Midterm Elections, Iran Risk & a Market Facing Another Important Test

This week’s report focuses on how I am preparing the portfolio for the next one to two weeks. I break down where I may reduce or add spot equity exposure, which days I am watching for potential buying and selling opportunities, and which sectors I am considering for call and put strategies.

Alongside the portfolio plan, I am sharing 32 detailed trading scenarios across SPY, QQQ, ES and NQ, covering potential opportunities throughout the entire trading week. Each scenario includes key levels, entry conditions, profit targets and invalidation points to help you prepare for different market conditions.

What’s Inside This Weekly Premium Market Outlook

1. Our portfolio plan for the next one to two weeks, including where and when I may reduce exposure or add to selected equity positions.

2. The sectors I am watching for potential call and put opportunities, and how these positions may help manage overall portfolio risk.

3. Detailed SPY and QQQ scenarios with key levels, entry conditions, targets and invalidation points.

4. ES and NQ futures scenarios, including the important levels and confirmations I am waiting for.

5. The macro, liquidity and sentiment conditions that could influence these decisions and change our positioning.

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Market Macro Sentiment

US-Iran Conflict and Tuesday’s Midterm Elections

The US-Iran conflict remains the biggest geopolitical risk for markets this week. Trump is avoiding a new military operation before Tuesday’s midterm elections, but there is a growing possibility of renewed attacks immediately after the vote if no agreement is reached. This is something investors cannot ignore.

Oil prices have already moved higher as the market started pricing in this possibility. Brent finished October near its highest levels in six months. Oil is pulling back today as diplomatic hopes improve, but I would not treat this as a resolution. If the conflict escalates again after the elections, energy prices could move sharply higher.

The timing is important. Markets may remain relatively stable while investors wait for the election results, but the situation could change quickly once the vote is over. Any sign of renewed military action could bring another wave of risk off positioning.

Middle East Energy Supply Remains Under Pressure

Iran and Qatar are still discussing a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but there is no clear agreement yet. At the same time, Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep the Bab el-Mandeb route at risk. Global energy inventories have also taken a major hit since the conflict began, leaving less room to absorb another supply disruption.

There is some positive news from the Russia-Ukraine front. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have paused following US diplomatic efforts, giving Russian fuel production some room to recover. This could help supply conditions in Europe, especially as winter approaches.

However, the Middle East remains the bigger concern. With Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb both exposed to disruption, another escalation could quickly put pressure on global energy supply. That would also bring inflation concerns back into focus.

Treasury Yields Are Falling, but Credit Risk Remains

US 10 year Treasury yields have pulled back from their recent highs, but I would not read this as a clear Risk On signal yet. The recent move lower has come alongside selling pressure in technology stocks. This suggests that some investors may be moving into Treasuries for safety rather than rotating back into risk assets.

Credit markets are still the important part of this picture. HYG remains a key indicator to watch against IEF. If high yield bonds continue to underperform Treasuries, falling yields could actually be telling us that credit risk is increasing.

Japan is another factor to monitor. Its 10 year yield is now close to 2.7%, which keeps pressure on global carry trades and liquidity. If Japanese yields continue moving higher, the cost of funding through the yen could become another problem for risk assets.

For a healthier market setup, I want to see Treasury yields move lower while HYG starts performing better against IEF. Until that happens, the decline in yields needs to be treated with caution.

The Dollar, Fed Policy and NFP Could Change the Market Tone

DXY has pulled back as oil prices ease and diplomatic hopes improve. This is giving risk assets some relief for now. However, if tensions with Iran increase again after Tuesday’s elections, the Dollar could quickly strengthen and put more pressure on equities.

The Fed recently kept rates unchanged, but the decision was not particularly dovish. Kevin Warsh’s comments and the possibility of another rate move before year end remain important. The market still needs to understand how the Fed is looking at inflation, employment and the risk of another rate increase.

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report will be another major event. Strong employment data could push Treasury yields and the Dollar higher, while weaker numbers could bring growth concerns back into focus. Either outcome could change market expectations for the December rate decision.

This makes Friday’s data especially important. I will be watching the reaction in yields, DXY and equities rather than focusing only on the headline number.

AI Spending Concerns Are Putting Pressure on Technology Stocks

Last week’s earnings from Alphabet, Amazon and Intel brought AI spending back into focus. Investors are starting to question how quickly these massive investments will generate returns, and we have already seen selling pressure across technology and semiconductor stocks.

The issue is not simply whether these companies are growing. The market also wants to see whether the money being spent on AI infrastructure is turning into stronger business results and future profits.

This week, Apple, AMD, Palantir, Arm and Qualcomm earnings will be important. Their results and guidance could influence the entire technology sector, especially semiconductor stocks.

If companies provide strong guidance and show that AI spending is producing results, technology could recover. If investors remain concerned about costs and returns, selling pressure could continue.

The Bottom Line

There are two major events I am watching this week: Tuesday’s midterm elections and Friday’s NFP report.

If no agreement is reached with Iran before the elections, the risk of renewed military action could push oil prices sharply higher and create another risk off move. The energy supply situation is already fragile, so markets may react strongly to any new development.

At the same time, falling Treasury yields are not giving us a clear Risk On signal because credit markets are still showing weakness. HYG/IEF, the Dollar and technology stocks will be important indicators to follow.

For now, I remain cautious. The market can still recover, but there are enough risks this week to make any strong move less reliable until we get more clarity. I want to see confirmation from price and positioning before increasing exposure.

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Market Fear & Greed

Market sentiment is currently at 26, placing the market in Fear and very close to Extreme Fear. The reading has remained around these levels since last week, showing that confidence is still very weak.

At these levels, the market can produce sharp selloffs. But this is also where strong upside moves can develop. When positioning becomes heavily defensive, even a small positive macro headline can trigger a sharp bullish squeeze.

That is why I see this as a two sided environment. Fear can create aggressive downside moves, but it can also provide the conditions for powerful recoveries. Being too heavily positioned on the short side can become dangerous if the market suddenly finds a positive catalyst.

I am not treating this reading as an automatic buy signal. It tells us that the market is under pressure and that volatility can increase in either direction. Price confirmation remains the priority.

Risk Index

What is the Risk Index Oscillator?

This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.

Current readings:

Long Term: Risk On

Mid Term: Slightly Risk Off

Short Term: Risk Off

The short term market structure remains Risk Off, so further downside pressure is possible. The mid term structure has also weakened and moved into Slightly Risk Off territory, while the long term reading remains Risk On.

This is an important change. The weakness is no longer limited to the short-term timeframe. The mid term structure is also losing strength, which means the market may need more time and stronger confirmation before the bullish trend can recover.

However, positive developments around the Iran conflict could change the picture quickly. If diplomatic progress reduces geopolitical risk, markets could move back into a much stronger Risk On environment.

For now, the short and midterm readings call for caution. The longterm structure is still supportive, but that does not mean we should ignore the current risk.

Premium Section

The sections above outline the macro environment and the sentiment backdrop currently shaping market behavior.

Below the paywall, I walk through the positioning data, options sentiment, key liquidity levels, and the exact ES, NQ, SPY and QQQ zones I am watching this week. This includes the levels where I expect potential bounces, breakdowns, or volatility expansions to develop.

If you want to see the full positioning analysis and the technical execution framework for the week ahead, the remainder of this report is available to premium members.

Options Sentiment

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Five trades, five winners. SPY delivered two profitable setups, NQ gave us two more, and ES completed another full target short. Meanwhile, our equity portfolio continued performing while technology stocks came under heavy selling pressure.

WEEK 43 SCOREBOARD

• Total Trades Closed: 5

• Winning Trades: 5

• Losing Trades: 0

• Win Rate: 100%

• Index Options: 2 Trades | 2 Wins

• Futures Desk: 3 Trades | 3 Wins

• New Equity Trades: 0

• XOM Calls: $6.30 → $22.50 | +257.1% (Open)

• COST Calls: $45.00 → $57.30 | +27.3% (Open)

• CRWD Calls: $24.50 → $31.50 | +28.6% (Open)

• CRWD Partial: $24.50 → $32.00 | +30.6% on 25% of the position

• Precious Metals / Forex: 0 Trades

Active positions: $XOM, $COST and $CRWD.

Week 43 was a very good example of why we focus on execution rather than trying to predict the market’s direction. We had five valid index setups and all five reached their planned targets. At the same time, we avoided chasing the AI related rally early in the week and kept our portfolio positioned across sectors that were showing relative strength.

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$SPY | Two Trades, Two Full Winners

SPY gave us two separate opportunities this week.

The first came on Monday, October 26. Long Scenario 1 activated after price broke above the 765.50 Flip Area, returned for a retest and produced the required 1-hour confirmation. We entered according to plan and SPY expanded toward 771, delivering approximately 5.7 points or 0.75% of upside. All planned targets were reached.

The second opportunity came on Wednesday during the PM session. Price tested Supply 1 around 771 and produced the 1-hour bearish rejection required for Short Scenario 2. We entered and held the position according to the management plan published in the Weekly Outlook, exiting at Friday’s market open.

The move delivered approximately 11.8 points of downside, or 1.5%. Price continued falling after our exit, so holding a runner would have produced a larger result. However, we followed the original management plan and secured a very good profit.

SPY finished with two trades and two full winners.

$QQQ | No Retest, No Entry

QQQ broke above the 708 Flip Area, activating the breakout conditions for Long Scenario 1. However, the required retest never came.

We did not enter. The breakout alone was not enough to satisfy our execution rules, so QQQ finished the week without a trade.

This is exactly why we separate a level breakout from an actual entry. Price can move without us, and that is perfectly fine when the setup is incomplete.

ES | Supply Rejection Delivered 126 Points

ES broke above the 7,690 Flip Area earlier in the week, but failed to provide the required retest for Long Scenario 1. We stayed out.

Wednesday brought a different opportunity. Price tested Supply 1 around 7,775 and produced the bearish rejection required for Short Scenario 2. We entered the short and followed the planned targets.

ES dropped toward 7,655, delivering approximately 126 points of downside, or 1.62%. All planned profit targets were reached and we closed the position with full profit.

ES finished with one trade and one winner.

NQ | Two Setups Delivered 1,244 Points

NQ gave us two excellent opportunities this week, capturing 700 points on Tuesday’s Long Scenario 2 and another 544 points on Wednesday’s Short Scenario 1. That brought our total to 1,244 points across two NQ trades.

The first started on Monday when price broke below Demand 1 around 29,335. On Tuesday, NQ returned to retest the broken area and activated Long Scenario 2. We entered after confirmation and the market reached all three planned targets at 29,500, 29,750 and 30,000.

The second setup came on Wednesday when price reached the Flip Area and activated Short Scenario 1. Since NQ had already made a considerable move, we entered with half size rather than chasing the extended move with full exposure.

The market continued lower and reached every planned target at 29,800, 29,600 and 29,350. We secured full profits before Thursday’s market close.

NQ finished with two trades and two full winners. Both directions worked, and both entries followed the original execution rules.

Equity & Options Desk | Positioned for the Rotation

While technology stocks were attracting aggressive buying on Tuesday and Wednesday, we were not chasing the AI related rally.

We had already discussed the possibility of a bull trap with our members and highlighted the risk of buying into an extended move. Instead of adding more technology exposure at elevated levels, we maintained positions in energy, consumer staples and a technology name showing relative strength.

When selling accelerated on Thursday and Friday, even NQ dropped approximately 3.5%. Meanwhile, XOM and COST continued moving higher, while CRWD remained relatively resilient.

This is where portfolio management becomes important.

$XOM | Energy Exposure Continues to Pay

Our XOM Calls were originally entered at $6.30 per contract. Energy remained one of the strongest areas of the market, and this position continued benefiting from that rotation.

By Friday’s close, the contracts were trading around $22.50.

$6.30 → $22.50 = +257.1%

The position remains open and continues to serve as an important part of our energy exposure.

$COST | Consumer Staples Strength

COST was another position benefiting from the rotation into defensive consumer stocks. We entered the Calls around $45.00 per contract and maintained the position without taking partial profits.

By Friday’s close, the contracts reached approximately $57.30.

$45.00 → $57.30 = +27.3%

The position remains open and in profit. We are continuing to manage it under the original plan.

$CRWD | Relative Strength During Technology Selling

CRWD was particularly interesting this week. While technology stocks were under heavy selling pressure and Fortinet dropped approximately 25%, CRWD maintained a much stronger structure.

We had already identified it as one of the technology names that could recover first once selling pressure started to stabilize. Our Calls were entered around $24.50 per contract.

By Friday’s close, the contracts were trading around $31.50, approximately 28.6% above our entry.

We also took a 25% partial at $32.00, securing a 30.6% return on that portion. The remaining position is still open.

CRWD remains one of our preferred names if risk appetite returns. The technical structure is still constructive, and the potential asymmetric opportunity remains interesting.

Following the Money Rotation

The biggest takeaway from the Equity Desk this week was how we managed exposure before the market started selling off.

We did not chase the AI related rally on Tuesday and Wednesday because we understood that an extended move could reverse quickly. Instead, we maintained exposure in sectors showing relative strength.

When the selling arrived, XOM and COST continued moving higher, while CRWD held up significantly better than many other technology names.

This is one of UA CAPITAL’s strongest areas: active portfolio and exposure management.

We are not simply looking for individual stocks that might go up. We are looking at how different positions behave relative to each other, where capital is rotating, and how sector exposure can help balance the portfolio.

We follow the money rotation rather than chasing the latest market narrative.

That is how we aim to stay positioned when market conditions change.

Premium | The Execution Behind the Results

The scenarios and positions reviewed in this recap are part of the research and execution process shared with our Premium members.

Premium members receive weekly SPY and QQQ scenarios, ES and NQ execution levels, daily premarket plans and midweek updates when market conditions change.

For the equity and options desk, we also share the exact option contracts used in our own positions, including entries, partial exits and ongoing position management updates through our private Telegram desk.

This week, that meant having the SPY and NQ scenarios before the moves, avoiding the incomplete QQQ breakout, and following our XOM, COST and CRWD positions while the technology sector was under pressure.

The value is not simply knowing which ticker we are watching. It is following the entire process, from the original thesis and contract selection to risk management, profit taking and exit decisions.

The Weekly Outlook gives members the scenarios. Premium Substack and Telegram provide the additional research and real time execution updates as the market develops.

If you want access to the full UA CAPITAL research and execution desk, you can join through the link below.

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New Weekly Stocks & Options Outlook on YouTube

The latest UA CAPITAL Weekly Stocks & Options Outlook is also available on YouTube.

This week we cover SPY and QQQ, along with six individual stock setups:

• $DELL — Dell Technologies

• $SNDK — SanDisk

• $MU — Micron Technology

• $MRVL — Marvell Technology

• $OXY — Occidental Petroleum

• $CRWD — CrowdStrike

We look at the technical structures, important demand and supply areas, and potential opportunities across technology, energy and individual equities.

If you trade stocks and options, these reviews are an important part of identifying opportunities outside the major indices.

The YouTube channel focuses on the higher-timeframe weekly picture and visual market analysis. The Substack scenarios are developed separately, with different levels, confirmation rules and execution plans.

Use YouTube to follow the weekly market structure and stock watchlist. Use Premium Substack for the additional execution research and ongoing position management.

Final Thoughts

Week 43 was a very strong week across our index desk. Five valid trades, five winners, and every position reached its planned targets. We also avoided chasing the AI rally and maintained exposure in sectors that continued showing strength when the market reversed.

XOM reached +257.1% from its original contract entry, COST reached +27.3%, and CRWD remained strong with a profitable partial already secured.

The important part was not predicting Thursday and Friday’s selloff. It was having a portfolio that was not entirely dependent on technology stocks continuing higher.

We followed the rotation, managed exposure and stayed disciplined with our index execution.

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Share Market Context

Technology and AI related stocks are facing heavy selling pressure following weaker than expected earnings from several AI companies and semiconductor manufacturers.

With the macro environment already showing signs of strain, concerns about the sustainability of AI earnings have triggered another aggressive wave of selling across the market.

Meanwhile, as expected, we’re seeing capital rotation into Consumer and Financials. Traditional Energy is also showing considerable strength.

$XOM reported strong earnings and is moving higher in pre market trading.

Indices | ES, SPY, NQ & QQQ

As discussed yesterday, we’ve already captured some excellent downside moves across the indices.

NQ | Short Scenario 1 | Fully Closed

We previously entered Short positions from the Flip Area, following Short Scenario 1 from our Weekly Market Outlook.

Our final target was 29,330, and we closed the entire position there as planned.

Total Move: 700 points
Return: -2.3% market movement in our favor

An excellent trade from our predefined scenario.

ES | Short Scenario 2 | Fully Closed

As discussed yesterday, we had also opened Short positions around Supply 1, following Short Scenario 2.

The trade delivered an 85-point move, approximately 1.1% downside.

We’ve closed our ES Shorts and realized the profits.

SPY | Short Scenario 2 | Taking Profits

Our SPY Puts from Supply 1 also delivered an excellent move.

Although our final target was 765, the overnight selloff extended much further than expected.

SPY is showing approximately 10 points of downside, equivalent to around 1.25%, in pre-market trading.

I’ll be closing the remaining SPY Put positions at the market open.

All these trades followed the scenarios published in our Weekly Market Outlook.

Current Equity Positions | Position Management

$XOM | Energy Hedge

$XOM continues to perform exceptionally well following its strong earnings report.

Contract: $XOM 165C | NOV 20 EXP

Entry: $6.30 per contract
Current: $23.00 per contract
Unrealized Return: +265.1%

We’ve already taken multiple rounds of partial profits and continue holding the remaining exposure.

This position was originally opened as an energy and crude oil hedge, particularly against the possibility of geopolitical escalation after the midterms.

We’re continuing to hold it for that purpose.

$CRWD | Holding

Technology stocks have faced additional selling pressure, and $CRWD has also experienced some weakness.

However, compared with other names in the sector, CRWD continues to show relative strength.

Following the disappointing earnings report from $FTNT, we saw significant selling across cybersecurity stocks. I previously mentioned that I wasn’t expecting the initial reaction to be permanent, and CRWD managed to recover much of that pressure.

Contract: $CRWD 240C | DEC 18 EXP

Entry: $24.50 per contract
Current: Approximately $36.00 per contract
Unrealized Return: +46.9%

We already took 25% partial profits on this position.

We’re continuing to hold the remaining contracts.

$COST | Holding

As expected, we’ve seen a recovery in $COST.

Capital rotation into Consumer Staples is supporting the stock, and its technical structure continues to look constructive.

Contract: $COST 980C | DEC 18 EXP

Entry: $45.00 per contract
Current: Approximately $47.00 per contract
Unrealized Return: +4.4%

We’re continuing to hold this position.

Today’s Plan

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Yesterday’s FOMC meeting didn’t change the overall market structure. We’re still dealing with a choppy, range bound market, which is one of the most difficult environments to trade. Price keeps moving back and forth, and positions can easily turn against us the following day.

This is not a market where we should be opening trades out of excitement. We’re still seeing a lot of whipsaw price action, so patience and strict risk management are essential.

Credit markets remain under significant pressure, putting a lid on the broader market. We’re not seeing a convincing bullish structure, particularly in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, which continue to face heavy selling pressure.

We may need to complete more of our profit taking and gradually move toward Puts before or after the midterms, depending on how the market develops.

Indices | ES, SPY, NQ & QQQ

ES & SPY | Short Scenario 2

As discussed yesterday, both ES and SPY reacted from the Supply 1 zones identified in our Weekly Market Outlook and activated Short Scenario 2.

We anticipated a potential rejection from these levels, and the market followed the expected scenario.

I have a few small Put positions open from this move, and they’re currently in profit.

NQ | Short Scenario 1

The expected short setup from the Flip Area triggered on NQ, but QQQ didn’t provide the same entry opportunity.

We entered a Short position through NQ futures and have already taken two partial profits.

The final target remains 29,350, as outlined in Short Scenario 1.

So far, NQ has dropped 544 points, equivalent to approximately 1.8%. This was a very good move from our predefined scenario.

The key levels and scenarios from our Weekly Market Outlook remain valid for all four indices. Price is still trading within the same general ranges, so there’s no need to change our plans at this stage.

Stock Options

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Today’s FOMC meeting is the main event for the market. The Fed’s rate decision will be followed by its monetary policy statement and press conference.

The market is pricing in approximately a 90% probability of rates remaining unchanged, with around a 10% probability of a rate hike. My expectation is also for the Fed to hold rates steady, so I don’t expect the decision itself to come as a major surprise.

The press conference, scheduled for 2:30 PM ET, will be particularly important. The Fed’s comments and forward guidance could trigger significant volatility, with price potentially moving in both directions before establishing a clear trend.

For this reason, I don’t plan to open new positions before or during the event. There’s little reason to expose additional capital to unnecessary volatility when the market can produce fakeouts in either direction.

We may find opportunities after the press conference, potentially before the market closes, but that will depend entirely on how price reacts to the announcement.

Our priority today is to protect capital and avoid forcing trades.

Long Term Technology Portfolio: Preparing for the Midterms

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Fed Week, Weak Credit Confirmation & Market Sitting Near an Important Decision Point

US equities are entering a major week with the macro picture still sending mixed signals. Treasury yields and the Dollar have eased from recent highs, while crude oil is currently trading around 2% lower ahead of the US cash open. That move is supportive on the surface, but it is still too early to call it a real change in the energy trend. Credit markets are also not fully confirming a clean Risk On move, while Middle East risk, Japan, the Fed and Big Tech earnings can quickly change the market tone.

This week’s Premium Market Outlook focuses on:

1. Why falling Treasury yields are not automatically bullish while HYG continues to lag IEF.

2. How the US-Iran conflict, Saudi infrastructure attacks and Bab el-Mandeb continue to create energy risk.

3. Why Wednesday’s Fed decision and Warsh’s comments matter more than the expected rate hold itself.

4. What Fear & Greed, Options Sentiment and the UA CAPITAL Risk Index are showing as short and mid term conditions weaken.

5. Where SPY options positioning could provide support if the market pulls back.

6. The exact SPY, ES, QQQ and NQ levels I am watching for bullish recoveries and bearish continuation setups.

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Market Macro Sentiment

Middle East and Energy Risks Remain the Main Geopolitical Pressure

The US-Iran conflict remains unresolved, while tension around the Strait of Hormuz is still high. At the same time, continued Houthi attacks against Saudi infrastructure and growing pressure around Bab el-Mandeb create another risk for global energy and shipping routes.

Crude oil is currently trading around 2% lower ahead of the US market open. That gives risk assets some relief for now, but I would not read too much into one pre market move.

The US cash session has not opened yet, and oil could easily recover part or all of the decline as liquidity increases. I want to see whether sellers can keep control before treating this as a meaningful change in the energy trend.

The broader risk has not changed. Russian attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure continue, Saudi energy assets remain vulnerable, and major Middle East shipping routes remain fragile heading into winter.

So the current pullback in oil is worth watching, but it is not enough on its own to say that energy pressure is starting to disappear.

Treasury Yields Are Falling, but Credit Still Matters

US Treasury yields have pulled back from their recent highs.

Normally, falling yields would be a positive sign for equities because lower rates reduce pressure on valuations and can improve liquidity.

But the reason behind the move matters.

If investors are buying Treasuries because they are becoming more defensive, lower yields do not automatically mean that liquidity is moving back into equities.

This is why HYG and the HYG/IEF relationship remain important.

If Treasury bonds continue to outperform high yield credit and HYG/IEF remains weak, the decline in yields should be viewed more carefully. It could be showing rising credit risk rather than a clean Risk On rotation.

For a stronger bullish setup, I want to see falling yields together with improving credit conditions.

Japan Is Still Part of the Liquidity Story

Japan remains another important part of the global liquidity setup.

The BOJ is expected to remain on hold this week, but another rate hike later in the year remains possible.

This matters because ultracheap Japanese funding has supported global markets for years through the carry trade.

As Japanese rates move higher, that source of cheap liquidity becomes less attractive.

A gradual tightening process does not automatically create a market crash, but it removes one of the long term liquidity supports that investors became used to.

For now, Japan remains another background risk rather than the main market driver.

The Dollar and Fed Policy Could Change the Market Tone

DXY has softened together with oil and Treasury yields.

That is helping risk assets in the short term.

A weaker Dollar reduces some pressure on global liquidity and also helps large US companies with international earnings.

However, the Dollar can turn quickly if the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected or inflation pressure returns.

The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged this week.

Because of that, the rate decision itself may not be the main event.

Warsh’s comments will matter much more.

If the Fed keeps the door open for another rate hike before year-end, Treasury yields and DXY could quickly move higher again.

If Warsh sounds more patient, the market could receive another short-term bullish catalyst.

Big Tech Earnings Are the Other Major Catalyst

The Fed is not the only major event this week.

Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are reporting after AI related stocks recently came under pressure.

The market is starting to ask a more difficult question about AI.

Investors are no longer only looking at revenue growth. They are also questioning how much companies need to spend on infrastructure and whether future profits can justify those investments.

That makes these earnings especially important for Nasdaq.

Strong guidance could quickly improve sentiment around technology and support a recovery.

Weak guidance or concerns about AI spending could create another wave of selling in the sector.

This is one of the biggest reasons I expect volatility to remain elevated this week.

The Bottom Line

The macro picture looks slightly better on the surface, but the improvement is not confirmed yet.

Treasury yields have pulled back and DXY has softened. Oil is also trading lower before the US open, but that move is still very early and could reverse once the cash session begins.

More importantly, credit markets are still not giving us the same clean Risk On signal.

If Treasuries continue outperforming high yield bonds and HYG/IEF remains weak, falling yields should be treated as defensive positioning rather than a clear liquidity expansion.

For now, I would describe US market sentiment as neutral to slightly Risk Off.

The market can still bounce hard from these levels, especially with sentiment already very depressed.

But the Fed, Big Tech earnings, credit conditions, oil and geopolitical risk can still change the direction very quickly.

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Market Fear & Greed

Market sentiment is currently at 22, which puts the market deep in Fear and very close to Extreme Fear.

Last week, the reading was 27.

The market is clearly nervous and prepared for another downside move.

However, this is also exactly where strong bullish bounces can begin.

When sentiment reaches Fear or Extreme Fear, positioning can become too defensive. A small positive catalyst can then create a much stronger recovery than expected.

The opposite is also true.

If bad news continues while sentiment is already weak, the selloff can accelerate very quickly.

Risk Index

What is the Risk Index Oscillator?

This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.

Current readings:

Long Term: Risk On

Mid Term: Slightly Risk Off

Short Term: Risk Off

The Risk Index has now started to change more clearly.

The long term structure remains Risk On, but both the short and mid term readings have weakened.

Short term conditions are now Risk Off, while the mid term structure has started moving slightly bearish as well.

This is important because last week the weakness was mainly short term.

Now we are starting to see that pressure spread into a longer timeframe.

That does not mean the long term bullish market is finished.

But it does mean that short term downside risk is becoming more serious and that deeper pullbacks should not be ignored.

For now, I am treating the market as a bearish short term environment inside a still bullish longterm structure.

Premium Section

The sections above outline the macro environment and the sentiment backdrop currently shaping market behavior.

Below the paywall, I walk through the positioning data, options sentiment, key liquidity levels, and the exact ES, NQ, SPY and QQQ zones I am watching this week. This includes the levels where I expect potential bounces, breakdowns, or volatility expansions to develop.

If you want to see the full positioning analysis and the technical execution framework for the week ahead, the remainder of this report is available to premium members.

Options Sentiment

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7 closed trades, 4 winners and 3 losses — while NQ and QQQ delivered the biggest index moves and our equity/options portfolio stayed strong through a difficult market.

WEEK 42 SCOREBOARD

• Total Trades Closed: 7

• Winning Trades: 4

• Losing Trades: 3

• Win Rate: 57.1%

• Index Options: 1 Trade | 1 Win

• Futures Desk: 3 Trades | 1 NQ Win, 2 ES Losses

• Equity / Options: 3 Realized Outcomes | 2 Wins, 1 Loss

• XOM Calls: $6.30 → $19.90 | +215.9%

• CRWD Calls Partial: $24.50 → $32.00 | +30.6%

• CRWD Calls at Friday Close: $35.00 | +42.9% from entry

• COST Calls at Friday Close: $45.00 → $53.30 | +18.4%

• PLTR Puts: $20.20 → $16.80 | -16.8%

• Precious Metals: 0 Trades

• Forex: 0 Trades

• Hedge Trades: 0

Still running: XOM, COST and CRWD.

This was not an easy week for the market, especially in technology. But that is exactly where portfolio construction and exposure management matter. We did not need every trade to work. We needed the winners to matter more than the losses.

SPY | Good Reaction, No Trade

SPY did not trigger any of our planned scenarios during the week. Demand 2 eventually produced a strong bounce, but the setup never gave us the 1-hour retest confirmation required by the plan.

The level worked, but the trade did not trigger. We stayed out.

SPY result: 0 trades.

A strong reaction after the fact does not change the rules. If the confirmation is missing, there is no entry.

QQQ | Short Scenario 1 Delivered the Full Move

QQQ stayed away from our scenarios until Wednesday, when price finally reached the Flip Area and activated Short Scenario 1.

This time, the full setup was there and we entered.

QQQ sold off roughly 26.5 points from the area, a move of approximately 3.65%, and reached every planned target.

QQQ result: 1 trade, 1 win, full profit.

This was one of the cleanest index setups of the week.

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NQ | 1,035 Points From a Pre Planned Scenario

NQ gave us the strongest index trade of Week 42.

On Wednesday, price reached the Flip Area and activated Short Scenario 1. The setup had already been mapped before price arrived, and once confirmation came, we entered.

The move that followed was massive.

NQ dropped approximately 1,035 points, around 3.45%, and reached every planned target.

NQ result: 1 trade, 1 win, full profit.

No other pre planned NQ scenario triggered during the week, so there was no reason to keep trading it after the move.

One setup was enough.

ES | Two Setups, Two Losses

The first ES trade came from the Flip Area on Wednesday. Short Scenario 1 triggered correctly, but the move failed and the position reached its planned stop.

Later in the week, price reached Demand 1 and gave us another valid setup on Thursday.

That long also failed to produce meaningful upside and eventually stopped on Friday.

ES result: 2 trades, 2 losses.

There is nothing complicated to add. Both setups met the rules, both were taken, and both lost. The important part is that neither loss was allowed to grow beyond the original risk plan.

Equity & Options Desk | Managing the Portfolio While the Market Sold Off

The Equity Desk was probably the most important part of this week.

Technology came under heavy pressure, but our portfolio was not built around one directional bet. We were actively managing exposure across energy, defensive consumer names, technology and tactical downside positions.

That allowed us to stay involved without allowing the broad market selloff to dictate the result of the entire portfolio.

This is what exposure management is supposed to do.

$XOM Calls | Energy Hedge Continues to Pay (+215.9%)

XOM has remained one of our strongest positions and an important part of our energy exposure.

Our Calls were originally entered at $6.30 per contract.

By Friday’s close, those same contracts were trading around $19.90.

$6.30 → $19.90 = +215.9%

We have already taken profits during the move and the remaining position is still running.

While other parts of the market were under pressure, energy continued doing exactly what we wanted it to do inside the portfolio.

$CRWD Calls | Buying Strength Into Market Weakness (+%42)

CRWD was one of the most important trades of the week.

While technology was being sold aggressively, I highlighted CRWD as one of the names I expected to move first once the selling pressure started to stabilize.

We entered Calls around $24.50 per contract.

That thesis played out quickly.

CRWD rallied more than 8% on Friday and became one of the strongest technology names during the recovery.

We took a 25% partial at $32.00 per contract.

$24.50 → $32.00 = +30.6% realized on the partial.

By Friday’s close, the contracts were trading around $35.00, putting the remaining position approximately +42.9% above our original entry.

The rest remains open.

This is exactly why we follow relative strength. The market can be weak while individual names are quietly telling you where the money is likely to move next.

$ COST Calls | Defensive Strength Showing Up (+%18)

COST was added as part of our defensive consumer exposure while capital continued rotating away from weaker high beta areas.

Our Calls were entered around $45.00 per contract.

By Friday’s close, the contracts were trading around $53.30.

$45.00 → $53.30 = +18.4%

No partial has been taken yet. The position remains open and in profit.

$PLTR Puts| Loss Cut Early (-%16)

PLTR was the equity/options trade that did not work.

We entered the Puts at $20.20 per contract and exited at $16.80.

Realized return: -16.8%.

We cut the trade early rather than allowing the position to become a larger problem.

That loss ended up being small compared with the gains generated elsewhere in the portfolio.

That is the point.

Portfolio management is not about making every position green. It is about controlling the downside while allowing the stronger positions to pay for the mistakes and still leave the portfolio ahead.

Following the Money Rotation

This week showed why we do not treat the market as one single trade.

Tech was selling off, but energy remained strong. Defensive consumer names held up better. CRWD showed relative strength before the larger recovery developed.

We adjusted exposure around that rotation instead of simply sitting long or short the entire market.

XOM acted as a strong energy hedge. COST gave us defensive exposure. CRWD gave us a high quality technology long when the broader sector was weak. PLTR failed, so we cut it.

Different sectors. Different setups. One portfolio.

That is advanced portfolio and exposure management, and it is a major part of how we trade at UA CAPITAL.

Premium | These Setups Are Shared Before the Move

The scenarios reviewed in these recaps are not created after the charts move.

Premium members receive our SPY and QQQ scenarios, ES and NQ execution levels, equity/options setups, daily market updates and real-time position-management notes as the week develops.

For the options positions we are personally trading, we also share the exact contracts we are using, along with our own entry, partial-profit, breakeven and exit updates. These are provided as part of our research and live execution log rather than personalized financial advice.

This week Premium members followed the QQQ and NQ winners, the ES losses, the CRWD long before Friday’s expansion, COST, PLTR management and the continued XOM position.

The value is not simply receiving a ticker.

It is seeing how the position fits inside the portfolio, how much exposure we are carrying, when profits are reduced, and when a trade needs to be cut.

That is the execution side of UA CAPITAL.

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New Weekly Stocks & Options Outlook on YouTube

The new UA CAPITAL Weekly Stocks & Options Outlook is also live on YouTube.

This week we break down SPY and QQQ, then move into a full equity/options watchlist:

$AMZN — bullish options setup around an important demand area.

$SPCX — SpaceX related setup following the strong earnings report.

$MRNA — healthcare setup as capital continues rotating between sectors.

$CRWD — one of the strongest technology names on our radar and already an active Call position in our portfolio.

$JPM — financial sector relative strength.

$COST — defensive consumer strength and another active Call position.

$WMT — another defensive setup as investors continue looking outside high-beta technology.

For stock and options traders, looking beneath SPY and QQQ matters. The index tells us what the market is doing, but individual sectors and stocks often tell us where the money is moving next.

YouTube covers the larger weekly picture and the setups on our radar.

Premium Substack goes deeper into the actual execution scenarios, contracts and real-time position management.

[Watch the Latest UA Capital Weekly Stocks & Options Outlook on YouTube]

Final Thoughts

Week 42 was a good example of why win rate alone never tells the full story.

We finished 4–3 on closed trades, a 57.1% win rate.

ES gave us two losses. PLTR added another.

But QQQ delivered a full target winner, NQ produced a 1,035-point move, and the Equity Desk remained strong through XOM, COST and CRWD.

XOM reached +215.9% from our original contract entry. CRWD delivered a +30.6% realized partial while the remaining contracts finished Friday around +42.9%. COST remained open around +18.4%.

The market was difficult.

The portfolio did not need to be.

Control the losses, follow the rotation, and let the strongest positions work.

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Current Market Outlook

The market environment changed quickly overnight.

Yesterday, we were positioning for a possible recovery, particularly in technology, after seeing signs that the market could stabilize.

That view was starting to work.

Then President Trump said the U.S. was not negotiating with Iran and that “something” could happen “fair soon.”

Risk assets immediately sold off.

Nasdaq futures dropped as much as roughly 1.5% in premarket trading, with technology taking most of the pressure.

This is exactly the type of market we have been preparing for.

The structure is not clean enough to simply stay aggressively bullish or bearish. Rotation between sectors is becoming more important, geopolitical headlines can change sentiment within minutes, and portfolio construction matters much more than chasing individual trades.

That is why our current positioning is deliberately spread across different parts of the market.

We are holding strength in defensive consumer stocks and energy, while also keeping exposure to one of the stronger technology names in case the market produces a sharp rebound.

At the same time, our index shorts gave us protection when the market suddenly turned risk off.

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Credit Is Now Sending a Clear Risk Off Signal

The most important signal this morning is coming from credit.

We are seeing an aggressive risk off move, with capital moving away from riskier corporate assets and into U.S. government bonds.

That is a meaningful warning.

It suggests that investors are becoming much less comfortable with the bullish market structure we were seeing earlier in the week.

This does not automatically mean the market has to collapse from here, but it does tell us that this is not an environment where I want to carry unnecessary risk.

Until credit begins to stabilize, I will remain cautious with aggressive equity exposure.

That is also why our sector positioning matters right now.

Our Current Equity Positioning

Despite the selloff, both $COST and $CRWD are currently profitable.

That is exactly what we want to see from the names we selected.

$COST has benefited from the defensive consumer rotation.

In a risk off environment, investors often move away from higher-beta areas of the market and into businesses with more defensive characteristics.

$COST fits that environment well, and the position has continued to perform even while the overall market has become more unstable.

We also continue to hold $XOM.

Energy remains another important part of our positioning, particularly while geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

The position is profitable, and for now we are continuing to carry it.

So from a portfolio perspective, $XOM and $COST give us exposure to two areas that can remain relatively strong even when the rest of the market becomes defensive.

$CRWD plays a different role.

Technology has been one of the weakest parts of the market this morning, yet $CRWD is still holding in profit.

That relative strength is exactly why we chose it.

If technology continues selling off, our overall portfolio is not dependent on $CRWD because we already have exposure to defensive consumer and energy.

But if the market suddenly reverses and we get a strong technology bounce, we are already positioned in one of the stronger names inside the sector.

That gives us a much better structure than simply buying the Nasdaq and hoping the market recovers.

We are holding defensive strength through $COST, geopolitical and energy exposure through $XOM, and one of the stronger technology names through $CRWD.

This is the type of positioning I want in a market where direction can change quickly.

Indices | Short Scenario 1 Delivered

The index side worked very well as protection against this morning’s selloff.

Nasdaq Short Scenario 1 (Flip Level Rejection) triggered almost exactly from the $30030 level published in the Weekly Market Outlook.

From that area, NQ dropped roughly 500 points, close to a 2% move.

The same scenario also worked through QQQ, which fell roughly 12.5 points, around 1.75%, during the premarket move.

That is a significant move from a level that was already mapped before the selloff started.

On NQ, I have already taken profit around $29600 as planned.

Roughly 80% of the position has been closed, and the stop on the remaining position has been moved to breakeven.

The final target remains around $29350, which was also part of the original Weekly Market Outlook plan.

If price reaches that area, I plan to close the remainder.

Not every index scenario worked.

The SPY and ES Flip Level Breakout setups (Long Scenario 1) failed after the geopolitical headline accelerated the selloff.

Those positions were designed around a possible continuation of the recovery and a potential rotation into large cap stocks.

That rotation did not develop.

However, the $QQQ short should largely offset the $SPY loss when both positions are closed around the cash open.

This is why I do not look at each position in isolation.

The goal is to manage the portfolio as one structure.

We had exposure to a possible recovery, protection against a technology selloff, defensive exposure through $COST, energy exposure through $XOM, and relative strength tech exposure through $CRWD.

When the market suddenly turned risk-off, the index hedge did its job.

What’s Next?

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Hot Inflation, Tech Weakness and a Market Trying to Find Support

US equities are starting the week under pressure after a difficult combination of hot inflation data, higher oil prices and renewed weakness in technology stocks. Treasury yields are finally pulling back, which gives the market some liquidity relief, but the reason behind that move still shows defensive positioning underneath the surface.

At the same time, geopolitical risk remains high. The US-Iran conflict is unresolved, Hormuz remains unstable, and Houthi attacks are creating another pressure point around Saudi Arabia and Bab el-Mandeb. The market can still bounce from these levels, but this is no longer a clean Risk On environment.

What’s Inside This Weekly Premium Market Outlook

1. Why the US-Iran conflict and Houthi expansion remain the main geopolitical risks for energy and global markets.

2. How hot CPI and PPI data changed the short term market structure and brought Fed tightening back into the discussion.

3. Why falling Treasury yields are helping equities, but are not yet a clean bullish signal.

4. What the Fear & Greed Index and UA CAPITAL Risk Index are showing after last week’s selloff.

5. How the shift in options sentiment could create an interesting positioning setup this week.

6. The exact SPY, ES, QQQ and NQ levels I am watching for bullish recoveries, bearish rejections and deeper pullbacks.

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Market Macro Sentiment

US-Iran Tensions Remain the Main Geopolitical Risk

The US-Iran conflict remains unresolved, but Washington has said it does not plan to launch a new attack before the November 3 midterms.

That reduces the immediate military risk, but it does not remove it.

Iran continues to put pressure on shipping around Hormuz, while its offer to reopen the strait under certain conditions remains on the table.

Recent tanker incidents and naval mines pushed oil higher again last week, keeping the geopolitical risk premium alive.

For markets, the important point is that the conflict may remain contained before the midterms, but the risk can quickly return after the election.

That keeps energy markets sensitive to every new headline.

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Houthi Attacks Are Expanding the Regional Energy Risk

The Houthis are also increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia.

Recent attacks have included Riyadh airport and Saudi Aramco infrastructure.

Egypt has now said it is ready to support Saudi Arabia militarily if needed, which shows that the Yemen conflict is slowly becoming a wider regional issue.

Bab el-Mandeb is the key point here.

If the strait comes under heavy pressure while Hormuz remains unstable, global oil and shipping flows would face another major problem.

That would bring energy inflation back into focus very quickly.

For now, this remains one of the main geopolitical risks I am watching.

Energy Pressure Is Still High, but Some Relief Is Appearing

Oil reached its highest level in months last week as Middle East risks and shipping disruptions came back into focus.

Today, crude is pulling back after the US eased some sanctions on Russia, which could allow more Russian fuel exports into the global market.

That gives energy markets some shortterm relief.

However, I would not call the problem solved.

Hormuz remains unstable, Saudi infrastructure remains exposed, and Russian energy assets are still vulnerable.

So the current oil pullback is positive for equities, but the broader supply risk remains high.

Hot Inflation Keeps the Fed Under Pressure

Last week’s CPI and PPI data showed that inflation pressure is becoming harder to ignore.

Energy costs were a major part of the move, but price pressure is also spreading into other parts of the economy.

That puts an October Fed hike back into the discussion.

The market still leans toward no change, but the Fed now has less room to turn dovish if energy prices stay elevated.

This matters because higher inflation creates two problems for equities at the same time.

It keeps Treasury yields under pressure and makes it harder for the Fed to support the market through easier policy.

The next move in inflation expectations will therefore remain important even if the scheduled macro calendar is lighter this week.

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Treasury Yields Are Finally Giving Markets Some Relief

The US 10-year yield has pulled back toward the 5% area after trading around 5.3%.

That is positive for equities.

Lower yields reduce pressure on valuations and give risk assets more room to recover.

But the reason behind the move matters.

Part of the decline is coming from investors moving into Treasuries after last week’s technology selloff.

So this is not yet a clean Risk On move.

Lower yields are helping the market, but the flow behind the move still shows some defensive behavior.

The ideal bullish setup would be yields continuing lower while equities recover at the same time.

That would give us much stronger confirmation that liquidity is moving back into risk assets.

AI and Tech Have Become a New Short Term Risk

Technology has now become one of the main short term risks for the broader market.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq had their worst week since late June as investors started questioning the huge cost of AI infrastructure and whether future profits can justify current spending.

Semiconductor stocks were hit especially hard.

Expensive financing also adds another problem because high yields make large AI investments more costly.

This week’s major technology earnings will therefore be important.

If earnings support the AI growth story, last week’s move may remain a correction.

If investors continue questioning spending and profitability, the weakness could turn into a larger sector rotation.

The Bottom Line

The macro picture remains mixed.

Falling oil and Treasury yields are giving equities some shortterm relief, but inflation is still hot, the Fed remains under pressure, the dollar is strong and geopolitical risk has not disappeared.

The biggest shortterm problem is technology.

Tech has carried a large part of the market higher, so continued weakness in semiconductors and AI related names can create pressure on the major indices even if other sectors remain stable.

For now, I would describe the environment as neutral to slightly Risk Off.

The market can bounce if yields and oil continue cooling, but the structure underneath remains fragile, especially for high valuation technology stocks.

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Market Fear & Greed

Market sentiment is currently at 27, which puts the market deep in Fear and very close to Extreme Fear.

Last week, the reading was 45.

That is a major shift in a very short period.

The market is clearly nervous and positioning is much more defensive.

However, this is where sentiment becomes interesting.

Some of the strongest bullish bounces can start from Fear and Extreme Fear because positioning becomes very defensive and expectations become too negative.

At the same time, some of the hardest selloffs also happen from these levels when fear continues accelerating.

So I do not treat 27 as an automatic buy signal.

It tells me the market is stretched emotionally and that both upside squeezes and downside flushes can become much more aggressive.

Price confirmation remains the key.

Risk Index

What is the Risk Index Oscillator?

This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and longterm positioning decisions.

Current readings:

Long Term: Risk On

Mid Term: Risk On

Short Term: Risk Off

Last week, we discussed that the short term structure was starting to move toward the bearish side.

That move has now confirmed.

The Risk Index is showing a much stronger bearish signal on the short term timeframe.

This does not change the long term and mid term structure yet.

Both remain Risk On.

But the short term signal tells us that the market is currently trading against the larger bullish structure.

That usually means more volatility, more difficult entries and a higher chance of deeper pullbacks before the broader trend can stabilize again.

Premium Section

The sections above outline the macro environment and the sentiment backdrop currently shaping market behavior.

Below the paywall, I walk through the positioning data, options sentiment, key liquidity levels, and the exact ES, NQ, SPY and QQQ zones I am watching this week. This includes the levels where I expect potential bounces, breakdowns, or volatility expansions to develop.

If you want to see the full positioning analysis and the technical execution framework for the week ahead, the remainder of this report is available to premium members.

Options Sentiment

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A quiet week on the index side, but still a green one. We closed three new trades with two winners and one loss, while positions carried from last week continued paying us through V and XOM.

WEEK 41 SCOREBOARD

• Total Trades Closed: 3

• Winning Trades: 2

• Losing Trades: 1

• Win Rate: 66.7%

• Index Options: 1 Trade | 1 Win

• Futures Desk: 2 Trades | 1 NQ Win, 1 ES Loss

• V Final Runner: $7.60 → $27.10 | +256.6%

• XOM Second Partial: $6.30 → $11.40 | +81.0%

• CRDO Position Closed at a Loss (Invalidation Hit)

• New Equity Trades: 0

• Precious Metals: 0

• Forex: 0

• Hedge Trades: 1 (XOM)

The main theme this week was patience. Several of our levels reacted almost perfectly, but we did not get the confirmation required by the system. That kept us out of unnecessary trades and left us with only three valid entries across the indices.

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SPY | Great Level, No Entry

SPY did not trigger any of our planned scenarios during most of the week. On Thursday, price finally reached Demand 3 around 766 and produced an almost perfect bounce from the level.

The level worked, but the trade never triggered. Long Scenario 3 required the 1 hour bullish retest confirmation after the reaction, and we never got it. Because of that, we stayed out.

SPY finished the week with zero trades. This is an important distinction, a level can work perfectly without giving us a valid entry.

QQQ | Demand 3 Delivered

QQQ also stayed away from our setups until Thursday. Price finally reached Demand 3 around 723.50 and this time Long Scenario 3 gave us the confirmation we needed.

We entered according to plan and QQQ moved roughly 7 points, around 1%, from the demand area. We secured partial profit during the expansion, then the remaining position came back and stopped around breakeven.

QQQ finished with one trade and one win. It was not a huge winner, but the position was managed exactly as planned and finished green.

ES | One Valid Trade, One Loss

ES reached Demand 3 around 7,760 on Thursday and bounced strongly, but just like SPY, it never gave us the required 1 hour retest confirmation. No confirmation meant no entry.

Friday morning was different. Long Scenario 2 completed its trigger and we entered. The setup failed to continue and eventually reached the planned stop.

ES finished with one trade and one loss. No need to rewrite it afterwards. The setup was valid, we took it, and it lost.

NQ | The Best Index Trade of the Week

NQ did not give us anything until Thursday’s NY AM session. Price finally reached Demand 3 around 29,990 and Long Scenario 3 triggered.

We entered and managed the position according to plan. Price rallied exactly 250 points (+0.8%) from our predefined level. Partial profits were taken around 30,150 and 30,326. Half of the remaining position was later closed, while the final portion eventually stopped around breakeven.

NQ finished with one trade and one win. This was the cleanest index setup of the week.

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Equity & Options Desk | Profit Taking While Tech Sold Off

We opened no new equity positions this week, but two trades from the previous week continued to pay us. While technology stocks were under heavy pressure, our exposure in financials and energy remained strong.

Financial Sector: $V Calls (Visa)

V was the standout. The calls were originally opened at $7.60 per contract, and after taking earlier partials, we kept a final runner for the larger move.

That runner was finally closed at $27.10 per contract.

$7.60 → $27.10 = +256.6%

The V position is now fully closed. Keeping a smaller runner after taking earlier profits allowed us to capture the final expansion without exposing the full original position.

Energy / Crude Oil Sector: $XOM Calls (ExxonMobil)

XOM continued working as well. The calls were originally entered at $6.30 per contract.

This week we took our second partial at $11.40 per contract.

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Falling Yields, Midterm Positioning & Market Still Fighting Heavy Macro Risk

The market is entering another important week with a clear conflict between price action and macro conditions. Equities remain close to all time highs, but the background is still difficult: the US-Iran conflict continues, energy supply remains fragile, DXY is strong, and global liquidity is still under pressure. At the same time, US Treasury yields are starting to show signs of a local top, which could give risk assets the liquidity relief they need for another push higher.

This week’s Premium Market Outlook focuses on:

1. Why the US-Iran conflict may remain contained before the midterms, but still creates a major postelection risk.

2. How Bab el-Mandeb, low global oil inventories and Europe’s diesel problem keep energy risk elevated.

3. Why a possible local top in US yields could become the main bullish catalyst for equities.

4. What Fear & Greed and the UA CAPITAL Risk Index are showing as the market stays near its highs.

5. How CPI, PPI, Fed expectations and October OPEX could shape this week’s price action.

6. The exact SPY, ES, QQQ and NQ demand zones I am watching for confirmed long setups.

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Market Macro Sentiment

US-Iran Tensions and the Delayed War Risk

The US-Iran conflict remains one of the biggest macro risks in the market. The Strait of Hormuz is still heavily disrupted, commercial shipping remains under pressure, and the diplomatic path has not produced a real solution.

The important part for markets is timing. According to the current framework, Washington is trying to avoid a major military escalation before the US midterms. A larger conflict before the election could create another energy shock, lift inflation and damage consumer confidence at the worst possible time politically.

That does not mean the risk is gone. It means the risk may simply be delayed.

My main concern remains the period after the midterms. If military operations expand after the election, markets could suddenly be forced to price a much larger energy and geopolitical shock.

For now, this creates an unusual environment. The market can continue trading higher while investors believe the largest military escalation is being postponed, but the risk remains sitting in the background.

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Bab el-Mandeb, Aramco and the Second Energy Pressure Point

The Red Sea remains another important part of the energy story.

The Houthis continue to expand around Bab el-Mandeb, while Saudi Arabia and Yemen are working together to slow that advance. A larger Saudi led operation after the midterms is also part of the current geopolitical scenario.

This matters because Hormuz is already under pressure.

If Bab el-Mandeb also becomes heavily disrupted, the global oil supply chain would face two major problems at the same time.

Saudi Aramco’s warning makes this situation more important. Global oil inventories are already very low, and rebuilding those buffers could take years.

That means the market has less room to absorb another major supply shock.

The current setup is not about the world suddenly running out of oil. It is about having much less protection if another disruption happens.

That makes oil prices more sensitive to geopolitical headlines and keeps inflation risk alive.

Europe’s Diesel Problem Is Still Not Solved

Europe remains under pressure from the energy side as well.

Ukraine continues to target Russian refining infrastructure, which is keeping pressure on diesel and refined product supply. At the same time, the political relationship between Washington, Moscow and Kyiv remains unstable.

Even with attempts to reduce the pressure through diplomacy and energy agreements, the main problem has not disappeared.

European diesel supply remains tight, Russian refining capacity is still under pressure, and energy costs continue to move higher.

For markets, this matters because higher diesel prices quickly move through transportation, production and consumer costs.

Europe is also entering a more difficult seasonal period. If the energy problem continues into winter, inflation pressure could remain much more sticky than central banks would like.

Treasury Yields May Finally Be Giving the Market Some Relief

The bond market could become the biggest bullish catalyst this week.

US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields have been one of the strongest macro headwinds for equities. But after reaching extremely elevated levels, both are now showing signs of exhaustion and a possible local top.

This is exactly the type of move equities need.

If yields start pulling back, financial conditions become less restrictive. Bonds become slightly less attractive compared with equities, financing pressure eases, and liquidity can rotate back into risk assets.

This is especially important because major US indices are already trading close to all time highs.

A meaningful decline in yields could provide the fresh liquidity needed for another upside leg.

This is therefore one of the main signals I am watching this week.

If US10Y confirms the local top and continues lower, the bullish equity structure becomes much easier to support. If yields suddenly reverse and move higher again, that bullish setup becomes much weaker.

DXY Remains the Main Risk Off Warning

The positive development in yields does not remove all macro pressure.

DXY remains strong and continues to benefit from global geopolitical uncertainty.

The dollar is still trading near its strongest levels of the last 18 months, and a sustained move above 103 would be an important warning for risk assets.

A strong dollar tightens global financial conditions.

It can reduce liquidity outside the US, pressure emerging markets and create another headwind for large US companies with international revenue.

So even if yields start moving lower, I do not want to see DXY accelerating higher at the same time.

The ideal bullish setup would be falling yields without a major upside breakout in the dollar.

If DXY breaks above 103 and holds there, the risk off pressure can quickly return.

CPI and PPI Could Change the Fed Outlook

This week’s inflation data will be important.

CPI is scheduled for Wednesday, followed by PPI on Thursday.

Markets are currently pricing a high probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the October meeting.

That gives equities some support.

However, stronger than expected inflation could quickly change that pricing. If CPI or PPI comes in hot, Treasury yields could move higher again and the market could start pricing a more hawkish Fed.

Softer inflation would support the opposite scenario.

It would help the current relief in yields, keep rate hike expectations low and give equities more room to continue higher.

This makes Wednesday and Thursday the most important macro days of the week.

Monthly OPEX Could Slow the Market Later in the Week

Friday is October monthly options expiration.

That can change the character of price action later in the week.

After CPI and PPI volatility, dealer positioning can become more important as we approach expiration.

That can create slower and more range-bound trading on Thursday and Friday, especially if the inflation data does not create a major surprise.

For this reason, I would not automatically expect a clean directional move into the end of the week.

OPEX positioning can easily pull price toward large gamma areas and create more difficult intraday conditions.

The Bottom Line

The macro environment remains difficult, but there are now some developments that could support equities into the midterms.

The biggest positive is the possibility that US Treasury yields are forming a local top.

If that move confirms, liquidity conditions can improve at exactly the time when equities are already trading close to their highs.

The main risks remain clear.

The US-Iran conflict is not solved. Bab el-Mandeb remains under pressure. Energy inventories remain low. Europe still has a diesel problem. DXY remains strong.

So this is still not a clean Risk On environment.

My current view is that equities can continue higher into the midterms, but the bullish structure needs help from yields and inflation data.

That is why I will continue increasing call side exposure selectively, but I do not want to chase price without confirmation.

Market Fear & Greed

Market sentiment is currently at 45, still technically inside the Fear phase.

Last week, the reading was 38.

That improvement is important.

Sentiment is slowly moving closer to Neutral while the market remains close to all time highs. This can actually be constructive because there is still a level of disbelief in the rally.

Neutral is not a bad environment for a bullish market.

It means there is still room for confidence to improve before sentiment becomes crowded.

If the index continues moving from Fear into Neutral and eventually Greed while price remains strong, that would be a healthier confirmation of the bullish trend.

For now, sentiment is improving, but the market is still not fully confident in the move.

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Risk Index

What is the Risk Index Oscillator?

This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.

Current readings:

Long Term: Risk On

Mid Term: Risk On

Short Term: Risk On | Reducing

All three timeframes remain Risk On, but the short term reading continues to weaken.

This does not mean the market is bearish yet.

It means the strength behind the short term Risk On structure is fading.

If this decline continues, the Risk Index could eventually move into the bearish side.

That is why I do not want to ignore the warning simply because equities are still near their highs.

For now, the bigger trend remains supportive, but short term risk is increasing.

The best bullish scenario would be falling Treasury yields, softer inflation data and the short term Risk Index stabilizing before it turns bearish.

Premium Section

The sections above outline the macro environment and the sentiment backdrop currently shaping market behavior.

Below the paywall, I walk through the positioning data, options sentiment, key liquidity levels, and the exact ES, NQ, SPY and QQQ zones I am watching this week. This includes the levels where I expect potential bounces, breakdowns, or volatility expansions to develop.

If you want to see the full positioning analysis and the technical execution framework for the week ahead, the remainder of this report is available to premium members.

Options Sentiment

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• Total Index Trades: 6

• Winning Trades: 4

• Losing Trades: 2

• Win Rate: 66.7%

• ES: 1 Win / 1 Loss

• SPY: 1 Win / 1 Loss

• NQ: 2 Wins / 0 Losses

• QQQ: No Valid Trade

• Largest Move: NQ approximately +540 points / +1.75%

Result: Four winning index setups, two stopped setups, and no valid QQQ entry.

Equities / Options Desk

• Positions Opened: 4

• Profit Taken: V, XOM

• Stopped / Closed: ASML

• Still Open Near Entry: CRDO

• Best Partial Return: V +106.7%

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ES | One Clean Win, One Stop

ES started the week around the 7,757–7,777 Flip Zone.

Monday gave us the first clean setup.

Price defended the Flip Zone, confirmed the long and then expanded through the planned targets.

7,785
7,795
7,805
7,815

All of them were reached.

That was the clean ES winner for the week.

By Wednesday, the structure had changed.

The old 7,815–7,850 supply area had already been broken, so we started treating it as a potential demand zone.

But again, the breakout itself was not the entry.

We waited for price to come back into the broken area and give us the 1-hour confirmation we require.

That happened and the long was taken.

This time, the setup did not hold.

On Thursday, ES closed a 4-hour candle back below the Supply/Demand zone.

That triggered the invalidation.

Trade closed at a loss.

ES finished the week with:

1 Win
1 Loss

This is exactly why confirmation and invalidation both matter.

The first setup expanded cleanly.

The second one failed.

We took both exactly according to the plan.

SPY | Full TP Monday, Stop on the Midweek Retest

SPY gave us a very clean opportunity on Monday.

The main area was around 775.

Price broke through the Supply/Demand zone, came back into the area and gave the confirmation we needed near the close.

That triggered the long.

From there, SPY continued higher and completed the full target sequence.

777
780
782

Half TP.

That was the first SPY trade of the week.

Later in the week, the same 772–775 area became important again.

Because price had already broken above it, we were now watching it as potential demand.

The setup again required the same process:

breakout first, retest second, then 1-hour confirmation.

The long triggered.

But this time, buyers could not keep control.

On Thursday, SPY gave the 4-hour close below the zone that invalidated the setup.

That trade was stopped.

SPY finished:

1 Win
1 Loss

The same level produced two completely different outcomes at different points in the week.

That is part of the process.

NQ | Two Entries, Two Wins

NQ was the strongest index setup of the week.

The first trade came from the Upper Flip area on Monday.

Price gave the confirmation we were waiting for and the long triggered.

From there, NQ expanded roughly 540 points at maximum.

That was around a 1.75% move.

The planned targets were reached and the trade finished as a full winner.

By Wednesday, NQ had already made a large move and the structure had shifted higher.

The next area we were watching was the Supply 2 / Demand zone.

Again, we were not buying the first touch.

The setup required price to interact with the area and then give us confirmation.

That happened.

The second long also reached target.

So NQ gave us two separate entries during the week.

Both worked.

NQ finished:

2 Trades
2 Wins
0 Losses

This was the strongest index performance of Week 40.

QQQ | No Valid Entry

QQQ moved well during the week, but movement alone does not mean we had a trade.

The levels were there.

The breakout happened.

But under our execution rules, that is not enough.

We need:

breakout
retest of the broken area
1-hour confirmation close
then entry

That full sequence never gave us a valid setup.

So QQQ is simple this week:

No trade.

And that is just as important to show as the winners.

Not every market has to give us an entry.

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Equities / Options Desk

This week was not only about the index scenarios.

We also opened four separate equity positions:

• ASML

• V

• XOM

• CRDO

And the results were mixed.

That is worth showing exactly as it happened.

ASML | Setup Invalidated

ASML was opened around the 1,850–1,860 region with the expectation of another expansion higher.

That move never developed.

More importantly, price eventually moved through the level we had defined as invalidation.

We closed the position.

Simple as that.

There is no reason to keep defending an idea after the market has already told us the setup is wrong.

ASML was the losing position from this group.

The loss was accepted and we moved on.

V | Two Targets, More Than 100% on the Second Partial

V was opened around the $370 region.

The position was structured through:

V 375C OCT 30 EXP

Our first target was $376.50.

That level was reached.

We took the first round of partial profits.

The contract moved from approximately $7.60 to $10.40.

Reported return on that partial:

+36.8%

The stop on the remaining position was moved to breakeven.

Then the move continued.

V reached the second target around $384.50.

We took another round of profits.

The contract was sold around $15.50 compared with an entry around $7.50.

Reported return on that partial:

+106.7%

The remaining 25% stays open as a runner.

This was the strongest options result of the week.

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XOM | First Target Reached

XOM was opened around $164 as both a technical long and part of our energy exposure.

The first target was around $169.50.

Price reached it during the week.

We took 25% of the position off at $169.70.

The contract:

XOM 165C NOV 20 EXP

Entry: $6.30
Partial Exit: $9.10
Return: +44.4%

The remaining 75% stays open and continues to be managed under the original plan.

CRDO | Still Open

CRDO was opened around the $219–220 region.

Unlike V and XOM, price has not reached our first target yet.

It also has not invalidated the setup.

The position is still trading close to our original entry area.

So there is nothing to celebrate and nothing to close yet.

The trade remains open.

Targets remain:

245
262
280

Until price either confirms the expansion or breaks the setup, we simply manage it.

From Weekly Levels to Real-Time Execution

Week 40 is probably one of the clearest examples of why the Premium side goes beyond a Sunday market outlook.

The original breakout scenarios worked.

Then the structure changed.

By Wednesday, several old supply zones had become potential demand and the plan needed to be updated in real time.

At the same time, we were actively managing ASML, V, XOM and CRDO.

Premium members get:

• Daily pre market plans

• Real time Telegram alerts

• Intraday bias and level updates

• Live trade entries and position management

• Partial profit, breakeven and invalidation updates

• Separate SPY, QQQ, ES and NQ scenarios built specifically for Substack

The weekly analysis gives us the structure.

Premium Substack and Telegram cover what happens when that structure changes after the market opens.

[Upgrade to Premium and Join the UA Capital Telegram Desk]

New Weekly Market Outlook on YouTube

The next UA Capital Weekly Market Outlook will also be available on YouTube.

The video focuses on the higher timeframe visual structure across:

ES, SPY, NQ, QQQ, Gold, Silver, BTC and ETH.

We go through the main weekly decision areas and the larger structure before the new week begins.

The YouTube analysis and Substack analysis are not copies of each other.

YouTube is built around the higher timeframe weekly picture.

Substack uses separate scenarios and levels built for shorter term execution, then updates those plans during the week as conditions change.

Use YouTube for the weekly visual framework.

Use Substack Premium for the detailed execution plan and real time management.

[Watch and Subscribe to the UA Capital YouTube Channel]

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Share Market Context

The equity structure remains constructive, but the bond market is making this pullback more difficult than a normal technical retracement.

Market Sentiment

The market is sitting in a healthy spot right now.

Our Market Sentiment reading is around 47, which keeps us in the neutral zone. I actually like seeing sentiment here. We are not dealing with extreme optimism, but we are also not seeing the kind of fear that usually comes with a damaged market structure.

That leaves room for the market to keep moving higher without becoming too crowded on the bullish side.

Options positioning is also interesting.

Options Sentiment is still sitting in fear, with put positioning remaining relatively strong. In simple terms, a good part of the market is still positioned defensively and expecting downside.

That can become supportive if price starts moving higher again.

When too many traders are leaning into puts while the underlying market refuses to break down, that positioning can eventually work against them. As price pushes higher, hedges may need to be adjusted, bearish positions can get squeezed, and that can add extra momentum to the upside.

This is where the possibility of a gamma driven move becomes important.

It does not mean price has to squeeze higher immediately. But it tells us that positioning is still not overly bullish. There is still plenty of defensive exposure sitting on the other side of the market.

So from a sentiment perspective, I see two constructive factors right now:

• Market sentiment is neutral instead of overheated.

• Options sentiment is still fearful and put heavy.

That is generally a much healthier setup for further upside than a market where everyone is already bullish, fully positioned and chasing calls.

The technical pullback we are seeing does not automatically change that picture. If yields start calming down and our key demand areas begin to hold, the current positioning could actually help fuel the next upside move rather than stop it.

For now, sentiment is not the problem.

The main pressure is still coming from yields.

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Today’s Market Structure

The market currently looks like it is entering a retracement rather than showing a confirmed structural breakdown.

The scenarios and strategies published in the Weekly Market Outlook remain fully valid.

We are not changing the plan because of one weak pre market session.

Instead, we are watching whether price can turn the former supply areas below into demand.

Several of the major indices are now approaching exactly those areas.

SP500 Futures ($ES)

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Strong Equities, Weak Macro: The Market Is Entering a More Fragile Phase

US equities are still trading close to their highs, but the environment underneath the market is becoming harder to ignore.

The geopolitical risk around Iran remains high. Energy supply is improving in some areas, but global inventories remain tight. US and Japanese bond yields are still putting pressure on liquidity, while the US dollar continues to strengthen.

At the same time, equities continue to attract buyers.

That creates an unusual market structure: price remains strong, but the macro environment is becoming increasingly risk off.

This week’s Premium Market Outlook focuses on:

1. Why the US-Iran conflict remains a major risk even as energy flows through Hormuz improve.

2. How low global energy inventories and Europe’s diesel problem could keep inflation pressure alive.

3. Why high US and Japanese yields remain one of the biggest risks for global liquidity.

4. What the Fear & Greed Index and UA CAPITAL Risk Index are showing as short term Risk On strength starts to fade.

5. How options positioning, CME expectations and current gamma levels are shaping this week’s market structure.

6. The exact SPY, ES, QQQ and NQ levels I am watching for confirmed reactions, breakouts and reversals.

   ---

Market Macro Sentiment

US-Iran War: Military Risk Remains High

The diplomatic path between the US and Iran remains weak.

Iran continues to say that the Strait of Hormuz will not formally reopen until its conditions are met, while Trump has rejected Tehran’s latest proposal.

At the same time, the US is increasing its military presence in the region.

A third aircraft carrier and around 2,000 Marines are being sent into the area, while the possibility of stronger military action after the US midterms remains on the table.

This keeps the geopolitical risk premium elevated.

There is, however, one positive development.

Energy traffic through Hormuz has recovered strongly and is now close to pre war levels.

That gives the global energy market some breathing room.

But the important point is that improved traffic does not mean the political or military problem has been solved.

The region remains unstable, and a new escalation could quickly reverse that improvement.

Houthis and Bab el-Mandeb

The second major pressure point remains Bab el-Mandeb.

The Houthis continue to expand their presence in the area while targeting Saudi infrastructure, including Aramco facilities.

Saudi backed Yemeni forces are now pushing back, and a much larger offensive involving more than 100,000 troops is being discussed for the coming period.

This matters because the global energy market is already operating with limited flexibility.

If Hormuz remains politically unstable while Bab el-Mandeb becomes heavily disrupted at the same time, oil transport routes would come under pressure from two major directions.

That would once again increase the risk of a sharp energy price reaction.

For markets, this remains one of the most important geopolitical risks to watch.

Aramco Warns About Low Energy Inventories

Saudi Aramco has also warned that global crude and refined product inventories have been heavily depleted.

According to the current assessment, rebuilding those inventories could take as long as two years.

This does not mean the world is running out of oil.

The important point is that the buffer is much smaller.

When inventories are healthy, the market can absorb short term supply disruptions relatively easily.

When inventories are already low, every new disruption becomes more important.

That leaves global markets much more sensitive to new attacks, pipeline problems, refinery shutdowns or shipping disruptions.

The energy market therefore has less room for error than it had before the conflict.

Europe’s Diesel and Energy Problem

Europe remains another important part of the energy story.

Ukraine continues to target Russian refining infrastructure and has indicated that these attacks will continue.

At the same time, Europe’s diesel market has become tight enough that the US has pressured European governments to release emergency reserves.

Europe has now agreed to release diesel and crude stocks, which should provide some short term relief.

However, this does not solve the underlying problem.

Russian refining capacity remains under pressure.

Middle Eastern supply remains unstable.

And Europe is approaching winter with limited energy flexibility.

This combination keeps the risk of higher energy costs alive.

If the problem continues into winter, energy inflation could once again become a much bigger issue for Europe and global markets.

Bond Yields and Global Liquidity

The bond market remains one of the biggest problems for risk assets.

US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are still trading near multi decade highs.

Japan’s 10-year yield is also close to 3%.

That is not a comfortable liquidity environment.

Higher yields increase borrowing costs, put pressure on equity valuations and make government bonds more attractive compared with risk assets.

For expensive growth stocks, this matters even more because higher discount rates reduce the value investors are willing to place on future earnings.

The important signal is that yields remain high even after weaker US jobs data reduced expectations for another Fed hike.

That tells us the bond market is still dealing with pressures that go beyond only the next Fed decision.

Until yields start cooling more clearly, global liquidity conditions remain tight.

US Dollar Adds More Pressure

DXY has now moved above 102 and remains strong.

A move above 103 is becoming more realistic if US yields stay elevated and European stress continues.

A strong dollar creates another layer of tightening.

High yields already increase the cost of money.

Expensive energy increases costs across the economy.

A stronger dollar then adds even more pressure to global financial conditions.

This is especially difficult for emerging markets and companies with dollar Related financing needs.

It can also become a problem for large US multinational companies because foreign earnings become less valuable when translated back into dollars.

The combination of strong DXY, high yields and expensive energy is therefore something I am watching very closely.

The Bottom Line

The market is still absorbing a very difficult macro environment surprisingly well.

Energy flows through Hormuz have improved, which removes some immediate pressure.

But the military risk around Iran remains high, Houthi activity continues around Bab el-Mandeb, global energy inventories remain thin, and Europe is still facing an uncomfortable energy setup heading into winter.

At the same time, US and Japanese yields remain elevated and DXY continues to strengthen.

That creates a difficult combination for global liquidity.

The market can continue higher while buyers remain active, but I would not treat the current price strength as proof that the macro risks have disappeared.

The longer this divergence continues, the more important risk management becomes.

Market Fear & Greed

Market sentiment is currently at 38, which keeps the market in the Fear phase.

Last week, the reading was 37.

So sentiment has improved slightly, but there has not been a meaningful change in overall confidence.

For a healthy and sustainable bullish market, I prefer to see sentiment eventually move into Greed.

Neutral is usually the area where the market is still trying to find direction.

Greed is generally the stronger environment for sustained bullish trends and new all time highs.

Fear is different.

Fear does not automatically mean that price needs to fall.

But it does mean confidence is weak and sudden moves become more likely.

What makes the current situation interesting is that equities remain close to all time highs while sentiment is still in Fear.

That tells us investors are participating in the upside, but they do not fully trust the trend.

This is another reason to avoid becoming too aggressive with position size.

Risk Index

What is the Risk Index Oscillator?

This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.

Current readings:

Long Term: Risk On

Mid Term: Risk On

Short Term: Risk On | Reducing

The market technically remains Risk On across all three timeframes.

However, the important change is happening in the short term reading.

ShorT term Risk On strength has started to decline.

That does not mean the market has already turned bearish.

It means the bullish momentum inside the Risk Index is weakening.

If that decline continues, the short term reading could eventually move into the bearish side.

That would become a much more important warning signal.

For now, the structure remains bullish, but the direction of change is becoming less supportive.

This is happening at the same time that the macro environment remains very difficult.

That combination deserves caution.

I would rather reduce size and wait for clean confirmation than become aggressive simply because the major indices remain near their highs.

Premium Section

The sections above outline the macro environment and the sentiment backdrop currently shaping market behavior.

Below the paywall, I walk through the positioning data, options sentiment, key liquidity levels, and the exact ES, NQ, SPY and QQQ zones I am watching this week. This includes the levels where I expect potential bounces, breakdowns, or volatility expansions to develop.

If you want to see the full positioning analysis and the technical execution framework for the week ahead, the remainder of this report is available to premium members.

Options Sentiment

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• Confirmed Scenarios: 10

• Reached First Partial: 10

• Invalidated Before First Partial: 0

• Scenario Hit Rate: 100%

• ES: 3/3

• SPY: 2/2

• QQQ: 2/2

• NQ: 3/3

• Largest Move: NQ +525.5 Points

Result: A very clean week across the index scenarios.

Week 39 Recap | The Levels Did Their Job

Week 39 was a pretty good example of why I prefer building scenarios before the week starts instead of trying to guess one direction and stick with it.

The market gave us both longs and shorts this week.

Some of the demand areas held.

Some of the supply areas rejected.

And in a few cases, price moved from one level almost directly into the next one.

Across ES, SPY, QQQ and NQ, we had 10 clean scenario confirmations based on the rules shared in last weekend’s outlook.

All 10 reached at least their first target before invalidation.

10 confirmed setups
10 reached TP1 or better
0 losses before TP1

That does not mean every point shown on the charts was captured.

It also does not mean every scenario was traded.

This is simply a review of how the levels and scenarios performed once the market actually reached them.

And this week, they worked very well.

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ES | The Flip Zone Stayed Important All Week

ES came into the week sitting around our main 7,757–7,777 Flip Zone.

That was the area I wanted to watch first.

Below it, Demand 1 was sitting around 7,715.

Above it, the next major area was the 7,828–7,850 supply.

So there was no real reason to chase ES in the middle.

The better trades were always likely to come around those areas.

That is pretty much how the week played out.

The Flip Zone reacted several times.

When buyers managed to reclaim the upper side, ES gave roughly 31.5 points of upside.

Later, price moved into Demand 1 around 7,715 and buyers stepped in again.

That reaction gave around 39.75 points.

We also got the other side of the move.

Once ES lost the lower side of the Flip Zone, price moved roughly 41 points lower and traded back into Demand 1.

So ES gave us opportunities in both directions during the week.

That is exactly why I do not like forcing a permanent bullish or bearish bias on intraday price action.

The level tells us what to do.

SPY | Demand Held, Then Supply Rejected

For SPY, the structure was simple.

We had Demand 1 around 761.75.

The main Flip Zone was sitting around 764–766.

And supply was waiting around 772.25–775.

The plan was to let price come to us.

SPY eventually traded down into Demand 1 and buyers reacted.

From there, price moved roughly 10 points higher and reached the upper supply area.

That was the first clean move.

Then the market gave us the opposite side.

Once SPY reached 772.25 supply, sellers showed up and price rejected the area by roughly 5 points.

So we basically got a move from demand into supply, followed by a rejection from supply.

There was no need to predict the whole week.

Both setups were already on the chart.

QQQ | One of the Cleanest Rotations of the Week

QQQ had a very clean structure going into Week 39.

The main Flip Zone was around 731.25–735.25.

Supply was sitting around 746–750.

This gave us a fairly simple plan.

If buyers defended the Flip Zone, we could look back toward supply.

If supply rejected price, the short side became interesting again.

Both happened.

QQQ tested the Flip Zone and gave us the bullish confirmation we were looking for.

From there, price moved around 10.03 points higher and traded directly into supply.

That supply area then produced a rejection of roughly 9.08 points.

This was probably one of the cleanest examples from the week.

Flip Zone to supply.

Supply back lower.

Nothing complicated.

Just waiting for price to reach the levels and then waiting for confirmation.

NQ | The Biggest Move Came From 30,375

NQ was the strongest chart of the week in terms of total movement.

Coming into the week, the main Flip Zone was around 30,105–30,375.

Supply 1 was sitting between 30,890 and 31,078.

Above that, we had 31,292.25 as the next major supply.

The first question was whether buyers could defend 30,375.

They did.

Once that area held, NQ expanded higher and gave roughly 525 points of movement into the first supply area.

That was the biggest move from any of our Week 39 levels.

But again, that did not mean we should suddenly become permanently bullish.

When price reached Supply 1, sellers reacted as well.

NQ moved roughly 300–340 points lower from that area during the rejection.

Then things changed again.

Later in the week, buyers regained control and NQ broke above the upper side of Supply 1.

That activated the breakout scenario around 31,078.

From there, NQ added another roughly 200 points and traded very close to our 31,290 target and the 31,292.25 Supply 2 level.

This was probably the best example of the whole week.

The same area first worked as resistance.

Later, it broke and became the trigger for another long.

That is why I always prefer reacting to price instead of getting attached to one narrative.

Week 39 in Numbers

Across ES, SPY, QQQ and NQ:

10 clean scenarios gave confirmation.

10 reached at least TP1.

0 were invalidated before reaching TP1.

That gives us a 100% scenario hit rate for Week 39.

Again, I want to be clear about what that number means.

This is not a claim that every setup was traded.

It is not portfolio return.

And it is not a claim that we captured every point shown on the charts.

It simply measures whether the scenarios published before the week worked once their conditions were met.

That distinction matters.

What I Liked Most About This Week

The best part of Week 39 was not the 100% number.

It was the way the market moved between our areas.

ES kept reacting around the Flip Zone.

SPY moved from demand into supply.

QQQ gave us almost a full rotation from Flip Zone to supply and back lower.

NQ gave us more than 500 points from the main Flip Zone before eventually breaking into the next supply structure.

There were opportunities on both sides.

And that is exactly how these weekly outlooks are supposed to be used.

I am not trying to tell you on Sunday that the market will only go up or only go down for the next five days.

That is not the point.

The point is to know where I want to become interested.

What confirmation I need.

Where the next target sits.

And what would tell me the setup is wrong.

Then I wait.

Final Thoughts

Week 39 was one of those weeks where the pre planned structure made trading much easier.

We did not need to chase price.

We did not need to change the plan every few hours.

And we definitely did not need to predict every candle.

The important levels were already on the charts before the week started.

Once price reached them, we waited for confirmation and reacted from there.

Some levels gave longs.

Some gave shorts.

Some did both at different points during the week.

That is normal.

Markets change.

Our job is to adjust with them.

We do not predict. We react.

The Week 40 Market Outlook will be published before the market opens, with the updated ES, NQ, SPY and QQQ levels, scenarios, confirmation rules and invalidation points.

New Weekly Market Outlook Is Live on YouTube

The new UA Capital Weekly Market Outlook is now live.

In this week’s video, I break down the higher timeframe structure across:

$ES, $SPY, $NQ, $QQQ, Gold, Silver, BTC and ETH.

We go through the main weekly levels, key decision areas and the larger market structure that could shape the next move.

The YouTube outlook is built to give you the bigger picture before the week starts.

It is not the same as the Substack analysis.

The scenarios, levels and execution plans shared on Substack are built separately and are much more focused on short term execution, confirmation and risk management.

Use YouTube for the weekly visual framework.

Use Substack Premium for the detailed execution plan.

[Watch the Latest UA Capital Weekly Market Outlook on YouTube]

From Weekly Levels to Real Time Execution

Week 39 showed why having the right levels before the week starts matters.

But levels alone are not enough.

The harder part is knowing when a setup is actually confirmed, when the bias changes, and when risk needs to be reduced.

That is where the Premium side comes in.

Premium members get:

• Daily pre market plans

• Real time Telegram alerts

• Intraday bias and level updates

• Live risk management and position updates

• Separate SPY, QQQ, ES and NQ execution scenarios built specifically for Substack

The YouTube channel focuses on the higher timeframe weekly picture.

Substack goes deeper into the actual execution side, with different scenarios, different levels, tighter invalidations and real time updates as the market develops.

The Weekly Outlook gives you context.

Premium Substack and Telegram handle the execution.

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Share Market Context

The market is sitting in a very mixed macro environment today.

On one side, US yields and global yields are pulling back slightly, which is creating some room for risk on conditions. Junk bonds are also moving higher, which is usually a constructive sign for the indices.

On the other side, liquidity conditions are still far from clean.

We are seeing signs of stress across Asia, the USD remains strong, and capital is still rotating into safer areas rather than fully committing to risk assets.

That conflict is exactly why the market has struggled to establish a clean direction throughout the overnight and pre market sessions.

PCE Could Be the Catalyst

Today’s PCE release is the main event I am watching.

The market is currently stuck between two opposing macro forces, and PCE could be the catalyst that finally breaks this balance and gives us a cleaner directional move into the end of the week.

If the data creates a bearish reaction and our system confirms the move, I am considering opening one or two swing hedge positions.

The purpose of those positions would not be to completely change our longer term market view.

We still hold bullish swing and spot exposure from positions built over the past few months.

The hedge would simply protect part of that exposure if the short term structure starts weakening further.

At the moment, however, there is no confirmed hedge.

If the trigger appears, I will share the exact position, entry, invalidation, and management plan directly with the UA CAPITAL Premium Desk in real time.

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ES | Clean Level to Level Rotation

ES has been one of the cleanest markets this week.

Price has been rotating between Demand 1 and the Flip Zone almost perfectly.

That created multiple opportunities on both sides.

Longs could be taken from Demand 1 and managed into the Flip Zone.

Once price reached the Flip Zone and rejected, the same structure could then be used for shorts back into the range.

The important part is that this was not a one time reaction.

The rotation repeated several times.

In total, the same level to level structure offered multiple clean setups, and each reaction came from areas already mapped before price reached them.

This is exactly the type of environment where predefined levels become extremely useful.

Instead of reacting emotionally to every candle, we already know where we want to become interested in the market.

SPY | Short Scenario 2 in Focus

SPY is currently sitting around one of the most important areas from this week’s plan.

The Flip Zone has already broken to the downside, and price is now testing that same area from below.

That changes the character of the level.

What previously acted as support can now become resistance.

Because of that, Short Scenario 2 | Flip Zone Bearish Breakout is currently one of the main setups I am watching.

If PCE pushes the market into a clearer bearish structure and price confirms rejection around the Flip Zone, that scenario could become active.

On the other hand, if SPY reclaims the area and holds above it again, the bearish setup becomes much weaker.

This is why the level itself is only one part of the trade.

The reaction and confirmation around the level are what matter.

NQ | Long Scenario 1 Delivered Twice

Nasdaq has also respected the Weekly Market Outlook very well.

The NQ Flip Zone was tested twice.

Both times, price reacted bullishly from the area and activated Long Scenario 1.

Both setups moved into the 30,650 target area before losing momentum.

That gave traders the opportunity to take partial profits into the target and protect the remaining position at breakeven.

The important part is not simply that NQ bounced.

The important part is that the same predefined scenario worked twice from the same structural area.

That is the whole idea behind the Weekly Market Outlook.

We map the important areas first.

Then we wait.

If price reaches the level and gives the required confirmation, we take the trade.

If it does not, we do nothing.

QQQ | Long Scenario 1 is Alive

QQQ is giving us a different structure.

Price reacted almost perfectly from the 735 Flip Zone and produced a clean bullish bounce from the area.

That reaction keeps Long Scenario 1 alive.

If PCE supports the risk on side and QQQ continues to hold above the Flip Zone, this could become one of the cleaner bullish structures of the session.

If the level fails, however, we simply step aside and wait for the next scenario.

There is no reason to force the long side just because price reacted once.

The entire purpose of predefined scenarios is to know what we want to see before we put money at risk.

Why These Scenarios Matter

SPY, QQQ, ES, and NQ are currently telling slightly different stories.

That is normal.

SPY is sitting around a potential bearish Flip setup.

QQQ is still holding a bullish reaction from its Flip Zone.

ES continues to rotate cleanly between predefined levels.

NQ has already delivered multiple successful reactions from its own Flip Zone.

This is why I do not want to reduce the market to simply “bullish” or “bearish.”

Different instruments can give different opportunities at the same time.

The job is to know where those opportunities can develop before price gets there.

The detailed levels, Long and Short Scenarios, triggers, targets, and invalidations for all four markets are already mapped inside the Weekly Market Outlook and shared with the Premium Desk.

Today’s Approach

There is no need to force a trade today.

The macro signals are conflicting, and PCE may become the catalyst that finally gives the market a clearer direction.

But the data itself is not the trade. Price confirmation is.

For now, the plan remains simple: Wait for the Key Levels.

Wait for the scenario to activate. Wait for confirmation.

Then manage the trade level to level.

If the market gives us a clean swing hedge opportunity after PCE, I will share the exact position with the UA CAPITAL Premium Desk in real time, including what I am opening, why I am opening it, where the trade becomes invalid, and how I plan to manage it.

Until then, patience remains the trade.

Level to level. Confirmation first. No FOMO.

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Energy Shock, Record Yields & a Fragile Risk On Market

US equities are entering the new week with two very different forces pulling the market in opposite directions.

On one side, the macro environment has become much harder. The US-Iran war remains unresolved, global energy infrastructure is under pressure, Treasury yields are near multi decade highs, and the dollar remains strong. All of this creates a difficult combination of inflation risk and tighter global liquidity.

On the other side, equities continue to attract strong buying. AI related strength, solid Q4 expectations and continued demand for US technology are helping the market hold up despite the macro pressure.

That conflict between a difficult macro environment and strong equity demand is the main theme of this week’s outlook.

What’s Inside This Weekly Premium Market Outlook

1. Why the US-Iran conflict and the energy crisis remain the biggest macro risks for equities.

2. How high US and Japanese bond yields are tightening global liquidity and increasing pressure on risk assets.

3. Why the dollar matters again and how another move higher could create additional stress for equities.

4. What the Fear & Greed Index and the UA CAPITAL Risk Index are currently showing.

5. Below the paywall, the latest options positioning, CME rate expectations and the exact SPY, ES, QQQ and NQ levels I am watching this week.

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Market Macro Sentiment

US-Iran War: Risk Premium Is Back

The market briefly started pricing a possible diplomatic path between the US and Iran, but that optimism has faded again.

President Trump rejected Iran’s latest seven day proposal related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting negotiations. At the same time, both sides continue to leave the door open to future talks, so diplomacy is not completely off the table.

For markets, the important part is that there is still no clear end to the conflict.

Hormuz remains heavily disrupted, Iran continues its attacks, and the possibility of renewed US military action after the midterms keeps the geopolitical risk premium elevated.

That uncertainty matters because markets are not only trying to price the war itself.

They are trying to price how long the war can continue and how much damage it can create through oil, inflation and global trade.

As long as the conflict remains unresolved, geopolitical headlines can continue to create sudden moves across equities, oil, bonds and the dollar.

Energy Crisis Is Becoming the Main Macro Threat

The bigger macro problem is now energy.

The Strait of Hormuz remains under severe pressure, while Houthi attacks around Bab el-Mandeb and against Saudi energy infrastructure have also reduced the effectiveness of alternative export routes.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline became particularly important because it allowed crude to bypass Hormuz and reach the Red Sea. Recent attacks disrupted that route and led to cancellations or delays of some Saudi cargoes scheduled for European refiners.

This is especially important with Europe heading closer to winter.

If energy disruptions continue, European refiners may need to replace Saudi crude with more expensive alternatives. That can increase transportation and production costs and create another source of inflation pressure.

Ukraine is also adding pressure on the energy side through attacks on Russian refining infrastructure.

The result is a global energy market facing pressure from several different directions at the same time.

This is the part of the current macro environment that worries me the most.

High oil prices do not only affect energy companies.

They move through the whole economy.

Transportation gets more expensive. Manufacturing costs rise. Consumers pay more for fuel. Companies face higher operating expenses.

Most importantly, persistent energy inflation can make the Fed’s job much harder.

If oil and refined products remain structurally strong, inflation can remain sticky even if other parts of the economy start slowing.

That is not a comfortable setup for equities.

Bond Yields Are Tightening Global Liquidity

The second major problem is the bond market.

US Treasury yields have moved back to levels not seen for many years. The US 10-year yield recently reached around 5%, its highest level since 2007.

Higher yields tighten financial conditions across the economy.

Government borrowing becomes more expensive.

Corporate financing becomes more expensive.

Mortgage rates remain elevated.

And most importantly for equity investors, higher risk free rates make expensive stock valuations harder to justify.

This is especially relevant for technology and other long duration growth stocks.

When Treasury yields rise aggressively, future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. That can put pressure on valuations even when the underlying companies remain strong.

Japan is another important part of this story.

Japanese bond yields have also risen sharply, while concerns around the yen carry trade and capital repatriation have increased. Higher Japanese yields make domestic assets more attractive to Japanese investors and can reduce the amount of capital flowing into foreign markets.

That creates another potential source of global liquidity tightening.

This does not mean every increase in Japanese yields will automatically create a market selloff.

But when US yields, Japanese yields and energy prices are all elevated at the same time, the liquidity environment becomes much less supportive.

Strong Dollar Adds Another Risk Off Layer

The dollar is another piece of the same macro puzzle.

High US yields, safe haven demand and expectations for tighter Fed policy have continued to support the dollar.

DXY has recently been trading around the 100 area, with a move above 103 still remaining a possible scenario rather than a confirmed breakout.

If yields remain elevated and the energy crisis continues, the dollar could stay supported.

That matters because a stronger dollar tightens financial conditions globally.

Emerging markets usually feel this pressure first because dollar denominated financing becomes more expensive.

But US companies can also be affected.

Large multinational companies generate a significant part of their revenue overseas. A stronger dollar reduces the value of those foreign earnings when converted back into USD.

So when oil, yields and the dollar are all rising together, they create several different forms of pressure on risk assets at the same time.

Macro Setup Is Turning Stagflationary

When we put everything together, the current macro setup is becoming increasingly uncomfortable.

Oil remains elevated.

Treasury yields remain high.

The dollar is strong.

Global liquidity is becoming tighter.

And geopolitical risk remains extremely sensitive to headlines.

That combination creates a stagflationary risk.

Inflation remains difficult to control because energy costs stay high, while tighter financial conditions can eventually slow economic activity.

For equities, this is one of the more difficult macro combinations.

The important difference is that the stock market has not fully reacted to that pressure yet.

US equities are still seeing strong buying, supported by AI related demand, earnings expectations and strong Q4 positioning.

So we currently have a clear divergence.

The macro environment is risk off.

But equity price action remains much stronger than the macro picture would normally suggest.

That divergence can continue for some time, especially while institutional demand remains strong.

However, it also makes the market more vulnerable to sudden downside moves if one of the major macro risks gets worse.

The Bottom Line

The macro environment has clearly become more difficult for US equities.

The US-Iran conflict remains unresolved, global energy infrastructure is under pressure, US Treasury yields are near levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis, and the dollar remains supported by tighter financial conditions.

Normally, that combination would create a much cleaner risk off market.

But that is not what price is currently showing.

US equities continue to attract strong buying, especially around technology and AI related names, while Q4 expectations remain positive.

This creates a market where the macro structure and the price structure are not fully aligned.

For now, price is winning.

But I would not ignore the macro warning signs.

If oil continues higher, yields remain elevated and geopolitical risk gets worse at the same time, the market could see sharp downside moves very quickly.

If one or more of those pressures start cooling, the equity market will have much more room to continue the current bullish structure.

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Market Fear & Greed

Market sentiment is currently at 37, which keeps the market in the Fear phase.

Last week, the reading was 29.

So sentiment has improved, but the market is still far from a strong Greed environment.

For a healthy bullish market, I prefer to see sentiment eventually move back into Greed.

Neutral is usually the area where the market is trying to find direction.

Greed is generally a healthier environment for sustained bullish trends and new all time highs.

Fear is different.

Fear does not automatically mean the market has to fall.

It means confidence is weak and the market can react much more aggressively to new information.

That can work in both directions.

A negative geopolitical headline can create a fast selloff.

At the same time, strong demand at an important technical level can create an equally aggressive short squeeze or recovery.

The improvement from 29 to 37 is positive, but the market is still in an unstable sentiment environment.

Price confirmation remains more important than the sentiment reading alone.

Risk Index

What is the Risk Index Oscillator?

This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.

Current readings:

Long Term: Risk On

Mid Term: Risk On

Short Term: Risk On

The important point here is that all three Risk Index timeframes remain Risk On.

After the Fed rate increase removed part of the policy uncertainty, equities saw strong buying. That pushed the short term Risk Index back into a bullish structure as well.

Strong Q4 expectations are also helping US equities attract capital.

However, this is not a clean Risk On environment.

The macro headwinds are still unusually strong.

Energy prices remain a problem.

Treasury yields remain elevated.

Global liquidity is tightening.

And the geopolitical environment can change quickly.

So while the Risk Index remains bullish across short, medium and long term timeframes, I would still treat this market with more caution than a normal Risk On environment.

The biggest risk is a sudden macro driven flush while positioning remains heavily bullish.

For now, the market continues to absorb negative macro conditions remarkably well.

But that resilience should not be confused with the absence of risk.

Premium Section

The sections above outline the macro environment and the sentiment backdrop currently shaping market behavior.

Below the paywall, I walk through the positioning data, options sentiment, key liquidity levels, and the exact ES, NQ, SPY and QQQ zones I am watching this week. This includes the levels where I expect potential bounces, breakdowns, or volatility expansions to develop.

If you want to see the full positioning analysis and the technical execution framework for the week ahead, the remainder of this report is available to premium members.

Options Sentiment

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Adapting to the Tape: Absorbing ES Losses and Recovering Through NQ

Week 38 was a good example of why execution and risk management matter just as much as having the right market levels.

After maintaining a long stretch without a red week, we took our first losing week last week and the ZERO red weeks YTD streak came to an end. There is no reason to hide that. Losing weeks are part of trading, and what matters is how the desk responds when the market does not follow the expected path.

This week, the focus was therefore less on trying to make up for the previous result and more on getting back to the process.

The week started with a difficult environment for our ES setups. Two long attempts were invalidated as the market continued to chop around the key structural levels. Instead of forcing trades or trying to immediately recover those losses, we kept the risk controlled and shifted our attention toward the Nasdaq side of the market, where the structure was much cleaner.

That adjustment made the difference.

Our NQ setups provided the strongest opportunities of the week, while QQQ and SPY also delivered clean trades around their predefined levels. By the end of the week, we had closed 8 trades with 5 winners and 3 losses, resulting in a 63% win rate.

More importantly, the week finished green and the desk was able to move forward without changing the risk framework simply because the previous week had been difficult.

The goal is not to maintain an unbroken winning streak.

The goal is to keep the process intact through both winning and losing periods.

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📊 WEEK 38 SCOREBOARD

• Total Trades Closed: 8

• Winning Trades: 5

• Losing Trades: 3

• Overall Win Rate: 63%

• Index Options: 3 Trades | 2 Wins 1 Loss (QQQ - SPY)

• Futures: 5 Trades | 3 NQ Wins 2 ES Losses

• Equities / Precious Metals / Forex: 0 Trades

Result: Profitable week.

For me, the main takeaway from Week 38 is not the win rate.

It is the way the desk handled the losing trades.

ES did not work. We accepted that.

NQ provided better structure. We shifted our attention there.

QQQ gave us an initial loss and then another opportunity from the same level. We waited for confirmation rather than forcing the recovery.

That is what the framework is designed to do.

We do not need every trade to work. We need to control the downside when the market invalidates our idea and stay active when the structure gives us a better opportunity.

MACRO STRUCTURE & INDEX EXECUTION

Our weekend analysis gave us the main structural levels for the week. As the market developed, the job was simply to see which of those levels actually produced a valid reaction and manage the trades from there.

Nasdaq Futures ($NQ) | 3 Trades 3 Wins

NQ was clearly the strongest part of the desk this week.

The first opportunity came on Tuesday when 30890 flipped from resistance into support. Once the level held, we took the long and captured 194 points, or approximately 0.63%, before closing the position.

The bigger opportunity came overnight Thursday.

30375 had already been identified as an important Flip Level in our analysis. During the overnight session, NQ returned to the level, retested it and closed back above it. That gave us the confirmation we were waiting for.

The reaction from there was substantial. NQ eventually moved around 625 points higher, roughly 2.00% from the level. We managed the position by trailing the stop and taking profits into the move rather than trying to hold the entire expansion.

The final result was approximately 350 points captured from that setup.

Friday morning provided one more opportunity. NQ broke above 30620, successfully retested the level and gave us another long entry. This was a shorter intraday trade, but the move still delivered approximately 250 points, or 0.85%.

Across the three NQ trades, we finished 3 for 3.

^{Caption: NQ execution review showing the 30375 Flip Level reaction, the larger structural move and the additional intraday setups around 30890 and 30620.}

Nasdaq EFT ($QQQ) | 2 Trades - 1 Win 1 Loss

QQQ required more patience.

We stayed out on Monday and Tuesday and waited for the market to reach our Swing Level 2 at 737.

The first long attempt came on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the setup was stopped during Thursday’s cash open.

At that point, the important part was not trying to immediately recover the loss. We went back to the structure and waited for confirmation.

Later on Thursday, QQQ returned to the same 737 area and gave us the reaction we were looking for. We took the second long and this time the move developed cleanly, eventually producing approximately 6.3 points, or 0.85%.

We closed the position during Friday’s morning session.

So QQQ finished the week with one loss and one successful re entry from the same structural area.

^{Caption: QQQ execution review showing the initial invalidation at Swing Level 2 and the subsequent confirmed reentry from the same 737 level.}

SP500 EFT ($SPY) | 1 Trade 1 Win

SPY was relatively straightforward.

Our Mid Term Bullish Target at 768.75 rejected the market and produced a roughly 5.5-point downside move. We did not take that short because it was outside our primary directional plan.

Instead, we waited for SPY to come back toward our Swing Level at 765.5.

That level held as expected and provided the long setup we were looking for. We entered alongside the QQQ position on Thursday and captured approximately 5 points, or 0.65%, before taking profits during Friday morning.

This was a good example of why having levels is not enough by itself. The market can react perfectly from a level, but if the setup does not fit the broader plan, there is no reason to trade it.

^{Caption: SPY execution review showing the rejection from 768.75 and the subsequent reaction from the 765.5 Swing Level.}

SP500 Futures (ES) | 2 Trades, 0 Wins 2 Losses

ES was the difficult part of the week.

After the strong Sunday gap and Monday move, we did not want to chase the market. We waited for price to come back to our predefined levels and looked for confirmation.

The first attempt came Tuesday from the 7825 Upper Flip Level. The setup initially triggered, but the market failed to hold the structure and the position was stopped on Wednesday.

We then waited for the next major level at 7765.

The second long attempt came from that Swing Level on Wednesday, but this setup was also invalidated as the market continued to chop.

Two losing trades on the same index are obviously not the outcome we wanted. But this is also where the risk framework matters.

We did not increase size to recover the losses. We did not chase the market after the invalidations. We simply accepted the drawdown and looked for the next clean opportunity.

Interestingly, ES produced a strong long setup from 7765 on Friday. We deliberately did not take it.

By that point, we were already heavily allocated to an NQ long scalp, and adding another position in the same direction would have pushed the desk beyond our preferred exposure in a macro sensitive environment.

Sometimes the best trade is the one you leave alone.

^{Caption: ES execution review showing the two invalidated long attempts from 7825 and 7765, along with the Friday setup that was intentionally skipped because of existing NQ exposure.}

HIGH TIME FRAME MARKET ANALYSIS ON YOUTUBE

I have also started building out the UA CAPITAL YouTube channel around the same idea.

Every weekend, I publish a free High Time Frame market breakdown covering the major structural levels and broader market context across SP500, Nasdaq, Gold, Silver, BTC and ETH.

The purpose is simple: establish the bigger picture before the trading week begins.

The YouTube content is completely free and focuses on the broader market structure. The detailed execution work, live position management and daily trade planning remain part of the Premium desk.

[Click Here to Subscribel]

WHAT’S NEXT FOR UA CAPITAL PREMIUM

The desk is also moving into the next stage of its educational content.

Later this autumn, I will start breaking down more of the actual frameworks behind the way I approach the market, including the quantitative models, structural analysis and execution process used throughout the week.

This will be a deeper look at how the levels are built, how the market is filtered and, perhaps most importantly, how positions are managed once a trade is live.

The current Premium pricing will also be changing later this fall as these additional educational modules are introduced.

Existing paid members will keep their current pricing.

For anyone considering joining, the current rate therefore remains available before the new pricing takes effect.

Premium currently includes:

• Daily pre market analysis with predefined SPY, QQQ, futures and other market scenarios

• Live market updates and position management

• Real time trade and risk updates through the Premium communication channel

• Options, futures and equities

• The upcoming educational modules covering the frameworks and models behind the desk

The focus remains the same: better preparation, clearer levels and disciplined execution.

No prediction is necessary.

We prepare the levels, wait for the market to confirm them and react to what price actually does.

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Geopolitical Energy Risk, Falling Yields & A New Trend Setup

As we enter the third week of September, markets are facing a very different setup from the one we saw a few weeks ago. Geopolitical risks remain high, energy supply is under pressure, and the war in the Middle East continues to create uncertainty. At the same time, however, US yields appear to have formed a local top, global liquidity conditions are improving, and the end of Triple Witching has removed an important source of mechanical pressure from the market.

This week’s Premium Market Outlook focuses on:

1. How the expanding energy crisis could keep inflation higher for longer and continue to affect global markets.

2. Why the local top in US yields is important for equities, liquidity and risk appetite.

3. What the Fear & Greed and UA CAPITAL Risk Index are currently showing about the market structure.

4. How options positioning is changing after Triple Witching and where the key liquidity levels are building.

5. The exact SPY, QQQ, ES and NQ levels I am watching for potential reactions, breakouts and reversals this week.

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Market Macro Sentiment

Geopolitical Deadlock: The US-Iran Mid Term Equation

As September moves into its third week, the US administration appears to be operating under the assumption that the war in the Middle East is unlikely to end in the near term.

The current conflict path may continue well into the period around the upcoming US mid term elections. Washington also faces limitations in defense capacity and declining ammunition stocks, which makes the current situation more complicated from a tactical perspective.

At the same time, official statements from Washington continue to show that the US is not closing the door to negotiations.

The diplomatic door remains open, but the next move largely depends on Iran. Tehran appears to be in no rush to reach an agreement and continues to approach negotiations with conditions. This makes a near term regional ceasefire more difficult and keeps geopolitical risk elevated.

For markets, the main issue is not only the military conflict itself.

The bigger problem is how long the uncertainty remains in place.

If the conflict continues for longer than expected, the impact on energy prices, inflation expectations and global risk appetite can become more persistent.

Europe’s Energy Crisis Risk: Pipeline Attacks and Multi Front Escalation

Geopolitical risk is no longer limited to the Middle East. Energy supply routes are now facing pressure from several different directions.

Ukraine’s drone attacks on critical oil refineries around Moscow have created another potential disruption on the supply side and helped keep crude oil prices elevated.

At the same time, the Houthi expansion around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and continued attacks against Saudi Aramco infrastructure, including the East-West pipeline, are putting additional pressure on regional energy and transit routes.

The situation becomes even more important for Europe.

Saudi Arabia has decided to stop October oil shipments to the European Union following the latest attacks and disruptions. This creates another major energy risk for Europe heading into the winter period.

Higher energy costs can quickly move through the economy.

Transportation becomes more expensive. Production costs increase. Inflation becomes harder to control.

This also creates a political and economic incentive for European countries to become more directly involved in efforts to stabilize the region.

The Houthi expansion is also becoming a broader regional issue as threats extend toward countries including Türkiye and Pakistan.

The longer this continues, the stronger the risk that energy prices remain higher for longer.

That would make global inflation more sticky and could keep pressure on central banks and risk assets.

Local Top in Bond Yields and Synchronized Liquidity Support

Despite the difficult geopolitical environment, one of the most important developments this week is coming from the liquidity side.

US Treasury yields, which have been putting significant pressure on equities for months, appear to have formed a local top and started moving lower.

This is important.

Falling yields can ease financial conditions and improve liquidity across global markets. When yields stop rising aggressively, institutional capital has more room to move back into technology stocks and other risk assets.

This is one of the main reasons why equities can remain strong even while geopolitical headlines remain negative.

Japan also remains important.

The Bank of Japan raising rates may look like a tightening move on its own. However, the broader policy path remains relatively synchronized with the Federal Reserve, which has helped prevent a major disruption in global liquidity and the carry trade mechanism.

The key point is that the market is currently getting support from lower US yields at a time when geopolitical risks remain elevated.

That combination can create a very different market reaction from what we would normally expect from negative headlines alone.

Triple Witching Is Behind Us: The Market Can Finally Search for a Trend

Another important technical factor has now been removed from the market.

Last Friday was Triple Witching, when stock options, index futures and index options expired at the same time.

This event can create significant mechanical positioning around major index levels. Large options positions, hedging activity and expiration flows can keep price trapped inside relatively narrow ranges.

That pressure has now passed.

With expiration positioning and related adjustments largely completed, the cash market has a cleaner environment to search for direction.

This is important because the market has spent weeks trading inside relatively tight ranges.

With Triple Witching behind us and US yields showing signs of a local top, the probability of seeing a cleaner and more directional trend increases.

The next question is whether that trend develops to the upside or downside.

For me, price confirmation remains the key.

The Bottom Line

As of September 21, Wall Street is pricing a growing energy crisis risk as Saudi Arabia stops oil shipments to the European Union, Houthi threats expand, and the Middle East conflict continues without a clear near term resolution.

This creates a serious macro risk through higher oil prices and potentially stickier inflation.

However, there is another side of the equation.

US Treasury yields appear to have formed a local top and started moving lower. At the same time, the coordination between the Fed and BOJ has helped keep global liquidity conditions more stable.

This is supporting risk assets and allowing institutional capital to continue moving into technology and equities despite the geopolitical pressure.

The key development this week is therefore the balance between geopolitical risk and improving liquidity.

If yields continue lower and oil starts forming a local top, the market can have room to develop a stronger bullish trend.

If oil continues accelerating higher while yields reverse back up, the risk environment can change quickly.

Price confirmation remains more important than the headlines.

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Market Fear & Greed

Market sentiment is currently at 29, which puts the market firmly in the Fear phase.

Last week, the reading was 33.

The decline shows that overall market confidence has weakened further.

For a healthy bullish structure, I prefer to see sentiment remain in the Greed area. Neutral is generally the zone where the market is trying to find direction, while Greed is the environment where stronger trends and new all-time highs are more commonly seen.

Fear is different.

Fear does not automatically mean that the market has to continue lower. It means the market can become much more sensitive to headlines and can make sharp moves in both directions.

A negative geopolitical headline can trigger a fast flush.

At the same time, if buyers step in around major technical levels, the same Fear environment can produce a strong recovery.

This is why the sentiment indicator should be used together with price structure rather than on its own.

Risk Index

What is the Risk Index Oscillator?

This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long term positioning decisions.

Current readings:

Long Term: Risk On

Mid Term: Risk On

Short Term: Risk On

The short term reading has now shifted back into Risk On territory.

After the Fed delivered the expected 25 basis point rate hike last week, part of the market uncertainty was removed. The reaction that followed was strong buying across risk assets, which also pushed the short-term Risk Index back into a bullish structure.

This is an important change from the previous setup.

The long term, mid term and short term Risk Index readings are now all Risk On.

However, this does not mean geopolitical risk has disappeared.

Oil prices, energy supply disruptions and developments around the US-Iran conflict can still create sudden volatility.

The Risk Index is showing that the underlying market structure has improved, but price still needs to confirm the continuation of that structure.

Premium Section

The sections above outline the macro environment and the sentiment backdrop currently shaping market behavior.

Below the paywall, I walk through the positioning data, options sentiment, key liquidity levels, and the exact ES, NQ, SPY and QQQ zones I am watching this week. This includes the levels where I expect potential bounces, breakdowns, or volatility expansions to develop.

If you want to see the full positioning analysis and the technical execution framework for the week ahead, the remainder of this report is available to premium members.

Options Sentiment

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