It contains explainers on little-known casino moves, wild swings in Gina’s personal and professional life, and a decent amount of hijinks. Oh, also there are lots of descriptions of the eccentricities found in advantage players. Stuff like: every AP has a pair of cargo pants, one guy had to drink if he was going to be around any girls, and one partner didn’t bother to offer any condolences after learning of a death in the family. If you know some APs, and you read this book, it’s pretty constant head nodding of the “Oh yeah, that checks out” variety.

There is a theme that is recurring throughout the memoir, which is that the homes, the casinos, the edges, the teammates, the boyfriends… are all temporary. Some of that is attributable to the nature of casino games that appear, are exploited, and then have to tighten up. But Gina also describes the inherent difficulty of continuous working stable relationships given the factors at play. Ground rules are unspoken because everyone incorrectly believes they’re on the same page. Money is involved. Egos are involved. Trust takes a long time to earn and yet can be lost quickly.

I enjoyed this section about the end of one of these relationships.

Besides being hardworking, what James, Stalker, and I had in common

was that we were not good communicators when there was conflict. I feel safe

from being held liable for making that statement. Up until this night the worst

conflict we had as a crew was deciding how much money to give Tara, which

fell on me.

After I took myself out of the conversation, it was decided we would have

two chops—one for before Stalker started working and one after.

I have a handful of strong regrets from my career—mistakes I made that

resulted in heat where there otherwise wouldn’t have been, like when I didn’t

leave the Rio game early. The thought of settling my lawsuit with Ellis Island

Casino and Metro instead of going to court still bothers me. But my biggest

regret, my biggest personal failing in twenty-three years of advantage play,

happened that night at the Peppermill. Stalker was a mentor, friend, and protector.

I was a shortsighted, novice hole-card reader who was lucky to fall in

the laps of two of the greatest players.

James and I went to Atlantic City a few days later. I found a hole-card

game at the Borgata Casino and excitedly called Stalker to tell him. He knew

someone who worked at the Borgata who could get us the dealer’s schedule,

just as we’d done at the MGM. Stalker didn’t answer my call. He didn’t call

me back. Weeks later in Vegas we spoke once more, uncomfortably, and then

never again. He was done with me.

There is a Netflix doc about the treasure, which is very interesting. Amazingly, the doc did not include the actual finder of the treasure, who has maintained a lot of privacy in the aftermath.

But the finder did record a Youtube video in 2019 going through what he believed were cognitive biases common among treasure searchers.

Read more

The next episode is about cheating in chess, so I recently watched the Netflix documentary “Untold: Chess Mates.” It is about the insinuation by Magnus Carlsen that Hans Niemann cheated in their 2022 match.

Before I got into this episode I had only one half-thought related to the most famous alleged chess cheating incident, and it was “I think there was a butt plug maybe?”

It turns out that the resolution of the allegation is very much relevant for the upcoming podcast episode.

The documentary is solid and to the point. It’s worth a little more than an hour of your time.

The guest for the upcoming episode is not mentioned in the doc, but his work is used by FIDE in reviewing potential incidents of cheating.

Read more

Subscribe now

I particularly enjoyed their recent discussion of …

Read more

This video version is available only to Premium Substack subscribers. It’s no longer available in the public feed.

I’ll be rolling out more archive episodes in video form, and also putting more of the catalogue behind the paywall.

Read more

Subscribe to Casinos Hate Winners

I checked all the Pennsylvania-licensed online casinos to find out how much welcome bonuses are worth and show that it depends a lot on the decisions made.

One bonus with the same headline in various casinos may have a different real value. The reason is that every casino has its own wagering requirements, restricted games, and hidden terms. However, the very same bonus may have different value, not only because of terms, but also because of how you play it.

And now, let’s break it down with a specific real example in 2026. To do that, I gathered official info from the Gaming Control Board and found all the licensed casinos. Then, I checked all the welcome bonuses from the list and modeled different game scenarios for each of them.

First of all, there is the best-case scenario, when the player aims to maximize profit and is ready to take risks. The worst-case is when the person makes the wrong decisions when wagering promo offers. And finally, there is the average scenario. This makes it possible to compare the maximum possible value of every bonus at every casino, as well as to see how it differs when you change the scenario.

For each calculation, I ran 100K to 1M simulations [1 This is called the Monte Carlo Method. The number of simulations here varies to keep the statistical error below 5%. Overall, I ran 47.6M simulations, while 44 of them were on 1M.], meaning I played through each bonus that many times to find the average value. Why go to all this trouble? The reason is that the formula for the EV, which is bonus - (wager x house edge), stops working correctly after a certain point. The higher the wager and variance, the worse the formula does its job.

One important detail: According to the formula, you always play through the entire sum, but that’s not actually true. Sometimes, you will run out of money before you even complete the requirements. The formula breaks down because it assumes the full amount gets wagered. If the balance runs out, the house edge does not apply to the amount you never wager.

Casinos below are listed in alphabetical order. All their welcome offers can be divided into 3 groups – deposit bonuses, lossbacks, and free spins. Buckle up. We are going deep.

Bally Bet

It is actually not that hard to understand that wagering the 100% lossback may become profitable. But there is one important detail for this offer. According to the terms, it’s not necessary to lose $500 to trigger the 100% cashback. It will be enough to reach more than a 90% net loss. That’s why we used a $460 bet, so that you lose $460 and still get $500. That’s even more than 100% back, roughly 110%.

Now, there are a couple of options to wager the bonus. First, the most profitable one is to place the whole bet on a single straight-up number in roulette. The second is to try roulette with small bets on red or black, but the offer will become useless. The difference between the highest and lowest averages is too big.

bet365

The offer here gives you a classic 100% deposit match up to $1,000 and up to 100 free spins for 10 days in addition. You will have 10 reveals with 50, 75, or 100 spins, which gives a total of 500 to 1,000 spins. To complete the requirements, you will need to wager the bonus amount 15 times. And it is a good example of why the turnover x house edge formula does not work.

In a perfect world, the full $2,000 goes on one number, but the casino has separate bonus and deposit balances. And it is not possible to bet $1,000 either, because the terms cap each bet at 10% of the bonus or deposit amount. This is a classic pitfall in casinos. I didn’t test this one specifically, but on offshore platforms, they will accept an oversized bet and then simply void the offer if it wins.

Roulette bets are excluded from wagering, so I took the Le Bandit slot with a $50 bet for calculations. We can see that the maximum EV is $820, but that comes at a price: in my simulations, 86% of runs end below the deposit. The spins are also counted here. The terms say the value is $0.10 and give probabilities of 50%, 35%, and 15% for 50, 75, and 100 spins, respectively. On average, it gives 660 spins and adds value of $64.

We can also see that if you play the exact same slot with the minimum bet, the EV lines up with the formula. Overall, whatever style you choose, the bonus is still profitable if the Le Bandit has the maximum RTP setting.

Read more

In a piece last week I said that states have an interest in regulating gambling because the negative effects are felt locally.

On the other hand…

Read the recent 39 state petition to the Supreme Court related to the various Kalshi litigation. You might get through about five paragraphs before you realize how stupid my idea sounds.

First, here are some unavoidable facts about the current state-based regulation regime:

1. By levying taxes, states have become partners with the sportsbooks. Actually, the states get paid before any OSB equity holder gets paid. The states also seem to realize they are running a protection racket, because their tax demands keep increasing. This is good work if you can get it.

2. The sportsbooks have an obvious interest in dealing only to the profitable customers. Which means they ban or limit winners. The states have co-signed this practice both implicitly and explicitly1. Even though the practice can be justified for business reasons, it is so obviously unfair that the people who open their mouth to defend it nearly always resort to obfuscation and deception when doing so. They will not say the simple reason they ban and limit winners2, so they call these customers “market manipulators.” Which is to say that they appropriate the very sense of fairness that they are violating - and weaponize it against the banned customers.

Now I will excerpt from the states’ petition:

The prediction markets’ aggressive theory of preemption not only impugns the States’ sovereignty but also leads to disastrous consequences for the States’ citizens. Over the years, States have developed comprehensive schemes to protect their residents. From robust licensing schemes and exclusion lists to minimum-age requirements and spending limits, States aim to guard against problem gambling. The aggressive preemption theory pushed here threatens to wipe out all those critical protections.

And then:

More practically, the issue has on-the-ground consequences. The States have developed, from their long experience as gambling regulators, comprehensive regulations designed to protect their citizens and ensure a functioning market. States prevent minors from betting, create exclusion lists to assist gambling addicts, apply consumer protections to prevent unfair practices and protect the integrity of sports, limit gambling spending, and more. As the CFTC acknowledged just two years ago, States possess the “particular expertise” to “address[] particular risks and concerns associated with gambling.”

Read more

It’s funny, if you ask me: I’d rather see them stay, but if they got shut down by the Supreme Court tomorrow, our share prices would pop.

DKNG’s stock price is down almost 50% year to date, even while they are now able to do business in new markets through their prediction market product.

Subscribe now

Read more

Not great!

The problems with production are roughly: 1) Lots of guests don’t want to give…

Read more

Read more

Capital Allocators had an episode with investment managers using AI in their orgs. The episode was mostly stuff about AI writing memos and similar1, but the last guest (Jon Webster, CPP Investments) talked about their experience in areas where AI was not helping. Because I think that there is more value in looking for things AI is bad at, that was my favorite part of the episode:

“Technology never confers a lasting competitive advantage because whatever is available to you is available to everybody else. If you believe that as a base proposition, then what this technology can do is either simplify or undermine your existing competitive advantages.

Our competitive advantages are organizational EQ. It’s not to dismiss the IQ half of the equation. We are very bright people, think carefully about investment thesis.

Our advantages are ultimately in the trust, the relationship, the standing, the patience, Clayton Christensen, law of conservation of attractive profits. When one part of the value chain is attacked, then value accrues to the adjacent parts of the value chain. If IQ is under attack, value is going to accrue to EQ.”

Subscribe now

Read more

I’m not a mathematician so apologies if my characterization isn’t perfect, but I think that’s roughly what happened.

But that same thing is kind of happening everywhere. As an example, consider computer vision for sports.

Read more

Check your preferred podcast feed for the new episode, which is about Magic the Gathering Pro Tour Hall of Famer Zvi Mowshowitz.

He talks about:

• The traits shared by Magic players that make them good at trading

• Pro Tour Tokyo, where he came in first

• Moving on to sports betting

• Trading at Pinnacle Sports

• DFS

• His time trading for the quant firm Jane Street

• Predictions for AI doom

  Subscribe now

Comment on the Newsletter Itself

It took me some time to figure out how the premium newsletter should be structured. I played around with various ideas including releasing episodes early to subscribers. But very few people actually listened to the episodes during the early release window, so that seemed dumb.

Eventually I landed on just paywalling the archive. This makes the most sense because it doesn’t constrict the growth of the show. It can always be discoverable to new listeners. However, then when the new listeners do eventually go on the full archive binge, which happens, they eventually will have to decide if they want to pay.

If you are one of the subscribers, the best way to find the old episodes is to just search “ARCHIVE” in this newsletter’s feed.

I have also decided to keep the new episodes in the main Apple / Spotify feeds just so that the newsletter can going forward be a place only for premium content.

So to clarify:

• Old episodes > Substack

• New episodes > Your preferred podcast feed

As the total catalogue grows, hopefully eventually there will still be 20 or so free episodes and 50 or more paywall episodes.

Some of the above makes natural sense, and some of it is the best I have right now. We’ll see how it plays out.

On Computer Vision

I saw a few things on X recently that seemed interesting for sports predictions.

Read more

Read more

In this episode Citrini discusses how he arrived at thematic investing, the process he uses to find baskets of stocks, and also what it’s like to write up a thesis for tens of thousands of subscribers.

Find Citrini on Substack.

Find Citrini on Twitter.

Read more

Captain Jack's Youtube Channel:

Read more

Captain Jack's Youtube Channel:

Captain Jack's new venture:

https://unabated.com

Ray Marino:

https://www.bookmaker.eu/

Frank B. talks about dice control on GWAE:

Follow the show on Twitter: @halfkelly

Email the show: riskofruinpod@gmail.com

Read more

Read more

Last week I wrote about using Gemini inside Anti-gravity as an alternative to Claude Code. I knew that Google would be rolling out something beyond the Gemini Flash 3.1 that I mentioned in the post, and I kind of assumed it would be better. Well Google did roll out a new model last week - Flash 3.5 - but the reviews are mixed.

I have seen people say that…

Read more

Subscribe now

The signs of AI lowering the bar for automation in the betting markets is everywhere. Per John Collison this same thing is happening more broadly.

Odd Lots · Stripe’s John Collison on How Agentic Commerce Will Reshape the Internet
Listen from 47:11

“We’re very excited for the intelligence explosion. And so in our pockets of the internet, we are seeing much more entrepreneurship happening that shows up in the numbers. So to give you a sense, new business creation on stripe in Q1 was up 71% year over year. That business generally is not growing back quickly. It’s like the leading edge numbers are seeing much more business creation. You see this in other numbers too. So the app store like number of app launches was quite flash for many, many years and now it’s seeing kind of similar growth to that. And so there are going to be many, many fruits of the intelligence explosion. But we get quite excited about the idea that you have more people creating companies. And maybe you get more dynamism, right? We talked about some of the effects where you know you’ll maybe see more price competition. If you work in a big company and you think, hey, the way we are doing this is really silly. I could do it so much better. The bar to you being able to quit the company and develop a competing better offering is now lower because you have more power available to you.”

Read more