose nearly 7%, as shortages persist. Global distillate inventories are well below their normal seasonal levels, with acute tightness in the US and Europe. The recent plan by the G7 to release stock from inventories is unlikely to have a lasting effect. The release will most likely be made up of stock as yet unreleased from the IEA’s initial 400mbbl release plan at the start of the Middle East conflict. As such, the announcement is likely not an commitment to incrementally draw further on strategic stocks. The mechanics of releasing petroleum products from strategic reserves means that may be more challenging than releases of crude oil. So actual deliveries may trail behind commitments. Ultimately, strategic stock releases can augment supply flows temporarily but do not create new production capacity.

European natural gas held near a two-week high as increasing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz erased hopes of an imminent pick-up in supplies. Earlier in the session, hope rose on reports that Qatar had amassed a fleet of 12 LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf, a sign it was preparing to boost shipments. However, with Iranian attacks intensifying, the likelihood of these vessels transiting the strait appears low. Earlier this week, a Greek-owned LNG tanker was hit by an unidentified object while sailing through the strait, according to the state-run Athens News Agency. North Asia LNG prices also gained following the news of the attack. Spot prices are now more than double pre-conflict levels, with subsequent sluggish demand from major importers likely to limit further price gains.

Copper rose as strike action in Chile threatens to disrupt supplies. Workers at the Centinela mine began a strike, with output likely to be impacted within two weeks if it continues. This comes amid contract negotiations and a fatality at the Escondida mine. The renewed supply risks add to a market already fretting over shortages triggered by concerns over US stockpiling in anticipation of a levy on imports.

Gold fell as higher bond yields and a stronger USD weighed on investor demand. However, the losses were limited bystrong buying by central banks. The People’s Bank of China expanded its reserves by 740koz in September. That was the 23rd month of accumulation. Among the biggest gold buyers in the world, it stepped up purchases in recent months after prices fell.

Chart of the Day

The market’s expectations of fundamentals over the next 6–12 months remain at the low end of the extremely tight range (1.5‒2.5). This supports the current elevated crude oil prices despite the increasing amount of oil being exported from the Persian Gulf.

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