Chapter 3:

The art of getting out, and the power of time

Let’s go back to the table in Las Vegas.

Imagine you get that pair of aces. You push your chips in, and the game goes well. Now there is a mountain of chips in front of you.

But there is a problem.

Nobody gets rich by stacking plastic on a table. Those chips don’t pay the mortgage. They don’t pay for your holidays. They are coloured plastic until you stand up, walk to the cashier and change them for money.

Stay at the table long enough, and sooner or later a bad hand comes. The mountain disappears as fast as it came.

The market works exactly the same way. And this is where almost all of us fail.

What nobody tells you

Everyone is obsessed with the entry. What do I buy?

They are wrong.

Anyone can get lucky and buy something that goes up. After one year, more than 70% of stocks o up. The hard part is selling it and keeping the money.

The entry gets all the attention. The exit decides whether you keep the money.

Remember the scene from chapter 1? You buy a stock. It rises 30%, 40%, 70%. You feel like a genius.

Then the market turns, the questions start, and the 70% evaporates.

Here is that same trade, with two different endings.

The trader with a plan does not sell at the top. Nobody does, except by luck. He sells where he decided to sell before he bought. He misses the last part of the rise, and he keeps the rest.

The other trader leaves all his chips on the table. And the table takes them back.

You may be thinking: “And what if I sell, and it keeps going up?”

Sometimes it will. You will watch it climb without you, and it will hurt.

Look at the picture again. With a plan, he kept a gain of 40%. Without one, he ended with a loss of 8%.

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The cost of being stuck

There is another reason to get out on time.

Imagine you are stuck in a hand that never ends. It doesn’t win and it doesn’t lose. It just goes on and on, with all your chips inside.

Then the dealer deals the next hand. Two aces again. The perfect chance.

You look at your chips and you see the problem. You can’t play. Your chips are locked inside the last hand, that average trade you never closed.

In the market, money has to move. A trade that goes nowhere is dead money. It earns nothing. Worse, it is not there when the next good hand arrives.

A clock solves this.

Take the hand from chapter 2. Over thirty years and tens of thousands of cases, it paid 3.1% on average in 20 trading days. Buying the S&P 500 on any day and holding it for 20 days paid 0.9%. More than three times as much.

That 3.1% was measured with a clock: buy on the day the pattern appears, sell 20 trading days later. Win or lose, the hand ends that day, and your chips come back to you.

The exit is part of the hand. Change the exit and the 3.1% no longer applies. It is a different hand, and it has to be counted again.

Getting out on time gives your chips back.

The end of anxiety

Do you know why you suffer when you trade? Why you check your phone every five minutes, with your heart racing?

In this system we take fear out of the game. Before you put a single chip on the table, you already know where you will get out.

It is a contract you sign with yourself: “If the price gets here, I cash out and leave.” Or: “On this day, I leave, whatever happens.”

No doubts. No emotions.

You don’t need to stare at a screen all day. You probably have a job, and a life. The decision was made on a calm day, before any money was at risk.

Later in this book I will give you the exact rules to place that exit. No guessing. We build every trade so the maths is on our side. Either we win much more than we risk, or we win much more often than we lose.

Let me tell you the other side of my story from chapter 1.

Years after that disaster, once I had a system, the opposite happened. I bought with my exit decided in advance. The price went up and reached my exit. I sold without a second thought.

A few weeks later, the price collapsed.

The old me would have stayed in. “It’s an excellent company,” he would have said. And he would have given back the whole gain.

The new me was already out. Money in my pocket. Chips ready for the next hand.

I wasn’t smarter. I just had a rule, and I followed it.

Because in the end, this game is not about being right. It is about having the money, and having it ready for the next big hand.

Next chapter: the art of losing. One question almost nobody asks before buying a stock, and a rule so short it fits in one sentence. It is the rule that keeps you at the table long enough to see the aces.

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In one line: knowing what to buy is not knowing how to trade. Today, what the professional does instead.

Chapter 2:

The art of getting in, and the power of keeping it simple

In any casino there is one kind of player who always loses in the long run. The one who plays every hand.

He gets bored if he is not in the action. He sees a pair of jacks and he’s in. He sees a seven and a five and he’s in, “just in case”. It always ends the same way. He runs out of chips before the good hand arrives.

You are going to be different. You are not going to give your chips away. You will only move when the edge is huge.

A professional poker player spends most of his time doing one thing: folding. He throws away the bad cards. He throws away the average ones. And he waits. He knows that putting money on a doubtful hand is the fastest road to ruin. But when he lifts his cards and sees that pair of aces, he doesn’t hesitate. The wait is over.

The noise and the signal

Why is it so hard to wait for the aces? Because the table is noisy. The other players talk, bluff and try to make you nervous.

In the market, that noise is the news, the forums and the analysts on TV.

It is a show designed to distract you. And while you listen to the shouting, the winning hand has already been played without you.

To win this game, you need to understand one thing. The market has only two truths that cannot lie: price (the cards on the table) and volume (how many chips are being bet).

Everything else is opinion.

If you stop listening to rumours and focus on what the price is really doing, you stop guessing. You start playing like a professional.

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One hand, played to perfection

This book will not teach you a hundred strategies. It will teach you to recognise one single hand: one specific shape on the chart. The equivalent of holding two aces before anyone else at the table knows what is going on.

You may be wondering: “Just one pattern? Does that really work?”

You will find it on charts from a hundred years ago and on charts from last week, on Wall Street and in Europe. Why? Because the psychology of the player does not change. The fear of losing and the greed for more are the same today as they were a hundred years ago.

And this pattern has one detail that changes everything.

Across thirty years of US stock charts, buying on the day this pattern appeared returned an average of 3.1% over the next 20 trading days. Buying the S&P 500 on any day and holding it for the same 20 days returned 0.9%.

More than three times as much.

And that is not a number from a sales brochure. In part two of this book I will show you exactly where it comes from. Tens of thousands of cases, measured one by one, the bad ones included.

Think about it. If you knew a hand paid more than three times what an average hand pays, would you be afraid to bet on it? No. You would want to play it every time you could.

The best part is that you don’t need to be a maths genius. You don’t need software that costs two thousand dollars. You can see this pattern with your own eyes. When it appears, you can’t miss it. It is as if the market showed you its cards. And we get in at the exact moment.

Not before, when it is risky. Not after, when it is too late.

Bruce Lee, the martial arts master, once said something you have probably read before:

“I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.”

You have heard it a thousand times. The rare thing, the thing almost nobody does, is to apply it.

One move, mastered, is worth more than fifty hands played badly. If you see the aces, you bet, and you don’t hesitate. If you don’t, you do nothing and keep your chips.

Because in the market, patience is not boredom. It is discipline.

And discipline is what pays.

Next chapter: the art of getting out, and the power of time. The chips in front of you are plastic until you cash them in. And you will hear the other side of my story from chapter 1.

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I understand you because for years I was you.

Let me start with my background. Not to show off. It is just that what comes next makes no sense without it.

I have a master’s degree in finance. I hold the CFA charter, one of the hardest exams in the investment world. I have worked on the front office of international banks. I have read hundreds of books, from classic value investing to the driest quantitative maths. I even read Confusion of Confusions by Joseph de la Vega, the first book ever written about the stock market, published in 1688. It is strange to see that the problems of an investor three centuries ago are exactly the problems today.

I had the theory. I had the qualifications. And I was losing money.

Let me tell you about one trade, because I remember it like it was yesterday.

I had studied a company for weeks. I read the accounts, listened to the earnings call, ran my own numbers. I was sure it had to go up. I put in an amount that, for me at that time, was very serious money. At first it worked. The stock went up for some years, I felt clever, and I told a couple of friends at dinner with the confidence of someone who thinks he has cracked the market.

Then it turned.

It fell 10%. I told myself the company was excellent and the market was wrong, it would come back. It fell 20%. I told myself this was even better, now it was cheaper, a chance to average down. It fell 35%. I stopped looking at the account. Every morning I opened the app with a knot in my stomach and closed it straight away, like someone turning away from something they do not want to see.

That position stopped being an investment. It became a monument to my ego. And the worst part was not the money. It was realising, years later, that my analysis could have been perfect and it would not have mattered.

I was “right”. The market had my money. And while the market goes up, all the analysts are right.

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It’s not me or you. It‘s everyone.

You may be thinking: sure, but that is because you and I know little.

The people who really know, the professional fund managers, they make money analysing companies.

Let me stop you there, because this is not my opinion.

It comes from Standard & Poor’s. There is a report called SPIVA that compares, every year, the results of actively managed funds (those that analyse companies all day) against their benchmark index. The data is public and it is brutal: over horizons that are not even that long, around 90% of professional funds (people with big credentials, teams of analysts and huge resources) fail to beat their index.

Over a 15 year horizon, 9 out of 10 funds underperform the S&P 500.

You might think this is something that only happens in the United States.

In Europe, the picture is much the same. In just 10 years, 97 out of every 100 funds lose money against the index. They add NOTHING.

And just when you thought it could not get any worse, Canada takes the prize. 99 out of 100 funds lose money against their benchmark.

And remember, following that benchmark costs you almost nothing.

Read that again.

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They do all that work, reading balance sheets, visiting companies, modelling scenarios, and they end up behind someone who simply bought the index and went to sleep. Take away the fees they charge and their work is, for your wallet, worse than useless.

Now look at social media.

It is full of “buying opportunities”.

Everyone tells you what to buy. Almost nobody tells you when to sell. They put you on the train and from there, good luck. And that’s not fair.

The real problem: the ingredients and the recipe

Why does this happen? Because most people are amateurs at the only thing that really matters: managing the trade.

This looks like a small detail. It is everything.

You have probably lived it.

You do, or you read, a great analysis. You buy the stock. It goes up 30%, 40%, 70%. You feel like a genius. Then the market turns, and the questions that keep you awake begin. Is it normal for it to fall this much? Do I sell now and keep what is left? Why didn’t I sell at the top? What if I sell and it goes back up? Frozen by doubt, you watch that 70% evaporate.

Or worse, it turns into a loss.

And then, instead of accepting the mistake, the ego takes over. Look, it is cheaper now, I will buy more.

We make the losing position bigger.

We multiply the damage trying to get out at zero from a trade that should never have lasted this long.

Giving someone an entry point without an exit plan is like handing them flour, eggs and sugar with no recipe for the cake.

Do you bake it for five minutes? Do you eat it raw? You don’t know. You end up with a dirty kitchen and nothing to eat. In this Substack we are going to change that.

You will learn that a professional with a system does not ask himself anxious questions, because he has the answers before he gets in.

But first, let me tell you about the metaphor that changed how I understand this game.

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The poker metaphor

Imagine you are at a professional poker table in Las Vegas. There are thousands of dollars. The dealer deals. The cards reach you. And you do not look at them. You push all your chips to the centre and say: all in.

The other players stare at you. What hand do you have? And you, very calm say:

I don’t know.

I did not even know I had cards. But I read that the dealer is one of the best in the business, I like the colour of the table, and the news says more and more people are winning by going all in on the first round.

It sounds ridiculous. It sounds crazy. Nobody would play like that, not even in a game with friends.

And yet that is exactly what most people do in the stock market every day.

They go into a forum, they hear someone say this company is the future or the CEO is a genius, and they buy. They do not know what hand they hold. They have no statistics. They do not know the historical odds of success. They do not know when to get out. They have an opinion and the hope that the opinion turns out right.

Luckily for them, the market tends to go up over the long run, so many times they are right by pure inertia. They keep going, feed their ego with the easy wins and let the losses run because “it will come back”.

Until the drop arrives that wipes the account.

The big difference (and why I love trading)

Here is the difference that changes everything, and the reason I prefer the market to poker.

In poker, even when you lift your cards and see two aces, the best possible hand, you still have a problem: you have opponents. They watch you, they study you, they bluff, and with some luck on the last card they can still beat you. You depend on what other people do.

In the market, you are your only opponent. The market does not look you in the eye. The market does not care about you.

They are specific setups on the chart, moments when the historical odds are not a coin flip. I did not take that on faith. I counted them.

More than 8 million patterns across 30 years of charts, on the 500 largest US companies.

Most of them are noise.

A few are not.

I will show you the full count later in the book.

The problem is that almost nobody knows how to recognise them. They see lines and candles, but they do not see the edge.

I do not play mediocre hands. Too much risk for too little. I sit at the table, I wait, I watch. And only when that financial “two aces” appears, the one you are going to learn to see in this book, then and only then, I attack.

In the next pages I am going to give you a pair of X-ray glasses. You will stop playing blind, you will stop blaming the news for your bad run, and you will face your own ego.

And, as in poker, if you only play good hands, you end up winning.

What you take from this table

• Your analysis can be perfect and you can still lose money, because knowing what to buy is not knowing how to trade.

• Nine out of ten professionals do not beat their index. Credentials do not guarantee results.

• A professional has decided the entry, the exit and the risk before putting in a single dollar.

Next chapter: the art of getting in, and the power of keeping it simple.

You will see why most of what you look at on a chart is noise, and what a single hand played to perfection looks like.

Subscribe to get Chapter 2 in your inbox the day it comes out!

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Welcome to Top Chart Patterns. 👋

My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: Over 70% success rate with over +200% returns backed by strict risk management. All publicly audited on Tradingview.

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Trading on Hope is Financial Suicide.

Do This Instead.

I know exactly how you feel when you see a green candle and the urge takes over.

You feel like you’re missing out, your pulse races, and you hit the buy button.I’ve been there too. And I blew up a lot of accounts doing it.

You enter the market, and five minutes later, the price turns against you.

That’s when the doubts hit: “Should I close it now and take the loss?”“What if I hold on a little longer and it bounces back?”

If you’re asking yourself these questions with an open trade, you have a serious problem.

You are not trading, you are gambling.

And the stats are brutal: All the beginners lose money for this exact reason.

It's exactly like sitting at a professional poker table with real money.
The blinds go up, the bets increase, and you are holding cards in your hand.
But you have no idea if a pair of aces is better than a pair of threes.

You ignore the value of your hand and don't know the mathematical odds of winning.
Following your gut or the magic signals from the latest gurus doesn't work.
Trading on "hunches" isn't a system, it's faith. And the market doesn't do miracles.

To make real money, you need to stop playing and start managing risk.
The secret isn't predicting the future, it's having a solid plan before you make a single click.

• You must know the exact reason you are buying at that specific cent.

• You must know where you will stop the bleeding if you are wrong.

• You must have the exact level mapped out to take your profits if you are right.

And above all, understand the technical and mathematical reason behind those three decisions.

Entering the market without knowing your assumed risk and potential reward is financial suicide.

Having this clear system is the only thing separating chronic losers from profitable traders.

It’s a mechanical, cold, and highly effective process.

And this is exactly what you are going to learn how to build from scratch with me.

Stop playing blind poker with your own money.

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My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: Over 70% success rate with over +200% returns backed by strict risk management. All publicly audited on Tradingview.

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The Key Level to Watch in the Nasdaq 100

I want to share a level that I am watching very closely.

It is a level that would trigger my alarms for a drop in the Nasdaq 100.

But be careful because I am not bearish.

I am alert.

Recently I shared how to find a top in the SPX and today I share how I watch the Nasdaq 100. They are similar indices but they have nuances in their behavior.

The most typical pattern for a trend change

The most typical pattern for the Nasdaq 100 to change trend is widely known and easy to detect.

It is a Double Top.

The price reaches a high then falls a little and when it tests it again it fails to break that previous high.

We have this situation right now in the Nasdaq.

The market has already tried to break the $26,150 level twice and failed.

This creates a neckline at the minimum price between both highs.

This neckline cannot be lost.

Also this neckline forms over previous highs so that gives it more strength as a key support level. Losing these levels would send the price quickly to the $21,000 area and there we will see if we can stop it or if the bleeding continues.

Historical evidence

What am I basing this on. In previous occasions these Double Tops have appeared. In fact it is the most repeated pattern in the Nasdaq.

• A 19 percent drop when losing the neckline

  

• A 26 percent drop when losing the neckline

• A 20 percent drop when losing the neckline

  

• And another 13 percent drop

  

These are some examples of Double Tops recorded in the Nasdaq during the last ten years. So a Double Top pattern is something to consider because it can trigger significant drops.

Why I am not bearish yet

Then why do I say that I am not bearish.

Chart patterns generally indicate that we have a temporary equilibrium. Everyone is comfortable in a range and we have set clear limits where buyers enter cheap in the neckline area and sellers believe the Double Top area is expensive.

But deep down we all agree that this price area is acceptable today.

This type of pattern usually waits for a key event that moves the price and forces investors to decide if it is time to continue the rise or start correcting.

Maybe this event is the NVDA earnings report.

While we wait I leave you some examples of Double Tops that did not break down but up making the market rise strongly.

• An 11 percent rise after breaking the Multiple Top

  

• A 16 percent rise after breaking upward

  

• A 20 percent rise after breaking the Double Top

  

Trading with Aces

As you see a chart pattern should not be a cause for concern but a clear indicator that soon the market will show us the next direction for the price for the coming weeks or months with a high probability of success.

It is true that you will not always win every hand by having Aces but in the long run you will win games and tournaments and that is what counts. In trading when the cards are dealt you have the option to pass. You change the underlying asset and look for another where you can have Aces.

And today in the Nasdaq 100 we have a good pair of Aces.

We only need to know if they are bullish or bearish.

Stay alert!

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My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: Over 70% success rate with over +200% returns backed by strict risk management. All publicly audited on Tradingview.

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Do I Buy Bitcoin or Gold?

Everything looks very simple in the stock market.

There is always someone telling us how easy it is to make money with their investments. Yet the reality is that they keep working all day to pay their bills.

But anyway the stock market is easy.

Buy and sell. Two options. Nothing more.

Well actually you buy low and sell high. But the truth is that the complexity hidden within the market is infinite and surely this is exactly why we fall in love with it.

It is an unsolvable puzzle. A sea of data and numbers and money and lies and reports and magic tricks and smoke.

And this is what happened to me yesterday.

In a casual chat a friend asked me something.

Hey now that you mention it where should I invest…

In Gold or in Bitcoin?

Just like the market the question is easy. One or the other?

My friend was looking at me like… If you know so much then tell me! One or the other?

But as with any investment everything can get infinitely complicated and that is exactly what my head did.

I started seeing scenarios everywhere because there was a lot of information missing in that question.

• What portfolio does he have and how does it correlate with these options?

• Does he want to trade short term or medium term or long term?

• Will he be capable of holding through drops of 20% without selling or will he run away?

• Does he want to use leverage in the operation?

But I stopped.

I stopped all these automatic thoughts dead in their tracks. I remembered I was among friends so I gave my most sincere and simple answer possible.

And today I am sharing it with you. In a plain an simple way.

But if you do not mind I will take advantage of the fact that you have a higher level to tell you the reason why.

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Bitcoin

Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.

I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.

But I get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage. But above all I understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.

This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.

Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.

The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.

This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.

And this makes sense.

Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.

Inflationary and logarithmic?

This is vital. Let me translate it for you.

Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.

Easy but logarithmic?

This is something that all crypto gurus hide from you or simply IGNORE.

One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow.

But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.

At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.

If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery.

So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.

Where will this low happen?

I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.

In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs. And a lot.

• The first cycle down 85%

• The second down 80%

• The third down 75%

And now?

Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.

This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.

In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.

• Correction time of first cycle is 12 months

• Correction time of second cycle is 12 months

• Correction time of third cycle is 12 months

If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026. That is the moment where we will all say that BTC is going to 0.

Who knows.

But with a theoretical $10,000 we could do this.

• Invest $5,000 in the zone of the previous peak at $60,000.

• Invest another $5,000 if the price gets close to the expected $40,000 zone by year end.

If all this happens as we expect we will have an average buy at $50,000.

After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k.

Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)

We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.

The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.

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What if we buy gold?

We have all seen that gold is the new Bitcoin. It is capable of going up wildly in a few months and correcting it and recovering it and driving us all crazy.

But does it make sense to buy gold to seek returns in the next 3 years?

As always I do not have the crystal ball but we have clues.

Gold is not as shiny as you might think. Gold is a specialist in abandoning you for years to then give you the best in a very short time.

Since the gold standard was left behind it has moved with powerful rallies only to remain dormant for years.

After going up 446% it stopped for 4 years until it went up another 750%.

Then came a pause of 28 years where gold did not live its best moments only to wake up with a rally of 650% and go back to sleep for another 13 years.

And now we are in a rally. But rallies end, and in this asset when a rally ends it does so for real without looking back.

Where is gold now?

Gold has risen approximately 420% in this last rally.

I have marked this same level with a white circle in previous rallies.

As you see in all cases we are very close to the final zone.

Either we are facing a historic rally that will break any previous metric or we are reaching the end of a cycle that will leave us with several years of correction.

If in this same case we buy $10,000 and wait for the best scenario we can still see maybe 60% more upside from current prices.

But at the same time we have the zone of the expected next low further and further away. Seeing the behavior of this asset it is probable that we see that price meaning our upside potential is limited to a best case of 50% while we already have an almost assured 50% drop as well.

Determining where gold will turn around is incredibly complicated right now but seeing previous cycles it will be soon if we have not already lived its cycle high.

But then Gold or Bitcoin?

Let us not forget that all this was just to say one word to my friend.

He did not want to know all this but just one word.

For me there are two simple options.

• Buy Bitcoin knowing that with high probability starting from the end of the year you have a rally to double or triple the investment but assuming risk close to 100%. Ideally I would wait to have liquidity after the summer to take advantage of the panic moments that may exist.

• Buy gold for an upside potential limited to 50% and an almost certain correction of years and drops of at least another 50% when we return to the sideways phases of gold. But we will hardly see it fall beyond 60 to 70%.

Knowing that it was purely aspirational money where he could assume total risk, Bitcoin is offering us opportunities to achieve 3 times the risk even being 100% risk! Meanwhile gold offers us a risk return ratio of 1 to 1 with many options of getting stuck dormant.

For me with a 3 year view Bitcoin makes more sense right now.

Would you have recommended the same thing? I would love to hear from you :)

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My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: Over 70% success rate with over +200% returns backed by strict risk management. All publicly audited on Tradingview.

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How Do I Determine if This Is the Top of the Market

When the climb is beautiful, we forget to check the horizon. Here is your map for the coming weeks.

When everything is going well, nothing worries us.

The market climbs, we buy, we profit, and we repeat.

We haven’t faced a severe crisis in years, but history is a stern teacher: the American market has, in the past, spent entire decades without reaching a new high.

But respecting the market isn’t the same as fearing it.

Respecting it means pausing, looking around, and finding your bearings.

I like to think of it like a hike in the mountains. Just because the scenery is lush and the path is beautiful doesn’t mean you should stop checking your water supply, your food, or the clouds gathering on the horizon.

Today, I propose we do exactly that.

Amidst the current chaos, BTC falling relentlessly, Gold and Silver behaving like meme coins, and the US Tech sector losing key levels, we must ask the vital question:

When will it be time to sell the major indices?

The US Landscape

1. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

The Dow has been riding a bullish channel for a year. As long as it stays within this channel (or breaks higher), it remains a clear “buy.” We are currently seeing a Multiple Top, a breakout here would likely trigger another major rally.

• The Warning Sign: Watch for a drop to $48,200, which would activate a double top to the downside.

• The Line in the Sand: $47,700. Below this, we lose major support and the bullish channel.

For now, the bias remains up.

2. SPX 500

Currently, the S&P 500 feels neutral, perhaps dangerously so.

It is showing incredible complacency. I’ll start to sweat if we lose $6,750, and I’ll be truly worried if we hit $6,500.

3. Russell 2000 (IWM)

Following its recent double top breakout, this is my favorite index right now alongside the DJI.

It is clearly bullish.

As long as the IWM stays above the breakout level ($230), I’m at peace. While I don’t expect it to lose $250, any volatility there should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

4. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)

The “crown jewel” is showing cracks.

While the index itself is resilient, it has formed a textbook double top. The last time we saw this pattern, the market corrected 25% in weeks. We are in a “tense calm” between $24k and $26k. Everyone is sitting tight, waiting for someone else to blink first.

The bearish thesis only triggers if we see a sustained break of the Double Top's base. Until then, the trend is still our friend.

Global Perspectives: Europe and Asia

1. Stoxx 50 (Europe)

It’s in a “breather” phase. Losing €5,800 would be concerning, but the trend points toward new highs unless the macro environment sours.

2. DAX (Germany)

Stimulus is working. Like the Russell 2000, it broke a double top to the upside and is currently riding a wave of bullish momentum.

A50 (China)

We saw a scary downside break of a double top, but it recovered in a single day. If this is a fake breakout, it’s actually a very bullish signal. Keep your eyes on China.

Nikkei 225 (Japan)

After a double bottom, the “easy money” has been made. It’s still in a bullish channel, but the 51,500 level is the key to the castle.

Emerging Markets as an Early Alert

We recently discussed using the Emerging Markets Index (EEM) to predict an SPX drop.

Currently, they remain aligned, but there’s a shadow on the wall: EEM has started to fall with force. This feels like October 2024, where SPX rose weakly after a major EEM rally.

Eventually, SPX continued for a while until a divergence formed. We aren’t at the cliff’s edge yet, but the signals are starting to blink yellow.

The Great Rotation: Moving Away from the Mag7

We often think the US market is the “Magnificent 7,” but the internals are shifting:

• AAPL: Down 15%, though nearly recovered.

• MSFT: Down 25% from its highs 4 months ago.

• META: Suffered a 25% drop, now halfway back.

• GOOG: Still in a league of its own, clearly bullish.

• AMZN/TSLA: Flat and volatile.

• NVDA: The ultimate indicator. It hasn’t fallen... yet. The head and shoulders is almost there.

And AVGO just broke one this week… Maybe an early alert for NVDA?

We are witnesing a massive rotation. Money is leaving the Mag7 and flowing into “smaller” companies and the Russell 2000 (which has already yielded 10% in just a few weeks). I think this is very healthy for the market and will help to sustain the bull trend overall.

Summary: The Exit Checklist

We are still in a bull market.

I will only consider an exit if these levels are broken:

• Nasdaq 100 → $23,900

• SPX 500 → $6,750

• Dow Jones → $48,200

The Black Swan?

Will global complacency continue, or will we be blindsided?

My personal fear: a crypto sell-off. If BTC hits unsustainable levels, forced liquidations from major holders (like MSTR) could spill over into the equity markets as they sell stocks to cover their crypto margin calls.

What about you? Do you think the rotation into Small Caps will save the rally, or is the crypto “leverage bomb” about to go off?

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A Simple Way to Know if S&P500 Will Fall Soon

We all think the same when we start in the markets.

We wish we had bought that one stock when it was worth so little.

Or we wish we had sold before the bubble burst.

It is a normal feeling because we always like to think that things could be done better.

But these types of arguments do not help us much.

If only we had a crystal ball to predict what will happen, everything would be so much simpler!

🔮 The Crystal Ball

That title sounds great right. Actually I am selling you smoke.

And if you bought that idea we are not starting well. Nobody has that ball and winning in the market is not about that.

But pay attention because we are getting to the interesting part.

Even if that ball does not exist we have things called leading indicators. These are signals that start to warn you before an event happens.

Can you predict the result of every single match? (Or whatever sport you prefer!)

Imagine you are outside a football stadium.

Suddenly the crowd starts to raise their voice. They shout louder and louder. What is happening?

The local team is probably about to score a goal but we cannot see it from the outside. Sometimes that goal happens and sometimes it does not. But if we can hear the crowd shouting because they see a crash on the horizon it would be good to know in advance.

The people who put real money in the market are the ones shouting. It is not the press, social media or a random finfluencer.

It is the person who plays the game.

Chart patterns are like this. They are moments when the market warns us about what might happen. Entering when the price breaks out is magnificent. You get a lot of profit in a short time with limited risk. It works sometimes and other times it fails, but at the end is profitable.

Today I bring you something more general to give you peace of mind for several months in the SPX.

👉 The Indicator That Should Worry Us

From now on you will see charts where the SPX is in candles and the EEM which is the emerging markets index is the blue line.

Emerging markets always show weakness before the SPX does.

You will learn how to read when investors start to sell their risky assets because there is something in the horizon they don’t like.

🚩 2011 The Early Warning

In April 2011 emerging markets were making new highs just like the SPX. They were showing strength. But after June the emerging markets could not get close to their previous highs. The SPX was able to return to those same levels. This was a first signal that investors were moving away from risky assets. At the end of July the SPX dropped 20%.

⚠️ 2014 to 2015 The Long Divergence

In September 2014 both indices were reaching new highs. The EEM started to fall quickly and could not reach new peaks. The SPX kept going up. In April 2015 emerging markets seemed to recover but they failed to pass their previous highs. This created a key divergence. The SPX kept making new highs while emerging markets were falling. Big investors were removing risk. From July 2015 the SPX started a correction that took away 15% of its value.

📉 2018 The Aggressive Shift

In 2018 we saw a big rally in both indices. They hit highs in January and then corrected until April. At that point the EEM continued its fall while the SPX started rising again. The key moment was September 2018. The SPX was at new highs but the EEM was completely crushed. This caused another aggressive sell off in the USA. The SPX fell 20% starting in October.

🦠 2020 The Pandemic Signal

The pandemic arrived in 2020. In these cases divergences do not usually appear because the market moves too fast. But even then the market showed new highs for both in January 2020. The divergence appeared in February 2020. The SPX lost 35% almost immediately.

🐻 2021 to 2022 The Major Reversal

After the pandemic both assets went up until February 2021. There was another sell off in emerging assets to support the USA. By December 2021 the divergence was huge. The SPX started falling in January 2022 and prices dropped almost 30%.

⚡2024 to 2025 The Recent Shakeout

The last divergence happened recently. In September 2024 both assets were going toward new highs together. Then the EEM could not pass its own peaks while the SPX continued its path. In February 2025 the EEM failed to make new highs and everything crashed. The SPX had a 20% correction before going up again.

And… What now?

In recent years all important drops in the SPX could be spotted by looking at the EEM. That is why I always look at this relationship.

Right now the situation looks optimistic. Both are making new highs together.

Everything indicates that the SPX should continue making new highs during the next months. This should hold true unless a black swan appears that nobody can value before it arrives.

For me, the consequence is keeping a 'buy and hold' strategy for SPX index positions.

I’m searching for bullish chart patterns in S&P stocks instead of bearish signals. Currently, I trade 20% short signals and 80% long signals. Even though I believe the price should go up overall, there are still good stocks to short, and it helps my portfolio become more resilient. I’ll write more about it another day.

Do you know any other leading indicator as good as this one? I’ll be pleased to add it to my collection!

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Results: Over 70% success rate with over +200% returns backed by strict risk management. All publicly audited on Tradingview.

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From Penny Stocks to 1,000,000%: The Power of Long-Term Patterns

The stock market is a fascinating place.

Every person understands it differently. There are those who buy never to sell again, those who hunt for dividends or those who speculate on the intraday noise.

In my case, I like to view the market as an infinite source of opportunities to earn high returns in just a few days by capitalizing on specific chart pattern breakouts.

This perspective is often associated with short-term speculation or even luck.

But that couldn’t be further from the reality!!

When we look at long-term charts, we occasionally spot unique opportunities, the kind that can truly change your life.

What better way to see this than by looking at the best-performing stocks in history?

I won’t be exhaustive, there are others with better returns in shorter windows, but I’ve selected 5 companies that will blow your mind. We are talking about returns exceeding 1,000,000%.

Let’s dive in.

Top 5 Best Performers & Analysis

We’ll start with Netflix. It has the “smallest” total return on our list at 337,143%, but it also boasts the highest Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), averaging 42% over the last 23 years.

5. Netflix (NFLX)

Return: 337,143% in 23 years (42% CAGR)

Netflix began as a DVD-by-mail service after its founder was reportedly annoyed by a $40 late fee for a VHS copy of Apollo 13. In 2000, Blockbuster famously turned down an offer to buy Netflix for just $50 million—a move now considered one of the biggest blunders in business history. By pivoting to streaming and original content, Netflix completely redefined global entertainment.

The Analysis

Looking at the chart, the price is currently breaking below a long-standing bullish channel. It seems that, in the long term, NFLX is somewhat overheated and could be due for a correction.

A return to the “green zone” could offer magnificent buying opportunities for short-to-medium-term trades, but also for long-term investors who want to own the king of entertainment.

In the past, a Double Top break opened the door to its first major rally. Conversely, the trend break in 2021 was a major red flag. Significant money was made in a very short time by reacting to that signal.

4. Amazon (AMZN)

Return: 337,276% in 28 years (33.7% CAGR)

Jeff Bezos started Amazon in a garage as a simple online bookstore, famously using old wooden doors as desks to save on costs. After surviving the brutal 1990s dot-com crash, it evolved into the “Everything Store” and later invented the cloud industry with AWS. It is the ultimate example of a company that prioritizes long-term growth over short-term profits.

The Analysis

Interestingly, Amazon has a total return similar to Netflix, though it took AMZN five years longer to hit that 337,000% mark. It has traded within a very clear, well-defined bullish channel.

The price hit new highs and has since corrected back to previous resistance-turned-support. Buying around $190 (provided the channel doesn’t break to the downside) could be a historic opportunity to add AMZN to your portfolio at a great price. Remember, you aren’t just buying an online store, you are buying the massive growth of AWS.

3. NVIDIA (NVDA)

Return: 623,103% in 26 years (40% CAGR)

The three founders famously came up with the idea for NVIDIA while sitting in a booth at a Denny’s diner. They started by perfecting graphics for video games (the GPU) before realizing their chips were perfect for mining Bitcoin and, eventually, powering the AI revolution. Today, it is the undisputed backbone of the global shift toward accelerated computing.

The Analysis

Sitting at #3 after a legendary growth run, NVDA currently looks very, very overheated.

It is touching the upper bound of its bullish channel, which usually serves as a warning that the upward room is becoming limited.

The white line (support) on the chart is the key support for deciding whether to stay long or go short. Without a doubt, the market may offer us better entry prices in the coming months than what we see today.

It’s fascinating to see how their architectural shifts, from crypto mining to Deep Learning and now AI, have allowed NVDA to lead a massive market they essentially created themselves.

2. Altria Group (MO)

Return: 1,111,015% in 55 years (18.4% CAGR)

Formerly known as Philip Morris, Altria is often cited as the best-performing U.S. stock of the 20th century due to the power of dividend reinvestment. Despite decades of legal battles and declining smoking rates, its massive cash flow and consistent payouts have made it a legend for income investors. It serves as a reminder that “boring” (or controversial) businesses can be incredible compounders.

The Analysis

Then we have Altria, often overlooked and perhaps even rejected by some due to the tobacco business, but its stock performance is something very few have achieved.

Recently, we saw an entry signal via a Double Top breakout at the bottom of the channel. This is a wonderful technical combination that could potentially see the price double from that breakout point.

1. Monster Beverage (MNST)

Return: 1,252,454% in 30 years (36.9% CAGR)

And finally, the best of the best.

⭐ The legend ⭐

Originally a small juice company called Hansen Natural, it nearly went bankrupt before pivoting to energy drinks in 2002. Since then, it has delivered a staggering 1,000,000%+ return, proving you don’t need to be a tech giant to dominate Wall Street. Its 2015 strategic partnership with Coca-Cola helped turn this former penny stock into a global household name.

The Analysis

In 30 years, it has delivered a 1,252,454% return to its investors. It began its journey with an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling that something big was coming, a true rally.

But get this. Its first rally was 7,246% in just 3 years...

Better than hitting the jackpot on the lottery. Since then, the growth has moderated, but it remains incredibly strong, moving within a more calm bullish channel that is very easy to track.

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Do you know any other stock that should be in the list?

I have always focused on the short term, but would you like to see more long-term opportunities like the recent buys in Altria and Amazon, or the warning alerts on Netflix and NVIDIA?

I follow all this long-term charts to seek for long term positions, but I don’t know if you want more about it or not…

I hope you enjoyed this Top 5 as much as I enjoyed putting it together!

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Welcome to Top Chart Patterns. 👋

My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: Over 70% success rate with over +200% returns backed by strict risk management. All publicly audited on Tradingview.

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Why Broadcom’s Next Move Could Trigger a Sell-Off

Most of the time, looking at the market feels like guessing. Prices go up, prices go down, and nobody is 100% sure what will happen next. It’s full of “maybe” and “perhaps.”

But every once in a while, the market puts its cards on the table. It shows us exactly what the odds are. Right now, Broadcom (AVGO) has just shown its hand, and I think we need to pay close attention.

Reading the Cards on the Table

When I say the market is showing its cards, I’m talking about reliable probabilities. For me, that means chart patterns.

By analyzing these patterns and their different scenarios, I don’t have to guess, I just have to watch. But for a pattern to work, two things must happen:

1. The pattern must form.

2. The trigger must pull (this is when the price breaks through a support or resistance line).

That is the exact moment when the guessing ends and the math begins.

I’ve previously written about Double Tops, but today we’re looking at a different, very powerful pattern: the Head and Shoulders.

It’s a famous pattern, but also one that many people misunderstand.

The Setup in Broadcom (AVGO)

This pattern appeared after Broadcom hit new highs with extremely low volume. This is a huge red flag, it’s abnormal to see such little interest when everyone should be euphoric about new records.

Since then, AVGO has held steady around the $325 zone, creating a solid floor (support). However, this same floor is what confirms the Head and Shoulders pattern.

⚠️ CAUTION: The pattern is NOT valid unless that support breaks.

Here is the game plan:

• If the support holds: We wait.

• If the price breaks below $325: We could see a quick drop to $300, and potentially a deeper correction to the $240 area (where previous highs will likely attract buyers again).

Personally, I’m waiting. But if that support snaps?

I’ll be selling without hesitation.

A Pattern Across the Mag 7

Broadcom isn’t acting alone. We are seeing similar signals across the Magnificent 7 (the market’s biggest tech giants):

• MSFT (Microsoft): Already turned around with a Double Top.

• AAPL (Apple): Reversed its trend with a Head and Shoulders.

  

• META: Did its own Head and Shoulders and broke down with a massive gap.

  

• NVDA (Nvidia): Be careful, it looks like it’s heading down the same path.

  

The market seems to be in a cooling off phase. This doesn’t necessarily mean a total crash, but it does mean we should expect sideways movement or corrections.

• If you are a short-term trader: It might be time to sell if those supports break.

• If you are a long-term investor: Be patient. This could be a great opportunity to wait for lower prices and find a better entry point.

What do you think?

Are you watching the $325 level on AVGO as closely as I am?

Let me know your strategy in the comments!

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My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: Over 70% success rate with over +200% returns backed by strict risk management. All publicly audited on Tradingview.

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In our last post, we talked about why trading major levels is like holding Pocket Aces. We discussed the power of patience and waiting for the right moment.

Today, we move from the concept to the practice.

Many people try to guess when a stock will stop rising. They see a Double Top or a Multiple Top and think it is time to sell. We do the opposite. We wait for those resistances to break. When a stock finally climbs above a level that held it down for a long time, it often moves very fast. This happens because the big players are finally stepping in.

Here are three clear opportunities where we are waiting for the Pocket Aces to play out.

Exxon Mobil (XOM): The Power of the Ceiling

Exxon Mobil is currently testing a very important level. Instead of guessing if it will fall, we are watching for a clear move above the recent high.

• The Plan: We are looking for a price break above $126.5.

• The Target: Once it clears that level, the next stop is $140.

• The Reason: This level has acted like a lid on the price. When that lid pops, the upward move is usually strong.

Visa (V): Watching the All Time High

Visa has been moving within a very steady upward path. It is now reaching a point where it has struggled before.

• The Plan: We want to see the price break above $360.

• The Target: A successful break can send the price toward $375 within just a few days.

• The Reason: Reaching $375 would put Visa at an all time high. This is where the real excitement begins for investors.

Salesforce (CRM): Learning From the Fake Out

Salesforce gives us a great lesson in market behavior. If you look closely at the chart, you will see a point where the price dropped below support and then immediately jumped back up. This was a fake breakout that trapped sellers.

• The Plan: We are waiting for the price to climb above $270.

• The Target: This opens a path to earn 10% with a target near $290.

• The Reason: After a fake move to the downside, the move to the upside is often much more powerful because everyone who sold is now in a hurry to buy back.

Why We Wait for the Break And Previous Patterns

We have seen this pattern work many times before. It is not about being lucky. It is about following a proven system. You can see how this worked in our previous analysis of Royal Caribbean (RCL) or our look at the Gold market. In both cases, waiting for the level to break was the key to success.

Your job as an investor is to be the patient professional. You do not need to trade every day. You only need to trade when the stars align and you have the right cards in your hand.

The Deal

1. I provide the chart analysis. 📉

2. I keep it completely FREE. 🆓

3. You hit the Share button for more! 🔄

That’s it 🤝

Subscribe or Share so the next breakout setup finds you before the market does.

My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: Over 70% success rate with over +200% returns backed by strict risk management. All publicly audited on Tradingview.

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Why Trading Support and Resistance is Like Holding Pocket Aces

In trading, like in life, the most powerful move you can make isn’t always action.

Often, the most powerful move is patience.

In trading, we often feel the pressure to be in the market constantly, FOMO hits hard and being in social networks seeing everyone winning in crypto, stocks, forex and so on does not help! But listen, focus on your trading system, and forget about others.

When I started trading, I tried to catch every wave and every flicker of the candle. But the masters of this craft know a secret:

You don’t play every hand.

The Poker of the Markets

Imagine you’re sitting at a high-stakes poker table. The amateur plays nearly every hand, fueled by the fear of missing out and a clear lack of strategy. He loses chips slowly, through a thousand small mistakes. And sometimes, a big mistake knocks him out completly.

But professionals sit. They watch. They fold. And they fold again.

They are waiting for those rare moments when the dealer slides them Pocket Aces. In the markets, those Aces are found at major Support and Resistance levels.

Why This is Your Unfair Advantage

When we trade near a significant support or resistance zone, we aren’t just guessing. We are operating at a point where the “story” of the market reaches a climax. Here is why this strategy gives you a massive advantage:

1. Skewed Risk/Reward: This is the magic of the setup. Because we are so close to a structural floor or ceiling, our Stop Loss can be incredibly tight. We risk a little to potentially capture a lot.

2. Probability is Your Friend: These levels represent areas where big institutions and historical memory collide. It’s a high-probability bounce zone.

3. Psychological Clarity: You know exactly where you are wrong. If the level breaks, the story has changed, and you exit without ego. You are not here to prove your predictive skills, you are here to make money and the first rule for that is SURVIVE.

When the Stars Align: High-Efficiency Examples

Let’s look at what happens when we have the discipline to wait for these key levels. When price touches a Great Support Zone, much like we saw in our recent analysis of BABA, the reaction is often swift and powerful.

The Dollar Tree ($DLTR) Example (link)

DLTR was hitting the same level for the 4th time and with massive volumes, which is always a way to see if there is interest for institutional players to buy at the current level.

Note how I used a tight stop loss, only 5% but in the post I explain multiple ideas, one of them was to hit a first TP for 50% of the position at just 5%, so the other 50% of the position was absolutely risk free.

The price hit the highest TP, at 40% but It continues to rally even today! Anyway, a 40% return in just few weeks is what I look for!

Now I attach the image of what happened after posting my idea on Tradingview, so you can see the rally after the bounce in the support zone.

You can also check other examples for Unilever, TTD or LiteCoin

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The Discipline of the “Fold”: When the Level Fails

Now, let’s be honest. Not every Pocket Ace wins the hand.

Sometimes, the support breaks. Sometimes, the resistance is shattered.

This is where the amateur becomes a victim and the professional becomes a survivor.

As an amateur, I analyzed everything and tried to avoid the “mistake” the next time, but it’s not a mistake, it’s just part of the game, every system has loser trades! And your ego needs to understand this.

As an example, I share you my idea in $PG:

The support was quite good, a simple buy in the support was great but the bounce was lower than expected and the price quickly broke the support.

This is not a mistake.

This is not something to worry about.

It’s just part of the strategy, I’ve tested tons of supports and the success rates for this set up is near 60%. So, I will fail in the other 40%.

But note that I did a 40% return in DLTR while I did a tight Stop Loss in PG. So I not only have the chances in my favour, but the potential return of the winner trades is much bigger than the losers.

Your Next Step

By focusing only on major Support and Resistance, you are choosing to only play the good cards in a simple way. It requires the patience of a monk and the precision of a sniper, but the reward is a trading career built on longevity and consistency.

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The Deal

1. I provide the chart analysis. 📉

2. I keep it completely FREE. 🆓

3. You hit the Share button for more! 🔄

That’s it 🤝

Subscribe or Share so the next breakout setup finds you before the market does.

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My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: An 80% success rate with over +200% returns backed by strict risk management. All publicly audited in Tradingview.

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⚠️ Early Call for NVDA: Overheated Chips? ⚠️

Hello Substack, 👋

Today marks the beginning of something different here.

I am kicking off a very personal, long-term series. For the first time, I am pulling back the curtain to reveal the charts that truly guide my market vision: the deep-dive long-term analysis.

I usually share my short-term tactics and daily patterns, they are simpler to follow and actionable in the moment. But the reality is that there is a much larger strategy operating behind the scenes that I haven’t shown until today.

Why share this now?

Because it might help you prepare for a scenario I don’t like one bit.

The first stock in this new series is . And that is no coincidence.

📉 The Gravity of the Upper Channel

Let’s be honest: The long-term NVDA chart is beautiful but scary.

We are looking at a rising channel that NVDA has respected for years without much trouble. However, if you have studied market cycles or chart patterns, you know that hovering at the very ceiling of such a steep channel is rarely a signal to buy, it is a signal that gravity is about to kick in.

And I’m not the one saying it, NVDA’s history is saying it.

Every time we have tagged this upper zone, the market has ended up correcting, and seriously. Just look at the drops marked with orange arrows in the previous chart:

• 2018: A 50% correction.

• 2021: A 65% correction.

• 2024: A 40% correction.

And now? We are back in the danger zone.

This fact alone should make you cautious. A return to the bottom of the channel from here would imply another 60% correction. Be very careful with this.

But that’s just the obvious part. The real concern is hidden in the data below the price action...

👻 Where Did the Volume Go?

Look back at 2018. Just before the crash, the price kept rising while monthly volume hit multi-month lows. It was the first warning whisper that something was wrong,major market transactions disappeared. The institutional flows weren’t there to fuel the rocket anymore.

In 2021, the situation was identical: price approached the channel top, and volume evaporated.

And recently, in early 2024, we saw the exact same setup. Even lower, decreasing volumes leading into the correction.

Today, we are in this situation for the fourth time.

We are at the top of the channel, and there is NO Volume.

It has been missing since April and May, right when the price started recovering. We are rising on inertia. The Smart Money has left the building.

Technical Note: If that weren’t enough, recent months have formed a Bearish Engulfing candle on the monthly chart, a classic pattern of exhaustion.

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🎲 A Game of Probabilities

Now, you might say, “But the crash hasn’t happened yet.” Do we know for sure what will happen? Of course not. Anything is possible in the market.

And right now, the probability of a trend exhaustion is screaming at us.

We have seen this movie before.

• Look at the trend-end for $DG:

  

• Look at the trend-end for $INTC:

  

• Look at the case for $NKE:

  

We could go on all day. The stock market is a game of probabilities, and being long NVDA right here doesn’t look like the best hand to play.

📉 The Short-Term Trigger to better time this potential correction, I recommend watching the Daily timeframe. A Head and Shoulders pattern is developing, which could deal the final blow to NVDA if it loses the critical $165-$169 zone.

🔓 Unlocking the 2026 Watchlist

Next week, I am opening the vault on my personal long-term charts for the 2026 cycle. We are stepping away from the daily noise to look at the structural truth of the market.

I want this series to be valuable for your portfolio.

So, let’s make a deal: You tell me the asset you’re watching, and I will share the long-term chart and my unfiltered insights.

👇 Drop a comment below or slide into my DMs. Let me know which stock you want me to analyze next.

My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: An 80% success rate with over +200% returns backed by strict risk management. All audited in Tradingview.

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🚨 Something BIG is About to Happen in the TECH Sector 🚨

Something happened today that rarely happens.

I was going through my routine, scanning for the most interesting setups to place my buy and sell orders, when I stopped cold. I noticed that several major companies in the TECH sector are showing the exact same pattern.

And be careful, this isn’t just any pattern.

It is a pattern capable of signaling a massive trend change. It represents a sudden, wild change of opinion in the market.

It is called The False Triangle Breakout.

📉 The Psychology of the Trap

Triangles are usually “continuation patterns.” They build tension, and traders love them because the support and resistance lines make it easy to place orders.

But sometime, and only sometimes, these triangles break downwards, lure the bears in, and then fail.

This is not a standard failure. It is a Bear Trap.

When the breakdown fails, the price jump aggressively to the opposite side. It destroys the bearish hope and triggers a rush of buying. The price stops looking down and starts attacking the highs with violence.

Here is what I found in the charts today:

1. Adobe (ADBE): The Blue Sky Breakout

The price has recovered from the trap and is currently fighting right outside the triangle, challenging the previous high.

• The Setup: If it breaks this previous high, it enters a free rise.

• The Potential: A 10% move in the coming days should be effortless for a stock with this momentum.

2. Intuit (INTU): The 30% Opportunity

Once again, we see the same fractal: a false breakout to the downside, followed by a V-shaped attack on the upper resistance.

• The Setup: It is currently facing resistance at the previous high.

• The Potential: If it breaks, we could easily see 9% in a few days. If the move consolidates, the stock has room to run another 30% toward the top of the channel.

3. Salesforce (CRM): Joining the Party

CRM decided not to be left behind by its tech peers. It is showing the same pattern, the same false breakout, and the same readiness to jump higher.

• The Setup: We are waiting for confirmation via the breakout of the previous high. It is within striking range.

• The Potential: This opens the doors to a 10% gain in the short term, with a potential 30% upside if it revisits its highs.

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But… Why that happened?

If you look at that violent U-turn on November 21st for INTU, ADBE, and CRM, it wasn’t a coincidence.

Here is the story behind the charts:

💡 The Narrative Shift

Until that week, the Wall Street fear was:

“AI is great for Nvidia (Hardware), but it will kill Software (SaaS) by replacing human seats.”

On November 21st, that fear died, because of a Triple Confirmation that happened in less than 24 hours:

1. Snowflake (SNOW) Snowflake crushed earnings and sent a clear message: “Corporate spending is back.” Companies aren’t cutting software, they are organizing their data to build AI agents.

2. Intuit (INTU) Intuit proved that AI features (like “Intuit Assist”) aren’t just hype, they are actually generating new revenue.

3. A Fundamental Short Squeeze Suddenly, investors realized AI isn’t the enemy of Software, it is the growth engine. Thousands of traders who were betting against these stocks got trapped. They all rushed to the exit at the same time, triggering those explosive vertical green candles you saw.

⚠️ The Bonus Warning: Netflix (NFLX)

I am leaving Netflix here as a bonus, but for a very different reason. This is a cautionary tale.

Netflix has broken its bullish channel, and the nature of this break augurs a difficult road ahead for 2026.

• Action: Be very careful if you are Long this stock.

• Congratulations: If you took the Short we discussed when the channel broke, well done. The next major supports are still far away.

🛡️ My Battle Plan

You know my mantra:

In scenarios like these, where volatility is high, we need a plan that protects our capital first. Here is how I am playing it:

1. The Stop Loss (The Safety Net) I will place the Stop Loss inside the pattern, typically 2-4% away from my entry. If the price falls back into the trap, the pattern is invalid. We accept the small loss and move on.

2. The Risk-Free Strategy (The Magic) Because these False Breakout patterns usually result in an explosive initial move, I am using a split-exit strategy:

• Take Profit 1 (50% of position): I set this at a 1:1 Risk/Reward ratio. If my Stop Loss is 3% away, my first Take Profit is 3% up arpox.

  • Why? If the stock jumps just 3%, I sell half. I have now banked enough profit to cover a full loss on the remaining half.

  • Result: I am now in a Risk-Free Trade.

• Take Profit 2 (The Runner): With the risk eliminated, I let the remaining 50% ride the trend toward that 10% or 30% target.

This strategy abruptly increases your win rate and reduces the risk of ruin. In violent breakouts, locking in profit early to fund the “moon shot” is how you survive and thrive.

Risk 0. Upside Unlimited.

See you in the markets.

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The Deal

1. I provide the chart analysis. 📉

2. I keep it completely FREE. 🆓

3. You hit the Share button for more! 🔄

That’s it. Because traders who see early, build wealth different. 🤝

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My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: An 80% success rate backed by strict risk management. All audited in Tradingview and shared in my website.

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The Calm Before the Storm: Mastering the Art of the Exit With a Simple Trick.

Let me share a situation with you that has caused me more anxiety in the market than any other.

You buy a stock, a currency, or a cryptocurrency.

And this time... yes! It starts to climb. And climb. You are up 5%. Then 10%!! Suddenly, you are staring at a 15% gain!!!!

It feels brilliant. You have nailed the entry point, and your ego starts to whisper that you might just be a GENIUS.

But, my friend, this is the easy part of trading. finding entry points is relatively simple.

And this is exactly where our brain serves us a banquet of overwhelming anxiety.

• Do we take that 15% and call it a win? Do we get out?

• But what if I sell and it shoots up to 30%? I entered so perfectly; I better stay. I couldn’t bear missing the rally...

• But what if it suddenly turns around and we drop back to 0%?

If you have ever invested a single dollar, this internal dialogue must resonate deeply within you.

Because we lack control over when to exit, our minds go wild, tossing scenarios into the air like someone plucking petals off a flower to decide their future.

Regaining Control

Today, I want to hand you a tool that will help you identify the precise moment it becomes interesting to reduce positions in a bull market, or even start considering a short position.

This strategy is incredibly simple to execute, and it works on any stock or listed market.

In the charts below, I have marked a few specific candles. These are magnificent candles for identifying when a bullish cycle is coming to an end, or at the very least, is about to take a significant pause.

What do you think they have in common?

Notice that these are charts from very different companies and sectors, in bullish, sideways, or bearish situations.

But all of them mark moments of change. They are highly interesting moments to sell.

What do you believe these candles share?

I am going to give you the answer in a moment, but whether you guessed right or not, I would love to know what went through your mind.

I’ll read you in the comments!

The answer, once you know it, is quite obvious, and it might even make you feel a little frustrated (my apologies!). But the truth is, the answer has always been right there in front of you.

It is like when you do not understand a language: you hear the sounds, but you do not comprehend the meaning. In this case, you have seen it, but perhaps you haven’t realized its significance.

Come on, let me give you one more clue.

Do you see it now?

Precisely.

The volume on those days is absolutely ridiculous.

When you compare it with the surrounding days, these days clearly fall below the average.

In fact, for those of you who love the data, we are talking about volumes in the 2nd or 3rd percentile maximum. That means out of every 100 trading days, we are looking for the 2 or 3 days with the least volume.

Notice that almost every other day surpasses that white line. We are looking for the rare ones!

Important Note: You must NOT count public holidays or the days immediately preceding them. During Christmas, August, and other holidays or semi-holidays, volume is low per se. We are looking for low volume on normal trading days.

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The Psychology of Low Volume

The market moves based on the buying and selling of its participants.

When you buy, an immutable record remains of how many shares were bought and at what price. The sum of these shares and prices creates the trading volume.

When many people are interested in a stock, volume rises. Many shares change hands rapidly, causing the price to climb and climb, provoking even more transactions.

But sometimes, something incredible happens.

The price is making new highs, or is very close to them, yet the volume is ridiculous.

Why?

It means we have reached a point where we have run out of buyers. However, at the same time, the sellers do not want to “undersell”. They are waiting for that buying pressure to appear again.

When it doesn’t happen, and we see a day of low volume because buyers want it cheaper and sellers (for now) don’t want to lower their prices, we see a standoff.

No exchanges are achieved.

When the smartest sellers realize this, they begin to lower their prices in search of liquidity. As this drop in price initiates, the rest of the sellers begin to sell, entering into a progressively greater panic.

These days can signal both trend continuation and trend reversal, but that is a detail requiring a depth we won’t cover today.

Today, I will focus on the days of trend reversal.

Notice that in addition to working in bearish trends, this works equally well for bullish reversals. In fact, on the same chart, you can find opposite examples and make money in both directions, like this:

It even works well on higher timeframes like the Weekly, especially when combined with larger Chart Patterns, such as the Double Bottom.

How to Detect Them

To spot these moments, TradingView offers a very interesting, and quite unknown free indicator.

It is called High/Low Volume.

It marks percentile lines, which helps you visualize the days with the lowest volume. Remember to be careful, many of these marks will be holidays, or days near Christmas or August. Discard those.

Let’s suppose you have just seen a chart like this, with unusually low volume (red bars in the lowest indicator):

Once you detect such a day, the buy or sell signal is not immediate. You must look for the nearest support and be prepared for either a continuation of the trend or a reversal.

In this specific case, I would have a short position prepared near a support level.

Here, the large candle with high volume clearly marks the support levels below (though that is a topic for another article!).

And finally, the best step of all: Enjoy the ride.

I hope that the next time you see a day of low volume, provided it isn’t a holiday, you will see the market through a different lens.

I invite you to start analyzing if this is happening at support or resistance levels, or if it fits with a larger chart pattern to guide your way.

I’ll see you in the markets.

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The Deal

1. I provide the chart analysis. 📉

2. I keep it completely FREE. 🆓

3. You hit the Share button for more! 🔄

That’s it. Because traders who see early, build wealth different. 🤝

Subscribe or Share so the next breakout setup finds you before the market does.

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My process is simple: Filter the noise, find the signal.

Every week, I scan thousands of charts to isolate the top 1%, the rare setups showing genuine institutional footprints. I do the heavy lifting so you can focus on execution.

Results: An 80% success rate backed by strict risk management. All audited in Tradingview and shared in my website.

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MAG 7: Critical Institutional Levels & My Battle Plan

MAG7 with Broadcom instead of Tesla.

#1 NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA has established a stronghold in the $165-$170 zone, presenting a clear buying opportunity to capitalize on the stock’s momentum.

However, watch the $165 level closely. We have virtually zero volume support below this area until $150, meaning a breakdown guarantees a free fall. Losing this level would also confirm a historic Head and Shoulders pattern.

#2 Apple, Inc.

AAPL is maintaining a pristine uptrend, clearly defined by the white trendline.

A few days ago, I called out the Bull Flag breakout, which offered a comfortable, low-risk entry. However, a pullback to a Bull Flag like this, supported by the main trendline, is an even more compelling setup.

I am not missing this second opportunity, especially with a pattern that boasts a success rate exceeding 70%.

🚨 Trade Snapshot

• Entry Price: $277

• Risk per Share: $6.00 ($277 - $271)

• Reward vs. Risk:

  • To Target 1 ($288): 1.83 :1 (100% of the pattern height)

  • To Target 2 ($295): 3.00 :1 (Highly Favorable Ratio and 161,8% of pattern height)

#3 Alphabet, Inc.

GOOG has a strong historical track record with Bull Flags and similar trend continuation structures.

We are currently seeing a potential Bull Flag formation, but it lacks a confirmed breakout. Ideally, I would like to see one more touch of the channel boundary to validate the structure.

We will remain patient with this long setup and let the price action confirm our bias. Long entries only above All-Time Highs for now.

#4 Microsoft Corp.

MSFT printed a textbook Double Top. following the breakdown, price action has already hit the 50% Take Profit mark, though our primary target remains at the 61.8% level.

This specific scenario highlights why risk management is paramount.

I will cover this in a dedicated post soon, how you manage the trade right now is the difference between walking away with a profit or turning a winning setup into a loss.

#5 Amazon.com, Inc.

AMZN currently presents the most peculiar chart among the Mag 7.

It staged a forceful breakout above the $240 resistance, nearly tagging $260, before quickly reversing back below that key level. A bear move. This ‘look above and fail’ action suggests a potential rotation back toward the lower boundary of the long-term bullish channel.

Exercise caution with AMZN while we remain below $240. However, losing the $210 level would be catastrophic for the structure. For now, Wait and see is my favourite strategy here.

#6 Broadcom, Inc.

AVGO is proving to be a technically disconcerting chart.

It has been rallying on Gaps for months, ideal while you are long, but a nightmare for executing Stop Losses. If we see an ‘ORCL-style’ scenario here, we face the risk of severe gap-downs, making effective risk management nearly impossible.

Another major red flag is that we are printing All-Time Highs (ATH) with NO VOLUME. No one is selling, but no one is buying either. This is a tense equilibrium that could resolve painfully in the coming days.

Today, we hit a new ATH only to close red in the form of a Doji.

I’m scared. I am out of the trade, waiting to see if a bearish trigger presents itself.

#7 Meta Platforms, Inc.

META has already provided two clear sell signals.

1. via a Double Top

2. Following the breakdown of key support.

Technically, META exhibits a rare characteristic, its Support and Resistance levels are spaced consistently every 7-8%. This regularity makes the price action highly predictable. At current levels, the strategy is to sell the pullbacks in anticipation of further downside. A good short term strategy in my opinion.

However, take note of the weekly chart (long-term).

The V-shaped reversals seen previously formed a Hammer candle, marking a critical support zone. I do not expect large declines in Meta.

Reviewing the technical landscape of the Magnificent 7, one thing is abundantly clear:

While AAPL offers a pristine trend continuation and NVDA holds the line at critical support, we are seeing serious exhaustion signals in AVGO and confirmed breakdowns in MSFT and AMZN. The divergence between these charts is the most important signal of all.

This is now a stock picker’s environment.

Blindly chasing the index is dangerous.

Focus on the setups with clear confirmation (like AAPL) and stand aside where the volume and structure, like in AVGO or META, are telling you the party might be over.

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The Deal

1. I provide the chart analysis. 📉

2. I keep it completely FREE. 🆓

3. You hit the Share button for more! 🔄

You might just save a fellow trader from a bad entry today!

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When to Buy Bitcoin Again. Spoiler: You May Not Like the Answer

Most people only notice Bitcoin when it makes new all-time highs.

But the real edge comes from understanding its cycle structure, particularly what happens after those highs. If you look past the noise, something very important has just happened:

To understand why this matters, we need to look at the last three full Bitcoin cycles. All of them share the same DNA:

1. A halving event (If you don’t know it yet, it’s key to understand the BTC, read it here).

2. A ~18-month post-halving expansion

3. A trend break

4. A prolonged and violent downcycle

5. A new start, a new bull cycle to enjoy amazing returns.

In the chart below, you can see the 5 phases. Each line represents a previous cycle. Although returns vary across them, the timing remains consistent, except in the first, most violent cycle.​

And right now (the lowest yellow line), Bitcoin is following that script almost perfectly.

1. The Halving Sets the Clock. The 18-Month Expansion Does the Rest.

Across every prior cycle (2012, 2016, 2020), Bitcoin rallied for roughly 18 months after each halving before breaking trend and entering a long decline.

Here’s the pattern:

• Cycle 1 (2012): 12 months of expansion

• Cycle 2 (2016): 18 months

• Cycle 3 (2020): 18 months

• Current cycle (2024): 18 months completed in Oct–Nov 2025

After that? Each cycle produced a decisive trend breakdown.

And now, in late 2025, Bitcoin has just broken that same structural trend.

This is the earliest and clearest signal that the bull phase has ended.

2. Every Previous Cycle Produced a Brutal Downtrend

Once the post-halving expansion ends, Bitcoin doesn’t just pull back, it unwinds aggressively.

Here are the drawdowns from previous cycles:

• Cycle 1: –86%

• Cycle 2: –83%

• Cycle 3: –75%

• Cycle 4 (current one!): You do not need to be a mathematician.

This is where the narrative gets uncomfortable for bulls.

The current cycle’s structure is weaker than the prior ones, and yet…

We are nowhere near a cycle bottom.

Even a “mild” cycle correction of –60% from the 2025 highs would place Bitcoin dramatically lower than today in the $50,000 zone and a “Common” correction will send the price to $30,000.

3. Timing the Downcycle: Why Late 2026 Matters

The past cycles also share another characteristic. The downtrend lasts roughly ONE year.

• 2014 peak → 2015 bottom

• 2017 peak → 2018/19 bottom

• 2021 peak → late 2022 bottom

If this cycle follows the historical rhythm, then breaking trend in late 2025 implies a bottom in…

Late 2026.

This aligns with the structural cadence that Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.

And that means the next real accumulation window is still ahead, not behind.

4. So Where Are We Now?

Here’s what the data suggests:

• The 18-month post-halving rally completed right on time.

• Bitcoin has now broken its bull-trend structure.

• Historically, this is the exact moment when multi-year declines begin.

• The average drawdown is around 80%, but let’s expect some market maturity and consequently a drawdown in the -60/70% area.

• The bottom is statistically most likely to form…

…in late 2026 somewhere between $30k and $50k

If history repeats, or even rhymes, investors should be preparing for volatility, dislocation, fear, and lastly a genuine opportunity.

The next year for Bitcoin chart is probably going to be something like this:

In other words:

5. The future is now clear, let’s make money.

Most market participants don’t study structure, they study headlines.

We just entered the part of the cycle where discipline matters more than hype, and where strategic positioning becomes crucial.

It’s not time to rush in. It’s time to prepare.

During this decline there will be opportunities, and we have seen some recently. All the shorts that can be made near resistance zones will be amazing. Please remember and easy are to find the support and resistance zones in Bitcoin!

In a world where creators chase subscriptions at every turn, imagine the relief of pure value without strings attached.

Just hit that like or share button; together, we can do it!

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Monday Edge (I)

This week I want to keep it simple, I always say that I trade with rules, not with emotions.

And the best example right now is Microsoft.

The MSFT Double Top

Some weeks ago, I spotted a clear double top on the MSFT chart, exactly the kind of pattern we study in this Substack.​ You can check in my previous article.

The pattern was confirmed when price broke the neckline to the downside, and since then price has already reached the 50% Fibonacci level of the whole move.​

By system, my take profits is not at 50%, but at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, so I am still in the trade.​

This is important: the rules say I stay in while price do not hit 61.8% level, even if the market feels uncomfortable.​

The Three Possible Scenarios

From here, I see 3 clear scenarios on MSFT.

Knowing these three in advance removes most of the stress.

1. Price makes a pullback to the blue neckline zone and then falls again, reaching my take profit at the 61.8% target.​

   

2. Price hits my stop loss and then drops again, without breaking the two previous highs above.​

   

3. Price hits my stop loss and then breaks above those two highs, cancelling the double top and starting a new bullish leg.​

   

In all three cases, I know exactly what to do before it happens.

How To Trade Each Scenario

While stop loss does not trigger, I keep my position and trust the statistics behind this pattern and target.​

In my backtests, the 61.8% target on this type of double top is hit about 60% of the time. That’s why the plan is to stay in the trade and let the edge play out. Also, I’m risking much less than what I stand to gain, which makes a 60% probability even more attractive

If price finally hits stop loss, I close the trade and accept the small loss as part of the game.​

From that moment, I simply watch price: if it then breaks above the two highs, I switch the bias and look to buy, aiming for a new rally to fresh all‑time highs in MSFT.​

The Calm Of A Clear Plan

Do you see how calm trading becomes when every scenario already has a plan?

There is no need to predict, only to react with discipline.

With a clear methodology, small losses are just the cost of doing business, and big moves become opportunities instead of stress.​

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A Fast Check in SPX for the week

In the last months, SPX has climbed in a very steady way, with almost no deep corrections and a strong “buy the dip” mentality.​

Macro risks, political noise and earnings worries have been there, but price has largely ignored them and pushed toward new or near‑record highs.​

This is what complacency looks like on a chart: shallow pullbacks, fast recoveries, and volatility staying low while optimism stays high.​

It feels safe, but it is exactly in these moments when a small crack in the trend can become very important.​

A First Crack And A New Support

Recently, SPX broke a minor short‑term trendline (dotted white line in the next chart), nothing dramatic on its own, but enough to draw a first clear support zone on the chart.​​

That break forced some traders to take profits and sell, showing that conviction is no longer 100% one‑way.​

At that new support area, fresh buyers stepped in again, betting that the old pattern of complacent buying will return and push prices higher.​

This “sell a bit, then buy again at support” behaviour is typical of late‑stage rallies where people still trust the trend but are a little more nervous.​

Why I Prefer To Watch, Not Trade

Right now, SPX is in a very sensitive spot: close enough to think about new highs, but also close enough to the kind of structure that can turn into a head and shoulders pattern.​

If price holds, we could see another leg up and a continuation of the bull move. If it fails, we might get a much deeper correction.​

For this reason, this is not my favourite moment to open new trades on the index, the risk is too bif right now.

Instead, it is a perfect time to observe how price behaves around this potential neckline area, to plan what to do in both scenarios before they happen.​​

The Power Of A Head And Shoulders

A confirmed head and shoulders at the end of a strong uptrend is no joke.

When it breaks, it often marks a real change in sentiment, and the drop can be violent.​

Look at past examples:

When Tesla broke down from a head and shoulders structure, the stock accelerated lower as sellers took control and late buyers were forced out.​ A 50% decline happened.

Novo Nordisk also suffered a heavy drawdown (>50%) after forming a large topping structure on the chart, helped by fundamental doubts around its growth story.​

Staying Ready For Both Outcomes

So what is the plan?

For now, SPX stays on the watchlist, not in the portfolio.

If price defends support and starts to push to new highs, I will not be willing to buy for the long run, but maybe for some fast profits to benefit from the momentum.

If price instead builds and confirms a head and shoulders, the priority will shift to protection, hedging, or even short setups depending on each trader’s style.​

This is the beauty of trading with patterns and context, there is no need to guess the future. Just plan, act and enjoy!

We’re always on the hunt for assets ready to make big moves in the coming weeks.

Our secret? We use proven, reliable chart patterns, found with advanced algorithms, to discover great opportunities. Then, we back up our picks with solid fundamental analysis to make sure each trade is built on a strong foundation.

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Double Tops Appeared In Various Big Techs

I’ll be honest with you.

There are weeks when I open my charts and I just smile.

Why? Because price action is talking loud and clear.

And right now, it’s shouting: Double Tops everywhere!

If you’ve been following my posts, you already know how much I love these patterns.

Not because they’re perfect, but because they’re simple, powerful, and honest. And they’re the reason I became a trader.

When you learn to read a Double Top or a Double Bottom, you start to see how markets breathe.

You don’t need 10 indicators.

The Magic Behind the Double Top

A Double Top often marks the start of a resistance zone, the point where buyers start losing strength.

The first top? Hard to predict.

The second one? That’s where the story gets interesting.

When price fails to make a new high and forms that second top, it’s like the market saying:

“Hey, the bulls are tired.”

From there, two main things can happen:

1. Bulls take profits after a big rally.

2. Or buyers simply disappear, and the bears take control. This is the funny scenario!

My job is to spot which case we’re in, because that’s what tells us whether to buy the dip, take profits, or even short the market.

But… where are these Double Tops appearing?

Microsoft (MSFT): The Textbook Setup

Just look at this beauty.

MSFT has drawn the kind of Double Top that you could teach from.

Two clean peaks, same price level, perfect neckline.

If the neckline breaks? That’s our entry.

If it holds? We walk away, no harm, no emotions, no trade executed. In fact, if the price breaks upwards this is a resistance breakout and would be a great opportunity to join the rally if you are not in yet.

My plan here:

• Entry: Just below the neckline

• Stop Loss: Above 38.2% of the pattern neckline

• Targets: 61.8% for a quick hit, 100% for the patient move

It’s that simple.

You just react with a plan.

Alphabet (GOOGL): The Early Signal

GOOGL’s chart is showing a smaller Double Top, but don’t underestimate it.

These little ones often mark the first signs of exhaustion after a long run.

If buyers can’t push to new highs, it’s not random, it’s psychology. It’s people locking profits. It’s hesitation.

And hesitation is often the seed of reversals.

Keep an eye on the neckline.

If it breaks, we know exactly what to do.

If not, patience. Always patience.

Tesla (TSLA): The Breakout Moment

And then we have Tesla, breaking that neckline hard. Is this the road to follow for the other companies?

This is the kind of setup that makes trading feel alive.

You spot the pattern, wait for confirmation, and boom!!! The market gives you the signal.

Entry, stop, take profit. Clean, mechanical, professional. Use again the previous Fibo percentages:

• Entry: Just below the neckline (done)

• Stop Loss: Above 38.2% of the pattern neckline

• Targets: 61.8% for a quick hit, 100% for the patient move

Why this again?

Because there is a plan.

This is trading.

Three Possible Scenarios, Always the Same Rules

Every Double Top ends up in one of three situations:

1. No break: pattern fails, no trade. Keep waiting.

2. Clean break: big, fast profits.

3. Fake break: This pattern traps everyone, then reverses explosively. You’ll get trapped in the short position, so you need to set a tight stop loss and be ready to buy in the opposite direction. Changing your mind quickly is the difference between ending with a full stop loss or with a small stop loss and a massive rally.

And that’s what matters at the end.

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From Theory to Real Trades

We’ve talked about this pattern before, on TradingView, on Substack, everywhere.

But now it’s happening live.

MSFT. GOOGL. TSLA.

Three giants showing the same pattern at once.

It’s not theory anymore. It’s a chance to practice:

• Define your neckline.

• Wait for confirmation.

• Manage your stop loss.

• Take profits at your Fibonacci levels.

That’s it. That’s how you turn charts into money.

Why I Love This Game

Trading isn’t just charts and numbers. It’s emotion, psychology, and timing.

It’s learning when to act, and when to do nothing. And doing nothing is as important as doing it when it’s the right moment.

And for me, it’s pure passion.

I’ve seen Double Tops fail, fake out, and explode.

And every time, I still love the process.

Because behind every pattern, there’s a story, of fear and greed.

In the previous article, I shared how I first got into trading and what experiences shaped the way I see the markets today.

This time, I’ll focus on the strategy, based on a single pattern, that led me to consistent profits and, most importantly, showed me how the market really works.

🧩 The Market Is 50/50... Or Is It?

Nowadays, trading costs are almost zero, so let’s assume you have a 50/50 chance of winning or losing every time you enter a trade.

For example:

If you buy a stock with a +5% take profit and a –5% stop loss, in theory, you should end up breaking even over time... right?

❌ Wrong.

That’s one of the biggest misconceptions inspired by ideas like A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

It’s simply not true.

With that same +5% / -5% setup, you’d actually make money over time.

Why? Because while the market is unpredictable in the short term, it drifts upward in the long run.

If you’ve ever studied quantitative models, you’ll know they include a parameter called drift, the bias that represents the market’s long-term upward tendency.

And this isn’t opinion, it’s statistics.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has had roughly 65% positive months and 35% negative ones.
That bias, the drift, keeps pushing markets higher.

But enough numbers! Let’s get back to trading.

💭 Why Not Just Buy & Hold?

If a simple +5% / -5% strategy can make money because of the drift, then why not just buy and hold forever and avoid trading fees?

Good question.

That’s the logic behind Buy & Hold, and yes, it works long term if you can stomach the drawdowns.

But here’s the problem: you must be ready for 5, 10, or even 20 years without new highs.

We’re in a bullish phase right now, but

And when it does…

That’s why so many people panic sell.

Look at Buffett, during strong rallies, he’s quietly preparing cash for the next big drop.

He’s a true value investor who knows what’s coming.

So, be careful with Buy & Hold right now and all those gurús out there.

🎥 Highly recommend: Warren Buffett explains it in 5 minutes

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📊 Understanding the Market at Its Core

At its simplest, the market is 60% bullish and 40% bearish.

The question is:

👉 How can we exploit that more effectively than Buy & Hold?

Here’s what we need:

• ✅ Clear and objective entry points, ideally rule-based.

• ✅ Predefined exits, based on stats, not emotions.

• ✅ Risk management strong enough to survive bad streaks.

• ✅ Simple setups, easy to identify.

• ✅ Short-term trades (days or weeks, not months).

• ✅ Both long and short opportunities, to balance exposure.

After testing countless indicators, combinations, and models, I realized something simple but powerful:

👉 Only price itself could give me everything I needed.

So I studied chart patterns in depth, and that’s when I found the one.

🔍 The Pattern That Changed Everything

I discovered one pattern that checked every single box above.

I studied it in detail, defined clear entries and exits, and tested it until I could trust it.

That pattern is:

Double Tops and Double Bottoms.

A Double Bottom happens when price bounces twice at the same level and then breaks upward.

A Double Top is the mirror, two highs followed by a breakdown.

For example, you can see a Double Top unfolding now in Microsoft. But note that unless the price breaks down the Blue neckline, the Double Top is not valid.

I’ve placed a sell under the neckline, but if the price do new ATH, then the pattern is invalid.

A few rules matter to optimize the pattern: distance between highs/lows, the previous trend, volume, and tolerance between levels.

But overall, it’s objective and even possible to detect automatically.

So, I had the entry part solved. The green area under the neckline (or above for Double bottoms) is absolutely clear.

Next, I needed to define where to exit, where to place stops and take profits.

After months of testing using volatility, support/resistance, and volume data…
Fibonacci came to the rescue with its simplicity.

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📈 The Numbers: 171 Patterns Tested

I tested 171 Double Tops and Bottoms on U.S. markets between late 2023 and early 2025 for this post and outside my usual statistics, just to demonstrate that this pattern is solid in any market, at any time.

Each trade used:

• Stop Loss: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the neckline (SL shown in red).

  → Once price breaks the neckline, it must not retrace more than 38.2% into the pattern.

• Take Profit: variable. Tested at 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 100%, and 200% of the pattern size. But let’s focus on 38,2% for now, shown in White.

Results:

✅ TP = 38.2% / SL = 38.2% → Win rate = 66%

That’s a clear statistical edge, consistent across markets and timeframes.

But we’re not here to settle. Let’s push further.

If you trade only Double Bottoms, your win rate jumps to 75%.

For Double Tops, it drops to 56%.

At first glance, you might think: “Just stick to Double Bottoms!”

But that’s a trap.

Recent years have been bullish, so bottoms naturally perform better.

The real takeaway is that even against the trend, Double Tops still win more than half the time, which is huge.

That’s why I always keep 25–30% of my capital in bearish trades, even during strong rallies.

Now, if we move the TP to 61.8%, the win rate drops to 54%, but the profit per trade increases, and that’s what matters.

💰 For every €1,000 invested:

• TP at 38.2% → +€123 average gain

• TP at 61.8% → +€152 average gain

And yes, I shared some ideas for Double Tops and Bottoms in TradingView:

• A profitable Double Top in the middle of the big rally.

• A non executed Double Bottom.

🧠 Simple. Powerful. Real.

Buy & Hold is great for long-term wealth, but if you truly want to understand how markets work, this is it.

From here, I expanded endlessly, adding more patterns, optimizing by sector, volatility…

The road ahead is complex, but that’s trading.

You’re competing with the best.

Whether you take the challenge or not, that’s entirely up to you.