A lot happened right before I began writing this article (Thursday, October 29th). First CNN release an absolutely disastrous set of polls for Senate Republicans:

Texas: Talarico (D) +6

Maine: Jackson (D) +4

Kansas: Hamilton (D) +4

Michigan: El-Sayed (D) +7

Then on Sunday, November 1st, Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost to Abdul El-Sayed in the Democratic Primary, crossed party lines to endorse Republican Mike Rogers. That was something that even I did not expect.

But, given the predicted national environment of anywhere on average from 6-10 points, there are a lot of Senate races that are up in the air that will determine control of the U.S senate come. Let’s start by going over some individual races. I will first go over some of the less controversial races before going into the true tossups.

North Carolina

The 2026 North Carolina is between former governor Roy Cooper and former chair of the RNC Michael Whatley. Cooper was able to win on both 2016 and 2020 on the same ballot where President Trump won both times. National Republicans have largely pulled all resources out of this race to focus on other states as polling shows Cooper with a large lead. This race won’t be competitive, and this will be the Democratic Party’s easiest pickup of the night.

Prediction: Cooper +10 (Democratic Gain)

Georgia

I have long said that Jon Ossof is one of the strongest Democratic Senators in the country. He is a young, enthusiastic candidate who also appeals to both progressives and moderates alike. Once Gov. Brian Kemp announced he was not running for the Senate seat, I knew Ossof was headed for a second term.

Prediction: Ossof +11 (Democratic Hold)

South Carolina

One of the worst moments I have ever seen was Darlene Graham’s response to a question about Taiwan and Foreign Policy in the South China Sea: "I’m just going to be honest here; I’m not that informed on national security, so — but I do support the military. My brother was in the Air Force for 33 years...I'm not a polished politician up here. National security is not my thing, not my area of expertise, but I do support the military.". In a non-polarized society, she would not come close to holding office, but in the era of Trump, such things are not a surprise. However, I don’t buy all of this hype from Democrats about potentially flipping this seat. They thought the same thing in 2020. Democrat Jaime Harrison was winning polls and set fundraising records, but Lindsey Graham won by double digits in the end. The one thing that has me thinking this race could be close is the early voting data in North Carolina and Virginia. I am not one to usually base predictions on early voting data because its not reliable and both parties can spin data points to make it seem good on their part. Republicans have absolutely hemorrhaged in early voting in these states which points to a localized blue tsunami in the region. If that spreads to South Carolina, this race could be close, but I do not think it will be enough.

Prediction: Graham +4 (Republican Hold)

Nebraska

Dan Osborn came within 7 points of beating Republican Senator Deb Fischer in 2024 as an independent. His decision to run again in 2026 led to speculation that this race could be close. However. Pete Ricketts is much more prepared for a potential fight than Fischer was, and while the environment will make this closer than it should be, Ricketts should still prevail.

Prediction: Ricketts +8 (Republican Hold)

Minnesota

Minnesota is an outlier. If there is one state where Republicans overperform, its here due to Tim Walz becoming incredibly unpopular after his handling of fraud allegations throughout the state. Secondly, for once, the Minnesota Republican Party fought back against the MyPillow coalition and elected solid candidates. Michele Tafoya is relatively strong, but in this environment, its probably impossible for a Republican statewide win.

Prediction: Flanagan +13 (Democratic Hold)

New Hampshire

If any Republican can win in New Hampshire, it’s one with the last name Sununu. While the ultimately popular Chris Sununu isn’t running, his brother and former Senator John Sununu, is trying for another bite at the apple. Chris Pappas is a strong candidate and this environment makes it incredibly difficult, especially in New England, to win as a Republican in the age of Trump.

Prediction: Pappas +10 (Democratic Hold)

Here come the true tossups:

Iowa

I have a buddy from Iowa who told me that its going to be a great place for Dems due to concerns over cancer. Huh? Sure enough, cancer rates in Iowa have become national news lately. Generally, this probably won’t favor one party over the other, but discontent over miscellaneous matters often screw the party in power whether they deserve it or not. I have no doubt that Iowa is going to elect a Democratic governor, but the Senate race will be much closer. Ashley Hinson is a great candidate and has distanced herself from Trump due to the war and tariffs. Additionally, Republicans have become more confident in Iowa even as other races get bleaker. Josh Turek is a solid candidate as well, but Iowa is the one tossup state Republicans can feel okay about on Tuesday.

Prediction: Hinson +4 (Republican Hold)

Ohio

Sherrod Brown will probably run for Senate 3 times in 4 years. This seat is up again in 2 years since JD Vance is now Vice President. Jon Husted, who was appointed by Dewine will give him a fight. However, Vivek has done everything in his power to lose Ohio for the Republicans. Amy Action will be Governor, and Ohio is ripe for a blue wave just like in 2006. Republicans could hold this, but I just don’t see it.

Prediction: Brown +3 (Democratic Gain)

Alaska

Mary Peltola was a great candidate. Dan Sullivan, the real one, is a great Senator. Notice how I said was for Peltola. She’s faced a bunch of scandals lately with calls on both side to investigate her and even invalidate the results should she win. In all honesty, I doubt the second Dan Sullivan being will have any impact on the vote due to ranked choice voting in Alaska. If in doubt, vote for both Dan Sullivans. However, the scandal itself made shockwaves through the media, and Peltola’s happy go lucky personality is likely tarnished. This election will be close, but Sullivan has the momentum, and I think he pulls it out. Hopefully, we know by Christmas.

Prediction: Sullivan +1 (Republican Hold)

Maine

Another ranked choice voting state that may have us eating Thanksgiving dinner before knowing the results. Susan Collins single handedly crushed the souls of Democrats everywhere in 2020. Polls had her down by 5+ points, but she beat Speaker of the Maine House Sara Gideon by almost 10 points without even triggering ranked choice voting. I don’t expect that big of a polling miss, but alot of stuff has happened in Maine from Graham Platner to Troy Jackson being a horrible candidate. This entire race is essentially Collins vs. the national environment. Realistically, I want to say Collins will win. She should win. But, its Maine, and it will be a very blue year. I think she probably goes down.

Prediction: Jackson +0.5 (Democratic Gain)

Kansas

Speaking of people I thought were good candidates but ended up being horrible… Roger Marshall. My man, what are you doing releasing an ad playing pure defense about an attack that you sent former patents to collections? Regardless if you agree or not, you should never release that as your closing ad on why you should be a United States Senator? Adam Hamilton has closed strong and put Marshall on pure defense. Kansas is probably going blue by the slightest margin.

Prediction: Hamilton +0.5 (Democratic Gain)

Texas

When Cornyn lost the Republican primary, I knew Texas was in severe danger. Ken Paxton is probably the worst Senate candidate this cycle for Republicans. James Talarico defeated the much weaker Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary, making Texas a prime flip for Democrats. I don’t usually use early vote data to make predictions, but Texas turnout is through the roof. This data seems to be strongest in heavy Hispanic areas, and data shows Talarico make strong in roads with Hispanics. I truly thing Talarico is within arms reach of becoming the next United States Senator from Texas

Prediction: Talarico +1 (Democratic Gain)

Michigan

Michigan will be the only potential pickup opportunity of the night for Republicans. Mike Rogers is giving it another shot after falling just short to Senator Slotkin in 2024. Democrats nominated the controversial Abdul El-Sayed after he beat Rep. Haley Stevens in a competitive primary. Despite Stevens crossing over to endorse Mike Rogers, I do not believe it will have much impact on the race. While El-Sayed is very progressive, he seems to largely be bringing in the Democrats who were skeptical early on. I don’t see a great pickup opportunity for Republicans this late in the game.

Prediction: El-Sayed +4 (Democratic Hold)

Final Prediction: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

Not in session

U.S Senate

Cabinet Nominations

PN11-1: Confirmation of Scott Bessent, of S.C., to be Secretary of the Treasury

Vote: Republicans: 52 Yeas

Democrats: 15 Yeas, 28 Nays

Independents: 1 Yea, 1 Nay

Total: 68 Yeas, 29 Nays

PN11-6: Confirmation of Sean Duffy, of WI, to be Secretary of Transportation

Vote: Republicans: 53 Yeas

Democrats: 23 Yeas, 21 Nays

Independents: 1 Yea, 1 Nay

Total: 77 Yeas, 22 Nays

PN11-23: Confirmation of Lee Zeldin, of N.Y., to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency

Vote: Republicans: 53 Yeas

Democrats: 3 Yeas, 40 Nays

Independents: 2 Nays

Total: 56 Yeas, 42 Nays

PN11-3: Confirmation of Douglas Burgum, of N.D., to be Secretary of the Interior

Vote: Republicans: 53 Yeas

Democrats: 25 Yeas, 17 Nays

Independents: 1 Yea, 1 Nay

Total: 79 Yeas, 18 Nays

Important Procedural Votes

Cloture on the motion to proceed to the measure H.R.23- Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act

Summary: This bill imposes sanctions against foreign persons (individuals and entities) who assist the International Criminal Court (ICC) in investigating, arresting, detaining, or prosecuting certain individuals.

The bill categorizes as protected persons (1) any U.S. individual, U.S. entity, or person in the United States, unless the United States is a state party to the Rome Statute of the ICC and provides formal consent to ICC jurisdiction; and (2) any foreign person that is a citizen or lawful resident of a U.S. ally that is not a state party to the Rome Statute or has not consented to ICC jurisdiction.

If the ICC attempts to investigate, arrest, detain or prosecute a protected person, the President must impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions against the foreign persons that engaged in or materially assisted in such actions, as well as against foreign persons owned by, controlled by, or acting on behalf of such foreign persons. The President must also apply visa-blocking sanctions to the immediate family members of those sanctioned.

Upon enactment, the bill rescinds all funds appropriated for the ICC and prohibits the subsequent use of appropriated funds for the ICC.

Arguments: Supporters of this bill, almost all of the Republicans and some Democrats, argue that the ICC should be sanctioned for going after Israel. They believe that Israel has a right to defend itself and those going after Netanyahu are forming a kangaroo court.

Opponents of the bill, most Democrats, argue that while self-defense is allowed, Netanyahu is going overboard. What’s happening in Gaza isn’t self-defense, it’s vengeance. The ICC was created to investigate war crimes, and the process should play out.

Vote: Republicans: 53 Yeas

Democrats: 1 Yeas, 43 Nays

Independents: 2 Nays

Total: 54 Yeas, 45 Nays (cloture failed- 60 votes needed)

*Rule and procedural votes are not included unless it significantly alters legislative process

**Also does not include legislation that renames federal facilities or designation resolutions (such as renaming post offices or commemorating a historical event, among other similar things)

***Debate and arguments are included for all bills under regular order and any bill under suspension of the rules that had organized opposition that spoke against it on the floor during debate

Bills Passed via Unanimous Consent Under Suspension of the Rules

H.R.207 - SHARKED Act of 2025

Summary: This bill directs the Secretary of Commerce to establish a task force regarding shark depredation

H.R.204 - ACRES Act

Summary: This bill requires that the Secretary of Agriculture and the Secretary of the Interior submit accurate reports regarding hazardous fuels reduction activities, and for other purposes.

H.R.197 - Lake Winnibigoshish Land Exchange Act of 2025

Summary: This bill provides for a land exchange in the Chippewa National Forest, Minnesota

H.R.187 - MAPWaters Act of 2025

Summary: This bill provides for the standardization, consolidation, and publication of data relating to public outdoor recreational use of Federal waterways among Federal land and water management agencies

Note: Technically, there was a vote on this, but every member voted yes.

H.R 186 - Hershel Woody Williams National Medal of Honor Monument Location Act

Summary: This bill authorizes the National Medal of Honor Museum Foundation to establish a commemorative work on the National Mall to honor the extraordinary acts of valor, selfless service, and sacrifice displayed by Medal of Honor recipients.

Note: Technically, there was a vote on this, but every member voted yes.

H.R.165 - Wounded Knee Massacre Memorial and Sacred Site Act

Summary: This bill directs the Secretary of the Interior to complete all actions necessary for certain land to be held in restricted fee status by the Oglala Sioux Tribe and Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe

Note: Technically, there was a vote on this, but every member voted yes.

Bills Passed Via Roll Call Vote under Suspension of the Rules (2/3 Needed)

H.R.375 - Continued Rapid Ohia Death Response Act of 2025

Summary: This bill requires the Secretary of the Interior to partner and collaborate with the Secretary of Agriculture and the State of Hawaii to address Rapid Ohia Death

Bills Passed Via Regular Order (Majority Needed)

S.5 - Laken Riley Act

Summary: This bill requires the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to detain certain non-U.S. nationals (aliens under federal law) who have been arrested for burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting. The bill also authorizes states to sue the federal government for decisions or alleged failures related to immigration enforcement.

Under this bill, DHS must detain an individual who (1) is unlawfully present in the United States or did not possess the necessary documents when applying for admission; and (2) has been charged with, arrested for, convicted of, or admits to having committed acts that constitute the essential elements of burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting.

The bill also authorizes state governments to sue for injunctive relief over certain immigration-related decisions or alleged failures by the federal government if the decision or failure caused the state or its residents harm, including financial harm of more than $100. Specifically, the state government may sue the federal government over a

• decision to release a non-U.S. national from custody;

• failure to fulfill requirements relating to inspecting individuals seeking admission into the United States, including requirements related to asylum interviews;

• failure to fulfill a requirement to stop issuing visas to nationals of a country that unreasonably denies or delays acceptance of nationals of that country;

• violation of limitations on immigration parole, such as the requirement that parole be granted only on a case-by-case basis; or

• failure to detain an individual who has been ordered removed from the United States.

Arguments: Supporters of the bill, all of the Republicans and a decent amount of Democrats, believe this bill is necessary to prevent dangerous illegal immigrants from harming Americans citizens. They believe any illegal immigrant who is accused of a crime should automatically be detained by ICE.

Opponents of the bill, most of the Democratic Caucus, argue this bill upends precedent because they are detained without due process and a conviction. Dreamers aren’t protected under this law, and people living here for years could be deported without a trial.

Vote: Republicans: 217 Yeas

Democrats: 46 Yeas, 156 Nays

Total: 263 Yeas, 156 Nays

H.R.471 - Fix Our Forests Act

Summary: the bill (1) designates certain firesheds at high risk for wildfires as fireshed management areas; (2) directs the U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Geological Survey to jointly establish an interagency Fireshed Center that is responsible for duties related to assessing and predicting fire, including maintaining a fireshed registry on a publicly accessible website that provides interactive geospatial data on individual firesheds; and (3) makes other requirements related to reducing wildfire.

Next, the bill expedites the review of certain forest management projects under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969 and exempts certain activities from NEPA review. It also establishes intra-agency strike teams to accelerate the review and any interagency consultation processes under NEPA, the Endangered Species Act of 1973, and the National Historic Preservation Act. It also limits consultation requirements concerning threatened and endangered species under the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 and the Federal Land Management and Policy Act of 1976. Finally, it limits litigation involving fireshed management projects and limits remedies that courts may provide.

Additionally, the bill supports reducing community wildfire risks, carrying out forest restoration and stewardship activities (including watershed protection and restoration), conducting biochar demonstration projects, advancing technologies to address forest wildfires, and assisting wildland firefighters and their families.

Arguments: Supporters of this bill, a large bipartisan coalition, believe that forest management reform is heavily needed. They point to the California wildfires as proof. This bill would prioritize prevention in areas that are most high risk.

Opponents of the bill, the rest of the Democratic Caucus, believe that the bill doesn’t adequately fund the new programs enacted. Additionally, the Act inappropriately co-opts emergency authorities under the National Environmental Policy Act, undercuts the Endangered Species Act, and even makes it more difficult for communities to engage and scrutinize or even know about projects that could directly impact them.

Amendment #1: strikes the prioritization of carbon sequestration and ecosystem services in the biochar demonstration projects in this bill.

Passed by voice vote

Amendment #2: allows the U.S. Forest Service to approve the removal of hazardous trees or vegetation near power poles or power lines on Federal land without the need for a timber sale.

Passed by voice vote

Final Vote: Republicans: 215 Yeas

Democrats: 64 Yeas, 141 Nays

Total: 279 Yeas, 141 Nays

H.R.21 - Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act

Summary: This bill prohibits a health care practitioner from failing to exercise the proper degree of care in the case of a child who survives an abortion or attempted abortion.

Arguments: Supporters of this bill, almost all Republicans, believe that the abortion industry has unchecked power. There are many stories of abortion survivors being left to die, and this bill prevents that.

Opponents of this bill, mostly all of the Democrats, argue that there are circumstances where parents know that their baby will die, but they choose to give birth to it anyway even though it will not survive. This bill would require doctors to remove the baby from the parents arms, and administer potentially unnecessary treatment instead of allowing the baby to spend its few moments with the parents. Additionally, infanticide is already illegal and many of the stories Republicans mentioned led to prosecution.

Vote: Republicans: 216 Yeas

Democrats: 1 Yea, 204 Nays, 1 Present

Total: 217 Yeas, 204 Nays, 1 Present

U.S Senate

Cabinet Nominations

PN11-13: Confirmation of Marco Rubio, of Florida, to be Secretary of State

Approved Unanimously

PN11-19: Confirmation of John Ratcliffe, of Texas, to be Director of the Central Intelligence Agency

Vote: Republicans: 53 Yeas

Democrats: 20 Yeas, 24 Nays

Independents: 1 Yea, 1 Nay

Total: 74 Yeas, 25 Nays

PN11-7: Confirmation of Peter Hegseth, of Tennessee, to be Secretary of Defense

Vote: Republicans: 50 Yeas, 3 Nays

Democrats: 45 Nays

Independents: 2 Nays

Vice President Vance broke the tie and voted Yea

Total: 51 Yeas, 50 Nays

PN11-11: Confirmation of Kristi Noem, of South Dakota, to be Secretary of Homeland Security

Vote: Republicans: 52 Yeas

Democrats: 7 Yeas, 33 Nays

Independents: 1 Nay

Bills Considered Under Regular Order (60 Votes needed to break cloture)

S.5 - Laken Riley Act

Summary: This bill requires the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to detain certain non-U.S. nationals (aliens under federal law) who have been arrested for burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting. The bill also authorizes states to sue the federal government for decisions or alleged failures related to immigration enforcement.

Under this bill, DHS must detain an individual who (1) is unlawfully present in the United States or did not possess the necessary documents when applying for admission; and (2) has been charged with, arrested for, convicted of, or admits to having committed acts that constitute the essential elements of burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting.

The bill also authorizes state governments to sue for injunctive relief over certain immigration-related decisions or alleged failures by the federal government if the decision or failure caused the state or its residents harm, including financial harm of more than $100. Specifically, the state government may sue the federal government over a

• decision to release a non-U.S. national from custody;

• failure to fulfill requirements relating to inspecting individuals seeking admission into the United States, including requirements related to asylum interviews;

• failure to fulfill a requirement to stop issuing visas to nationals of a country that unreasonably denies or delays acceptance of nationals of that country;

• violation of limitations on immigration parole, such as the requirement that parole be granted only on a case-by-case basis; or

• failure to detain an individual who has been ordered removed from the United States.

Arguments: Supporters of the bill, all of the Republicans and a decent amount of Democrats, believe this bill is necessary to prevent dangerous illegal immigrants from harming Americans citizens. They believe any illegal immigrant who is accused of a crime should automatically be detained by ICE.

Opponents of the bill, most of the Democratic Caucus, argue this bill upends precedent because they are detained without due process and a conviction. Dreamers aren’t protected under this law, and people living here for years could be deported without a trial.

Amendments:

S.amdt.14: Amends S.amdt 8 to expand the list of criminal offenses that subject inadmissible aliens to mandatory detention.

Vote: Republicans: 50 Yeas

Democrats: 20 Yeas, 23 Nays

Independents: 2 Nays

Total: 70 Yeas, 25 Nays

S.amdt.23: To strike the section that authorizes State attorneys general to sue Federal immigration authorities for alleged violations relating to the detention of aliens.

Vote: Republicans: 49 Nays

Democrats: 44 Yeas

Independents: 2 Yeas

Total: 46 Yeas, 49 Nays (vote failed)

S.amdt.8: To include crimes resulting in death or serious bodily injury to the list of offenses that, if committed by an inadmissible alien, require mandatory detention.

Vote: Republicans: 52 Yeas

Democrats: 17 Yeas, 24 Nays

Independents: 1 Yea, 1 Nay

Total: 70 Yeas, 25 Nays

Final Vote: Republicans: 52 Yeas

Democrats: 12 Yeas, 33 Nays

Independents: 2 Nays

Total: 64 Yeas, 35 Nays

Motion to invoke cloture to proceed to consideration of S.6 - Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act

Vote: Republicans: 52 Yeas

Democrats: 45 Nays

Independents: 2 Nays

Total: 52 Yeas, 47 Nays (voted failed- needed 60 yeas)

*Rule and procedural votes are not included unless it significantly alters legislative process

**Also does not include legislation that renames federal facilities or designation resolutions (such as renaming post offices or commemorating a historical event, among other similar things)

***Debate and arguments are included for all bills under regular order and any bill under suspension of the rules that had organized opposition that spoke against it on the floor during debate

Bills Passed via Roll Call Vote Under Suspension of the Rules (2/3 Needed)

H.R.192 - Amtrak Executive Bonus Disclosure Act

Summary: This bill requires Amtrak to publicly disclose the annual base pay and bonus compensation paid to an Amtrak executive in a required annual report to Congress.

Specifically, Amtrak must incorporate into the annual report the annual base pay and any bonus compensation paid to a member of the executive leadership team. This must include the criteria and metrics used to determine any bonus compensation.

Further, Amtrak must make the annual report available on Amtrak's public website.

Vote: Republicans: 206 Yeas

Democrats: 201 Yeas

Total: 407 Yeas

H.R.152 - Federal Disaster Assistance Coordination Act

Summary: This bill authorizes a study regarding streamlining and consolidating information collection and preliminary damage assessments

Vote: Republicans: 200 Yeas, 5 Nays

Democrats: 205 Yeas

Total: 405 Yeas, 5 Nays

H.R.153 - Post-Disaster Assistance Online Accountability Act

Summary: This bill provides for an online repository for certain reporting requirements for recipients of Federal disaster assistance

Vote: Republicans: 217 Yeas

Democrats: 209 Yeas

Total: 426 Yeas

H.R.164 - POWER Act of 2025

Summary: This bill authorizes certain federal agencies to provide certain essential assistance for hazard mitigation for electric utilities

Vote: Republicans: 209 Yeas, 2 Nays

Democrats: 210 Yeas

Total: 419 Yeas, 2 Nays

H.R.144 - Tennessee Valley Authority Salary Transparency Act

Summary: This bill expands reporting requirements for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). TVA is a government corporation that provides electricity in Tennessee and in portions of several surrounding states. It also provides flood control, navigation, and land management services for the Tennessee River system.

The bill reinstates the requirement for TVA to file an annual financial statement and report with Congress in March. (The requirement was terminated by the Federal Reports Elimination and Sunset Act of 1995.)

The bill also modifies the requirement that the report include the names, salaries, and duties of employees earning more than $1,500 a year. Under the bill, this information is only required for employees earning more than the maximum rate of basic pay for grade GS-13 of the General Schedule.

Vote: Republicans: 214 Yeas

Democrats: 209 Nays

Total: 423 Yeas

Bills Passed Via Regular Order (Majority Needed)

H.R.28 - Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025

Summary: The bill provides that it is a violation of Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 for federally funded education programs or activities to operate, sponsor, or facilitate athletic programs or activities that allow individuals of the male sex to participate in programs or activities that are designated for women or girls. (Title IX prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex in federally funded education programs or activities, including in public elementary and secondary schools and in colleges and universities.) Under the bill, sex is based on an individual's reproductive biology and genetics at birth.

The bill does not prohibit male individuals from training or practicing with programs or activities for women or girls as long as such training or practice does not deprive any female of corresponding opportunities or benefits.

The Government Accountability Office must report on the benefits for women or girls in single-sex sports that would be lost as a result of male participation. In particular, the report must document the negative psychological, developmental, participatory, and sociological effects of male participation on girls.

Arguments: Supporters of the bill, all of the Republicans with very few Democrats, argue that this bill protects the promise of title IX by protecting the integrity of women’s sports. Allowing transgender women is unfair to biological women as they have superior physical attributes.

Opponents of the bill, almost all of the Democratic Caucus, argue that local sports organizations should be in charge of their regulations. Certain states allow transgenders to compete, and there are no problems in those states. This policy is damaging and discriminatory to transgender athletes. It also violates their safety and medical privacy.

Vote: Republicans: 216 Yeas

Democrats: 2 Yeas, 206 Nays, 1 Present

Total: 218 Yeas, 206 Nays

H.R.33 - To amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide special rules for the taxation of certain residents of Taiwan with income from sources within the United States.

Summary: This bill establishes special rules for the taxation of residents of Taiwan with income from sources within the United States. This includes the reduction of the rate of withholding of taxes, the application of permanent establishment rules, treatment of income from employment, and the determination of the residency of citizens of Taiwan.

Vote: Republicans: 213 Yeas, 1 Nay

Democrats: 210 Yeas

Total: 423 Yeas, 1 Nay

H.R.30 - Preventing Violence Against Women by Illegal Aliens Act

Summary: This bill establishes certain criminal grounds for making non-U.S. nationals (aliens under federal law) inadmissible and expands the crimes for which a non-U.S. national is deportable.

First, the bill establishes that a non-U.S. national is inadmissible if the individual has admitted to or is convicted of acts constituting the essential elements of stalking, child abuse, child neglect, child abandonment, a sex offense, conspiracy to commit a sex offense, a violation of certain protection orders, or domestic violence (including physical or sexual abuse or a pattern of coercive behavior when it occurs within certain close relationships).

Next, the bill establishes additional grounds for deportation. Under current law, a non-U.S. national is deportable for certain criminal convictions, including domestic violence, stalking, and child abuse. The bill makes any sex offense (including crimes against minors) or conspiracy to commit a sex offense a basis for deportation. The bill also expands the domestic violence crimes that make a non-U.S. national deportable to include physical or sexual abuse or a pattern of coercive behavior when it occurs within certain close relationships.

Arguments: Supporters of the bill, all of the Republicans and about 1/3 of the Democrats, argue that this bill is needed to address the flow of criminals across the southern border. This bill would make it easier to deport illegal immigrants if they commit certain crimes.

Opponents of this bill, 2/3 of Democrats, argue this bill is redundant and the law already leads to the deportation or rejection of foreigners who committed sex crimes. They also argue that victims of domestic violence who defend themselves could be rejected or deported under this law.

Vote: Republicans: 213 Yeas

Democrats: 61 Yeas, 145 Nays

Total: 274 Yeas, 145 Nays

U.S Senate

To nobody’s surprise, the Senate passed no bills this week. However, there will be a final vote the following week on its version of the Laken Riley Act, and the Senate held many confirmation hearings on Trump’s nominees.

*Rule and procedural votes are not included unless it significantly alters legislative process

**Also does not include legislation that renames federal facilities or designation resolutions (such as renaming post offices or commemorating a historical event, among other similar things)

***Debate and arguments are included for all bills under regular order and any bill under suspension of the rules that had organized opposition that spoke against it on the floor during debate

H.R.29 - Laken Riley Act

Summary: This bill requires the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to detain certain non-U.S. nationals (aliens under federal law) who have been arrested for burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting. The bill also authorizes states to sue the federal government for decisions or alleged failures related to immigration enforcement.

Under this bill, must detain an individual who (1) is unlawfully present in the United States or did not possess the necessary documents when applying for admission; and (2) has been charged with, arrested for, convicted of, or admits to having committed acts that constitute the essential elements of burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting.

The bill also authorizes state governments to sue for injunctive relief over certain immigration-related decisions or alleged failures by the federal government if the decision or failure caused the state or its residents harm, including financial harm of more than $100. Specifically, the state government may sue the federal government over a

• decision to release a non-U.S. national from custody;

• failure to fulfill requirements relating to inspecting individuals seeking admission into the United States, including requirements related to asylum interviews;

• failure to fulfill a requirement to stop issuing visas to nationals of a country that unreasonably denies or delays acceptance of nationals of that country;

• violation of limitations on immigration parole, such as the requirement that parole be granted only on a case-by-case basis; or

• failure to detain an individual who has been ordered removed from the United States.

Arguments: Supporters of the bill, all of the Republicans and a decent amount of Democrats, believe this bill is necessary to prevent dangerous illegal immigrants from harming Americans citizens. They believe any illegal immigrant who is accused of a crime should automatically be detained by ICE.

Opponents of the bill, most of the Democratic Caucus, argue this bill upends precedent because they are detained without due process and a conviction. Dreamers aren’t protected under this law, and people living here for years could be deported without a trial.

Vote: Republicans: 216 Yeas,

Democrats: 48 Yeas, 159 Nays

Total: 264 Yeas, 159 Nays

H.R.23 - Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act

Summary: This bill imposes sanctions against foreign persons (individuals and entities) who assist the International Criminal Court (ICC) in investigating, arresting, detaining, or prosecuting certain individuals.

The bill categorizes as protected persons (1) any U.S. individual, U.S. entity, or person in the United States, unless the United States is a state party to the Rome Statute of the ICC and provides formal consent to ICC jurisdiction; and (2) any foreign person that is a citizen or lawful resident of a U.S. ally that is not a state party to the Rome Statute or has not consented to ICC jurisdiction.

If the ICC attempts to investigate, arrest, detain or prosecute a protected person, the President must impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions against the foreign persons that engaged in or materially assisted in such actions, as well as against foreign persons owned by, controlled by, or acting on behalf of such foreign persons. The President must also apply visa-blocking sanctions to the immediate family members of those sanctioned.

Upon enactment, the bill rescinds all funds appropriated for the ICC and prohibits the subsequent use of appropriated funds for the ICC.

Arguments: Supporters of this bill, almost all of the Republicans and some Democrats, argue that the ICC should be sanctioned for going after Israel. They believe that Israel has a right to defend itself and those going after Netanyahu are forming a kangaroo court.

Opponents of the bill, most Democrats, argue that while self-defense is allowed, Netanyahu is going overboard. What’s happening in Gaza isn’t self-defense, it’s vengeance. The ICC was created to investigate war crimes, and the process should play out.

Vote: Republicans: 198 Yeas,

Democrats: 45 Yeas, 140 Nays

Total: 243 Yeas, 140 Nays

U.S Senate

The U.S Senate did not pass any bills. However, the Senate proceeding to reach the 60 vote threshold to proceed with consideration of the Laken Riley Act next week.

U.S House

Election of the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives

Vote: Republicans: 218 Johnson, 1 Emmer

Democrats: 215 Jeffries

Total: 218 Johnson, 215 Jeffries, 1 Emmer

H.Res.5 - Adopting the Rules of the House of Representatives for the One Hundred Nineteenth Congress, and for other purposes.

Summary: This resolution establishes the rules for the U.S House of Representatives for the 119th Congress. There are a few changes from last Congress.

• It takes nine Republicans to bring a motion to vacate the speaker. Last Congress, it was only one

• Bills under suspension of the rules can only be brought on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays.

Vote: Republicans: 213 Yeas

Democrats: 1 Yea, 209 Nays

Total: 214 Yeas, 209 Nays

This bill is over 1500 pages long, and while it is a CR (Continuing Resolution to temporarily fund the government), there is a lot more in the bill. Lets dig into it.

H.R 10445- Further Continuing Appropriations and Disaster Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2025

The bill text can be found here.

The bill is split into 3 primary parts:

1. FURTHER CONTINUING APPROPRIATIONS ACT, 20251

   1. This eight page act (only eight pages! The bill could have ended there!) is the primary reason that there is a rush to pass this bill. The government shuts down on Friday, and this provision continues current funding levels until March 14th, 2025

   2. There are some very “minor” spending allocations such as:

      1. $50 million for security and planning of President-Elect Trump’s inauguration

      2. $14 billion dollars for naval submarine projects

      3. Members of Congress receive a Cost of Living adjustment for the first time since 2009. Their salaries would go from approx. $174,000 to approx. $180,000.2

      4. A few other small things

2. DISASTER RELIEF SUPPLEMENTAL APPROPRIATIONS ACT, 20253

   1. $110 Billion topline number

      1. $100 billion for disaster relief

      2. $10 billion of the $30 Billion given to DoA will be direct payments to farmers. That’s $20 billion for disaster relief (apart of the sum above) and an extra $10 billion for economic assistance.

3. Other matters and other divisions (1400 Pages of “Other Matters”). I can’t cover all of it. But here are the highlights:

   1. Extending the old farm bill another year4

   2. Members of Congress no longer have to use Obamacare exchanges and can choose to enroll in Federal Employees Health Benefits Program.5

   3. SECOND CHANCE REAUTHORIZATION ACT OF 20246

   4. Almost 500 pages of changes to healthcare. Again, its massive but here are some important highlights:

      1. Medicaid7

         1. Streamlined enrollment process for eligible out-of-state providers under Medicaid and CHIP.

         2. Making certain adjustments to coverage of home or community-based services under Medicaid.

         3. Removing certain age restrictions on Medicaid eligibility for working adults with disabilities.

         4. Extension of many different programs

      2. Medicare8

         1. Coverage of Multi-Cancer Early Detection Screening Tests

         2. PBM accountability with Medicare coverage

         3. Extending many different programs

      3. Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) reform9

         1. Oversight of pharmacy benefit management services.

         2. Full rebate pass through to plan; exception for innocent plan fiduciaries.

         3. Increasing transparency in generic drug applications.

   5. OLDER AMERICANS ACT REAUTHORIZATION ACT OF 202410

   6. $8 billion to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge11

   7. Transferring administrative jurisdiction of RFK memorial stadium to the District of Columbia12

Overall, this bill is massive, and it realistically could have been much smaller. There are tons of smaller things throughout the bill. My goal was to give as in depth of a summary as I could, but also release it in time before Congress takes action on the bill. Hopefully this helps!

So what’s the holdup?

Well, the Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government needs to pass the House (perhaps needs 2/3 if passed under suspension) AND it needs 60 votes in the Senate. In other words, it needs to be bipartisan in order to get to Joe Biden’s desk.

As with all negotiations in Washington, there are always efforts to add things on to the spending bill as a way to win over votes.

Here’s what’s being negotiated:

• Earlier in this Congress, the House Agricultural Committee sent the new farm bill to the floor. It has not received a vote over disagreements over the new SNAP formula which Democrats say would cut vital nutrition to hungry Americans. 1

  • As a result, Republicans are pushing for a one year extension of the old farm bill. The details of how to pay for direct economic assistance are being finalized.

• In return for a farm bill extension, Democrats are asking for things as well:2

  • 2 billion dollars for the Francis Scott Key Bridge

  • A trade deal for Haiti

  • Trade deals for other sub-Saharan African Countries

  • Money for Museums honoring women and Hispanics

  • They want to ride the Second Chance Act onto the CR

• There are also numerous health care provisions being negotiated

This entire process has angered Republicans, many of which are against CRs in general. Rep. Burlison has said this process is a “dumpster fire”, and he may not support Speaker Johnson in January.

Even moderate Republicans, such as Rep. Mike Lawler, are upset with the process. Lawler believes members haven’t been able to give their input on the bill, and its becoming a “Christmas tree of stuff.”

Republicans will start with a 219-215 majority come January 3rd. This means Johnson can only lose 4 votes if he wants to remain speaker in the next Congress.

*Rule and procedural votes are not included unless it significantly alters legislative process

**Also does not include legislation that renames federal facilities or designation resolutions (such as renaming post offices or commemorating a historical event, among other similar things)

***Debate and arguments are included for all bills under regular order and any bill under suspension of the rules that had organized opposition that spoke against it on the floor during debate

Bills Passed Unanimously Under Suspension of the Rules

S.3475 - Strengthening the Commercial Driver’s License Information System Act

Summary: This bill provides statutory authority for the Department of Transportation (DOT) to (1) designate an authorized operator for the Commercial Driver's License Information System (CDLIS), and (2) allow the operator to collect and use fees for the CDLIS.

Under current law, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) must maintain an information system (i.e., the CDLIS) that serves as the clearinghouse and depository of information about the licensing, identification, and disqualification of operators of commercial vehicles. The American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA) created the CDLIS and operates the system under an agreement with the FMCSA. Prior to October 1, 2023, AAMVA charged a user fee to states for the CDLIS. However, FMCSA directed AAMVA to suspend charging user fees to states for operation and maintenance of the system.

This bill modifies the fee system requirements to specify that DOT may authorize a qualified operator to (1) operate, maintain, develop, modernize, and enhance the CDLIS; (2) collect fees for the system on behalf of DOT; and (3) use the collected fees. In addition, fees collected must be credited to an appropriation account or an account designated by the authorized operator.

The bill also specifies that fees must be used to operate, maintain, develop, modernize, or enhance the CDLIS, including for related personnel and administration costs.

Further, under the bill, DOT may not be charged a fee for access to, use of, or data in the CDLIS. DOT must also have access to quarterly fee statements.

S.310 - Disaster Contract Improvement Act

Summary: This bill directs the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to establish an advisory working group to encourage and foster collaborative efforts among individuals and entities engaged in disaster recovery relating to debris removal.

The bill requires (1) FEMA to conduct outreach to states, tribal governments, and local governments with respect to any guidance or support materials developed; and (2) the Government Accountability Office to conduct a study that, among other things, examines the use and adoption rate of advance contracts for debris removal by states, tribal governments, and local governments.

S.50 - Pensacola and Perdido Bays Estuary of National Significance Act of 2024

Summary: This bill revises the National Estuary Program to require the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to give priority consideration to selecting the Pensacola and Perdido Bays in Florida as estuaries of national significance. Under the existing program, the EPA protects and restores the water quality and ecological integrity of estuaries of national significance.

The EPA may not use any amounts appropriated to carry out the national estuary program for the Pensacola and Perdido Bays (1) in FY2024, nor (2) in FY2025 unless the total amount appropriated to carry out the program for FY2025 is at least $850,000 more than the total amount appropriated to carry out that program for FY2023.

H.R.9541 - POWER Act of 2024

Summary: This bill authorizes electrical utilities receiving certain financial assistance under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act for the restoration of power to also carry out cost-effective hazard mitigation activities.

Additionally, the bill specifies that electrical utilities receiving such assistance may, if otherwise eligible, also receive hazard mitigation assistance under a separate provision of the Stafford Act related to repair, restoration, and replacement of damaged facilities.

H.R.8689 - Amtrak Executive Bonus Disclosure Act

Summary: This bill requires Amtrak to publicly disclose the annual base pay and bonus compensation paid to an Amtrak executive in a required annual report to Congress.

Specifically, Amtrak must incorporate into the annual report the annual base pay and any bonus compensation paid to a member of the executive leadership team. This must include the criteria and metrics used to determine any bonus compensation.

Further, Amtrak must make the annual report available on Amtrak's public website.

H.R.7671 - Disaster Management Costs Modernization Act

Summary: This bill authorizes the President to allow recipients of certain disaster relief assistance to use excess management cost funds for (1) building capacity to prepare for, recover from, or mitigate the impacts of a major disaster or emergency; or (2) management costs associated with other major disasters, emergencies, disaster preparedness measures, or mitigation activities. (Management costs cover indirect costs, direct administrative costs, and other administrative expenses associated with a specific project under a major disaster, emergency, disaster preparedness, or disaster mitigation activity. In some cases, the amount provided for management costs may be more than the amount expended, resulting in an excess.)

H.R.2892 - WARN Act

Summary: This bill directs the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to study the effectiveness of local, state, and federal alerting systems in disseminating timely and relevant information during weather-related emergencies.

In conducting the study, the GAO must (1) evaluate the efficacy of various alert mediums, including platforms such as social media; (2) assess the guidance and training for developing alert content; and (3) determine whether improvements could be made to public alerting based on input from a sample of emergency managers, local officials, and community groups.

H.R.2672 - FEMA Loan Interest Payment Relief Act

Summary: This bill directs the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to provide financial assistance to a local government or electric cooperative as reimbursement for interest paid on a loan used for emergency or disaster recovery activities later paid for by FEMA assistance. The interest that qualifies for reimbursement may not exceed the amount of interest that would have been paid if the loan's interest rate were equal to the most recent prime rate.

S.2781 - Good Samaritan Remediation of Abandoned Hardrock Mines Act of 2024

Summary: This bill promotes the remediation of abandoned hardrock mine sites by Good Samaritans. A Good Samaritan means a person that is (1) not a past or current owner or operator of the abandoned site; (2) had no role in the creation of the historic mine residue; and (3) is not potentially liable under any law for the remediation, treatment, or control of the historic mine residue.

The bill requires the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to establish a Good Samaritan pilot program. Under the program, the EPA may issue certain permits to allow Good Samaritans to remediate historic mine residue at abandoned hardrock mine sites to protect human health and the environment without being subject to enforcement or liability under specified environmental laws for past, present, or future releases, threats of releases, or discharges of hazardous substances or other contaminants at or from the abandoned mine site. EPA may only grant permits for projects that meet certain requirements. The bill terminates the program after seven years.

The bill also outlines requirements for reviewing Good Samaritan permits under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969.

In addition, the bill establishes a Good Samaritan Mine Remediation Fund for land management agencies that authorize Good Samaritans to conduct remediation projects on federal land.

H.R.9769 - Strengthening Cyber Resilience Against State-Sponsored Threats Act

Summary: The bill creates a joint interagency task force to facilitate agency collaboration on efforts to respond to Chinese state-sponsored cyber actors, including Volt Typhoon.

The task force shall be established and led by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), an agency within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The task force shall facilitate collaboration and coordination among the Sector Risk Management Agencies (SRMAs) specified in the President's National Security Memorandum- 22 (e.g., the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Agriculture) to detect, analyze, and respond to Chinese state-sponsored cyber actors by ensuring that such agencies’ actions are aligned and mutually reinforcing.

The bill directs DHS, CISA, the Department of Justice, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and specified SRMAs to provide the task force with analysis, inspections, audits, and other relevant information that is necessary for the task force to carry out its responsibilities. The production and use of information must comply with all applicable statutes, regulations, and executive orders, and task force members must have appropriate security clearances to access classified information.

The task force must provide annual reports and briefings to Congress detailing its assessment of cyber threats and recommendations to improve the detection and mitigation of the cybersecurity threat posed by Chinese state-sponsored cyber actors.

The first report must be provided no later than 540 days after the establishment of the task force, and additional reports must be provided annually thereafter for six years.

H.R.9689 - DHS Cybersecurity Internship Program Act

Summary: This bill directs the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to carry out a cybersecurity internship program. Under this program, DHS must provide paid cybersecurity internships to participating students enrolled in secondary schools; technical, trade, or vocational schools; or institutions of higher education.

H.R.8692 - Amtrak Transparency and Accountability for Passengers and Taxpayers Act

Summary: This bill directs Amtrak to comply with federal open meeting requirements under the Government in the Sunshine Act, with exceptions.

Under the bill, certain open meeting requirements do not apply to any portion or portions of a meeting that Amtrak properly determines are likely to involve

• contract negotiations, including negotiations for contract procurements and agreements, the disclosure of which would imperil or compromise Amtrak’s competitive position;

• collective bargaining agreements or any terms and conditions that are proposed for inclusion in an agreement; and

• matters involving the employment, appointment, termination, terms and conditions of employment, performance evaluation, promotion, or disciplining of a current or prospective Amtrak officer, employee, or contractor (unless all affected individuals request in writing that the matter or matters be discussed at a public meeting).

H.R.7365 - VETS Safe Travel Act

Summary: This bill makes certain veterans eligible for the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) PreCheck Program at no cost if they meet the program's background check and security requirements.

Veterans who are eligible for this fee waiver are those who are in the patient enrollment system of the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and require the use of a wheelchair, prosthetic limb, or other assistive device to aid with mobility due to (1) loss, or loss of use, of a limb; (2) full or partial paralyzation; or (3) permanent blindness.

The VA and the TSA must develop and implement a process under which eligible veterans may receive the PreCheck Program benefit.

Further, the VA and the TSA must develop and implement a process to provide disabled veterans with effective outreach about TSA programs that are designed to improve the screening process for passengers with disabilities.

H.R.6229 - DHS Special Events Program and Support Act

Summary: This bill provides statutory authority for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to conduct security assessments and provide security and situational awareness support for pre-planned special events that are not designated as National Special Security Events. (National Special Security Events are major federal government or public events so designated by the President or DHS, such as presidential inaugurations, major international summits, and major sporting events.)

Under the bill, DHS must establish a standard process for federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial officials to voluntarily submit requests to DHS for event assessment and possible security and situational awareness support. DHS must assess such requests using a risk-based methodology and include a process for expedited consideration and, where appropriate, for reassessment.

DHS must also carry out research and development of technologies and techniques for enhancing DHS's security and situational awareness support to such officials relating to mass gatherings in a manner consistent with constitutional, privacy, civil rights, and civil liberties protections.

H.R.8753 - To direct the United States Postal Service to designate single, unique ZIP Codes for certain communities, and for other purposes.

Summary: This bill requires the U.S Postal Service to designate a single, unique ZIP Code for 31 communities.

Bills Passed via Roll Call Vote Under Suspension of the Rules (2/3 Needed)

S.4367 - Thomas R. Carper Water Resources Development Act of 2024

Summary: This bill authorizes, deauthorizes, and modifies various water resources feasibility studies and projects of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, such as studies or projects to

• make certain waterways more navigable,

• support water supply and storage projects,

• reduce flood and storm damage,

• restore aquatic ecosystems and conserve fish and wildlife,

• maintain ports and harbors,

• manage recreational sites and facilities,

• rehabilitate dams,

• construct water and wastewater infrastructure, and

• support other water resources infrastructure.

Vote: Republicans: 192 Yeas, 18 Nays

Democrats: 207 Yeas

Total: 399 Yeas, 18 Nays

S.3613 - Improving Federal Building Security Act of 2024

Summary: This bill requires Facility Security Committees to respond to security recommendations issued by the Federal Protective Service (FPS) regarding facility security.

A Facility Security Committee is a committee that (1) consists of representatives of all federal tenants in a specific nonmilitary facility, the security organization for the facility, and the owning or leasing federal tenant; and (2) is responsible for addressing facility-specific security issues and approving the implementation of security measures and practices in the facility.

Not later than 90 days after the FPS issues a security recommendation to a Facility Security Committee, that committee must (1) respond to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) indicating if the committee intends to adopt or reject the recommendation; and (2) provide DHS with a justification, if it intends to reject the recommendation, for accepting the risk posed by that rejection.

DHS must (1) develop a procedure to monitor the recommendations and responses and take reasonable action to ensure Facility Security Committee response, and (2) report to Congress 270 days after this bill's enactment and annually thereafter regarding such recommendations and responses and this procedure.

Vote: Republicans: 205 Yeas, 6 Nays

Democrats: 205 Yeas

Total: 410 Yeas, 6 Nays

H.R.9668 - SHIELD Against CCP Act

Summary: This bill establishes within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) a working group to assess and improve efforts to address security threats posed to the United States by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The threats to be addressed are terrorist, cybersecurity, border and port security, and transportation security threats.

The working group must examine and report on DHS efforts to counter such threats from the CCP and identify gaps in DHS activities to respond to these threats. The working group must account for the DHS resources dedicated to countering such threats, build upon existing evaluations, and avoid unnecessary duplication. The bill requires DHS to provide Congress with annual reports and briefings on the activities of the working group.

Further, the bill directs DHS to research and develop technologies and techniques for enhancing DHS's security and situational awareness relating to the threats posed by the CCP.

The bill also requires the Government Accountability Office to report to Congress on the bill's implementation.

The bill’s provisions sunset seven years after the date of the working group’s establishment.

Vote: Republicans: 206 Yeas, 2 Nays

Democrats: 203 Yeas, 2 Nays

Total: 409 Yeas, 4 Nays

H.R.9716 - Increasing Baseline Updates Act

Summary: This bill requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to submit to Congress at least two updates to its annual baseline. At least one of the updates must include the economic data used by CBO to calculate the update.

(A baseline is a projection of federal spending and receipts during a fiscal year under current law. Under current law, CBO is required to publish the baseline by February 15 of each year. While there is no statutory requirement for specific updates, CBO generally provides an update with its analysis of the President's annual budget request. It has also provided some updates during the summer, depending on the timing of the President's budget request.)

The bill also requires the President to submit technical budget data to Congress on or before February 1 of each year. Currently, federal agencies provide the data to Congress as part of the President's budget request.

Vote: Republicans: 208 Yeas

Democrats: 199 Yeas

Total: 407 Yeas

Bills Passed Via Regular Order (Majority Needed)

H.R.7673 - Liberty in Laundry Act

Summary: This bill places limits on the authority of the Department of Energy (DOE) to prescribe or enforce energy conservation standards for clothes washers. Specifically, the bill prohibits DOE from prescribing or enforcing such standards unless they (1) are technologically feasible and economically justified, (2) are not likely to result in additional net costs to consumers, and (3) will result in significant conservation of energy.

Arguments: Proponents of this bill, mostly Republicans, argue that the Biden Administration’s energy policies have made everyday items for Americans more expensive. The DOE has been applying standards to appliances that make them more expensive at the store. These standards are not worth the cost.

Opponents of the bill, all Democrats, argue that it is essential that we continue down the path of energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gases. Additionally, costs for consumers will be lower over time because these standards will save consumers money on their utility bills.

Vote: Republicans: 209 Yeas

Democrats: 6 Yeas, 200 Nays

Total: 215 Yeas, 200 Nays

S.4199 - JUDGES Act of 2024

Summary: This bill adds judges to multiple district courts across the United States divided upon the next three Presidents of the United States.

Arguments: Supporters of this bill argue that there is too much backlog in our court system and more judges are needed.

Opponents argue that Republicans waited until President Trump was elected to give them the edge in appointing Republican Judges. This bill should have been passed before the election.

Vote: Republicans: 207 Yeas, 2 Nays

Democrats: 29 Yeas, 171 Nays

Total: 236 Yeas, 173 Nays

H.R.5009 - Servicemember Quality of Life Improvement and National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025

Summary: This bill authorizes the U.S.’s national defense programs for the fiscal year 2025. The topline number was $895 billion worth of authorized expenditures.

This bill also bans Tricare coverage of transgender treatments for children of military members.

Arguments: Democratic Opponents voted against the bill because they believe that banning Tricare coverage of transgender kids is an unfair attack, and Republicans are adding fire to the culture war.

Vote: Republicans: 200 Yeas, 16 Nays

Democrats: 81 Yeas, 124 Nays

Total: 281 Yeas, 140 Nays

U.S Senate

*cloture votes and procedural votes are not included unless they fail and significantly alter the legislative process.

**Also does not include legislation that renames federal facilities or designation resolutions (such as renaming post offices or commemorating a historical event, among other similar things).

***Does not include standard approval of military confirmation unless it is significant. For example, the Senate actually approves almost EVERY promotion.

Judicial Confirmations

PN2016- Confirmation of Tiffany Rene Johnson, of Georgia, to be U.S. District Judge for the Northern District of Georgia

Vote: Republicans: 44 Nays

Democrats: 45 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas

Total: 48 Yeas, 44 Nays

PN2017- Confirmation of Keli Marie Neary, of Pennsylvania, to be U.S. District Judge for the Middle District of Pennsylvania

Vote: Republicans: 48 Nays

Democrats: 46 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas

Total: 49 Yeas, 48 Nays

PN 1650- Confirmation of Cynthia Valenzuela Dixon, of California, to be U.S. District Judge for the Central District of California

Vote: Republicans: 47 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 2 Yeas

Total: 49 Yeas, 47 Nays

PN1827- Confirmation of Noel Wise, of California, to be U.S. District Judge for the Northern District of California

Vote: Republicans: 46 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas, 1 Nay

Total: 50 Yeas, 47 Nays

PN1980 - Confirmation of Matthew James Marzano, of Illinois, to be a Member of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Vote: Republicans: 44 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas, 1 Nay

Total: 50 Yeas, 45 Nays

Significant Procedural Votes

Motion to Invoke Cloture on Lauren McGarity McFerran to be a Member of the National Labor Relations Board

Arguments: Senator Joe Manchin (I-WV) came onto the Senate floor at the last minute to cast the deciding vote ending Ms. McFerran’s chance to join the NLRB. Senator Manchin claimed her support for a 2023 rule that subjected franchisees to litigation based on their subcontractors resulted in his Nay vote.

Vote: Republicans: 48 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 2 Yeas, 2 Nays

Total: 49 Yeas, 50 Nays

Bills Passed via Unanimous Consent or Voice Vote

S.709 - Federal Agency Performance Act of 2024

Summary: Summary: This bill addresses federal agency performance and accountability.

Specifically, the bill revises requirements regarding strategic reviews of federal agencies' performance goals and requires a Deputy Performance Improvement Officer to support the Performance Improvement Officer.

With respect to strategic reviews, not less frequently than annually and consistent with guidance issued by the Office of Management and Budget, each agency must take specified actions, including

• for each goal or objective established in the agency's strategic plan, review the progress achieved toward the goal and the likelihood that the agency will achieve the goal;

• identify any risks or impediments that would decrease the likelihood that the agency will achieve the goal; and

• for each goal at greatest risk of not being achieved, identify prospects and strategies for performance improvement.

Additionally, the bill requires that federal government priority goals (1) be updated and revised not less frequently than during the first year of each presidential term, (2) include plans for the successful achievement of each goal within each single presidential term, and (3) explicitly cite to any specific contents of the budget that support the achievement of each goal.

The Government Accountability Office must report to Congress on the effectiveness of this bill.

H.R.1097 - Everett Alvarez, Jr. Congressional Gold Medal Act of 2023

Summary: This bill provides for the award of a Congressional Gold Medal to Everett Alvarez Jr. in recognition of his service to the nation.

H.R.3254 - First Responder Access to Innovative Technologies Act

Summary: This bill directs the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to implement a uniform process for reviewing applications for certain anti-terrorism grants to urban areas and state, local, and tribal governments.

Specifically, the uniform review must be done for grant applications requesting to purchase first responder equipment or systems that do not meet or exceed any applicable national voluntary consensus standards.

H.R.3797 - Paperwork Burden Reduction Act

Summary: This bill modifies provisions under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act so that employers and health insurance providers are no longer required to send tax forms to covered individuals showing proof of minimum essential coverage (1095-B and 1095-C tax forms) unless a form is requested.

Currently, employers and health insurance providers that provide minimum essential coverage must report this information for each covered individual to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and provide a copy of this information to the covered individual (through 1095-B and 1095-C tax forms) by January 31 of each year.

The IRS allows for 1095-B tax forms, which are sent by certain health insurance providers and employers, to be made available to individuals only upon request. The bill provides statutory authority for this flexibility and extends this flexibility to 1095-C tax forms, which are sent by certain large employers. Such requests must be fulfilled by January 31 or 30 days after the date of the request, whichever is later. Employers and health insurance providers must give individuals timely notice of this option, in accordance with any requirements set by the IRS.

H.R.3801 - Employer Reporting Improvement Act

Summary: This bill modifies provisions under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act that require employers and health insurance providers to prepare tax forms showing proof of minimum essential coverage (1095-B and 1095-C tax forms).

Currently, employers and health insurance providers that provide minimum essential coverage must report this information for each covered individual to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), including the covered individual's Tax Identification Number (TIN). Employers and providers must also send a copy of this information to the covered individual (through 1095-B and 1095-C tax forms) by January 31 of each year.

The IRS allows for an individual's date of birth to be substituted for the individual's TIN if the TIN is not available. The IRS also allows employers and providers to offer 1095-B and 1095-C tax forms to individuals electronically. The bill provides statutory authority for these flexibilities.

Additionally, under current law, large employers (generally those with 50 or more full-time employees) are subject to an assessment by the IRS if they do not offer affordable minimum essential coverage. The bill requires the IRS to give large employers at least 90 days to respond after sending its first letter about a proposed assessment (Currently, the IRS generally gives 30 days to respond.) It also establishes a six-year statute of limitations for collecting assessments.

H.R.6829 - HEARTS Act of 2024

Summary: This bill establishes a series of programs and requirements relating to cardiomyopathy. (Cardiomyopathy refers to a collection of diverse conditions of the heart muscle that can affect the ability of the heart to pump blood.)

Specifically, the Department of Health and Human Services must disseminate information about cardiomyopathy and the use of automated external defibrillators (AEDs) to certain school professionals, families, and others, and it must develop specified risk assessment tools for cardiomyopathy. In addition, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention must report on certain research and surveillance activities, and the National Institutes of Health must report on its research relating to cardiomyopathy.

The bill also establishes a grant program to provide cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) training and AEDs in public schools.

H.R.6960 - Emergency Medical Services for Children Reauthorization Act of 2024

Summary: This bill reauthorizes through FY2029 the Emergency Medical Services for Children State Partnership Program, which is administered by the Health Resources and Services Administration. The program awards grants to state governments and medical schools to support emergency medical services for children who need treatment for trauma or critical care.

H.R.7872 - Colorado River Salinity Control Fix Act

Summary: This bill modifies the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act to increase the federal cost share of certain salinity control programs that reduce the salt load in the Colorado River and other waters in the basin.

H.R.5301 - Eliminate Useless Reports Act of 2024

Summary: This bill requires federal agencies to include a list of outdated or duplicative reporting requirements and related information in their annual budget justifications.

Specifically, the agencies must include a list of each recurring plan or report submitted by the agency and specified identifying information for the plans or reports. The agencies must also identify any recurring plans or reports that are outdated or duplicative.

With respect to each recurring plan or report that is outdated or duplicative, the agency must also include

• a recommendation on whether to end, modify, consolidate, or reduce the frequency of the report or plan;

• a citation to each provision of law or directive in a congressional report that requires or requests the submission of the report or plan;

• a list of the relevant congressional committees; and

• a justification that explains why the agency made the recommendation and the agency's understanding of the purpose of the plan or report.

If a recurring plan or report is required to be submitted by at least two federal agencies, the bill requires the Office of Management and Budget to (1) determine whether the requirement to submit the recurring plan or report is outdated or duplicative, and (2) make recommendations to Congress accordingly.

H.R.5646 - Stop Campus Hazing Act

Summary: This bill requires institutions of higher education (IHEs) that participate in federal student aid programs to report hazing incidents.

Specifically, the bill requires each IHE to disclose hazing incidents that were reported to campus security authorities or local police agencies in its annual security report. The bill defines the term hazing to mean any intentional, knowing, or reckless act committed by a person against a student (regardless of that student's willingness to participate), that (1) is connected with an initiation into, an affiliation with, or the maintenance of membership in, an organization (e.g., a club, athletic team, fraternity, or sorority); and (2) causes or is likely to contribute to a substantial risk, above the reasonable risk encountered in the course of participation in the IHE or the organization, of physical injury, mental harm, or degradation.

In addition, each IHE must develop and distribute as part of its annual security report a statement of policy regarding the following: (1) a comprehensive program to prevent hazing, which must include information on hazing awareness and hazing prevention; and (2) the IHE's current campus policies on hazing, which must include procedures that comply with specified collection and reporting requirements.

S.1351 - Stop Institutional Child Abuse Act

Summary: This bill establishes an interagency Federal Work Group on Youth Residential Programs to support and implement best practices regarding the health and safety, care, treatment, and appropriate placement of youth in youth residential programs.

The work group must develop recommendations about a national database to aggregate information about processes and outcomes for youth in such programs. The work group also must support the education and training of professional and paraprofessional personnel in fields that service such youth.

Further, the Department of Health and Human Services must contract with the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to study and make recommendations about various aspects of federal and state oversight of youth residential programs.

S.5060 - PROTECT Our Children Reauthorization Act of 2024

Summary: This bill reauthorizes the National Strategy for Child Exploitation Prevention and Interdiction which includes the Internet Crimes Against Children Task Force Program.

H.R.8663 - DETECT Fentanyl and Xylazine Act of 2024

Summary: This bill provides statutory authority for the Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Directorate to take certain actions to support the detection of drugs such as fentanyl and xylazine.

Specifically, the bill provides statutory authority for the directorate's research and development efforts to improve drug detection equipment and reference libraries for law enforcement agencies, including with respect to portable equipment, equipment that can analyze complex samples, and technology that uses artificial intelligence or other techniques to detect new substances. The bill additionally requires the directorate to follow certain standards and rely on certain information from the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the Drug Enforcement Administration, respectively, regarding these efforts.

S.59 - Chance to Compete Act of 2024

Summary: This bill modifies examination requirements and other components of the federal hiring process for positions in the competitive service.

Specifically, the bill provides that a qualifying examination includes a résumé review that is conducted by a subject matter expert. Additionally, beginning two years after the bill's enactment, the bill prohibits examinations from consisting solely of a self-assessment from an automated examination, a résumé review that is not conducted by a subject matter expert, or any other method of assessing an applicant's experience or education.

Agencies may use subject matter experts to develop position-specific technical assessments that allow applicants to demonstrate job-related skills, abilities, and knowledge; assessments may include structured interviews, work-related exercises, procedures to measure career-related qualifications and interests, or other similar assessments. The bill also allows agencies to establish talent teams to support and improve hiring practices.

The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) must create online platforms through which agencies may share and customize technical assessments and share the résumés of qualifying applicants. The OPM must also create online platforms with information about the types of assessments used and hiring outcomes.

S.141 - Senator Elizabeth Dole 21st Century Veterans Healthcare and Benefits Improvement Act

Summary: This bill addresses home care and caregiver programs provided by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).

Under the bill, the cost of providing noninstitutional alternatives to nursing home care may not exceed the cost that would have been incurred if a veteran had been furnished VA nursing home care, unless the VA determines that a higher cost is in the best interest of the veteran. (Under current law, these expenditures are limited to 65% of the cost.)

Among other requirements, the VA must

• establish a partnership with the Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly in certain areas to furnish noninstitutional alternatives to nursing home care;

• implement various programs (e.g., the Veteran Directed Care program) to expand access to home- and community-based services;

• provide specified support and benefits to caregivers of certain disabled veterans;

• implement a pilot program to provide homemaker and home health aide services to veterans who reside in communities with a shortage of home health aides; and

• ensure the availability of home and community-based services for Native American veterans.

For veterans or family caregivers who are discharged from the Program of Comprehensive Assistance for Family Caregivers, a caregiver support coordinator must provide for a personalized transition to an appropriate program.

The Veterans Health Administration must review programs administered through the Office of Geriatric and Extended Care to ensure consistency in program management, eliminate service gaps at the medical center level, and ensure the availability of and access to home and community-based services.

S.920 - International Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2024

Summary: This bill reauthorizes various international antitrafficking activities and foreign assistance programs; requires counter-trafficking strategies, activities, and efforts to be further integrated into projects supported by U.S. foreign assistance; and expands related reporting requirements.

S.2513 - Veterans Benefits Improvement Act of 2024

Summary: No summary could be quoted or paraphrased. The text of the bill can be found here

S.2783 - Miccosukee Reserved Area Amendments Act

Summary: This bill expands the Miccosukee Reserved Area to include a portion of Everglades National Park in Florida that is known as Osceola Camp. The Department of the Interior, in consultation with the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians, must take appropriate actions to protect structures within the Osceola Camp from flooding.

S.2908 - Indian Buffalo Management Act

Summary: This bill establishes a permanent program within the Department of the Interior to develop and promote tribal ownership and management of buffalo and buffalo habitat on Indian lands.

Specifically, the bill requires Interior to (1) enter into contracts, award grants, and provide technical assistance to Indian tribes and tribal organizations for activities related to buffalo restoration or management; (2) consult with tribes and tribal organizations on initiatives that affect buffalo or buffalo habitat, including efforts to contain or eradicate diseased buffalo; and (3) develop a policy relating to buffalo and buffalo habitat management activities on Indian land.

Additionally, Interior may enter into agreements with tribes or tribal organizations to transport surplus buffalo from federal land onto Indian land.

S.3857 - Jamul Indian Village Land Transfer Act

Summary: This bill takes approximately 172.1 acres of specified lands in San Diego, California, into trust for the benefit of the Jamul Indian Village of California. Land taken into trust shall be part of the tribe's reservation.

The bill prohibits gaming on the land taken into trust.

S.4000 - A bill to reaffirm the applicability of the Indian Reorganization Act to the Lytton Rancheria of California, and for other purposes.

Summary: No summary could be quoted or paraphrased. The text of the bill can be found here

S.4365 - Veterinary Services to Improve Public Health in Rural Communities Act

Summary: This bill works to improve veterinary services and to prevent the spread of zoonotic diseases in Indian communities.

S.5046 - FDA Modernization Act 3.0

Summary: This bill requires the Secretary of Health and Human Services, acting through the Commissioner of Food and Drugs, to publish a final rule relating to nonclinical testing methods.

*Rule and procedural votes are not included unless it significantly alters legislative process

**Also does not include legislation that renames federal facilities or designation resolutions (such as renaming post offices or commemorating a historical event, among other similar things)

***Debate and arguments are included for all bills under regular order and any bill under suspension of the rules that had organized opposition that spoke against it on the floor during debate

Bills Passed Unanimously Under Suspension of the Rules

There were five bills from the Judiciary Committee that made technical changes to a wide variety of statutes in the United States Code.

The five bills were:

H.R. 7326 – To amend chapters 4, 10, and 131 of title 5, United States Code, as necessary to keep those chapters current and to correct related technical errors.

H.R. 7324 – To make improvements in the enactment of title 41, United States Code, into a positive law title and to improve the Code.

H.R. 7341 – To make technical amendments to title 49, United States Code, as necessary to improve the Code.

H.R. 7316 – To make revisions in Title 54, United States Code, into a positive law title and to correct related technical errors. e)

H.R. 7339 – To make revisions in Title 51, United States Code, as necessary to keep the title current, and to make technical amendments to improve the United States Code.

S.3960 - A bill to amend title 35, United States Code, to provide a good faith exception to the imposition of fines for false assertions and certifications, and for other purposes.

Summary: This bill creates a good faith exception to certain fines imposed by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO).

Currently, the USPTO may reduce patent-related fees for small and micro entities, and an entity that falsely claims a fee reduction shall be subject to a fine. This bill exempts an entity from such a fine if the entity made a good faith assertion or certification that the entity was entitled to a fee reduction.

H.R.7177 - To amend title 28, United States Code, to consolidate certain divisions in the Northern District of Alabama.

Summary: This bill consolidates the seven existing divisions in the Northern District of Alabama into five divisions.

H.R.8666 - To amend title 28, United States Code, to authorize holding court for the Central Division of Utah in Moab and Monticello.

Summary: This bill adds Moab and Monticello to the list of places where court must be held in the Central Division of the U.S. District Court of Utah.

H.R.9563 - Protecting Americans from Russian Litigation Act of 2024

Summary: This bill prohibits civil claims in federal court for harm resulting from the imposition of U.S. sanctions (e.g., export controls) impeding the performance of a contract.

The prohibition only applies if the U.S. sanctions went into effect after the date on which the contract was executed.

H.R.9151 - Protecting American Industry and Labor from International Trade Crimes Act of 2024

Summary: This bill requires the Department of Justice to establish a task force, program, or other similar structure within its Criminal Division to investigate and prosecute trade-related crimes.

H.R.7872 - Colorado River Salinity Control Fix Act

Summary: This bill modifies the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act to increase the federal cost share of certain salinity control programs that reduce the salt load in the Colorado River and other waters in the basin.

H.R.7332 - Utah State Parks Adjustment Act

Summary: This bill requires the Bureau of Land Management and the Forest Service to convey certain federal lands to Utah for inclusion in the following Utah State Parks:

• Antelope Island State Park

• Wasatch Mountain State Park

• Fremont Indian State Park.

Utah must use the lands for public purposes, including parks, campgrounds, recreation, and permitted livestock grazing.

Utah must also cover any costs relating to the conveyances for the Antelope Island State Park and the Wasatch Mountain State Park, including costs for surveys and other administrative costs.

As a condition of the conveyance to the Fremont Indian State Park, the Forest Service must:

• reserve easements to the conveyed land to be included in Fremont Indian State Park for all National Forest System roads and trails that originate at, terminate at, or traverse the conveyed land

• convey to Utah only certain water rights that provide water to the Castle Rock Campground and the Belknap Historic Guard Station interpretive site.

The bill also authorizes the Forest Service to enter into an agreement with Utah with respect to additional terms and conditions applicable to the conveyance, such as maintenance of roads and trails.

H.R.6843 - To expand the boundaries of the Atchafalaya National Heritage Area to include Lafourche Parish, Louisiana.

Summary: This bill expands the boundaries of Atchafalaya National Heritage Area to include Lafourche Parish, Louisiana. It also expands the membership of the local coordinating entity to include the parish.

H.R.9566 - SHARE IT Act

Summary: This bill requires federal agencies to ensure that custom-developed code (i.e., source code that is produced under an agency contract, funded exclusively by the federal government, or developed by federal employees as part of their official duties) and certain technical components of the code such as architecture designs and metadata are

• owned by the agency

• stored at no less than one public or private repository

• accessible to federal employees under certain procedures. Agency contracts for custom-development of software must acquire and exercise rights sufficient to allow government-wide access, sharing, use, and modification of any custom-developed code.

The bill does not apply to source code that is classified, developed primarily for use in a national security system, or developed by an element of the intelligence community. An agency's office of the chief information officer may exempt source code from being shared or made publicly accessible to protect individual privacy.

H.R.7480 - Disabled Veterans Housing Support Act

Summary: This bill excludes compensation received for a military service-connected disability from a veteran's income when determining eligibility for assistance under the Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program.

The CDBG program provides grants to urban communities for development activities focused on revitalizing neighborhoods, economic development, and providing improved community facilities and services.

Additionally, the Government Accountability Office must report on how service-connected disability compensation is treated when determining eligibility for all programs administered by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This includes identifying instances where the treatment of such compensation is inconsistent with the requirement under this bill.

H.R.6751 - Roberto Clemente Commemorative Coin Act

Summary: This bill directs the Department of the Treasury to mint and issue coins in recognition of the life of Roberto Clemente, baseball player and human rights activist. All sales of coins issued under this bill must include a surcharge to be paid to the Roberto Clemente Foundation.

H.R.1695 - Strengthening Agency Management and Oversight of Software Assets Act

Summary: The bill requires each agency to complete a comprehensive assessment of the software entitlements and software inventories of the agency and submit the assessment to the head of the agency, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the General Services Administration, the Government Accountability Office (GAO), and Congress.

Each agency must use the information developed pursuant to the assessment to develop a plan for the agency to (1) consolidate software licenses of the agency; and (2) adopt enterprise license agreements across the agency by type or category of software in order to improve the performance of, and reduce unnecessary costs across, the agency.

The OMB must submit to Congress a strategy that includes:

• proposals to support the adoption of governmentwide enterprise licenses for software entitlements identified through the assessments and plans;

• opportunities to leverage government procurement policies and practices to increase interoperability of software entitlements acquired and deployed to reduce costs and improve performance;

• the incorporation of data on spending by agencies on, the performance of, and management by agencies of software entitlements as part of certain required information; and

• where applicable, directions to agencies to examine options and relevant criteria for transitioning to open-source software.

The GAO must report on governmentwide trends, comparisons among agencies, and other analyses of plans and strategy.

H.R.8413 - Swanson and Hugh Butler Reservoirs Land Conveyances Act

Summary: This bill provides for the conveyance of certain federal lands located at the Swanson Reservoir and Hugh Butler Reservoir in Nebraska to Hitchcock County and Frontier County, respectively. The counties must manage the land for substantially the same purposes for which they are being used or for (1) certain public recreation purposes, (2) public access, (3) fish and wildlife habitat, or (4) the preservation of the natural character of the land.

Within three years, the Bureau of Reclamation must enter into negotiations to transfer (1) the Swanson Permitted Cabin Land, the Swanson Permitted Concession Land, and the Lakeview Lodge Permitted Concession Land to Hitchcock County; and (2) the Red Willow Permitted Cabin Land and the Red Willow Permitted Concession Land to Frontier County. Reclamation must offer to convey the land as soon as practicable after the title transfer agreement is made. The land must be conveyed in whole and not subdivided. Additionally, the bill subjects the conveyances to certain existing rights and requirements. Further, the bill limits future conveyances of the land.

Reclamation must enter into a memorandum of agreement with each county to establish and define the roles and responsibilities for actions required to convey the land.

The counties must provide compensation to the Reclamation Fund in an amount equal to the fair market value of the land. The counties must also pay the conveyance costs in advance of the conveyance.

H.R.6395 - Recognizing the Importance of Critical Minerals in Healthcare Act of 2023

Summary: This bill requires the Department of the Interior to include the Department of Health and Human Services in consultations regarding designations of critical minerals, elements, substances, and materials.

H.R.5103 - FISHES Act

Summary: This bill establishes procedures for the review of spend plans submitted to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) by requesters seeking fishery resource disaster assistance funding.

The bill requires NOAA to review a spend plan within 10 days of its submission and determine whether it is complete. If such spend plan is not complete, NOAA must provide the requester (i.e., prospective grantee) with a detailed description of the information that is necessary for the spend plan to be determined complete. Further, NOAA must notify a requester when the spend plan has been determined to be complete.

Under current law, fishery resource disaster assistance funds must be disbursed to approved grantees within 90 days after NOAA has received a completed spend plan. The bill provides that the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) may review a completed spend plan concurrently with NOAA, provided OMB's review does not delay the 90-day timeline for providing funds to the grantee.

S.4243 - Shirley Chisholm Congressional Gold Medal Act

Summary: This bill authorizes that creation and distribution of a Shirley Chisholm Congressional Gold Medal.

S.91 - Forgotten Heroes of the Holocaust Congressional Gold Medal Act

Summary: This bill provides for the award of a single Congressional Gold Medal to 60 diplomats posthumously in recognition of their brave and vital service of saving Jews during World War II. The single gold medal shall be presented collectively to the eldest next of kin of each of the 60 diplomats and then be given to the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum.

Bills Passed via Roll Call Vote Under Suspension of the Rules (2/3 Needed)

S.3791 - America’s Conservation Enhancement Reauthorization Act of 2024

Summary: This bill reauthorizes several conservation programs such as:

• Chronic Wasting Disease Task Force

• Management of Invasive Species

• North American Wetlands Conservation Act

• National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Establishment Act

• Chesapeake Bay Program

• Chesapeake Bay Initiative Act of 1998

• Fish Habitat Conservation Projects under the America's Conservation Enhancement Act.

Additionally, this bill provides statutory authority for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to carry out a black vulture livestock protection program that allows one public entity per state to hold a statewide depredation permit to protect commercial agriculture livestock from black vulture predation. It also authorizes appropriations for the FWS to complete the National Fish Habitat Assessment and the associated database.

Finally, the bill extends through FY2030 a prohibition on the Environmental Protection Agency taking any action to regulate the lead content of sport fishing equipment or components under the Toxic Substances Control Act.

Vote: Republicans: 175 Yeas, 21 Nays

Democrats: 191 Yeas

Total: 366 Yeas, 21 Nays

H.R.8219 - Lahaina National Heritage Area Study Act

Summary: This bill directs the National Park Service to assess the suitability and feasibility of designating Lahaina, Maui County, Hawaii, as the Lahaina National Heritage Area under the National Heritage Areas Act.

Vote: Republicans: 178 Yeas, 25 Nays

Democrats: 200 Yeas

Total: 378 Yeas, 25 Nays

H.R.390 - Maurice D. Hinchey Hudson River Valley National Heritage Area Enhancement Act

Summary: This bill directs the National Park Service to assess the suitability and feasibility of adding the rest of Saratoga County and Washington County in New York to the Maurice D. Hinchey Hudson River Valley National Heritage Area in New York.

Vote: Republicans: 178 Yeas, 16 Nays

Democrats: 195 Yeas

Total: 378 Yeas, 16 Nays

S.709 - Federal Agency Performance Act of 2024

Summary: This bill addresses federal agency performance and accountability.

Specifically, the bill revises requirements regarding strategic reviews of federal agencies' performance goals and requires a Deputy Performance Improvement Officer to support the Performance Improvement Officer.

With respect to strategic reviews, not less frequently than annually and consistent with guidance issued by the Office of Management and Budget, each agency must take specified actions, including

• for each goal or objective established in the agency's strategic plan, review the progress achieved toward the goal and the likelihood that the agency will achieve the goal;

• identify any risks or impediments that would decrease the likelihood that the agency will achieve the goal; and

• for each goal at greatest risk of not being achieved, identify prospects and strategies for performance improvement.

Additionally, the bill requires that federal government priority goals (1) be updated and revised not less frequently than during the first year of each presidential term, (2) include plans for the successful achievement of each goal within each single presidential term, and (3) explicitly cite to any specific contents of the budget that support the achievement of each goal.

The Government Accountability Office must report to Congress on the effectiveness of this bill.

Vote: Republicans: 196 Yeas, 6 Nays

Democrats: 193 Yeas

Total: 389 Yeas, 6 Nays

H.R.9598 - Office of National Drug Control Policy Reauthorization Act of 2024

Summary: This bill reauthorizes the Office of National Drug Control Policy.

Vote: Republicans: 203 Yeas, 1 Nay

Democrats: 196 Yeas

Total: 399 Yeas, 1 Nay

Bills Passed Via Regular Order (Majority Needed)

H.R.5349 - Crucial Communism Teaching Act

Summary: This bill directs the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation to develop a civic education curriculum and oral history resources for high school students to promote understanding of certain political ideologies (e.g., communism and totalitarianism) that conflict with principles of U.S. democracy.

Arguments: Proponents of the bill, a large bipartisan group, argue that communism is a destructive ideology, and its threat still exists today. Communist groups consistently attempt to infiltrate the American education system, such as the CCP’s creation of cultural exchange center. This bill would counter foreign propaganda.

Opponents of this bill, both a group of Republicans who didn’t give a reason, and another group of Democrats that argue that there is value in teaching the dangers of communism, but this bill only politicizes education even more. They should be focusing on other things such as increasing graduation rates and making college more affordable. Additionally, fascism is just as dangerous as communism, and it should be in this bill.

Floor Amendments Offered:

Amendment #1: This amendment would put an emphasis specifically on human rights abuses by past and present communist and authoritarian regimes such as China.

Approved unanimously by voice vote

Final Bill Vote: Republicans: 171 Yeas, 28 Nays

Democrats: 156 Yeas, 34 Nays

Total: 327 Yeas, 62 Nays

H.R.7198 - Prove It Act of 2024

Summary: This bill requires agencies to investigate any indirect costs affecting small businesses that may arise upon the enactment of a new regulatory rule.

Entities can petition the Office of Advocacy of the Small Business Administration to contest any indirect effect agencies fail to notice. If the petition succeeds, the agency must conduct a report on such issue. Failure to adhere will result in such proposed regulation will not applying to small entities (usually a business with under 500 employees)

Arguments: Proponents of the bill, mostly Republicans, support this bill to help small businesses defend themselves against “the onslaught of federal regulation.” Compliance with all of these regulations put a significant economic burden on businesses, and it results in higher prices for consumers. This bill will help small businesses have a voice in the regulatory rule making process.

Opponents of the bill, all Democrats, believe this bill would give power to special interest groups by giving unreviewable power to a heavily underfunded Office of Advocacy. Additionally, it would give too much power to the Chief Council who will be given the power be able to strike rules under vague definition. This bill would essentially shut down the regulatory process. The Democrats offered an amendment to the bill.

Floor Amendments Offered:

Amendment #1: Strike the entire bill, and insert language that requires the Office of Advocacy to train other agencies to consider small businesses in regulatory decision making.

Amendment Vote: Republicans: 2 Yeas, 203 Nays

Democrats: 197 Yeas, 1 Nay

Total: 199 Yeas, 204 Nays

Final Bill Vote: Republicans: 206 Yeas

Democrats: 2 Yeas, 196 Nays

Total: 208 Yeas, 196 Nays

Special Procedural Votes

Illinois Democrat Sean Casten and Tennessee Democrat Steve Cohen Introduced privileged resolutions forcing the House Ethics Committee to release the report it had on its investigation into former Rep. Matt Gaetz.

Republican Leader Steve Scalise motioned to refer these resolutions to the Ethics Committee.

The votes were 206-198 and 204-198 with all Republicans, except 1, voting to refer them back to committee and all Democrats voting against it.

U.S Senate

*cloture votes and procedural votes are not included unless they fail and significantly alter the legislative process.

**Also does not include legislation that renames federal facilities or designation resolutions (such as renaming post offices or commemorating a historical event, among other similar things).

***Does not include standard approval of military confirmation unless it is significant. For example, the Senate actually approves almost EVERY promotion.

Judicial Confirmations

PN1651- Confirmation of Anne Hwang, of California, to be U.S. District Judge for the Central District of California

Vote: Republicans: 1 Yea, 43 Nays

Democrats: 45 Yeas

Independents: 2 Yeas

Total: 48 Yeas, 43 Nays

PN1577- Confirmation of Brian Edward Murphy, of Massachusetts, to be U.S. District Judge for the District of Massachusetts

Vote: Republicans: 45 Nays

Democrats: 46 Yeas

Independents: 1Yea

Total: 47 Yeas, 45 Nays

PN1463- Confirmation of Sparkle L. Sooknanan, of the District of Columbia, to be U.S. District Judge for the District of Columbia

Vote: Republicans: 48 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas

Total: 50 Yeas, 48 Nays

PN1806- Confirmation of Catherine Henry, of Pennsylvania, to be U.S. District Judge for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania

Vote: Republicans: 48 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas

Total: 50 Yeas, 48 Nays

PN1905- Confirmation of Gail A. Weilheimer, of Pennsylvania, to be U.S. District Judge for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania

Vote: Republicans: 48 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas

Total: 50 Yeas, 48 Nays

PN2015- Confirmation of Anthony J. Brindisi, of New York, to be U.S. District Judge for the Northern District of New York

Vote: Republicans: 49 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas

Total: 50 Yeas, 49 Nays

PN2039- Confirmation of Elizabeth C. Coombe, of New York, to be U.S. District Judge for the Northern District of New York

Vote: Republicans: 2 Yeas, 45 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas

Total: 52 Yeas, 45 Nays

PN2040- Confirmation of Sarah Morgan Davenport, of New Mexico, to be U.S. District Judge for the District of New Mexico

Vote: Republicans: 2 Yeas, 45 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas

Total: 52 Yeas, 45 Nays

Bills Passed via Unanimous Consent or Voice Vote

H.R.7438 - FIFA World Cup 2026 Commemorative Coin Act

Summary: United States, Mexico, and Canada.

All surcharges received by Treasury from the sale of the coins shall be promptly paid by Treasury to FWC2026 US, Inc. (the U.S.-incorporated FIFA subsidiary operating the FIFA Men's World Cup 2026) for the purpose of aiding soccer programs and activities in the United States.

S.3746 - Gold Star and Surviving Spouse Career Services Act

Summary: This bill makes certain spouses eligible for services under the disabled veterans' outreach program.

S.4305 - DHS Better Ballistic Body Armor Act

Summary: This bill provides for better body armor for DHS agents, particularly female DHS agents.

H.R 5536- Grant Transparency Act of 2023

Summary: This bill establishes transparency requirements for “Notices of Funding Opportunity” and notices must include

• a description of any rating system and evaluation and selection criteria to assess applicants for competitive grants

• a statement of whether the agency uses a weighted scoring method

• any other qualitative or quantitative merit-based approach the agency uses to evaluate an application for the grant

  ---

H.R.7764 - Commission to Study the Potential Transfer of the Weitzman National Museum of American Jewish History to the Smithsonian Institution Act

Summary: This bill establishes a commission to study the potential transfer of the Weitzman National Museum of American Jewish History to the Smithsonian Institution.

Within two years of its first meeting, the commission must submit a report, fundraising plan, and legislative recommendations to Congress and the President. The report must address certain issues, including (1) the impact of the museum on educational and governmental efforts to study and counter anti-Semitism, and (2) financial and legal considerations associated with the potential transfer.

S.1956 - Invent Here, Make Here Act of 2024

Summary: No summary could be quoted or paraphrased. Text of the bill can be found here

S.2514 - Colorado River Salinity Control Fix Act

Summary: This bill modifies the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act to increase the federal cost share of certain salinity control programs that reduce the salt load in the Colorado River and other waters in the basin.

S.3277 - A bill to amend the Marine Debris Act to reauthorize the Marine Debris Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Summary: This bill reauthorizes the Marine Debris Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

S.4107 - Think Differently Transportation Act

Summary: This bill requires the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak) to include information on compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA) in a required annual report to Congress.

Specifically, Amtrak must incorporate into the annual report an action plan for bringing Amtrak stations into compliance with the ADA as required by a 2020 settlement agreement entered into between Amtrak and the Department of Justice. (Under the agreement, Amtrak committed to complying with the ADA and making intercity rail stations accessible.)

Amtrak must also include a status report on ADA compliance at Amtrak-served stations (based on a station assessment by Amtrak or the party responsible for ADA compliance). For those Amtrak-served stations where Amtrak is not responsible for ADA compliance, Amtrak must include in the report information on the responsible party. Amtrak may meet these requirements by demonstrating that Amtrak took reasonable measures to obtain cooperation from responsible entities.

Further, Amtrak must annually submit the action plan and status report while the settlement agreement is in effect and every five years once the agreement is no longer in effect.

S.4243 - Shirley Chisholm Congressional Gold Medal Act

Summary: This bill authorizes that creation and distribution of a Shirley Chisholm Congressional Gold Medal.

S.4569 - TAKE IT DOWN Act

Summary: This bill requires covered platforms to remove nonconsensual intimate visual depictions

S.5355 - NACIE Improvement Act

Summary: This bill ensures that the National Advisory Council on Indian Education includes at least 1 member who is the president of a Tribal College or University

H.R.1432 - VETT Act

Summary: This bill expands the deductibility of charitable contributions to all federally-chartered tax-exempt organizations serving current and former members of the Armed Forces.

H.R.3821 - Firefighter Cancer Registry Reauthorization Act of 2023

Summary: This bill reauthorizes through FY2028 the National Firefighter Registry for Cancer. This is a voluntary registry maintained by the National Institute of Occupational Safety & Health that collects relevant health and occupational information to better understand and reduce cancers among firefighters.

H.R.5863 - Federal Disaster Tax Relief Act of 2023

Summary: No summary could be paraphrased or quoted, and the text is available via committee report here

S.712 - Connected MOM Act

Summary: This bill requires the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to report, and provide resources for states, on coverage of remote physiologic devices and related services (e.g., blood glucose monitors) under Medicaid, so as to improve maternal and child health outcomes for pregnant and postpartum women.

S.3242 - ACCESS Rural America Act

Summary: This bill increases the shareholder registration threshold for issuers receiving support through federal universal service support mechanisms, which provide communication services to underserved areas. The bill also requires these issuers to make available certain financial information to investors, such as a summary of their consolidated balance sheet.

S.3738 - GLRI Act of 2024

Summary: This bill reauthorizes the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative.

S.3791 - America’s Conservation Enhancement Reauthorization Act of 2024

Summary: This bill reauthorizes several conservation programs such as:

• Chronic Wasting Disease Task Force

• Management of Invasive Species

• North American Wetlands Conservation Act

• National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Establishment Act

• Chesapeake Bay Program

• Chesapeake Bay Initiative Act of 1998

• Fish Habitat Conservation Projects under the America's Conservation Enhancement Act.

Additionally, this bill provides statutory authority for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to carry out a black vulture livestock protection program that allows one public entity per state to hold a statewide depredation permit to protect commercial agriculture livestock from black vulture predation. It also authorizes appropriations for the FWS to complete the National Fish Habitat Assessment and the associated database.

Finally, the bill extends through FY2030 a prohibition on the Environmental Protection Agency taking any action to regulate the lead content of sport fishing equipment or components under the Toxic Substances Control Act.

S.4477 - Second Chance Reauthorization Act of 2024

Summary: A summary could not be paraphrased or quoted. The bill text can be found here.

S.1868 - Secure Adjacent Federal Property Act of 2023

Summary: This bill requires an interagency study to help agencies produce a security assessment process for space adjacent to space to be leased for high-security federal activities.

Specifically, the bill directs the General Services Administration (GSA), in coordination with the Federal Protective Service, the Department of Homeland Security, the Office of Management and Budget, and any other relevant entities, to carry out a governmentwide study examining options to assist agencies to produce a process to assess the security of adjacent space before entering into a lease or novation agreement for high-security space.

The GSA, in coordination with such entities, shall (1) establish a working group to assist in carrying out the study, and (2) report to Congress.

S.3606 - National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Reauthorization Act of 2024

Summary: This bill reauthorizes the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program.

S.4212 - American Music Tourism Act of 2024

Summary: This bill requires the Assistant Secretary of Commerce to identify locations and events in the United States that are important to music tourism and facilitate and promote domestic travel and tourism to those locations and events.

This bill also requires the Assistant Secretary of Commerce to report on these actions to Congress.

With Congress out of session until after Thanksgiving, I figured this would be a good time to start the “Legislative Deep Dive” series to look at specific bills and what is in them. Let’s start with a hotly discussed topic in the news right now: Tariffs!

The media solely focuses on President-elect Trump and the impact that his second administration will have on trade relations. This comes as the President-Elect has announced that he will institute a 25% percent tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, and he will add an additional 10% tariff to all goods from China. But, does the President have unilateral power to do this?

Under current U.S. law, the President has the ability to modify tariffs in the interest of national security under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Trump had used this provision in his first term to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

Trump could also use provisions from the Trade Act of 1974 to enact retaliatory tariffs to any nation that is deemed to be implementing practices that are “unjustifiable and burdens or restricts United States commerce.”

However, the power of the purse (taxing and spending) vastly rests with Congress, and that power includes tariffs. Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution states:

“The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises… To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes”

The Constitution gives Congress the power to tax and spend, and a tariff is a form of tax. Additionally, the Constitution also explicitly names Congress as the chief decision maker in foreign commerce.

So, any long-lasting blanket tariff will have to go through Congress. The bill I will be covering closely resembles Trump’s trade agenda, and it could foreshadow Congress’s willingness to implement it.

Status of the Bill

H.R. 10127- Restoring Trade Fairness Act

Sponsor: Rep. John Moolenaar (R-MI2)

This bill was introduced on November 14th, 2024, and it was distributed to five different committees for consideration:

• Ways and Means

• Agriculture

• Armed Services

• Energy and Commerce

• Transportation and Infrastructure

Given that there is less than two months until the end of the 118th Congress, it is very unlikely this bill will make it through, and it will have to be reintroduced in the 119th Congress starting on January 3rd, 2025.

Let’s compare what’s in the bill to current U.S. law.

Bill Contents

The United States gives “normal trade status” to every country except Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and Cuba. The United States also gives concessions to members of the World Trade Organization, and on average, goods to these countries have tariffs of around 3.4 percent, which is the lowest in the world.

As for China, it was first given “normal trade status” in the Trade Act of 1974, the same act that Trump may use to enact retaliatory tariffs. This status was made permanent in 2001. Since it is a country with this status, China is entitled to low “Column 1” tariffs set in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States.

This bill, in its current state, revokes China’s “normal trade status”, and it mandates that China becomes entitled to “Column 2” or the higher set of tariff rates in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule. But, the bill doesn’t stop there.

The bill also mandates that any item with a tariff equivalent to less than 35% of its selling price (tariffs are measured in different ways depending on the item), it will automatically be bumped up to 35%. For certain goods listed in Section 10 of the bill, the tariff will be a minimum of 100%. All tariffs, regardless of how they are calculated, are to be adjusted for inflation.

All of these new tariffs are to be gradually implemented over 5 years after the enactment of this bill. Additionally, under current law, any shipments from China under $800 dollars are exempt from tariffs. This bill removes that exemption, and every shipment, regardless of size, will be subject to tariffs if it originates from China.

Finally, all U.S. importers will be required to submit documents to U.S. Customs and Border Protection verifying the “U.S. Value” of the goods being imported. The goods will be appraised at this verified value.

*Rule and procedural votes are not included unless it significantly alters legislative process

**Also does not include legislation that renames federal facilities or designation resolutions (such as renaming post offices or commemorating a historical event, among other similar things)

***Debate and arguments are included for all bills under regular order and any bill under suspension of the rules that had organized opposition that spoke against it on the floor during debate

Bills Passed Unanimously Under Suspension of the Rules

H.R 5536- Grant Transparency Act of 2023

Summary: This bill establishes transparency requirements for “Notices of Funding Opportunity” and notices must include

• a description of any rating system and evaluation and selection criteria to assess applicants for competitive grants

• a statement of whether the agency uses a weighted scoring method

• any other qualitative or quantitative merit-based approach the agency uses to evaluate an application for the grant

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H.R 825- Bolivar Act

Summary: This bill prohibits federal agencies from entering into any economic contract with any person or entity that engages in operations with the Maduro regime.

Exemptions can be granted for national security, disaster relief, humanitarian assistance, or life-saving measures. Exceptions can also be granted by the Department of State.

S.3126- Mark Our Place Act

Summary: This bill authorizes the Department of Veterans Affairs to furnish a headstone, marker, or medallion signifying the status of a deceased member of the Armed Forces as a Medal of Honor recipient regardless of when the member served

S.2181- Keeping Military Families Together Act of 2024

Summary: This bill permanently extends certain Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) burial benefits provided to spouses and dependent children of veterans or active duty servicemembers. Specifically, the bill permanently requires the VA to furnish, upon request, memorial headstones or markers for spouses or dependent children of veterans or servicemembers who were serving on active duty at the time of the spouse’s or child’s death. Additionally, the bill permanently authorizes burial in any open national cemetery under the control of the National Cemetery Administration for a spouse or dependent child of veterans or servicemembers who were serving on active duty at the time of the spouse’s or child’s death.

H.R. 7653- VERY Act of 2024

Summary: This bill revises terminology used under the Veteran Readiness and Employment program, specifically by replacing the use of employment handicap with employment barrier.

H.R.8234- To authorize the Secretary of State to designate additional persons eligible to serve as passport acceptance agents, and for other purposes.

Summary: This bill expands passport application processing services and directs changes by increasing:

• The number of companies certified to provide expedited processing

• The daily maximum number of passport applications that passport offices may accept from certified passport expeditors.

The bill also authorizes the State Department to designate notaries public, among others, as passport acceptance agents.

Additionally, the bill provides that passports issued 180 days or more after the bill's enactment shall expire on the passport holder's birthday.

Bills Passed via Roll Call Vote Under Suspension of the Rules (2/3 Needed)

H.R. 8371- Senator Elizabeth Dole 21st Century Veterans Healthcare and Benefits Improvement Act

Summary: No summary was provided or can be paraphrased but the bill text is found here.

Vote: Republicans: 190 Yeas, 9 Nays

Democrats: 199 Yeas

Total: 389 Yeas, 9 Nays

H.R.5658 - Vote by Mail Tracking Act

Summary: Declares any ballot containing a federal election unmailable unless it contains

• a tracking barcode

• meets requirements for ballot envelope design and machinable letters as defined by the United States Postal Service (USPS

• the official election mail logo as defined by the USPS

Vote: Republicans: 198 Yeas, 6 Nays

Democrats: 198 Yeas

Total: 396 Yeas, 6 Nays

H.R. 8368- Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts Authorization Act of 2024

Summary: This bill requires the Department of State to appoint a Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts to be responsible for:

• Relocating and resettling eligible Afghan allies,

• Facilitating the departure from Afghanistan of U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents who request assistance, and

• Ensuring integrated support for such efforts within the State Department and across the federal government.

Vote: Republicans: 145 Yeas, 62 Nays

Democrats: 189 Yeas, 1 Nay

Total: 334 Yeas, 63 Nays

H.R. 3012- North Korean Human Rights Reauthorization Act of 2023

Summary: This bill reauthorizes through FY2028 various activities to promote human rights in North Korea

• Providing grants to nonprofit organizations to promote human rights, democracy, rule of law, and the development of a market economy in North Korea

• Increasing the availability of sources of information inside North Korea that are not controlled by North Korea's government

• Supporting organizations that provide humanitarian assistance to North Koreans who are outside of North Korea without the permission of North Korea's government.

Vote: Republican: 159 Yeas, 37 Nays

Democrat: 176 Yeas

Total: 335 Yeas, 37 Nays

H.Res. 915- Urging the Government of Ukraine to review and modify its decision to suspend adoption by foreign nationals with a view to resuming such adoptions, particularly in cases where the mutual concerns of the Governments of Ukraine and of the United States can be substantially addressed.

Summary: This resolution:

• recommends Ukraine consider, as particularly urgent, cases where prospective U.S. parents have completed Ukraine's adoption process and received approval prior to the suspension of adoptions by non-Ukrainians on March 13, 2022; 

• recommends that, in cases where Ukrainian children had already been placed in hosting programs, prospective U.S. parents be allowed to initiate the adoption process; and 

• recommends that prospective U.S. parents be allowed to apply to receive, in a pre-adoptive placement, Ukrainian children that previously participated in hosting programs and that have an uncertain legal status regarding adoption.

Vote: Republicans: 190 Yeas, 4 Nays

Democrats: 182 Yeas, 2 Nays

Total: 372 Yeas, 6 Nays

Bills Passed Via Regular Order (Majority Needed)

H.R.1449- CLEAN Act

Summary: This bill requires that the Department of the Interior must increase the frequency of competitive geothermal lease sales in any state that has pending nominations of federal land to be leased for certain geothermal energy projects.

• Lease sales must now be held annually instead of bi-annually

• If a lease sale is canceled or delayed, then Interior must conduct a replacement sale during the same year

• In conducting a lease sale in a state, Interior must offer all nominated parcels eligible for geothermal development and utilization under the resource management plan in effect for the state. 

In addition, this bill requires Interior to notify an applicant whether or not its application for a geothermal drilling permit is complete within 30 days of receiving the application. If Interior determines that the application is complete, then it must issue a final decision on the application within 30 days of the date Interior sent the notification. 

Arguments: Proponents of the bill, mostly Republicans, argue that this bill will speed up the approval of leases for geothermal energy. In effect, more permits will help America utilize geothermal energy and become more energy independent.

Opponents of the bill, mostly Democrats, argue that the 30 day deadlines for both notifying applicants and approving applications is unreasonable and will cause a serious strain on the Department on the Interior’s staff and resources. Democrats are pushing to have an amendment to increase the initial completion timeline to 90 days.

Floor Amendments Offered:

Amendment #1: Extends the timeline for determining permit completeness to 90 days

Amendment Vote: Republicans: 209 Nays

Democrats: 200 Yeas, 1 Nay

Total: 200 Yeas, 210 Nays (Amendment Failed)

Amendment #2: Conditions the effective date on a certification that the Bureau of Land Management and other Federal permitting agencies have sufficient staff and funding to comply with the deadlines established by this Act

Amendment Vote: Republicans: 212 Nays

Democrats: 196 Yeas, 3 Nays

Total: 196 Yeas, 215 Nays (Amendment Failed)

Final Vote: Republicans: 213 Yeas

Democrats: 31 Yeas, 171 Nays

Total: 244 Yeas, 171 Nays

H.R. 9495- Stop Terror-Financing and Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act

***This bill previously failed under suspension of the rules on 11/12/24. While it received a majority, it did not receive the necessary 2/3 vote under suspension.

Summary: This bill:

• Postpones certain tax filing deadlines for U.S. nationals and their spouses who are unlawfully or wrongfully detained abroad or held hostage abroad.

• Allows for a refund and abatement of tax penalties and fines paid by detained individuals. 

• Terminates the tax-exempt status of terrorist supporting organizations. 

Arguments: The advocates of this bill, mostly Republicans with some Democrats, argue that in the wake of the war in Israel, hostages should not be expected to meet their tax obligations for the period in captivity, and the U.S needs to punish those that sympathize with terrorist organizations.

The opponents of the bill, mostly Democrats, argue that there is a similar bill in the Senate that is better. The current version being voted on includes a provision that allows the Secretary of State to remove tax-exempt status on “terrorist sympathizers”. In effect, this could allow the President to revoke tax-exempt status of any group he does not like. The House should just vote on the Senate bill.

Vote: Republicans: 204 Yeas, 1 Nay

Democrats: 15 Yeas, 184 Nays

Total: 219 Yeas, 185 Nays

U.S Senate

*cloture votes and procedural votes are not included unless they fail and significantly alter the legislative process.

**Also does not include legislation that renames federal facilities or designation resolutions (such as renaming post offices or commemorating a historical event, among other similar things)

***Does not include standard approval of military confirmation unless it is significant. For example, the Senate actually approves EVERY promotion even down to the private first class level.

Judicial Confirmations

PN1749- Nomination of Embry J. Kidd, of Florida, to be United States Circuit Judge for the Eleventh Circuit

Vote: Republicans: 45 Nays

Democrats: 46 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas, 1 Nay

Total: 49 Yeas, 45 Nays

PN1244- Nomination of Mustafa Taher Kasubhai, of Oregon, to be U.S. District Judge for the District of Oregon

Vote: Republicans: 44 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 4 Yeas

Total: 51 Yeas, 44 Nays

PN1253- On the Nomination of Sarah French Russell, of Connecticut, to be U.S. District Judge for the District of Connecticut

Vote: Republicans: 43 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas, 1 Nay

Total: 50 Yeas, 44 Nays

PN1573- On the Nomination of Rebecca L. Pennell, of Washington, to be United States District Judge for the Eastern District of Washington, vice Salvador Mendoza, Jr., elevated.

Vote: Republicans: 47 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas, 1 Nay

Total: 50 Yeas, 48 Nays

PN1402- On the Nomination of Amir H. Ali, of the District of Columbia, to be U.S. District Judge for the District of Columbia

Vote: Republicans: 48 Nays

Democrats: 47 Yeas

Independents: 3 Yeas, 1 Nay

Total: 50 Yeas, 49 Nays

PN2041- On the Nomination of Sharad Harshad Desai, of Arizona, to be United States District Judge for the District of Arizona

Vote: Republicans: 32 Yeas, 12 Nays

Democrats: 46 Yeas

Independents: 4 Yeas

Total: 82 Yeas, 12 Nays

Important Procedural Votes

The Senate rejected two different votes to proceed to consider two similar joint resolutions involving Israel.

Title of the two joint resolutions was the same: A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval of the proposed foreign military sale to the Government of Israel of certain defense articles and services.

Resolution Votes:

S.J.Res. 111- Republicans: 47 Nays

Democrats: 16 Yeas, 30 Nays, 1 Present

Independents: 2 Yeas, 2 Nays

Total: 18 Yeas, 79 Nays

S.J.Res. 113- Republicans: 47 Nays

Democrats: 17 Yeas, 29 Nays, 1 Present

Independents: 2 Yeas, 2 Nays

Total: 19 Yeas, 78 Nays

There was also another procedural vote to consider a resolution on Israel that was slightly different. This motion was also rejected.

S.J.Res. 115- A joint resolution providing for congressional disapproval of the proposed license amendment for the export of certain defense articles, defense services, and technical data to Israel.

Vote: Republicans: 47 Nays

Democrats: 15 Yeas, 31 Nays, 1 Present

Independents: 2 Yeas, 2 Nays

Total: 17 Yeas, 80 Nays

Finally for procedural votes, there was a vote to consider a resolution regarding Ukraine and was rejected

S.J.Res 117- A joint resolution relating to the disapproval of the Presidential report with respect to the indebtedness of the Government of Ukraine.

Vote: Republicans: 37 Yeas, 10 Nays

Democrats: 47 Nays

Independents: 4 Nays

Total: 37 Yeas, 61 Nays

Bills Passed via Unanimous Consent or Voice Vote

H.R. 807- Working Dog Commemorative Coin Act

Summary: This bill directs the Department of the Treasury to mint and issue 50,000 $5 gold coins, 500,000 $1 silver coins, and 750,000 half-dollar clad coins in commemoration of the service that working dogs provide to society.

H.R. 1505- No Stolen Trademarks Honored in America Act of 2023

Summary: This bill modifies the bar against U.S. courts enforcing or validating trademarks that were confiscated by the Cuban government.

The bill prohibits U.S. courts and executive branch agencies from enforcing or validating such confiscated trademarks if the mark has been used in connection with a confiscated business or asset. Currently, the prohibition is limited to U.S. courts and applies only if the confiscated trademark is being asserted in the United States by a Cuban national.

Under the bill, the prohibition shall not apply if the original trademark owner, or a successor, has expressly consented to the enforcement action.

The prohibition shall apply only if the entity asserting the trademark rights knew or should have known, when it acquired the rights, that the mark was the same or substantially similar to one connected to a confiscated business or asset.

H.R. 5490- Bolstering Ecosystems Against Coastal Harm Act

Summary: No summary has been provided or could be paraphrased from. The bill text is here

H.R. 6249- Think Differently About Emergencies Act

Summary: This bill requires the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to report to Congress regarding assistance and resources provided by FEMA to persons with intellectual and developmental disabilities and the families of such individuals who are impacted by major disasters. Report must be filed within 120 days of bill’s enactment.

H.R 2950- A bill to authorize the Secretary of the Interior, through the Coastal Program of the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, to work with willing partners and provide support to efforts to assess, protect, restore, and enhance important coastal landscapes that provide fish and wildlife habitat on which certain Federal trust species depend, and for other purposes

Summary: This bill provides statutory authority for the Coastal Program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). Under the voluntary program, the FWS works with partners to provide technical and financial assistance for habitat restoration projects, habitat protection projects, and related activities in priority coastal areas.

H.R.7213 - Autism CARES Act of 2024

Summary: This bill reauthorizes through FY2029

• The Developmental Disabilities Surveillance and Research Program that is administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

• Activities administered by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to support autism education, early detection, and intervention

• The Interagency Autism Coordinating Committee in HHS

It also updates and establishes various related reporting requirements, including by requiring the Government Accountability Office to report on how to increase the number of developmental-behavioral pediatricians through certain training programs.

S.385 - A bill to amend the Native American Tourism and Improving Visitor Experience Act to authorize grants to Indian tribes, tribal organizations, and Native Hawaiian organizations, and for other purposes.

Summary: This bill authorizes

• The Bureau of Indian Affairs to make these grants to and enter into agreements with Indian tribes and tribal organizations;

• The Office of Native Hawaiian Relations to make these grants to and enter into agreements with Native Hawaiian organizations;

• Other federal agencies to make these grants to and enter into agreements with tribes, tribal organizations, and Native Hawaiian organizations.

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S.759 - Beagle Brigade Act of 2023

Summary: This bill provides statutory authority for the National Detector Dog Training Center that is operated by the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of the Department of Agriculture. The center trains dogs to inspect passenger baggage, cargo, mailed packages, and vehicles to detect foreign pests and diseases that threaten domestic agriculture and natural resources.

The bill also requires APHIS to report to Congress on current and emerging threats to domestic agricultural and natural resources from foreign pests and diseases, and recommendations to improve the center's capabilities and procedures.

S.1322 - Unlocking Native Lands and Opportunities for Commerce and Key Economic Developments Act of 2023

Summary: This bill allows all Indian tribes and individual Indian owners of restricted land to lease their land for up to 99 years, subject to the approval of the Department of the Interior. The bill also provides tribes with the authority to approve certain types of rights-of-way without obtaining approval from Interior

S.2868 - A bill to accept the request to revoke the charter of incorporation of the Lower Sioux Indian Community in the State of Minnesota at the request of that Community, and for other purposes.

Summary: This bill accepts the request of the Lower Sioux Indian Community (a federally recognized Indian tribe in Minnesota) to revoke the community's charter of incorporation.  

S.4708 - Strengthening Child Exploitation Enforcement Act

Summary: No summary was provided or could be paraphrased from. The bill text could be found here.

But, some Democrats think Kamala is going to win Iowa because of one Ann Selzer poll. They should also seek medical attention.

Tomorrow, America will see the continuation of a political realignment that started in 2016, accelerated in 2020, and showed in 2022.

• Rural America will continue to reject the Democratic party and embrace Trump at record levels. The question is if the margin is the same as 2020, and if they keep turnout levels high.

• Trump will gain ground in certain cities across the country. Cities like Philadelphia, Miami, and New York City will be more pro-trump than 4 years ago. New York (not enough to win) and Florida will swing hard to the right, but they are electorally insignificant. This is why Trump will gain ground in the popular vote, but it won’t necessarily translate to gains in the electoral college.

• So, if Trump does better in certain cities, and he does well in small towns, he should win in a blowout right? No. Suburban America will continue their drastic shift to the Democrats. Women, especially young college educated women are pissed, and they will turnout in record numbers for Kamala Harris.

The final question: Will Trump offset the loss with women by doing better with men and minority voters? If so, then he wins a second term.

I think that happens.

Overall Prediction

National Environment: Harris +2.2

So, I think Harris will get more votes than Trump. This is not a surprise. Clinton got more votes than Trump, and we all know she wasn’t President.

This election will come down to the swing states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Lets talk about them.

Arizona and Georgia (11 and 16 Electoral Votes)

These two states will determine if Harris is having a better night than expected. Trump won both of these states relatively easily in 2016, but Biden picked them off in 2020. Biden won Arizona by 0.3% and Georgia by 0.2%. Any slight national swing towards Trump should put these two states back into this column. Additionally, Latino and Black voters are likely to trend to the Republicans in this election. Because of this, Trump should take these two states back. If Harris wins these, she’s easily the President of the United States.

Final Prediction: Arizona and Georgia: Trump +2

North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes)

Trump won this state twice. If there is one state that Harris could pick off from Trump, its North Carolina. Biden was the favorite in North Carolina, along with his Senate counterpart, Cal Cunningham. Cunningham got caught with his pants down a few weeks before the election, and Trump unexpectedly beat Biden by 1.3%. Again, while North Carolina may be trending left in the long run, Trump should hold on to it, I had Biden winning North Carolina last time, and I’m not falling for that trap again.

Final Prediction: Trump + 2.5

Nevada (6 Electoral Votes)

If there is one state that Trump can win that he didn’t win in either of the last two elections, it’s Nevada.

Believe it or not, Trump was actually favored in Nevada in 2016, but he lost by over 2%. He lost by a similar margin in 2020.

However, due to rightward trends among Hispanic voters, Trump is in peak shape to pick off Nevada. Republicans have also dominated early voting in Nevada up to this point.

Earlier today, Nevada oracle Jon Ralston, who is pretty much a political dynasty at predicting elections, predicted that Harris would win by 0.3%. Well, all dynasties end at some point!

Final Prediction: Trump +1

Michigan (15 Electoral Votes)

Michigan is the toughest swing state for Republicans to win. While Trump won Michigan by 0.2% in 2016, he lost Michigan by 2.8% in 2020.

Additionally, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is in full force for Harris in Detroit and its suburbs. I think he makes it closer, but Detroit is too big for Trump to take it back.

Final Prediction: Harris +2

Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes)

My home state. It’s also the state that pundits say will decide the election. I want that to be true, but I don’t think it is.

Trump won Pennsylvania by 0.7% in 2016, and he lost it by 1.2% in 2020.

Interesting note: Trump actually improved in Philadelphia in 2020, and he also dominated rural counties even more so than 2016. So how did he lose? Well, he lost Erie and Northampton county which are the two bellwether counties in Pennsylvania. He also lost massive amounts of votes among suburban voters in Chester, Montgomery, and Delaware counties. Romney won Chester County in 2012, Trump lost it by 9% in 2016, and Trump lost it by 17% in 2020.

Trump will once again improve in Philadelphia this year. Trump will hold his margins in rural PA, but I’m not sure he can run those counties up by bigger margins than he did. Finally, suburban voters will continue to revolt against Trump. While PA will be closer, I think Harris is the slight favorite.

Final Prediction: Harris +0.5

Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)

So, Wisconsin is going to decide this election. Trump won Wisconsin by 0.8% in 2016, and he lost Wisconsin by 0.6% in 2020.

Funny enough, Wisconsin wasn’t supposed to be close in 2020. An ABC poll conducted in October of 2020 showed Biden leading Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin. LOL.

But, that poll shows a massive problem with polling in Wisconsin, and pollsters cannot reliably reach white working class voters in that state. While much of that seems to have been corrected in polls, I think there is still enough of a chance of a polling miss in Wisconsin to give Trump the victory in Wisconsin.

Final Prediction: Trump + 0.5

Other Semi-Swing States

Florida: Trump +8

Virginia: Harris +6

Texas: Trump +8

New York (not a swing state): Harris +16

New Mexico: Harris +8

Final Map

Trump wins 278-260

1. Speaker Mike Johnson is vastly underperforming compared to Kevin McCarthy in terms of fundraising.

2. Control of the U.S House will largely be decided by races in three states: California, New York, and Pennsylvania. Honestly, good for New York and California whose votes usually never matter. Here in PA, we are the most spoiled voters of all time, and we are used to the fate of the country being in our hands.

3. In 2016 and 2020, House Republicans largely outperformed Trump. There is some evidence that Senate Republicans are starting to consolidate support and catch up to Trump in polling. Whether that trickles down to House Republicans is a mystery that will be revealed at some point between Tuesday and January 3rd.

There is no logical way that I can cover all 435 House Races. The best way to do this is to talk races that I think will flip from one party to another, and I will talk about true 50-50 districts regardless of the result. As of Nov. 1st, Cook Political Report has 22 races rated as pure “tossup”. I can’t see any non-tossup races where I disagree with Cook. If you want my opinion on other “lean races”, simply look at Cook’s ratings here.

Note: I plan to discuss NE-02 despite its “lean Democratic rating”.

Republican to Democratic Flips:

PA-10: Incumbent Republican Scott Perry v. Democrat Janelle Stelson

This race is surprising me. Perry won by almost 8 points in 2022. In 2022, Republicans struggled statewide in Pennsylvania and there is a question of how much of that trickled down to House Republicans. If Doug Mastriano really did pull House Republicans down in Pennsylvania, then Scott Perry is fine.

Call me skeptical. Doug was a problem (F tier candidate) and destroyed us in the State House, but I don’t think U.S Representatives were because of Mastriano.

In PA-10’s current form, Trump beat Clinton by 10 points. In 2020, Trump only beat Biden by 4. Pennsylvania only swung about 2 points as a whole, and it indicates that PA-10 is trending left more so than the rest of the state.

But also, Scott Perry has his own personal problems that will bring him down. First off, whoever advised Perry that it was okay to be in a swing district and ALSO become chair of the Freedom Caucus should never work in politics ever again. Secondly, Perry doubled down on leading the objection to Pennsylvania's electoral votes in 2020. These are just things you cannot do as a representative of suburban Pennsylvania.

Perry has gotten away with it. But, he likely won’t this time. Stelson has almost outspent him by $1 million dollars, and PA-10 continues to change as Harrisburg grown. Stelson is also a well-known newscaster, and they tend to overperform due to being on TV.

Final Prediction: Stelson +1.5 (Democratic Gain)

NE-02: Incumbent Republican Don Bacon v. Democrat Tony Vargas

Good ole Don Bacon. He’s done everything right in a swing district. He’s one of the most bipartisan members of the House. He voted against Jim Jordan because he knew that the vote would be the end of his career.

He should win, but Omaha hates Trump. He will likely lose NE-02 by almost 10 points. In fact, this district, due to Nebraska’s split electoral vote law, could give Harris the deciding vote in a very possible 270-268 scenario.

This district is also the most polled congressional district in the country, and Bacon hasn’t led a poll since July.

Like the bacon that I will be eating on Wednesday while morning watching 7 different news channels and results, Don is cooked.

Final Prediction: Vargas+3.5 (Democratic Gain)

OR-05: Incumbent Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer v. Democrat Janelle Bynum

2022 was a good year for Oregon Republicans. They were competitive in the Gubernatorial Election, and they flipped Oregon’s 5th district. They also contested Oregon 6 and were very confidant in their ability to flip it. They fell short by 3 points.

This year, there is not a competitive statewide election in Oregon, and Republicans aren’t even contesting OR-06. Chavez-DeRemer won by 2 points in 2022. I sense that Oregon will trend left much more than that, and I have doubts about her ability to fight off the tailwinds.

Final Prediction: Bynum +3 (Democratic Gain)

NY-19: Incumbent Republican Mark Molinaro v. Democrat Josh Riley

Outside of Mike Lawler, freshman New York Republicans are cooked.

Lee Zeldin was the greatest electoral overperformer in a generation, and his coattails led a Republican wave that led to House Republicans picking up 5 seats. George Santos blew up the one district, and Desposito and Williams are “lean D” races. Lawler is a “lean R” race which means Molinaro is the only tossup race in New York.

Josh Riley is outspending Molinaro by $3 million, and the environment in New York will be much bluer in 2024 than 2022. While New York will trend red at the presidential level in 2024 compared to 2020, it will not be enough to save Molinaro.

Final Prediction: Riley +3 (Democratic Gain)

Iowa Races

IA-01: Incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks v. Christina Bohannan

and

IA-03: Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn v. Lanon Baccam

So, Iowa will be an interesting state to watch. While Ann Selzer was probably high on cocaine while doing her Harris +3 poll, there is a possibility that Republicans have somewhat of an underwhelming night in Iowa. Zach Nunn is in the bluest district in Iowa, and he won by less than a point in 2022.

That Selzer poll had some apocalyptic numbers for both Nunn and Miller-Meeks in Iowa. While that poll is obviously and outlier by 10 points, this is not the first sign of trouble for Iowa Republicans. Earlier this year, Cook stated that internal polls showed Nunn struggling and Miller Meeks facing personal favorability issues in her district.

Miller-Meeks is also being outspent by $1.3 million as an incumbent in a district that shouldn’t be that close given that she won by over 6 points in 2022. There is a real possibility of an upset here on Tuesday. But, its probably not enough to beat her.

Final Prediction: Miller-Meeks + 0.5 (IA-01) and Baccam (IA-03) +2.5 (Republican hold and Democratic Gain)

CA-13: Incumbent Republican John Duarte v. Democrat Adam Gray

A rematch from 2022.

Duarte is being outspent by $1.3 million (just like Miller-Meeks above) and only won by 0.4% two years ago. This is also a district that voted for Biden by 12 points. I highly doubt that Duarte, unlike his California counterparts, will be able to get enough split ticket voters to win a second term.

Final Prediction: Gray +3 (Democratic Gain)

I predict, if you include the new Alabama seat, that the Democrats will flip 10 seats from the Republicans. This means that Republicans will need to flip 6 from the Democrats to keep the majority.

Democratic to Republican Flips:

MI-07: Republican Tom Barrett v. Democrat Curtis Hertel

There is not much to say on this one. Slotkin was the only person keeping this seat blue. Barrett has won every public poll despite being outspent, and this district voted for Biden by less than a point. I think this district flips, and Barrett will outperform Trump due to high name ID in the district.

Final Prediction: Barrett +3 (Republican Gain)

WA-03: Incumbent Democrat Marie Glusenkemp Perez v. Republican Joe Kent

Another rematch from 2022. This seat was held by Jaime Herrera Buetler, one of the Republicans who impeached Trump, and she lost the primary to Joe Kent.

Joe Kent ran a very right wing campaign in 2022, and he rivaled J.R Majewski from Ohio as the worst candidate in the cycle. Trump only won this district by 4 points in 2020, but he will likely do a little bit better. Trumps coattails will be enough to bring Kent across the finish line.

Final Prediction: Kent +2 (Republican gain)

NM-02: Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez v. Republican Yvette Herrell

Yet, another rematch from 2022. Yvette Herrell won a surprise victory in 2020, but lost a close race to Gabe Vasquez in 2022.

There are signs New Mexico could be a lot closer in this election than 2020, and the last time Trump was on the ballot, Herrell prevailed. I think she pulls it off again.

Final Prediction: Herrell +2

PA-08: Incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright v. Rob Bresnahan

I’m back wondering about the effect Doug Mastriano had on the 2022 elections. This district voted for Trump by 3 points in 2020, and will likely shift a little bit right in 2024. This district likely had a blue mirage in 2020 as it was the former home of Joe Biden which led Biden to coin himself “the boy from Scranton”.

Matt Cartwright has been a target for years as the only PA Democrat in a district carried by Trump. I think with Trump on the ballot, Cartwright goes down.

Final Prediction: Bresnahan +1 (Republican gain)

Notable Holds

ME-02: Incumbent Democrat Jared Golden v. Republican Austin Theriault

This district is like a carrot on a stick for Republicans. Trump will likely win this district by almost 10 points this year.

But, Jared Golden has defied the odds before, and I don’t see him losing this time. Maine has Ranked Choice Voting, and Golden has won easily in the second round. It also doesn’t hurt that he runs ads with him eating a lobster and talking about how he was the only Democrat to “bust Biden’s spending agenda”.

Final Prediction: Golden +6 in the second round (Democratic Hold)

AK-AL: Incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola v. Republican Nick Begich

If it wasn’t for Sarah Palin, Nick Begich would be representing Alaska in the United States Congress. I have no idea why Alaska Republicans are obsessed with promoting the worst vice presidential nominee in modern history, and one of the most corrupt governors in Alaska’s history.

But, it’s probably too late for Begich. Peltola has established her brand as a bipartisan Democrat in a state that is potentially trending left in the long run. She is also outspending Begich 10 to 1. Alaska also had Ranked Choice Voting, and this will help Peltola.

Final Prediction: Peltola +4 in the second round (Democratic hold)

CA-27: Incumbent Republican Mike Garcia v. Democrat George Whitesides

Mike Garcia won by 6.5 points in 2022. He ran against Christy Smith three times, so this is his first race against another Democrat.

Biden won this district by almost 13 points in 2020, but Garcia was on the ballot then, and he still won. I don’t see Democrats taking out Garcia this year.

Final Prediction: Garcia +4 (Republican hold)

Final U.S House Prediction

Taking into account redistricting in Louisiana, Alabama, and North Carolina: Democrats gain two seats in the Deep South while Republicans gain two seats in North Carolina. That’s a wash

The final margin is 218 Republicans to 217 Democrats. Republicans will have a one seat majority come January 3rd. God help us.

Note: The map colors do not reflect projected margin, they reflect flipped seats.

1. I correctly predicted the winner of the 2016 and 2020 U.S Presidential Elections. More on that when I make my predictions for Trump v. Harris in another article.

2. I was one of the only people that predicted, at least compared to mainstream projections, that Republicans would probably gain seats in the U.S House in 2020.

Battle for the U.S Senate Majority

Two things need to be established about the U.S Senate:

1. The Republicans are the clear favorite (95%+) to control the Senate. West Virginia is essentially an uncontested Republican gain and that seat alone gets them to a 50-50 Senate. Even in the unlikely event that West Virginia is the only Republican gain of the night, Republicans have a coin flips chance of controlling the Senate with J.D Vance breaking the tie.

2. Steve Daines is a genius. His leadership at the NRSC has put multiple senate races into play that shouldn’t even be close. I’m very disappointed that he isn’t running for majority leader. Perhaps he will stay chair of the NRSC in the long-term.

Let’s take a look at some individual races. I will not be covering West Virginia because everybody knows its an automatic Republican gain.

Montana: Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester v. Republican Tim Sheehy

Republicans dodged a bullet in Montana. At one time, I was convinced that Matt Rosendale would win the nomination, and Tester would cruise to victory. That didn’t happen.

Montana is a growing state, and it has always been very socially liberal despite its overall Republican lean at the Presidential level. This has allowed Democrats to do very well in down ballot races even in the Trump Era. However, Trump has never been on the ballot at the same time as Jon Tester.

The Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average currently has Sheehy leading Tester by 5 points, and Tester hasn’t led in the average since March.

Final Prediction: Sheehy +6.5 (Republican Gain)

Ohio: Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown v. Republican Bernie Moreno

Sherrod Brown, like Tester and the soon to be talked about Bob Casey, came into the Senate in 2007 at the dawn of massive anti-bush/anti-Iraq war sentiment that would carry Obama to a landside victory less than two years later. Brown beat the current (and very popular) Governor of Ohio Mike Dewine. The 2006 political environment was so bad for Republicans in 2006 that Charles Gibson, the host of ABC Election Night 2006, put it very simply: “To be a Republican in Ohio is to be in trouble.”

Safe to say, lots has changed since 2006.

Fundamentally, Sherrod Brown should be cooked. Trump will probably win Ohio by around ten points. Right now, the DDHQ polling average has Trump only winning Ohio by six points.

Folks, if Trump only wins Ohio by six points, Harris is President of the United States. While Harris winning the election is certainly possible, a six point difference in Ohio is blue wave territory in the electoral college. That’s probably not happening.

As for the DDHQ polling average for the Senate race in Ohio, Moreno leads Brown by less than a point. To be fair, the quality of polling this year in Ohio is atrocious. I would argue the last high quality poll to be done there was about a month ago.

Despite the tailwinds, Brown has outspent Moreno 4 to 1. Now, some of this gap is probably due to outside PACs doing more heavy lifting for the Moreno campaign. But, even with that money, Moreno is getting destroyed on the airwaves.

However, I firmly believe Republicans are, once again, being underestimated in Ohio. Given the virtual tie in polling, he is probably going to be dragged across the finish line by Trump.

Final Prediction: Moreno +1 (Republican gain)

Pennsylvania: Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey v. Republican Dave McCormick

Bob Casey, like the two previous Democrats discussed, rode the 2006 blue wave into the Senate. Casey absolutely manhandled incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum.

Somehow Santorum’s career didn’t end there, and he had above an non-zero chance of becoming President in 2012.

Anyway, this race shouldn’t be close. Bob Casey, whose father had the same name, was a very popular governor in Pennsylvania. Casey has never had a close election in the Senate despite Pennsylvania being the ultimate swing state.

But, Dave McCormick has ran a fantastic campaign. He’s being outspent, but by less than a 2 to 1 ratio (which is good for the Trump era). Some of this gap has been closed via PAC money, and McCormick has put Casey on the ropes by connecting him to Biden’s economic and immigration policy.

Casey responded by saying he supports President Trump’s trade polices. What a tactic.

After what happened with McCormick in 2022, Pennsylvania doesn’t deserve him. Trump’s horrible endorsement of Mehmet Oz and the 900 vote recount between McCormick and Oz would have made almost anybody else bitter enough to never run again. However, McCormick came back, won the nomination, and has the best shot of taking out Casey as any Republican has had or ever will have.

It’s not enough though. Casey’s name and Pennsylvania’s slight Democratic tilt should give Casey enough of an edge to win a 4th term.

Final Prediction: Casey+3 (Democratic hold)

Wisconsin: Incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin v. Republican Eric Hovde

In terms of the Senate races this year, this race is the tossups of all tossups. Wisconsin is a 50-50 state in both the Presidential and Senate race.

Like Casey, Baldwin is concerned about Trump turning out working class voters, and she is also running ads saying she worked with Trump to bring back manufacturing jobs.

Eric Hovde has also ran a great campaign. He’s clawed away at the gap between his and Baldwin’s fundraising numbers. Additionally, a recent CNN poll has indicated that Hovde may outperform Trump in Wisconsin due to increased support among the suburban voters who have all but left Trump in the dust.

While I think Hovde outperforms Trump, it won’t be by more than 1-2 points. But, I think that difference is enough to make Eric Hovde the next United States Senator from Wisconsin.

Final Prediction: Hovde +1 (Republican gain)

Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada:

There is a lot of Republican hopium about these three races. To be fair, Michigan is not like the others. Mike Rogers could still win. But there’s no way Rogers wins unless Donald Trump wins Michigan (Spoiler: I don’t have Trump winning Michigan). I also think Trump has to win Michigan by at least 2.5 to pull Rogers over the finish line. Call me Skeptical.

Sam Brown in an American hero. But, he’s no match for Jacky Rosen in Nevada. Over half of Nevada has already voted. Any late surge, especially if its a mirage, will have much less effect in Nevada than it would in other states.

Finally, Kari Lake is the worst Republican Senate candidate in the country. To be honest, Republicans probably don’t even care if she loses. Even Trump has had enough of her.

Final Predictions: All Democratic Holds

MI: Slotkin +4

NV: Rosen +6

AZ: Gallego+7

Overall Prediction: Republicans win 53 Senate Seats and win back the Majority in the U.S Senate

Predictit is the most well-known political betting site in the United States. Other sites exist, but political betting isn’t as widely available or accepted as it is in Europe. Recently, Predictit was issued a letter ordering it to shutdown; however, after recent victories in court, Predictit has begun adding new markets to bet on (yay!).

Predictit’s operation is fairly simple. Every market has a contract that adds up to one dollar. If two candidates have an equal chance of winning, they would each be priced at 50 cents per share (or contract). The market fluctuates based on how the public views a certain candidate’s chance of winning the election. For example, if a candidate is priced at 70 cents, that means they have about an 70% chance of winning the election.

What markets look good?

For 2023, there is only one market that catches my eye. Recently, Predictit added the 2023 Kentucky Gubernatorial Election. The election is between incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear and his Republican challenger Daniel Cameron.

Typical political wisdom would entice many to believe that Republican Daniel Cameron would be the favorite to defeat Gov. Beshear. After all, it is an off-year election with a Democrat in the White House. Not to mention, Kentucky is a ruby red state, and Joe Biden’s approval rating is horrid.

However, all signs are pointing to an easy Beshear win. Not one public poll has shown Daniel Cameron in the lead, and Emerson recently released a poll showing Beshear with a WHOPPING 16 point lead. Obviously, polls can be wrong, but all signs are pointing to Gov. Beshear easily winning a second term.

Right now, Gov. Beshear is selling for 81 cents per share. The only reason that it is so low is because political betting tends to make people biased with their bets. Many Republicans believed they could win this race going in. They aren’t ready to face the truth yet.

I bought approximately 195 shares for an average of 70 cents per share. I would advise investing some into this market if you are looking for both a safe bet and a sizeable return. Think about it: For every 80 dollars that you invest, you get 100 come election day.

My advice: Buy as many shares of Beshear as you can. You won’t regret it.

Want Actual Free Money?

Donate to Doug Burgham’s presidential campaign. Every person that donates at least $1 will receive a $20 gift card in return.

Wait a minute. Matt, why the f**k is he doing this?

Well, because he doesn’t care about how much money his campaign raises. He cares more about how many people donate. He needs so many donations to qualify for the next Republican debate on November 8th.

Hello! My name is Matthew Kearney. I am a 21 year old college student. I am in my junior year of studying finance and accounting at Saint Francis University. I am also a member of the Penn Cambria School District Board of Education. In December of 2021, I became the second youngest elected office holder in Pennsylvania (damn you Bucci, although he resigned to move for work, and I am now the youngest). Since then, I have been going to school and trying to better my community in any way that I can.

1. Why this, why now?

The purpose of creating this page is twofold:

1. Politics is the most interesting topic to talk about. If you live in the United States, our state of politics in unprecedented. There’s always a story to tell about the U.S’s governmental affairs. Outside of covering governmental affairs, the world of electoral politics (and betting markets) is equally exciting to talk about.

2. Everybody that knows me describes me by one thing: my political involvement. I was first elected to public office when I was 18 years old (I’m currently 21). Since December of 2021, I have been a member of the Penn Cambria School District Board of Education. Since my election, I have also become relatively involved with PA GOP Politics. So far, I have only done volunteer work at this level. I have chosen to get a degree in Accounting before fully entering the world of politics.

2. What I will be posting?

Simply, I will mostly be writing about the hottest political topics around the U.S. I also live in Pennsylvania, and our politics can get quite interesting sometimes, even to the outside viewer. These articles are meant to to be entertaining, and maybe even humorous, but they will also cover general political topics.

Also, I will be releasing articles regarding Penn Cambria and my role on that board. I will likely release monthly updates covering board actions. These posts will be purely informational, or will be a purely personal opinion piece on Penn Cambria issues.

Here is a rule of thumb:

If you see an article with “Penn Cambria” in it, the audience is most likely my local community. I am trying to inform them of general board action, or I am explaining why I voted a certain way.

If it doesn’t mention Penn Cambria, its most likely intended towards the general public.