Charts of the Week:

Quote of the Week:

“The best way to catch a knuckleball is to wait for it to stop rolling and pick it up.”

— Bob Ueker

Reads of the Week

Foreign Policy – China’s Overcapacity Has a Mind of Its Own

WSJ – Self driving electric dump trucks for mines

Listens of the Week

The Knowledge Project – The Science of Doing Your Best Work

Founders – James Garfield

Watches of the Week

Monetary Matters – Steve Hou talking about the compute curve

CNBC – Warren Pies on Closing Bell

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Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

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Charts of the Week:

Quote of the Week:

“The man, though, whom you should admire and imitate is the one who finds it a joy to live and in spite of that is not reluctant to die.”

― Seneca

Reads of the Week

• My mate Mat Casey with a great piece on US politics

• My other mate Jacob Shapiro with a piece that is constructive on France (is that even legal?)

  Listens of the Week

• On the Tape – James Aitken

• Daily Dots – Zach and I had a good one Thursday

Watches of the Week

• Trevor Hall with Michael Howell making me wish I was in London

• PTJ on CNBC

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Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

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Charts of the Week:

Quote of the Week:

“Two points in the Stoic system deserve special mention. One is a careful distinction between things which are in our power and things which are not. Desire and dislike, opinion and affection, are within the power of the will; whereas health, wealth, honour, and other such are generally not so. The Stoic was called upon to control his desires and affections, and to guide his opinion; to bring his whole being under the sway of the will or leading principle, just as the universe is guided and governed by divine Providence.”

― Marcus Aurelius

READS OF THE WEEK

• Works in Progress – China’s Growth Machines (Great Read)

• SCMP – China to build rail tunnels in Qatar

LISTENS OF THE WEEK

• Founders – The Tycoons

WATCHES OF THE WEEK

• Thoughtful Money – Neil Howe

• BG2 – Jensen Huang

• Going Nuclear

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Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

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Charts of the Week:

Quote of the Week:

“Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”

— Sun Tzu

READS OF THE WEEK

• Difference between open- and closed-minded people (FS Blog)

• FT – How AI Tempts the Lazy Mind

LISTENS OF THE WEEK

• Macro Hive – Jay Pelosky

• Hidden Forces – Rana Foroohar

WATCHES OF THE WEEK

• Me yapping about why rates have not broken anything yet

• AI winners folks are missing – Excess Returns – Michael Baron

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Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

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The Emerald Vol 6 The Electric Ecoystem

5.22MB ∙ PDF file

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That is all for this week! If you find yourself wanting more, you can sign up for The Cascade (this letter is about 20% of The Cascade and the BIG10 Portfolio is in the other 80%) or The Emerald at pineconemacro.com.

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Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

The Emerald 2025 Vol 5 Offshore

4.92MB ∙ PDF file

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That is all for this week! If you find yourself wanting more, you can sign up for The Cascade (this letter is about 20% of The Cascade and the BIG10 Portfolio is in the other 80%) or The Emerald at pineconemacro.com.

Become a Client

Share Pinecone Weekly Brief

Check out Pinecone Passport

Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

Read This Week's Letter

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The Emerald - Glutless

2.66MB ∙ PDF file

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That is all for this week! If you find yourself wanting more, you can sign up for The Cascade (this letter is about 20% of The Cascade and the BIG10 Portfolio is in the other 80%) or The Emerald at pineconemacro.com.

Become a Client

Share Pinecone Weekly Brief

Check out Pinecone Passport

Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

Charts of the Week:

Quote of the Week:

“Instead of boasting or moaning, rest content knowing that you are a small part of the universe, and treasure the moment of eternity that you have been given.”

— Marcus Aurelius

Reads of the Week

FT on the AI slowdown (Dario, Sam, and Elon all agree)

Telegraph (AEP) on why Trump’s Venezuela oil deal is a fool’s errand

Listens of the Week

Jacob Shapiro – great show on climate/El Niño

Macro Hive – Bilal talking about how he uses AI

Latest Daily Discernment from me

Watches of the Week

Yours truly with Patrick on The Market Huddle

Some Oliver Anthony Music

PMR Website

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Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

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Charts of the Week:

Quote of the Week:

“One of the causes of the troubles that beset us is the way our lives are guided by the example of others; instead of being set to rights by reason we’re seduced by convention.”

― Seneca

READS OF THE WEEK

• Nazem’s (Long Arc News) great 3 parter starts here – A Valuation Is an Opinion. Debt Is a Schedule.

• FT – Manager of Norway’s SWF proposes slashing US Treasury holdings

  LISTENS OF THE WEEK

• Must Founders on Henry Singleton (lots on capital allocation)

• More Founders - Napoleon

WATCHES OF THE WEEK

• PBS Frontline from 1999 on the Asian Financial Crisis (hat tip to Nazem’s great piece from reads of the week)

PMR Website

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Check out Pinecone Passport

Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

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Charts of the Week:

Quote of the Week:

“A man who has committed a mistake and doesn’t correct it, is committing another mistake.”

— Confucius

READS OF THE WEEK

• NYT – Companies can tell investors less under proposed SEC rules

• Jacob Shapiro on US/Canada

• Louis-Vincent Gave on US/Canada

LISTENS OF THE WEEK

• Macro Hive – Jon Turek

• OPM – Warren Pies

WATCHES OF THE WEEK

• Me on Benny & The Squirrel

• Me on Competent Investor Podcast

• 2.5 hrs on the Silk Road

PMR Website

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Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

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Charts of the Week:

Quote of the Week:

“We may have knowledge of the past but cannot control it; we may control the future but have no knowledge of it.”

— Claude Shannon

READS OF THE WEEK

• NYT on Victor Niederhoffer who passed away

• SCMP – China unveils measures to boost weak consumption

LISTENS OF THE WEEK

• I started a new almost daily short form podcast

• Founders – Bob Dylan

• Capital Allocators – Pre-Mortems

WATCHES OF THE WEEK

• Benny & the Squirrel – Brent talking about how Houston is better than Kansas

• Monetary Matters - Luke

• Daily Discernments – the new show

PMR Website

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Disclosure: Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is an independent research firm. Pinecone Macro’s letters are based upon information gathered from various sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. There are risks in investing. Any individual report is not all-inclusive and does not contain all of the information that you may desire in making an investment decision. You must conduct and rely on your own evaluation of any potential investment and the terms of its offering, including the merits and risks involved in making a decision to invest. The information in this letter is not intended to be, and shall not constitute, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or investment product or service. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, and Pinecone Macro Research, LLC assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this report. There is risk in trading markets. Pinecone Macro Research, LLC is not an investment advisor. The ideas and trades I share are my own and are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the information in making any investment. You should always check with your licensed financial advisor to determine the suitability of any investments.

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I have been kicking around the idea of doing a quick ALMOST DAILY video series for a long time and finally pulled the trigger today.

I will of course still be doing The Daily Dots with Zach on a daily basis and many of you will of course prefer to just keep watching/listening to that for longer form content with the banter and the back and forth. On the days I fly solo without Zach - Dots and Discernments will be about the same (like today).

On other days I may get to a couple things we do not discuss on Dots and the biggest difference is these will be way shorter than Dots with the aim of about 15 minutes. I will have these sent to podcast catchers for my Taylor Made Macro podcast as well (may take a few days to get started).

I will probably make these 2-3 times per week given there are some days where there is nothing worth talking about (thus discernment!) - so do not expect 5 per week. If you think this does not suck - share it.

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