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The Blue Raiders are currently situated at 4-4 overall and 2-2 in Conference USA play. For homecoming this week, they will square off with the Hilltoppers of WKU. The Tops are also 2-2 in league play, but they are 3-5 when it comes to the overall record.

Here is the rundown for this week for CUSA play:

Delaware (4-4, 2-2) at Kennesaw State (2-6, 1-3)

• Saturday, November 7

• 2 PM Central Time

• ESPN Plus

• Delaware -2.5

• O/U: 56.5

• ESPN: Delaware 52.2 percent chance to win

Western Kentucky (3-5, 2-2) at MTSU (4-4, 2-2)

• Saturday, November 7

• 2:30 Central Time

• ESPN Plus

• MT -1.5

• O/U 53.5

• ESPN: WKU 55.1 percent chance to win

Missouri State (3-5, 2-2) at FIU (3-5, 1-3)

• Saturday, November 7

• 3 PM Central Time

• ESPN Plus

• FIU -4

• O/U 50.5

• ESPN: FIU 61.8 percent chance to win

Sam Houston State (1-7, 0-4) at Jacksonville State (6-2, 4-0)

• Saturday, November 7

• 6 PM Central Time

• CBS Sports Network

• JSU -16.5

• O/U 48.5

• ESPN: JSU 86.2 percent chance to win

Liberty (7-1, 4-0) at NMSU (3-5, 2-2)

• Saturday, November 7

• 7 PM Central Time

• ESPNU

• Liberty -17.5

• O/U 46.5

• ESPN: Liberty 88.6 percent chance to win

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Here are the staff picks!

Matthew Dossett: 5-1 on the season

For me, this game is a tough one to get an objective read on. Yes, both teams are 3-3 overall and 1-1 in league play. Despite that, I think on paper, FIU is the better team. The FIU defense has flexed its’ muscles so far this season. The most points that they’ve given up in a single game was 27 in a 24-27 loss at Jacksonville State, a team that can make an argument as the cream of the crop in CUSA.

In their other two defeats, they gave up just 16 to FAU, and 19 to South Florida. You know the saying, defense travels, and FIU has a stout defense that shows up week in and week out.

The over/under is currently 45.5. I think that is somewhat accurate and in the ballpark. I think that FIU’s defense was put the clamps on Roman Gagliano and the MT offense. On the flip side, I think the defense for MT will bow up and have some success. Look for this to be a defensive slug fest. I think MTSU will cover, but ultimately lose the ballgame.

FIU: 20

MTSU 14

Rhett Glenn: 5-1 on the season

Middle Tennessee heads to South Florida on Tuesday looking to build momentum after a dramatic victory over Delaware, but the Blue Raiders face a difficult challenge against a Florida International team that has emerged as one of Conference USA’s better defensive squads.

MTSU’s offense will need a bounce-back performance from quarterback Roman Gagliano, who has shown the ability to protect the football and make plays with his arm. Running back Antonio Martin Jr. and receiver Cam’ron Lacy will be key to keeping the Panthers’ defense from controlling the game.

FIU enters the matchup with a defense that has been stingy in recent weeks, but its offense has struggled with consistency. Quarterback JJ Kohl’s ability to avoid turnovers and capitalize on scoring opportunities could determine whether the Panthers pull away or allow MTSU to hang around.

The Blue Raiders will need to avoid the costly mistakes that plagued them in last season’s 56-30 loss to FIU. Playing on the road against a disciplined defense leaves little room for error, especially if MTSU struggles to establish its running game.

Expect a competitive, lower-scoring contest early, with FIU’s defensive pressure and home-field advantage proving decisive late.

FIU 24

MTSU 20

The spread for the game is currently situated at 10.5 in favor of the Panthers, and ESPN gives the Blue Raiders just an 18.9 percent chance to walk out of the Sunshine State with the victory.

For this edition of the behind enemy lines, we talked to Kevin Barral, who is on the beat for FIU football.

Here is the transcript:

Thoughts on FIU so far this season? What were your expectations before the season? Are they meeting the expectations?

FIU has the record I expected going into the season. All losses have been very close ones where penalties or lack of execution at times have hurt them and been the reason for some of the losses.

Give me some players on O and D to watch for. Who are the playmakers?

Offense: Maguire Anderson has been the main contributor for FIU this season offensively. Leads the conference in receiving yards and has been the Panthers most consistent wide receiver. Quarterback JJ Kohl is coming off his best game of the season with a season-best 63.2% completion rate and two touchdowns, both to Anderson. Running back Devonte Lyons is now FIU’s starting running back, so expect him to get the majority of the reps.

Defense: Defensive lineman DeeJay Holmes Jr. started the season with a five game sack streak, snapped at Jax State. He will be a major factor in this game as they try to get to Roman Gagliano. Cornerback Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine has been one of the best coverage corners in CUSA, likely will be lined up against Lacey. FIU likes to play four linebackers, so they will all play on Saturday.

Where would you set the spread? Does FIU cover?

Saw it was -10.5 towards FIU, and I think that’s fair. Panthers cover.

Weaknesses MT can attack? on the flip side, areas FIU can have success in?

MTSU can likely attack through the air, where the Panthers cornerbacks have been somewhat inconsistent this season. On the flip side, I can see FIU having one of their best performances on the ground this season given the Blue Raiders’ struggles stopping the run.

Obviously the game is at FIU? What time of home field advantage will they have?

If it doesn’t rain and the students show out, it will be a good atmosphere, but there very much could be the chance it’s a lower turnout due to the WeekDay CUSA.

Prediction? How will the game go? Score?

FIU will come out and defeat MTSU, 38-10. Panthers aren’t happy with how last week ended and they still need to put up a big offensive performance. That comes at home against MTSU.

Payne was offered by the Middle Tennessee State staff back in June. From the jump, when we spoke to Payne, he mentioned there is a certain position that MT is recruiting him as.

“MTSU is recruiting me as a defensive end,” he said.

“They use their defensive ends in a lot of ways, which I think is pretty unique,” he said.

Payne got the opportunity to visit the Boro for a game, getting to see what the program has to offer, along with all the bells and whistles .

“The visit to MTSU was great,” Payne said.

“I had the chance to get a quick tour of the new athletic building, and was able to see the new weight room, which was really nice. I also was able to meet and talk to several of the coaches before the game.”

Payne said that he was personally watching to see how the defensive ends performed, and that he liked what he saw.

“I was mainly watching the defensive end group with coach Smith,” he said.

“I was able to see how he interacted with his players. He always brings the energy with his guys, which I love to see! I noticed in warm-ups, he had a handshake with almost every guy on the team, and he didn’t mess a single one up. I felt like that shows the connection he really has with all the players.”

Payne said that there is one coach that is spearheading his recruitment.

“Coach Smith has been the coach recruiting me,” Payne said.

“The pitch has been how MTSU is close to home, and how the team is more like family than a business, which is rare is this time in college football.”

Payne divulged that he is currently hearing from a bevy of programs.

“I’m currently hearing from a lot of schools right now, but I’m hearing the most from Miami of Ohio, App State, WKU, Arkansas State, UConn, and Arkansas.”

Payne said that he has a few visits to other programs lined up.

“I have currently already visited Miami of Ohio, App State, WKU, Austin Peay, and MTSU,” he said.

“I’m likely going to end all my visits with Arkansas, Arkansas State, UConn, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.”

Houston Payne highlights

Johnson indicated in the interview that he has been …

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Here are the staff picks!

Matt Dossett: 4-1 on the season

I mentioned this in my three keys and a pick article, but I do not agree with the spread and the chances ESPN gives MTSU to win the game. The spread has been fluctuating a tad, going from -3 Delaware, to -1.5 in favor of Delaware.

ESPN gives the Blue Raiders a 36.6 percent chance to win the game. I think this is a tad low. Yes, MTSU struggled mightily at Kansas, but Delaware is not Kansas, and this strikes me as a game that gets MTSU back on track.

When going up and down the rosters, I think that Tuesday will be an even match. Delaware QB Nick Minicucci is a decent player but not some sort of game breaker. He is only completing roughly 57 percent of his passes and has five touchdowns to three interceptions. Jo Silver is the bell cow tailback for the Hens. He is averaging 4.1 yards a carry and is a guy that MT needs to keep tabs on.

I think MT signal caller Roman Gagliano gets back on track in this one. Look for MT to open the game with some easy, layup passes to get the passing game established. This should be a seesaw affair, and I don’t think it will be decided until late in the fourth quarter.

In the end, MTSU gets a win and gets to .500 in league play and overall.

MTSU 27

Delaware 23

Rhett Glenn: 4-1 on the season

Middle Tennessee returns to Floyd Stadium Tuesday night looking to bounce back from consecutive losses to Jacksonville State and Kansas.

The Blue Raiders (2-3) desperately need a win to build momentum in Conference USA play. Running back Antonio Martin Jr. could be the key, as MTSU looks to establish its ground game and take pressure off quarterback Roman Gagliano.

Delaware (2-3) enters Murfreesboro after back-to-back losses of its own. The Blue Hens defeated MTSU 31-28 last season, giving the Blue Raiders extra motivation for Tuesday’s matchup.

With both teams searching for their first conference victory, expect a competitive game.

MTSU 27

Delaware 23

Both the Hens and the Blue Raiders are 2-3 overall and sitting at 0-1 in CUSA play. ESPN gives MTSU a 36.6 percent chance to come out with a victory.

Now it is time for Matt Dossett’s three keys and a prediction!

Get Roman Gagliano Back On Track

I touched on it in a previous article, MTSU signal caller Roman Gagliano struggled big time against the Jayhawks of Kansas, on the road in Lawrence. Up until that game, Gagliano had success slinging the football around at an efficient level. For whatever reason, things skidded off the rails in Lawerence, as he was pressured and hit early and often.

This week it is paramount that Middle Tennessee State starts off on the right foot, and allows Gagliano to regain his confidence and his composure. I think that to accomplish this, MT might need to open up the game with some easy-level throws. That may be a couple of short slant routes, or possibly some bubble screens, to get him some easy completions.

I think it is also imperative that the Blue Raiders commit to and establish the ground game so the offense is not totally dependent on Gagliano and the passing attack. That means having success with a ground attack of Antonio Martin and Terrence Brown. This will require the big fellas up front to get some push, something they had zero success with against Kansas.

It is a good thing that Delaware’s defensive front is not the Kansas defensive front; apples to oranges there. I think that this game could ultimately hinge on Gagliano’s play. We will see if he answers the bell.

Make The Hens One Dimensional

I think that there are two ways of pushing the envelope and making Delaware one dimensional, one way or the other. I think that MT can push in their chips defensively and sell out to stop the run, making the Hens beat them with the play of QB Nick Minicucci. After all, Minicucci has not exactly lit the world on fire with his arm.

Minicucci is just completing 57.3 percent of his throws and has five touchdown throws against three interceptions.

On the flip side, you could drop the protection with the linebackers and defensive backs, making Delaware prove they can have success with the ground attack. Then Hens have just amounted 494 yards on 151 carries in five games. That totals to 3.3 yards a carry.

The over/under is currently situated at 48.5. I think the magic number of points to win the game will be 26 or so. If MT can hold Delaware to 20 points or less, I think they will walk out of Floyd with the win. Can they accomplish this? That is yet to be seen!

Win The Fourth Quarter And Get The Crowd Involved

I have harped on this over and over and over, but I think it is worth making this part of my third and final key. The Blue Raiders need to go out there and prove they are capable of flipping the tables and holding the advantage in the second half, yes, but especially the fourth and final quarter.

I think that is is extremely important to have a good fourth quarter, and also get the home fans involved. If MTSU is having a good final period I think they may also get some juice from the home crowd. I think that the fans could be a crucial factor that gets the Blue Raiders across the finish line. If things are going downhill late, I doubt the crowd will be helpful to the Blue Raiders.

I think that athletes, especially college level athletes, feed off the energy of a rowdy home audience. A loud environment may help MT get that third or fourth down stop late in the contest.

Prediction

I disagree with ESPN’s notion that MTSU has just a 36.6 percent chance to win the game. I think it is considerably higher than that mark. I also disagree with the current spread that says Delaware is a three-point favorite. I think that MTSU will cover and win outright.

It won’t be easy, and it won’t be pretty, but give me Middle Tennessee State to even the score and go to 3-3 overall and 1-1 in league play.

MTSU 27

Delaware 23

Delaware (2-3, 0-1) at MTSU (2-3, 0-1)

• Tuesday, October 13

• 6 PM Central. CBS Sports Network

• MTSU 36 percent chance to win

MTSU at Florida International

• Tuesday, October 20

• 6 PM Central. CBS Sports Network

• MTSU 21.6 percent chance to win

Kennesaw State at MTSU

• Wednesday, October 28

• 6 PM Central. CBS Sports Network

• MTSU 29.6 percent chance to win

WKU at MTSU

• Saturday, November 7

• 230 Central Time. ESPN Plus

• MTSU 42.8 percent chance to win

MTSU at Liberty

• Saturday, November 14

• 230 Central. CBS Sports Network

• MTSU 7.3 percent chance to win

MTSU at Sam Houston State

• Saturday, November 21

• 1 PM. ESPN Plus

• MTSU 22 percent chance to win

NMSU at MTSU

• Saturday, November 28

• 1 PM Central Time. ESPN Plus

• MTSU. 35.9 percent chance to win

The Kansas Game Was Ugly

Heading into the game in Lawrence, Kansas, I thought that the Blue Raiders had a puncher’s chance to tap into some magic and make the road game interesting. After all, there have been out of conference games against power conference teams where MTSU came out victorious. About 15 years ago, the Blue Raiders went into Atlanta, and shellacked the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. There were also games at Missouri and at Miami where MTSU came out victorious.

Early on in the game against Kansas, I thought maybe the Blue Raiders could show some resiliency and make the game intriguing. I mean they were only down 3-0 after one quarter. In the end, the game went completely off the rails, and MTSU was pounded into the dirt, and were shut out in a 55-0 romping.

As evidenced by my pick for the game last week, I didn’t expect the Blue Raiders to win, heck, I even knew that they wouldn’t cover the 19.5 point spread. All that aside, last Saturday was pitiful. QB Roman Gagliano struggled mightily with his usually steady accuracy, completing just nine of 26 balls for a measly 81 yards. He also didn’t get help from his running back comrades. MT rushed the ball for just 55 yards on 16 carries, which amounts to 3.4 yards a pop.

Defensively, they could not stop a nose bleed. The Jayhawks approached the 500 yard mark when it came to rushing, bludgeoning MT for 480 yards. They also threw the ball for 226 yards.

I think that it is safe to question the fight in the Blue Raiders last Saturday. At some point there needs to be some pride and effort to not get absolutely embarrassed. I also think it is safe to question the psyche of MT after getting battered, bruised and humiliated on national TV.

There Is a Chance To Turn The Ship Around

We obviously touched on the fact that MTSU was throttled into oblivion by the Jayhawks. That being said, there is indeed opportunity looming for the Blue Raiders. After all, two of MT’s three losses so far were out of conference opponents, and all of the losses came on the road, away from the friendly confines of Floyd Stadium.

Next week, when MTSU returns to play, they get a second opportunity to win a conference game, this time at Floyd Stadium, on a Tuesday evening against Delaware. Looking in the rearview mirror, I don’t think the one CUSA loss to Jacksonville State was all that bad. I think Jax State is in the upper echelon of Conference USA, and MT had an opportunity to capitalize and hang in there late in the game.

Going forward, Middle Tennessee needs to shake off the cobwebs from the Kansas game and get back on the winning track. Next week’s game against Delaware presents a great opportunity to get back in the winning column. Like MTSU, Delaware is also 2-3 overall and 0-1 in league play.

Also like MT, they were also embarrassed in one of their out of conference games. They were dominated by 39 points on the road against the Cavaliers of Virginia.

I said it before the season, MT’s schedule is not that daunting and isn’t exactly murderers row. Before the season, I chalked up the Marshall game and the Kansas game as losses. The only game left I have penciled in as a loss for sure is on the road at Liberty. There are a ton of tossup games going forward. The games against Delaware, FIU, Kennesaw State, WKU, Sam Houston and NMSU are all very winnable.

Resetting The Slate

We touched on it earlier, but I think that it is worth reemphasizing, Middle Tennessee State needs to somehow refresh the page, put the Kansas game in the rearview mirror going forward, and get back to competing and showing up on the gridiron.

I questioned where MT’s psyche is at the moment, but I also question the head space of QB Roman Gagliano. Sometimes things can snowball after poor performances and it is fair to question where Gagliano is at after last Saturday’s showing.

Another thing to factor in is propensity to blow games late in the fourth quarter. I’m not just talking about this season. During Derek Mason’s tenure, there have been games where MTSU had a chance to get the victory only to fall short. I mentioned earlier that there are a ton of tossup games left on the docket. I think MT will be in the majority of the remaining games, but can they get over the hump? That is the million dollar question. I think that winning can be contagious and I think MT can establish a rhythm after a couple of nail biting wins.

This week, each CUSA game will be in the spotlight in the middle of the week. On Wednesday JSU goes to Kennesaw State and NMSU goes to FIU.

On Thursday Sam Houston travels to Liberty and Missouri State goes to Bowling Green, Kentucky to play WKU.

Here’s the breakdown:

Jacksonville State (3-2, 1-0) at Kennesaw State (1-3, 0-0)

• Wednesday, October 7

• 6 PM Central Time

• CBS Sports Network

• Jax State -3

• O/U 50.5

• ESPN: Kennesaw 52.8 percent chance to win

NMSU (2-3, 1-0) at FIU (2-2, 0-0)

• Wednesday, October 7

• 6:30 PM Central Time

• ESPN 2

• FIU -6

• O/U 46.5

• ESPN: FIU 63.2 percent chance to win

Sam Houston State (1-3, 0-0) at Liberty (4-1, 1-0)

• Thursday, October 8

• 6 PM Central Time

• ESPNU

• Liberty -13.5

• O/U 52.5

• ESPN: Liberty 82.4 percent chance to win

Missouri State (1-3, 0-0) at Western Kentucky (1-4, 0-1)

• Thursday, October 8

• 6 PM Central Time

• CBS Sports Network

• WKU -2.5

• O/U 56.5

• ESPN: Missouri State 54.8 percent chance to win

Matt Dossett: 3-1 on the season

To me, this game has some mystique and some mystery to it. On the surface, yes, Kansas is a power conference team, but how good of a power conference team are they? I think that has yet to be determined. They have lost both games against teams that actually have a pulse, in Missouri and Arizona State, at home.

I think that if you are a fan of the Blue Raiders, you are hoping this one shapes up like the Missouri game from 2016, or even the game at Miami a few seasons ago. What I mean is that you go to a power conference team’s home yard and get the win.

Kansas is a team that has struggled offensively. Their quarterbacks are completing just 55 percent of their passes. Isaiah Marshall has just five touchdowns against three picks. The offensive line has done a decent job protecting the signal callers, only giving up five sacks in three games.

I think that MTSU can attack the Jayhawks’ defense and have some success moving the chains. Look for MTSU and Roman Gagliano to have success early, but I think that as the game progresses, Kansas will stifle the MT’s offensive attack.

Look for MTSU’s defense to hold up for most of the game. I think the dam will break in the fourth quarter. Football is a game of the Jimmies and the Joes and Kansas has a more talented roster.

Give me the Jayhawks to cover the 18.5 point spread.

Kansas 38

MTSU 17

Rhett Glenn: 3-1 on the season

MTSU heads to Lawrence Saturday for its biggest test of the season against Kansas.

The Blue Raiders enter at 2-2 after last week’s 23-13 loss to Jax State. Quarterback Roman Gagliano has emerged as a steady playmaker, while running back Antonio Martin Jr. and receiver Cam’ron Lacy gives MTSU plenty of offensive firepower.

Kansas’ size and depth, particularly along the lines, will make this a difficult matchup. MTSU should be able to move the ball and keep the game competitive early, but the Jayhawks’ depth should take over in the second half.

Kansas 34

MTSU 20

Next up on the docket is a road trip to Lawrence, Kansas, as MT will square off with the Jayhawks of Kansas.

As it currently stands, MT is a 18.5 point dog against Rock Chalk, and the over/under is 49.5. ESPN gives MT a 10.8 point chance to win the game.

For this edition of the Behind Enemy Lines piece, we spoke to Jon Kirby, of Jayhawk Slant, getting the scoop on what his thoughts are for the game!

Here is the conversation:

1. The Jayhawks are 1-2, with losses to Missouri and Arizona State. Prior to the season, did you have those two games chalked up as losses? What was your season prediction? Are you standing pat with your prediction or are you altering it at this point?

Yes it was always a possibility to start with a 1-2 record. Missouri is a good SEC team and was in the Top 25 and Arizona State is a solid Big 12 team. The game in London was going to be one that could go either way.

I said going into the season a win prediction total was going to be very difficult. When you have over half of your new scholarship players on a roster and then trying to diagnose all of the new players your opponents have makes it hard for preseason predictions.

After watching the Big 12 there are going to be games Kansas can win but they need to clean up mistakes.

2. Where would you set the spread for this game? Do you think they cover the spread, or not?

Again, it is hard to say based off the inconsistency of what we have seen from Kansas but also the potential. Coming off of a bye week and in front of a sellout crowd you have to assume they will be ready to play. Kansas is the better team so I would probably set the line close to where it is or around the 17 point mark.

3. Will this be a low scoring or high scoring affair? How do you see the game going in terms of points on the board?

It depends on how the game will be played. Is Kansas going to try to establish the ground game? Will both teams move the ball on the ground keeping it more low scoring?

4. Guys to watch offensively and defensively for KU? Who are the playmakers MT fans should know about?

Offensively quarterback Isaiah Marshall won the job and this is his first year starting. Against Arizona State he started to find a groove in the second half and looked pretty good especially when they went to the hurry up no huddle offense. Dylan Edwards is now expected to get a lot of the work at running back and he’s a shifty player in the open field who can make things happen.

At wide receiver Nik McMillan has been the go-to guy with the injury of Cam Pickett.

Defensively they have been pretty good up front and Leroy Harris is the guy to watch. Linebacker Trey Lathan is a team captain and probably the one of the two most productive players on defense.

5. What are some vulnerabilities or weaknesses MTSU can exploit? Inversely, what are some areas KU can expose against MTSU?

Kansas has been their worst own enemy especially with the turnover margin. Physically they were the better team against Arizona State but turnovers cost them the game. The Kansas secondary has struggled but did play better against Arizona State.

The offensive line has been inconsistent and they may shuffle things around this week with that group.

6. Do you expect the crowd to be a factor? Will it be a mellow or rowdy crowd?

The new stadium is still under construction and will be completed in 2027. This year they are playing with a capacity of 31,000 and this is parents weekend and the game has been announced as a sellout. They are calling for ideal weather so it should be a good atmosphere.

7. Game prediction? How will the game go? Score prediction?

This game really comes down to Kansas. Can they clean up mistakes and take care of the football and some of the things that have hurt them in the previous two games? Kansas is the better team and if they come out and limit mistakes, I like the Jayhawks in this one.

The next day, on Friday, 3-1 Liberty goes to 2-2 Delaware. That game is also on CBS Sports Network. After that, MTSU goes to Kansas, the one CUSA game that is played on Saturday.

Here is the rundown:

Western Kentucky (1-3, 0-0) at NMSU (1-3, 0-0)

• Thursday, October 1

• 7 PM Central Time

• CBS Sports Network

• NMSU -2.5

• O/U 55.5

• ESPN: NMSU 51.3 percent chance to win

Liberty (3-1, 0-0) at Delaware (2-2, 0-0)

• Friday October 2

• 6 PM Central Time

• CBS Sports Network

• Liberty -7

• O/U 48.5

• ESPN: Liberty 65.2 percent chance to win

Middle Tennessee State (2-2,. 0-1) at Kansas (1-2)

• Saturday October 3

• 11 AM Central Time

• ESPNU

• KU -18.5

• O/U 50.5

• ESPN: MTSU 10.8 percent chance to win

Now is the time for the staff picks for Saturday evening’s game:

Matt Dossett: 3-0 on the season

I think if you told fans of Middle Tennessee State prior to the season that MTSU would start out 2-1 out of the gates, I think most fans would take that. After all, a lot of fans speculated that the Blue Raiders would win in the ballpark of three total games this season.

In this road game, what scares me the most is JSU QB Caden Creel. Caden is the definition of a dual threat quarterback, and can do major damage with his arm and his legs. When it comes to the aerial attack, Creel has completed 68 of 99 passes and has eight touchdown throws against two interceptions. Creel has already thrown for 871 total yards. He has also ran for 256 yards and two additional touchdowns.

Outside of Creel, JSU’s biggest rushing threat is Jalen Likely, the diminutive 5’8, 190 pound running back, who is averaging six yards a pop.

I do think MT can capitalize when it comes to exploiting the Gamecocks defense. The Gamecocks have a stiff, bend but don’t break defense, but look for MTSU to have some success against that unit.

I said prior to the season, MT would win some games they are not favored in. I think this week is another one of those games. I’m going to ride with the Blue Raiders Saturday. Jacksonville State does have an opportunistic defense that has seven sacks and four interceptions at this juncture.

Linebacker Walker O’Steen is the leader in clubhouse for tackles with 29 total tackles. Last week JSU allowed Georgia Southern to rush for 182 yards on 23 attempts, amounting to 8.1 yards a carry. Look for MT’s running backs to see some success on the ground.

This will be a tightly contested game, one that will go down to the wire. I said last week that a Nevada win would be the biggest victory of the Mason era. If MT wins this weekend, it would surpass last week’s win.

Again, I have MT winning this game.

MTSU 34

Jacksonville State 30

Rhett Glenn: 2-1 on the season

MTSU heads into its first Conference USA game of the season Saturday against Jacksonville State.

The Blue Raiders are 2-1 on the season. Surprisingly, MTSU is 3-0 against the spread so far after beating Nevada 27-20 last week. Vegas still hasn’t learned its lesson, with the Gamecocks opening as an 8.5-point favorite.

I think MTSU keeps this one close, but Jacksonville State’s home-field advantage gives the Gamecocks the edge. If this game were in Murfreesboro, I would feel differently. The Blue Raiders cover but fall short on the road.

Jacksonville State 31

MTSU 24

Here is the chat!

What was your prediction for JSU prior to the season? Have they met your expectations?

It’s always hard to set expectations for G6 teams with the transfer portal, especially in Conference USA where the best players move year in and year out. As I said throughout the preseason, I thought Jax State returned a better “core group” than anyone in Conference USA and had a chance to win the league. Non-conference play is always a wildcard in this league, so you never really know the true trajectory of a season until you reach conference play. I still think the Gamecocks are team that can win the league, but Delaware is looking like the frontrunner right now.

Where would you set the line and the O/U for this game? Will JSU cover?

I’d put Jax State at around a touchdown favorite at home, and I do think they’ll cover. Hard to place an over-under… maybe 51.5? I’d take the over on that one, but you never know.

Standouts to watch on offense and defense?

Quarterback Caden Creel has carried a heavy load for Jax State through the first four games and leads the team in rushing heading into Saturday. Deondre Johnson, who’s 6-foot-8, has earned all the attention in the preseason as a top player in Conference USA, but I’d also keep an eye on Missouri State transfer Ronnel Johnson and tight end Luke Gilbert. Defensively, I’m convinced safety Caleb Nix is the best overall player in Conference USA. He’s been a huge difference maker through just four games with 24 tackles, three breakups and a punt returned 75 yards for a touchdown las week against Georgia Southern. With Mac Sanders injured, Walker O’Steen and Myles Butler have led the linebacker room.

What about on MT scares you? On the flip side, areas JSU can exploit?

I really like Cam’ron Lacy as a player, and I think he’ll probably be the biggest challenge for Jax State’s secondary. He’s already on pace to have one of the better statistical seasons in Conference USA for a receiver. Korey Smith should also be a player to watch in this matchup, especially as Jax State is still fighting out its running back situation.

How big of a factor will the crowd be?

Jax State’s attendance for its home opener was 19,677, and last week it was 16,142 for its game against Georgia Southern. I believe the Gamecocks have consistently been at the top of Conference USA since joining the league, and this year should be no different.

Prediction? How will the game go?

My prediction would be Jax State 34, Middle Tennessee 23. These games against the Blue Raiders always seem to have some factor of weirdness — see 2023 — but I still think Jax State is the more talented team and should win the second half.

WKU was drilled by Indiana, Kennesaw State lost decisively against Tennessee, Delaware outlasted Coastal Carolina, Liberty blasted Ball State, FIU fell at FAU, Marshall won at Missouri State, MT defeated Nevada inside Floyd, Jacksonville State edged Georgia Southern, and Sam Houston thumped Nichols.

This week Liberty goes to Coastal Carolina Thursday evening, in a game that will be aired on ESPN. Outside of that, each game will be on Saturday, September 26.

Here is the rundown:

Liberty (2-1) at Coastal Carolina (1-2)

• Thursday, September 24

• 6:30 Central Time

• ESPN

• Liberty -1.5

• O/U 52.5

• ESPN: Liberty 55.6 percent chance to win

Sam Houston State (1-2) at number 11 Texas Tech (3-0)

• Saturday, September 26

• 11 AM Central Time

• TNT

• Texas Tech -35.5

• O/U 54.5

• ESPN: Sam Houston State 3.4 percent chance to win

New Mexico (2-1) at NMSU (1-2)

• Saturday, September 26

• 2:30 PM Central Time

• CBS Sports Network

• New Mexico -13.5

• O/U 49.5

• ESPN: NMSU 14.6 percent chance to win

Delaware (2-1) at Virginia (2-1)

• Saturday, September 26

• 5 PM Central Time

• ACC Network

• UVA -20.5

• O/U 52.5

• ESPN: Delaware 13.3 percent chance to win

Long Island (0-4) at FIU (1-2)

• Saturday, September 26

• 5 PM Central Time

• ESPN Plus

• No spread on ESPN

• No O/U on ESPN

• ESPN: FIU 96.4 perecent chance to win

Kennesaw State (1-2) at Arkansas State (1-2)

• Saturday, September 26

• 6 PM Central Time

• ESPN Plus

• Arkansas State -4.5

• O/U 54.5

• ESPN: KSU 41 percent chance to win

Mercyhurst (1-3) at WKU (0-3)

• Saturday, September 26

• 6 PM Central Time

• ESPN Plus

• No spread on ESPN

• No O/U on ESPN

• ESPN: WKU 95.9 percent chance to win

MTSU (2-1) at Jacksonville State (2-2)

• Saturday, September 26

• 6 PM Central Time

• ESPN Plus

• JSU -8.5

• O/U 53.5

• ESPN: MTSU 31.5 percent chance to win

Missouri State (1-2) at number 22 SMU (2-1)

• Saturday, September 26

• 8 PM Central Time

• ACC Network

• SMU -34.5

• O/U 58.5

• ESPN: Missouri State 3.1 percent chance to win

Here are the three keys and a prediction!

More offensive balance

In last week’s article I alluded to the notion that MT QB Roman Gagliano is a guy that is a very decisive thrower of the ball who can fit the ball into tight windows, while not turning the ball over. Last Saturday Gagliano. I’ll add a caveat to this that I haven’t really put much thought into prior to last Saturday. That is that I don’t think that Gagliano needs to be approaching the 50 mark when it comes to passing attempts.

Last week against Marshall, Gagliano had 47, yes, 47 passing attempts. It is important to add that he connected on 25 of those passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns, with one interception. I honestly do not think that is a recipe for success going forward.

MTSU had only 25 rushes against the Herd, and eight of those 25 attempts were scrambles by Gagliano. So when you get down to the nuts and bolts of things, there were 17 rushes by non quarterbacks. These numbers need to be boosted, in my opinion. Antonio Martin toted the ball just nine times against Marshall. This number needs to be inflated big time against Nevada.

I think that offensive balance is essential because you do not want to flirt with becoming one dimensional. I think last week they were one dimensional. That cannot be the case against the Pack.

Case in point, in week one, WKU got throttled by the Wolfpack, and the Toppers fell victim to sticking with the air raid, becoming predictable. They threw the ball 40 times, and hit on 24 of those throws, for 203 yards. WKU QB Rodney Tisdale’s QB rating was 33.8. The Blue Raiders need to heed this lesson. They need to make Nevada defend the run as well as the pass.

Play with a sense of urgency

I think that this game is one of the most pivotal games in Coach Derek Mason’s tenure. Yes, we are just three games into the 2026 campaign, but this is a fork in the road game for the Blue Raiders.

I think that their backs are pinned up against the wall. Rhett mentioned in the MT/Nevada picks, but MTSU needs to win this contest if they want to achieve the goals they envisioned before the season got jumpstarted.

Yes, they can still achieve the goal of winning Conference USA if they drop this game, obviously since neither Marshall or Nevada are in Conference USA. My honest assessment is that if you can’t defeat this Nevada team at home, you have a slim chance of turning around and defeating a myriad of CUSA teams, on the path to winning the league.

I want to see some fire and some moxie out of the Blue Raiders. They need to set the tone, and like I said earlier, that doesn’t necessarily mean they need to be throwing the rock all over the yard. You can be aggressive, but implement the rushing attack as well. On offense I want to see the offensive line firing out of the blocks, putting hats on hats. On defense I want to see everyone flying to the football.

Last week the Blue Raiders trailed by one at the halftime intermission. It would be great to see them head into the locker room at half with a lead.

Finish, finish, finish

I have been beating this dead horse over and over and over. Middle Tennessee State really needs to learn how to win tightly contested ballgames. During Derek Mason’s three years in the ‘Boro, there have been a handful of games where they were in the game in the fourth quarter, but just failed to ultimately get the job done.

I think that this game against Nevada is one that is a matchup between two evenly matched teams. I have said it before and I’ll say it again, this game will be undecided heading into the final quarter. The question looming large is whether they can get the job done, reverse the trend, and win the game in the fourth quarter.

Against Marshall they were outscored by the Herd in the fourth quarter 14-6. This can’t be the case against Nevada if the outcome is up in the air in the fourth quarter.

Can they do this? We shall see!

Prediction

I went out on a limb in the picks article that MT gets the job done, and wins this game. I think that MT takes my advice and dials it down a couple of notches when it comes to throwing attempts. That being said, I think that Gagliano will push the ball down the field and make some impressive throws.

I think fans will be on pins and needles late in this one. In the end, MTSU makes enough plays to get the biggest win in the Derek Mason era.

MTSU 27

Nevada 24

Matt Dossett: 2-0 on the season

Despite losing to Marshall last week in a barn burner, I think there are some positive takeaways to be had. The defense performed better than I imagined, despite the fact I predicted Marshall to score 27 points, and they tallied 28 total points. They held three QB’s for Marshall to 181 total yards. They limited the rushing attack of Marshall to 129 yards on 38 carries, which amounted to 3.4 yards a carry.

I realize that fans won’t accept moral victories coming out of a loss, but I think there are reasons for optimism heading into Nevada this week. Nevada’s QB1, Carter Jones, was out for the Montana State game, a game they lost. Jones is expected to be back for the Middle game, and that is something to watch and monitor. Jones is a solid passer but is also a guy that can gash you with his legs. In his one game against WKU, Jones had six scrambles for 50 yards.

The Wolf Pack have a good running back tandem in Dominic Kelley and Herschel Turner, who have combined for 336 yards and three touchdowns.

I think this will certainly be a four quarter ballgame. Nevada is currently laying 3.5 in this one. I said before the season that MT would win some games they are not favored to win. I think MT covers and wins outright. I think QB Roman Gagliano has success through the air and the running game will click.

Give me MTSU in a close one.

MTSU 27

Nevada 24

Rhett Glenn: 2-0 on the season

Middle Tennessee has little time to dwell on last week’s loss at Marshall.

The Blue Raiders return home Saturday night to face a Nevada team that has already shown both sides of itself this season. The Wolf Pack opened with an impressive 49-14 win over Western Kentucky before falling to Montana State last week. MTSU, meanwhile, enters at 1-1 after a convincing win over Murray State and a competitive road loss at Marshall.

This feels like a game MTSU needs to win if it wants to keep its season moving in the direction it envisioned.

Nevada has enough offensive firepower to make this interesting. The Blue Raiders should benefit from playing at home and getting another strong performance from Roman Gagliano. MTSU’s defense will have to avoid giving up the explosive plays that helped Nevada cruise past Western Kentucky.

I’m expecting a close game throughout, but Nevada makes enough plays late to pull it out.

Nevada 31

MTSU 27