Crude Oil + 12.9%

Silver - 23.5%

Gold - 9.7%

The markets are always leaving clues. The challenge is learning to recognize them, understand what they are telling us, and act when opportunity presents itself.

This past week delivered some excellent examples of why pattern recognition, trend analysis, and disciplined execution belong at the heart of every active trader’s methodology.

In ES futures, we identified support, caught a powerful rally, and then recognized the warning signs that shifted the outlook from bullish to bearish. Both the long and short VRBO setups reached their full 2R profit objectives. That’s the power of having a plan and letting the market confirm it.

But this isn’t just about ES. Across crude oil, gold, silver, copper, soybeans, Bitcoin, and bonds, different markets are revealing different opportunities. Some are trending decisively. Others are approaching critical support, testing resistance, or consolidating within established trading ranges.

For traders, these conditions offer an important lesson: You don’t need to predict every market move. You need to recognize the patterns, align your trades with the prevailing trend, and manage your risk.

With more than 35 years of experience in the commodity markets, I’ve learned that the best opportunities often emerge when price action, trend, and pattern converge.

This weekend’s Update identifies where I see those opportunities developing, which patterns deserve attention, and where patience may be the most profitable position of all.

Let’s read the clues, follow the trends, and prepare for the week ahead.

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ES Futures (October 30, 2026) — Bearish Trend Break Signals Potential for Further Downside

Current Market Regime

• Long-Term: Bearish

• Intermediate-Term: Bearish

• Short-Term: Bearish

• Day Trade: Bearish

Market Recap: From Support-Driven Rally to Bearish Reversal

Last weekend, our analysis identified the low of the October 16 Master Bar at 7,676 as a critical support level. Following an earlier penetration and subsequent recovery, the market demonstrated sufficient buying interest to establish a bullish near-term bias.

The resulting VRBO long triggered at 7,731, with a 2R profit objective of 7,813. ES subsequently advanced to 7,819, exceeding our target.

By midweek, however, the technical picture began to deteriorate. Wednesday’s Clear-Out above the October 16 Master Bar high signaled a potential exhaustion of buying pressure and prompted a shift in our directional bias.

That shift proved timely. Thursday’s VRBO short triggered at 7,668, and ES subsequently reached the 2R profit objective at 7,588 during Friday’s session.

The key takeaway: Identifying the transition between bullish and bearish conditions—and adjusting exposure accordingly—was central to capturing opportunities on both sides of the market.

Current Market Outlook: Trend Breakdown Raises Downside Risk

Friday’s session produced a decisive Yum-Yum breakdown beneath both the October 16 Master Bar low and the long-term trend level at 7,654.

This represents the first confirmed breakdown below the long-term trend since early March, making it a significant technical development. The accompanying Yum-Yum pattern strengthens the bearish interpretation.

The broader technical structure also warrants attention. A Head-and-Shoulders topping formation has triggered, establishing a measured downside objective near 7,470.

While measured-move targets are not forecasts or guarantees, this pattern provides a framework for evaluating the potential magnitude of a further decline.

Tactical Roadmap: Sell the Rally

Our primary scenario anticipates a countertrend rebound toward the broken long-term trend at 7,654.

This level now becomes a key technical reference point. Former support can become resistance following a breakdown, making the area a potential location to evaluate renewed selling pressure.

Rather than initiating short positions indiscriminately following Friday’s decline, traders should monitor lower time frames for bearish reversal patterns and confirmation that sellers are regaining control.

Key levels to monitor:

• 7,654: Broken long-term trend; potential resistance on a rebound.

• 7,588: Recent downside objective reached by the VRBO short.

• 7,470: Measured downside target from the triggered Head-and-Shoulders pattern.

Volatility and Trade Execution

The current VRBO range is 42.5 points. Under the established methodology, the reference levels are calculated by adding or subtracting this amount from the opening price.

Traders should apply their predefined entry criteria, stop-loss parameters, and position-sizing rules rather than treating the projected levels as automatic trade signals.

Trading Strategy: Preserve Capital While the Market Resolves

Despite the bearish trend configuration, I intend to remain largely on the sidelines initially.

Two technical considerations warrant caution: the potential rebound toward broken trend support and the developing downside measured move. Allowing price to resolve these competing influences should provide a clearer opportunity to assess risk and reward.

Our bias remains bearish. The preferred setup is a confirmed short entry on a countertrend rally that fails near resistance. Until that pattern develops, patience and capital preservation take priority over initiating new exposure.

Crude Oil (10/30/26) -

Current Regimes -

Long Term: Bullish

Intermediate Term: Bullish

Short Term: Bullish

Recap :

Crude Oil is still playing the VRBO long triggered on Wednesday around 102.22. My 1 1/2 R take profit level is 105.30. Conservative traders would exit after 1 - 2 days; or, after a 1 R profit objective at 104.27. Moderate traders will hold for 1 - 2 more days and a 1 1/2 R profit objective of 105.30. Aggressive traders wold hold for a 2R profit.

Being the weekend; and, 4 days to election, I would opt for a more conservative approach

Current Setup :

Crude Oil is in the middle of it’s last major pivot high and pivot low. That tells me not to chase the market up from here.

Thursday and Friday showed successive Range Contraction days. Friday was a “Rotating” day. This leads me to think longs can be had at a lower price from here.

Friday was also a “Clear-Out” of the recent pivot high of last Friday. Its range was $2.56. Projecting half a range below its low, puts a possible buy zone around 101.

Chart - Short-term chart with 101 buy zone.

Game Plan -

Wait for pullback and pattern buys around the Short-Term trend currently around $102.58; or, around the 101 buy zone.

VRBO range of $1.91. Buy an open + $1.91.

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This week’s market action has delivered plenty of clues—and some profitable opportunities for traders paying attention. ES futures provided an early warning of a potential bottom, while Crude Oil demonstrated why patience beats chasing an extended rally. Gold is showing encouraging signs of strength, but Silver remains a market where standing aside may be the smartest trade of all.

Meanwhile, Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and Bonds are each presenting their own unique setups.

In this Midweek Roadmap, I’ll break down what the charts are telling us, identify the critical price levels, and outline the trading opportunities I’m watching next.

Let’s follow the clues, stick to the plan, and let the market come to us.

— Lundy

ES Futures (10/28/26) - The Market Leaves Clues

Zone : Trend Zone

Recap :

Sometimes the clues are minor. You have to know what they are. This week’s clue of a potential bottom in ES futures was last Friday’s Range Contraction bar after a breakout of the the lower limit of the recent Master bar of 10/16.

I noted this in my Weekend Update as a reason to stand aside on any shorts.

Also, I noted the major support of the trend at 7,642. Friday’s low was just 6 points higher.

VRBO traders had a buy around 7,730 on Monday. This has produced a 2R gain with today’s post FOMC move. The take profit was also just above the high of the 10/16 Master Bar.

Current Setup :

Post FOMC, ES spiked above the 10/16 Master Bar’s range. Only to fall back down and close the day under it’s midpoint. This is NOT bullish. It could be a Clear-Out short opportunity for the more active traders.

VRBO amount is 40.25 points. Buy that much above an open (day or night)

Game Plan :

Expect a move lower. Support at HoLB (High of Low Bar) at 7,714.5.

Can buy Breakouts via ORB / VRBO.

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Crude Oil (10/28/26) -

Recap :

I called Crude Oil “stretched” in my Weekend Update. I expected prices to retreat from their recent $6 rally.

Crude did just that; 2 down days that stayed within the Wide Range new Master Bar of last Friday.

I warned against “chasing” the market after Friday’s big rally.

One way that could have worked would have been to sell premium via a short / credit call spread above Friday’s high.

Current Setup :

Wednesday had Crude Oil rally nicely. Showing a nice ORB trade good for 1 1/2 R profit.

The VRBO trade triggered at 102.22. The take profit of 105.30 has not been reached, yet.

VRBO range is $2.00. Buy that amount above an open.

Game Plan :

I will buy via ORB / VRBO.

Read more

Crude Oil + 12.1%

Silver - 16.2%

Gold - 7.2%

Saturday, October 24, 2026

Markets are speaking loud and clear this week—but they aren’t all telling the same story. Some trends are breaking down, others are extending higher, and several are approaching critical levels where the next move could create outstanding trading opportunities.

In this weekend’s Market Update, I’ll map the key patterns, trend levels, breakout triggers, and potential setups across all eight markets: ES (S&P 500 futures), Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and 30-Year Treasury Bonds.

In ES, my bearish outlook delivered as anticipated, with Friday’s low landing almost exactly at the downside target identified in our previous update. Yet the real lesson wasn’t just getting the direction right. It was recognizing when the market offered a high-quality short—and when my own longer-term bias got in the way. Even experienced traders need to remain flexible.

Crude Oil continues to reward the bullish playbook, while Gold, Silver, and Copper are showing significant weakness. Soybeans are finding buyers at important support, Bitcoin is testing its resolve, and Bonds continue their countertrend rally.

What comes next?

Remember: my job isn’t to predict every move. It’s to identify high-probability opportunities, manage risk, and act when the market confirms our thesis.

Let’s get to the charts—and prepare for the week ahead.

Subscribe for the complete weekly analysis, actionable trade setups, and the market roadmap I use to prepare for the week ahead.

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ES Futures (10/23/26) — Bearish Momentum Meets Critical Support

Current Market Regimes

• Long-Term: Bullish

• Intermediate-Term: Bearish

• Short-Term: Bearish

• Day Trade: Bearish
  

Market Recap: The Bearish Thesis Delivers

Last weekend, I outlined a bearish scenario based on ES breaking below the September 21 Master Bar’s low—a clear Sign of Weakness (SOW)—and failing to hold key support.

My downside objective was specific: a break below 7,672.75 could expose the 7,648–7,635 zone. Friday’s low reached 7,648.50, landing almost precisely within that target.

My midweek Roadmap identified the October 16 Master Bar. Monday’s gap lower found buyers at its low, launching a three-session rally toward the prior Friday’s high. I suggested buying a breakout above 7,809.50. Instead, price exceeded that level by just 2.25 points before reversing sharply.

That failed breakout was a warning.

Two prior Wide-Range Expansion bars to the downside had already signaled underlying weakness. Wednesday’s Range Contraction suggested sellers were regaining control, creating an opportunity to Sell Three-Day Highs. I allowed my longer-term bullish bias to interfere with the shorter-term evidence—and missed an excellent short.

The subsequent setups reinforced the bearish case. Wednesday night’s expanded Opening Range Breakout (ORB) below 7,775 offered a short that reached 1.5R. Thursday’s day session delivered another 1.5R, while Thursday night’s trade exited at breakeven under my 1R Open Trade Equity (OTE) stop rule.

The lesson: Trade the evidence on your timeframe. A bullish long-term trend does not eliminate short-term bearish opportunities.

Current Setup: A Breakdown at the Crossroads

Friday closed below the October 16 Master Bar’s low, reinforcing the bearish intermediate- and short-term outlook.

The daily chart has also formed a Head-and-Shoulders Top, with Friday’s break below the neckline providing a bearish technical trigger. Further downside is possible, but follow-through will be critical.

There are two counter-signals to respect. Friday’s Range Contraction suggests sellers may be losing momentum, raising the possibility of a pause or bounce. Meanwhile, the daily trend sits just below Friday’s low at 7,642—a critical test of support.

The VRBO range is 40.75 points. Apply that range above and below the daily open to establish breakout reference levels.

Game Plan: Patience Before Action

I plan to remain largely on the sidelines while these competing signals resolve.

A sustained break below 7,642 would strengthen the bearish continuation scenario. A successful defense of support followed by a confirmed bullish reversal could create a tactical long opportunity.

The Head-and-Shoulders breakdown favors sellers, but nearby support and Range Contraction argue against chasing weakness.

The priority is patience, not prediction. Let price confirm whether sellers can extend the decline or buyers can defend support. When the evidence aligns, we act. Until then, capital preservation is a position, too.

Crude Oil (10/23/26) -

Current Regimes -

Long Term: Bullish

Intermediate Term: Bullish

Short Term: Bullish

Recap :

I’ve been bullish for the past several Updates / Roadmaps. That is playing out nicely.

My Mid Week Roadmap noted several bullish signals; my “Dynamite Triangle,” my Pattern #9 and bullish trends across my “Tri-Phase” trading method.

My Roadmap on Wednesday suggested buying a VRBO of 2.08 above a daily open. That triggered Thursday at 99.86. Price currently is at $103.44.

Thursday also gave a Pattern #5, 4 Close Reversal breakout of the Dynamite Triangle and a strong buy signal.

Nailed it!

Current Setup :

My Roadmap gave a target of a test of the highs at $106.75. Crude has rallied nicely to within a few dollars of that.

To enter long now would be chasing the market.

Price is stretched to the upside on all time frames.

Chart - Short-term chart with trend.

Game Plan -

Wait for pullback and pattern buys around the Short-Term trend currently around $100.

VRBO range of $2.05. Buy an open + $2.05.

Read more

Dear Investors and Traders,

This week reminds us why having a plan matters more than making predictions. Following Friday’s dramatic sell-off, ES respected my critical support at 7,672.75 and rallied, delivering three profitable ORB opportunities. Now, a break above 7,809.50 could open the door to a move toward 7,900.

I break down ES’s developing bullish setup and crude oil’s successful move to my $100 target. I’ll also explain why crude continues to offer income opportunities—even without a sustained directional move.

Gold is approaching a potentially important inflection point, with a developing bottoming pattern and contracting volatility. Silver remains on the sidelines until its downtrend shows meaningful improvement. I’ll also cover copper, soybeans, Bitcoin, and Treasury bonds, including the critical price levels and technical patterns shaping my outlook.

Throughout this Roadmap, you’ll find my current market zones, ORB and VRBO trade setups, and the conditions that would trigger action—or keep me on the sidelines.

The objective: identify the opportunity, define the risk, and let the market confirm the trade.

ES Futures (10/21/26) -

Zone : Trend Zone

Recap :

My weekend update highlighted Friday’s dramatic sell-off in ES and break below the Master bar of 9/21.

I presented two scenarios for the beginning of this week: a bounce or a sell-off. ES chose the latter and rallied. My line in the sand for ES was 7,672.75. This level was never breached.

Instead, ES gave us 3 ORB buy trades during the day sessions of 1 - 1.5R profits.

Current Setup :

This is has shown a nice bounce off of the support of the 10/1 tail low at 7,672.75 as mentioned above.

I think Friday’s range is now a minor “Master” bar. A break above its high would be bullish. That high is 7,809.50.

The 4 hour chart has an abnormal Head-and-Shoulders bottom and breakout pattern which forecast a move to 7,900 from here.

VRBO amount is 39.75 points. Buy that much above an open (day or night)

Game Plan :

Buy Breakouts via ORB / VRBO.

Buy move above Friday’s high. Could wait for a 30 minute or 4 hour close above that high. Or, wait for move of 1/2% above that level and buy a pullback to it.

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Crude Oil (10/21/26) -

Zone : Buy Zone

Recap :

Crude Oil reached my $100 target from the Pennant pattern breakout of 10/12. I highlighted this buy in level in several Updates / Roadmaps.

I recommended waiting for a pullback to trend on the short-term chart. Crude gave us that opportunity Tuesday overnight around $96. Then again during the subsequent day session at $98. This gave us the potential for a 1 1/2 - 2 R profit day trading.

Current Setup :

This week demonstrates the power of “Trading for Income.” Crude Oil has shown little sustained move. It currently sits just $1.48 off of last week’s close.

Crude Oil has formed a loose Dynamite Triangle. I am bullish. As highlighted in my Weekend Update, Crude Oil gave a Pattern #9 buy last Thursday; telling me a test of the $106.75 highs could be in the works.

VRBO range is $2.08. Buy that amount above an open.

Game Plan :

I will buy via ORB / VRBO.

Read more

INTRO - Saturday, October 17, 2026

The Markets Are at a Crossroads: 8 Futures Markets, Critical Turning Points, and Next Week’s Trading Opportunities

The biggest trading opportunities often emerge when markets appear to be falling apart—or when a powerful trend begins to lose momentum. The key is knowing the difference.

This week delivered both.

The S&P 500 futures provided a textbook example of why disciplined technical analysis matters. An anticipated bounce developed precisely where expected, triggering profitable breakout trades before a dramatic Friday sell-off created an entirely new set of opportunities. Now, the market is approaching a critical support zone that could determine its next major move.

Meanwhile, Crude Oil broke out of a developing bullish pattern, Gold is showing early signs of a potential reversal, and Silver remains a market where patience may be more profitable than participation. Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and Treasury Bonds are also approaching technically significant levels that deserve your attention.

But identifying a market’s direction is only half the battle. Knowing where to enter, where to place your stop, when to protect profits, and when to stand aside separates a disciplined trading approach from guesswork.

In this week’s Lundy’s Trading Pit, I break down eight futures markets using my proprietary chart patterns, trend analysis, breakout strategies, and risk-management rules. You’ll discover the key price levels I’m watching, the setups I’m preparing to trade, and the conditions that could invalidate those ideas.

The charts are revealing the opportunities. The question is: will you be prepared when they trigger?

Subscribe for the complete weekly analysis, actionable trade setups, and the market roadmap I use to prepare for the week ahead.

Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Bitcoin + 7.1%

Copper + 2.2%

ES + 2.0%

ES Futures — Tactical Reversal, Momentum Breakdown, and the Next Critical Support Zone

Market Review: October 16, 2026

1. Market Regime Assessment

• Long-Term: Bullish

• Intermediate-Term: Bearish

• Short-Term: Bearish

• Day-Trade: Bearish

Executive View: The long-term bullish structure remains intact, but intermediate- and short-term momentum have shifted decisively lower. Friday’s sell-off reinforces the near-term bearish bias and places the market at an important technical inflection point. The immediate focus is the 7,672.75 support level, followed by the 7,648–7,635 confluence zone.

The preferred strategy is to sell confirmed downside continuation while preparing to evaluate long setups at lower support.

2. Trade Review: The Bounce Was Tradable—Until It Wasn’t

The midweek Roadmap identified the potential for an immediate bounce from the September 21 Master Bar low near 7,712. Price responded as anticipated, creating actionable breakout opportunities on Thursday.

Opening Range Breakout (ORB) — Long

• Entry: 7,748

• Initial stop: 7,717

• Initial risk: 31 points (1R)

• Breakeven threshold: 7,779 (1R)

• Profit objective: 7,794.50 (1.5R)

Result: Successful trade. The setup delivered its predefined profit objective, validating the entry framework and risk parameters.

The VRBO long approached its breakeven threshold but required more active management. Because the trade was predicated on a countertrend bounce, the prior session’s high was a critical decision point.

Once price cleared that high, the appropriate management response was to trail the stop beneath the latest confirmed pivot low. On the 30-minute chart, that level was 7,787.25, coinciding with the 11:30 p.m. Master Bar. This provided a logical reference for protecting open profits as the market tested higher levels.

The broader lesson: A countertrend rally should be managed as a tactical trade, not automatically promoted to a trend-following position.

3. Friday: Bearish Momentum Takes Control

Friday’s session confirmed a material deterioration in the short-term technical picture. Both the VRBO and ORB short setups triggered, providing systematic opportunities to participate in the decline.

The short ORB triggered near 7,780. ES subsequently closed below 7,700, representing a decline of more than 80 points from the entry area.

For active traders, the session demonstrated the value of maintaining a rules-based framework that can accommodate both long and short opportunities. More aggressive traders may trade both directions when independent setups trigger, provided each position has a defined entry, stop, and risk budget.

Key takeaway: The Thursday bounce offered a long opportunity; Friday’s breakdown offered a short opportunity. The objective is not to maintain a directional opinion but to respond to changing price structure.

4. Current Technical Assessment

Friday’s close established three important reference points.

First: The September 21 Master Bar low was violated. This represents a bearish development and signals that an important prior support reference has failed.

Second: Price closed below Thursday’s Clear-Out low. The inability to sustain Thursday’s recovery reinforces the near-term bearish interpretation.

Third: The October 1 low near 7,672.75 attracted buying interest. Price stalled and recovered modestly from this level. That response is not, by itself, evidence of renewed weakness or a confirmed reversal. It identifies the next level the market must resolve.

The immediate question is whether ES can hold 7,672.75 or whether sellers force a decisive breakdown.

5. Tactical Game Plan: Levels That Matter

Scenario A — Bearish Continuation

A gap-down open below 7,672.75 would be a significant warning that sellers retain control.

I would monitor the opening price action for confirmation of acceptance below this level, rather than shorting mechanically on the gap alone. A failed recovery, downside ORB, or qualifying VRBO setup would provide a more structured entry opportunity.

Intermediate-term downside objective: 7,648.

The longer-term trend reference near 7,635 creates a meaningful support confluence in the 7,648–7,635 zone.

My working expectation is that ES may test this area if downside momentum persists. It remains a target scenario, not a certainty.

Scenario B — Support and Reversal

The 7,648–7,635 zone is also where I will begin looking for potential long opportunities.

However, reaching support is not a buy signal by itself. I want to see evidence that selling pressure is being absorbed and that the intermediate- or short-term structure is turning higher.

Potential triggers include a bullish Clear-Out, a qualifying reversal pattern, or a confirmed ORB/VRBO long setup with acceptable risk.

The objective is to buy a demonstrated change in market behavior—not to catch a falling market simply because it has reached a projected target.

6. Execution Priorities for the Coming Week

1. Below 7,672.75: Prioritize confirmed downside continuation setups.

2. Approaching 7,648: Monitor for deceleration, exhaustion, or a potential reversal.

3. Within 7,648–7,635: Evaluate long entries only after the price action confirms a tradable turn.

4. If support breaks decisively: Reassess the bullish long-term structure rather than assuming the projected support zone must hold.

Bottom Line

ES has transitioned from a tradable countertrend bounce to a short-term bearish market. The next important decision point is 7,672.75, with 7,648–7,635 representing the primary downside target and potential reversal zone.

My bias remains bearish in the near term, but I will not chase price into support. I want to sell confirmed weakness and buy only when the charts demonstrate that buyers have regained control.

Preparation defines the levels. Price confirms the setup. Risk management determines whether the trade is worth taking.

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Introduction -

One inflation report. One dramatic sell-off. And a market suddenly facing some important tests.

Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected CPI data sent shockwaves through the markets, triggering sharp reversals, expanding trading ranges, and putting critical support levels under pressure. The S&P 500 is approaching a key test that could determine whether buyers step back in—or the selling intensifies. Meanwhile, Crude Oil’s bullish breakout remains in play, but slowing momentum demands tighter risk management.

Gold and Silver continue to flash warning signs, with Silver testing its 2026 lows. Copper is approaching a potentially pivotal long-term trend level, while Soybeans are challenging a price floor that has repeatedly attracted buyers. Bitcoin is holding its ground, and Bonds are rallying—but neither is offering an all-clear signal just yet.

This is a market for precision, not prediction. In this week’s Roadmap, I’ll show you the critical price levels, the chart patterns that matter, and the specific setups I’m watching for potential trades.

The objective remains the same: identify the opportunity, define the risk, and let the market confirm the move.

Here’s where I see the opportunities. Here’s my “roadmap.”

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Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025 (not counting Wednesday)

S & P 500 : Up + 14.1 %

Gold : Down 3.8 %

Silver : Down 15.6 %

Bitcoin : Down -5.1 %

ES Futures (10/14/26) -

Zone : Buy Zone

Recap :

My weekend update highlighted that I was a buyer on Breakouts to start this week. My VRBO amount was 37.5 points. The VRBO was never triggered. The ORB was not hit in day session trading.

I did trigger an ORB buy in overnight trading Tuesday night. Closing out a 2R profit in the Russell just before inflation data came in hot and the market tanked.

This sent prices down to the lower quarter of the 9/21 Master Bar.

Current Setup :

Wednesday was a 4 Close Reversal down. It was also a Clear-Out, Outside day down bar. I think prices will test the lows of the 9/21 Master bar at 7,713.75.

The best bull case is an immediate bounce from Wednesday’s lows. Perhaps this was an over reaction to hot CPI data.

Another bull case is a 1 - 2 day stall at the lows of Wednesday. This would set up a potential buy next week.

VRBO amount is 37.20 points. Buy that much above an open (day or night)

Game Plan :

Look for an immediate bounce - “dead cat” or otherwise - for a quick 1 1/2 - 2 R profit via ORB / VRBO.

Crude Oil (10/14/26) -

Recap :

Previously I noted a nice Pennant in Crude Oil. Price penetrated that pattern to the upside on Monday. A buy at the Pennant breakout put you long at 92.63. This is buy above the 30 minute bar which broke above the Pennant.

Tuesday had a nice pullback to the Pennant. This also coincided with the Short term trend at 92.00. On the Short-Term, 30 minute chart, price had a 4 Close Reversal up at Tuesday, pre open.

The pullback to 92 also coincided with the intersection of Monday’s two Wide Range up bars on the intermediate term time frame.

Current Setup :

My “FULL” Pennant breakout target was $100. A 75% target is at 98.

Wednesday was a Narrow Range day. This means buyers are stalling. If long, it is a sign to move your stop loss up. Wednesday range was $2.09. The 10 day ATR is over $4. I would move stop loss $1.05 below Wednesday’s low. This is 1/2 of Wednesday’s range.

VRBO range is $2.02. Buy that amount above an open.

Game Plan :

I will look for buys back around trend on the Short term. This is at $94. If price reaches $98 before that, I will not take buys until a more substantial pull-back; as this would be a Pennant 75% target.

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This week delivered exactly what disciplined traders wait for: a pullback to trend, a clear signal, and a powerful move higher. The S&P 500 rallied more than 130 points after Monday’s dip brought prices within striking distance of short-term trend support. Our subsequent Roadmap identified opportunities in Opening Range Breakouts (ORBs) and Volatility Range Breakouts (VRBOs)—and both delivered.

But the bigger story may be what happens next.

Crude Oil is pressing against a key chart formation. Gold is flashing potential bottoming signals, including a developing Cup-and-Handle pattern with an upside target of $4,450. Silver is showing early signs of life, but its larger trend remains bearish. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has broken important chart structure, and Bonds may be preparing for a reversal of their own.

These markets are telling very different stories. The challenge is knowing which signals deserve your capital—and which demand patience.

In this weekend’s Market Update, I break down the critical chart patterns, trading triggers, price levels, and game plans that matter for the week ahead. See where the opportunities are developing before the next move begins.

Become a paying subscriber now and get my 9 Patterns that Signal a Trend Change eGuide FREE.

Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Nasdaq + 5.2%

Bitcoin + 4.6%

ES + 2.3%

Crude Oil (10/9/26) -

Current Regimes -

Long Term: Bullish

Intermediate Term: Bearish

Short Term: Bullish

Recap :

Crude Oil has been trading inside a downward Pennant formation. Previously I noted that Tuesday had a Clear-Out breakout of that Pennant’s low. That forecast a move back to the top of the Pennant.

That is what Crude Oil gave us.

I said to buy ORB’s; which worked on Thursday and Friday.

The VRBO breakout amount of $2.17 got long Thursday at 91.17. If holding multi day, it is still long with small open profit.

Current Setup :

Price is still within the Pennant. A breakout up from that Pennant coincides roughly with Friday’s Inside Day high. That is the long trigger.

Can enter prior to that signal via ORB / VRBO signals.

Chart - Daily Chart with Pennant.

Game Plan -

Buy Breakouts via ORBs and VRBOs.

Buy break above Friday’s high.

VRBO range of $2.10. Buy an open + $2.10

My ES market commentary is below.

Read more

The S&P 500 continues to push toward new highs, with ES futures rallying more than 120 points from Friday’s close and successfully pulling back to short-term trend before buyers stepped back in. That is the kind of price action I want to see: strength, a controlled pullback, and then a defined opportunity to get long.

But commodities are telling a different story.

Crude Oil remains in a corrective pattern, yet I continue to look for low-risk opportunities to buy. Gold and Silver have finally reached levels where the risk/reward is becoming more interesting after weeks of standing aside. Copper is developing a potential bottom, while Soybeans have produced a meaningful reversal pattern.

Bitcoin has also entered a short-term Buy Zone despite Wednesday’s sharp sell-off.

The key word this week is selectivity.

I’m not interested in chasing markets simply because they are moving. I want defined setups, favorable risk, and confirmation from patterns, ORBs and VRBOs.

Here’s where I see the opportunities. Here’s my roadmap.

If you want to see the levels, setups and trade plans I’m watching in real time, become a paid subscriber and get the full report.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 14.2 %

Gold : Down 3.5 %

Silver : Down 12.8 %

Bitcoin : Down -2.3 %

ES Futures (10/7/26) -

Zone :

Recap :

My weekend update highlighted the ES Pattern #5 - 4 Close Reversal on the daily chart. Friday closed at 7,776.5. ES rallied to a new All-Time-High of 7,897.50; a gain of over 120 points.

I recommended standing aside until atleast a Short-Term pullback to trend. This happened Sunday night - Monday morning. ES pulled back to within 8 points of its 100 bar moving average on the short-term chart.

That was the signal to start buying. Monday had both an ORB and VRBO signal in the Monday day session. The Sunday night ORB showed a small loss. Monday’s VRBO from last week was Open + 35.5.

This worked Monday day and evening session. Price reached a favorable close on Tuesday at 7,873.

Current Setup :

Tuesday showed a Yum-Yum break of the 9/21 Master Bar’s high at 7,847.25. Wednesday started the day with a reversal of that breakout back into the Master Bar’s range; where it found support; buyers.

I’m expecting a retest of Wednesday’s low to complete an a-b-c reaction. This could be a shallow or deep pull back in price.

VRBO amount is 38.50 points. Buy that much above an open (day or night)

Game Plan :

Buy ORB / VRBO.

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Crude Oil (10/7/26) -

Recap :

Previously I called for buying Crude Oil breakouts via ORB and VRBO signals. Monday’s ORB was breakeven as stop gets moved to breakeven on a 1R favorable move. Tuesday had a 1R gain; with a wide $1.11 R. Wednesday had a small 1R loss with R of $0.98.

NoVRBO’s occurred.

Current Setup :

Charts in Crude Oil are showing a downward Pennant. Tuesday broke the low of that Pennant; only to “Clear-Out” and close near the high of the day. Wednesday reversed the reversal and closed lower. Wednesday completed a Pattern #5 - 4 Close Reversal down.

Crude Oil is working on a possible 4 down weeks in a row. I’m still bullish. So, I am trying to buy.

VRBO range is $2.17. Buy that amount above an open.

Game Plan :

Again, I will take nibbles long only if stop loss (below key chart levels) is below 25% of ATR. Buy via ORB’s and VRBO’s. Watch for breakouts of the key $90 level.

Read more

Bitcoin + 9.3%

Nasdaq + 6.4%

ES + 1.3%

INTRO -

Saturday, October 3, 2026

The most dangerous time to trade is often when the market looks the most obvious.

This week was a perfect example.

The S&P 500 futures market broke below a level I had been watching closely, appeared to confirm a breakdown, and then suddenly sprang back higher—producing a Pattern #5, my 4-Close Reversal signal. From that reversal, ES rallied more than 50 points, and more than 100 points from the original 7,700 Clear-Out.

But now the picture has changed again.

Friday produced significant selling, while ES sits directly inside the range of the September 21 Master Bar and remains extended above both its intermediate- and short-term trends. My longer-term bullish thesis remains intact, with an 8,050 projection still on the table—but I don’t believe traders should chase the market here.

That distinction is at the heart of this week’s Lundy’s Trading Pit.

I’m not trying to predict every market move. I’m trying to identify where the risk/reward becomes favorable and then wait for my patterns to confirm it.

That discipline becomes even more important across commodities this week.

Crude Oil remains bullish across all three major time frames, but recent selling has kept me from aggressively chasing longs. Gold delivered a spectacular reversal, rallying more than $40 before collapsing more than $100—and the chart structure now suggests caution rather than opportunity. Silver is compressing into what could become a significant range expansion. Copper is pulling back after making new highs. Soybeans are testing a major long-term pattern. Bitcoin remains structurally bullish despite Friday’s sharp selloff. And Bonds may finally be setting up for the pullback I’ve been waiting for.

This is where the charts become more valuable than the headlines.

Inside this week’s full report, I lay out the specific patterns, trend levels, projected targets, ORB and VRBO setups, and—perhaps most importantly—the markets where I’m deliberately doing nothing.

Because sometimes the best trade is the one you have the discipline to wait for.

The detailed charts and game plans for all eight markets are available to paid subscribers.

Become a paying subscriber now and get my 9 Patterns that Signal a Trend Change eGuide FREE.

ES (10/2/26)

Current Regimes
Long Term: Bullish
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Short Term: Bullish
Day Trade: Bearish

Market Assessment

The past week has validated both sides of the recent market debate: the longer-term bullish thesis remains intact, while near-term price action has become increasingly vulnerable to a corrective move.

ES tested the 7,700 support level three times over the past seven sessions. On Wednesday, I identified the potential for a fourth test and a downside break. That break occurred—but failed to develop into sustained weakness.

Instead, ES produced a Pattern #5 — 4 Close Reversal, effectively a Spring beneath 7,700. The reversal also occurred at the low of the September 21 Master Bar, adding technical significance to the level. From the Pattern #5 signal, ES advanced more than 50 points; measured from the 7,700 Clear-Out, the rally exceeded 100 points.

The underlying structure therefore remains constructive.

Current Setup

Friday’s price action is developing another, larger Pattern #5 — 4 Close Reversal on the daily chart. However, the session’s significant afternoon selling introduces a near-term note of caution.

ES is currently trading near the center of the September 21 Master Bar range and remains extended above both the intermediate- and short-term trend levels, currently 7,731 and 7,744, respectively.

My intermediate-term wave projection remains 8,050.

The key question is therefore not whether the longer-term trend remains bullish—it does—but whether ES can consolidate or pull back sufficiently to create a more favorable entry.

Game Plan

Stand aside and wait for a pullback toward the short-term trend before committing capital.

VRBO: Buy at Open + 35.5 points.

The objective is to participate in the next confirmed upside expansion rather than chase an already extended market.

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Crude Oil (10/2/26) -

Current Regimes -

Long Term: Bullish

Intermediate Term: Bullish

Short Term: Bullish

Recap :

ES and Crude Oil seem intertwined; at least in my charting. Like ES, I am longer term bullish on Crude Oil. Yet, shorter term, I have been hesitant to initiate long position. Previously, I highlighted the preponderance of down bars in the last two weeks as a bearish inclination.

My view played out as to be expected. Price tried to rally. But, it was quickly sold off.

Current Setup :

Thursday had a VRBO buy signal. I did not take this trade as the risk was almost 50% of ATR. My stop loss limit as stated previously is 25% of ATR.

Friday had a nice bounce off of the lows.

VRBO range is $2.32. Buy that amount above an open.

The weekly chart is bullish. The last two weeks have strong bottom tails - Buyers.

Chart - 4 Hour Chart with Triangle pattern down.

Game Plan -

Buy Breakouts via ORBs and VRBOs.

Still “nibble” longs via ORBs and VRBOs.

VRBO range of $2.32. Buy an open + $2.32

Read more

The market is at an interesting crossroads.

The S&P 500 remains up more than 12% for the year, and I continue to believe the bigger-picture setup supports my “melt-up” thesis. But underneath the surface, the charts are telling a much more cautious story.

ES futures are sitting directly on important trend and support levels. Crude Oil has completed an A-B-C reaction and is showing aggressive selling pressure. Gold and Silver have broken major lows, while Copper is confirming weakness across the metals complex. Bonds continue to deteriorate, reinforcing my longer-term bearish thesis on interest rates.

There are exceptions. Soybeans remain constructive, and Bitcoin continues to hold its bullish Cup-and-Handle setup.

So what do I do with all of this?

I wait for confirmation.

This week’s charts are less about predicting the next move and more about identifying where the market will force my hand—using ORBs, VRBOs, trend levels, Master Bars and my proprietary chart patterns to define the trades worth taking.

Here’s my roadmap.

If you want to see the levels, setups and trade plans I’m watching in real time, become a paid subscriber and get the full report.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 12.1 %

Gold : Down 3.7 %

Silver : Down 13.5 %

Bitcoin : Down -4.5 %

ES Futures (9/30/26) -

Recap :

Although I am bullish on stocks via my “melt-up” theme, I am waiting for confirmation via ORB or VRBO. While the ORB did trigger a long trade loss today, the stronger VRBO never triggered this week, thus far.

Previously, I stated that 7,700 would be major support for ES. This level has held on 3 attempts so far this week. Most of this weeks lows have been in the high teens (7,710 - 7,720). Wednesday however got as low as 7,505.50.

This weeks lows have been closer to the intermediate term trend level; currently at 7,722. I like the trend level better than absolute numbers.

Current Setup :

ES price has been trading mostly within the 9/21 “Master” bar. That bar’s low is 7,713.75.

My prior support zone at 7,700 has been tested 3 times this week. I will follow the adage “3 tests and bounce; 4 tests and break.” This is why I think ES will head lower if we don’t get an immediate bounce from these levels.

I think a break below the Master bar of 9/21 could have prices fall to 1/2 of that bar’s range below that bars low. This puts a possible zone around 7,647. With obvious major support at 7,600; the lows of September.

The Long-Term trend is slightly lower at 7,590.

VRBO amount is 37.50 points. Buy that much above an open (day or night)

Game Plan :

I will take nibbles long only is stop loss is under 25% of ATR.

Crude Oil (9/30/26) -

Recap :

Again, I called the pullback in Crude Oil to $90. Crude Oil hit 88.58 Tuesday. This was $1.42 below my target. Not as close as last week’s 16 cents margin of error. I’ll take it nonetheless.

Crude Oil has now formed an a-b-c reaction down to its recent rally up from $80 to $106. Will that be enough? Time will tell. Charts are hinting at “no.”

Current Setup :

Charts in Crude Oil are showing me aggression to the the sell side. 8 of last 11 bars are down bars. And not minor down bars. Two of the 3 up bars had big top tails. This signals sellers taking control.

I think the next move is to the downside. A 62% fib projection down is at $85. A fib 78% projection down is at $82.

VRBO range is $2.35. Buy that amount above an open.

Game Plan :

Again, I will take nibbles long only if stop loss (below key chart levels) is below 25% of ATR.

Read more

Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Bitcoin + 7%

Crude Oil + 12%

Soybeans + 7.4%

The market is getting more interesting—and more selective.

At first glance, the story looks straightforward: ES and Nasdaq pushed to new all-time highs this week. But underneath that headline, the market is becoming less uniform. The Dow remains 5.6% below its high. Russell is down 7.7%. Gold and Silver have turned sharply lower. Bonds remain under pressure. Meanwhile, Copper, Soybeans and Bitcoin are quietly developing very different technical structures.

That divergence matters.

This week’s report is built around one question: Where is the market actually giving us an edge—and where is it telling us to stay out of the way?

In ES, I’m watching the tension between a potentially completed correction around 7,700 and another attempt at the “Melt-Up.” Crude Oil has bounced almost exactly where the weekly chart suggested it might, but the larger a-b-c correction may not be finished. Gold and Silver are approaching important technical decision points, including potential Head-and-Shoulders formations.

Elsewhere, the picture becomes considerably more constructive. Copper is testing record territory. Soybeans are developing a major monthly Cup-and-Handle with a potential target above $15. Bitcoin has triggered a weekly Cup-and-Handle of its own.

And then there are Bonds—where the technical picture may be telling us something important about the increasingly delicate relationship between interest rates, inflation expectations and risk assets.

Inside this week’s report, I’ll walk through each market using the same framework I use every week: trend, pattern, levels, setup and game plan. I lay out the specific buy zones, breakout levels, demand zones, reversal patterns, and trade triggers I’m watching across ES, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Soybeans and T-Bonds.

The goal isn’t to predict every move.

It’s to know where to act when the market gives us the signal—and where to simply wait.

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ES Futures: The Bull Market Is Being Tested—But the Melt-Up May Not Be Over

The ES market is presenting a fascinating contradiction.

On one hand, the S&P 500 has pushed back toward record territory, with the index closing Thursday at 7,704 and September futures recently trading around 7,760. The Nasdaq has also reached record territory.

On the other hand, market breadth is telling a less comfortable story. The Dow and Russell remain materially below their respective highs, creating a divergence beneath the surface. At the same time, the macro backdrop has become more challenging: the 30-year Treasury yield recently reached roughly 5.50%, while Reuters notes that rising yields and a narrowing equity rally are emerging risks to the market’s advance.

That makes your multi-time-frame framework particularly useful here.

The correction did exactly what it was supposed to do

Monday’s surge to new highs initially suggested another upside acceleration. But Tuesday’s Narrow Range session failed to produce the expected follow-through.

That was the first warning.

The subsequent 3 Bar Equilibrium to the downside provided a much better-defined short-term opportunity. Your identification of approximately 7,700 as intermediate-term support proved particularly important: ES subsequently declined to 7,710.

In other words, the market tested the level where your framework said buyers should become interested.

The 30-minute 3 Drives to a Bottom then provided additional evidence that downside momentum was becoming exhausted.

This is an important distinction: the correction did not invalidate the bullish thesis—it tested it.

Now the setup is changing again

The most interesting development is what happened next.

Wednesday through Friday produced a 3 Day Equilibrium to the upside.

That changes the immediate tactical picture.

The market has moved from:

Record high → failed follow-through → corrective decline → test of intermediate support → potential reversal → renewed upside compression.

That is a very different structure from simply saying “the market is bullish.”

Your framework is identifying a sequence.

And sequences matter.

The macro backdrop is the complication

The biggest risk to the Melt-Up thesis isn’t necessarily the chart.

It’s the bond market.

The 30-year Treasury yield has pushed to levels not seen in more than two decades, while markets remain sensitive to the possibility of additional Fed tightening.

That creates a fascinating cross-current.

Equities are acting as though liquidity and earnings expectations remain supportive.

The bond market is signaling that the cost of capital remains restrictive.

That doesn’t automatically mean equities must decline. But it does mean the upside needs to continue proving itself through price action rather than being assumed.

My tactical read

This is where I think your trading methodology is particularly strong.

I wouldn’t try to resolve the long-term contradiction with a prediction.

I’d let the market resolve it.

Your 7,700 area becomes the critical reference point. Holding above that level while the 3-Day Equilibrium develops favors another attempt higher. Losing that area would materially weaken the immediate bullish setup and reopen the downside.

Above the market, the next objective is straightforward: a breakout into fresh highs.

The potential pullback toward Thursday’s high is also important because successful retests often provide cleaner entries than chasing an extended breakout.

Your proposed VRBO trigger of Open + 38 points therefore fits the broader philosophy: don’t anticipate the breakout—make price prove the breakout is occurring.

Bottom Line

I would characterize ES as a market caught between structural strength and tactical deterioration.

The long-, intermediate-, and short-term regime in your framework remains bearish, while the day-trade regime has turned bullish. That apparent contradiction is actually the story.

The market is at an inflection point.

7,700 is the battleground.

Hold it, and the 3-Day Equilibrium and 3 Drives reversal provide a technical foundation for another leg higher.

Break it, and the market has failed an important test of support.

For now, the chart is giving you a reason to participate—but only with confirmation.

Don’t predict the Melt-Up. Trade the evidence of the Melt-Up.

Crude Oil (9/25/26) -

Current Regimes -

Long Term: Bullish

Intermediate Term: Bearish

Short Term: Bearish

Recap -

Two weeks ago I pulled back on my Crude Oil bullish stance. I highlighted the Clear-Out on the weekly chart. It highlighted a potential low that turned out to be within 20 cents of this week’s actual low. This level also coincided with the Demand Zone of the daily tail lows at the start of the month around $90.

Crude Oil rallied strongly off of this projected bottom. I refrained from issuing a buy signal. I said I would prefer a pullback to the short term trend. This happened on Friday.

Current Setup -

The daily chart appears to have bottomed around the “Demand Zone” of $90. I do expect a deeper “c” leg down to complete the a-b-c reaction down from $106 highs.

The weekly chart has formed a potential 2 Bar Mean-Reversion back to the low of the 7/7 weekly bar.

Chart - Daily chart with potential c leg of a-b-c reaction

Game Plan -

Wait for possible c leg down to around the zone 50% of Friday’s Range below it’s low.

Still “nibble” longs via ORB’s and VRBO’s.

VRBO range of $2.30. Buy an open + $2.30

Read more

It’s called the SPX box spread.

And while the strategy isn’t inherently dangerous, I think investors should pay very close attention to it.

Why?

Because whenever Wall Street develops a financial engineering solution that appears to eliminate a risk, I like to ask one simple question:

Where did the risk go?

That question becomes particularly important right now, as Treasury yields have surged and long-duration bonds have come under renewed pressure.

The traditional 60/40 portfolio — 60% stocks and 40% bonds — was built around the idea that bonds would provide income, stability and diversification when stocks struggled.

But when inflation and interest rates rise, long-duration bonds can suffer substantial losses.

That has money managers looking for alternatives.

And increasingly, they’re turning to options.

What Is a Box Spread?

The name sounds complicated, but the concept is relatively simple.

A traditional S&P 500 box spread combines four options:

• Buy a call at one strike
  

• Sell a call at another strike
  

• Buy a put at one strike
  

• Sell a put at another strike
  

The positions are constructed so that the S&P 500’s direction largely cancels out.

The result is a predetermined payoff at expiration.

For example, if the distance between the strikes is $500, the box is designed to produce a $500 payoff at expiration regardless of whether the S&P 500 finishes higher or lower.

That’s the key.

You’re not really betting on the S&P 500.

You’re essentially creating a transaction involving the price of money.

That’s why box spreads are often described as synthetic zero-coupon bonds or financing instruments.

And that is precisely why Wall Street finds them attractive.

Why Is Wall Street Doing This?

There are several reasons.

1. Rising rates have hurt traditional bonds

When interest rates rise, existing bonds become less valuable.

The longer the maturity, the greater the sensitivity.

A 30-year Treasury can experience substantial price swings when rates move.

A short-term box spread has much less duration exposure.

So instead of owning long-duration bonds, an institution can potentially lock in a shorter-term return.

2. Box spreads can offer attractive financing rates

The implied interest rate on a box is closely related to short-term interest rates.

When the economics are favorable, institutions can use boxes as an alternative source of financing or cash management.

Cboe has reported that SPX box-spread activity has grown dramatically, with daily notional loan volume reaching roughly $1.7 billion in 2026.

That tells you something important.

This isn’t just a clever options strategy being used by a handful of sophisticated traders.

It’s becoming part of the institutional financial system.

3. SPX options are extremely liquid

The S&P 500 options market is enormous.

That makes it possible for institutions to construct very large positions.

SPX options also have important structural characteristics: they are European-style and cash-settled.

That makes them particularly useful for institutional strategies.

4. The maturity can be customized

Instead of buying a Treasury with a maturity that doesn’t exactly match your needs, an institution can construct a box around a particular expiration date.

That’s useful for managing cash flows and liabilities.

But Here’s Where It Gets Interesting

The box spread has a very attractive characteristic:

If you hold it until expiration, the payoff is predetermined.

But that doesn’t mean the position cannot lose money before expiration.

Suppose you buy a box today that matures in three months.

Then interest rates rise.

New boxes can be created at higher implied rates.

Your existing box, which has a lower implied return, becomes less attractive.

Its market value can therefore decline.

If you can hold it until expiration, that may not matter.

But portfolios don’t always operate that way.

Sometimes investors need their money now.

And that’s where the risk changes.

But here’s where the story gets much more interesting.

A box spread may look like a simple replacement for bonds.

But the real question isn’t whether the strategy works as designed.

It’s what happens when the market doesn’t behave as designed.

That’s where the risks become much more complicated.

Read more

Written at close of market Wednesday.

The markets are moving, but they are not all telling the same story.

Stocks have pushed to new all-time highs, Crude Oil has delivered a remarkably precise reversal, Copper has surged to record levels, and Soybeans continue to hold a major long-term bullish pattern. At the same time, Gold and Silver remain under pressure, Bitcoin is working through a short-term consolidation, and Bonds are flashing a warning that deserves attention.

That divergence is where the opportunity—and the risk—lives.

In this mid-week update, I’m looking beyond the headlines and breaking down what the charts, trends and price patterns are actually saying across the major commodity and financial futures markets.

I’ll show you where I see potential breakouts, where I’m waiting for a pullback, which markets I’m avoiding, and the specific patterns I’m watching for my next trade.

And for paid readers, I’m going a step further. You’ll get my specific game plans, the price levels I’m watching, and the setups I’m prepared to trade—not just a recap of what already happened.

You don’t need to predict what happens next. You need a plan for what you’ll do when it happens.

If you want to see the levels, setups and trade plans I’m watching in real time, become a paid subscriber and get the full report.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 13.4 %

Gold : Up 1.2 %

Silver : Down 6.0 %

Bitcoin : Down -1.8 %

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ES Futures (9/23/26) -

Zone :

Recap :

I’ve held a bullish stance on stocks for some time. This week has confirmed that with new All-Time-Highs in ES and NQ. The Dow and Russell failed to confirm these highs. This is concerning for continued upside immediately.

Last week I noted the “Clear-Out” Bullish Engulfing bar at the low of the major August Master Bar. To me, this told me that ES prices should rally back to the high of that Master Bar; 7,786. This is exactly what ES did and them some. Monday closed well outside the Master Bar’s range.

Monday was a great day for my ORB and VRBO signals. The ORB should have gotten long Sunday night around 7,729; and 7,776 on Monday’s day session.

I had a VRBO of the open + 38 points. This generated a buy in ES at 7,760.

Current Setup :

Despite Monday’s strong rally and break of the Master Bar’s high, Tuesday showed NO follow through up. Wednesday showed a reversal down with a 3 Day Equilibrium down which closed below the midpoint of Monday’s big rally. This is short-term bearish.

Game Plan :

I am not prepared to short a market that just made new ATHs. Instead, I will wait for possible Clear-Out of Wednesday’s low.

The Intermediate term trend is down at 7,700. I would expect prices to pull back to that trend line.

From there I will trade my Reversal Patterns or Break-Out patterns.

Crude Oil (9/23/26) -

Recap :

I called the low in Crude Oil to within 16 cents.

Last week I said I didn’t like the market action mid-week; and that my bullish bias was “wavering.”

I noted the weekly Clear-Out bar and gave a downside target of 88.83 (new contract adjusted). Crude Oil bottomed at 88.67 on Tuesday. Wow!

Crude Oil had a major Demand Zone around $90 as evidenced by the 3 daily tail lows at the start of this month. Please reference my “Demand Zone” rule from my prior weekend update.

Current Setup :

The short term turned positive this morning around $92. The Intermediate term is still down.

So, I’m expecting more downside action; maybe a pullback to trend on the Short Term at $91.

Game Plan :

I will wait for pullbacks to Short term trend at $91 and for the Intermediate to turn positive.

Read more

Bitcoin + 25%

Crude Oil + 13%

Soybeans + 8.6%

Saturday, September 19, 2026

The FOMC Is Behind Us — Is the Melt-Up Ready to Resume?

The Fed has spoken. The uncertainty is behind us. Now comes the part that matters most to traders: what does the market do next?

This week delivered several important clues.

ES briefly broke major support following the FOMC announcement—only to immediately reverse with a powerful Bullish Engulfing pattern. That rejection of support was significant. By Friday, ES had pushed to a new 8-day high, while the weekly chart continued to show evidence of persistent buying pressure.

But ES isn’t the only market sending signals.

Crude Oil found support where it needed to and then revealed signs that the recent rally may be getting tired. Gold finally produced the upside reversal we’ve been waiting for after completing an A-B-C reaction. Silver is quietly becoming much more interesting, with multiple time frames beginning to align. Copper continues to demonstrate impressive strength, Soybeans are developing a potentially important long-term bottom, and Bitcoin delivered another powerful move higher—right after the setup we identified in Wednesday’s Mid-Week update.

In this week’s Lundy’s Trading Pit, I’ll walk through each of these markets, identify the patterns developing beneath the surface, and lay out the specific levels I’m watching.

The FOMC may have created the volatility.

Now the charts are telling us what to do with it.

Inside this week’s report, I lay out the specific buy zones, breakout levels, demand zones, reversal patterns, and trade triggers I’m watching across ES, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Soybeans and T-Bonds.

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ES FUTURES — TACTICAL MARKET UPDATE

September 19, 2026

Current Regimes

Long Term: Bullish
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Short Term: Bullish
Day Trade: Bullish

Market View

ES remains firmly bullish across all four time horizons, with this week’s post-FOMC reversal providing an important confirmation of underlying demand.

I previously identified 7,645 as key support and maintained a bullish bias, favoring breakout purchases. Wednesday’s FOMC reaction briefly pushed ES below that level, but sellers failed to sustain the breakdown.

ES immediately reversed with a Bullish Engulfing pattern on the 30-minute chart, right at the low of the major August Master Bar.

That reaction is important.

An immediate rejection of a major support or resistance breakout is a clear sign of strength or weakness—and should be traded accordingly.

The reversal subsequently produced several actionable long entries:

• ORB: approximately 7,633

• VRBO: approximately 7,651

• Short-term trend confirmation: approximately 7,670
  

All three provided traders with defined ways to participate without having to predict the reversal.

Current Setup

The FOMC uncertainty is now behind us, and the technical picture has improved considerably.

Both the intermediate- and short-term trends have successfully tested support and turned higher.

Friday added another piece of confirmation by producing a new eight-day high, qualifying as a Pattern #4 buy—and then some.

The weekly chart is equally constructive. The last four weekly candles have each developed lower tails greater than 50% of their ranges. This repeated rejection of lower prices represents persistent buying pressure and qualifies as a Pattern #7 buy.

The evidence suggests that the larger “Melt-Up” thesis remains intact.

Game Plan

Bias: Buy strength.

Primary Strategy: Buy confirmed breakouts.

Resistance: 7,820

VRBO: Buy at Open + 38 points

Key Support: 7,645

The failed breakdown this week makes 7,645 an important reference level going forward. As long as ES continues to hold above major support and the short- and intermediate-term trends remain positive, I will continue to favor the long side.

Bottom Line

ES has moved from defending support to challenging recent highs.

The failed breakdown, Bullish Engulfing reversal, trend confirmation and new eight-day high have all strengthened the bullish case.

The market is telling us to respect the trend.

My job is not to predict the next move. It is to be ready when the market makes it.

Crude Oil (9/19/26) -

Current Regimes -

Long Term: Bullish

Intermediate Term: Bullish

Short Term: Bullish

Recap -

My bullish bias in Crude Oil wavered last week. This week had Crude Oil retest and break last week’s highs. Only to immediately reverse via a 2 Bar Flip-Flop on Tuesday and Wednesday.

I said the 9/11 low would be support. That proved accurate this past Thursday and Friday. Thursday had a big tail low. That is SOS - Sign of Strength.

Current Setup -

The Wide-Range daily bar on 9/10 is still the “Master” bar. It has Resistance at 99.65 and Support at 92.06.

I said in my Mid-Week update that I don’t like Crude Oil trading below the Open of the Week. This was correct as Crude Oil dropped over $2 from Wednesday’s close - the time of the Mid-Week update writing.

Crude Oil had a major Clear-Out top on the weekly. It also had a 4 Close Reversal down on the daily.

I expect a move down 1/2 of this week’s Clear-Out range below the low of this week.

Chart - Weekly chart with Clear-Out bar’s 1/2 Range projection lower.

Game Plan -

Wait for buy set ups around the Clear-Out 1/2 Range extension lower at 91.15.

The VRBO “thrust” amount is $1.87. Buy an open plus $1.87 if triggered.

Read more

Introduction

For the past several days, the best trade may have been no trade at all.

With the Federal Reserve announcement looming, patience was the name of the game. Rather than force trades into an uncertain event, I wanted to see what the market would do once the news was out of the way.

Now we have our answer.

The Fed delivered the expected ¼% rate increase—and almost immediately, the markets began revealing some important technical clues. ES briefly made a new pivot low while Nasdaq refused to confirm it. ES also tested the bottom of the August 4 Master Bar, creating a possible Clear-Out of that range. Meanwhile, Crude Oil is dealing with the aftermath of a powerful advance, Gold and Silver are showing different degrees of weakness, and Bonds continue to signal that something important may be developing beneath the surface.

This is where preparation becomes opportunity.

I’m not interested in predicting every move. I’m interested in identifying the levels, patterns and setups that tell me when to act—and when to stand aside.

The Fed is behind us.

Now the waiting is over.

Let’s see what the market gives us.

Here’s what my patterns, trends, and setups are telling me right now.

Below is my mid-week read across the major markets—and, more importantly, the specific levels and setups I will be watching next.

After more than 35 years of watching these markets, I’ve learned that the biggest opportunities often appear when the pattern, trend, and price action suddenly align.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 11.1 %

Gold : Up 0.2 %

Silver : Down 9.8 %

Bitcoin : Down -13 %

ES Futures (9/16/26) -

Zone : BUY Zone

Recap :

ES made a new pivot low - briefly. The Nasdaq did not. In fact the Nasdaq pivot lows for the last two times failed to make lower lows. That is not necessarily bullish. It is divergence with the ES.

ES has been trading within the 8/4 Master Bar’s range. Wednesday showed a possible Clear-Out of that range’s low. This also tested the 2 Bar Flip-Flop low of the previous pivot low.

As was widely expected, the Fed raised 1/4%.

We’ve were stand aside for the week until this announcement. I’ve been saying this may be a Sell or stand aside for the rumor and buy the fact.

Current Setup :

The Long-Term trend is up. The Intermediate trend is down (to sideways).

Game Plan :

I will be buying ORB and VRBO’s. The VRBO range is now 37 points. Buy a move of 37 points above the open of the daily bar.

I’m expecting a move back to the high of the Master Bar around 7,786.

A hard stop is below Wednesday’s low.

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Crude Oil (9/16/26) -

Recap :

Two weeks ago breakout gave me a $110 target on Crude Oil. I like to take profit around the 75% wave projection target. That was just above $103. So, success.

Current Setup :

Crude Oil’s Friday’s low is the bottom of a Demand zone. Friday’s close of $99.99 put it right at 25% of Friday’s range.

Rules : A Close ≥ 25% above the low of the day = “Demand Zone” to consider buyer should price retrace to that level. Reference Crude Oil’s price action on 9/2, 9/3 and 9/4. Vice Versa for “Supply Zones.”

Friday’s low become a “hard stop” for any long term buys.

I’m bullish. I don’t like that the weekly chart gapped above last week’s high on to be trading below the open of the week. Is this an exhaustion move (week).

I think my previous “Buy Zone” of $95.50 - $97.00 is negated now.

Game Plan :

I will buy ORBs and VRBO’s of $1.50 off of the open of the day.

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Here is an article I wrote for the magazine back in 2018. As you can imagine, in the 8 years since I wrote this stocks have rallied. For instance the Nasdaq is up almost 350% since then. This also speaks to the notion of the market having a melt-up. A theme I’ve been talking about for a while in my newsletter.

Here is the article -

Notional Values Change. Does Your System?

As traders, we must change with the times. Unfortunately many system vendors, CTAs and traders don’t. They are trading as if it is still 2013. As we all know, the stock market has had a tremendous run in the last 5—10 years. This has been brought about by financial engineering and artificially low interest rates.

But, that is a story for another time. Astute traders must realize this rally can dramatically change their trading.

STOCK INDICES CHANGES

The graph shows the changes in the notional values of the major stock indices mini futures contracts for the last 5 years.

Notional values are calculated by multiplying contract size by price. For example, ES traded around 2756 in March, 2018. Each point is $50. This yields a notional value of $137,800 ($50 x 2756).

A few highlights from the graph are as follows - Mini SP up 82% to a notional value of $137,800 currently compared to only $75,600 5 years ago. This is an increase over 80%.

The biggest change in the mini Nasdaq contract. Five years ago, it was $56,760. Now, it is $140,900. This rep- resents and increase of almost 250%.

The rest of the stock indices have increased around 75% in the last 5 years. The first thing to do is realize that you are trading a much bigger contract now than 5 years ago.

That seems obvious. But, many system vendors will still recommend trading capital requirements based on 2013 or earlier prices.

Vendors get their “minimum required capital requirements from several methods. The most common of which could be the maximum historical drawdown. This is a one time event and is, well “historical”.

What to do?

Futures Truth uses 5 times recommended margin. Five years ago, this was $14,000 in the Mini Nasdaq. Or, about 25% of notional value. Today, five times margin is $19,800. Sure, margin has increased, but not nearly as much as the notional value. Today the ratio is only 14% of notional value. So, margin has increased. But not nearly enough. Vendors and exchanges want to keep margins low enough to allow as many people as possible to “buy” (trade) their product.

Ultra conservative investors would trade these markets at no leverage. Meaning they would trade 1 contract of mini nasdaq on an account value of $137,800 - the current notional value of the contract.

More aggressive traders could use 2 - 6 times leverage. Meaning divide the contract notional value by 2 - 6. Or, $68,900, $35,225 and $20,833 respectively.

The choice is yours. As always, know what you are trading and do you own research. There may be some good systems out there - of course past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. But, do you own research on the systems and how much you need to trade them.

Lundy Hill

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Top 3 Momentum Commodities for past 1 month

Bitcoin : + 21.6%

Crude Oil : + 20.3%

Soybeans : + 13.2%

Saturday, September 12, 2026

INTRO -

Markets rarely give traders a clean roadmap.

Instead, they leave clues.

This week, those clues are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

ES completed what began as an a-b-c reaction and ultimately developed into an a-b-c-d-e decline, before reversing sharply from new pivot lows. Crude Oil pushed through the psychological $100 level before delivering a powerful reversal. Gold may finally be entering the low-risk buying area I’ve been waiting for. Silver remains trapped in a bearish structure. And Copper and Soybeans are showing why waiting for price to reach the right zone can be more important than chasing a breakout.

But there is a much bigger issue confronting all of these markets.

The Federal Reserve.

The September 15–16 FOMC meeting arrives with markets dramatically repricing the probability of a rate hike. After this week’s inflation data and continued strength in energy prices, futures markets were assigning roughly an 87% probability to a hike as of Friday.

At the same time, crude oil remains around $100, Treasury yields are pressing toward multi-year highs, and geopolitical tensions are adding another layer of uncertainty.

This is exactly the kind of environment where technical patterns can become incredibly valuable.

Because I’m not trying to predict what the Fed will do.

I’m watching what price does after the uncertainty disappears.

Inside this week’s report, I lay out the specific buy zones, breakout levels, demand zones, reversal patterns, and trade triggers I’m watching across ES, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Soybeans and T-Bonds.

And in several markets, I believe the next significant move is already beginning to reveal itself.

The key is knowing where to look—and having the discipline to wait.

ES (9/12/26) — A-B-C-D-E Completed? The Reversal May Be Underway

Current Regimes

Long Term: Bullish
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Short Term: Bullish
Day Trade: Bullish

Recap — The Reaction Got Bigger

Sometimes the market gives you exactly what you’re looking for—just not in the shape you expected.

I was watching for an a-b-c reaction in ES. Instead, the market decided to add a couple more chapters to the story and produced an a-b-c-d-e reaction down.

My mid-week update identified Pattern #5 — the 4 Close Reversal Down. That signal proved to be right on target and helped anticipate the next leg lower.

I also discussed the rule:

“Buy below 3 bars’ lows — IN UPTRENDS.”

But I wasn’t convinced ES was actually in an uptrend at that point.

Good thing.

It wasn’t.

That distinction mattered. The market continued lower, breaking to new pivot lows before something interesting happened.

Current Setup — Now the Plot Thickens

Those new pivot lows didn’t last long.

ES quickly reversed with a 2 Bar Flip-Flop and then produced a Spring of the prior pivot low and the 50-day moving average.

That’s important. We’re now seeing evidence that the downside reaction may have run its course. Even more interesting is what hasn’t happened.

Price continues to respect the 8/4 Wide-Range Master Bar. In fact, the overwhelming majority of both volume and price action remains contained within that bar’s range.

When a market spends this much time inside a major Master Bar, I’m paying attention.

Because eventually, something has to give. And I still believe the eventual resolution could be to the upside.

The Fed Wild Card

Now comes the complicating factor.

The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rate decision arriving Wednesday.

I’ve seen odds as high as 71% for a rate hike.

That creates an interesting possibility:

What if the market has already priced in the bad news?

This could become a classic “sell the rumor, buy the fact” situation.

Markets hate uncertainty. But once the Fed makes its decision, the uncertainty disappears. The market may not like the decision—but at least it knows what it is dealing with.

That’s why I don’t want to guess what happens Tuesday or Wednesday.

I’d rather let the market tell me.

Chart

The chart shows the completed a-b-c-d-e reaction with the 8/4 Master Bar highlighted in yellow.

Game Plan

I’m looking for breakout buys.

My key support level is 7,645.

But here’s the important part:

I’m not trading ES ahead of the FOMC.

I’ll wait for the announcement, let the volatility settle, and then look for the patterns and breakouts that tell me where the real money is trying to go.

Sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t take.

Let the market make the first move. Then we respond.

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Crude Oil (9/12/26) — $100 Hit. Is $110 Next?

Current Regimes

Long Term: Bullish
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Short Term: Bullish

Recap — Target Hit. Now What?

I’ve been bullish Crude Oil for several weeks, and this week’s move gave us another reminder of why I pay attention to price targets and market structure.

My shorter-term target was $100.

On Thursday, Crude finally got there.

Target achieved.

I had also warned Thursday that prices were becoming extended to the upside. The market promptly made its point.

Friday brought a 2.4% sell-off, taking Crude right back to essentially $100, with a low of $99.99.

That’s not necessarily a reason to abandon the bullish thesis.

In fact, it may be exactly what the market needs.

The bigger question now is whether this is simply a healthy reaction before another attempt at higher prices.

My longer-term target remains above $110.

Current Setup — Don’t Chase the Rally

The move into $100 came after two consecutive weeks of range expansion.

And this week’s expansion was even larger than the previous week’s.

That’s a lot of energy being released in a short period of time.

Combine that with the psychological significance of $100, and some profit-taking was almost inevitable.

Friday’s reversal now gives us something very useful:

A clearly defined Supply Zone.

Friday’s high becomes an important level to watch. If Crude can break above that high, it would tell me the bulls have absorbed the selling pressure—and that could be very bullish.

But there’s another clue.

Friday produced a Clear-Out sell-off, suggesting the market may want to probe lower before deciding whether to continue higher.

Friday’s range was approximately $6.

Using that range as a measuring tool, I expect a potential move of roughly ¼ to ½ of Friday’s range below Friday’s low.

Interestingly, that projected area lines up with the intersection of the last two significant up bars.

That’s where things get interesting.

The Buy Zone

On the 4-hour chart, I’m watching for a potential a-b-c reaction into this area.

My preferred buying zone is:

$95.50 – $97.00

This is where I want to see the market come to me.

I don’t want to chase Crude after a $100 breakout.

I want to buy the reaction.

Chart - possible a-b-c pattern on 4 hour chart. Also, buy zone

Game Plan

Move down to the 4-hour and 30-minute charts and look for bullish patterns developing inside the $95.50–$97.00 buy zone.

Clear-outs, reversals, breakouts and other recognizable setups could provide the trigger.

The big picture remains bullish.

The short-term picture simply needs to reset.

And if Crude gives us the pullback I’m looking for, the next question becomes very simple:

Was $100 the destination—or merely a rest stop on the way to $110?

Read more

Written at close of market Wednesday @ 4:00 pm, EST.

Introduction

The market is sending an interesting mix of signals this week. The S&P 500 remains firmly higher for the year, while Gold and Silver are moving in very different directions. Bitcoin remains under pressure, and beneath the surface, several futures markets are developing very different technical setups.

In ES, the long-term trend remains bullish, but the intermediate-term picture has weakened. With price sitting at three-day lows and support holding near 7,632, we may be approaching an important decision point—especially with the FOMC meeting looming next week.

Meanwhile, Crude Oil continues to demonstrate the power of recognizing patterns rather than chasing price, with a 6% rally already this week. Gold is undergoing the retest I was waiting for, Silver is attempting to establish a breakout, and Copper has followed through beautifully on the patterns identified last week.

The common thread?

There are opportunities developing—but the best trades may come from waiting for price to come to us.

Here’s what my patterns, trends, and setups are telling me right now.

Below is my mid-week read across the major markets—and, more importantly, the specific levels and setups I will be watching next.

After more than 35 years of watching these markets, I’ve learned that the biggest opportunities often appear when the pattern, trend, and price action suddenly align.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 11.8 %

Gold : Up 2.1 %

Silver : Down 3.1 %

Bitcoin : Down -10.8 %

ES Futures (9/9/26) -

Zone : BUY Zone

Recap :

My a-b-c correction, which I thought marked the reaction low in ES, might be turning into an a-b-c-d-e correction.

The charts are giving mostly bullish signals with some bearish ones as well.

Current Setup :

Wednesday showed a 4 Close Reversal down pattern. Price is finding support at my previously noted range around 7,632.

Wednesday does mark the 3rd down day in a row. Twice before in the reaction, that was the limit before an up move - big and small.

Price is at 3 day lows. One of my rules from last week was to buy 3 day lows in an uptrend. The question is, is ES in an Uptrend? The daily is. The intermediate term is not.

The weekly charts are congesting with no clear breakouts.

With an imminent key FOMC meeting next week, maybe traders are just waiting for that.

Game Plan :

I will be taking “nibbles” long on Breakouts and Clear-Outs.

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Crude Oil (9/9/26) -

Recap :

My small Crude Oil Head-and-Shoulders pattern reached its full target last week. I maintained a bullish stance thanks to last week’s Wide-Range weekly breakout of the downtrend.

I have a longer term target on Crude Oil of $100 in next 3 - 5 weeks.

Last week I said to go with ORB’s and VRBO’s (Volatility Range Break Outs). This worked nicely

Current Setup :

Crude Oil has rallied 6% so far this week; starting with a Gap up open Tuesday above Friday’s (the previous trading day) high. This CAN make the gap “extra” bullish.

Rule : Gaps above / below the prior day’s range can be “extra” bullish / bearish.

This did provide some heat if you got long on the open - something I rarely recommend. Instead price had a “Red Line Clear-Out.”

Red Line Clear-Out (bullish) : price gaps up open, stalls and pulls back to the prior day’s close (the red line). Price quickly tests that level; get rejected and rallies.

Game Plan :

Crude Oil price may be extended here. I don’t chase markets. That is FOMO - FEAR of Missing Out. Instead, I will be alert for buy patterns at the intersection of the last two Wide-Range bars; 94.73 - 92.76.

Read more

The market doesn’t always make its next move obvious. Sometimes it whispers. Sometimes it throws conflicting signals at you. And occasionally, the patterns practically shout.

This week, several of the markets I follow did exactly that.

ES completed the a-b-c reaction I’ve been watching, with the market bottoming almost exactly where I expected it to. A pattern I’ve relied on for years then appeared to signal that the temporary low was in. The important question now isn’t whether the correction is over—it’s how to participate if the next leg higher develops.

Crude Oil provided another excellent example of why I pay so much attention to Clear-Outs, NR days and breakout structures. A setup identified earlier in the week produced exactly the type of opportunity I’m looking for as a short-term futures trader.

And that’s only what’s happening above the paywall.

Inside this week’s full report, I take you through ES, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, Soybeans and Bitcoin—market by market—with the patterns, levels and potential setups I believe matter most going into next week.

You’ll see where I’m looking to buy breakouts, where Clear-Outs could create opportunities, which markets may need more backing and filling, and where I’m standing aside entirely.

Most importantly, I’m not simply telling you what I think will happen.

I’m showing you what I’m watching for—and what would make me act.

That’s the difference between having a market opinion and having a trading plan.

If you’re serious about becoming a more disciplined futures trader, that’s what you’ll find inside Lundy’s Trading Pit each week:

Less prediction. More preparation.
Less noise. More patterns.
Less guessing. More execution.

Let’s get into this week’s markets.

If you want to see the specific levels, patterns and game plans I’m using for next week, this is the update you’ll want to read.

Subscribers receive the complete market analysis, annotated charts, trading setups, and specific game plans for ES, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Copper, Soybeans, Bitcoin, and more.

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ES Futures (9/4/26) — The A-B-C Reaction Has Completed

Current Regimes

Long Term: Bullish
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Short Term: Bullish
Day Trade: Bearish

Recap

The ES correction I’ve been patiently waiting for has finally done its job.

For the past several weeks, I’ve maintained a longer-term bullish bias while waiting for the a-b-c reaction to complete. Now, I believe it has.

And the market gave us some pretty good evidence.

Last week, I identified the 7,600–7,650 zone as an important area for a potential low—and I got even more specific, calling for 7,632.

ES bottomed at 7,618.

Close enough.

But the price level was only part of the story.

ES had been reacting off the August 20 “Master” bar, and Wednesday delivered an important Clear-Out of that bar’s low. In my Mid-Week update, I suggested that the next destination could be the top of the August 20 range.

Once again, ES delivered.

There was another setup hiding in plain sight.

In an uptrend, one of my favorite areas to look for a long entry is below the lowest low of the prior three bars. It works on both daily and weekly charts—and this week, ES demonstrated the setup beautifully.

A Simple Rule Worth Remembering

Buy below the 3-bar low in an uptrend.
Sell above the 3-bar high in a downtrend.

Simple doesn’t mean insignificant.

Some of the best trades come from recognizing these recurring behaviors when they occur in the right market environment.

Current Setup

Thursday added another piece to the puzzle.

We got a Pattern #5 — 4 Close Reversal to the upside.

That pattern tells me the market has likely established a temporary low.

At the same time, the intermediate-term trend is beginning to turn upward, with price breaking back above it.

That’s bullish.

Friday then printed an Inside Day.

Perhaps that’s simply a function of the holiday-shortened week. But I’ll still pay attention to it.

The market has completed its correction.

Now I want to see whether it can prove that the next leg higher is beginning.

Chart -

“a-b-c” reaction down with 100% target zone above 8,100. Air zone @ 9/3 bar. Not so much a “3 Day Equilibrium” as a “Clear-Out” with follow through up.

Game Plan

I’m looking for two things:

Breakouts.

And Clear-Outs of Friday’s low.

Those are the areas where I believe the next actionable opportunity could develop.

The chart tells the story: the completed a-b-c reaction, the 75–100% target zone, and the Air Zone created by the September 3 bar.

The correction has done what I wanted it to do.

Now ES has a chance to show us what comes next.

Crude Oil (9/4/26) -

Current Regimes -

Long Term: Bullish

Intermediate Term: Bullish

Short Term: Bullish

Recap -

I had previously been keying off of Crude Oil’s small “Head-and-Shoulders” breakout pattern on the daily bars. That pattern worked out successfully; reaching it 100% move target.

My mid-week update called for buying the “Clear-Out” of Wednesday’s NR day. That is exactly what Friday delivered. Friday opened with a dramatic 1 bar (30 minute) sell-off going .25 cents below Wednesday’s low. This was a Spring setup. Crude Oil prices promptly rebounded and gave an ORB buy around 90.50.

Current Setup -

This week had a Wide-Range, expansion bar breakout of the weekly downtrend going back to the April highs.

Prices are near the July pivot highs. This could be some resistance to further price advances.

The last three bars all have large bottom tails below $90. This provides a good “line in the sand” for any longs.

Chart - chart of weekly triangle breakout up and upside target from last week.

Game Plan -

Go with breakouts via ORB’s and VRBOs.

Read more

The Setups Are Changing — And So Is the Opportunity

The market doesn’t always make its intentions obvious. But every now and then, the patterns begin lining up so clearly that you have to pay attention.

That’s what happened this week.

My weekend analysis turned short-term bearish on ES, and the market followed the roadmap almost point for point. The 8/20 Master Bar, the Clear-Out, the larger A-B-C reaction, and my trend structures all pointed toward lower prices. My target was 7,632. ES traded to 7,618.

That’s not prediction. That’s recognizing probabilities.

But now the game is changing again.

ES has reached an important Fibonacci retracement zone, while Crude Oil is demonstrating surprising underlying strength. Gold has experienced a violent correction but is beginning to show signs of a potential bottom. Silver, however, is telling me to stay away. Copper and Bitcoin continue to show strength, while Soybeans hit the exact upside target I laid out last weekend before reversing.

This is where trading gets interesting.

The opportunities are there—but so are the traps.

Here’s what my patterns, trends, and setups are telling me right now.

Below is my mid-week read across the major markets—and, more importantly, the specific levels and setups I will be watching next.

After more than 35 years of watching these markets, I’ve learned that the biggest opportunities often appear when the pattern, trend, and price action suddenly align.

Year-to-Date - Since 12/31/2025

S & P 500 : Up + 12.2 %

Gold : Up 1 %

Silver : Down 7.7 %

Bitcoin : Down -12 %

ES Futures (9/2/26) -

Zone : BUY Zone

Recap :

My weekend update was packed full of trading “gems” that called the ES market exactly. I warned that I was turning short-term bearish.

I have been keying off of the 8/20 “Master Bar.” Friday’s Clear-Out of that day’s high suggested a move back down to the low of that bar. Which the ES delivered upon.

My Short and Intermediate term trend structures pointed lower. Yes!

I called for a “C” leg down in the larger A-B-C pattern reaction to a low in the 7,600 - 7,650 range. Specifically, I was targeting the 7,632 price. Today, prices showed a potential bottom at 7,618. Spot on!

I alerted reader to trade a Clear-Out of a prior days low.

Current Setup :

Wednesday produced that Clear-Out of Tuesday’s low. Tuesday was a Wide-Range down bar in a reaction to an uptrend.

Rule : Buy below the low of a Wide Range down bar in an Uptrend.

Price has pulled back to the Fib38 - 50% of the late July - early August rally. A great spot to take nibbles long.

Price is still well below the open of this week. That gives me pause of taking any high risk longs.

Game Plan :

Buy breakouts via ORB with tight stops.

Crude Oil (9/2/26) -

Recap :

The mid August rally in Crude Oil showed the underlying strength of this market. Then the 8/25 Wide Range sell-off bar made me double think that. That turned out to be an over reaction to some news.

I’ve had a “Head-and-Shoulders” pattern in play in Crude Oil for some time. This week has reasserted that pattern. In fact, using the retest of the “Neckline” as the starting point, Crude Oil has reached to patterns 100% target; almost to the penny.

Last week ended with an Inside Day on Friday. These can be key market decision points. This was no different. Monday gapped up completely above Friday’s range. This shows major market strength.

Current Setup :

Crude Oil has completed the small Head-and-Shoulder pattern’s target.

Price is also within the range of the high bar of the last major pivot high. I suspect some kind of reaction lower in price is warranted.

Zooming out to the weekly chart, price has decisively broken the down trend line stretching back to the April highs. The weekly chart also showed a nice 2 Bar Flip-Flop around its trend at 76.25 the first weeks of July.

Game Plan :

I will take nibble’s long via ORBs; and also Clear-Outs of Wednesday’s NR (Narrow Range) day low.

Read more