In this week’s episode of THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic) looks back at the Bears big win in Seattle on Monday Night Football, as the betting results mirrored Thursday Night Football between the Panthers and Packers, as part of more “rights” than “wrongs” in Week 8 of the NFL via the “Sunday Best” and “Player Prop Express.”

The calendar has flipped to November, which means two things for the best month in College Football:

1. College Football Playoff futures adds on Tuesday, November 3; FREE to read for Yahoo! Sports:

   CFP FUTURE ADDS (Y!)

2. A podcast review of THE WINDOW’s College Football season win totals and conference futures from August:

SEC PREVIEW

BIG TEN PREVIEW (Y!)

ACC PREVIEW

BIG 12 PREVIEW

GROUP-OF-SIX PREVIEW

Matt breaks down what’s already been decided in season-long win totals (5-2), why we might get a sweep in the SEC, and ACC, while hoping to avoid “getting” swept in the Big 12, and what’s needed for conference championship futures to be alive come Championship Weekend in the Big Ten, Big 12, Conference USA, American, and MAC.

Plus, the Heisman Report sets up the importance of Miami-Notre Dame (a game we bet in the summer lookahead market), and the one-game fork in the road for new favorite Darian Mensah, Kadarius Toney, CJ Carr, and Jeremiah Smith. Followed by a handful of weeknight games to bet in College Football.

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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THE WINDOW is providing free subscribers sports betting content thanks to yahoo! sports this football season.

The “12s” are back in primetime, after the Seahawks defense, and their fans, lit up the night last Sunday in a thorough defeat of the Chiefs.

That was about a week-and-a-half after the market was selling Seattle after a loss at Denver.

As always, the answer to where a team lies is somewhere in-between that bottom of the market, and the top — where a Super Bowl winner should be.

Free, for Yahoo! Sports, I write about where the betting market is currently rating the Seahawks at the moment, how the Bears — with Caleb Williams — are a tricky evaluation with regards to their ceiling, having covered all three games he’s started and finished this season:

MNF BETTING PREVIEW: BEARS-SEAHAWKS

Along with the side, we’ve got the usual trio of player props, and the best value in the Anytime Touchdown market (and why) — both of which include an under-the-radar receiving option who should see more duty than usual for one side.

What’s THE WINDOW?

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Are we back!?

A 7-3 Sunday for the “Player Prop Express” is going to win us a fake fantasy matchup more often than not, and we added another 2.5 units with an Omar Cooper Jr. receptions.

We’re still waiting on the perfect week — winning the 10 player props, the ladder, and cashing on the RATS.

Of course, we wouldn’t care about any of that if we somehow ran into the mega-longshot SGP+ (hitting two of four legs last Sunday).

How did our fake fantasy team do last week?

7-3

Yeah, I think we’re back.

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each player to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.

QB1: Jared Goff — Under 260.5 passing yards (-111, DraftKings)

• Facing the Vikings’ No. 1-ranked defense

  • Averaged 7.3 yards per attempt last year

  • Would need 36 attempts to get over at that clip

• Vikings even better than last season

  • 2025 — Dropback EPA allowed: 0.003, Success Rate allowed: 39.3%

  • 2026 — Dropback EPA allowed: -0.034, Success Rate allowed: 34.6%

QB2: Michael Penix Jr. — Under 229.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Facing second-best pass defense in the NFL

• Penix: 2-4 to the Over

• First outdoor game since season-debut at Green Bay in September

• Forecast of heavy rain and gusty winds for Sunday afternoon in Tampa

RB1: Ashton Jeanty — Under 13.5 rushing attempts (+100, Bet365)

• After 23-carry/102-yard Week 1, Jeanty’s carries have dropped in every game since

  • Averaging 2.7 yards per carry

• Mike Washington Jr.’s led the Raiders in rushing in the last two games

  • Averaging 4.9 yards per carry this season

• Jeanty has become more of a weapon in the passing game

• Short underdogs, aren’t expected to be in position to go run-heavy in the fourth quarter

RB2: Tony Pollard — Under 65.5 rushing yards (-114, DraftKings)

• Bengals allow third-lowest Success Rate against the rush (30.6%)

• Pollard over this total in three games:

  • Vs. Giants (close loss)

  • @ Titans (win)

  • Vs. Browns (close loss)

• Pollard under this total in three games, all trailing-state losses

  • Titans are double-digit underdogs

WR1: Ryan Flournoy — Over 36.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

• Flournoy continued trend of around 80% snaps played on Monday

• Third straight game with 40+ receiving yards

• Cardinals are 28th in opponent’s dropback EPA/Play

• Short week for Cowboys, George Pickens questionable

WR2: Antonio Williams — Over 34.5 receiving yards (-115, Bet365)

• After Terry McLaurin was hurt in Week 6 game at San Francisco, Williams caught three passes for 50 yards

• With either McLaurin (Week 4 and 6) or Stefon Diggs out, Williams snaps went to 60+%, compared to 30+% in the his first three games

• Williams early numbers tempered by playing without Jayden Daniels (and in the rain in Week 5)

• Eagles defense struggling to stop the pass since Week 3 (bottom-5 metrics)

WR3: Germie Bernard — Longest reception, Under 19.5 yards (-120, Bet365)

• Bernard caught a 20-yard pass in Week 7, but he broke a bunch of tackles to take a short catch that far

• That was just Bernard’s second reception of 20+ yards all season

• With Roman Wilson and Michael Pittman out, the assumption is that Bernard fills that role as a deep target, but he’s still mainly used underneath

• Return of Rico Dowdle has provided another checkdown option for Aaron Rodgers

TE: Tyler Warren — Over 4.5 receptions (+102, FanDuel)

• Warren returns from injury to a team desperate for offensive weapons

• Caught 6, 9, 5, and 7 passes in four games before missing time

• Fill-in tight ends have been unproductive in his absence

• Rainy weather in Jacksonville sets up for short passing game, 10-point underdogs likely pass-heavy in the second half

FLEX: Kenneth Walker — Under 89.5 rushing yards (-114, DraftKings)

• Walker embarrassed the Broncos in Week 1, rushing for 173 yards on 23 carries

• Since then, Denver is seventh in Success Rate allowed against the rush

• Won fading Walker’s yards last week, citing the defensive Success Rate of Chiefs’ opponents on rushing plays:

  • Broncos — 7th (Couldn’t tackle in Week 1)

  • Colts — 30th

  • Dolphins — 25th

  • Raiders — 16th

  • Chargers — 18th

SUPER-FLEX: Malik Willis — Under 27.5 pass attempts (-110, Bet365)

• Rainy conditions in Miami, setting up for a ground-heavy game plan

• Patriots are 19th in rushing Success Rate allowed

  • Jets are 20th

  • Dolphins had 41 carries and just 21 pass attempts last week

• Willis has gone over this total just once all season

  • Versus Chiefs, when Ollie Gordon was ineffective after D’Von Achane got injured

  • In three games since, Gordon — with a ground attack tailored more his skillset — has run for 291 yards on 52 carries

• Total of 27.5 expects Dolphins to trail, but wet conditions should help keep this close

BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Brenton Strange (+185)

• Justin Jefferson (+165)

• Omar Cooper Jr. (+310)

• Ladd McConkey (+280)

• JK Dobbins (+205)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from DraftKings

THE 🪜LADDER MATCH:

NEW feature, where we take a unit and split it up the ladder on a player prop!

Ty Johnson (🦬): Receiving yards (DraftKings)

• 0.5 units: 20+ receiving yards (+138)

• 0.3 units: 30+ receiving yards (+291)

• 0.2 units: 40+ receiving yards (+567)

• 0.1 units: 50+ receiving yards (+1040)

Week 8 SGP+:

Michael Wilson: 7+ receptions (+350)
Chris Rodriguez: 50+ rushing yards (+275) 
Omar Cooper Jr.: 70+ receiving yards (+300)
Justin Herbert: 250+ passing yards (+300)

~250-1 at Bet365 

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In the NFL, one bad game can throw a wrench into the next week, as we saw with the Cardinals improbable upset of the Rams in Week 6.

After an early-season upset of the Chargers (still waiting on their first win of the season into November), Arizona had been overrated until they went back to L.A., beating the Rams without scoring a touchdown.

The timing was unfortunate, because of who each team played in Week 7.

The Cardinals returned home to face the Broncos — whose offense makes it feel like they could lose to anybody at any time, and the points were too tough to pass up, not expecting Bo Nix and R.J. Harvey to have a red carpet rolled out for them to the end zone.

The Rams went on the road to take on the Raiders — whose close-but-not-quite home results against the Chiefs and Bills made it feel like they could breakthrough against the wounded Rams, and the points were too tough to pass up.

Had the schedule shook out in a different way, or the Rams hadn’t given away their game with the Cardinals, maybe fading the Broncos and backing the Raiders don’t look as appetizing, and Week 7 results flip from 3-5-1 ATS to the reverse.

For Week 8, this week’s challenge is to find the teams who’s recent run of luck in their slate have created an opportunity the market’s not accounting for.

Check out last week’s “Sunday Best” :

NFL WEEK 7 BEST BETS

Ravens @ Bills (-3, 54.5)

Excerpt from THE WINDOW’s (free) submission to Yahoo! Sports’ best bets of the week:

Ray Lewis isn’t walking through that door. In fact, a much younger, more effective version of Roquan Smith isn’t either, as he’s the 34th-ranked linebacker by PFF grade this season, which is still a higher grade than either Ravens’ cornerback.

Remove garbage time, fourth downs, and turnovers, getting to the root of a team’s defensive effectiveness, Baltimore is 14th in EPA/Play and 19th in Success Rate allowed. That’s actually flattering, because when you factor in that the Ravens don’t turn opponents over (just three interceptions and three fumble recoveries), the numbers get worse.

The Bills defense isn’t any good at all, but that hasn’t been an issue for a Josh Allen-led offense that has outscored its opponents in an absurd four wins when they’ve allowed 30+ points.

Coming off a bye, there’s been two weeks for development in this transitional season for Buffalo’s defense under Jim Leonhard, giving more time for the incremental improvement of a young unit.

Lamar Jackson is expected to return, and it’s possible that -2.5 shows up once that’s official, but if he isn’t able to go, this line should be north of a touchdown. Given the nature of Jackson’s injury and history, the chance of re-injury is higher than usual. Meanwhile, even if he were 100% throughout, the Ravens’ market rating is still clinging to dominant first halves against the Colts and Titans, and the assumption that the Ravens offense can go shot-for-shot with Buffalo is too far a reach.

Bet: Bills -3 (-115, DraftKings)

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-2.5, 44.5)

There’s no better way to get your power rating up in the betting market, and the general perception of a team, than to get blessed by NFL schedule-makers with three home games in a row.

The Falcons aren’t the first team to play three straight home games this season, but the 49ers won all three of theirs, and the Saints lost all three of theirs, and their market rating went in the direction you’d expect it to.

Atlanta dropped their first two home games, against the Ravens and Bears, but a win over San Francisco (despite its predictability, given the Niners’ injury issues) has supported the Falcons’ rating advancement up toward the high-side of their range, ignoring that they were out-gained in the win.

Backing Tampa Bay here is uncomfortable, because we know that a flukily-dominant win on the scoreboard has restored the Buccaneers’ market rating to right at league-average — a place that helped them to a run of 0-12 ATS with Baker Mayfield at the helm.

Mayfield’s injured hand wasn’t tested in his return against the Panthers last week, which might have bought it an extra week to heal. However, our reliance on Tampa Bay here is based on a defense that’s being overshadowed by the league-leading Vikings, as the class of the NFL.

With Todd Bowles calling plays, in what’s expected to be a stormy-but-hot Florida day, this should be as uncomfortable as Michael Penix has been all season, especially if his first read is unavailable and the pressure comes while holding a wet ball.

Bet: Buccaneers -2.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Browns @ Steelers (-3.5, 39.5)

It’s our first rematch of the season, between two teams with the same surprisingly-good record, and similar profiles, right down to their three-point game in Week 3, where the Browns out-gained the Steelers 372-361, taking an early lead, before Pittsburgh stormed back to tie it late.

Offensively, Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson are captaining ships with an almost-identical Success Rate (41.6% to 41.9%). While their defensive EPA/Play metrics are almost identical, the Browns have been much better when it comes to Success Rate, meaning that explosives have done the heavy-lifting against Cleveland — the types of plays that are rare from the Steelers offense since Rodgers came along.

From a market perspective, the Steelers have mostly held steady as the league-average team they were expected to be before the season, but their 5-2 record is aided by beating the Falcons with Cooper Rush, the Colts (coming straight from Europe), a comeback in Tampa Bay against its backup quarterback, and outlasting the Saints in Paris (with Tyler Shough’s two bad hands).

Now it’s the Steelers coming back home after a long trip to face the Browns, who, because of their usual bad-branding, uncertainty of new personnel, and Watson’s return, started with a market rating of 35/100.

The market has slowly moved Cleveland up in market perception, with potentially just a botched punt operation away from six straight wins. Yet, this line — acknowledging the league-average 1.75 points of home-field advantage, doesn’t consider these two teams as equals.

Neither Rodgers or Watson has lit up the league, sitting in the same cohort as Bo Nix and Bryce Young in the EPA/Play and CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation) matrix, but that’s the point — there’s nothing to choose from between the Browns and Steelers, so getting the hook over the field goal is the only way to play this one.

Bet: Browns +3.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Chargers @ Rams (-6.5, 44.5)

In a game that, if it wins, might inspire its own “Sunday Best” category called “The Thoroughly Uncomfortable Side,” we’re betting on the Chargers’ coaches and Justin Herbert, to have done something off of their bye to inspire a performance anywhere near where preseason expectations had them.

The Chargers are the only team in the league who combine having come into the season with a rating above league-average, but, without quarterback injury, already carry a rating below league-average. Every other team has mostly fluctuated on one side of “50” (or .500) or the other.

When the market has moved across that line, usually teams immediately played well enough to correct back above it, or bad enough to fall back below.

Example: Patriots at Bills in Week 4, where New England were downgraded significantly after getting blown out at Jacksonville, but responded with a win in Buffalo. In turn, the Panthers have crept up over league-average, only to lose to Tampa Bay and Green Bay.

Last week, the Rams’ rating dipped below their market rating range of 65-80 for the first time all season, and while that doesn’t guarantee a win, it set the bar as relatively low as it had been all season.

L.A. found the combination of will and game plan to run for 192 yards between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, setting up a rare five touchdowns in five red zone trips. Even a good Rams offense only scores 66% of the time (with Davante Adams available to throw to).

The Raiders have allowed touchdowns on 78% of opponents red zone attempts, while the Chargers allow 48% (10th in the NFL), but the key will be whether the Chargers can score themselves.

That’s the biggest leap of faith for an offense that’s been disjointed all season long, and the hope is that adjustments and better health will allow the Bolts to take advantage of a Rams defense ranks in the bottom-six in EPA/Play and Success Rate allowed.

Having gone into their bye week facing the Seahawks, Broncos, and Chiefs — all top-10 defenses — whatever regrouping the Chargers might have done could coincide with their best matchup, in a road game in their home stadium.

Bet: Chargers +6.5 (-102, DraftKings)

Patriots @ Dolphins (+7, 43.5)

Speaking of coming of their bye, the Dolphins showed that a winless team can take the extra week to get healthy, make a few changes to how they do things, and execute with professional pride, even as the overall season outlook looks bleak.

In the first year of Miami’s rebuild, Jeff Hafley doesn’t have the veteran talent to compete on a macro-level, but with youth and attentiveness to his message, the Dolphins will play hard for 60 minutes.

In their other two comparable early-season home games, where the heat (still expected to be up over 90 degrees) often gives the Dolphins an edge, Miami played the Chiefs to a draw in the box score (334-329 in yards, 19-18 first downs), and out-gained the Bengals 331-307, admittedly, after getting down 28-10 in the second half.

The betting market doesn’t have the Patriots rated as high as the Chiefs or the Bengals, and in what could be rainy South Florida conditions, the Patriots’ best offensive attack — Drake Maye’s deep passing — could struggle to connect more than when New England usually beats the teams they’re better than.

With a run game that still isn’t working, and ball-carriers with a penchant for fumbling, the Patriots should give Miami enough opportunity to use theirs to keep this close well into a potentially sloppy fourth quarter.

Bet: Dolphins +7 (-115, DraftKings)

The RUMP:

The Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay (RUMP) is a staple of THE WINDOW’s betting menu. In exchange for your promise to bet everything else in single-outcome wagers, we make this irresponsible parlay to try to win enough money to build a gold doubloon silo like we’re a young Scrooge McDuck:

But here’s the dirty, little secret: It’s actually a somewhat responsible bet. The RUMP is actually about making a 1.1-unit bet, trying to win any of three of the five underdogs for a modest payout at better than even-money… and if more than three underdogs win, well, so be it.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets.

Who to play

• Browns (+165)

• Vikings (+150)

• Chargers (+240)

• Dolphins (+260)

• Bears (+150)

How the odds look this week:

Note: PLEASE find a sportsbook that offers an early payout for when a football team takes a 17-point lead. The last thing you want to have happen is to watch an underdog take a big early lead only to have it, and your potential big win, evaporate.

“The Coin-flip game(s)”

Raiders @ Jets (-1.5, 45.5)

The Jets are favored again, and we’ve liked New York in good weather, buying the upside on Geno Smith being able to connect with his receivers.

In the case of betting a long pass completion, or on Omar Cooper Jr.’s props, that’s worked out, but for actual Jets’ team success, it hasn’t. For that, the finger has to be pointed at the coaching staff.

Smith and Kirk Cousins seemingly bring the same skillset, production, and career-arc to the table, and, on the surface, they both have Super Bowl-winning play-callers. Klint Kubiak won his last season, while Frank Reich’s came eight years ago, and he’s failed in every post he’s had since. Meanwhile, Aaron Glenn got the head coaching job in New York without any real success as the Lions’ defensive coordinator.

The Raiders’ defensive coordinator, Rob Leonhard, was the lone holdover from the previous staff, so he was on the practice field during Smith’s time as a Raider, and should have a good idea of what he wants to do to be successful.

Not only is this a coaching staff mismatch, it’s step-down in weight class for Las Vegas, that, after beating the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints, lost to playoff contenders; Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, and Rams.

With murmurs of it being time to give Fernando Mendoza a look, like Smith, Cousins has always found a way to keep his career afloat, and a win here (before the Raiders play the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos) would be in keeping with his career-arc.

Bet: Raiders +1.5 (-110, DraftKings)

“The Favorite(s)”

Colts @ Jaguars (-10, 46.5)

There are two big favorites this week, with the Bengals carrying the weight of up over double-digits against the Titans, after the trade of Jeffery Simmons.

This line probably could be just as high, because not only have the Colts dealt stalwarts in the trenches on each side of the ball — Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner — trade rumors and requests are swirling around Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs.

To get this line where it is now, the Jaguars — after a small downgrade for dropping a coin-flip game to Houston in London — are back inside their preseason range, and the Colts have been downgraded to around 35/100 in our estimated market ratings. That’s still ahead of the Titans, Cardinals, Giants (pre-Week 7), Dolphins, and Eagles, but with everyone now aware that the owner’s sideline notes say “burn it down and start over,” they’re still pre-rebuild, with room on the downside from a market perspective. Why won’t the Colts find themselves in the 20s by the trade deadline?

It’s not like the pieces were fitting together before this week.

Only Justin Herbert carries a CPOE worse than Daniel Jones, and on defense, the Colts already had the worst Pass Rush Win Rate in the NFL (per ESPN), and a Run-Stuff Win Rate close to the bottom as well. With a week off to regroup, and the experience of coming home from overseas to win nine in a row last year, Trevor Lawrence and company are getting the best possible matchup to reassert their dominance in the AFC South, creating standings space before a 3-game road trip.

Bet: Jaguars -10 (-105, DraftKings)

“Gotta bet the big game”

Vikings @ Lions (-3.5, 46.5)

Give me all the positive “Jared Goff against the blitz” stats you want, but Minnesota’s defensive attack is just that — so different under Brian Flores, that it can be earnestly described as a method of attack.

The 6-0 Vikings continue to be disrespected in the betting market, carry a rating that’s tied with the Packers for 13th in the NFL. Given they were a 1.5-point favorite in that Week 1 matchup, after everything that’s happened since, there’s not exactly a run on Skol stock.

The obvious reason for that is an offense that’s still straggling, but the personnel is starting to fit back into place after:

• Kyler Murray missed virtually the first two games

• Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson weren’t on the field together once Murray returned

• Jordan Mason (4.5 yards per carry) played his first full game last week

Essentially, Week 7 was the first game that the Vikings had all their preseason pieces (Murray, Mason, Jefferson, Addison, and TJ Hockenson), and while we’d have loved to have seen an offensive explosion for Kevin O’Connell, if the Vikings had their best game against the Lions defense this week, it wouldn’t be a surprise.

After all, they didn’t need much in two wins over Goff last season, when J.J. McCarthy and Max Brosmer combined for 194 passing yards and 12 total sacks taken.

The Vikings’ particular brand of pressure should get Goff off his spot, bringing the Lions’ production down at the same time, the offense starts to carry some of the weight.

Bet: Vikings +3.5 (-120, Bet365)

6-point teaser of the week (-120, Bet365)

Cowboys -0.5 / Broncos +7.5

I’m not sure what feels worse, laying points with the Cowboys or laying a -280 teaser-leg price on Dallas, but the Cardinals’ combination of an atrocious, occasionally disinterested defense, and an offense that’s dead-last in EPA/Play since that Week 1 upset of the Chargers, are enough to dare the Cowboys to screw this up.

In another rematch, Chiefs-Broncos could have been a contender for the total of the week on the Under in Denver, but 40.5 is a shade too low to try it. That low number does suggest the value of any and all points in a must-have clash for the Broncos — given their affront to tackling back in Week 1. The lower the total, the better it is to tease the spread up over a touchdown, especially on a home underdog in a game that profiles very similar to the Chiefs’ loss in Seattle last week.

“Total” waste of time

Eagles @ Commanders (-6, 40.5)

Who’s up for a Sunday-Nighter shootout?

Ok, that’s a stretch, as this total doesn’t require a track meet, but the Commanders are off their bye week, and instead of the soggy conditions they dealt with against the Giants and the 49ers strong defense before their bye, Washington faces a thoroughly disappointing Eagles defense (25th in adjusted Success Rate).

Why is the total this low, especially after Week 1’s meeting carried a total of 44 (and went over)?

As the line creeps up in the Commanders’ direction, the only excuse can be a low expectation for the Eagles offense under Tanner McKee, but 17 points should be enough of a contribution to get over this total, and Washington hasn’t allowed fewer than 23 all season.

Bet: Over 40.5 total points (-105, FanDuel)

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“I’ve never seen anything like that.”

“I can’t remember the last time that happened.”

We say these things all the time, because we have absolutely no memory, moving on to the next dozen games after the dozen we just watched.

However, a 42-0 second half, I have never seen before, and was not ready for.

A 42-0 first half happens all the time in college football, and then the dominant team takes their foot off the gas in the second half, a second half shutout with six touchdowns???

That’s what SMU put on California, after the Golden Bears (+18.5) led 20-17 at halftime!

Between that, and the late news breaking of Michigan State’s starting quarterback, Alessio Milivojevic, not being able to play (after not missing any snaps the week before), we ended up 3-4 in the “Saturday 7,” but that was more than made up for when 3-of-5 legs in our Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay (RUMP) got home for the fourth time this season, for a net win of around three units.

For Week 9, we’re looking for both to be in the positive, with an old reliable back after a week off in the late-night anchor spot.

For our early-week look at the big games in college football, check out this free piece for yahoo! sports:

CFB WEEK 9 BIG GAMES

Michigan @ Rutgers (+15.5, 45.5)

Yes, we live in an era of college football where I can say with a straight face that Northwestern has a better football team than Michigan.

Why that’s relevant for a matchup that doesn’t involve the Wildcats is because Rutgers — no one’s idea of a good team themselves — took a beating from both Northwestern and Indiana got downgraded in the betting market again, and are currently battling Stanford for the worst power rating of the Power-4 teams. Having beaten Maryland and gone blow-for-blow with USC at home, that’s probably a bit harsh.

Especially given how bad the Michigan offense continues to look. Outside of UTEP, the Wolverines haven’t scored more than the 21 points they scored against Penn State when they got a boost from Tommy Carr’s insertion into the lineup.

In just their second road game all season (it’s Halloween!!), with the shine worn off of Carr, and a week after taking the dreaded third loss of the season, in overtime, to Indiana (and with Michigan State on deck), how locked-in for Rutgers will Michigan be, and, even if they are, can they get enough points to push the scoring margin up over two touchdowns?

Bet: Rutgers +15.5 (-110, Bet365)

Stanford @ Louisville (-22.5, 60.5)

We don’t often lay a ton of points, but when we do, we’ll do it fading Stanford on a cross-country road trip.

Stanford’s won two straight, but beating Elon and North Carolina State (triggering the firing of Dave Doeren) is in keeping with their home results. However, the Cardinal have travelled east twice, losing by a combined 92-10 to Duke and Wake Forest, who both are rated below Louisville in the betting market.

Still with just two losses in the conference (and the tiebreaker over SMU), Louisville should still believe they have a chance to sneak into the ACC title game, and a bye week should get Lincoln Kienholz healthier than he has been in weeks, and the first situation all season where the Cardinals (plural) can freely run up the score.

Bet: Louisville -22.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Colorado State @ Utah State (-6.5, 63.5)

I can admit it was unnerving betting on Colorado State and its defense without the safety net of getting points last week, but the Rams turned over San Diego State just enough to break serve, and the return of Hauss Hejny did not disappoint.

How many times has a star quarterback come back from injury this season, only to clearly not be 100% and have it hinder his performance?

Hejny went 24-for-31, 333 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 85 rushing yards, and a pair of rushing touchdowns where he seemed content with helicoptering his body into the end zone. His hamstring seems fine.

The Aztecs joined the club of teams who racked up 500+ yards against the Rams, but just a couple stops were enough to give CSU a 56-49 win.

Utah State will probably manage their best offensive output of the season, but that bar is not particularly high, as the most points they have this season is 21 at home against Troy, and the Aggies have the worst offense in the PAC-12.

If the Rams could get four stops against SDSU, they can get five against Utah State, and that will be more than enough to stay inside the number, and possibly win outright.

Bet: Colorado State +6.5 (-102, DraftKings)

Kansas @ TCU (-6.5, 45.5)

We probably haven’t used postgame win expectancy enough this season, as a method to see how legitimate teams’ wins and losses have been, but usually the betting market is on top of that.

That might not be the case here, because is the rare instance where opponents “this” week showed up in the top five anomalies “last” week.

In Week 8, TCU got upset by West Virginia, as the Horned Frogs were the first team all season not to score at will against the Mountaineers’ defense, but WVU had the third-lowest postgame win expectancy, 28.6% (according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly).

Naturally, Florida Atlantic (15.2% against our RUMP pick Rice) and Army (24.8% against our Friday night pick Tulsa) had worse PWE.

Meanwhile, Kansas had beat Baylor despite the fourth-lowest postgame win expectancy. That was the final straw for Dave Aranda, who was fired the next day. Though, that was likely more a sign that things might have been lost before they kicked that game off.

It’s the perfect storm, since, had both games had a fairer result relative to how they were played this line might be up over a touchdown instead of underneath it.

Bet: TCU -6.5 (-106, FanDuel)

The Week 9 CFB RUMP:

Colorado State (+205)
Cincinnati (+225)
Appalachian State (+180)
USC (+205)
Washington (+250)

For the uninitiated:
Break 1.1 units into 11 separate 0.1-unit moneyline parlays.
The 10 combinations of 3-teamers, and 1 with all five.

Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern (-5.5, 56.5)

Appalachian State pulled off the most impactful Group-of-Six upset of the season toppling James Madison last Thursday night.

It’s possible that a standard letdown “spot” is afoot, but the Mountaineers have had a few extra days to move past that high, and the key element to that win is the gaining of the tiebreaker at one conference-loss. App State needs this one to get ahead of Georgia Southern, clearing a path to win out and get into the Sun Belt title game.

A point we’ve made consistently is that the second part to the letdown “spot” is that the market usually upgrades a team’s market rating because of the big win, but that’s not the case for App State, who still carry the rating they had at the start of the season (33/100). Meanwhile, Georgia Southern’s rating has gone up, as the Eagles (a 4.5-win team before the season) has passed the Mountaineers (5.5 wins) in market perception.

Bet: Appalachian State +5.5 (-111, Bet365)

Washington @ Nebraska (-7.5, 49.5)

We were supposed to bet on Washington two weeks on the road at Purdue, but it was too tough to pull the trigger on a Huskies’ team that looked lost in three straight losses, two of which came at home to Minnesota and Iowa — offenses that have done very little the rest of the season.

Elijah Brown started for Demond Williams and 488 yards later, Washington pulled off a 38-26 “upset” in a game that they would have been two-touchdown favorites before the season.

After the bye, the Huskies are back on the road against another mid-tier Big Ten team, for a matchup that would have been projected as a pick’em before the season.

With Washington holding the better season-long EPA/Play on both offense and defense, it’s possible that should still be the case, since Nebraska’s still dining out on starting the season 5-0 with wins over Maryland and Michigan State. Not nearly enough to earn being a big favorite here.

Bet: Washington +7.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Oregon State @ Fresno State (+5.5, 58.5)

What? You thought we might forget about the Beavers during their bye week?

Hopefully, the Oregon State offense hasn’t fallen out of rhythm, because going to Fresno State adds up to a betting line inside of a touchdown.

When last we spoke of the Beavs, we acknowledged that, by rule, we found the top of the market on their power rating, because they “only” won by 18 in a game that closed Oregon State -18.5. However, we know that game with Washington State was more of a blowout than that. Plus, we couldn’t help but notice that the Cougars — with Owen Eshelman, who debuted against Oregon State — were hanging with Boise State through three quarters last week.

Can Fresno State be the team to slow down the Beavers’ passing game?

Surprisingly, Oregon State actually has the better defensive EPA/Play and Success Rate allowed on standard downs, so there’s no reason to think Braden Atkinson and his receivers will be slowed down.

Bet: Oregon State -5.5 (-115, FanDuel)

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In Week 9 last season, the Panthers were 4-4, having just gotten their collective faces kicked in by the Bills, 40-9, when James Cook ran for 216 yards.

It was in keeping with Carolina’s general .500-level play — dating back to mid-2024 when Bryce Young was re-instated as the Panthers’ starting quarterback — and they were 13-point underdogs at Lambeau Field.

They won outright, 16-13, despite just over 100 yards passing.

The market hasn’t quite turned on the Panthers, after it took Carolina almost a calendar year (and a division championship) to be considered a league-average team, as they remain a .500 team through six games this season.

It is a reminder that the Panthers have long had wild swings in play on a week-to-week basis, and the Packers were once considered much better than they are now. An almost-10-point swing is jarring to think about in the context of determining value. Especially since Carolina’s game, leading up to this rematch, seems eerily familiar to last season.

Panthers @ Packers (-3.5, 47.5)

The Panthers have gone over the total in three games this season, against:

• The Bears in Week 1

• The Lions in arguably Young’s best game of his career

• Whatever that was last week against the Buccaneers — as Carolina had one of the great no-show games of the season, losing 43-13.

Before you could check-in on Bucs-Panthers, Bucky Irving had 10 touches on an opening drive touchdown, a Carolina punt-muff created a field goal, and a Bucs’ scoop’n’score put Tampa Bay up 17-0, and that was before a Panthers’ touchdown drive ended in a blocked-PAT that was returned for a defensive 2-point conversion.

Baker Mayfield didn’t need to test his b’gloved hand (7/11, 64 yards), as the Bucs’ running backs had 45 carries for 246 yards.

Guys, this game was a MESS.

It’s also not remotely replicable by the Packers offense, who, while consistently willing to push the ball down the field with long-bomb attempts by Jordan Love (which worked well against the Bears’ secondary), should have some red flags around it, given Green Bay only managed just over 300 total yards in back-to-back games against the Cowboys’ and Lions’ defenses.

Even the return of Josh Jacobs (11 carries, 36 yards) couldn’t help the ground game as the offensive line continues to struggle to run-block, and will be without center Sean Rhyan and guard Travis Glover.

Prior to last week, the Panthers defense had held up well against opposing rushers, in the top-10 of EPA/Play and Success Rate allowed against the run.

Matthew Golden has emerged as Love’s favorite target, but he’s nursing two separate injuries (shoulder, foot) that puts his availability in question, and would hurt the Packers’ explosiveness.

So why not back the Panthers getting 3.5 points in a game they should be anxious to play after being embarrassed just four days ago?

The Panthers’ offense is capable of moving the ball, but their own offensive line injuries are becoming untenable. Two games after getting tackle Taylor Moton back, he suffered a broken leg, and left guard Damien Lewis is out this Thursday (potentially allowing him to shoot another season of Billions), all while Carolina waits on a timeline for Ikem Ekwonu to make his season debut.

The Packers have been kept afloat defensively by Jonathan Gannon’s game plans to overload pass-protection and funnel teams to the run game. For example, Jahmyr Gibbs’ 119 rushing yards didn’t have the same effect over 29 carries, while the Cowboys and Bears weren’t willing to commit to it.

If Carolina does, taking heat off of Young behind a makeshift offensive line, we should see two teams forced into keeping things conservative on a short week, and a game played “first to 20 points wins.”

Bet: Under 47.5 total points (-108, DraftKings)

Player props

John Metchie: Over 1.5 receptions (-120, Bet365)

In Week 1, John Metchie didn’t play. In Week 2, he got on the field for seven snaps, as Xavier Legette was entrenched as the Panthers’ No. 3 receiver. Legette caught a 55-yard pass, hurt his knee, and is out until mid-November.

In Week 3, Metchie stepped in, and has played 43% of snaps catching 2, 3, 2, and 2 passes, on just over four targets per game.

Marshawn Lloyd: Under 5.5 rush attempts (-125, Bet365)

The run game being borderline useless is one thing, but the inefficiency of Marshawn Lloyd (2.6 yards per carry!), is no longer necessary to keep the opponent honest. That’s what Jacobs is for.

Last week, there were 17 carries to go around for running backs in a game that was close throughout. Jacobs got 11, Lloyd took 6. A week earlier, there were 20 Packers’ carries in an led-the-whole-way game, and Lloyd only had 8, with Pierre Strong trying his hand on 11. A week before THAT, Lloyd carried 10 of the 22 in a blowout win over the Bears.

With Jacobs back and exhibiting good form, he can go back to being a workhorse for Green Bay, often carrying it around 20 times, and a near-100% carry share in the past. With Lloyd not standing out at all, last week’s 11-6 (64.7%) split should look more like 80/20, keeping Lloyd at five or fewer.

Josh Jacobs: Over 17.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

The Packers might have beat the Lions if the ball hadn’t slipped through the hands of Jacobs on a late wheel route into the end zone. It was one of seven targets on the day, an acknowledgement of two things:

1. Given the Packers’ offensive line situation, the best way to get Jacobs the ball in his first game of the season was via the pass.

2. Jacobs is a really good receiver (36 receptions in each of his two seasons in Green Bay)

The catches Jacobs did make added up to 55 yards, including a 25-yarder for a touchdown, so we’ll expect him to be part of the game plan in the passing game again on a short week.

Anytime touchdowns

Chuba Hubbard (-115, FanDuel)

Scoring in four of six games, or 66%, implies odds of -200.

Last season, Hubbard had just one rushing touchdown, because he was splitting carries with Rico Dowdle, who had seven total scores. All in all, Panthers’ tailbacks scored in 11 of 17 games (64%).

This season, there’s not much for Hubbard to compete with for the important carries, unless the Panthers get cute and try to give former Packer AJ Dillon (+1600) a chance to score. Which might be worth a couple bucks, just in case.

John Metchie (+950, Bet365)

The former second-round pick out of Alabama, and cancer survivor, is on his fourth team, but whenever he’s played, he’s produced.

Already with a touchdown in one of his four games this season, he scored twice in nine games with the Jets last year. That’s a game with a touchdown in three of his last 13, and a 23% hit-rate implies fair odds of just longer than +300. On the field as much as he is, why not take a shot on someone with as good a chance to score as others who carry half the payout?

Josh Jacobs (-135, FanDuel)

Jacobs’ balletic receiving touchdown last week might make you forget what a battering ram he can be at the goal line, but last week he was stopped from the 3-yard-line on 2nd-and-goal, the Packers threw on third down, and Green Bay was never inside the 5-yard-line again.

Jacobs scored 14 times, and in eight of his first nine games, when he was still fresh last season. Having already gotten the first chance to score in his season debut last week, you know he’ll get at least one look if the Packers find themselves on the doorstep. Given the Panthers are still without their starting corners, a defensive penalty in the end zone could be all we need to put him in position.

Christian Watson (+135, FanDuel)

Including the Packers’ playoff game, Watson scored in five of his 11 games last season, before starting the season by scoring six touchdowns in four of his first five games. Even after being held out of the end zone in back-to-back games, Watson has a two-season hit-rate of 50% (or an even-money bet), to score. With odds any better than a coin-flip, we’ll take Watson to get back in the paint.

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We’re through Week 7 of the NFL season, and, by my math, that’s not exactly the halfway point of the season, but when it comes to making futures bets for the remainder of the schedule, you want to do it with some sample of information in the rearview, but with enough of a runway for players and teams to make a meaningful move.

Free to read, thanks to Yahoo! Sports, here are the five futures to add now:

FIVE NFL FUTURES ADDS

We’re setup with interest in a handful of NFL futures markets, given the bets we made before the season.

Here’s what we’ve been sweating:

NFL Awards:

NFL AWARDS BETTING

• MVP: Joe Burrow (+850), currently (+450)📈

• Offensive Player of the Year: Add via Yahoo! Sports

• Defensive Player of the Year: Will Anderson (+700), currently +200📈

• Offensive Rookie of the Year: Added on THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast, this week (and via Yahoo! Sports

• Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jacob Rodriguez (+1500), currently +600📈

• Comeback Player of the Year: Add via Yahoo! Sports

• Coach of the Year: Kevin O’Connell (+2700), currently +600📈

NFL Passing-stat leaders:

NFL PASSING LEADERS

• Passing yards: Drake Maye (+1400), currently +3000📉

• Passing touchdowns: Matthew Stafford (+650), currently +750; Trevor Lawrence (+2100), currently +800📈

• Interceptions: Sam Darnold (+2200), currently +450📈

NFL Receiving-stat leaders:

NFL RECEIVING LEADERS

• Receptions: Zay Flowers (+5500), currently +3300📈; Ja’Marr Chase (+475), currently (+2800)📉; Brock Bowers (+2500), currently +4000📉

• Receiving yards: Chris Olave (+2200), currently +1400 📈

• Receiving TD: Puka Nacua (+1100), currently +4000 📉

NFL Rushing-stat leaders:

NFL RUSHING LEADERS

• Rushing yards: Jahmyr Gibbs (+700), currently +500 📈

• Rushing TD: Javonte Williams (+1600), currently +700 📈

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Get dressed up, go out, and enjoy Halloween. Live your damn lives!

That’s essentially what College Football is telling you to do in no certain terms. Hell, they even schedule Texas Tech for a Halloween morning in Lubbock, and are playing what we’re still tempted to call “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,” on October 31st.

It’s a grim slate for big games this week, but, FREE, for Yahoo! Sports, we’ve got a look back at the betting market moves from Week 8, and four bets in the best games we can make an argument for in Week 9:

CFB WEEK 9 BIG GAMES

Ok, admittedly, I’m not going anywhere Saturday, but that’s kinda the job.

Halloween closes with Ohio State-USC, a game more interesting than big, but one we’ve already got a bet on from before the season at USC +7.5. Which, at the moment, we’re holding some line value, as the Buckeyes test out a new quarterback.

Getting out there into the world this Saturday should be traded for pure, unadulterated lethargy next Saturday where we’re already looking forward to:

• BYU-Utah

• Texas-Missouri

• Alabama-LSU

• Kentucky-Tennessee

• Georgia-Ole Miss

• Miami-Notre Dame

A slate that could have been even better if Oregon, going to Ohio State, had kept up their end of the bargain this season!

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“When I get it right, great! I want you to be able to see my work and understand how I got there, when I don’t.”

In this week’s episode of THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic) looks back at Week 7 in the NFL, starting with a surprise start to the Monday Night Football game between the Cowboys and Eagles, and frustration around Saquon Barkley’s availability.

Then, in “Right or Wrong,” Matt looks back at what went wrong for Tyler Shough in a game that probably should have gone over the total in Paris, but stalled like traffic through a protest.

The 1pm games all started badly, but experience was key in reminding that most will come back around (four of seven did), but that we’ve reached the part of the season where some of the known “Jekyll and Hyde” teams might just no-show a game, even as the opponent’s quarterback has a quasi-claw for a throwing hand.

The player props carried the day on Sunday, and were so close to 6-0 on the prime time bookends, but if you cherry pick a small sample size of results, you’ll be missing out on the good ones, as one bad bettor did in a rare edition of “Don’t be that guy.”

Maybe you missed it?

• The NFL Betting Market “Glimpse” after Week 6

• Thursday Night Football: Patriots-Bears

• NFL Week 7 betting: “The Sunday Best”

• NFL Week 7 props: “The Player Prop Express”

• Monday Night Football: Cowboys-Eagles

• College Football betting: The big games for Week 8

• College Football betting: The “Saturday 7” for Week 8

In college football, the weeknight heater got snapped in a pair of weird ways, as UMass got their star quarterback back, but, while it moved the market our way, it didn’t help. Then, Tulsa had one of the lowest-key choke jobs of the season. Luckily, a 3-4 Saturday 7 was saved by the RUMP, which itself was THIS close to being a big-time hit.

Plus, the Heisman Report on a week off for Jeremiah Smith, and why the “secret” weeknight CFB plays for Week 9 are a disappointing selection because of bets already made before the season.

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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It’s a quasi-deja vu for the Eagles.

Like one of those nightmares where the scenario is flipped.

Four weeks after going to Chicago to take on a backup quarterback no one thought could do much, for a Monday Night Football game that was supposed to be a good matchup, Philadelphia is the side that’s run into quarterback issues.

Free, for Yahoo! Sports, we take a look at the betting market, and why the side isn’t appealing, even if we’ve already seen the underdog come through once before:

MNF: COWBOYS EAGLES BETTING

While the Under has taken a hit since this was sent in for publishing on Sunday night, there’s still some value left in at 43.5.

Also, per usual, we have our trio of player props, and anytime touchdowns worth betting on for what will hopefully a low-scoring game.

What’s THE WINDOW?

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Halloween came two weeks early in the prop game last Sunday, with a twist on the old campfire story about the hook scraping on the car door.

While it’s a promising sign to go from reviewing the bad bounces as to why we didn’t go 5-5, to looking at a 5-5 Sunday and wondering how we didn’t go at least 8-2, the following results don’t feel great.

• Jonathan Taylor: Under 93.5 rushing yards — Finished with 94 rushing yards

• Kenneth Gainwell: Over 24.5 rushing + receiving yards — Finished with 24 rushing + receiving yards

• Travis Kelce: Over 53.5 receiving yards — Finished with 53 receiving yards

Throw in Michael Penix finding himself in a trailing game-state due to special teams turnovers, and still barely creeping over his passing attempt total, and we only had one legitimate, clear-cut loser — Tetairoa McMillan sailing over his yardage total.

For Week 7, there’s no reason not to think we can continue our improved results in our approach to the derivative betting markets.

How did our fake fantasy team do last week?

5-5

Felt better than that.

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each player to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.

QB1: Geno Smith — Longest pass completion, Over 33.5 yards (-110, DraftKings)

• Long completion of 34+ in five of six games

  • Other game: 32-yard pass completion in the rain vs. CLE

• Nine passes of 30+ yards to six different receivers

  • Addition of Omar Cooper Jr., healthy after missing almost all of the first five weeks

  • AD Mitchell expected back after missing four games

  • Breece Hall expected back after missing three games

• Dolphins are 29th in dropback EPA/Play defensively

QB2: J.J. McCarthy — Under 203.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)

• McCarthy’s stats came in garbage time last week against a bad Saints defense

• 41% Success Rate last season with the Vikings, and just 6.7 yards per pass attempt

• Texans defensive metrics are middle of the pack, but have shutdown mediocre-to-poor quarterbacks

  • Daniel Jones: 4.2 yards per play to the Colts, turned them over three times

  • Cam Ward: 3.2 yards per play to the Titans, turned them over twice

• Jameis Winston lurking to replace McCarthy should Giants be trailing late and have to go pass-heavy

RB1: Kenneth Walker — Under 85.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)

• Walker’s former team, taking some heat for not re-signing him, is third in rush defense (EPA/Play & Success Rate)

• Defensive Success Rate of Chiefs’ opponents on rushing plays:

  • Broncos — 7th (Couldn’t tackle in Week 1)

  • Colts — 30th

  • Dolphins — 25th

  • Raiders — 16th

  • Chargers — 18th

RB2: RJ Harvey — Over 3.5 receptions (-110, DraftKings)

• Averages 4.6 receptions per game

  • Bo Nix showed no interest in pushing the ball down the field last week despite claiming to be “more aggressive”

• Possible return of Jonah Coleman takes away carries from Harvey, leading to more touches through the air

• Cardinals recently allowed 10 yards per catch to Christian McCaffrey, 11 YPC to Jahmyr Gibbs, and five receptions for 35 yards to Rams’ RB duo

WR1: Amon-Ra St. Brown — Over 76.5 receiving yards (-115, Bet365)

• Setup for a possible back-and-forth shootout with Packers

• GB vs. No. 1 receivers:

  • Allowed nine receptions to CeeDee Lamb last week

  • Justin Jefferson: Eight receptions, 92 yards

  • Drake London: Nine receptions, 194 yards

WR2: Germie Bernard — Longest reception, Under 20.5 yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Bernard is Aaron Rodgers’ new favorite target, but it’s mostly underneath coverage

  • Reception and receiving yardage numbers go up, but so does long reception line (even if not warranted)

• Just one reception of over 20 yards out of 24 catches

• Until last week, the Saints had been good in limiting explosive pass plays to opposing wide receivers

WR3: Ted Hurst III — Over 36.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Baker Mayfield returns for Buccaneers

  • Hurst stats w/ Mayfield in 3 games: 14 targets, 6 rec., 103 yards, TD

  • Hurst stats w/o Mayfield (Jalon Daniels) in 3 games: 9 targets, 5 rec., 65 yards

• Emeka Egbuka out (plays 80+% of the snaps), Hurst steps into No. 2 role

• Panthers are in the bottom-half of pass defense metrics

TE: Michael Mayer — Over 30.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

• Mayer playing in 80% of the snaps in non-blowout situations

• Caught 19 of 23 targets in four games with Brock Bowers in the lineup (taking defensive attention)

• Rams are 27th in defensive Success Rate on dropbacks

• Inside linebacker Nate Landman is out this week

  • Other Rams’ LBs have played less than 50% of the snaps this season

FLEX: Josh Downs — Under 4.5 receptions (-112, FanDuel)

• Without Alec Pierce (and Michael Pittman now in Pittsburgh), Downs is struggling to fit the role of No. 1 receiver with Daniel Jones

  • Caught just 24 of 41 targets

  • Under 4.5 receptions in four of six games

    • Even stayed under without Tyler Warren last week

  • Keenan Allen has been Jones’ most utilized target

• Facing Vikings’ best pass defense in the NFL

• Vikings offense might not be potent enough to put Colts in throwing-centric offense

SUPER-FLEX: Kaelon Black — Over 7.5 rush attempts (+105, Bet365)

• 49ers’ wide receiver room is very thin

  • Rumors of McCaffrey taking more snaps in the slot as a receiver, possibly giving Black more opportunities for traditional carries

• Black had eight carries midway through the third quarter on Monday night before the offense dried up, the Commanders went on long drive, and McCaffrey was responsible for plays to kill the clock

• Heading into the bye, on the road, sets up as a “run game & defense” game for San Francisco

BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Harold Fannin Jr. (+215)

• Justin Jefferson (+165)

• Omar Cooper Jr. (+400)

• Jalen Coker (+170)

• Colby Parkinson (+250)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from DraftKings

THE 🪜LADDER MATCH:

NEW feature, where we take a unit and split it up the ladder on a player prop!

Omar Cooper Jr. (✈️): Receptions (Mixed)

• 0.69 units: 3+ receptions (-115, Bet365)

• 0.4 units: 4+ receptions (+225, Bet365)

• 0.2 units: 5+ receptions (+515, DraftKings)

• 0.1 units: 6+ receptions (+1140, DraftKings)

Week 7 SGP+:

Erick All Jr.: 3+ receptions (+475)
Marvin Harrison Jr.: 4+ receptions (+225)
Bijan Robinson: 50+ receiving yards (+300)
Blake Corum: 3+ receptions (+400)

 ~350-1 at Bet365 

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It took a little longer than we’d like to admit to have our best Sunday of the season, especially at a modest 7-4, but it was a positive sign that, without the same level of coaching heinousness and minimal kicker hijinks, results at least made some sense.

The exceptions might be the Giants out-gaining the Saints 461-319, but who’s going to be surprised by the Jameis Winston/J.J. McCarthy combo throwing three picks?

The Buccaneers blew their game with the Steelers, but with Tampa Bay teased up to +8.5, that’s somebody else’s problem.

Finally, losing a bet on the Cowboys when the offense is the problem in a game the Dallas defense “only” allowed 23 points brings its own particular brand of consternation.

We’re a third of the way through the season, which should bring a little more certainty about the uncertain nature of the NFL, as we get into the second trimester.

Check out last week’s “Sunday Best” :

NFL WEEK 6 BEST BETS

49ers @ Falcons (+2.5, 49.5)

Excerpt from THE WINDOW’s (free) submission to Yahoo! Sports’ best bets of the week:

Let’s dust off our old-school handicapping hat and start with how tough of a “spot” this is on the 49ers. It’s a short week, travelling from one coast to the other, knowing that going into their bye with a 6-1 record is no failure. Especially, if their NFC West rivals are both under .500 through seven weeks.

Of course, this doesn’t mean San Francisco will be trying to lose, but it should dissuade the Niners from being aggressive with the availability of Nick Bosa, Mike Evans, and Deebo Samuel, if they’re even close to being able to play.

Offensively, things dried up considerably in the second half of Monday Night Football, after Evans went out with a sore Achilles, limiting San Francisco to short passes and the run game with Christian McCaffrey. Without being able to extend drives, the Commanders had more opportunities to make a pending blowout close, than even they might have expected.

With all due respect, a wide receiver corps of Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing, and Brandin Cooks wouldn’t have the 49ers undefeated if that’s what Brock Purdy was working with from the start of the season.

The 49ers’ offensive line has been outstanding this season, with top-5 win rates in both pass-protection and run blocking (per ESPN), but the big surprise in this matchup is that the Falcons have had top-5 win rates on defense.

In San Francisco’s only other road game, at Seattle’s defense and their No. 1-ranked pass-rush win rate, the 49ers only accumulated 269 total yards, getting even that many because of Evans’ 113 receiving yards.

The Falcons have dropped the first two of their three-straight home games, so we should expect their full attention with the undefeated Niners coming to town, in a game that sets up as their best chance for a statement win.

Bet: Falcons +2.5 (-101, DraftKings)

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-3, 44.5)

There is no other way to describe the Panthers’ win over the Eagles last week than to say they outlasted Philadelphia.

The Eagles’ 3.6 yards per play gave Carolina more than enough opportunity to eventually pull away, but the Panthers’ 13 penalties for 149 yards is an appalling statistic.

Playing in the least-interesting game of Week 6 kept Carolina’s performance under the radar, as they maintain a market rating that had been pushed up past league-average for the first time in the Bryce Young “era,” as the Panthers continue to dine out on running the Lions up and down the field in primetime.

It’s a back-handed compliment, but hurting yourself by subtracting almost 150 yards and still winning is almost impressive, and perhaps a certain amount of sloppiness should be expected out of a bye after playing such a good game going into it.

For Week 7, the Panthers return home for a divisional matchup that should maximize their focus, and is a test about whether they can bring their best in a big game against a vulnerable opponent.

The Jalon Daniels’ honeymoon ended with an 11-play stretch that included seven total yards and two interceptions, as part of a 16-3 fourth-quarter lead that evaporated.

On the surface, the Buccaneers’ market rating should be on the move back up with the return of Baker Mayfield, but a massive red flag has cropped up:

The more it has looked like Mayfield will return, the shorter the point spread has gotten, as the Bucs’ market rating creeps back up to where it was when he last played. Which makes this the time to remind you of Tampa’s 12-straight losses against the spread with him at the helm.

Much of that came with Mayfield playing through injury, and that certainly seems to be the scenario here, vis-a-vis the reinforced throwing-glove situation.

Bet: Panthers -2.5 (-121, Bet365)

Browns @ Titans (+1.5, 37.5)

In a league where one good performance in victory can swing perception towards a team, rare is it that watching a team win can elicit no change in feeling.

Ladies and Gentlemen, your mid-2020s, Tennessee Titans!

It took a blocked punt, a sizeable punt return, and a smattering of Daniel Jones turnovers to get the Titans a rare win. As such, the game-after-a-win cohort is a small sample size for Tennessee, but, let’s look at last season:

• Week 5:

  • Fluke win at Arizona (Emari Demercado, things of that nature)

    • Next week: Titans go from +6.5 vs. LV in the lookahead line to +3.5

      • Titans lose by 10 with just 225 yards

• Week 14:

  • Fluke win at Cleveland (out-gained 412-292, just 108 passing yards, but scored 31 points)

    • Next week: Titans don’t cover +12.5, losing by 13 at San Francisco

      • Trailed by 21 entering the fourth quarter

• Week 16:

  • Win over Gardner Minshew (injured early) and Chris Oladokun

    • Next week: 2.5-point home underdogs to Saints

      • Allowed 8.1 yards per play, and lose by eight

After being downgraded in the betting market to the worst team in the NFL (mid-20s out of 100), the Titans have crept back up into their preseason range, off of their win over the Colts.

The 4-2 Browns pull out another ugly win over the Ravens, and get their own rating boost (40/100), but Cleveland might be one botched punt operation in rainy conditions against the Jets from potentially coming in with a five-game winning streak — something deserving of an upgrade in perception.

Bet: Browns -1.5 (-108, DraftKings)

Broncos @ Cardinals (+4.5, 43.5)

Sam Darnold threw two of the most grotesque interceptions imaginable given time and score, and the big quarterback talking point coming out of last Thursday night’s game with the Broncos was about how inept Bo Nix is.

Wins will mostly keep your market rating stabilized, especially high-profile ones, but we’re up to two of 12 halves where the Broncos have moved the ball well, making big plays (second half vs. Rams and Jaguars).

Our estimated market ratings have the Broncos as an above-average team (54/100), but the offense has regressed to a point where their weighted, standard metrics are in the same neighborhood has the Saints, Giants, Chargers, Steelers, and Eagles. All of whom have been considered below-average all season.

Where the Cardinals come apart is against teams with an offensive plan (49ers, Lions), or a defense (Seahawks) that is so overwhelming that Jacoby Brissett can’t be effective when getting the ball out quickly.

At 12th in adjusted, weighted EPA/play allowed, and 18th in Success Rate allowed, the Broncos’ defense hasn’t played on the level of Seattle (top-5 in both).

The Cardinals only two home games came in similarly-lined games with Seattle and Detroit, two teams worthy of their rating more than the Broncos, based on what we’ve seen when looking deeper than wins and losses.

Bet: Cardinals +4.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Rams @ Raiders (+3.5, 48.5)

Now six weeks into the season, the betting market is starting to take an “enough is enough”-style stance on various teams, and it’s up to bettors to decide whether it’s fair or not.

You could have done really well blindly fading the Rams’ hype, as L.A. is 2-4 against the spread. That alone should be enough to downgrade them from being considered the Super Bowl favorite (now +1100) and the best team in the NFL (a rating in the 70s) to the mid-60s.

The downward trigger this week hasn’t just come from the results, but injuries to Davante Adams, Poona Ford, and Kobie Turner (to go along with Myles Garrett’s absence in replacing Jared Verse from last year’s team). Plus, concerning injury reports about Puka Nacua, Nate Landman, and Trent McDuffie, opens up the possibility that the Rams haven’t hit their floor, even after this downgrade.

If L.A. is just borderline playoff team (+100 to make it) then their rating should be down with teams like the Panthers (-150), Cowboys (+115), and Packers (-130) — all of whom are rated in the low-50s.

Outside of a tough trip to New England, the Raiders have come close to scoring upsets over the Chiefs and Bills, and one of those is coming. Against a banged-up defense, whose metrics had already fallen off to the point where it’s bottom-5 in the league, that day could very well by Sunday.

Bet: Raiders +3.5 (-106, FanDuel)

The RUMP:

The Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay (RUMP) is a staple of THE WINDOW’s betting menu. In exchange for your promise to bet everything else in single-outcome wagers, we make this irresponsible parlay to try to win enough money to build a gold doubloon silo like we’re a young Scrooge McDuck:

But here’s the dirty, little secret: It’s actually a somewhat responsible bet. The RUMP is actually about making a 1.1-unit bet, trying to win any of three of the five underdogs for a modest payout at better than even-money… and if more than three underdogs win, well, so be it.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets.

Who to play

• Saints +150

• Falcons +125

• Cardinals +180

• Raiders +160

• Eagles +175

How the odds look this week:

Note: PLEASE find a sportsbook that offers an early payout for when a football team takes a 17-point lead. The last thing you want to have happen is to watch an underdog take a big early lead only to have it, and your potential big win, evaporate.

“The Coin-flip game(s)”

Bengals @ Ravens (-1.5, 48.5)

It seems like a coin-flip as to whether Lamar Jackson will play on Sunday, as this line has toggled between our projected line of Ravens -3 (with Jackson at 100%) to Bengals -1 with Tyler Huntley.

Just the fact that’s in question makes us wonder how willing the Ravens’ quarterback will be to use his difference-making attribute, which makes it unlikely that an announcement about Jackson pushes this line to the key number of +3. So, the news about who plays for Baltimore shouldn’t result in anything more than a slight shift in moneyline pricing.

Defensively, Baltimore’s better at limiting explosive plays, but the Bengals are better on play-to-play basis via Success Rate. Joe Burrow doesn’t really rely on explosiveness, while the Ravens are limited to needing to be a good Success Rate team with either Tyler Huntley or a hindered Jackson at the helm.

Coming out of their bye in good health, we might as well grab the Bengals at any price with a “+“ in front of it, and see where the chips fall in the market once Jackson’s status is confirmed.

Bet: Bengals +1.5 (-112, DraftKings)

“The Favorite(s)”

Dolphins @ Jets (-4.5, 39.5)

Nobody likes the idea of laying points with the Jets, but the worst defense in the NFL coming to town is the ideal matchup for New York, and an offense has looked passable in Week 1, Week 3 and Week 6 — three road games in good conditions.

In what should be their first home game in clear weather, this should be something of an offensive breakout for the Jets who might have had it last week had they been able to convert one or both of their short-yardage opportunities against the Patriots, extending two drives on a day they moved the ball well.

Offensively for Miami, the only quarterbacks to have played worse than Malik Willis in more than one start are Jayden Daniels and Baker Mayfield. Which means Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray, Cam Ward, Jalon Daniels, Marcus Mariota, Bo Nix, Jameis Winston, and everyone else, has been more efficient.

Bet: Jets -4.5 (-112, Bet365)

Giants @ Texans (-10.5, 43.5)

J.J. McCarthy gets the call to start in Houston, because, honestly, why not?

McCarthy has played all of eight snaps when the Giants had a better than 10% chance of winning this season. In the smallest of sample sizes, McCarthy’s -0.56 EPA/Play is worse than everyone but Andy Dalton’s one throw/one interception cameo for the Eagles in Week 3.

Essentially, McCarthy’s “success” last week came in a virtual preseason-like setup in a trailing game state against an already-soft defense playing even softer.

The Texans defense is still going off of reputation alone, but here’s a list of quarterbacks they’ve faced:

• Josh Allen

• Joe Burrow

• Daniel Jones

• Dak Prescott

• Cam Ward

• Trevor Lawrence

Against Jones, the Texans allowed just 4.2 yards per play, and turned the Colts over three times, before giving up just 3.2 yards per play to the Titans, turning them over twice. J.J. McCarthy doesn’t have the resume of Jones or even Ward.

The Giants, already getting nothing from their run game since the Jaxson Dart injury (30th in the NFL), should be lucky to get to the team total of 13.5 they’re lined at, but even if they do, the Giants defense is facing a step-up in weight class after a run of Titans, Cardinals, Commanders, and Saints.

Bet: Texans -10.5 (-105, FanDuel)

“Gotta bet the (other) big game”

Packers @ Lions (-3, 53.5)

We’ll use a big Sunday-nighter next, and the international game later on, but most any NFC North tilt is a big one, given how good the division has been so far this season.

The Packers have seen their market rating shoot up after wins over Tyson Bagent and whatever the Cowboys were doing on offense last week, and Jonathan Gannon’s defense has been the No. 1-rated defense over those home games of the last two weeks.

Either they’ve completed revamped the unit, or it’s just a small-sample aberration — in a similar way that the Lions’ defensive EPA/Play is second over that same time frame after one good game at Arizona.

The return of Josh Jacobs might give the Packers offense a shot of life in the run game, but it’s at least as likely that the offensive line still isn’t opening holes against a Lions’ run defense whose effectiveness has been shadowed by a bad pass defense and Jacobs isn’t midseason-ready.

For Detroit, it will take more than just the expected return of an arguably more important piece, Brian Branch, for the defense to be considered good. Coming out of their bye, though, the Lions should be able to out-score a one-dimensional offense, that’s had it pretty easy since they were being rated as a below-average team three weeks ago.

Bet: Lions -3 (-118, DraftKings)

6-point teaser of the week (-120, Bet365)

Vikings -0.5 / Chiefs +8.5

Don’t want to lay points with the Vikings, but are pretty sure the Minnesota defense will have Daniel Jones in a blender? Well, here’s your chance to eliminate any extra ask of Minnesota, at a small discount (-275 odds of a single teaser leg, compared to -300 on the moneyline).

You have to pair the Vikings with something to get that discount, and with so few good teasers options on the board this week, we’re compelled to take the rare opportunity to tease the Chiefs up over a touchdown.

“Total” waste of time

Steelers @ Saints (+3.5, 44.5)

Two of the worst defenses in the NFL… AND… a total lined on the lower side of the mid-40s?! Sure!

The Steelers defense has looked solid that last two weeks, but getting one of the “spots” of the year — at home versus the Colts after they’d played in England, and Jalon Daniels — after two weeks of tape on the Bucs’ rookie, is as advantageous as it gets.

Pittsburgh was 28th and 29th in weighted EPA/Play and Success Rate after we adjust for garbage time and high-leverage plays (and that includes a game against Cooper Rush!).

If those rankings sound familiar to Saints fans (they won’t), it’s because New Orleans sits in those spots season-long, essentially vacated by the Steelers because of Pittsburgh’s recent opponents.

If the Steelers create more high-leverage turnovers — something that’s hurt the Saints chances of winning this season — that should only help increase scoring in Paris.

Bet: Over 44.5 total points (-110, DraftKings)

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“I’m not superstitious, but I’m a little stitious.” — Michael Scott, Dunder-Mifflin Paper Company.

If you’ve ever written or said anything on a microphone, that’s one of those lines that you wish you had thought of. A single sentence that can shake you to your very core, creatively.

In sports betting, a single statement can do the same. For the jinx, the whammy, the mush, is always lurking.

Or at least those of us on the “super” side of things tend to believe.

At 41-15 for Oregon State (-18.5), I received the following message:

< The name(s) of the following perpetrator(s) have been hidden to protect their identity >

Within minutes:

Even with our buck-toothed heroes tacking on a late touchdown to cover the early-week number, Oregon State, in fact, could not beat the closing line of -18.5.

It was a lot closer than our season-long pets, Georgia State (+11.5), who got railroaded by James Madison’s best effort of the season, despite a closing line move down to +8. Those two losses, rooted in riding our regulars to the top of the market (and over the cliff), paired with two other bets that beat the close — Kansas +4.5 (+3), Wisconsin +2.5 (ML -105) — are a recipe for the worst “Saturday 7” result of the season.

This is where we note the continuance of “secret” podcast-only weeknight best bets, that went 4-1 last week, and 3-0 as of this writing this week.

In truth, what we say in confidence — aloud or via text — probably doesn’t affect what happens clear across the country, BUT… there’s also no proof it doesn’t.

All we can do is continue to beat the betting market to the best of the number, and quietly wait for that to pay off. Whether that takes days, weeks, months, or years.

For our early-week look at the big games in college football, check out this free piece for yahoo! sports:

CFB WEEK 8: BIG GAME BETTING

California @ No. 23 SMU (-18.5, 55.5)

Grabbing Oregon’s defensive coordinator as your new head coach sounds like a good idea, right up until the point where he’s unable to work any magic with the defense, and mishandles your pro-prospect quarterback in head-scratching fashion.

What, on earth, is Tosh Lupoi doing with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele?

Just when I started to (somewhat) confidently spell his name on the first try, Lupoi passed on putting JKS back in the lineup, despite him getting cleared to play Wake Forest last week.

That might have been vibes-based, considering the backup, Jackson Brousseau, helped California upset Virginia Tech the week before, but, come on.

Then the Golden Bears went down 41-0 to the Demon Deacons.

Already cashing our tickets on Wake to go over 5.5 wins this season, as part of 3-1 on already-clinched win totals.

Eventually, Lupoi put Sagapolutele in and he completed 15-of-18 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown (in, admittedly, garbage time).

It’s betting on rational coaching (which can be scary sometimes), but if JKS gets the start for Cal, he makes the Golden Bears, at worst, a nationally average team.

SMU just pushed the closing line of -10 against Virginia, semi-snapping a 3-game ATS losing streak. As such, it seems the market has an accurate understanding of the Mustangs’ estimated market rating (70/100).

The highest possible line with JKS back in the lineup is -15, with a higher possibility being that Cal is underrated and SMU is overrated, and it should be shorter than that.

Bet: California +18.5 (-105, DraftKings)

No. 2 BYU @ UCF (+7, 43.5)

Fresh off the banger-est of bangers-only Saturday, we’re deep in the weeds of #SpotSZN, and they take away your sharp-bettor card if you don’t take the ‘dog here.

In regular English, we’re talking about the situations when a team has to go on the road the week after they win a massive home game, having played at their absolute peak, and with maximum focus and effort.

It’s almost impossible to bring that level the next week, and, often times, the betting market has rated that team with the expectation they will.

Admittedly, just holding BYU to last week’s pregame rating would make them 7.5-point favorites, so there is some of that letdown built into this number.

UCF comes out of their bye, after back-to-back road games that look on the scoreboard like they were handled with ease at Houston and Oklahoma State. However, they had a fourth quarter lead in the former, and were tied at halftime in the latter. In both, the Knights were right there in the yardage battle.

When last Central Florida played in the “Bounce House,” they beat TCU by eight, one point more than BYU beat the Horned Frogs in their last road trip.

Bet: UCF +7 (-115, DraftKings)

Michigan State @ No. 9 UCLA (-14.5, 43.5)

Wisconsin-UCLA didn’t quite qualify as a banger, but I’m sure both thought it was.

The Bruins were coming off a rare win in Eugene (not just for them, but anyone), but without starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava (out for the season).

Perhaps having to rally around their No. 2 quarterback kept UCLA from having a letdown, but 3.2 yards per carry and four turnovers (2 INT, 2 DOWNS) doesn’t scream “spot” avoidance. The Badgers’ 100+ yards in penalties might have had something to do with the Bruins surviving.

Staying undefeated means the Bruins keep their power rating in the betting market, but asking any team to keep winning, and doing so by significant margin is tough. Especially when the opponent doesn’t look like much of a threat.

At 0-4 in Big Ten play, Michigan State doesn’t look dangerous, but, if you’ve followed them relative to the interest of our tickets on the Spartans to stay under 3.5 wins (+140), you know that Sparty’s been a little scrappy — losing on the final play to Illinois and Northwestern.

UCLA can make a case that it’s better than those two, but the season doesn’t fall apart if they do just enough to win during this lull in the schedule.

Bet: Michigan State +14.5 (-106, FanDuel)

No. 15 Iowa @ Minnesota (+7, 40.5)

THE WINDOW’s estimated market ratings have this classic mid-tier Big Ten matchup projected at Iowa -2.7.

The Hawkeyes have the number next to their name, on the brink of the theoretical cutoff for the College Football Playoff, and a path that suggests they could run the table and force their way in. However, they were also +14.5 to Ohio State a few weeks ago, and didn’t cover as a home underdog.

Both teams have gone to Washington and won, and each has edged Michigan, with Iowa’s road win more of a miracle.

Minnesota’s been blown out a couple of times, and likely needed their bye week in the worst way, after allowing 300+ rushing yards to Purdue. Meanwhile, Iowa probably wanted to play during their bye after trouncing Washington.

Those last two results, and fingers-crossed hope for Iowa to make a surprise run to the Playoff seems to have bumped this line up to where you should never want the Hawkeyes — asking them to win by more than one score against a similarly structured side.

Bet: Minnesota +7 (-112, DraftKings)

The Week 8 CFB RUMP:

Rice (+265)
Illinois (+280)
UCF (+210)
Minnesota (+205)
Northern Illinois (+160)

For the uninitiated:
Break 1.1 units into 11 separate 0.1-unit moneyline parlays.
The 10 combinations of 3-teamers, and 1 with all five.

San Diego State @ Colorado State (+1.5, 63.5)

It’s not a stretch to say that Colorado State’s defense is the worst in the country.

Good offenses have shredded the Colorado State defense, as veteran quarterbacks from BYU, UTSA, Oregon State, and Texas State have done whatever they wanted, as the Rams have allowed an opponent Success Rate of 58.8%.

Finally, a reprieve is coming.

The San Diego State offense is not in the same stratosphere as those mentioned above, ranked second-last in the PAC-12.

A second reprieve is coming for Colorado State, with the return of starting quarterback Hauss Hejny, who hurt his hamstring in the first half of the first game of the aforementioned 4-game skid.

In even better news for Fort Collins, the Aztecs defense has a poor 52% Success Rate allowed, further easing Hejny back into the lineup on a chilly night in Colorado. As part of an offense that couldn’t keep up with the good offenses, but can absolutely outscore the issues created by their own defense.

Bet: Colorado State ML (-105, DraftKings)

Virginia Tech @ Clemson (-2.5, 49.5)

James Franklin in a big game?

Fading him is one of the great college football traditions.

Franklin didn’t even get to do his usual practice of running up the score against inferior opponents, getting past Maryland and Boston College by one possession.

Three weeks ago, the Hokies got to crank up Metallica for a primetime Friday game and couldn’t beat Pitt and their backup quarterback, following that with a loss on the road to Cal… and their backup quarterback.

Getting a win last week over Georgia Tech (in a tough “spot” for the Yellow Jackets coming off a home upset win) isn’t doing much to impress.

Clemson’s had three virtual weeks of rest (bye, vs. Charleston Southern) since giving a strong effort against Miami, only to see the Hurricanes pull away, continuing the narrative that the program is in shambles.

The reality is, the Tigers aren’t what they once were and can’t compete with the top-10, but that’s not the matchup we have here.

Since turning the offense over to Tait Reynolds, who threw for 295 yards against Miami, Clemson’s analytics are respectable, and the defense is better than what the Hokies bring to the table.

Comparing output in their lone shared opponent, Clemson dominated Cal’s offense with JKS on the road, and Tech lost to his backup in Berkeley two weeks later. While the Tigers are well-rested, the Hokies finally get their bye next week, and might look like it.

Bet: Clemson -2.5 (-115, FanDuel)

Georgia State @ Arkansas State (+2.5, 58.5)

James Madison woke up and chose violence for the second time.

First, when he started the War of 1812.

The second, when the football team unleashed their forces on Georgia State, when it thought they were invading Harrisonburg to take Sun Belt supremacy.

The Dukes hit the Panthers with a sneak-attack in the form of a surprise onside kick, but they won in the trenches too, running for 250 yards on Georgia State. It was a thorough performance, befitting the conference powerhouse program.

But it doesn’t mean the Panthers aren’t the second-best team in the Sun Belt (or close to it). After all, 188 rush yards against the Dukes is the equivalent of winning a few trench battles as well.

All losing at JMU means is that Georgia State’s power rating gets arrested, halted for the moment, and, hopefully, it keeps the Panthers under the radar for their remaining conference games.

There’s no such thing as a silver medal for second in the Sun Belt East, but that honor could still add up to a few more wins against the spread this season.

Nothing we’ve seen from Arkansas State — wins over West Georgia, Kennessaw State, and Southern Miss — suggests it’s even a contender for our made-up silver medal.

Bet: Georgia State -2.5 (-108, DraftKings)

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It’s back-to-back weeks for Thursday Night Football matchups lined inside of a field goal, between possible contenders for a deep playoff run, and, if you squint real hard, maybe a Super Bowl LXI preview?

The Patriots actually were in the Super Bowl last season, while the Bears might have provided the best #content in the playoffs.

The difference between Patriots-Bears, and Seahawks-Broncos last Thursday, comes in what we expect the game to look like.

Even in hindsight, the three touchdowns that Seattle and Denver combined for seems like more than both deserved.

New England and Chicago should find the goings easier on an 60-degree evening at Soldier Field.

Patriots @ Bears (-3, 50.5)

Through three weeks of the NFL season, the streets were panicked about the play of Drake Maye.

Since Week 4, though, Maye is first in the NFL in 0.48 EPA/Play (in non-garbage time), Air Yards (10.4), and sixth in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected).

The funny thing is, outside of Air Yards, Maye’s metrics in the first three games weren’t actually terrible, but turnovers (six of his seven interceptions this season) killed his EPA/Play, and he wasn’t able to connect deep down the field against the Seahawks, Steelers, or Jaguars.

Against the Bears defense, who, after holding up against the Vikings, Eagles and Jets offenses, allowed Packers receivers to get behind the behind repeatedly and the Falcons to work their way back into a game from a trailing state.

Caleb Williams has played two full games, both in good weather/indoor conditions, and the Bears offense has cooked in both against the Panthers and Falcons.

So, why isn’t this total even higher?

By trend, both the Patriots and Bears are 2-4 to the Over, but Chicago’s four Unders all encompass Bears games without Williams and their Week 2 sloppy mess against the Vikings defense. Meanwhile, New England might have been forced into more offensive urgency, and a third Over in a row last week, had the Jets been able to create more offensive urgency (failing on two 4th-and-1s in Pats’ territory), and had drops (by AJ Brown) not shut down New England drives.

Both teams should be ready for a primetime shootout, and a total just over 50 isn’t high enough to scare us away from what profiles as a 27-24 type of game.

Bet: Over 50.5 total points (-115, DraftKings)

Player props

DeMario Douglas: Over 3.5 receptions (+112, FanDuel)

Even with the return of AJ Brown, the biggest benefactor to Mac Hollins and Romeo Doubs (13 targets combined in Week 4) being out, from an actual usage perspective, has been Douglas, with four passes caught on five targets in Week 5, and seven-on-eight last week.

Brown gets defensive attention, as the lone “star” in the receiving group, but multiple dropped passes against the Jets could mean that Maye looks away from Brown enough to go more to Douglas.

Eli Raridon: Longest reception — Over 9.5 yards (-115, Bet365)

The rookie tight end has caught a pass of 10+ yards in his last four games, and five total. A third-round pick, Eli Raridon caught passes for 15 yards per reception in his last season at Notre Dame, and is playing over 50% of the snaps in the role vacated by Austin Hooper (10 receptions of 10+ yards last season).

Caleb Williams: Over 4.5 rush attempts (+100, FanDuel)

The Patriots have faced two mobile quarterbacks this season: Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen, and while they held both in check on the ground, the Jaguars were in a blow-out game-state, and the Patriots came in with a plan for the danger of Allen getting loose. They won’t have the same game plan for Williams.

Coming off of a hamstring injury, Williams had no designed runs in the playbook against the Falcons, and didn’t scramble until five minutes to go in the fourth quarter after Atlanta had drawn to within eight points. That went without incident and Williams later used a quarterback sneak for this third credited rushing attempt.

His other two: A fumble and recovery, and the final kneel down.

Williams seems to have made it out of the game unscathed, and could go back to his usual, mobile self. Williams ran it 10 times in Week 1, and five more before getting hurt in Week 2.

Anytime touchdowns

DeMario Douglas (+320, FanDuel)

At better than 3-to-1, we’ll take a player who has scored three times in the two games without Hollins and Doubs. Douglas, commonly used as an underneath option out of the slot, scored from 38 yards out on Sunday.

Star slot-corner Kyler Gordon returned on Sunday, but played only 17 snaps.

Drake Maye (+340, DraftKings)

Maye scored on one out of every 25 snaps last season, but has just one on 34 rushing attempts this season. Rhamondre Stevenson is -115, but has scored in just two games, and TreVeyon Henderson’s lone touchdown was a broken long run up the middle.

With Bears’ middle linebacker, T.J. Edwards, out on Thursday, there could be more opportunities for a designed quarterback run in the red zone.

Kyle Williams (+700, FanDuel)

The Patriots designated deep-threat, Williams finished his 2025 rookie season with three touchdowns in his final eight games, and has one in five games played this season, amounting to 4-of-13 hit-rate (implied odds of +226). The Bears can be beat over the top and Maye’s better play of late has him looking deep.

Luther Burden III (+185, FanDuel)

The Williams-to-Burden connection in Week 1 and Week 6 was 13-for-13 receptions and targets. Burden’s second-year breakout season was put on hold with Williams injury, but with the bigger receiver, Rome Odunze, likely seeing more of Christian Gonzalez, and Carlton Davis out, Burden could be set for a big game.

Roschon Johnson (+245, DraftKings)

Kyle Monangai (often priced shorter than 2-to-1 to score) is out again, and Johnson’s slotted into his No. 2 running back role, scoring last week on one of 13 carries.

Before missing 2025 (two total carries), the 6’0, 230 lb., Johnson scored six times on 55 carries, and profiles as a good short yardage option. Plus, he’s caught eight passes on 10 targets in his first two games with a role in Ben Johnson’s offense.

Cole Kmet (+550, DraftKings)

In Week 1 and 6, Kmet has four catches on five targets (80%) from Williams, and a touchdown in Week 1 and a red-zone target in Week 6. In the other four games, Kmet has caught three passes on six targets (50%) and no touchdowns or red-zone targets. Three touchdowns in 18 total games played last season, equates to implied odds of +500, but in a high total game in good weather, that probability increases.

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Woof.

If you just describe the fundamental rules of standard NFL Survivor contests to a lay person, it doesn’t seem that hard.

Just pick ONE team to win each week?

How could that be hard?

Then the NFL season takes shape and, after just six weeks, 95% of entrants are out.

Free, for Yahoo! Sports, we look at the Survivor landscape ahead of Week 7, after the Rams and Colts took their turn in decimating the remaining field in Week 6:

NFL WEEK 7 SURVIVOR

How did the still-alive 5% manage to make it through the landmines each week?

We can figure out the proper path to Week 7, and parsing out the advantage that those who saved the Texans (and lived to tell about it) have over those who didn’t.

As for further weeks, we’re down to a one-and-done approach, that, if our singular pick this week loses, we’ll put wrap on Survivor season for 2026.

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As we often preach here at THE WINDOW, responsible betting means doing it for fun, in a way to augment one’s enjoyment and involvement in the sports we love to watch.

We can say this after the fact:

Week 7 in College Football never needed anything other than the product on the field, as the sport itself is what made it fun.

Yes, the devaluation of the regular season in the coming years with an absurd 24-team playoff will hurt these Saturdays.

Ohio State-Indiana was a slugfest (that we were BARELY on the wrong side of), while Notre Dame-BYU held drama even as the Cougars were cashing ATS with ease, and other games that were either easy wins, or easy losses, provided the requisite amount of intrigue.

Week 8 is a bit of a letdown on paper, so there’s only four games worthy of “Big Game” status, but, FREE, for Yahoo! Sports, here are the sides (and a total) to play ahead of this coming Saturday:

CFB WEEK 8 BIG GAME BETTING (Y!)

With so much to discuss from last week, we also look at how the landscape of college football was changed, through the lens of the betting market, as the Big 12 now can lay claim on a second CFP spot, and the Heisman race might have one more twist left in it.

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“When I get it right, great! I want you to be able to see my work and understand how I got there, when I don’t.”

In this week’s episode of THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic) looks back at a profitable Week 6 in the NFL, starting with a Monday Night Football game that acted as a reminder that even dumb teams, doing dumb things, can still cover point spreads against an undefeated team, if the line is high enough.

Why Commanders-49ers was a microcosm for much of went on during Sunday, starting with the point spread evaluation on the Texans-Jaguars, to the Titans pulling off a win over the Colts, and why you never know what you’re going to get with teams from the top (Rams), middle (Cowboys), and bottom (Saints) of the NFL.

Maybe you missed it?

• The NFL Betting Market “Glimpse” after Week 5

• Thursday Night Football: Seahawks-Broncos

• NFL Week 6: Survivor contest outlook

• NFL Week 6 betting: “The Sunday Best”

• NFL Week 6 props: “The Player Prop Express”

• Monday Night Football: Commanders-49ers

• College Football betting: The big games for Week 7

• College Football betting: The “Saturday 7” for Week 7

Then Matt looks back at how copious closing line value didn’t pay off in Ohio State-Indiana, Georgia State-James Madison, Kansas-Kansas State, and Wisconsin-UCLA, in Week 7 of college football. Plus, the Heisman Report has a buy-low bet worth adding to protect a change in the situation for Jeremiah Smith, and another handful of “secret” podcast-only bets for the weeknight games in college football.

It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!

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The Commanders needed to get out of dodge after last week’s overtime fiasco with the Giants.

Week 6 concludes with a game where most bettors won’t want anything to do with the underdog, as they take on the undefeated 49ers.

Free, for Yahoo! Sports, we look at what the line would have been if not for a couple of high-leverage plays last week:

MNF BETTING: COMMANDERS-49ERS (Y!)

Plus, we have three player props, with an alternate option (or a fourth) if a notable player gets scratched late.

The touchdown calculus could be all kinds of messed up with “Bill” and “Deebo” out for this one, so we’ll play on one ol’ reliable, and a trio of mid-to-long shots.

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So much goes into whether a derivative market bet cashes.

Jalen Hurts stays under his passing yardage if the Jaguars get one more first down to run the clock out and win by two. Instead, they don’t and things get wild in the final seconds, only for the Jaguars to win by two anyway.

An injury to Tre Harris hurts his chances of going over his receiving yardage total, while an injury to TreVeyon Henderson helps the chances of Rhamondre Stevenson to go over any of his prop lines.

Alas, a 4-6 Week 5 at least feels like things are going in the right direction, even as we wait for a couple bounces to go our way.

By the way, for our RATS, with TWO players going down with an early injury, have a look at your sportsbook to see if you got two of three legs voided, giving you a few bucks back on Mike Gesicki’s touchdown.

How did our fake fantasy team do last week?

4-6

Getting there…

Each Sunday, we pick out 10 players that are valuable bets to either over-perform or under-perform expectations. It’s way better than hoping everyone has a big game. With an eye on being profitable each week, and considering that a “win,” we assign each player to a fantasy football position, with our reasoning in easily-digestible point form.

QB1: Matthew Stafford — Over 23.5 pass completions (-102, FanDuel)

• Assumption of a blowout is why this line seems so low

  • BUT Stafford has been lined in the low-20s all season

  • Completions since Week 1’s Australia debacle for L.A: 22 (over 20.5), 30, 32, and 40

• Rams beat Cardinals by 17 points in Week 18 last season, and Stafford was 25-for-40

  • Stafford had 22 completions in three quarters of their earlier matchup

QB2: Michael Penix Jr. — Under 30.5 pass attempts (-102, FanDuel)

• Adjusted for garbage time and high variance plays, the Bears are 28th in EPA/Play and 31st in Success Rate against the run

  • Bears’ opponents have a successful run play 46.3% of the time

• Falcons have Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr.

  • Run game shortens game with running clock

• Good run game sets up play-action deep shots for larger chunk plays

• Bears offense can extend drives and take time off clock

RB1: Jonathan Taylor — Under 93.5 rushing yards (-115, Bet365)

• Taylor doesn’t have a 100-yard rushing game yet this season

  • No carries of longer than 24 yards

• Since allowing 102 yards to Breece Hall in Week 1, Titans’ run defense is third in our adjusted/weighted EPA/Play and fourth in Success Rate against

• Trailed from the first drive in Baltimore, but allowed just 73 rushing yards on 23 attempts by Derrick Henry

RB2: Ty Johnson — Over 15.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)

• Cashed easily with third-down weapon, Johnson, on Monday night

• Has caught all 10 passes Josh Allen has targeted him with

• Even with increase in yardage line, Johnson’s gone over this number in eight of his 11 games

WR1: Christian Watson — Under 74.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)

• This is the highest Watson has ever been lined

  • Fresh off of beating the Bears, and rookie safety Dillon Theineman deep repeatedly

• Watson’s long pass reception is lined at 28.5 yards

  • In three games he’s caught a deep ball, he’s gone over this total

  • Last season, he caught a long pass in five games, but went over 70 yards in four of them

• As bad as the Cowboys defense is, they’ve only allowed three receptions of over 28+ yards, in the same game at Houston (Jaylin Noel, Nico Collins), and a 61-yarder to Tez Johnson

• Watson can catch a long pass and not go over, but he can’t go over and not catch a long pass

WR2: Tetairoa McMillan — Under 69.5 receiving yards (-115, Bet365)

• The Lions were helpless against the Bryce Young —> Tetairoa McMillan combination

  • The Eagles have Quinyon Mitchell and Vic Fangio to force Carolina to beat them elsewhere

  • No. 1 receivers vs. Eagles:

    • Week 1: Terry McLaurin — 2 receptions, 14 yards

    • Week 2: Carnell Tate — 3 rec., 27 yds

    • Week 3: Rome Odunze — 3 rec., 44 yds

    • Week 4: Davante Adams — 4 rec., 32 yds (Nacua is really No. 1, but catches so many passes at the line of scrimmage, volume is impossible to defend, by a shutdown corner)

    • Week 5: Parker Washington had a big game out of the slot, but outside “X” receivers combined for 5 rec, 80 yds

• Jalen Coker returns after missing the Detroit game, and more than half of Week 3

  • Eight catches on nine targets in BOTH Week 1 and 2

WR3: Xavier Hutchinson — Over 1.5 receptions (-115, DraftKings)

• Heres a list of Hutchinson’s receptions this season: 3, 3, 3, 3, and 4.

  • He’s played as many as 67 snaps, and as few as 17

• Oddmakers haven’t adjusted Hutchinson’s total because Texans acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. this week, but…

  • He’s unlikely to take a full complement of snaps in his first game

  • He might not be good

• Jaguars are in the bottom-half of our common pass defense metrics

• Texans have gone from 56% pass-to-run in Week 1 in neutral game state, to 59% in Week 3 neutral game state to 62% in Week 5, despite winning comfortably

TE: Travis Kelce — Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)

• Off a bye, Kelce should be fresh

• Rashee Rice out, Tyquan Thornton out for season

  • Other top pass-catching options: Xavier Worthy, Jalen Royals

• Career vs. Chargers: 12.2 yards per reception, 67 yards per game

  • Usually faced Derwin James, he’s out for Sunday

FLEX: Kenneth Gainwell — Over 24.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)

• Gainwell facing his former team

• Against running backs in the receiving game, Steelers are bottom-7 or worse in targets, receptions, and yards

• Playing around 40% of the snaps all season, Gainwell had 27 and 28 scrimmage yards the last two games with Jalon Daniels at the helm

• Daniels’ targets to RBs: 16 of 61 (26%)

SUPER-FLEX: Geno Smith — Over 213.5 passing yards (-115, Bet365)

• Smith in the rain this season (vs. GB, vs. CLE):

  • Six yards per attempt on 71 pass attempts

• Smith in dry/indoor conditions:

  • 8.6 yards per attempt on 76 pass attempts

• Forecast on Sunday at kickoff: “Feels like” temperature — 61 degrees, sunny, clear

• Week 1 in 2025 vs. Patriots: 362 yards on 34 attempts (10.6 YPA)

• Since Week 2, the fewest pass attempts any quarterback has had vs. New England is 28

  • 28 attempts x 8.6 yards = 240.8 yards

BONUS:

RATS (Round-robin Anytime Touchdown Scoring) Parlay:

• Harold Fannin Jr (+230)

• Jalen Coker (+275)

• Juwan Johnson (+245)

• Tyler Higbee (+265)

• Keon Coleman (+260)

1.1 unit: 10 0.1-unit bet of threes, one 0.1-unit bet of all five.

*Odds derived from DraftKings

THE 🪜LADDER MATCH:

NEW feature, where we take a unit and split it up the ladder on a player prop!

Colston Loveland (🐻): Receptions (Mixed Sportsbooks)

• 0.5 units: 4+ receptions (+102, FanDuel)

• 0.3 units: 5+ receptions (+220, FanDuel)

• 0.15 units: 6+ receptions (+434, DraftKings)

• 0.05 units: 7+ receptions (+870, DraftKings)

Week 6 SGP+:

Omar Cooper Jr.: 40+ receiving yards (+400)
Laquon Treadwell: 4+ receptions (+300)
Blake Corum: 20+ receiving yards (+320)
Jalen Royals: 4+ receptions (+320)

~+35000 at Bet365 

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We’ve long called betting the NFL a more-entertaining, longer-drawn-out casino table game, spreading the anticipation of a bouncing roulette ball over the course of three hours.

You don’t get to pause time at the craps table, with the dice on its cubic edge, the way we get built-in breaks to assess our football bets, but they way things like Giants-Commanders, Broncos-Chargers, and 49ers-Seahawks went in Week 5, maybe we’d prefer the quick Band-Aid rip of rapid-fire rolling.

At least we could blame the gray-beard with a toothpick in his mouth at the end of the table. Oh wait, we kinda do. Only they’re wearing a headset.

You can judge your bets during the break before the fourth quarter (and all those above would have looked quite nice), or you can judge your process by how you do in the few “easy” results.

In Week 5, while the Titans got blown out (despite a massive line-move in their direction from +7.5 to +6), we cruised with the Vikings, Patriots, and Steelers. Plus, you can’t tease it any better than Jaguars -1.5 and Browns +8.5, given how those games finished.

Now, if someone could just make a kick in Bears-Packers… or an extra point for the Dolphins.

If there’s a theme to Week 6, it might be the underrated element of a key piece of team’s offensive lines being out.

Check out last week’s “Sunday Best” :

NFL WEEK 5 BEST BETS

Jets @ Patriots (-7.5, 43.5)

Excerpt from THE WINDOW’s (free) submission to Yahoo! Sports’ best bets of the week:

Drake Maye has a particular set of skills.

Maye’s quarterbacking “super-power” is two-fold: An ability to scramble and a nice deep-ball. During the Patriots’ two-game resurgence — wins over the Bills and Raiders, Maye ran 15 times for 79 yards, and was able to hit big shots against two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (both in the bottom-quarter of the league in Dropback EPA/Play and Success Rate).

This week looks a little trickier, and not just because the Jets are sixth and 12th in those metrics when adjusted for garbage time and turnovers.

Left tackle Will Campbell’s been upgraded from doubtful, but he and right tackle Morgan Moses are listed as questionable, on an offensive line that’s given up copious sacks at the best of times, with 47 during the regular season last year, and 11 in five games this year. Until recently, that might not be an issue against the Jets, but first-round pick David Bailey got home three times last week, and New York has 17 sacks and the seventh-best pass-rush win-rate in the league (according to ESPN).

The Jets defense struggles against the run, but with TreVeyon Henderson out, the Patriots will have to go back to the plodding-version of their run game with Rhamondre Stevenson, in an attempt to take the heat off Maye.

As for the Jets, Geno Smith must be staring at his weather app this week, with fingers crossed. The grim conditions for his two home games this season have tamped down his numbers, as his best games have come in beautiful summer weather at Tennessee and indoors against the Lions. While those defenses aren’t striking much fear, Smith’s bugaboo last season — interceptions — have been taken out of the equation this season completely.

On what should be crisp-but-sunny autumn conditions in Foxborough, Smith could replicate the nice day he had against the Patriots defense in Week 1 last season (24/34, 362 yards, TD, INT) before the Raiders offensive line (and season) fell apart. With a pass-block win-rate as good as their defensive line numbers, Smith should have the time and conditions to stay with Maye.

Bet: Jets +7.5 (-115, DraftKings)

Titans @ Colts (-7, 44.5)

We’re in the “catch a falling knife” zone with the Titans, as they’ve finally been pushed down under their preseason range of 30-45 in our estimated market ratings (EMR), falling below the Dolphins for the honor of “worst team in the NFL.”

Even if that’s just confirming what we all might have believed through the first month of the season, that floor creates a buy signal, depending on the opponent.

The buy-sign was up for “sharps” last week, when they bet the Titans down versus the Texans. Maybe they were a weak early?

Enter the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts were in a tough spot last week, coming off a trip to London and playing on the road, losing to Pittsburgh, but it doesn’t excuse that there’s not much to this team other than the hope Jonathan Taylor breaks a big run.

Taylor has just three runs of 20+ yards, and nothing over 24. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones has a 5.8 yards-per-attempt combined with 3:4 TD-to-INT ratio.

When we adjust for garbage time, fourth-down variance, and turnovers, the Colts are 28th in EPA/Play and 25th Success Rate allowed on defense, and it doesn’t get much better when you remove Week 1, where they got blasted by Baltimore.

We know the Titans are bad, but laying a full touchdown with Daniel Jones AND a bad defense is a recipe for long-term losing.

Bet: Titans +7 (-115, DraftKings)

Ravens @ Browns (+3.5, 42.5)

Here’s a quick explanation of the betting line for Ravens-Browns:

• Lamar Jackson healthy = Ravens rated in the high-60s in our EMR = BAL -7

• Lamar Jackson out = Ravens rated in the early-50s in our EMR = BAL -3.5

  • Note: Last week in Atlanta, Baltimore was rated in the low-40s, which we noted was an over-adjustment down (and if that rating returned, making this game a pick’em, we’d be on the Ravens), helping us to a win on Sunday night.

So, when this game opened with the Ravens as a 5.5-point favorite, it was the perfect marriage of the uncertainty about Lamar Jackson playing this week, and that middle-of-the-road rating landing in the no-man’s-land halfway-point between key numbers: +7 and +3.

With Jackson not practicing on Wednesday or Thursday, the line drifted down to Ravens -3.5. Could it drop further with confirmation of Jackson being out? Possibly, which would create some line value. However, if Jackson gives it a go, while the line will move back up, it’s hard to imagine the line getting up to even -6 with a compromised quarterback whose legs are so much of a factor.

As for the Browns, they might have been a botched punt operation away from getting the grimy win at the Jets last week, which would have made Cleveland 4-1 and likely boosted the Browns’ market rating from it’s current 34/100 — right in-between the Giants (Jameis Winston edition) and the Buccaneers (with Jalon Daniels).

Back home with the better defense than Baltimore’s (by our adjusted weighted EPA/Play and Success Rate), we’ll take anything over a field goal with the Browns.

Bet: Browns +3.5 (-115, DraftKings)

Bills @ Raiders (+5.5, 53.5)

The number has is teetering between +5.5 to +4.5, but hopefully that won’t matter.

We’ll never know whether getting out to LA-LA-land with his (excellent) Hollywood actress wife and a social-circle that probably doesn’t get to Orchard Park too often was what inspired a patented single-handed-win performance from Josh Allen, but the last time we saw the Bills’ quarterback win one on his own, at Jacksonville in the playoffs, things fell apart the next week.

The Bills defense is still terrible against the pass — the perfect matchup for Kirk Cousins after the Raiders offense couldn’t keep up with the Patriots on the road. Fellow veteran/immobile QB, Matthew Stafford was able to pick apart Buffalo, and the Raiders offense should get back to where it was trending before last week.

Allen’s heroics were mostly with his legs (and planned checkdowns to our prop-hero Ty Johnson), so it’s a considerably different matchup for the Raiders’ pass defense, after getting beat deep by Drake Maye last week.

The Bills aren’t the first to go from L.A. to Vegas and wake up with a hangover.

Bet: Raiders +5.5 (-115, FanDuel)

Cowboys @ Packers (-1.5, 52.5)

We’ll move this up from the “coin-flip” game status to give the Sunday-nighter more shine, even if it looks like we’re between a rock and a hard place with who to bet.

The Cowboys are an infuriating outfit.

If you watched them play last Thursday, you might wonder how Dallas ever wins.

Especially if you peruse social media in the aftermath.

If you watched the Cowboys play the previous Sunday in Houston, you might wonder how Dallas ever loses.

…and if you turned the game off about 10 seconds before it ended in Brazil against the Ravens.

The mercurial group is headed for a barely-above .500 record because of their wild swings in play-level.

We can’t predict that, but we can read the betting market to see:

• A) Where they were rated before the season (low-60s)

• B) Where they were rated before last week (low-60s)

• C) Where they are rated now (54/100)

By rule, we probably don’t want to assume Dallas ever exceeds the expectation of a playoff-calibre (60+) team, but lowering the bar makes it easier on the Cowboys to do so.

It didn’t help that Dallas was playing a wildly underrated Buccaneers team with a sneaky-good defense. The Packers aren’t either of those things.

Somehow Green Bay’s 3-2 and have a defensive difference-maker coming back soon, so the playoffs are still in play. However, part of THE WINDOW’s platform this season is that the Packers aren’t particularly good.

This season, the Packers have faced:

• Kyler Murray, gets hurt, Carson Wentz off the bench

• Geno Smith in the rain

• Jalon Daniels in his first start

• Tyson Bagent

Wait, we’re missing one…

…oh, right…

Michael Penix — 72% pass completion rate, 10.2 yards per attempt — in a blowout home loss to the Falcons.

The Packers’ defensive metrics are invalidated by who they’ve played and “how” they’ve played them, while also losing veterans (Edgerrin Cooper, Javon Hargrave) to season-ending injuries in back-to-back weeks.

When Green Bay is rated like a below-average team, we’ll steer clear from a Packers’ fade, but after beating the Bears last week, the market’s opened back up to the idea Green Bay is good (53/100), but we’re not.

Bet: Cowboys +1.5 (-114, FanDuel)

The RUMP:

The Round-robin Underdog Moneyline Parlay (RUMP) is a staple of THE WINDOW’s betting menu. In exchange for your promise to bet everything else in single-outcome wagers, we make this irresponsible parlay to try to win enough money to build a gold doubloon silo like we’re a young Scrooge McDuck:

But here’s the dirty, little secret: It’s actually a somewhat responsible bet. The RUMP is actually about making a 1.1-unit bet, trying to win any of three of the five underdogs for a modest payout at better than even-money… and if more than three underdogs win, well, so be it.

How it works

Take 1.1 units and split that into 11 bets - one 5-team parlay and the 10 permutations of 3-team parlays that those five teams create. At most sportsbooks, you can simply add those five teams to a betting ticket and select 3-leg parlay (10x) to register your 0.1 unit bets.

Who to play

• Texans (+125)

• Browns (+175)

• Jets (+275)

• Titans (+270)

• Raiders (+185)

How the odds look this week:

Note: PLEASE find a sportsbook that offers an early payout for when a football team takes a 17-point lead. The last thing you want to have happen is to watch an underdog take a big early lead only to have it, and your potential big win, evaporate.

“The Coin-flip game(s)”

Saints @ Giants (+1, 45.5)

I liked this game the first time I saw it when it was called, “Cardinals @ Giants” in Week 4.

Yes, the Saints are now being painted with the same brush as the Cardinals.

Let’s count the ways:

• 1-4 with an early-season road upset doing some HEAVY lifting in their perception

• Left tackle on IR

• Run game that takes away 0.12 Expected Points per play

• Quarterback’s “old” age is a hot topic

• REALLY good pass-catcher getting all the targets

• Rough defensive metrics

The one place where the Saints and Cardinals aren’t in lock-step is in the betting market:

Despite three straight home losses, the Saints haven’t bottomed out in the betting market, as evidenced by their rating (41/100) falling in the middle of their original range.

Meanwhile, you can see where the Giants were after Week 1 with Jaxson Dart, how far they fell before Week 4 against the Cardinals, and where they are now (32/100).

Are the Giants a good enough team to warrant their 3-1-1 record? Of course not, they’ve played a string of bad teams.

However, they’re doing so again this Sunday.

Bet: Giants ML (-104, FanDuel)

Bears @ Falcons (+1, 51.5)

Admittedly, the moving parts are dizzying, so let’s pull a Mike Tomlin and “report the news”:

The headline: “Caleb Williams is (expected) back!”

• The Bears move back up into the 60s in market power ratings

The sub-headline: “Michael Penix is OK and good to start!”

• The Falcons, who hit 47/100 in EMR before last week, fell to 41/100 on concern about Penix being out (and the line went to CHI -3), but are back to 47/100

Sub-headline No. 2: “Montez Sweat suspended under PED testing program”

• Absolutely nothing happens to the Bears’ rating

  • Despite Dayo Odeyingbo also being out

    • A week after Marcus Davenport retired

  • Despite TJ Edwards being out

  • Despite getting exposed in deep pass defense last week at Green Bay

With ribs and hamstrings notoriously finicky, both sides should be on edge that their quarterback can make it through the game, we’ll back the better defense (4th in adjusted/weighted EPA/Play), at home.

Bet: Falcons ML (+100, FanDuel)

“The Favorite(s)”

Cardinals @ Rams (-12.5, 51.5)

The Cardinals won one game, despite the second-quickest snap-to-throw ratio of Week 1, and the betting market just assumed we all had Arizona all wrong coming into the season.

• The Cardinals were +4 at home to Seattle, who were just -2.5 at Denver on Thursday night. No, Arizona is not just 1.5 points worse than the Broncos.

• The Cardinals were favored by 2.5 at the Giants. No, they’re not 4-5 points better than New York (even with Jameis Winston at the helm).

Since that win over the (now 0-5) Chargers, the offensive line has lost its anchor, left tackle Paris Johnson Jr., and their overall Pass Block Win Rate (30%) is worse than everyone but the Packers (and they’ve at least added to their O-line).

Arizona’s finally crept back into a preseason EMR range of 20-35, but at 31/100, that still feels high, since the only thing the Cardinals have to brag about is storming back to cover a Week 3 spread at San Francisco, when they trailed by 17 in the third quarter.

Defensively, the Cardinals are 26th in our adjusted metric outlook, but only the Cowboys are worse against the pass by EPA/Play. They do better in Success Rate, but against a Rams offense where Matthew Stafford is happy to throw on almost every down and who are capable of the explosive play if you’ll give it to them, 40+ points should be in play.

Bet: Rams -12.5 (-108, FanDuel)

“Gotta bet the big international game”

Texans @ Jaguars (-2.5, 42.5)

With the absence of a headliner game, we’ll slot Texans-Jaguars here, as it might be the best matchup of the week, even if a crucial divisional matchup is unbecoming of being jettisoned overseas.

What it does, is create the mythology that there’s some home-field advantage in favor of the Jaguars, who performed in such a disorderly fashion in the land of Buckingham Palace that they should have lost to an Eagles team with half their original depth chart absent. One year after getting annihilated by the Rams, before they began their 9-game winning streak.

The Texans finally won a game last week, and while we shouldn’t take much from any result against the Titans, it might have kick-started the belief that Houston can track down the Jaguars in the AFC South.

The biggest issue, though, is that Jacksonville lost their starting left tackle, Anton Harrison, and now Walker Little has to deal with the combination of Danielle Hunter and, Defensive Player of the Year betting favorite, Will Anderson. Given how much trouble Trevor Lawrence had with Jalen Carter bearing down on him, how can we consider the Jaguars any better than even with the Texans? Other than their record, that is.

Bet: Texans +2.5 (+100, DraftKings)

6-point teaser of the week (-120, Bet365)

Buccaneers +8.5 / Chiefs -1.5

Tampa Bay is an interesting play at +2.5, in what looks to be its last game before Baker Mayfield returns (and the Buccaneers market rating gets jacked back up), as Tampa hasn’t seen market perceptions shoot up after beating the Cowboys, but using them in a teaser — pushing them up through key numbers +3 and +7 — is appealing. That’s because it challenges the Steelers to win by two scores on the road, when they haven’t won in two chances (blown out in New England, at Cleveland).

The line for the Chargers-Chiefs has come down from -8.5 to -7.5, and all I can say to those willing to back L.A. at this point is “if that’s how you want to live your life…”. If the line had moved the other direction, we wouldn’t have Kansas City as a teaser option. Maybe the Chargers can keep the game around the prescribed point spread, as they have in the three other instances where they’ve been underdogs this season, but we’d still win with almost any patented Chiefs’ one-possession win. If it even comes to that.

“Total” waste of time

Panthers @ Eagles (+3.5, 38.5)

The news about a blood clot keeping Jalen Hurts out of this game (hopefully he gets healthy quick) has thrown a wrench into the point spread market for this one, so we’ll use a premise usually reserved for reacting to this type of situation on the betting line, but with regards to the total.

If you’re disinterest in backing the Eagles anymore was because you don’t trust Hurts to create efficient offense and be accurate out of the pocket, why would his removal from the equation make you less interested in Philadelphia’s offense?

Tanner McKee has been with the Eagles since being drafted in the sixth round in 2023, starting in Week 18 the last two seasons, combining to go 48-for-81, 510 yards, three touchdowns, and just one interception. The key element being that Philadelphia was willing to have him throw 40+ times.

If you watched the Panthers’ last game, you know that Cris Collinsworth was concerned that Carolina, a mediocre-at-best defense, wasn’t able to get pressure on Jared Goff, even in a winning cause. The 6’6 pocket-passer, McKee, might have the time to run the Eagles’ offense as it was meant to be done, with, hopefully, the return of DeVonta Smith (hamstring).

Carolina’s willing to throw it around, too. Attempting 40 passes per game, with offensive play-caller Brad Idzik letting Bryce Young rip it enough to lead the league in yards per game.

The Eagles defense has been vulnerable in the secondary, and, had the Jaguars been able to score from the 1-yard-line on two separate occasions last week (instead of failing miserably), they might have scored 30 points instead of the 16 Jacksonville scored before their game-winning field goal.

Bet: Over 38.5 total points (-115, FanDuel)

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