It has been a wild 24 hours in the crypto market.

Yesterday, Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, suffered a devastating security breach involving more than $6.3 billion in crypto assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies.

This is officially the largest hack in crypto history, surpassing the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025. Needless to say, this is a major setback for the industry.

But there is some encouraging news.

Binance has committed to covering the losses, while stablecoin issuers, blockchain intelligence firms, law enforcement and other industry participants are working together to trace, freeze and recover stolen assets.

The response highlights both the security challenges the crypto industry still faces and how much its incident-response capabilities have developed.

Let’s break down what happened, how Binance is responding and what this means for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

🔐 What Happened at Binance?

According to Binance, its initial investigation suggested that the breach may have involved a compromised laptop belonging to a DevOps engineer. However, further investigation uncovered additional points of compromise. The attack appears to have involved Binance’s transaction-processing infrastructure, allowing unauthorized withdrawals across multiple blockchains.

Binance says it has found no evidence that wallet private keys were leaked. The exchange is continuing its investigation and working with law enforcement and blockchain security firms to determine exactly how the attack unfolded.

This was clearly a sophisticated operation.

Blockchain intelligence firms have also identified similarities to previous attacks attributed to North Korean hacking groups, although the investigation into responsibility remains ongoing.

💰 Binance Commits $6.34 Billion to Cover Losses

One of the biggest questions following the attack was whether Binance had enough financial resources to absorb the losses.

The exchange says it does.

Binance has reportedly reserved more than $6.34 billion in company funds to cover the incident.

Of that amount:

• $5 billion is already held in the same digital assets affected by the breach.

• The company is acquiring the remaining assets through market and OTC transactions.

• Approximately $3 billion in stolen assets has been frozen with help from industry partners.

• Binance continues working to recover additional funds.

The exchange has emphasized that it intends to cover the losses without passing them on to customers. That’s an important commitment, although the full recovery process and technical investigation are still underway.

🤝 The Crypto Industry Comes Together

One encouraging development has been the coordinated response from across the crypto ecosystem. Stablecoin issuers including Tether, Circle and Ripple moved to freeze stolen assets where their token controls allowed them to do so.

Blockchain intelligence companies are tracing transactions, while exchanges and other industry participants are assisting with recovery efforts.

This cooperation matters.

A hack of this magnitude could have far-reaching consequences for confidence in the industry. It also highlights the need for stronger operational security, transaction authorization controls and real-time monitoring. The technology continues evolving, and security standards must evolve with it.

📉 Market Impact: Bitcoin Holds Up Better Than Expected

As expected, the hack triggered fear across the crypto market.

Bitcoin and altcoins were already experiencing weakness before the incident, and the news added another wave of selling pressure. The broader financial markets have also been under pressure, with stocks experiencing a significant pullback.

But here’s what I find interesting:

Relative to the magnitude of this hack, Bitcoin has held up surprisingly well.

We’re talking about more than $6 billion in stolen crypto assets. That is an enormous amount of money. Yet Bitcoin continues testing important technical support levels rather than experiencing a complete collapse in its market structure. This is something worth paying close attention to.

📊 Bitcoin Retests the 50-Week Moving Average

Analyst Blockchain Backer highlighted an interesting observation about the timing of the hack.

Bitcoin had already been pulling back for several weeks before this event pushed prices toward a retest of the 50-Week Moving Average.

Remember, Bitcoin recently reclaimed this moving average for the first time in months. Now the market is testing whether that former resistance can hold as support. This is an important technical battle.

If Bitcoin successfully holds the 50-Week Moving Average, it would strengthen the case that the broader bullish trend remains intact. However, a sustained breakdown could signal that a deeper correction is developing.

📈 Daily RSI Approaching Oversold Conditions

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin’s RSI is approaching oversold territory. That’s worth watching.

After weeks of declining prices, momentum is becoming increasingly stretched to the downside. This could create the conditions for a relief rally or short-term bounce.

But remember, oversold conditions don’t guarantee an immediate reversal. Bitcoin can remain oversold during periods of intense selling pressure. What we want to see is buyers stepping in, momentum improving and Bitcoin reclaiming nearby resistance levels.

🐂 Weekly MACD Still Favors the Bulls

The weekly chart continues showing a more constructive picture than the daily timeframe.

Despite the recent selloff, the weekly MACD remains bullish, although momentum is slowing.

This is important because the weekly timeframe helps us understand the broader trend rather than short-term volatility. We’ve been tracking Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe bullish structure for months. And while this hack has certainly created uncertainty, the broader bullish thesis has not necessarily been invalidated.

But there is an important condition.

🎯 Higher Highs and Higher Lows

For Bitcoin to maintain a healthy bull-market structure, we need to continue seeing:

Higher highs and, most importantly, higher lows.

This is how sustainable uptrends develop. A correction after a strong rally is normal. Even a sharp correction doesn’t automatically mean the bull market is over. But if Bitcoin begins breaking below previous major swing lows, we would need to reassess the broader trend. That’s why I’m watching the current support levels so closely.

The bulls need to defend them.

🔮 What Happens Next for Bitcoin and Altcoins?

There are two primary scenarios I’m watching over the next couple of weeks.

🟢 Bullish Scenario: Bitcoin Holds Support and Bounces

Bitcoin successfully defends its major support levels, including the 50-Week Moving Average. Daily RSI begins recovering from near-oversold conditions.

Buyers return, Bitcoin starts moving higher and the broader crypto market follows. If stocks also stabilize and recover, that could help improve overall risk sentiment.

This would be the ideal scenario for bulls.

🔴 Bearish Scenario: Support Breaks

Bitcoin fails to hold its key support levels and selling pressure accelerates. The broader stock market continues weakening, keeping investors in a risk-off mindset.

In this scenario, Bitcoin could experience a deeper correction, with altcoins potentially suffering larger percentage declines.

This is why risk management and patience remain so important. Don’t let fear or emotion dictate your decisions.

Follow the data, watch the support levels and let the market confirm its next move. Stay patient.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Discover the power of staking and liquidity pools with FortisX. This platform provides easy and secure ways to earn passive income on your crypto. It is fully audited by CertiK and SEC registered.

Kalshi - you probably know Kalshi for prediction markets, but now you can also trade crypto perps with a free $25 bonus. You can trade on crypto up or down with up to 6x leverage, meaning you can put down $100 and control a $600 position. It’s the first CFTC-regulated perps exchange in the country, which means no VPN and no offshore nonsense to deal with. To claim your $25 bonus, all you do is make your first $50 trade through my sign up link.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Chris Giancarlo, former CFTC Chairman and author, joined me to discuss his new book, the current state of crypto legislation in the U.S., and whether the CLARITY Act still has a chance of passing in 2026. We also explored how the SEC and CFTC are providing regulatory guidance to the crypto industry, the future of digital asset regulation, and growing privacy concerns surrounding stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

Asheesh Birla, CEO of Evernorth, one of the largest XRP digital asset treasury companies, joined me to discuss Evernorth’s public listing on the Nasdaq under the ticker $XRPN, the company’s XRP treasury strategy, and how it plans to drive growth, liquidity, and broader adoption across the XRP ecosystem.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

Bitcoin has been stuck in the boring zone for the past couple of weeks, trading sideways between $80,000 and $86,000.

But here’s the thing: This is normal and healthy behavior during a bull market.

After Bitcoin’s explosive rally, the market needed time to cool off and consolidate. The good news is that BTC continues holding important support levels, and we’re now seeing a potentially bullish technical pattern developing on the daily chart.

Could Bitcoin be preparing for its next major move higher?

Let’s dive into the charts.

📊 Daily Chart: Bitcoin Bull Flag Forming

Bitcoin’s daily chart is showing what appears to be a bull flag, a technical pattern that typically forms when an asset consolidates following a strong upward move.

This is exactly what we’re seeing.

Bitcoin surged higher, reclaimed major resistance levels, and has since been consolidating between $80K and $86K. Rather than experiencing a sharp selloff, BTC has been holding relatively steady.

That’s encouraging.

If Bitcoin can break above the upper resistance of this consolidation range with strong momentum, it could confirm the bull flag and set the stage for another leg higher.

Of course, a bull flag isn’t confirmed until we get the breakout.

Until then, patience is key.

🎯 How High Could Bitcoin Go?

The big question on everyone’s mind is: How high could Bitcoin’s next rally take us?

Based on the technical models I’m tracking, there’s a potential path toward the $90,000–$98,000 region.

That’s a meaningful move higher from current levels. However, I also want to highlight a scenario we need to prepare for.

Bitcoin could rally into that target zone before experiencing a larger correction, potentially retesting the low $70,000s.

That might sound concerning, but remember that even strong bull markets experience significant corrections. What matters is the broader market structure. A pullback doesn’t automatically mean the bull market is over.

📐 Fibonacci Models Support Higher Targets

The Fibonacci models we’re tracking also identify potential upside targets in the $90K–$98K region.

When multiple technical models point toward similar price levels, those areas become particularly interesting to monitor.

However, these are potential targets, not guarantees. Bitcoin still needs to break out of its current consolidation range and sustain momentum. If that happens, the next leg higher could develop relatively quickly.

📈 Weekly Chart: Bulls Remain in Control

While the daily chart has been relatively boring, the weekly chart continues looking very bullish.

Remember the bullish divergence we’ve been tracking for months? It’s still playing out.

There are three important signals:

1. Bullish divergence remains intact. The higher-timeframe momentum shift continues supporting the broader recovery.

2. MACD shows bulls in control. Despite the recent consolidation, weekly momentum remains constructive.

3. RSI is in the neutral zone. Bitcoin still has room to move higher before reaching overbought conditions on the weekly timeframe.

This is why I constantly emphasize the importance of looking beyond short-term price action. The daily chart tells us what’s happening now. The weekly chart helps us understand the bigger trend.

And right now, the higher timeframe continues favoring the bulls.

🐂 Another Bullish Signal: 50-Week EMA Crosses Above the SMA

We’re also seeing additional technical confirmation that Bitcoin’s momentum has shifted.

The 50-Week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has moved back above the 50-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Why does this matter?

The EMA responds more quickly to recent price changes, while the SMA provides a smoother view of the broader trend.

When the EMA moves above the SMA, it suggests recent price momentum is strengthening relative to the longer-term average.

It’s another encouraging signal when combined with the factors mentioned earlier. Individually, none of these indicators guarantees higher prices. But together, they strengthen the case that the broader trend has shifted in favor of the bulls.

🔭 When in Doubt, Zoom Out

This is where patience becomes so important.

Bitcoin has been consolidating for a couple of weeks, and I know many investors are getting impatient. But markets don’t move in a straight line. They rally, consolidate, correct, and eventually establish their next trend.

The important thing is that Bitcoin has broken out of its previous bear-market downtrend and continues showing characteristics of a new bull-market uptrend.

My thesis remains that we’ve entered the early stages of a new bull market, potentially setting the stage for an exciting period over the next couple of years.

That doesn’t mean every week will be green. And it certainly doesn’t mean we won’t see volatility or significant pullbacks. But the higher-timeframe indicators continue supporting the bullish case.

As the saying goes:

“When in doubt, zoom out.”

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏦 JPMorgan Brings JPM Coin to Ethereum

JPMorgan is expanding its blockchain payments infrastructure by bringing its JPM Coin deposit token to Ethereum.

The initiative targets crypto companies and institutional clients seeking regulated digital tokens for blockchain payments and trade settlement.

This is another significant step toward connecting traditional banking infrastructure with public blockchain networks. The bigger trend continues: Wall Street is moving more financial activity on-chain.

🇩🇪 Deutsche Bank Prepares Crypto Custody Launch

Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank, is reportedly preparing to launch cryptocurrency custody services. The bank plans to introduce its custody offering in Germany, with potential expansion into major Asian financial centers in 2027.

Custody is a critical component of institutional crypto adoption. As more banks build secure infrastructure to hold digital assets, it becomes easier for institutional investors and businesses to participate in the market. Another major global bank moving deeper into crypto.

📉 Major Companies Challenge Tokenized Stock Trading

Nine companies, including CoreWeave, Broadcom, Verizon, and UnitedHealth, have reportedly objected to tokenized versions of their shares trading on OKXICE, the joint venture between OKX and ICE.

This highlights an important challenge facing the tokenization industry.While blockchain technology can potentially make financial markets more efficient and accessible, questions remain around shareholder rights, issuer authorization, investor protections, and how tokenized securities should operate.

Tokenization is moving forward, but the regulatory and legal frameworks will need to evolve alongside it.

💳 Coinbase & Marqeta Expand Stablecoin Payments

Payments technology company Marqeta is expanding its six-year partnership with Coinbase. The new initiative will allow businesses to offer payment cards funded by customers’ stablecoin balances.

This is another example of stablecoins moving beyond crypto trading and into everyday financial applications. Imagine holding digital dollars in a crypto wallet and spending them seamlessly through a traditional payment card. That’s the type of integration that could help bring stablecoins to millions of consumers.

🌎 Visa Expands Stablecoin Cross-Border Payments

Visa is moving its stablecoin-powered cross-border payments initiative from pilot testing into commercial deployment through Visa Direct. Inyo Global is the first enabler, allowing businesses to prefund international payouts using USDC.

The infrastructure is designed to support near-real-time global payments across more than 180 countries and territories. This is a major development for the payments industry.

Stablecoins have the potential to reduce settlement delays, improve liquidity management, and make cross-border money movement more efficient. And now we’re seeing one of the world’s largest payment networks expand its commercial use of the technology.

🧩 Final Thoughts

Bitcoin may be stuck in the boring zone, but don’t confuse consolidation with weakness.

The market continues showing several encouraging signals:

• Bitcoin is holding important support levels.

• A potential bull flag is forming on the daily chart.

• Weekly bullish divergence continues playing out.

• Weekly MACD remains bullish.

• Weekly RSI has room to move higher.

• The 50-Week EMA has crossed back above the 50-Week SMA.

The next major area I’m watching is $90K–$98K, assuming Bitcoin can break out of its current consolidation range.

But remember, even if we reach those levels, a larger pullback remains possible. The key is to remain disciplined and follow the data.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Discover the power of staking and liquidity pools with FortisX. This platform provides easy and secure ways to earn passive income on your crypto. It is fully audited by CertiK and SEC registered.

Kalshi - you probably know Kalshi for prediction markets, but now you can also trade crypto perps with a free $25 bonus. You can trade on crypto up or down with up to 6x leverage, meaning you can put down $100 and control a $600 position. It’s the first CFTC-regulated perps exchange in the country, which means no VPN and no offshore nonsense to deal with. To claim your $25 bonus, all you do is make your first $50 trade through my sign up link.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Andrew McCormick, Head of Institutional at Chainlink Labs, joined me to discuss the latest developments at Chainlink, including the launch of CCIP 2.0 and Fulcrum, how major institutions like DTCC are leveraging Chainlink’s technology, and the accelerating race to tokenize assets and bring traditional financial markets on-chain.

David Schwartz and Stuart Alderoty of Ripple joined me for exclusive interviews at Nasdaq during Evernorth’s closing bell ceremony. We discussed the latest developments at Ripple, the future of XRP, the broader crypto market, and the accelerating adoption of blockchain technology across the financial industry.

Edward Woodford, Co-Founder and CEO of zerohash, joined me to discuss how the company is building crypto, stablecoin, and tokenization infrastructure for TradFi institutions. We also explored zerohash’s participation in the OUSD stablecoin consortium, the critical role stablecoins play in tokenized asset markets, and how they could power payments in the emerging AI agent economy.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

It was a massive week for crypto adoption and regulatory progress, all while Bitcoin continues to consolidate and everyone waits for its next major move.

While Bitcoin’s price action may feel boring right now, what’s happening beneath the surface is anything but boring.

Wall Street firms are expanding deeper into digital assets. Banks are building stablecoin infrastructure. Regulators are proposing clearer crypto rules. And some of the world’s largest financial institutions continue integrating blockchain technology.

Let’s recap the biggest developments from the week before diving into what the Bitcoin charts are telling us.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏛️ SEC Proposes New Crypto Custody Rules

The SEC proposed new crypto custody rules designed to give investment advisers and funds a clearer regulatory pathway for holding digital assets.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the proposal:

“would provide a clear regulatory framework for the custody of crypto assets, giving investment advisers and funds a compliant pathway where none existed before.”

This could be an important step for institutional adoption.

Clear custody rules have been one of the biggest regulatory questions facing financial institutions looking to expand into crypto.

The more regulatory clarity institutions receive, the easier it becomes for traditional financial firms to build products and services around digital assets.

🏦 Morgan Stanley Launches Digital Asset Lab

Morgan Stanley has established a Digital Asset Lab to experiment with blockchain technologies including:

• Stablecoins

• Tokenization

• Decentralized finance (DeFi)

This comes after the Wall Street giant expanded its crypto footprint through ETFs and crypto trading on its E*TRADE platform.

We’re continuing to see the same trend across Wall Street:

Experimentation → products → infrastructure → deeper integration.

🤝 BNY & Kraken Explore Major Partnership

Custody banking giant BNY is reportedly in discussions with Payward, the parent company of Kraken, about a potentially broad partnership spanning digital assets and financial-market infrastructure.

The potential collaboration could include:

• Crypto products

• Custody

• Wealth management

• Trading

• Payments

• Financial infrastructure

If finalized, this would represent another major connection between traditional banking infrastructure and the crypto economy.

💵 Citi Expands Stablecoin Partnership With Coinbase

Citi is expanding its partnership with Coinbase to support stablecoin payments for corporate clients.

The companies initially announced their collaboration in October 2025, focusing on fiat-to-crypto payment infrastructure.

The expansion into stablecoin payments is another sign that banks increasingly see stablecoins not simply as a crypto product, but as new infrastructure for moving money.

That’s the bigger story to watch.

💳 Open USD Launches With $1B+ in Committed Reserves

Open Standard has introduced Open USD (OUSD), a new stablecoin backed by more than $1 billion in committed short-term reserves, with Chainlink serving as an oracle partner.

OUSD is initially being made available across networks including:

• Base

• Ethereum

• Solana

• Tempo

Businesses will also be able to access OUSD through integrations involving major payment and financial companies.

The infrastructure is designed to allow businesses to convert U.S. dollars into and out of OUSD at a 1:1 rate without minting or redemption fees.

Stablecoins are rapidly becoming one of the clearest product-market fits for blockchain technology.

⚖️ Illinois Delays Crypto Transaction Tax

Illinois has agreed to postpone implementation of its controversial 0.2% crypto transaction tax for six months.

The Digital Chamber and Illinois Blockchain Association helped negotiate the delay while legal challenges to the tax continue working through the courts.

This remains an important issue to watch because state-level crypto taxation could have implications far beyond Illinois.

₿ What’s Happening With Bitcoin?

Now let’s get to Bitcoin.

From a macro perspective, the broader trend continues to point toward higher prices over time, with Bitcoin having transitioned out of its previous bear-market downtrend.

But that doesn’t mean we’re going straight up. In the short term, we could still experience volatility to the downside.

Bitcoin continues chopping within roughly the $83K–$87K range, while the daily MACD has flipped bearish.

That’s not surprising after the explosive move we recently experienced.

Bitcoin needs time to consolidate, cool off and determine its next direction.

🎯 $82,800 Is the Key Level

Despite the boring consolidation, Bitcoin continues to hold the critical $82,800 support region.

That’s important. This was previously a major resistance level, and we now want to see Bitcoin establish it as support.

Old resistance becoming new support is exactly what you want to see during an uptrend. If Bitcoin continues holding this region, the setup for another move higher remains intact.

If it loses the level decisively, we may need to prepare for a deeper short-term pullback. For now, the bulls continue defending it.

📈 Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer Sees $100K

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, shared some interesting thoughts on Bitcoin this week.

He wrote:

“I continue to like both gold and Bitcoin, but especially Bitcoin looks interesting right now.”

Timmer highlighted Bitcoin’s breakout through the $80,000 resistance level and identified $100,000 as a potential target.

That lines up with some of the technical models we’ve been tracking in this newsletter.

We’ve discussed the possibility of Bitcoin moving toward the $90K–$100K region if the key support levels continue to hold.

Again, that’s a target—not a guarantee.

🥇 Bitcoin vs. Gold

Timmer also highlighted Bitcoin’s strength when priced against gold as capital flows return to the Bitcoin ecosystem.

He noted that Bitcoin has relatively low correlation to the S&P 500 and little correlation to Treasuries, arguing that this can strengthen Bitcoin’s role as a portfolio diversifier if a new four-year cycle is beginning.

This is particularly interesting because gold and Bitcoin have increasingly become part of the same macro conversation.

Both assets can appeal to investors looking outside traditional fiat-based financial assets, but Bitcoin brings an entirely different risk and return profile.

📊 Weekly Bullish Divergence Continues Playing Out

And then we have the chart we’ve been following for months.

Bitcoin’s weekly bullish divergence continues to play out.

This was one of the most important signals we identified during the bottoming process.

Since then, we’ve seen:

• Bitcoin break its previous downtrend

• RSI momentum improve

• MACD turn bullish on the higher timeframe

• Bitcoin reclaim major moving averages

• Former resistance levels begin turning into support

The daily chart may look indecisive right now.

But zoom out. The higher timeframe continues to look significantly more constructive.

🧩 Final Thoughts: It’s a Patience Game

This is where patience becomes important. Bitcoin doesn’t need to pump every day for the bull-market thesis to remain intact. After such a powerful move higher, consolidation is healthy.

Could Bitcoin pull back further?

Absolutely.

Could we chop sideways for a while longer?

Absolutely.

But the bigger picture remains the same. Bitcoin has broken out of its previous bear-market downtrend and established a broader uptrend.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Discover the power of staking and liquidity pools with FortisX. This platform provides easy and secure ways to earn passive income on your crypto. It is fully audited by CertiK and SEC registered.

Kalshi - you probably know Kalshi for prediction markets, but now you can also trade crypto perps with a free $25 bonus. You can trade on crypto up or down with up to 6x leverage, meaning you can put down $100 and control a $600 position. It’s the first CFTC-regulated perps exchange in the country, which means no VPN and no offshore nonsense to deal with. To claim your $25 bonus, all you do is make your first $50 trade through my sign up link.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Reid Simon, President of Digital Assets at Figure, joined us to discuss Figure’s unique tokenized loan products, how blockchain is transforming lending, and the future of crypto lending.

J.W. Verret, Crypto Law Professor of Accounting & Corporate Securities Law, joined me to discuss the fallout from the CLARITY Act failing to advance, the growing regulatory pressure on DeFi, SEC and CFTC crypto rulemaking, and the future of Zcash and privacy coins.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

Bitcoin is on the move!

BTC had an explosive surge through the key $82,814 resistance level, printing its highest weekly close in four months and reclaiming the 50-Week Moving Average for the first time since November 2025.

Needless to say, this is a very bullish development.

What’s even more impressive is when this breakout happened.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market held up remarkably well during a week when the CLARITY Act failed to advance and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.

Those were two headlines that could have easily triggered a major selloff.

Instead, Bitcoin rallied. That’s strength.

📈 Bitcoin Prints a Bullish Engulfing Candle

Bitcoin also printed a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe, adding another signal that buyers are taking control.

And Bitcoin wasn’t alone. Several major altcoins produced similar bullish weekly structures.

The market absorbed negative macro and regulatory headlines and still moved higher. That’s exactly the type of price action you want to see when a market is transitioning out of a prolonged downtrend.

With Bitcoin’s latest surge, Bloomberg analysts also noted that the average U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investor is back above water for the first time since January.

That’s another important psychological milestone.

📊 Wyckoff Accumulation Enters Phase E

One of the most interesting developments is the Wyckoff Accumulation structure we’ve been following for months.

Bitcoin now appears to be entering Phase E, the final stage of the accumulation model. This is typically where price breaks out of the trading range and begins establishing a new uptrend.

Again, technical models aren’t guarantees. But the fact that Bitcoin continues following this structure while simultaneously reclaiming major moving averages strengthens the bullish thesis.

🎯 Could Bitcoin Reach $90K–$100K?

The next question everyone is asking:

How high can this rally go?

There is certainly a scenario where Bitcoin pushes toward $100,000. But I think a more conservative area to watch is around $90,000–$94,000.

Why? The Fibonacci model we’re tracking shows the 1.618 extension around $94,000.

Interestingly, the Elliott Wave model also places Wave 5 near the $90,000 region.

When multiple technical models begin pointing toward a similar price zone, it’s worth paying attention. That doesn’t guarantee Bitcoin reaches those levels.

We should expect pullbacks, volatility and plenty of attempts by bears to regain control along the way. But the technical structure continues to support higher prices.

🧠 Subscribers Saw This Setup Developing

This move shouldn’t come as a surprise to those of you who have been following the newsletter and podcast. We’ve been tracking this bullish higher-timeframe setup for months.

Let’s recap the major signals.

1. Weekly Bullish Divergence

The bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly chart continues to play out.

At the same time:

• RSI broke its long-term downtrend

• MACD firmly in favor of the bulls

These were some of the earliest signs that the bear market was losing momentum.

2. USDT Dominance Bearish Divergence

At the same time Bitcoin was flashing bullish divergence, USDT Dominance was showing the inverse—a bearish divergence on its weekly chart.

That suggested liquidity could begin rotating out of stablecoins and back into crypto assets.

We’re now seeing that thesis play out.

3. Bitcoin Reclaimed the 200-Day Moving Average

This was one of the biggest signals.

Bitcoin has now decisively reclaimed its 200-Day Moving Average.

I use this as an important long-term trend indicator: sustained trading below it generally reflects a weaker market regime, while decisively reclaiming and holding above it strengthens the case that the broader trend has turned bullish.

4. Monthly Momentum Continues Improving

The monthly timeframe is also moving in the right direction.

Monthly RSI continues trending higher, while the MACD shows bearish momentum fading. The daily, weekly and monthly pictures are increasingly aligning.

🪙 Altcoins Are Getting Ready

As we’ve discussed many times, Bitcoin typically leads the market. Then liquidity begins moving into altcoins. We’re already seeing assets such as Ethereum and XRP developing setups for potentially larger moves.

That doesn’t mean everything pumps at once.

Bitcoin could consolidate, Bitcoin dominance could fluctuate, and individual altcoins will move at different speeds.

But broader participation from altcoins would be another confirmation that risk appetite is returning across the crypto market.

🐂 The Early Innings of a New Bull Market?

The evidence continues to strengthen the case that the market has transitioned out of its bear-market downtrend. That doesn’t mean we’re heading straight to new all-time highs. And it definitely doesn’t mean there won’t be painful pullbacks.

What we want to see now is simple:

Higher highs and higher lows.

That’s how sustainable uptrends are built. If Bitcoin can continue holding its reclaimed support levels while establishing higher lows, the broader bullish structure remains intact.

We’re still in the early innings. Don’t let short-term volatility distract you from the higher timeframes.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🍎 Apple & Google Expand Blockchain Hiring

Apple and Google are reportedly hiring for roles involving stablecoins, blockchain and Web3. Apple is seeking stablecoin expertise related to Apple Pay, while Google is expanding Web3 hiring in Hong Kong.

The convergence of payments, stablecoins and blockchain continues to attract some of the world’s largest technology companies.

🏛️ CFTC Moves Forward With Crypto Rulemaking

Following the CLARITY Act’s failure to advance, the CFTC has filed “Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions” and “Regulation Crypto Asset Markets” with the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.

This signals that regulators are preparing additional crypto rulemaking and guidance even as comprehensive market structure legislation remains stalled in Congress. The legislative route may have hit another roadblock, but regulatory activity isn’t stopping.

🏦 Coinbase Targets Thousands of Community Banks

Coinbase is partnering with Stablecore to bring regulated digital asset custody, trading and payments infrastructure to thousands of community banks and credit unions.

This follows Coinbase’s recent partnership with Moov, which also aims to connect crypto and stablecoin infrastructure with local financial institutions.

Crypto adoption isn’t just coming to Wall Street. Infrastructure is increasingly being built for regional and community banks as well.

💰 MoonPay & WisdomTree Expand Tokenized Funds

MoonPay and WisdomTree have formed a strategic collaboration designed to expand access to tokenized mutual funds in the United States.

Using MoonPay Institutional and MoonPay Trade infrastructure, investors are expected to gain the ability to purchase WTGXX using stablecoins later this year.

Another example of stablecoins becoming a bridge between traditional investments and on-chain financial markets.

🇷🇺 Moscow Exchange Expands Crypto Products

Russia’s largest securities exchange, the Moscow Exchange, plans to launch perpetual futures tied to indices tracking - Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, & TRX

The products are expected to become available to qualified investors beginning September 22. Global financial markets continue expanding their exposure to digital assets.

🇪🇺 ECB Expands Tokenized Settlement Infrastructure

The European Central Bank is moving forward with infrastructure designed to enable central bank money settlement for transactions involving tokenized assets.

This is another significant development in the race to modernize financial markets using distributed-ledger technology. Tokenization is no longer simply a crypto industry narrative. Central banks, commercial banks, asset managers and governments are actively building the infrastructure.

🧩 Final Thoughts

The market is sending a very different message than it was just a few months ago.

Bitcoin has:

• Broken through major resistance

• Printed its highest weekly close in four months

• Reclaimed the 50-Week Moving Average

• Reclaimed the 200-Day Moving Average

• Printed a weekly bullish engulfing candle

• Continued following the Wyckoff Accumulation structure

• Maintained its weekly bullish divergence

• Seen RSI break its long-term downtrend

• Shifted MACD momentum toward the bulls

That’s a lot of evidence pointing in the same direction. The next major area I’m watching is $90K–$94K, with the possibility of Bitcoin stretching toward $100K if momentum remains strong.

But don’t expect a straight line higher. Pullbacks are healthy. Volatility is normal.

What matters now is whether Bitcoin continues producing higher highs and higher lows while holding the major support levels it has reclaimed.

The bears had months to make their move. Now the bulls are taking control.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Discover the power of staking and liquidity pools with FortisX. This platform provides easy and secure ways to earn passive income on your crypto. It is fully audited by CertiK and SEC registered.

Kalshi - you probably know Kalshi for prediction markets, but now you can also trade crypto perps with a free $25 bonus. You can trade on crypto up or down with up to 6x leverage, meaning you can put down $100 and control a $600 position. It’s the first CFTC-regulated perps exchange in the country, which means no VPN and no offshore nonsense to deal with. To claim your $25 bonus, all you do is make your first $50 trade through my sign up link.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Cody Carbone, CEO of The Digital Chamber, joined us to discuss the key takeaways from the CLARITY Act’s failed Senate vote and what comes next for the bill. Will Democrats return to the negotiating table after the midterm elections to try to get the landmark crypto legislation passed?

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

We’ve got major updates on the CLARITY Act, and after months of negotiations, the momentum appears to be shifting toward advancing the bill.

The critical Senate cloture vote is scheduled for tomorrow, and Senate Republicans released what they’re calling the final draft of the CLARITY Act just in time.

According to Republican senators, the new draft incorporates 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats.

This is significant because tomorrow’s cloture vote requires 60 votes. If the Senate invokes cloture, the legislation can advance toward consideration and a full Senate vote.

But before we get into what’s changed, let’s recap the frantic negotiations that brought us here.

🏛️ What Happened Over the Weekend?

A lot happened behind closed doors.

1. Trump Meets With Advisers

President Trump met with advisers Friday to discuss the CLARITY Act’s ethics provisions ahead of the crucial Senate procedural vote.

Ethics has remained one of the biggest obstacles to securing enough Democratic support.

2. Republicans Negotiated Through the Weekend

Senate Republicans continued negotiations throughout the weekend as lawmakers attempted to find enough common ground to get the legislation across the 60-vote cloture threshold.

Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, posted on X Saturday:

“Bad day to be a Clarity Act doomer.”

That certainly got everyone’s attention.

3. Senate Democrats Met to Discuss CLARITY

A group of Senate Democrats also met last night as negotiations intensified ahead of the vote.

Remember, Republicans cannot advance this legislation on their own.

They need Democratic support to reach the 60 votes required for cloture.

Now we know what some of those negotiations produced.

⚖️ Ethics: Trump Makes a Major Concession

This has arguably been the biggest hurdle of the entire negotiation.

Democrats have pushed for stronger ethics provisions addressing potential conflicts of interest involving elected officials and crypto-related financial interests.

In a surprising development, President Trump agreed to what a Republican aide described as roughly 80% of the Tillis-Gallego ethics proposal.

Among the major changes are provisions that could require officials with substantial crypto-related financial interests to either:

• Divest those interests

• Or place them into a blind trust

The revised language would also give state attorneys general a role in enforcing the ethics provisions, something the White House had previously resisted.

This is a major concession and potentially one of the most important developments for securing Democratic votes.

🏦 Stablecoin Yield: Banks Get Another Protection

The fight over stablecoin yield has also been one of the biggest sticking points.

Banks have argued that yield-bearing stablecoins could pull deposits out of the traditional banking system, particularly from smaller community banks.

Even after a compromise earlier in the legislative process, the banking industry continued pushing for additional protections.

The updated draft now includes a form of “circuit breaker” language.

The provision would create a backstop allowing federal regulators to intervene if there is evidence of widespread deposit flight from community banks into stablecoins.

The Treasury Secretary would play a central role in determining whether intervention is warranted.

This gives the banking industry another layer of protection while still allowing stablecoin innovation to move forward.

🔗 DeFi: A Major Compromise

The DeFi provisions are likely to generate the most controversy within the crypto industry.

Protections associated with the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) have been narrowed.

The revised provision focuses on the Bank Secrecy Act and civil enforcement, while language explicitly extending those protections to certain criminal cases has been removed.

Unsurprisingly, some DeFi advocates are furious.

Critics argue that the compromise significantly weakens protections for developers and that traditional financial interests got too much of what they wanted.

Those concerns shouldn’t simply be dismissed.

But there’s also a bigger picture to consider.

There will never be a perfect bill.

And sometimes perfection becomes the enemy of progress.

That doesn’t mean the industry should stop fighting for improvements. Legislation can be amended, regulations can evolve, and policymakers can continue addressing areas where the framework falls short.

But the larger objective remains establishing comprehensive crypto market structure legislation in the United States that provides clearer rules, consumer protections and a framework for innovation.

🎙️ My Interview With Ron Hammond

On Friday, I interviewed Ron Hammond, Head of Policy and Advocacy at Wintermute, to break down all the moving pieces surrounding the CLARITY Act. If you want to understand how we arrived at this moment, definitely check out the interview.

▶️ Watch the full interview

🚨 Will CLARITY Actually Pass?

This is the big question.

There is still no guarantee.

The updated draft improves the bill’s path forward, but tomorrow’s cloture vote remains a major test.

If the Senate reaches 60 votes, that does not mean the CLARITY Act immediately becomes law.

It means the Senate clears an important procedural hurdle and can move toward further consideration and a final vote.

That’s where things could get very interesting for the crypto market.

📈 Could CLARITY Ignite a Crypto Rally?

The bears are arguing that the legislation will fail and crypto prices will dump because the market bottom isn’t actually in.

That’s certainly a scenario we need to consider.

If tomorrow’s vote fails, disappointment could create significant short-term volatility.

But the higher-timeframe charts continue telling a different story.

The bullish divergences we’ve been tracking on both Bitcoin and TOTAL3 continue to play out, while their MACD structures show improving bullish momentum.

That remains supportive of the thesis that the broader crypto market has already gone through a significant bottoming process.

💵 USDT Dominance Continues to Confirm

The inverse signal is still playing out on the USDT Dominance weekly chart.

We’re seeing the bearish divergence we’ve been tracking continue to develop.

As USDT Dominance declines, it can signal that capital is rotating out of stablecoins and back into Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

That’s exactly what bulls want to see.

🤔 One Scenario I’m Watching

Here’s one potential scenario I’ve been thinking about.

Tomorrow’s cloture vote passes. The market rallies because the legislation has cleared a major hurdle.

But then negotiations surrounding the final Senate vote become difficult again. Crypto pulls back.

The legislation eventually clears Congress in early October, and the market responds with another rally.

That’s purely speculation.

There are countless ways this can play out.

But it’s a good reminder that even if tomorrow’s vote succeeds, the legislative process isn’t finished—and markets rarely move in a straight line. The key is to follow the data rather than become emotionally attached to any one scenario.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🇦🇪 UAE Uses Avalanche for Digital Identity Infrastructure

The UAE is using Avalanche as part of infrastructure supporting its national digital identity ecosystem.

UAE PASS provides citizens, residents and visitors with a secure way to verify their identities, digitally sign documents and access thousands of government and private-sector services. It’s another example of governments exploring blockchain infrastructure beyond purely financial applications.

🏦 U.S. Bank Tests Its Own Stablecoin on Stellar

U.S. Bank has completed a live cross-border payment using USBDC, its proprietary U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin.

The transaction moved between U.S. Bank entities in North America and Europe using the Stellar blockchain. The bank is now evaluating broader applications for stablecoins across its payments and treasury operations.

Banks aren’t simply talking about stablecoins anymore. They’re building and testing them.

💳 MoneyGram Brings Stablecoins to Everyday Spending

MoneyGram is expanding its stablecoin strategy with a new card that allows customers to maintain a dollar-denominated balance and spend it wherever Visa is accepted.

The card is initially launching in Colombia using Circle’s USDC, with MoneyGram’s own MGUSD stablecoin expected to be supported later.

This takes stablecoins another step toward becoming invisible financial infrastructure that consumers can use without necessarily thinking about the blockchain operating underneath.

🇮🇳 Maharashtra Explores Tokenization

The Indian state of Maharashtra is pushing forward with plans to tokenize real-world assets using blockchain technology.

The initiative could eventually encompass infrastructure and other state-linked assets, providing another example of governments exploring tokenization as a new mechanism for financing and managing assets.

The tokenization race is clearly becoming global.

🇬🇧 UK Lawmakers Push for a National Digital Asset Strategy

The UK government suffered a defeat in the House of Lords after peers backed an amendment requiring the Treasury to develop a comprehensive national digital asset strategy.

The proposal calls for the government to examine areas including:

• Cryptoassets

• Stablecoins

• Tokenized securities

• Digital financial market infrastructure

• Banking and payment access

• International competitiveness

The amendment adds further pressure on the UK to establish a coordinated strategy as the global competition for digital asset leadership accelerates.

🧩 Final Thoughts

Tomorrow could be one of the most consequential days for U.S. crypto policy in years.

The updated CLARITY Act addresses several of the issues that have prevented lawmakers from reaching a bipartisan agreement:

Ethics. Stablecoin yield. DeFi. Consumer protection. Market structure.

But nothing is guaranteed.

The first major test is getting 60 votes for cloture.

If that happens, the legislation takes an important step forward—but there will still be work left to do before it can become law.

Meanwhile, the crypto charts continue showing improving higher-timeframe momentum.

Could the market be anticipating what’s coming?

We’ll find out soon enough.

For now, ignore the noise, watch the vote, and let the data guide the thesis.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Discover the power of staking and liquidity pools with FortisX. This platform provides easy and secure ways to earn passive income on your crypto. It is fully audited by CertiK and SEC registered.

Kalshi - you probably know Kalshi for prediction markets, but now you can also trade crypto perps with a free $25 bonus. You can trade on crypto up or down with up to 6x leverage, meaning you can put down $100 and control a $600 position. It’s the first CFTC-regulated perps exchange in the country, which means no VPN and no offshore nonsense to deal with. To claim your $25 bonus, all you do is make your first $50 trade through my sign up link.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Ryne Saxe, Co-Founder and CEO of Eco, joined me to discuss how the company is using stablecoins to enable programmable routing, seamless settlement, and greater connectivity across digital asset markets.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

The bulls and bears are battling it out as Bitcoin cools down following its recent explosive rally.

The bulls want to capture and hold the critical $81K–$83K region, while the bears are desperately trying to turn the recent breakout into a failed rally.

The battle has been so fierce that the daily MACD has seesawed between bullish and bearish over the past day.

This is an important moment for Bitcoin.

Let’s break down the charts.

📊 Daily Chart: Bitcoin Cools Down

Bitcoin is continuing to pull back from extremely overbought conditions on the daily timeframe.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing.

After such a powerful move higher, the market needed time to cool off and reset. Markets don’t move straight up forever.

However, if the bears regain control and push Bitcoin significantly lower, the major level I’m watching is $70,000.

Holding that region would keep the broader bullish structure intact.

A deeper breakdown would force us to reassess whether the recent rally was simply another bear market rally rather than the beginning of a larger trend reversal.

📈 Wyckoff Accumulation Still Points Higher

What’s particularly interesting is that Bitcoin’s recent price action continues to resemble a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern.

If this structure continues playing out, the current volatility could simply be consolidation before another move higher.

There are never guarantees with technical analysis, but one possible scenario is:

Bitcoin chops sideways → consolidates → establishes support → makes another move higher.

This is why patience is so important right now.

We don’t need Bitcoin to pump every day for the bullish thesis to remain intact.

🗓️ Weekly Chart Remains Very Bullish

When we zoom out, the picture continues to look much better.

The weekly chart we’ve been monitoring for months still shows several major bullish signals.

1. Bullish Divergence

The weekly bullish divergence continues to play out beautifully.

This was one of the major signals we identified near the bottom, and so far it continues to support the thesis that the broader trend has changed.

2. RSI Breaks Its Downtrend

Weekly RSI has broken the downtrend it had been trapped in since last year.

That’s another encouraging sign that momentum is shifting.

3. MACD Remains Bullish

Most importantly, the weekly MACD continues to show bulls firmly in control.

While the daily timeframe may experience volatility, the higher timeframe continues to favor the bulls.

And remember:

Higher timeframes matter more than short-term noise.

📅 Monthly Chart Is Starting to Turn

The monthly chart is also beginning to look increasingly constructive.

There are three major signals I’m watching:

1. A strong reversal structure with a higher-high candle

2. MACD flattening as bearish momentum fades

3. A bullish tick developing on the Stochastic RSI

These are exactly the types of signals you want to see as a market transitions from a prolonged downtrend into a new uptrend.

It doesn’t mean we’re going straight to new all-time highs.

It means the probabilities continue shifting in favor of the bulls.

⚔️ $81K–$83K Is the Battleground

As I highlighted in the previous newsletter, $81,000–$83,000 is a major resistance zone.

Bitcoin was never guaranteed to blast straight through it.

The market now needs to prove that this former resistance can eventually become support.

This is where patience matters.

Bitcoin could:

• Consolidate around current levels

• Experience another pullback

• Retest lower support

• Or eventually break through resistance and begin its next leg higher

What matters most is the broader market structure.

And right now, the higher timeframes continue to suggest that the higher-probability outcome remains higher prices over time.

Don’t let a few red candles after an explosive rally suddenly convince you that the entire bullish thesis is invalidated.

Markets move in cycles.

They rally, consolidate, pull back and rally again.

For now, $81K–$83K remains the battlefield between the bulls and bears.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏛️ Another CLARITY Act Roadblock Is Removed

The National Sheriffs’ Association has dropped its opposition to the CLARITY Act after spending months pushing back against portions of the landmark crypto market structure legislation.

This removes another obstacle as lawmakers attempt to build enough support to finally move the bill forward.

With Washington returning from its August recess, the CLARITY Act will once again become one of the biggest catalysts to watch for the crypto market. September 15th is when the process of getting the bull through the Senate should start.

🏦 21 Global Banks Join Forces on Stablecoins

Twenty-one major global banks—including Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and UBS—have reportedly committed to launching a joint stablecoin company.

The initiative is targeting a U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoin launching in the first half of 2027.

Think about how dramatically the conversation has changed.

Banks once viewed stablecoins primarily as competition.

Now some of the world’s largest financial institutions want to issue them.

Stablecoins are quickly becoming part of the infrastructure of the global financial system.

🇦🇪 Standard Chartered Launches Institutional Crypto Trading in UAE

Standard Chartered is now offering institutional Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading through its Dubai International Financial Centre branch.

The launch makes Standard Chartered the first Global Systemically Important Bank to offer the capability in the market.

Once again, major banks aren’t simply experimenting with crypto anymore—they’re building products around it.

🤝 SoFi and Kraken Connect Crypto With Banking Rails

SoFi and Kraken are connecting their financial infrastructure through a new partnership.

The agreement gives Kraken access to SoFi’s banking and dollar-settlement infrastructure while bringing Kraken’s crypto trading technology to SoFi customers.

The walls separating traditional banking and crypto continue to come down.

🌎 G20 Pushes for Clearer Digital Asset Regulation

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors issued a joint policy statement on September 1 committing to clearer regulatory pathways for digital asset innovation.

Individual countries will still determine their own regulatory and enforcement frameworks, but the direction of travel is becoming increasingly clear:

Crypto regulation is moving toward greater clarity and integration rather than outright prohibition.

🇹🇼 Taiwan Prepares New Stablecoin Rules

Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission is drafting nine subsidiary regulations under its Virtual Asset Service Act.

The framework is expected to include detailed rules governing stablecoins, with implementation targeted for Q1 2027.

Another major jurisdiction is putting the regulatory infrastructure in place for digital assets and stablecoins.

🧩 Final Thoughts

The bulls and bears are fighting for control, and we should expect volatility around these levels.

The daily chart needed to cool down after becoming extremely overbought.

But when we zoom out, the picture remains constructive:

• Weekly bullish divergence continues playing out

• Weekly RSI has broken its long-term downtrend

• Weekly MACD remains firmly bullish

• Monthly momentum is beginning to reverse

• Bitcoin continues showing characteristics of Wyckoff Accumulation

The $81K–$83K region remains the key battleground.

If Bitcoin can eventually reclaim this area and turn it into support, the door opens for another major leg higher.

If bears win the short-term battle, $70K becomes a critical level to watch.

For now, patience is the name of the game.

The short-term battle is fierce—but the higher timeframes continue tipping the scales toward the bulls.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Discover the power of staking and liquidity pools with FortisX. This platform provides easy and secure ways to earn passive income on your crypto. It is fully audited by CertiK and SEC registered.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Nadine Chakar, Global Head of DTCC Digital Assets, joined us to discuss the DTCC’s plans for asset tokenization and its vision for bringing financial markets on-chain.

Tiffany Smith, Partner and the Co-Chair of the Blockchain & Cryptocurrency Working Group at WilmerHale, joined me to discuss the SEC's new Reg Crypto guidance and what it means for the crypto industry and market.

Amar Kuchinad, CEO of Copper, joined me to discuss how the firm is building crypto and blockchain infrastructure to help institutions securely participate in digital asset markets.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

The bullish divergence we’ve been tracking on Bitcoin’s weekly chart is playing out beautifully.

Bitcoin made an impulsive move toward $81,000 and is now cooling down—which is healthy after such a strong rally.

BTC became extremely overbought on the daily timeframe, so some consolidation or a pullback was expected. Despite momentum slowing, the daily MACD still shows bulls in control.

Even more importantly, Bitcoin has reclaimed the 200-Day Moving Average.

That’s a huge win for the bulls and another major signal that the market structure is changing.

🏆 Bitcoin Reclaims Its Crown

Bitcoin’s latest surge has also allowed it to officially reclaim the title of the best-performing major asset over the past decade, surpassing NVIDIA.

Think about everything Bitcoin has endured during that period:

• Multiple bear markets

• Exchange collapses

• Regulatory crackdowns

• China bans

• “Bitcoin is dead” narratives

• Global macro shocks

And yet, here we are.

Bitcoin continues to prove why it remains one of the most important assets to watch.

📈 Weekly Chart Looks Very Bullish

The weekly timeframe continues to look extremely constructive.

The RSI has broken through its downtrend line and still has room to move higher before becoming overbought.

Meanwhile, the weekly MACD shows bulls firmly in control.

Higher-timeframe momentum continues to support the thesis we’ve been discussing for months: the bear market bottom may finally be behind us.

⚠️ $79K–$82K Is the Battleground

That doesn’t mean Bitcoin is going straight up.

BTC is currently battling an important resistance zone between approximately $79,000 and $82,000.

After such an impulsive move, we should expect volatility and potentially another pullback.

A correction here would not automatically invalidate the bullish structure. In fact, a healthy retest of support could help reset the daily indicators before Bitcoin attempts its next leg higher.

The important thing is whether the key support levels hold.

🐂 Is the Bear Market Officially Over?

There’s now a strong case that the crypto market has transitioned back into the early stages of a bull market.

Analyst Blockchain Backer recently shared a great chart of the total crypto market capitalization that supports the thesis that the bottom has already been reached.

Remember: markets move in cycles.

We don’t go down forever, just as we don’t go up forever.

After months of extreme fear, oversold conditions and capitulation, we’re finally seeing the technical structure shift in favor of the bulls.

🪙 Altcoins Are Following Bitcoin

Bitcoin isn’t moving alone.

Many altcoins experienced their own impulsive rallies and are now facing the same short-term issue: overbought conditions.

XRP is a great example.

Its daily chart looks remarkably similar to Bitcoin’s, with strong bullish momentum followed by overheated technical indicators.

This is healthy.

If Bitcoin consolidates while holding support, we could eventually see liquidity rotate further into Ethereum, XRP, Solana and the broader altcoin market.

🎯 Could Bitcoin Hit $100K?

If Bitcoin holds its key support levels, there is now a realistic path toward $100,000.

The Fibonacci levels we’re tracking show several upside targets that could come into play if this rally continues.

However, I want to make an important distinction:

I don’t believe this is necessarily a move straight to new all-time highs.

Instead, this looks more like a powerful early-stage bull market rally after a major bottom.

There will be pullbacks.

There will be volatility.

And there will probably be moments when everyone questions whether the rally is over.

That’s normal.

The important thing is that the broader trend appears to be shifting from downtrend to uptrend.

🏛️ Is Bitcoin Front-Running the CLARITY Act?

The way Bitcoin is trading—and the possibility of this rally extending into September—has me wondering whether the market is beginning to price in the CLARITY Act eventually passing.

There’s an old Wall Street saying:

“Show me the charts and I’ll tell you the news.”

Markets often begin moving before the catalyst everyone is waiting for actually arrives.

If Bitcoin continues holding support and grinding higher, we could see another major price surge alongside renewed optimism surrounding the CLARITY Act.

But there’s another scenario we need to consider:

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Bitcoin and altcoins could rally into the legislation’s passage, only for traders to take profits once the news becomes official.

That’s why it’s important not to blindly chase green candles.

🧩 The Scales Are Tipping Toward the Bulls

The evidence continues to build:

• Bitcoin reclaimed the 200-Day Moving Average.

• Weekly bullish divergence is playing out.

• Weekly RSI has broken its downtrend.

• MACD shows bulls in control.

• Total crypto market structure is improving.

• Altcoins are participating.

• Bitcoin has broken its broader downtrend.

We still have a long way to go before challenging new all-time highs.

But the scales are increasingly tipping toward the bulls, and it looks like we may be entering the early stages of the next bull market.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏦 U.S. Banks Are Building Their Own Blockchain

U.S. state banking associations are planning to launch a nationwide blockchain network called the BankChain Alliance.

Thirty-nine state banking associations have signed on to the initiative, which is targeting a 2027 launch.

The network is expected to support:

• Stablecoins

• Payments

• Tokenized deposits

Most importantly, the system would be owned, designed and governed by the banking industry itself.

We’ve gone from banks questioning whether blockchain has utility to thousands of banks preparing their own blockchain infrastructure.

That’s quite the shift.

🇭🇰 Standard Chartered Goes Deeper Into Stablecoins

Standard Chartered has become the first bank to distribute one of Hong Kong’s regulated stablecoins.

The bank will initially help eligible institutional clients and partners integrate the Hong Kong dollar stablecoin issued by Anchorpoint Financial.

Planned use cases include:

• Money market fund subscriptions

• Settlement with asset managers

• Intragroup settlement

• Cross-border payments

This is another example of stablecoins becoming integrated directly into the traditional banking system.

💰 Franklin Templeton Expands Tokenization in Asia

Franklin Templeton is partnering with HashKey to expand access to tokenized money market funds across Asia.

HashKey has launched the Franklin OnChain U.S. Government Liquidity Fund through its Earn platform, providing eligible Asian investors access to a tokenized fund primarily invested in U.S. government money market instruments and U.S. dollar cash assets.

Tokenized funds are quickly moving from experimentation to real-world distribution.

🇰🇷 POSCO International Tokenizes Trade Finance on Avalanche

South Korea’s POSCO International is expanding its use of blockchain for trade finance.

The company’s U.S. division worked with Olea and Intain to tokenize real-world trade receivables using an Avalanche-based blockchain network.

AI was also used to reconcile and verify:

• Invoices

• Purchase orders

• Credit notes

• Shipping documents

The verified receivables were then recorded on-chain.

What’s particularly interesting is that this comes only about a month after POSCO completed a similar pilot using Injective.

₿ BlackRock Makes It Easier to Move Bitcoin Into IBIT

BlackRock has reportedly reduced the minimum threshold for private in-kind creations involving its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from $25 million to $1 million.

More than $5 billion in transactions have now reportedly been facilitated from private Bitcoin wallets.

In simple terms, this makes it easier for qualifying Bitcoin holders to move exposure from self-custodied BTC into IBIT through the creation process.

It’s another example of the infrastructure connecting native Bitcoin markets with traditional financial products becoming increasingly sophisticated.

🧠 Final Thoughts

What a difference a few months can make.

Not long ago, sentiment was at extreme fear, Bitcoin was deeply oversold and people were once again declaring crypto dead.

Now:

Bitcoin has reclaimed the 200-Day Moving Average, broken its downtrend and rallied toward $81K.

We shouldn’t get overly euphoric. The daily chart is overheated, major resistance sits between $79K and $82K, and pullbacks are inevitable.

But the bigger picture has changed.

The downtrend appears broken.

The bulls are taking control.

And if the key support levels continue to hold, we may be watching the early stages of the next crypto bull market unfold.

Stay patient. Don’t chase. And keep your eyes on the higher timeframes.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Discover the power of staking and liquidity pools with FortisX. This platform provides easy and secure ways to earn passive income on your crypto. It is fully audited by CertiK and SEC registered.

GoMining is an All-in-one Bitcoin superapp to mine, earn and use BTC. They have 5 Million+ users and have been live since 2021. Manage assets and generate yield in the GoMining ecosystem.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Cody Carbone, CEO of The Digital Chamber, joined me to discuss the recent White House Crypto Summit, the SEC’s release of its Regulation Crypto guidance, and whether the CLARITY Act can finally pass the Senate in September.

Jim Ferraioli, Head of Crypto Research at Charles Schwab, joined me to discuss the firm's expanding lineup of crypto products and the growing demand for digital assets.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

Bitcoin is on the move!

BTC pumped above $68,000 today, and we’re finally starting to see some life return to the broader crypto market.

We’ve been tracking the bottoming process for weeks, and several of the signals we’ve been watching continue to improve. However, Bitcoin is now approaching an important technical battleground that could determine whether this rally has much further to run.

Here’s where things stand.

📊 Daily Timeframe: Bitcoin Is Getting Overheated

Bitcoin’s daily chart looks bullish, but it’s also starting to get a little overheated.

The move above $68K has pushed the RSI into the overbought zone. That doesn’t mean Bitcoin has to immediately sell off, but it does mean we need to be cautious in the short term and see whether BTC can sustain this move.

There are two major signals I’m watching:

• MACD has flipped bullish, showing that the bulls have taken control of momentum.

• Bitcoin is battling the 200-Day Moving Average, where we’re seeing resistance.

The 200 DMA is incredibly important.

If Bitcoin can decisively break through it and turn it into support, the bears could be in big trouble.

This move could also be the one that finally takes Bitcoin out of the “cheap” region we’ve discussed in previous newsletters.

But first, we need confirmation.

Does Bitcoin break through and continue higher, or does the 200 DMA reject the rally and send BTC back toward lower prices?

That’s the battle taking place right now.

🪙 Altcoins Are Waking Up

We’re also finally seeing signs of life from altcoins.

Ethereum, XRP and Solana are all showing positive price action alongside Bitcoin.

That’s exactly what we want to see.

If Bitcoin can maintain its strength and eventually consolidate above major resistance, liquidity could begin rotating into altcoins and broaden the rally across the crypto market.

📈 Weekly Timeframe: Bitcoin Looks Immaculate

While the daily chart is becoming overheated, the weekly Bitcoin chart looks immaculate

The bullish divergence we’ve been tracking continues to play out, and the MACD shows the bulls firmly gaining control.

This is significant because higher-timeframe signals carry much more weight than the short-term volatility we see on daily charts.

Even better, we continue to see confirmation from another chart we’ve been tracking for months: USDT Dominance.

💵 USDT Dominance Confirms the Move

The weekly USDT Dominance chart continues playing out its bearish divergence.

This is essentially the inverse of what we’re seeing on Bitcoin.

As USDT Dominance declines, it suggests capital is moving out of stablecoins and back into crypto assets.

That’s exactly the liquidity rotation bulls want to see.

When you combine:

• Bitcoin’s weekly bullish divergence

• Bullish momentum on the MACD

• Bearish divergence on USDT Dominance

• Altcoins beginning to wake up

…the market is starting to look increasingly constructive.

However, we still need more confirmation before declaring the bear market officially over.

Patience remains key.

🇺🇸 White House Crypto Summit: Major Takeaways

Today, the White House held a major crypto summit featuring the chairs of the SEC and CFTC alongside leaders from across the crypto industry.

There were several major takeaways:

1. President Trump said the U.S. is considering buying “sizable” amounts of Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

2. Trump called on Congress to finally pass the CLARITY Act.

3. Trump said the United States intends to remain the “undisputed leader” in Bitcoin and crypto.

4. Hyperliquid’s HYPE token jumped roughly 15% to $69 after Trump said the CFTC is working to bring the platform to the U.S.

5. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said: “We will ensure that the greatest advances of the technological frontier are realized right here in America.”

6. Gemini co-founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss argued that America should lead and win in crypto markets.

7. Trump declared that his administration had “ended the war on crypto once and for all.”

Regardless of your politics, the shift in the U.S. government’s posture toward digital assets over the past couple of years has been remarkable.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏛️ SEC Proposes “Regulation Crypto Assets”

Yesterday, the SEC proposed a new framework for crypto fundraising in the United States called Regulation Crypto Assets.

The proposal would create new pathways for crypto projects to raise capital, including provisions that would:

• Allow certain offerings of up to $5 million over four years or $75 million annually without full SEC registration.

• Establish a conditional safe harbor for crypto assets after an issuer’s essential managerial efforts have ended.

• Preempt certain state-level securities registration requirements.

If finalized, this could represent a major change in how crypto companies launch tokens and raise capital in the United States.

💵 Treasury Moves Forward With GENIUS Act Rules

The U.S. Treasury is taking another major step toward implementing the GENIUS Act.

The department has proposed federal definitions clarifying what it means to issue a U.S. stablecoin and which companies must comply with the law.

The rulemaking process is becoming increasingly important as implementation deadlines approach and stablecoins become more deeply integrated into the traditional financial system.

🏦 Citigroup Prepares Bitcoin Custody

Citigroup plans to begin offering Bitcoin custody later this year, bringing digital assets into the same institutional infrastructure it uses to safeguard traditional financial assets.

The bank’s institutional infrastructure arm also announced Custody+, a suite of services designed to improve:

• Custody

• Settlement

• Foreign exchange

• Cash management

Yet another Wall Street giant is moving deeper into crypto.

📈 Goldman Sachs Acquires NEOS Investments

Goldman Sachs is acquiring NEOS Investments, the firm behind BTCI, a roughly $1.1 billion Bitcoin synthetic ETF that uses an options strategy to generate income.

The cash-and-equity transaction values NEOS at up to $2.25 billion, subject to performance targets, and is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027 pending regulatory approval.

Wall Street’s crypto product expansion continues.

🇮🇱 Israel’s Largest Bank Plans Crypto Trading

Bank Leumi, Israel’s largest bank, plans to offer cryptocurrency trading beginning in early 2027.

Customers of Leumi and its mobile banking platform Pepper will be able to:

• Buy

• Hold

• Sell

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana directly through the Leumi Trade app.

Another major bank embracing crypto rather than fighting it.

🧩 Final Thoughts

The crypto market is finally starting to show meaningful strength.

Bitcoin has pushed above $68K, altcoins are waking up, weekly momentum continues improving, and stablecoin liquidity appears to be rotating back into the market.

But the biggest test is happening right now:

Can Bitcoin decisively break through the 200-Day Moving Average?

If it can, the argument that the bear market bottom is behind us becomes significantly stronger.

If Bitcoin gets rejected, we could see another pullback before the bottoming process is complete.

Either way, the higher-timeframe data continues moving in the right direction.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined. And let the market confirm the next move.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Discover the power of staking and liquidity pools with FortisX. This platform provides easy and secure ways to earn passive income on your crypto. It is fully audited by CertiK and SEC registered.

GoMining is an All-in-one Bitcoin superapp to mine, earn and use BTC. They have 5 Million+ users and have been live since 2021. Manage assets and generate yield in the GoMining ecosystem.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Johann Kerbrat, SVP & General Manager of Robinhood Crypto, joined us to discuss the rapid growth of Robinhood Chain and the launch of AI agentic trading.

Jim Ferraioli, Head of Crypto Research at Charles Schwab, joined me to discuss the firm's expanding lineup of crypto products and the growing demand for digital assets.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

Things are not looking good for the CLARITY Act in the Senate.

With just three days remaining before Congress begins its August recess, time is running out.

As of writing, the Senate has not filed cloture, the procedural step required to bring the bill to the floor for a vote. On top of that, the White House has yet to respond to the updated bipartisan ethics language, giving Democrats another reason to delay the legislation.

At this point, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the CLARITY Act will not be signed into law anytime soon and is unlikely to receive a final Senate vote before lawmakers leave Washington.

The next realistic opportunity will likely come when the Senate returns in September. The bill would still need to:

• Pass the Senate

• Return to the House for another vote

• Be signed into law by President Trump

🏛️ A Missed Opportunity

Many in the industry hoped the bill would at least clear the Senate before the August recess.

Even without becoming law immediately, a Senate victory would have been a major milestone and could have served as a powerful catalyst for the crypto market.

Unfortunately, that scenario now appears unlikely.

What’s surprising, however, is the market’s reaction—or lack thereof.

Despite the disappointing outlook for the CLARITY Act, Bitcoin has not experienced a meaningful selloff.

That doesn’t mean volatility can’t still arrive.

If hopes for Senate action completely disappear by Friday, we could certainly see another wave of selling.

On the other hand, it’s entirely possible that the market has already priced in the delay, leaving Bitcoin to simply consolidate or drift sideways before its next major move.

📊 Bitcoin Technical Update

Let’s look at the charts.

Daily Timeframe

The daily chart remains constructive.

• RSI is sitting near the neutral zone, leaving room for Bitcoin to move higher before becoming overbought.

• MACD is approaching a bullish crossover, with bearish momentum continuing to fade.

This suggests the bulls are slowly beginning to regain control.

A Major Technical Breakout Is Near

One level I’m watching closely is $67,000.

If Bitcoin can reclaim that level, the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern would be on the verge of confirmation.

The measured move from that pattern projects Bitcoin well above the current downtrend, marking:

• The first decisive break above the downtrend since the October 2025 crash.

• The first move back above the 200-Day Moving Average since November.

That would be a significant technical development.

📈 The Stock Market Continues Leading

Another positive factor is the continued strength in equities.

The S&P 500 has pushed to new all-time highs, while the Nasdaq is breaking out and appears ready to challenge new highs as well.

Historically, strong performance in equities has supported broader risk assets—including crypto.

Even more encouraging:

The MACD on both indexes remains firmly bullish, suggesting momentum continues to favor the upside.

If stocks remain strong, they could provide an important tailwind for Bitcoin and altcoins.

📅 Weekly Timeframe Still Supports the Bottoming Thesis

The weekly charts continue telling the same story we’ve been tracking for several weeks.

Bitcoin continues developing a bullish divergence, while USDT Dominance continues forming a bearish divergence.

These are two of the strongest higher-timeframe signals suggesting that the broader bottoming process remains intact.

Although they don’t guarantee immediate upside, they continue strengthening the case that the bear market is approaching its later stages.

🤔 What Happens Next?

Now it’s simply a matter of patience.

The next several days should provide much more clarity.

There are two primary scenarios:

Scenario 1

Bitcoin experiences one final flush to fresh lows before completing the bottoming process and beginning a stronger recovery.

Scenario 2

Bitcoin follows the lead of the stock market and continues building momentum higher without making another significant lower low.

Only time—and the charts—will tell.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏦 BlackRock Expands Its Tokenized Money Market Platform

BlackRock continues accelerating its tokenization strategy.

The firm introduced two new tokenized cash products:

• BlackRock Select Treasury Based Liquidity Fund (BSTBL), an Ethereum-based tokenized share class of an existing money market fund.

• BlackRock Daily Reinvestment Stablecoin Reserve Vehicle (BRSRV), featuring automatic daily dividend reinvestment with planned multi-blockchain support.

Another major step toward bringing traditional financial products fully on-chain.

🔒 BNY Partners With Galaxy for Institutional Staking

BNY has selected Galaxy to add staking capabilities to its digital asset custody platform.

Pending regulatory approval, institutional clients will be able to stake digital assets directly from custody while Galaxy provides the underlying staking infrastructure.

This marks another example of traditional financial institutions expanding beyond custody into blockchain-native services.

🌐 Circle Announces Arc Network Founding Validators

Circle has revealed the founding validators for its upcoming Arc blockchain network.

The initial validator group includes:

• BlackRock

• Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC)

• Mastercard

• Visa

• Standard Chartered

It’s another powerful example of traditional finance embracing blockchain infrastructure at the highest levels.

🧩 Final Thoughts

The CLARITY Act appears headed for a delay—but the market isn’t panicking.

That’s worth paying attention to.

Meanwhile:

• Bitcoin continues improving technically.

• A major breakout pattern is forming.

• Stocks remain incredibly strong.

• On-chain and higher-timeframe signals continue pointing toward a bottoming process.

The next few weeks should tell us whether Bitcoin follows the stock market higher or needs one final shakeout before the next major trend begins.

Stay patient. Stay objective. Let the data—not the headlines—guide your decisions.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Discover the power of staking and liquidity pools with FortisX. This platform provides easy and secure ways to earn passive income on your crypto. It is fully audited by CertiK and SEC registered.

GoMining is an All-in-one Bitcoin superapp to mine, earn and use BTC. They have 5 Million+ users and have been live since 2021. Manage assets and generate yield in the GoMining ecosystem.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Cody Carbone, CEO of The Digital Chamber, joined us to discuss the latest CLARITY Act timeline and the ongoing negotiations over the bill's ethics provisions.

Ari Redbord, Global Head of Policy at TRM Labs, joined us to discuss how the firm's blockchain intelligence solutions help financial institutions, crypto businesses, and government agencies detect and investigate crypto-related financial crime and fraud.

Bill Barhydt, Founder/CEO Abra, joined me to discuss the current state of the crypto market and what needs to happen for the market before the next major bull run.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

The crypto market is showing renewed strength as Bitcoin and altcoins continue moving higher.

As we’ve been tracking over the past several newsletters, our expectation has been for Bitcoin to rally toward the $70,000–$72,000 range. So far, that thesis continues to play out.

Now comes the big question:

Will Bitcoin be rejected at the 200-Day Moving Average, or can it break through and confirm that the bear market bottom is finally in?

Let’s look at the data.

📊 The Charts Continue to Improve

Several technical and on-chain indicators suggest this rally may have more room to run.

📈 Bitcoin Appears to Be in Wyckoff Accumulation

Bitcoin continues to resemble a classic Wyckoff Accumulation pattern.

If this structure continues to play out, Bitcoin could move beyond the initial $70K–$72K target and challenge higher resistance levels.

This remains one of the more constructive technical setups we’ve seen in months.

🔗 On-Chain Data Supports the Bottoming Thesis

Another encouraging signal comes from on-chain metrics.

Bitcoin Supply in Loss

The percentage of Bitcoin supply currently sitting at a loss has reached levels comparable to:

• The FTX collapse

• Previous bear market bottoms

Historically, these periods have coincided with major accumulation opportunities as weaker hands exit the market.

🐋 Long-Term Holder Selling Is Easing

We’re also seeing signs that long-term holder capitulation is slowing.

Selling pressure from experienced investors appears to be easing, another indication that the market may be progressing through the later stages of the bottoming process.

This is exactly the type of behavior we’d expect before a more sustained recovery begins.

📉 Weekly Bullish Divergence Still Intact

The bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly chart continues to hold.

We’ve discussed this indicator extensively because it has appeared near previous bear market bottoms.

While no single indicator guarantees a reversal, the fact that this divergence continues to play out strengthens the case that Bitcoin is building a foundation for higher prices.

💵 USDT Dominance Signals Liquidity Rotation

Meanwhile, the USDT Dominance chart continues to show a bearish divergence.

Historically, declining stablecoin dominance has often signaled that capital is rotating out of stablecoins and back into crypto assets.

If that trend continues, it could provide additional fuel for Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market.

🏛️ The CLARITY Act Could Be the Next Catalyst

It’s shaping up to be a pivotal week for the CLARITY Act.

A vote is expected on the Senate floor, and despite ongoing political headwinds, momentum appears to be building.

The timing couldn’t be more important.

Meanwhile, Russia is moving in the opposite direction.

According to TASS, Russia’s State Duma is expected to consider legislation to regulate Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, with lawmakers stating the bill is intended to create a legal framework for digital assets to operate within the country.

This serves as another reminder that if the United States fails to pass the CLARITY Act, it risks falling behind in the global race for leadership in crypto and blockchain innovation.

With the August 7 deadline quickly approaching before Congress recesses, the coming days could prove critical.

Let’s hope lawmakers can get this across the finish line.

🎙️ New Interview: Summer Mersinger

Last week, I sat down with Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association, at the Injective Policy Summit.

We discussed:

• The latest developments surrounding the CLARITY Act

• Crypto tax legislation

• The Anti-CBDC Act and its inclusion in the Housing Bill

• What the industry should expect next from Washington

If you want a deeper understanding of where U.S. crypto policy is headed, be sure to check out the interview.

▶️ Watch now!

🧩 Final Thoughts

The market is finally showing signs of life.

• Bitcoin continues climbing toward key resistance.

• On-chain metrics support the bottoming thesis.

• Weekly bullish divergence remains intact.

• Stablecoin liquidity appears ready to rotate back into crypto.

• The CLARITY Act could become the catalyst that pushes the rally further.

We’re not at full confirmation yet.

The 200-Day Moving Average remains the key battleground between bulls and bears.

If Bitcoin can reclaim it and hold above it, confidence that the bear market is behind us will continue to grow.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined. And let the data—not the emotions—guide your decisions.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏛️ Andrew Cuomo Joins OKX’s Board

Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has joined the board of OKX as the exchange continues expanding its U.S. presence.

Cuomo will also serve as co-chair of OKX’s joint venture with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.

The move underscores OKX’s commitment to strengthening its regulatory and institutional footprint in the United States.

🏦 Bank of America Expands Its Digital Asset Strategy

Bank of America has appointed Sonali Theisen to lead its global digital assets platform, further signaling the bank’s commitment to blockchain and tokenization.

Her responsibilities will include:

• Stablecoins

• Tokenized deposits

• Digital asset custody

• Crypto trade settlement

• Bridging blockchain, AI, and traditional finance

This is another example of one of the world’s largest financial institutions investing in the infrastructure that will power the next generation of financial markets.

📈 Citadel Securities Makes Major Bet on Crypto.com

Citadel Securities has invested $400 million into Crypto.com, valuing the exchange at $20 billion.

The investment highlights continued institutional confidence in the digital asset industry and reinforces the trend of major Wall Street firms increasing their exposure to crypto infrastructure.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Discover the power of staking and liquidity pools with FortisX. This platform provides easy and secure ways to earn passive income on your crypto. It is fully audited by CertiK and SEC registered.

GoMining is an All-in-one Bitcoin superapp to mine, earn and use BTC. They have 5 Million+ users and have been live since 2021. Manage assets and generate yield in the GoMining ecosystem.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Mark Wendland, Chairman and CEO of Canton Strategic Holdings, joined me to discuss how the company is leveraging Canton Coin and supporting the Canton Network to accelerate institutional blockchain adoption.

Adrian Wall, Senior Director of U.S. Policy at TRON DAO and Managing Director of the Digital Sovereignty Alliance, joined us to discuss what it will take to get the CLARITY Act across the finish line.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

This is it.

The CLARITY Act is entering its final stretch in the U.S. Senate, and time is not on our side.

If lawmakers don’t fast-track the bill this week, there’s a real possibility it gets delayed for months—or even years.

Here’s why:

• Congress begins its summer recess on August 10.

• The practical deadline to pass the bill is August 7.

• Before becoming law, the bill still needs to:

  1. Pass the Senate

  2. Return to the House for review and another vote

  3. Be signed into law by President Trump

Waiting until later this year isn’t a great option either.

Once we move into late Q3 and Q4, Washington’s attention will shift almost entirely toward the midterm elections, making it much harder to move major legislation.

🇺🇸 Trump Pushes for Action

Earlier today, President Donald Trump urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, warning that China is aggressively pursuing leadership in both crypto and artificial intelligence.

The White House clearly views digital assets as part of America’s strategic competitiveness.

🏛️ Patrick Witt: “We Cannot Afford to Delay”

Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, also emphasized the urgency.

Posting on X, he wrote:

“Critical week for Clarity, which also happens to be the one-year anniversary of GENIUS. A reminder of the incredible amount of hard work that has gone into this bill, but also of the time we’ve already lost. We cannot afford to delay any longer.”

That message highlights just how important the next several days are for the future of U.S. crypto regulation.

⚖️ Opposition Continues

The bill still faces significant political headwinds.

Senator Elizabeth Warren argued today that:

“Without strong ethics guardrails, the CLARITY Act will make it even easier for Donald Trump to continue to profit off his crypto ventures.”

Meanwhile, five Democratic senators have requested committee hearings to investigate the national security implications of President Trump’s cryptocurrency holdings while the Senate considers market structure legislation.

The legislation also continues to face resistance from traditional banks over issues including:

• Stablecoin yield

• DeFi regulation

The outcome remains uncertain.

📊 Bitcoin & Crypto Volatility Continues

While Washington debates crypto regulation, Bitcoin continues trying to establish a market bottom.

We’re seeing encouraging technical signals—but we still don’t have full confirmation.

Here’s where things stand.

📈 Daily Chart

The daily timeframe continues to improve.

• RSI is sitting just below the neutral zone, suggesting there is still room for price to move higher.

• MACD remains bullish, indicating buyers currently have momentum.

If these conditions continue, Bitcoin has a reasonable probability of rallying toward just above $70,000.

Nothing is guaranteed—but the setup remains constructive.

📊 Weekly Chart

The bullish divergence we’ve been tracking continues to develop.

As I’ve mentioned in previous newsletters, this doesn’t guarantee Bitcoin can’t make another lower low.

What it does suggest is that:

• Downside momentum is fading.

• The market is approaching a potential turning point.

That’s exactly what we typically look for near major cycle bottoms.

At the same time, the USDT Dominance weekly chart continues forming a bearish divergence.

Historically, this has often preceded capital rotating:

➡️ Out of stablecoins
➡️ Back into crypto assets

Another encouraging sign for the medium-term outlook.

📅 Monthly Chart

The monthly timeframe may be the most encouraging of all.

The RSI is beginning to reverse from levels similar to those seen during the 2022 bear market—and even lower than the major bear markets of:

• 2018–2019

• 2015

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is beginning to lighten, suggesting bearish momentum is gradually fading.

While we still need confirmation, these are exactly the types of higher-timeframe signals that begin appearing near major bottoms.

🧠 Patience Is the Strategy

No one knows the exact day the market bottoms.

But we can identify a bottom zone.

That’s exactly how I’m approaching the market today.

I’m continuing to accumulate while prices remain heavily discounted and sentiment remains overwhelmingly negative.

Patience remains one of the greatest advantages an investor can have.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🇬🇧 UK’s Tokenization Taskforce Gains Major Wall Street Support

More than 50 financial institutions—including:

• BlackRock

• Goldman Sachs

• JPMorgan Chase

• Morgan Stanley

• Ripple

have joined the UK’s tokenization taskforce to develop live tokenized financial market use cases.

Institutional adoption continues accelerating.

🚗 Hyundai Brings Stablecoin Payments to Avalanche

Hyundai Motor Company has moved a stablecoin-powered cross-border internal remittance system into production readiness on the Avalanche (AVAX) network.

The company becomes the first major South Korean corporation to deploy this type of blockchain payment infrastructure.

🏦 Circle Receives National Trust Bank Approval

Circle, issuer of USDC, has received approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust bank.

This marks another major milestone in integrating digital assets into the U.S. financial system.

🇯🇵 Japan Builds On-Chain Financial Markets

SBI Holdings is partnering with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group to build a Japan-led on-chain financial market on Solana.

The initiative will focus on:

• Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs)

• Stablecoins

• Global capital markets

Another powerful example of institutional adoption moving beyond pilot programs and into real-world deployment.

🧩 Final Thoughts

The next week could be one of the most important periods for the crypto industry this year.

• The CLARITY Act is approaching a critical deadline.

• Bitcoin continues showing signs that a bottom is forming.

• On-chain metrics and higher-timeframe charts remain constructive.

• Institutions around the world continue building on blockchain infrastructure.

Whether you’re investing, trading, or simply observing, this is a time to stay informed—not emotional.

Patience is still the strategy.

___________________________________________

I will be speaking at the MoneyShow Las Vegas event on July 19 - 22nd. Hope to see you there!

Learn more -

https://lasvegasmms.moneyshow.com/?scode=067444

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

GoMining is an All-in-one Bitcoin superapp to mine, earn and use BTC. They have 5 Million+ users and have been live since 2021. Manage assets and generate yield in the GoMining ecosystem.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, joined me to discuss the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

Ashley Ebersole, Co-Founder and Chief Legal Officer of tx, and former Senior Counsel at the SEC, joined me to discuss tx's tokenization solutions and the SEC's upcoming tokenization guidance.

Kevin O'Leary and Mohammed Bakhashwain joined us to discuss Bitzero's Bitcoin mining and AI data center strategy.

Jeff Walton, Chief Risk Officer at Strive, joined me to discuss how the company is building its Bitcoin treasury strategy to drive growth and generate yield.

________________________________________

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🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

The Bitcoin rally almost hit a major roadblock this morning after news broke that Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold a significant amount of Bitcoin.

According to the announcement, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5 at an average price of $60,197.

The market initially reacted negatively, with Bitcoin selling off on the headline. However, the dip didn’t last long. Buyers quickly stepped in, pushing Bitcoin back above $63,000, while several altcoins also resumed their climb higher.

That resilience is encouraging.

📊 The Charts Continue to Improve

We’re seeing more evidence that the bear market bottom is very close—if it isn’t already in.

That doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods yet. We still need additional confirmation, but the technicals continue to improve.

Daily Bitcoin Chart

The daily timeframe is showing constructive signs:

• RSI still has room to move higher, suggesting Bitcoin could continue its relief rally.

• MACD remains bullish, indicating buyers currently have momentum.

If this rally continues, a move toward $70,000 is certainly possible before we see another meaningful pullback.

The Bitcoin MVRV also suggests there is still room for the rally to continue. While the 30 day indicator has moved above the neutral zone, it has yet to reach overheated levels.

Weekly Timeframe Remains Bullish

The higher timeframe continues to support the recovery thesis.

We’re still seeing:

• A bullish divergence forming on Bitcoin’s weekly chart

  

• A bearish divergence on the USDT Dominance weekly chart

  

These are two of the same signals that appeared near previous cycle bottoms.

The Bitcoin divergence suggests downside momentum is fading, while the USDT Dominance divergence implies liquidity may soon rotate out of stablecoins and back into crypto assets.

Taken together, they strengthen the case that we’re approaching a major turning point.

🏛️ A Major Catalyst Could Be Around the Corner

One of the biggest potential catalysts for the market is the CLARITY Act.

Although lawmakers missed the original July 4 target, attention now shifts to the next key deadline:

August 7.

The timing is important because the U.S. Senate begins its summer recess on August 10, returning on September 14.

That leaves a relatively small window to move the legislation forward before Congress breaks.

If the bill advances, it could provide another meaningful boost to market sentiment.

🧠 My Approach

As I’ve mentioned in previous newsletters, I’m continuing to accumulate.

I believe we’re operating inside the bottom zone.

No one can consistently buy the exact bottom.

But history shows that long-term wealth is often built by accumulating when:

• Fear is elevated

• Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative

• Prices are heavily discounted

That’s why I’m taking a long-term view and continuing to dollar-cost average into the market.

It’s an approach you may want to consider as well, depending on your own investment goals and risk tolerance.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🇺🇸 Trump Says Bitcoin Could Be Included in “Trump Accounts”

President Donald Trump suggested today that Bitcoin could eventually play a role in the new Trump Accounts savings program, telling reporters that “something could happen“ when asked whether the accounts might eventually hold Bitcoin.

Yesterday I shared my thoughts regarding the Trump Accounts on X:

“Regardless of your political beliefs, this is a positive development. It helps future generations build wealth as central banks continue debasing fiat currencies, gives children exposure to long-term assets earlier in life, and provides an additional financial safety net in a future increasingly shaped by AI and automation. It could also support markets by creating more long-term holders. I wouldn’t be surprised if crypto exposure is gradually expanded over time.”

🏛️ Major Sheriffs Organization Softens Opposition to CLARITY Act

The Major County Sheriffs of America (MCSA) has shifted from a negative to a neutral position on the CLARITY Act following ongoing discussions surrounding Section 604, also known as the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.

This removes another obstacle as lawmakers continue negotiating the legislation.

🇪🇺 Ripple Receives Full MiCA Approval

Ripple has officially received full MiCA approval, allowing the company to offer regulated crypto services across the European Union.

The approval marks another significant milestone for Ripple’s global expansion.

⚙️ Ethereum Preparing Its Biggest Upgrade Since The Merge

Vitalik Buterin says Ethereum is preparing for its most significant upgrade since The Merge.

The overhaul aims to improve scalability, efficiency, and the long-term performance of the Ethereum network.

🧩 Final Thoughts

Today’s Strategy headline tested the market—but Bitcoin’s quick recovery shows buyers are still stepping in.

The technical picture continues to improve:

• RSI has room to move higher

• Daily MACD remains bullish

• Weekly bullish divergence continues developing

• USDT Dominance is flashing a bearish divergence

Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act could provide an important regulatory catalyst in the weeks ahead.

We’re not at full confirmation yet, but the evidence continues to support the view that we’re in or near the bottoming process.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined. Focus on the long term.

___________________________________________

I will be speaking at the MoneyShow Las Vegas event on July 19 - 22nd. Hope to see you there!

Learn more - https://lasvegasmms.moneyshow.com/?scode=067444

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Michael Blau, Head of Product and CTO at Royal, the company behind Drip, joined me to discuss how the platform is helping writers and content creators get paid in stablecoins when AI agents use their work.

Nathan McCauley, Co-Founder and CEO of Anchorage Digital, joined us to discuss how the firm is helping institutions adopt blockchain technology and utilize crypto.

Denelle Dixon, CEO and Executive Director of the Stellar Development Foundation, joined me to discuss how institutions such as the DTCC and governments, including Bermuda, are adopting the Stellar blockchain.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

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📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

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-Tony

The wild ride in crypto continues.

The bears are celebrating, and the naysayers are once again coming out of the woodwork declaring that Bitcoin is dead and headed to zero.

If you’ve been through multiple crypto cycles, you’ve heard this story before.

Rather than getting caught up in fear, headlines, or emotion, let’s focus on what matters most—the data.

And right now, multiple indicators suggest that the Bitcoin and crypto market bottom is very close, if not already in.

As I’ve mentioned in recent newsletters and podcast episodes, I’m starting to accumulate. Here’s why.

📊 The Data Is Pointing Toward a Bottom

📈 1. Bullish Divergence on the Weekly Bitcoin Chart

One of the strongest signals right now is the bullish divergence forming on Bitcoin’s weekly chart.

While Bitcoin could still experience one final dip, the divergence suggests that downside momentum is fading and a reversal is becoming increasingly likely.

Historically, this has been one of the more reliable indicators that a major bottom is forming.

💵 2. USDT Dominance Is Flashing the Opposite Signal

At the same time, we’re seeing a bearish divergence on the weekly USDT Dominance chart.

This beautifully complements Bitcoin’s setup.

As stablecoin dominance begins to weaken, it typically signals that liquidity is rotating out of stablecoins and back into crypto assets.

That’s exactly what bulls want to see.

⚰️ 3. The Death Cross That Has Marked Previous Bottoms

Analyst Blockchain Backer recently shared a compelling chart showing the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Average death cross.

While “death cross” sounds ominous, history tells a different story.

Previous occurrences have actually aligned with major Bitcoin bottoms rather than the beginning of prolonged declines.

Sometimes the scariest headlines appear at the best buying opportunities.

📅 4. The Six-Month Chart Is Repeating History

Another fascinating observation comes from Bitcoin’s six-month chart.

Historically:

• Two consecutive red six-month candles

• Followed by approximately three years of upside

The second red six-month candle closes in just one day.

Of course, history doesn’t have to repeat exactly.

But when viewed alongside the other signals, it strengthens the case that we’re approaching an important turning point.

📉 5. Bitcoin Supply in Loss Is at Historic Levels

One of the strongest on-chain signals is Bitcoin Supply in Loss.

Today, that metric has climbed to levels that exceed previous bear market bottoms.

In simple terms:

A massive percentage of Bitcoin holders are underwater.

Historically, when that happens, selling pressure eventually exhausts itself and long-term investors begin stepping in.

📊 6. MVRV Remains Deep Underwater

Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV has remained below zero for an extended period.

Combined with:

• Extreme fear

• Oversold technicals

• Weakening bearish momentum

…it creates the type of environment where relief rallies often begin.

📉 7. Bear Markets Are Becoming Less Severe

One of my favorite charts this week comes from River, showing every Bitcoin bear market since inception.

The trend is clear:

Each bear market has produced smaller drawdowns than the one before.

This cycle, Bitcoin declined approximately 53% from its October 2025 all-time high to the recent $58,000 low.

That’s significantly shallower than previous cycles.

As Bitcoin matures and institutional adoption increases, extreme volatility appears to be slowly decreasing.

🤔 Could Bitcoin Still Drop Into the $40Ks?

Absolutely.

Some analysts continue calling for:

• Bitcoin in the $40,000 range

• A final bottom sometime around October 2026, following the historical 12-month bear market duration

That scenario remains possible.

But based on the technical and on-chain evidence discussed above, I believe it’s becoming the lower-probability outcome.

🧠 My Take

No one can consistently call the exact bottom.

But we can identify a bottom zone.

And that’s exactly what I believe we’re seeing today.

The majority of the downside appears to be behind us.

That’s why I’m personally accumulating.

I’m not expecting an immediate move to new all-time highs.

Instead, I believe the higher-probability scenario is:

• A meaningful relief rally

• A higher low forming

• The market beginning the long process of climbing out of this bear market

Recovery won’t happen overnight.

But I do believe we’re much closer to the end than the beginning.

Stay patient.

Stay disciplined.

And remember—markets are cyclical.

The moments of maximum fear often create the greatest long-term opportunities.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏦 Strategy Authorizes Bitcoin Monetization Program

Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, has authorized a new Bitcoin monetization program that gives the company flexibility to sell a portion of its BTC holdings if needed.

The program allows Strategy to:

• Strengthen its balance sheet

• Maintain reserves for its perpetual preferred securities

• Support preferred dividend payments

• Fund up to $2 billion in share buybacks

While the authorization doesn’t mean the company plans to immediately sell Bitcoin, it represents a notable shift by giving management greater flexibility in how it manages its treasury assets.

📈 Securitize Heads to the NYSE

Tokenization platform Securitize is set to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SECZ on July 2.

The company is expected to raise approximately $400 million through its SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners, marking another major milestone for the tokenization industry as blockchain-native companies continue entering the public markets.

🇺🇦 Ukraine Moves Toward a National Crypto Reserve

Ukraine has transferred $8.3 million in seized USDT into state management as lawmakers continue exploring the creation of a national crypto reserve.

The move signals growing interest among governments in treating digital assets as strategic reserves and could pave the way for broader state-level adoption of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

BitGo is the leading infrastructure provider of digital asset solutions, offering custody, wallets, staking, and trading.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Santhosh Srinivasan, VP of Treasury at Nium, joined us to discuss the firm’s partnership with Coinbase to enable USDC payments for banks, fintechs, and enterprises worldwide.

Avery Ching, Co-Founder & CEO at Aptos Labs, joined me to discuss the latest developments on the Aptos blockchain, including privacy, AI, and more.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

Market volatility has returned.

The escalating conflict with Iran is adding uncertainty across global markets and appears to be slowing Bitcoin’s relief rally. While the situation remains fluid, it’s important to separate emotion from data and focus on what the charts and on-chain metrics are telling us.

Let’s break down the good and the bad.

🟢 The Good News

Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin continues to show several constructive signals.

📈 Daily Chart Still Favors the Bulls

The Bitcoin daily chart shows:

• MACD remains bullish, indicating buyers still have control of momentum.

• RSI is nowhere near overbought, suggesting there is still room for price to move higher.

• Bitcoin continues to hold support above the 200-Week Moving Average, one of the most important long-term indicators in crypto.

In addition, Bitcoin appears to be forming the early stages of an ascending channel, which could support higher prices if the structure remains intact.

📊 MVRV Indicates More Upside Potential

Another encouraging signal comes from Bitcoin’s 30-Day MVRV.

The metric remains below the neutral line, indicating that short-term holders are not excessively in profit.

Historically, this leaves room for price appreciation before the market reaches overheated conditions.

🔥 Weekly Bullish Divergence Forming

One of the most important developments is the potential bullish divergence forming on the weekly chart.

For those unfamiliar:

A bullish divergence occurs when:

• Price makes lower lows

• A momentum indicator makes higher lows

This often signals a potential reversal to the upside.

Conversely, a bearish divergence occurs when:

• Price makes higher highs

• Momentum indicators make lower highs

The current setup suggests Bitcoin may be building a stronger foundation than many realize.

🔴 The Bad News

Of course, there are reasons for caution.

⚠️ Weekly MACD Near Bearish Flip

That same weekly Bitcoin chart shows the MACD is close to flipping bearish.

If that occurs, it would indicate weakening momentum on a higher timeframe and could delay or weaken the relief rally.

This is one of the most important indicators to watch over the coming weeks.

📉 Stock Market Showing Weakness

The stock market is beginning to flash warning signs.

Both the:

• S&P 500

• Nasdaq

are showing daily chart MACDs with bears in control.

If equities continue lower, crypto will likely face additional pressure.

As we’ve seen repeatedly throughout this cycle, Bitcoin and altcoins remain highly sensitive to broader risk sentiment.

🤔 What Happens Next?

The most likely scenarios remain:

Bullish Scenario

• Bitcoin holds key support

• Weekly bullish divergence confirms

• Relief rally continues higher

• Altcoins participate in the move

Bearish Scenario

• Stock market weakness intensifies

• Weekly MACD flips bearish

• Geopolitical tensions worsen

• Bitcoin loses support and revisits lower levels

At this point, there are no certainties—only probabilities.

Patience remains critical.

The market will ultimately decide which path to take.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏦 Baillie Gifford Launches Tokenized Bond Fund

118-year-old investment firm Baillie Gifford launched a tokenized corporate bond fund on:

• Ethereum

• Solana

The fund offers approximately 7% yield, with BNY providing tokenization infrastructure.

Another major TradFi player moves on-chain.

📈 OKX and ICE Partner on Tokenized Markets

OKX and Intercontinental Exchange are launching a joint venture aimed at connecting traditional finance and crypto through:

• Tokenized equities

• Tokenized futures

The initiative will be led by Andrew Cuomo, pending regulatory approval.

🌐 MoneyGram Becomes Solana Validator

MoneyGram has become a validator on the Solana network.

The company also joined the Solana Developer Platform.

Solana is now the third blockchain where MoneyGram operates an official validator.

🦁 Tech Giants Fight Illegal Wildlife Trade

Major firms including:

• Google

• Meta

• PayPal

• Chainalysis

have committed to using AI and blockchain analytics to combat the illegal wildlife trade.

A reminder that blockchain technology continues to find meaningful real-world applications.

🇯🇵 Japanese Pension Fund Allocates to Crypto

Japan’s National Business Corporate Pension Fund announced plans to allocate 1% of its assets to cryptocurrencies.

Institutional adoption continues to expand globally despite market volatility.

🧩 Final Thoughts

The Iran conflict has unquestionably increased uncertainty.

But despite the volatility:

• Bitcoin remains above key support.

• Daily momentum still favors bulls.

• MVRV remains constructive.

• A weekly bullish divergence is forming.

At the same time:

• The weekly MACD is at risk.

• Stocks are weakening.

• Geopolitical risks remain elevated.

This is a market at a crossroads.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined.

The next few weeks should provide much more clarity on whether this relief rally still has room to run.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

BitGo is the leading infrastructure provider of digital asset solutions, offering custody, wallets, staking, and trading.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Ayo Akinyele, Head of Engineering at RippleX, joined us to discuss the development and adoption of the XRP Ledger by institutions and more.

Chris Giancarlo, former CFTC Chairman, author of Crypto Dad: The Fight for the Future of Money, and Senior Strategic Advisor at Patomak Global Partners, joined me to discuss the latest developments in crypto in the U.S.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

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📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

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-Tony

We’re finally seeing signs of recovery as Bitcoin is moving higher once again.

As highlighted in last week’s newsletter, the market was experiencing a rare combination of:

• Historic oversold conditions

• Extreme fear sentiment

• Mainstream panic

We even had Jim Cramer screaming from the mountaintops that Michael Saylor’s Strategy had “killed Bitcoin” after selling 32 BTC.

Those types of headlines often appear near important market turning points.

And now we’re seeing the market respond.

📊 Bitcoin Technicals Improving

The Bitcoin daily chart is showing encouraging signs:

RSI Moving Higher

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving away from the oversold zone, signaling that selling pressure is easing and buyers are stepping back in.

MACD Flips Bullish

The MACD has completed a bullish cross and momentum is beginning to shift back toward the bulls.

This doesn’t guarantee a sustained uptrend, but it’s exactly what we want to see after such an extreme washout.

🟢 Weekly Chart Starting to Recover

The recent rally is also helping save the weekly timeframe.

The bulls momentum is hanging on by a thread. If Bitcoin can continue moving higher from here, it will help preserve bullish momentum and prevent a deeper breakdown on higher timeframes.

A very positive sign is we are seeing early signs of a bullish divergence forming on the weekly chart RSI.

The next several weeks will be critical.

📈 MVRV Signals Improvement

Another encouraging development is Bitcoin’s MVRV data.

The 30-day trader cohort is moving back toward the neutral zone, suggesting that the market is beginning to stabilize after a period of significant unrealized losses.

Historically, these transitions often occur near major turning points.

⚠️ This Is Still a Relief Rally

As I’ve stated in previous newsletters:

This is not a move to new all-time highs.

At least not yet.

We’re still operating within a broader bear market framework, and it’s entirely possible that Bitcoin moves lower once this relief rally completes.

However...

It’s also possible that the bear market bottom is already in.

Even Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, recently suggested that the bottom may be behind us.

He isn’t guaranteeing it—but he has stated that he’s bullish.

🧠 My Approach

The worst of the bear market appears to be behind us.

Personally, I’m accumulating.

No one can consistently call the exact bottom.

But what we can do is identify the bottom zone—a period where:

• Prices are heavily discounted

• Sentiment is overwhelmingly negative

• Fear dominates the conversation

• Long-term opportunities emerge

That’s exactly the environment we’re in today.

When there’s blood in the streets, opportunities tend to appear.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🚀 SpaceX Goes Public With Massive Bitcoin Treasury

SpaceX officially went public on Nasdaq on June 12.

The IPO introduced what may be the largest Bitcoin position ever attached to a public offering.

According to its S-1 filing:

• Holdings: 18,712 BTC

• Purchase cost: approximately $661 million

• Value as of March 31: approximately $1.29 billion

SpaceX described Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for excess cash.

This is another major validation of Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset.

🏦 BlackRock Launches Bitcoin Income ETF

BlackRock is preparing to launch the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BITA).

The fund aims to provide:

• Bitcoin exposure

• Income generation through options strategies

• A yield-focused alternative for traditional investors

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expects trading to begin around June 18.

This could attract an entirely new class of investors seeking income from Bitcoin exposure.

🤖 Mastercard Launches Agent Pay for Machines

Mastercard unveiled Agent Pay for Machines, a platform enabling AI agents and smart devices to execute transactions autonomously.

Initial blockchain and crypto partners include:

• Aave

• Coinbase

• OKX

• Polygon

• Ripple

• Solana

The initiative opens the door for machine-to-machine commerce powered by blockchain infrastructure.

🧩 Final Thoughts

The market is finally showing signs of life.

• RSI is recovering

• MACD has turned bullish

• Fear is beginning to subside

• On-chain metrics are improving

Most importantly, we’re seeing the exact type of conditions that historically emerge near major bottoms.

That doesn’t mean volatility is over.

It doesn’t mean we can’t see another pullback.

But it does mean that the risk-reward profile continues to improve for long-term investors.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined.

The opportunities are often greatest when most people have already given up.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

BitGo is the leading infrastructure provider of digital asset solutions, offering custody, wallets, staking, and trading.

thedigitalfuture.xyz - Emerging technology moves faster than most realize, and the rules get written as you go. More opportunity, more risk, and every founder asking the same things: where to focus, how to scale, whether AI can just do it all. It can’t. AI is powerful, but it doesn’t replace decades of experience, human instinct, and judgment calls. The Digital Future embeds a senior leader, fractionally, inside your business, with a team to scale your brand, strategy, and communications across crypto, fintech, and AI.

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___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Grant Cardone, Founder and CEO of Cardone Capital, joined us to discuss his firm pairing Bitcoin with real estate investments, offering investors unique exposure to both asset classes.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

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-Tony

It’s bloody out there.

Both the crypto market and stock market are experiencing strong pullbacks, but let’s focus on crypto.

Clearly, the relief rally we’ve been tracking for months has come to an end. Bitcoin broke down and revisited the lows we saw back in February.

At first glance, that sounds terrible.

But here’s the good news—and why I’m turning extremely bullish.

Fear Is Back. Extreme Fear.

The crypto market has once again entered extreme fear territory.

We’re seeing mainstream commentators pile on. Jim Cramer recently declared that Michael Saylor’s “murdered Bitcoin” because the company sold 32 BTC.

Think about that for a moment.

The market is panicking over a sale of 32 BTC from a company that holds hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin.

That’s the kind of irrational sentiment that often appears near major turning points.

The Real Signal: Extreme Oversold Conditions

The most important factor right now isn’t the headlines—it’s the charts.

The RSI on both Bitcoin and Ethereum’s daily charts has reached historic oversold levels, even worse than what we saw during the February 2026 selloff.

These are the types of conditions that typically occur when sellers become exhausted.

Markets don’t move in one direction forever.

They’re cyclical.

And when fear reaches extremes while technical indicators become deeply oversold, the setup for a major reversal begins to form.

Bears Are Losing Momentum

Another encouraging signal:

The MACD on both Bitcoin and Ethereum is showing bearish momentum fading.

While price has continued to struggle, momentum indicators are telling us that the selling pressure is weakening.

This doesn’t mean we immediately moon from here.

But it does suggest the market may be approaching an important inflection point.

Bitcoin Is Back in the Cheap Zone

According to analysis from Crypto Currently, Bitcoin has now entered the cheap zone and is approaching the very cheap zone.

Historically, these zones have presented some of the best long-term opportunities for patient investors.

I’m personally buying the dip.

Not because I know exactly where the bottom is—but because the risk/reward is becoming increasingly attractive.

The February Sweep Looks Bullish

One of the most constructive developments from this recent selloff is that Bitcoin made a very clean sweep of the February lows.

Even more importantly:

Bitcoin managed to reclaim and close back above the 200-Week Moving Average.

Historically, the 200WMA has served as one of the most important long-term support levels in crypto.

Holding above it strengthens the bullish case significantly.

It’s important to note that the Bitcoin MVRV is at levels not seen since February 2026 showing both short term and long term traders are underwater.

Patience Is Still Required

I want to be clear:

This doesn’t mean we’re going straight up from here.

The market still needs time to process the recent volatility.

There may be additional chop.

There may be more fear.

But when I look at:

• Extreme fear sentiment

• Historic oversold conditions

• Fading bearish momentum

• Bitcoin entering the cheap zone

• A successful retest of major support

I can’t ignore how bullish this setup is becoming.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏦 Major U.S. Banks Building Tokenized Deposit Network

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and other major lenders plan to launch a shared tokenized deposit network through by the first half of 2027.

The goal:

• 24/7 settlement

• Blockchain-based bank deposits

• Faster transfers and payments

This is the banking industry’s answer to stablecoins like USDC and USDT.

🏢 Goldman Sachs Enters Tokenized Real Estate

Investment bank Goldman Sachs has teamed up with fund servicing giant Apex Group and digital asset exchange Archax to tokenize real estate. Infrastructure provider Ownera and real estate investment manager LRC Group are also included in the debut of the blockchain-native real estate fund. The tokenization trend continues to accelerate.

💳 Mastercard Expands Stablecoin Settlement

MasterCard has expanded settlement capabilities to support regulated stablecoins including:

• USDC

• RLUSD

• PYUSD

Across:

• Ethereum

• Solana

• Base

• Arbitrum

• XRP Ledger

This pushes Mastercard closer to an always-on, blockchain-powered settlement network.

🌍 Stripe, Visa & Mastercard Building Stablecoin Platform

Global payment networks Stripe, Visa and Mastercard are close to introducing a new stablecoin platform, according to three people familiar with the plans. U.S.-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) is also looking into the possibility of participating in the stablecoin platform, one of the people said.

The world’s largest payment companies continue moving deeper into crypto infrastructure.

🧩 Final Thoughts

When markets are euphoric, everyone wants to buy.

When markets are in extreme fear, most people want to sell.

Yet history has shown that some of the greatest opportunities emerge when sentiment reaches maximum pessimism.

I’m not saying we’ve definitively seen the bottom.

But I am saying that:

• Fear is extreme

• Technicals are washed out

• Sellers appear exhausted

• Institutions continue building

And that’s why I’m becoming increasingly bullish on what comes next.

Stay patient. Stay objective.

The market may be setting up for something much bigger than most people realize.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

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📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Marc Boiron, CEO of Polygon Labs, joined us to discuss the growing adoption of stablecoins and tokenization on the Polygon blockchain.

Xen Baynham-Herd, Head of Growth at Base, joined us to discuss the growing adoption of Coinbase's Base network.

Eunice Giarta, Co-Founder and General Manager at the Monad Foundation, joined me to discuss how Monad, as a high-performance Layer 1 blockchain, is aiming to address the scalability limitations of existing networks such as Ethereum.

________________________________________

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-Tony

All eyes are on the Bitcoin chart right now.

Bitcoin is sitting at a pivotal level where the next move could determine whether:

• The relief rally continues
  or

• We begin another major leg down in the bear market

Here’s where things stand.

📊 Bitcoin Losing the Rising Channel

Bitcoin is starting to break down from the rising channel it has been trading in since the rally from the $58,000 low set in February to the recent $82,000 high in May.

This is a very important structure to watch.

🎯 Key Level: $70,500

Bitcoin absolutely needs to hold the $70,500 level.

If it loses that support:

• The probability of a bear flag breakdown increases significantly

• Lower price targets come into play

This is the line in the sand for bulls right now.

🟢 The Bullish Signal: RSI Oversold

One positive sign:

👉 The daily RSI is back in the oversold zone.

By textbook technical analysis:

• Oversold conditions usually precede a bounce

• Short-term relief rallies often begin from these levels

Adding to this:

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to make new highs

  

That broader market strength is supportive for crypto.

🔴 The Bearish Signals

Despite the oversold RSI, there are still reasons for caution.

Daily MACD

• Bears remain in control

Weekly MACD

• Bulls continue losing momentum

Momentum indicators are still favoring downside pressure overall.

🧠 The Saylor/Strategy Psychological Impact

Another development adding fuel to bearish sentiment:

Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced the sale of 32 BTC for over $2.5 million.

Now, financially speaking:

• This amount is tiny relative to their holdings

But psychologically?
👉 It matters.

For years, Saylor’s message was:

“Never sell your Bitcoin.”

So even a small sale changes investor perception and introduces uncertainty into the narrative.

🪙 Altcoins Will Follow Bitcoin

As always:

• Altcoins will move with Bitcoin

• If BTC breaks down → alts likely dump harder

• If BTC holds support and bounces → alts should rally as well

The ideal bullish scenario here is:

✅ Bitcoin holds $70,500
✅ Bears get trapped
✅ A short squeeze ignites the next leg higher

That’s what bulls need.

⏳ Patience Is Critical

There are no guarantees here — only probabilities.

The market is at a decision point and we need confirmation before making strong conclusions.

Patience and discipline remain key.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏦 Jamie Dimon Attacks Stablecoin Yield

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, criticized and warned that the current CLARITY Act framework could fail over stablecoin yield disputes.

Dimon stated:

“The banks will not accept it that way… it will eventually blow up.”

The core conflict:

• Banks oppose yield-bearing stablecoins

• Crypto firms see them as essential innovation

This battle remains one of the biggest sticking points in U.S. crypto legislation.

🌐 DTCC Selects Stellar for Tokenized Securities

U.S. clearing giant DTCC picked Stellar as the first public blockchain to connect to its upcoming tokenized securities settlement platform.

The integration includes:

• Compliance tools

• Identity controls

• Transfer restrictions

• Asset clawback functionality

This is another massive institutional step toward tokenized capital markets.

📈 U.S. Approves Bitcoin Perpetual Futures

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has given approval for bitcoin perpetual futures contracts on a regulated exchange run by Kalshi

This marks:
👉 The first domestic U.S.-regulated Bitcoin perpetuals market.

The CFTC also approved a path for a Coinbase affiliate to offer global options and perpetual futures access.

🇺🇸 Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill Introduced

Congressman Nick Begich (AK-AL) and co-lead Congressman Jared Golden (ME-02) have introduced the:

American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026 (ARMA)

The bill would establish:
👉 A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the U.S. Treasury.

The legislation launched with:

• 17 bipartisan co-sponsors

• Support spanning multiple states

Momentum behind a U.S. Bitcoin reserve continues growing.

🧩 Final Thoughts

Bitcoin is at a critical technical level.

• RSI says a bounce is near

• MACD says caution

• Stocks remain supportive

• Macro uncertainty remains elevated

The next move from here could shape the next phase of the market.

👉 Hold support and rally higher
or
👉 Lose support and revisit much lower prices

Stay patient. Stay objective.
And let the market confirm direction before getting overly bullish or bearish.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

BitGo is the leading infrastructure provider of digital asset solutions, offering custody, wallets, staking, and trading.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

Uphold is one of the best crypto exchanges out there and I have been using them since 2018!

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Dennis Porter, Co-Founder and CEO of Satoshi Action Fund, joined me to discuss the new U.S. Bitcoin Reserve bill and the likelihood of the U.S. government being able to buy Bitcoin for its reserve.

Ryan Rugg, Global Head of Digital Assets for Citibank’s TTS business, joined us at the Solana Policy Institute’s Summit to discuss Citibank’s digital asset, tokenization and blockchain initiatives. We dive into the nuances of tokenized deposits and stablecoins and much more.

Austin Federa, Co-Founder of DoubleZero and former Head of Strategy at the Solana Foundation, joined us to discuss how the company is building a new internet layer to improve blockchain and crypto performance.

Christopher Perkins, CEO of 250 Digital Asset Management, joined us to discuss Franklin Templeton launching a dedicated cryptocurrency division with a planned acquisition of crypto investment firm 250 Digital.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

The crypto relief rally is running into a major roadblock.

Bitcoin failed to break through:

• $82,000 resistance

• The 200-Day Moving Average

That’s not what bulls wanted to see.

And naturally, altcoins — which had started showing strength — are now pulling back alongside BTC.

📊 Where Things Stand

Despite the pullback, Bitcoin is still trading within its rising channel.

However…

If BTC drops toward the bottom of the channel around $71,000, the probability increases that we complete a bear flag breakdown, potentially sending Bitcoin into the:

• Low $50Ks

• Or even high $40Ks

That’s the bearish setup currently on the table.

⚠️ Momentum Is Weakening

Some concerning signals:

🔻 Daily MACD flipped bearish

Momentum has shifted back toward sellers on the short timeframe.

📉 Weekly MACD shows bulls losing momentum

This doesn’t mean immediate collapse — but it does show the rally is weakening.

🎯 Key Level: $75K

Bitcoin absolutely must:

• Hold above $75,000

• Print an impulsive bounce

  

If that happens:
👉 The rally still has a chance to continue and eventually break through $82K.

If not…
👉 The bearish scenario becomes much more likely.

📉 Stock Market Pullback Adds Pressure

The stock market was overheated and finally started correcting.

Both the:

• S&P 500

• Nasdaq

were sitting deep in the overbought zone.

A pullback was expected — and crypto is now feeling the pressure from broader risk-off sentiment.

🔮 What Happens Next?

🟢 Scenario 1 — Relief Rally Continues

• Stock market sees only a shallow pullback

• Bitcoin holds $75K support

• BTC resumes rally in coming weeks

• Altcoins follow higher

This remains the more constructive scenario.

🔴 Scenario 2 — Deeper Bear Market Leg

• Stock market correction intensifies

• Geopolitical fears escalate (Iran war, etc.)

• Bitcoin breaks support

• BTC drops into:

  • Low $50Ks

  • Or high $40Ks

This is the major risk setup right now.

🧠 Why Scenario 1 Still Has Higher Probability

A couple important macro signals stand out:

🚀 SpaceX Accelerates IPO Timeline

Reports indicate SpaceX is targeting a June 12 Nasdaq listing.

Let’s be realistic:

• Elon Musk is not going to rush an IPO into a collapsing market

• Companies go public during bullish environments — not crashes

That’s an important sentiment signal.

🏛️ CLARITY Act Progress + Bitcoin Reserve Update

After advancing through the Senate Banking Committee, the CLARITY Act is expected to continue progressing through the Senate.

In addition:
Patrick Witt, White House crypto advisor, recently stated a major Strategic Bitcoin Reserve update is coming soon.

Both developments are long-term bullish catalysts for crypto.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🇮🇷 Iran Launching Bitcoin Maritime Insurance Platform

Iran is reportedly launching Hormuz Safe, a Bitcoin-settled maritime insurance platform targeting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf.

Projected revenue:
👉 Over $10 billion

Ironically, this situation could accelerate the U.S. government’s push toward acquiring Bitcoin for its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

🏦 JPMorgan Expands Tokenization on Ethereum

JPMorgan Chase filed to launch a tokenized Treasury money-market fund on Ethereum: JPMorgan OnChain Liquidity-Token Money Market Fund

The product is designed to help stablecoin issuers meet reserve requirements under the GENIUS Act.

🌍 Bermuda Moves National Economy Onchain

The Bermuda government is partnering with the Stellar Development Foundation to migrate parts of its national economy onto the Stellar network.

Use cases include:

• Payments

• Financial services

• Government infrastructure

💰 Circle’s Arc Blockchain Raises $222M

Circle raised $222 million in the presale of a token tied to its new Arc blockchain.

Key investors include:

• Andreessen Horowitz

• BlackRock

• Apollo Global Management

• Intercontinental Exchange

The network now carries a fully diluted valuation of $3 billion.

🧩 Final Thoughts

The market is at a critical crossroads.

• Bitcoin failed at major resistance

• Momentum is weakening

• Stocks are pulling back

But:

• Key support still holds

• Macro catalysts remain positive

• Institutions continue building aggressively

The next few weeks will likely determine whether:
👉 This relief rally continues
or
👉 The bear market resumes in full force

Stay patient. Stay disciplined.
And let the charts confirm the next move.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

BitGo is the leading infrastructure provider of digital asset solutions, offering custody, wallets, staking, and trading.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

Uphold is one of the best crypto exchanges out there and I have been using them since 2018!

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Landon Zinda, Counsel to the Chairman and Senior Advisor for the Crypto Task Force at the Securities and Exchange Commission, sat down with us at the Solana Policy Institute’s Summit to discuss the SEC’s guidance on crypto securities, crypto wallets, tokenization, the Clarity Act, and more.

Morgan Krupetsky, Vice President of Onchain Finance at Ava Labs, sat down with me to discuss the latest adoption news for Avalanche and AVAX.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon

-Tony

Bitcoin had its run… and now it is the Altcoins’ turn.

This doesn’t mean Bitcoin is done — but if we stick to the thesis that this is a relief rally, then BTC has likely completed the majority of its upside move… even if it pushes toward $85K.

Now, all eyes are shifting to Altcoins — and the data is starting to confirm it.

📊 Market Breadth Is Expanding

One of the clearest signals:

👉 The TOTAL3 chart (altcoin market cap excluding BTC & ETH) has broken out.

• MACD has flipped bullish

• Structure looks similar to when Bitcoin started its rally

This is exactly what we want to see when capital rotates into altcoins.

🚀 Altcoin Breakouts Already Happening

We’re not just seeing theory — we’re seeing action.

Projects like SUI and ONDO are already showing strong breakout patterns, leading the early phase of this move.

📉 Bitcoin Dominance Breaking Down

Another key confirmation:

👉 Bitcoin Dominance is dropping

This signals:

• Capital rotating out of BTC

• Liquidity flowing into altcoins

Historically, this is one of the strongest indicators of an altcoin rally phase beginning.

⏳ Still Early — Large Caps Haven’t Moved Yet

Despite the early signals, we’re still in the early innings.

We’re waiting for confirmation from major players like:

• Ethereum

• XRP

• Solana

Once these large caps begin to rally:
👉 That’s when the move becomes broad and powerful

Patience is key here.

🏛️ Catalysts Fueling the Move

There are also strong narratives supporting this rotation:

🟢 CLARITY Act Progress

The crypto market structure bill is moving into the markup phase, a major step forward for regulation.

🇺🇸 U.S. Bitcoin Reserve Update Incoming

We’re expecting a major update from the Trump administration this week.

👉 Be sure to check out my interview with Cody Carbone where we break this down in detail.

These narratives are helping drive confidence and capital into the market.

📈 Stocks Still Supporting Crypto

The broader market is also providing tailwinds:

• S&P 500 → New all-time highs

• Nasdaq → New all-time highs

• Russell 2000 → New all-time highs

This risk-on environment is exactly what crypto needs.

⚠️ But Don’t Ignore the Risks

We have to stay grounded.

🔴 Stock Market Is Overheated

• RSI is in overbought territory

• A pullback could happen at any time

🌍 Geopolitical Risk

• The Iran conflict could escalate

• That could trigger a broad market correction

If stocks pull back hard, crypto will likely follow.

🧩 Final Thoughts

The rotation is beginning.

• Bitcoin led the move

• Altcoins are starting to wake up

• Breadth is expanding

• Dominance is dropping

But we’re still early.

👉 Watch for large caps to confirm
👉 Watch the stock market closely
👉 Stay patient and disciplined

The next phase of the market is unfolding.

___________________________________________

💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

Learn about iTrustCapital’s powerful Premium Custody Account (PCA) and tax-advantaged Crypto IRA platforms. Get an exclusive $100 funding bonus!

BitGo is the leading infrastructure provider of digital asset solutions, offering custody, wallets, staking, and trading.

Trezor produces quality crypto hardware wallets that make it easy for you to safely store your assets. It pioneered the development of self-custody for crypto assets, empowering individuals with an open-source device that enables secure and independent storage of cryptocurrencies.

Uphold is one of the best crypto exchanges out there and I have been using them since 2018!

___________________________________________

📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

___________________________________________

📺 Recent Interviews

Morgan Krupetsky, Vice President of Onchain Finance at Ava Labs, sat down with me to discuss the latest adoption news for Avalanche and AVAX.

James Seyffart, Senior Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, sat down with us at the Solana Policy Institute's Summit to discuss Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock's potential altcoin ETFs, outlook on the crypto ETF market, and much more.

Frank Holmes, Co-Founder of HIVE Blockchain Technologies, joined me to discuss the current state of Bitcoin mining and HIVE’s AI data center solutions.

________________________________________

Support the Podcast

🖥️ Crypto Course

Learn Crypto with Expert Commentary from Founders, CEOs, and Institutional Investors. MyCryptoCourse.com

📖 ReThinking Crypto Book

Get the book on Amazon