Q4 2026 Bias: Late October stall & chop -> late November bottom cluster -> mid December -> year end pause

Q4 opens with TOTALMC and BTC just below September highs, elevated SOPR and low ZTSRESS. Late October reads as a choppy market distributing prior quarter gains rather than a clean continuation. The best long setup waits for the late November bottom cluster (Nov 19 - Dec 6), framed as a swing entry into year-end at a minimum.

Use the windows as a timing map, not as automatic trade signals. The decisions that matter are avoiding new positions or adding to existing ones in October and buying the low (or a breakout in November). These choices determine your capital base for the next leg of the bull market.

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Macro Context

The daily windows are tradable, but the higher-timeframe context is still an unconfirmed bottoming process. The Q3 read held on timing and missed on direction: the windows caught the Aug 15 low and the Sep 20 high, but September broke out to a new quarterly high instead of making the lower high I expected and drawn in models. That’s not a bad thing as it sets the stage for a true price action trend shift if that happens again. Diverging from the lower low shown in the model this quarter a low anchored in Q3 to a higher low around December. Given we are passing the weekly bottom (the bottom of the bear market) the higher lows into a higher high would complete the technical transition to our new market cycle.

As markets are often built from the bottom up stabilization and the beginning range bound behavior in ALTs through October and tightening ranges at highs into November will be a key indication that the market is trying to transition.

The practical read is: Q4 is Groundhog’s Quarter. By all accounts the market should confirm the bear market is behind us. October moves are for risky players and a lower low in October to November and we can expect more bear winter. Barring that November breakouts become the confluence and confirmation needed for full exposure with expectations of taking profits and making swing plays through Q1.

Turning Window Map

Scenario Trigger Table

Base Case — October Chop, November Higher Low, Year-End Top (my primary read, ~50% odds)

The likeliest path is that the core tops somewhere in the Oct 12-30 window without breaking down, pulls back into the late-November cluster, holds above the Aug 15 lows and rallies into the year-end top cluster. It is the path TOTALMC, the highest-confidence stream (84.9%), traces window for window. I'd grow more confident in this if ZTSTRESS spikes in its Oct 15-24 window while the CRYPTO100 washes out into their bottom windows, and if BTC and TOTALMC then bottom together inside Nov 19-Dec 6 with CRYPTO100 confirming. I'd start doubting it if the core trends straight through the October window, or if the late-November low breaks the Aug 15 lows.

How to position: add nothing into late October, buy the late-November cluster on confirmation, and reduce into Dec 15-Jan 11.

Bull Case — The Weekly Bottom Is Already In (~25% odds)

The more optimistic path is that Q3's rally was the start of the weekly upswing, the October window produces only a shallow pause, and the late-November dip gets bought quickly while breadth keeps expanding. The weekly cycles already point up into Feb-Apr 2027, and Q3 showed how easily the trend can outrun a cautious read, so this path needs nothing unusual. I'd upgrade this view if BTC and TOTALMC hold above their Sep 14 lows through November and CRYPTO100 holds above its Sep 15 low. I'd downgrade it if the late-November low undercuts the Sep 14 lows.

How to position: hold a core position through October, add on the late-November dip, and treat the year-end cluster as a place to trim rather than exit.

Bear Case — The Weekly Bottom Fails (~25% odds)

The downside path is that Sep 20 was a daily cycle high, the October window prints a lower high, and the late-November cluster breaks down instead of holding. I'd start upgrading this concern if BTC and TOTALMC lose their Sep 14 lows in October. I'd treat it as confirmed if the late-November cluster breaks the Aug 15 lows (BTC about 62.9k) while CRYPTO100 fails to bottom inside its Nov 12-Dec 29 weekly window and ZTSTRESS keeps rising through November instead of bottoming. I'd downgrade it if the late-November lows hold and CRYPTO100 confirms with the core. While this is even odds as the bull case contextually it would be very out of character for past crypto market cycles.

How to position: stay light, treat December strength as a sellable bounce into the year-end cluster, and let the Q1 report decide reentry.

My Trading Plan

Calendar

• October 12: Core top window opens (TOTALMC Oct 12, BTC Oct 13). Watch BTC/TOTALMC for a stall below the September highs while ZTSTRESS rises into its Oct 15-24 peak.

• October 26: Breadth washout window opens (CRYPTO100 Oct 26-Nov 6). Watch CRYPTO100 for lows as stress comes off its peak.

• November 19: Main Q4 bottom cluster begins (SOPR Nov 19, TOTALMC Nov 23, BTC Nov 25). Watch BTC/TOTALMC first, CRYPTO100 breadth second, and ALTS participation third.

• December 15: Year-end top cluster begins (ZB Dec 16, TOTALMC Dec 21, BTC Dec 23). Watch ZB first; treasuries lead this cluster.

Confirmation Checklist

Sizing Rules

• Add no new risk into Oct 12-Nov 1.

• Build only after the late-November cluster shows confirmation.

• Keep the November position tactical; the year-end cluster is the broadest top cluster of the quarter.

• Reduce exposure into Dec 15-Jan 11 rather than waiting for every top signal to complete.

Bottom Line

October is for patience, late November is for the quarter's long attempt, the second half of December is for taking risk back down, and the crypto core's weekly cycle points higher into Feb-Apr 2027.

🤪 Off Topic Corner

Current Location: Puebla, Mexico

Puebla is an enjoyable locale. Not too big, not too small and lots of interesting things to see and do or just live. It feels pretty comparable to Querétaro (another nice place we stayed after Mexico City). We went to Lucha Libre at Arena Puebla. It was our first time seeing it. Was a pretty fun experience. A pretty small but super loud venue. If you ever Make your way to Mexico you should probably add going to a match to your todo list, not as something to marvel at the fights or anything (because it’s all simulated) but it’s a unique performance you can’t really find anywhere else.

Remember, markets are risky. I’m not your financial advisor, and none of the analysis presented is financial advice.

@ThePrivacySmurf

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Q3 2026 Bias: Early July exhaustion -> mid-August tactical bottom -> September distribution -> late-quarter reset.

Q3 opens with a dense top cluster across TOTALMC, BTC, CRYPTO100, ALTS, and SOPR while STRESS is low. That combination reads to me as late Q3 was risk-on environment now reaching exhaustion with complacent market participants. The best tactical long setup is mid-August, but the September windows argue for profit-taking at a lower-high or distribution structure rather than chasing a new trend.

The most important decision this quarter is to seek validating (or invalidating) technical signals to avoid adding risk into the early-July and mid-September tops. The best long attempt looks to be the mid-August bottom cluster, but it remains tactical (not positional) until weekly windows confirm. It COULD be the bottom bottom of the bear but acting like it without the later higher tiemframe confirmation is a RISKY decision.

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Macro Context

The daily windows are active and tradable, but the higher-timeframe context is still a bottoming process, not a clean all-clear. The Q2 macro thesis is holding up: daily long setups should be treated tactically; smaller positions sizes annd locking profit early while moving stops to breakeven; until the larger weekly cycle finishes it’s bottoming and long term market reset. The difference now is that the weekly bottoming window is no longer vague. It forms a clear late-2026 ladder. Late Q3 into Q4 the first serious macro accumulation window

The practical read is: Q3 daily rallies remain tactical through the September de-risking window, then late September through mid-November becomes the first higher-timeframe accumulation zone. Treat it as a bottoming process with room for volatility, not as a full macro green light. The Q4 report will likely make the timing for bottom confirmation clearer.

Turning Window Map

Scenario Trigger Table

Base Case — August Relief, September Lower High (my primary read, ~55% odds)

The likeliest path is that August delivers a relief rally and September then makes a lower high rather than a fresh breakout. I'd grow more confident in this if early July gets rejected, the August bottom holds, BTC and TOTALMC stabilise, CRYPTO100 confirms the breadth, and the September rally narrows before the Sep 13-25 window. I'd start doubting it if the August bottom fails immediately, or if breadth stays strong right through September.

How to position: trade August tactically, then reduce exposure heavily into Sep 13-25.

Bull Case — Late September Becomes a Q4 Launchpad (~20% odds).

The more optimistic path is that the late-September reset kicks off a genuine Q4 accumulation phase. I'd upgrade this view if BTC, TOTALMC and CRYPTO100 stay aligned over a 30-60 day window and the weekly BTC bottom hold into October. I'd downgrade it if the Sep 25-Oct 2 bottom fails or stress keeps climbing through October.

How to position: de-risk in September, then only redeploy once the weekly cycles confirm.

Bear Case — July Top Dominates (~25% odds).

The downside path is that the early-July top sets the tone for the whole quarter and rallies keep failing. I'd upgrade this concern if BTC and TOTALMC lose their August lows, CRYPTO100 rolls over with TOTALMC, ALTS leadership fails, and SOPR keeps deteriorating. I'd downgrade it if stress peaks cleanly and BTC, TOTALMC and CRYPTO100 reclaim alignment.

How to position: stay defensive and treat any August strength as a sellable bounce.

My Trading Plan

Calendar

• July 3: Q3 opening top window begins. Watch BTC/TOTALMC/CRYPTO100 for rollover.

• August 8: Major bottom cluster begins. Watch BTC/TOTALMC first, CRYPTO100 breadth second, and ALTS participation third.

• September 13: Primary Q3 exit window begins. Watch BTC/SOPR/CRYPTO100 for top confirmation.

• September 25: Late-quarter reset begins. Watch BTC/SOPR bottom for Q4 setup only after the exit window clears.

Confirmation Checklist

Sizing Rules

• Avoid adding risk into the early-July top cluster.

• Build only after the August bottom shows confirmation.

• Keep August sizing tactical because September contains a dense top cluster.

• Reduce exposure into Sep 13-25 rather than waiting for every top signal to complete.

Bottom Line

July is for de-risking, August is for a tactical long attempt, September is for taking risk back down, and late September through Q4 is the first serious higher-timeframe accumulation watch.

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🤪 Off Topic Corner

Current Location: Mexico City, Mexico

It’s been fun to be around all the excitement of the World Cup. No, I haven’t been to see any games, but that’s ok. Another really neat part of the city is random music. Often I’ve heard someone walking down the street playing some instrument while they are walking around to whoever they are going. So far it’s been a trombone, trumpet, guitar, saxophone. Then the other day, coming home from the park, I passed these two guys playing a xylophone thing. It was super neat. Sorry I didn’t get the recording closer, but I stopped to get out some pesos for their tip jar. This was not on some busy, bustling touristy street. It was the middle of a random neighborhood with just me on the sidewalk, so I don’t really know who this was for, beside maybe their own practice.

Remember, markets are risky. I’m not your financial advisor, and none of the analysis presented is financial advice.

I’ve got a lot to catch up on so stay tuned!

@ThePrivacySmurf

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There’s a lot to talk about regarding Zen Trades, and I’ll get to some of it this week. First things first: the new quarterly forecast, along with a post-mortem of last quarter’s report and my entire forecasting history.

I feel like I’ve done nothing but write here about how things are changing, and I’m going to have to do that again, but I don’t know what that will be yet. The most important work (my quarterly reports) will always live on, though. I appreciate you being here. Stay tuned.

@ThePrivacySmurf

Q2 2026 Bias: Underlying Bearish Trend Backdrop
Early April top → Selloff into early-mid May broad bottom → Counter-trend rally into mid-June top → Correction into late June / early July.

High-Edge Entry Window: May 6 – May 17.
Dense bottom cluster across BTC, TOTALMC, SOPR, and ALTS. Financial Stress (FSC) has declined, and bonds are rising — macro conditions align for a broad-based counter bear-trend rally. This is the highest-conviction long entry of the quarter.

High-Edge Exit Window: Jun 13 – Jun 30.
Massive top cluster across BTC, TOTALMC, SP500, and CRYPTO100, confirmed by SOPR topping (profit-taking exhaustion) and FSC already rising (stress returning). Bond prices bottoming (yields peaking) adds macro headwind. This is the highest-conviction profit-taking zone.

Key Levels:
Total mCap ~$2.06T / ~$2.14T / ~$2.9T / ~$3.25T
BTC ~$60,300 / ~$75,900 / ~$97,400

Allocation on Entry (currently flat): 40% exposure, 60% cash.
(Conservative positioning given weekly headwinds. Deploy tactically into the May 6-17 bottom cluster with reduced size and tighter stops. Take profits early in the mid-June top window, reducing exposure to ~10% and raising cash to ~90%.)

Please support my work with a share, a paid newsletter upgrade, and/or a donation!

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🎯 Zen Trades Scoreboard

Turning Points (As of April 6, 2026)

The accuracy report will be available in mid-September, after the final Q2 windows have been confirmed. Despite all the turmoil and shocking behavior in the markets, the turning points have remained accurate. It should come as no surprise that the Financial Stress has missed both forecasted turns so far; the last looks to be on track, though. This quarter is at 79.9% efficiency vs. 71.8% last quarter (my worst quarter). Overall, across assets for the past 5 quarters, I’m sitting at a ~77% success rate.

The Brier Scoring on my forecasting continues to trend. This showcases my ability to assess the trustworthiness of my models and accurately estimate the number of turns that will actually play out.

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🎛️ Market Dashboard (Clock Wall)

See Appendix below for full image links and list views of turning windows.

Here’s an additional image that shows the timing window overlaps more clearly.

🌊 Macro Context

While the Technical Deep Dive focuses on daily data, it’s important to understand the macro backdrop. There are higher patterns that influence daily timeframe behavior. Weekly models across TOTALMC, BTC, Bonds, and Financial Stress are all in broad downtrends through 2026. Daily turning windows this quarter are best viewed as counter-trend rally setups within a bearish weekly envelope. Expect muted rallies, lower highs, and faster failures. Trade tactically, not position-ally. All bullish action I’m treating as suspect until Q3/Q3.

🔬 Technical Deep Dive

1. Early April (Near-Term Top & Rollover):

• Cluster: The period from April 6 to April 15 marks a near-term top as Q2 opens. We see synchronized peaks in BTC (Apr 8-21), TOTALMC (Apr 6-13), and CRYPTO100 (Apr 5-14).

• Confirmation: SOPR continues to rise or spikes, signaling profit-taking is happening more often or there’s a large cash out.

• Interpretation: Q2 opens into the tail end of a rally from Q1’s late-March range bottom bounce. The synchronized tops across BTC, TOTALMC, and CRYPTO100 all arriving in the first two weeks of April suggest this is an exhaustion move or incoming failed breakout attempt, not the start of a new trend.

2. Mid-to-Late April (Shallow Dip & Chop):

• Cluster: A quick sequence of TOTALMC bottom (Apr 17-20) and CRYPTO100 bottom (Apr 18-27), followed immediately by another TOTALMC top (Apr 27-30).

• Confirmation: FSC starts to bottom (Apr 24-May 5), signaling the calm is soon giving way to the storm.

• Interpretation: This is a choppy consolidation phase, possibly distribution. The market dips briefly after the early April top, bounces, then fails again. The rapid TOTALMC bottom-to-top-to-bottom sequence (Apr 17 → Apr 29 → May 11) shows indecision and range-bound price action. Be cautious, aggressive with profit taking and stop losses.

3. Early-to-Mid May (The Major Bottom — Key Entry):

• Massive Cluster: Between May 1 and May 17, we observe a dense cluster of troughs for BTC (May 6-17), TOTALMC (May 7-14), SOPR (Apr 27-May 8), and ALTS (May 1-10).

• Confirmation: ZB (Bonds) peaks (May 13-28), bond prices topping means yields are bottoming. Flight-to-safety demand has peaked and is reversing. This creates a tailwind for risk assets.

• Interpretation: This is the highest-conviction tactical long entry of the quarter. Multiple crypto indicators align all bottoming together while macro conditions shift from safety to risk. However, weekly composites remain in broad downtrends suggesting this is a counter-trend rally setup, not a trend reversal.

4. Late May (Rally & Early Rotation):

• Divergence: ALTS top (May 21-28) arrives early while BTC has no turning window until mid-June. ZB is still in its peak window (through May 28).

• Interpretation: The rally from the May bottom is but stalling. Perhaps BTC finds a resistance, dips a little and investor faith in the rally sustainability is shaken and profits are taken on ALTs and/or they are rotated back to BTC which stabilizes it’s price. However, this is the warning sign that the rally is narrowing. Bond prices starting to decline (yields rising) creates a slowly building headwind.

5. Mid-June (The Major Top — Key Exit):

• Massive Cluster: Between June 1 and June 30, we observe a sustained series of peaks for CRYPTO100 (Jun 1-8), SOPR (May 26-Jun 12), FSC (May 28-Jun 8), SP500 (Jun 5-18), TOTALMC (Jun 13-20), CRYPTO100 again (Jun 12-25), and BTC (Jun 15-30).

• Confirmation: ZB troughs (Jun 18-25), bond prices are bottoming (yields peaking), a classic risk-off macro signal. Keep an eye on SP500 as well as it shows a peak (Jun 5-18), equities and bonds confirm the true trad-fi risk-off turn.

• Rotation Signal: CRYPTO100 peaks first (Jun 1-8), followed by TOTALMC (Jun 13-20), then BTC last (Jun 15-30). The broad market dies first as late bloomers continue to run or strongest assets carry the market. Then total cap turns. This is a classic distribution pattern.

• Interpretation: This is a very high-conviction exit zone. The duration and density of this top cluster — spanning nearly the entire month of June across 6 of 8 tracked assets — is exceptional. Every major indicator is aligned: crypto tops across the board, equities top, stress peaks, bonds bid. The counter-trend rally born from the May bottom exhausts here — and with weekly models suggesting lower, the subsequent correction could be deeper and faster than the daily windows alone suggest It really depends on how high the rally goes.

6. Late June / Early July (Correction & Q3 Setup):

• Cluster: A tight set of troughs forms at quarter-end: ALTS (Jun 21-28), SP500 (Jun 24-29), TOTALMC (Jun 28-Jul 1), and FSC bottom (Jul 3-12).

• Confirmation: ZB peaks again (Jul 6-19), bond prices topping suggests yields are falling, which becomes supportive for risk. ALTS top (Jul 9-18) and SP500 top (Jul 8-13) follow quickly after, suggesting a bounce off the late June lows.

• Interpretation: The post-June selloff finds a floor at quarter-end. With weekly composites still pointing lower, this is likely a pause in the decline rather than a true reversal. The late June/early July bottom cluster may set up a Q3 relief rally, but weekly momentum suggests any bounce will be short-lived. Wait for Q3 analysis before committing capital.

🤔 Scenario Matrix

🤔 Q2 2026 Actionable Trading Plan

Mark Your Calendar: The two critical windows for Q2 are early-mid May (May 6-17) for the broad market bottom entry and mid-June (Jun 13-30) for the high-conviction exit. These are zones for decisive action, not exact dates.

Heed the Warnings: When ALTS top (May 21-28) while BTC hasn’t reached its June top window yet, that’s your rotation signal — the rally is narrowing. When CRYPTO100 tops (Jun 1-8) before BTC (Jun 15-30), breadth is dying. That’s distribution, not participation.

Step 1: Create a simple calendar alert system

• Enter May 6 in your charting platform. Note: “Major bottom window begins. Monitor for BTC + TOTALMC + ALTS bottoming patterns. High-conviction entry zone.”

• Enter Jun 13 in your charting platform. Note: “Major top window begins. Monitor for BTC higher high + breadth failure + rising stress. High-conviction exit zone.”

Step 2: Use confirmation tools inside a window

• May Bottom (May 6-17): Look for bullish reversal patterns — hammer candles, bullish engulfing, or RSI bullish divergence at support. Confirm with SOPR dropping (capitulation). Watch for ALTS stabilizing (May 1-10) before BTC bottoms (May 6-17), this leading indicator confirms the rotation setup.

• June Top (Jun 13-30): Look for bearish patterns — shooting stars, bearish engulfing, declining volume on new highs. Confirm with CRYPTO100 already rolling (topped Jun 1-8) while BTC pushes higher, this divergence is the classic distribution signal. FSC peaking (May 28-Jun 8) and ZB bottoming (Jun 18-25) confirm macro turning risk-off.

Step 3: Size positions by conviction

• May Bottom: If all daily signals align, this is the best tactical long of the quarter, but weekly headwinds cap conviction. Enter at reduced size with tighter stops than usual. If BTC fails to hold support or weekly momentum accelerates lower, consider an early cut or wait for stop.

• June Top: Take initial profits (if haven’t already) and apply trailing stops in the June window (Jun 13-17 rather than waiting for Jun 25-30). Weekly downtrend means the top may arrive faster and be abrupter. The idea is to systematically reduce exposure and raise cash.

Step 4: Risk controls

• Entry stop (May bottom): If entering on the May bottom, place initial stop below the April lows. If the May 6-17 cluster fails to hold, the Bear scenario (35% odds) is activating — weekly downtrend is in control.

• Trailing stop (through rally): As the rally develops through late May into June, trail your stop to break-even, then to recent swing lows. Protect gains approaching the June cluster.

• Exit discipline (mid-June): Don’t wait for perfection. When 2-3 top signals align in the Jun 13-30 window (CRYPTO100 already rolled, TOTALMC topping, stress rising, bonds bid), ensure your exit plan is solid and in place. The risk/reward shifts against longs at this point.

Step 5: Scenario monitoring

• Bull scenario watch: If BTC trades into the $80Ks and holds above the May bottom level through late June, ALTS make a higher low at the Jun 21-28 bottom window vs the May low, reevaluate your exit plan. This suggests the 15% Bull scenario (weekly inflection) may be activating. Plan for larger Q3 entry.

• Bear scenario watch: If BTC breaks below Q1 lows in April, or ALTS fail to bounce at the May 1-10 window, or SOPR crashes, the 35% Bear scenario is likely. Weekly downtrend is in full control. Move to cash or hedge. Reevaluate at late June for tactical relief rally only

  

🤪 Off Topic Corner

Current Location: Ulsan, South Korea

Korea doesn’t disappoint when it comes to hiking options. Yesterday was a 3-peak trail, 10 miles with overall +4000ft of elevation and awesome views. Clip from the top of Sinbulsan.

Remember, markets are risky. I’m not your financial advisor, and none of the analysis presented is financial advice.

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📑 Appendix

• Timing Window Images

• Timing Windows List

• Forecasting Accountability Promise

There wasn't a singular moment when I sat down and decided the path I was on had a ceiling. It was more like a slow realization that arrived somewhere between automating another part of my workflow and asking myself what, exactly, I was still doing manually. The answer was: less and less.

I'm a systems trader. The vast majority of what I do is quantitative. Chart work, pattern detection, anomaly scanning, and signal generation all follow rules developed over years of trading. Those rules can now be executed faster and more accurately with code than I can. When I'm honest with myself, most of what I do is reproducible by a machine.

That's not a comfortable thing to write.

Accuracy is important, but not unique

I'm proud of my forecasting track record. That accuracy meant more when that kind of systematic edge was genuinely rare, when finding someone who understood technical analysis and was consistent was a challenge.

The ability to find an edge is becoming easier for everyone with some free time, ideas, and AI. The ability to produce competent technical analysis is right at the fingertips of anyone with an internet connection. The thing that made me different is becoming less different.

What AI can't yet replace is judgment, the nuanced synthesis. The part where I look at the data and decide what it means, not just what it measures. Yes, there is AI with reasoning/thinking capabilities, but they still have limitations that our brains don’t. That's the part I want to build toward. That's where I think the durable value lives.

What I Actually Want

Ultimately, my trading future is in managing money for people who trust me.

Not writing about how to manage your own money. Not teaching you to replicate my process. Actually running capital on behalf of people who have the trading itch, got burned somewhere, understand the game, but don't have the time or depth to play it the way I do, as consistently as I have shown I can.

The draw for me isn't complicated: more working capital opens more strategies. More strategies mean greater income potential for me and for whoever trusts me with their money. The fiduciary part doesn't feel like a constraint to me. It’s an honor to be trusted with others’ capital. Besides, I've always held myself and my analysis publicly accountable.

This newsletter has always been a public track record. Every forecast and trade setup is published before the fact. Every hit or miss is documented. It’s not a content strategy, but how I think trust is built. The transition to money management is the natural next step of the same logic.

What's Changing and What Isn't

Zen Trades is losing the weekly deep technical breakdown: the chart walkthroughs, the indicator readings, and the scenario tables. Some of that content is moving to the Zen Workbench, so if you are a die-hard reader of the Crypto Checkpoints, you should subscribe below.

Zen Workbench

The Workbench is home to technical deep dives and supplemental data used to create all Zen Trades analysis for traders who want to understand the "why" behind the strategies—dense, detailed content for those ready to refine their edge.

By ThePrivacySmurf

I'm not going to keep centering this newsletter around technical analysis when I genuinely believe that doing your own TA is an increasingly losing proposition. Teaching people to draw lines on charts feels like teaching someone to use MapQuest. The future of trading (and technical analysis in general) is not in mastering this skill.

The forecasts stay. The quarterly turning point windows, the model convergence data, and the accuracy tracking; none of that goes away. That's the proof-of-work, and it continues.

There will be commentary on traditional markets as well, aside from just crypto. I’m not layering in tons of extra macro analysis explaining why X market is causing Y action in Z market. I’m simply adding the same trade setups and conditions that exist in crypto to stocks, indices, and other commodities.

What this newsletter becomes is something different: a window into how I'm thinking about and moving money through markets. The judgment layer. The nuanced read on what my models are saying versus what the crowd is hearing. Written for someone serious about their financial life, not necessarily someone looking for a trade every week.

Something like an open letter to my client. That's the frame. I want you to understand how I think and direct someone else’s capital before you'd ever consider trusting me with capital. This is how I continue to build that case, over time, in public.

If You've Been Here a While

You might not be who this is for anymore. I'd rather say that plainly than quietly change the product without acknowledging it. Every alteration since my first post has been to show my dedication to improving my skills and to provide what I think is most useful to my readers.

If you stick around Zen Trades, here's what you get: the same unfiltered thinking, the same no-BS process, and a front-row seat to watching someone who has always sought the signal through the noise and is adaptable enough to change with the markets instead of fighting them.

I've always wanted the educational side of my work to be bigger than it's been. That's one thing I'll admit I never quite delivered on. I acknowledge that it wasn’t the direction for me, and I’m moving towards the things I have stronger convictions in. It was something I wanted to believe was a goal for my content, but something else always took priority.

If You're New Here from the Traditional Markets

My crypto past isn't a scarlet letter. Crypto isn’t a dirty word. As a speculative vehicle, it's been one of the most profitable asset classes of its era. Knowing how to navigate it successfully through bull markets, bear markets, and everything in between, with a documented track record, isn't a liability. It's a demonstration of exactly the kind of judgment that transfers to any market.

In the history of this newsletter, the tools have changed. The format has changed. The judgment hasn't. That judgment is what I'd be asking you to trust with your money someday.

My alternative publication, Charter Quest, follows me on my public journey as I manage a prop firm trading account with a simple day-trading strategy, and my trials and tribulations as I pursue financial certifications to make professional money management possible in the first place. Subscribe there for a short weekly look behind the scenes of making professional Zen Trades a reality.

Charter Quest

Sixty months, six financial certifications. The ongoing diary of a perpetual elite analyst in progress.

By ThePrivacySmurf

I’m now at the point of registering my company for trading/advisory services and registering myself as an investment advisor representative. Register your interest in allocating funds for management in the form below. There’s zero commitment, cost, or spam.

https://zenalytics.notion.site/620f87f918e048d9856e382dc30c73bd

This is what I think is best for the reader. It's also what is honest. Those two things have always been the same to me.

Terry / @ThePrivacySmurf

📝 Smurf’s Cheat Sheet

Bottom confirmed, range is set.

Do nothing until closing above $75K or below $62K.

Retail sentiment is perpetually panicking.

Bullish momentum has peaked in the short term.

Current Bullish Positioning:

• No BTC spot exposure.

• No BTC leveraged exposure.

• No leveraged ALT exposure.

Detailed supporting data are available in this publication.

https://zenworkbench.substack.com/p/175-supplemental

A major shift is coming for Zen Trades. I’ll detail that in a post this week.

If you are into informal and personal content on AI, here’s my new Substack publication where I co-write with DiscreetBear, my AI co-pilot. It’s a weird little experiment, but fun.

https://www.thecontextwindow.dev/p/what-to-expect

🎛️ Market Dashboard

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📈Technical Deep Dive (BTC)

Price Action: Consolidation.

RSI: Suggesting ranging consolidation because measurements are below the midline and inside the adaptive bands. The RSI recently closed back under the adaptive top band, setting a momentum ceiling around $72.7K. Price action is fluctuating normally between supports and resistances with a bearish bias.

Divergence Trade Signal: If momentum doesn’t turn down too much, breaking below the early February lows may put on bullish divergence, a setup for a rally.

Trading Approaches for the Week: New bullish breakout potential but range trading it on deck. Smaller position sizing is the prudent approach.

*   **Bullish (highly unlikely) - Breakout**
    *   Condition: Close > $74K & RSI > midline & adaptive top band
    *   Action: Small long, StopLoss < $65K, Initial target $83K-85K
*   **Caution - Range Top Short **
    *   Condition: High > $74K & Close < $72K
    *   Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss > $75K, Initial target < $66K
*   **Bearish - Support Breakdown:**
    *   Condition: Close < $63K & RSI below bottom band
    *   Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss $72K, Initial target ~$54K.

Rist Management:

*   **Back in Spot Market if:**
    *   BTC: Divergence trade trigger on daily chart.
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   BTC: Small to Moderate entries

📈Technical Deep Dive (ETH & ALTs)

Price Action: Consolidation.

RSI: Suggesting ranging consolidation because measurements are below the midline and inside the adaptive bands. The RSI recently closed back under the adaptive top band setting momentum ceiling around $2,130. Price action is fluctuating normally between supports and resistances with a bearish bias.

Divergence Trade Signal: If momentum doesn’t turn down too much, breaking below the early February lows may put on bullish divergence, a setup for a rally.

ALTs: This week is probably not the week for breakouts, but it’s a good time to watch for the OKAY setups depicted below. A quick dip below support may provide the liquidity needed for a bounce and breakout play.

Non-BTC Trading Approaches for the week:

*   **ETH & ALT Breakouts**
    *   Condition: BTC$ flat/down, BTC & Stable cap down, Mrkt Driver down           *   Action: Evaluate ETH & ALT consolidation breakouts

Risk Management:

*   **Stop-Losses:** (if random breakout appears)
    *   Placement under clear pivot point ideally < 12% below entry
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   Small entries

🎯Zen Trades Scoreboard

🔮 Current Market Reflection

Same as last week:

We are now in an indecision phase. Early bears are well in profit and don’t need to do much until we have a rally to add to their shorts. Bottom-calling bulls have deployed capital, but don’t have any reason to do more because if this is a “real” and “traditional” bear market, the timing is way off, and we are nowhere near a bottom in terms of duration or drawdowns of bear markets. Everyone else is side-lined because they don’t know what to believe, are we bottomed or are we about to fall more? There are arguments to be made for both directions, with a bias towards the downside (in my opinion) because that’s the current price trend. Now is the time to range trade, practice and research new methods, review your bull market performance, and identify ways to improve for the next one. Don’t be passive or walk away. Sure, you can slow down, but don’t stop. Now is the best time for growth.

A dip below the February lows may look bad, but depending on momentum could be just the right amount of bearishness to trigger big players to buy into retail fear and selling. If there’s divergence, it’s a good sign that the market on the daily timeframe is finally trying to bottom for the next bullish leg.

New this week:

Barring any meaningful rally in the near future, we are approaching another bearish phase, which may mean we break through the floor for more nasty bear action next quarter.

Leave a comment

🤪 Off-Topic Corner

All my written content is free. If last week’s work saved you time, made you money, or prevented you from losing money, consider sending the value back. Donations go towards data provider costs. These resources enable my high-quality analysis.

Donate Here

My Current Location: Busan, South Korea

Back in Korea for the 3rd time. This time to the SE. While in Busan, we are trying to finish the Galmaet-gil Trail (around 170 miles).

We have 5 legs done so far, around 42 miles (68km). The ones just around Busan Station, the three legs of section 3, and two legs of section 4. My partner and I got slightly derailed after an ER visit for me. I got to experience gallbladder pain for the first time. I don’t recommend gallstones. I’m fine now, until it happens again. Got a ticking timebomb inside.

If you’ve been following my journey over on https://charterquest.substack.com/, you may already have an idea of what’s upcoming. I’ll register my company so I can manage investors’ capital professionally. Once regulatory approval is covered, for the first time, the analysis you've followed through Crypto Checkpoint can become an investment you make.

I have always been driven towards improvement and accuracy. These credentials will represent years of work and progress, transforming insights into action. Now, instead of reading about a crypto bottom or top, your capital benefits when I execute on my analysis.

For years, I've maintained a public track record through quarterly forecasts in the Scheduled Signal and weekly Crypto Checkpoint updates, documenting market calls in real-time.

This offering of professional capital management is for followers who don't have the time, energy, or desire to execute crypto strategies themselves. You'll benefit from the analysis and disciplined rigor across all ZT content, applied directly to your investment.

Register your interest in this form below. There’s zero commitment or cost.

https://zenalytics.notion.site/620f87f918e048d9856e382dc30c73bd

My company’s registration status does not imply a certain level of skill. 
Past analysis and commentary do not assure future results. 
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. 
Service availability may be limited to certain jurisdictions.

@ThePrivacySmurf

Subscribe now

📝 Smurf’s Cheat Sheet

New lows on the horizon.

Retail sentiment remains fearful, but panic subsided.

Momentum is slightly up while prices decline, that’s a good thing.

Still waiting for the market to prove we are at the bottom.

Current Bullish Positioning:

• No BTC spot exposure.

• No BTC leveraged exposure.

• No leveraged ALT exposure.

Detailed supporting data can be found in this new publication.

https://zenworkbench.substack.com/p/174-supplemental

I’ll be launching a private trade setup channel on Telegram VERY soon. All the positions I have posted above are cued by the signals going to this channel. I’ll send out the details for this in the coming week or two.

If you are into informal and personal content on AI, here’s my new Substack publication where I co-write with DiscreetBear, my AI co-pilot. It’s a weird little experiment, but fun.

https://www.thecontextwindow.dev/p/what-to-expect

🎛️ Market Dashboard

Donate Here

Share

📈Technical Deep Dive (BTC)

Price Action: Bearish consolidation.

RSI: Suggesting consolidation or downtrending price action because measurements are below the midline and inside the adaptive bands. Price action is fluctuating normally between supports and resistances with a bearish bias.

Divergence Trade Signal: If momentum doesn’t turn down too much breaking below the early February lows may put on bullish divergence, a setup for a rally.

Trading Approaches for the Week: Still no optimal bullish setups. Evaluating more short-term short positions. Same setups as last week. The Support Breakdown play is coming up but it has increased risk given that momenutm hasn’t fully declined yet. Smaller position sizing is the prudent approach.

*   **Bullish (highly unlikely) - Breakout**
    *   Condition: Close > $80K & RSI > midline
    *   Action: Small long, StopLoss < $67K, Initial target $80K-83K
*   **Caution - (unlikely) Range Top Short **
    *   Condition: Intraday bearish trade signal (sub-4hr timeframe) & Close < ~$76K
    *   Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss > $80K, Initial target < $67K
*   **Bearish - Support Breakdown:**
    *   Condition: Close < $63K & RSI below bottom band
    *   Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss $72K, Initial target ~$54K.

Rist Management:

*   **Back in Spot Market if:**
    *   BTC: Divergence trade trigger on daily chart.
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   BTC: Small to Moderate entries

📈Technical Deep Dive (ETH & ALTs)

Price Action: Bearish consolidation.

RSI: Suggesting consolidation or downtrending price action because measurements are below the midline and inside the adaptive bands. Price action is fluctuating normally between supports and resistances with a bearish bias. Breaking below the early February lows may put on bullish divergence, a setup for a rally.

Divergence Trade Signal: If momentum doesn’t turn down too much breaking below the early February lows may put on bullish divergence, a setup for a rally.

ALTs: This week is probably not the week for breakouts but it’s a good time to watch for the OKAY setups depicted below. A quick dip below support may provide the liquidity needed for a bounce and breakout play.

Non-BTC Trading Approaches for the week:

*   **ETH & ALT Breakouts**
    *   Condition: BTC$ flat/down, BTC & Stable cap down, Mrkt Driver down           *   Action: Evaluate ETH & ALT consolidation breakouts

Risk Management:

*   **Stop-Losses:** (if random breakout appears)
    *   Placement under clear pivot point ideally < 12% below entry
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   Small entries

🎯Zen Trades Scoreboard

🔮 Current Market Reflection

Same as last week:

We are now in an indecision phase. Early bears are well in profit and don’t need to do much until we have a rally to add to their shorts. Bottom-calling bulls have deployed capital, but don’t have any reason to do more because if this is a “real” and “traditional” bear market, the timing is way off, and we are nowhere near a bottom in terms of duration or drawdowns of bear markets. Everyone else is side-lined because they don’t know what to believe, are we bottomed or are we about to fall more? There are arguments to be made for both directions, with a bias towards the downside (in my opinion) because that’s the current price trend. Now is the time to range trade, practice and research new methods, review your bull market performance, and identify ways to improve for the next one. Don’t be passive or walk away. Sure, you can slow down, but don’t stop. Now is the best time for growth.

New this week:

A dip below the February lows this week, may look bad, but depending on momentum could be just the right amount of bearishness to trigger big players to buy into retail fear and selling. If there’s divergence it’s a good sign that the market on the daily timeframe is finally trying to bottom.

Leave a comment

🤪 Off-Topic Corner

All my written content is free. If last week’s work saved you time, made you money, or prevented you from losing money, consider sending the value back. Donations go towards data provider costs. These resources enable my high-quality analysis.

Donate Here

My Current Location: Da Lat, Vietnam

There is literally no way to capture in any picture how, let’s say, “different” this hotel is. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hằng_Nga_Guesthouse

Go see it if you visit Da Lat, just for the spectacle. I couldn’t imagine staying there overnight or longer.

If you’ve been following my journey over on https://charterquest.substack.com/, you may already have an idea of what’s upcoming. I’ll register my company so I can manage investors’ capital professionally. Once regulatory approval is covered, for the first time, the analysis you've followed through Crypto Checkpoint can become an investment you make.

If you’ve been following me here on Zen Trades, you know I have always been driven towards improvement and accuracy. This credential represents years of work and progress, transforming insights into action. Now, instead of reading about a crypto bottom or top, your capital benefits when I execute on my analysis.

For years, I've maintained a public track record through quarterly forecasts in the Schedule Signal and weekly Crypto Checkpoint updates, documenting market calls in real-time.

This offering of professional capital management is for followers who don't have the time, energy, or desire to execute crypto strategies themselves. You'll benefit from the analysis and disciplined rigor across all ZT content, applied directly to your investment.

Register your interest in this form below. There’s zero commitment or cost.

https://zenalytics.notion.site/620f87f918e048d9856e382dc30c73bd

My company’s registration status does not imply a certain level of skill. 
Past analysis and commentary do not assure future results. 
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. 
Service availability may be limited to certain jurisdictions.

@ThePrivacySmurf

Subscribe now

📝 Smurf’s Cheat Sheet

We are on pause.

Retail sentiment remains fearful, but panic subsided.

Momentum is flat.

Still waiting for the market to prove we are at the bottom.

Current Bullish Positioning:

• No BTC spot exposure.

• No BTC leveraged exposure.

• No leveraged ALT exposure.

Detailed supporting data can be found in this new publication.

https://zenworkbench.substack.com/p/173-supplemental

I’ll be launching a private trade setup channel on Telegram VERY soon. All the positions I have posted above are cued by the signals going to this channel. I’ll send out the details for this in the coming week or two.

If you are into informal and personal content on AI, here’s my new Substack publication where I co-write with DiscreetBear, my AI co-pilot. It’s a weird little experiment, but fun.

https://www.thecontextwindow.dev/p/what-to-expect

🎛️ Market Dashboard

Donate Here

Share

I got food poisoning this week. Took me down a couple of days.

📈Technical Deep Dive (BTC)

Price Action: Bearish consolidation.

RSI: Suggesting a potential floor formation because measurements are below the midline but closed above the adaptive bottom band. Bearish impulsive action has ceased with a momentum breakdown floor at ~$62.9K.

Divergence Trade Signal: Nothing to note. Momentum is in line with price.

Trading Approaches for the Week: Still no optimal bullish setups. Evaluating more short-term short positions. Same setups as last week.

*   **Bullish (risky) - Breakout**
    *   Condition: Close > $80K & RSI > midline
    *   Action: Small long, StopLoss < $67K, Initial target $80K-83K
*   **Caution - Range Top Short **
    *   Condition: Intraday bearish trade signal (sub-4hr timeframe) & Close < ~$76K
    *   Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss > $80K, Initial target < $67K
*   **Bearish - Support Breakdown:**
    *   Condition: Close < $63K & RSI below bottom band
    *   Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss $72K, Initial target ~$54K.

Rist Management:

*   **Back in Spot Market if:**
    *   BTC: Divergence trade trigger on daily chart.
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   BTC: Small to Moderate entries

📈Technical Deep Dive (ETH & ALTs)

Price Action: Bearish consolidation.

RSI: Suggesting a potential floor formation because measurements are below the midline but closed above the adaptive bottom band. Bearish impulsive action has ceased with a momentum breakdown floor at ~$1825.

Divergence Trade Signal: Nothing to note. Momentum is in line with price.

ALTs: With the RSI (and momentum) increasing across the board, I’m watching for potential recovery setups. Based on the image below, the GOOD and OKAY setups are likely more prevalent and available for small position sizes. These are risky trades because traditional bottoming signals I like haven’t shown up yet. This means lows are still very much on the table. I’d take the majority of the profit out at the initial targets and not worry about trailing the position for longer runs. The market has not proven itself yet. Take the money and run.

Non-BTC Trading Approaches for the week:

*   **ETH & ALT Breakouts**
    *   Condition: BTC$ flat/down, BTC & Stable cap down, Mrkt Driver down           *   Action: Evaluate ETH & ALT consolidation breakouts

Risk Management:

*   **Stop-Losses:** (if random breakout appears)
    *   Placement under clear pivot point ideally < 12% below entry
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   Small entries

🎯Zen Trades Scoreboard

🔮 Current Market Reflection

We are now in an indecision phase. Early bears are well in profit and don’t need to do much until we have a rally to add to their shorts. Bottom-calling bulls have deployed capital, but don’t have any reason to do more because if this is a “real” and “traditional” bear market, the timing is way off, and we are nowhere near a bottom in terms of duration or drawdowns of bear markets. Everyone else is side-lined because they don’t know what to believe, are we bottomed or are we about to fall more?

There are arguments to be made for both directions, with a bias towards the downside (in my opinion) because that’s the current price trend. Now is the time to range trade, practice and research new methods, review your bull market performance, and identify ways to improve for the next one.

Don’t be passive or walk away. Sure, you can slow down, but don’t stop. Now is the best time for growth.

Leave a comment

🤪 Off-Topic Corner

All my written content is free. If last week’s work saved you time, made you money, or prevented you from losing money, consider sending the value back. Donations go towards data provider costs. These resources enable my high-quality analysis.

Donate Here

My Current Location: Da Lat, Vietnam

We went to a pretty big exhibit/museum/school of hand-embroidered Vietnamese silk, all under the guidance of a guy named XQ. It’s amazing. The facility itself is kinda poorly laid out, and a jumble of a maze, but the works created in the area are unbelievable and fantastic. I can’t even begin to imagine the time and skill put into each of these. There was an American who (during the protest of the Vietnam War) was taught the practice at the school. In an interview, he said in the beginning it was really rough, and on one of his first full days' work on his first solo piece, he realized he’d spent all day, and he hadn’t even finished half a leaf. For some perspective, those silk panels are over 3 feet tall, and it’s aaaaaall silk embroidery between the wood. The threading is so fine, the silver silk is almost see-through, and it’s a double-sided piece. Just mind-blowing the craftsmanship and patience.

If you’ve been following my journey over on https://charterquest.substack.com/, you may already have an idea of what’s upcoming. I’ll register my company so I can manage investors’ capital professionally. Once regulatory approval is covered, for the first time, the analysis you've followed through Crypto Checkpoint can become an investment you make.

If you’ve been following me here on Zen Trades, you know I have always been driven towards improvement and accuracy. This credential represents years of work and progress, transforming insights into action. Now, instead of reading about a crypto bottom or top, your capital benefits when I execute on my analysis.

For years, I've maintained a public track record through quarterly forecasts in the Schedule Signal and weekly Crypto Checkpoint updates, documenting market calls in real-time.

This offering of professional capital management is for followers who don't have the time, energy, or desire to execute crypto strategies themselves. You'll benefit from the analysis and disciplined rigor across all ZT content, applied directly to your investment.

Register your interest in this form below. There’s zero commitment or cost.

https://zenalytics.notion.site/620f87f918e048d9856e382dc30c73bd

My company’s registration status does not imply a certain level of skill. 
Past analysis and commentary do not assure future results. 
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. 
Service availability may be limited to certain jurisdictions.

@ThePrivacySmurf

Subscribe now

I’m doing a bit of tidying up. Many readers may not know that there are some posts that I write each week that don’t go out to your inbox. Before each weekly update, I post all the technical details and data points that go into creating the regular analysis. Here’s an example from this past week’s analysis.

These and some other posts were originally set up under a different tab here on Zen Trades, and to get them delivered, you had to go into your settings and make some changes. To streamline that experience, I’ve created another (free) Substack publication just for that and other data-heavy posts. It may not be for most of my readers, but I know some will be interested in that content, so it will be over at The Workbench.

Zen Workbench

The Workbench is home to technical deep dives and supplemental data used to create all Zen Trades analysis for traders who want to understand the "why" behind the strategies—dense, detailed content for those ready to refine their edge.

By ThePrivacySmurf

Something New & Different

If you’ve been following along in my journey for getting financial credentials over at you’d know I’ve been getting into AI a lot more lately. It’s been quite an experience. Enough so that it’s inspired another publication. This time I’ve got help, though. My AI assistant (DiscreetBear) will be a co-author with me. We're calling it The Context Window — a weekly look at building real things with AI, from someone who's deep in the trenches.

To make it interesting, I’ve built out the framework for automated Substack publishing. DiscreetBear writes its own sections (unedited, for better or worse). DB will ask me for my sections each week and enter them. Think of it as a dual perspective on the same journey. If that sounds like your kind of weird, subscribe and come along for the ride.

The Context Window

A human trader and his AI build systems, break things, and write about what they learn. The Context Window is where ThePrivacySmurf and DiscreetBear document the messy reality of working with AI agents.

By ThePrivacySmurf

Thanks again for being a part of all I do. I appreciate you.

@ThePrivacySmurf

📝 Smurf’s Cheat Sheet

We are on pause from the bleeding.

Retail sentiment remains fearful.

Momentum has flattened out.

Still waiting for market to prove we are bottomed.

Current Bullish Positioning:

• No BTC spot exposure.

• No BTC leveraged exposure.

• No leveraged ALT exposure.

🎛️ Market Dashboard

Donate Here

Share

📈Technical Deep Dive (BTC)

Price Action: Bearish.

RSI: Suggesting a potential floor formation because measurements are below the midline but closed above the adaptive bottom band. Bearish impulsive action has ceased with a momentum breakdown floor at ~$62.9K.

Divergence Trade Signal: All bullish setups were invalidated last week. This would suggest longer consolidation at the lows or a revisit of the bottom to make new lows, contrary to a rally from here.

Trading Approaches for the Week: The short setup presented itself on Wednesday’s close and swiftly hit targets. Still no optimal bullish setups. Evaluating more short-term short positions.

*   **Bullish (risky) - Breakout**
    *   Condition: Close > $80K & RSI > midline
    *   Action: Small long, StopLoss < $67K, Initial target $80K-83K
*   **Caution - Range Top Short **
    *   Condition: Intraday bearish trade signal (sub-4hr timeframe) & Close < ~$76K
    *   Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss > $80K, Initial target < $67K
*   **Bearish - Support Breakdown:**
    *   Condition: Close < $63K & RSI below bottom band
    *   Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss $72K, Initial target ~$54K.

Rist Management:

*   **Back in Spot Market if:**
    *   BTC: Divergence trade trigger on daily chart.
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   BTC: Small to Moderate entries

📈Technical Deep Dive (ETH & ALTs)

Price Action: Bearish.

RSI: Suggesting a potential floor formation because measurements are below the midline but closed above the adaptive bottom band. Bearish impulsive action has ceased with a momentum breakdown floor at ~$1825.

Divergence Trade Signal: All bullish setups were invalidated last week. This would suggest longer consolidation at the lows or a revisit of the bottom to make new lows, contrary to a rally from here.

ALTs: With the market in decline, bullish ALT breakouts are pretty much off the table. With the RSI back in the bottom band, there may be many recovery setups. Using the image below, it’s less likely the IDEAL scenario will occur; the GOOD and OKAY setups will be plentiful and open to small position sizes worth considering. These are EXTREMELY RISKY. I’d take the majority of the profit out at the initial target and not worry about trailing the position for longer runs. The market has not proven itself yet. Take the money and run.

Non-BTC Trading Approaches for the week:

*   **ETH & ALT Breakouts**
    *   Condition: BTC$ flat/down, BTC & Stable cap down, Mrkt Driver down           *   Action: Evaluate ETH & ALT consolidation breakouts

Risk Management:

*   **Stop-Losses:** (if random breakout appears)
    *   Placement under clear pivot point ideally < 12% below entry
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   Small entries

🎯Zen Trades Scoreboard

🔮 Current Bull Market Reflection

In the next issue, we get a new title for this section. The bull market is dead. That’s less hyperbole than last week. We don’t have a traditional zigzag formation, but both BTC and the Total Market Cap charts show bearish daily trends and have closed below weekly supports. That’s enough for me to make it official and to say the speculation from Nov 2024 was right.

Where does that put us now? I’m not closing up shop. I’m taking tactical shorts and keeping an eye out for short-term bullish opportunities. While the market structure has shifted bearish, that in no way means we can’t have a catalyst that propels us back to new highs.

What I’m expecting more though is either more downside or a long grind, though ranges both up and down, a harder market to trade. We’ll see, though. I’m still watching the Feb timing windows from the quarterly post, even though we are on the less-likely bearish path.

Leave a comment

🤪 Off-Topic Corner

All my written content is free. If last week’s work saved you time, made you money, or prevented you from losing money, consider sending the value back. Donations go towards data provider costs. These resources enable my high-quality analysis.

Donate Here

My Current Location: Da Lat, Vietnam

There’s a pretty nice rooftop cafe where I work. It’s almost always empty because you have to ask the security guy in the lobby to come up. There’s no good signage saying where the cafe is or that you have to ask to get in. On a side note, Vietnam is a little tough for me. All the furniture is built for people smaller than me. Some of the streetside cafes, I swear, they are using little tykes plastic chairs that I’ll break just by putting half a butt cheek on, haha.

I’ll be launching a private trade setup channel on Telegram soon. All the positions I have posted above are cued by the signals going to this channel. Be on the lookout for more information in a follow-up newsletter/announcement. The Alpha group will start testing this week. Beta launch soon after.

If you’ve been following my journey over on https://charterquest.substack.com/, you may already have an idea of what’s upcoming. I’ll register my company so I can manage investors’ capital professionally. Once regulatory approval is covered, for the first time, the analysis you've followed through Crypto Checkpoint can become an investment you make.

If you’ve been following me here on Zen Trades, you know I have always been driven towards improvement and accuracy. This credential represents years of work and progress, transforming insights into action. Now, instead of reading about a crypto bottom or top, your capital benefits when I execute on my analysis.

For years, I've maintained a public track record through quarterly forecasts in the Schedule Signal and weekly Crypto Checkpoint updates, documenting market calls in real-time.

This offering of professional capital management is for followers who don't have the time, energy, or desire to execute crypto strategies themselves. You'll benefit from the analysis and disciplined rigor across all ZT content, applied directly to your investment.

Register your interest in this form below. There’s zero commitment or cost.

https://zenalytics.notion.site/620f87f918e048d9856e382dc30c73bd

I’ll be sharing a more detailed post later this week, but I’m curious about my readers' appetite for this.

My company’s registration status does not imply a certain level of skill. 
Past analysis and commentary do not assure future results. 
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. 
Service availability may be limited to certain jurisdictions.

@ThePrivacySmurf

Subscribe now

1. Total Market Weekly Structure

No New Changes - Most Recent Update Nov 9, 2025:

(Chart: Link)

Trend: Neutral, bullish support broken. On retracement from the latest ATH.

Key Levels: Potential resistance at $3.14T. Resistance at $4.15T. Potential support at $2.25T & $2.14T. Support at $1.9T.

Confirmation Watch: Awaiting two consecutive bullish candles and a close above $2.9T (at the time of writing) to confirm support.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish: Invalidated with the close below $2.46T. Must wait for more weekly structure to build out over time. We are now in a neutral market structure.

• Traditional Bearish: A close below 2.14T would qualify as a shift to bearishness by my rules (one broken support and 2 broken potential supports). Or more traditionally, two bullish weeks and a rally above $2.9T would give us structure support at the lowest close. Breaking below that support after confirmation would flip the weekly trend to bearish, as it would create the traditional high, low, lower high, lower low zigzag shape.

2. Total Market Daily Structure

No new changes - Most Recent Update Nov 4, 2025:

(Chart: Link)

Trend: Bearish. On retracement from the latest ATH.

Key Levels: Potential resistance at $3.25T & $3.53T, Resistance at $4.22T. Potential support at $2.14T. Support at $2.06T.

Confirmation Watch: Awaiting a close above $2.9T (at the time of writing) to confirm support.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish: Invalidated with the close below $2.39T. We have to wait for the price action to play out over a longer period.

• Bearish: Structural trend confirmed bearish after breaking the $2.39T and $2.21T supports.

3. Crypto Money Flow

New Changes!! - Most Recent Update Feb 6, 2026:

(Chart: Link)

Anchor point: Feb 6, 2026, 00:00 UTC.

Observation: I’ve pushed the anchor point forward as we have seen a price bottom form for most of the market, and Stable allocation has reached a peak and fallen.

Interpretation: The market is forming a bottom. I anticipate the starting point will change again in the near future as we are on very unstable footing and no clear rotation has formed aside from “not stables.” I’ll be watching for BTC to take the lead. This would be a good sign for the near future.

4. Additional Metrics

Retail Sentiment:

Highly Fearful. Market participants are super nervous. Despite the declining price action, we should still be on the lookout for a bullish signal to buy this fear for a turnaround. Patience is key to not being underwater.

Market Validity Score:

The vast majority of assets show bearish structure. Now we wait. DCAs should be paused for now.

Market Drivers:

The Market Driver Ratio measures relative performance concentration among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by comparing market-cap-weighted performance with equally weighted performance.

• Rising ratio: Indicates a concentrated, large-cap dominated market. This typically reflects risk-off sentiment or Bitcoin/Ethereum leadership. Consider favoring large-cap positions or reducing altcoin exposure.

• Falling ratio: Signals broad-based strength and altcoin outperformance. This reflects risk-on sentiment and market expansion. Consider rotating into smaller-cap opportunities.

• Watch for turning points or ranges where the ratio changes overall direction or breaks levels. These often indicate shifts in market regime and can signal when to reposition between large-cap and altcoin strategies.

Speculative trading has declined significantly, though opportunities may arise soon. This consolidation range is the range I’m watching. Breaking above, I’m either BTC-allocated or waiting. Breaking down, I’m looking for risky ALT trades.

Click the links below if you need a refresher on the sections above:

• Market Structure

• Crypto Money Flow

• Retail Sentiment

• Market Validity

@ThePrivacySmurf

📝 Smurf’s Cheat Sheet

We are on the bearish slide.

Retail sentiment is perpetual fear.

I’m waiting for the RSI (momentum) to level out.

No action is an action.

Current Bullish Positioning:

• No BTC spot exposure.

• No BTC leveraged exposure (TP1 & closed above BE).

• No leveraged ALT exosure (all trailed out).

🎛️ Market Dashboard

Donate Here

Share

📈Technical Deep Dive (BTC)

Price Action: Bearish.

RSI: Suggesting bearish impulsive price action in search of a new floor because measurements are below the midline and the adaptive bottom band. A close back above the bottom band would signal the end of bearish impulsive action.

Divergence Trade Signal: Bearish trade confirmation from Jan 20 close hit both initial target ~$83.4K and the secondary target around ~$78.4K. We now have a bullish setup on plain momentum, but other oscillator setups were invalidated.

Trading Approaches for the Week: The bearish setup posted happened too fast, so there was no play to make, given that the close that would have triggered the short was too close to the target and support. Now we wait.

*   **Bullish (risky) - Breakout**
    *   Condition: Close > $82.7K & RSI > bottom band
    *   Action: Small long, StopLoss < $79.7K, Initial target ~$90K
*   **Caution- Range Top Short **
    *   Condition: Intraday bearish trade signal (sub-4hr timeframe) & Close < ~$82.7K
    *   Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss > $85.4K, Initial target ~$76K
*   **Bearish - Support Breakdown:**
    *   Condition: Close < $74K & bullish divergences invalidated
    *   Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss $80K, Initial target ~$67-$70K.

Rist Management:

*   **Back in Spot Market if:**
    *   BTC: Divergence trade trigger on daily chart.
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   BTC: Small to Moderate entries

📈Technical Deep Dive (ETH & ALTs)

Price Action: Bearish.

RSI: Suggesting bearish impulsive price action in search of a new floor because measurements are below the midline and the adaptive bottom band. A close back above the bottom band would signal the end of bearish impulsive action.

Divergence Trade Signal: Nothing to comment on at the moment. All bullish setups have been invalidated.

ALTs: With the market in decline, bullish ALT breakouts are pretty much off the table. Once the RSI is back in the bottom band, though, there will be many recovery setups. Based on the image below, it’s less likely the IDEAL scenario will occur; the GOOD and OKAY setups will be plentiful and worth considering for small position sizes.

Non-BTC Trading Approaches for the week:

*   **ETH & ALT Breakouts**
    *   Condition: BTC$ flat/down, BTC & Stable cap down, Mrkt Driver down        
    *     Action: Evaluate ETH & ALT consolidation breakouts

Risk Management:

*   **Stop-Losses:** (if random breakout appears)
    *   Placement under clear pivot point ideally < 12% below entry
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   Small entries

🎯Zen Trades Scoreboard

🔮 Current Bull Market Reflection

The bull market is dead. That’s a bit of hyperbole, though. We are now neutral, not confirmed bearish yet, IMO.

BTC has a new lower weekly close, breaking the bullish structure. The TOTAL CRYPTO MARKETCAP hasn’t yet.

It may not. You can check out the commentary on that in my quarterly report here to see the possibilities and cues for possible outcomes.

https://zenalyticstrading.substack.com/p/the-scheduled-signal-2026-q1?r=e4xou

It’s entirely possible to just consolidate here, then rally from this low this month. Regardless, I’m playing the waiting game now in terms of new bullish positioning.

On a side note, none of this price action should be a shock for regular readers. The longer-running theme for over a year now has been that 2025 would be the topping of the market, and has provided targets in real time.

https://open.substack.com/pub/zenalyticstrading/p/why-the-crypto-top-may-be-closer?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

https://zenalyticstrading.substack.com/p/158-we-are-walking-down-a-bad-path?r=e4xou

https://zenalyticstrading.substack.com/p/162-heed-the-words-of-wisdom?r=e4xou

No, the shape wasn’t perfect, and yes, the exact moment was slightly delayed beyond my expectations in late 2024/early 2025, but the idea/concept and targets have all been validated without fail.

Leave a comment

🤪 Off-Topic Corner

All my written content is free. If last week’s work saved you time, made you money, or prevented you from losing money, consider sending the value back. Donations go towards data provider costs. These resources enable my high-quality analysis.

Donate Here

My Current Location: Da Lat, Vietnam

I’ve seen so many clothes-wearing pups since we started travelling, but none as formal as this.

I’ll be launching a private trade setup channel on Telegram soon. All the positions I have posted above are cued by the signals going to this channel. Be on the lookout for more information in a follow-up newsletter/announcement. The Alpha group started already. Beta launch soon.

If you’ve been following my journey over on https://charterquest.substack.com/, you may already have an idea of what’s upcoming. I’ll register my company so I can manage investors’ capital professionally. Once regulatory approval is covered, for the first time, the analysis you've followed through Crypto Checkpoint can become an investment you make.

If you’ve been following me here on Zen Trades, you know I have always been driven towards improvement and accuracy. This credential represents years of work and progress, transforming insights into action. Now, instead of reading about a crypto bottom or top, your capital benefits when I execute on my analysis.

For years, I've maintained a public track record through quarterly forecasts in the Schedule Signal and weekly Crypto Checkpoint updates, documenting market calls in real-time.

This offering of professional capital management is for followers who don't have the time, energy, or desire to execute crypto strategies themselves. You'll benefit from the analysis and disciplined rigor across all ZT content, applied directly to your investment.

Register your interest in this form below. There’s zero commitment or cost.

https://zenalytics.notion.site/620f87f918e048d9856e382dc30c73bd

I’ll be sharing a more detailed post later this week, but I’m curious about my readers' appetite for this.

My company’s registration status does not imply a certain level of skill. 
Past analysis and commentary do not assure future results. 
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. 
Service availability may be limited to certain jurisdictions.

@ThePrivacySmurf

Subscribe now

1. Total Market Weekly Structure

No New Changes - Most Recent Update Nov 9, 2025:

(Chart: Link)

Trend: Bullish. On retracement from the latest ATH.

Key Levels: Resistance at $4.15T. Support at $2.46T.

Confirmation Watch: Awaiting two consecutive bullish candles and a close above $3.14T (at the time of writing) to confirm support.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish: Market Cap rallies and sets a higher high close above $4.15T. This establishes a traditional bullish trend continuation pattern (MAR low, SEP high, potential higher low here, future higher high later), delaying a shift towards a bearish trend and bear market. With a close below 2.46T the bullish possibility will be invalidated.

• Traditional Bearish: Two bullish weeks and a rally above $3.14T would give us structure support at the lowest close. Breaking below that after that support confirmation would flip the weekly trend to bearish as it would create the traditional high, low, lower high, lower low zigzag shape.

2. Total Market Daily Structure

No new changes - Most Recent Update Nov 4, 2025:

(Chart: Link)

Trend: Bullish. On retracement from the latest ATH.

Key Levels: Potential resistance at $3.25T & $3.53T, Resistance at $4.22T. Closest confirmed support is at $2.39T.

Confirmation Watch: Awaiting a close above $3.17T (at the time of writing) to confirm support.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish: A rally confirming a support would be a step towards making a traditional bullish continuation (APR low, OCT high, potential higher low here, future higher high later), delaying a shift towards a bearish trend and bear market. With a close below 2.39T the bullish possibility will be invalidated.

• Bearish: A rally above $3.17T would give us structure support at the lowest close. Breaking below that after that support confirmation would flip the daily trend to bearish as it would create the traditional high, low, lower high, lower low zigzag shape (OCT high, potential low here, future lower high later, future lower low after that).

3. Crypto Money Flow

No new changes - Most Recent Update Jan 7, 2026:

(Chart: Link)

Anchor point: Jan 30, 2026, 02:20 UTC.

Observation: I’ve pushed the anchor point forward to maintain a proper granularity to identify the next rotation, but the environment is unchanged. Stablecoins are capturing market share amid a market-wide retracement. BTC is still increasing steadily.

Interpretation: The market is pulling back, supports have broken and capitulation is happening. Everything not BTC is being sold as a protective measure. There are occasional dip buys and ALTs but are short lived.

4. Additional Metrics

Retail Sentiment:

Extremely Fearful. Market participants are super nervous. Despite the declining price action we should still be on the lookout for the bullish signal to buy this fear for the turnaround. Patience is key to not be underwater.

Market Validity Score:

The vast majority of assets show bearish structure. We are at another DCA opportunity.

Market Drivers:

The Market Driver Ratio measures relative performance concentration among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by comparing market-cap-weighted performance with equally weighted performance.

• Rising ratio: Indicates a concentrated, large-cap dominated market. This typically reflects risk-off sentiment or Bitcoin/Ethereum leadership. Consider favoring large-cap positions or reducing altcoin exposure.

• Falling ratio: Signals broad-based strength and altcoin outperformance. This reflects risk-on sentiment and market expansion. Consider rotating into smaller-cap opportunities.

• Watch for turning points or ranges where the ratio changes overall direction or breaks levels. These often indicate shifts in market regime and can signal when to reposition between large-cap and altcoin strategies.

Speculative trading has declined significantly, and capital continues to flow back to BTC and large caps. Be wary of small-cap trades right now. They are on a fragile footing and will be pushed around by large-cap moves.

Click the links below if you need a refresher on the sections above:

• Market Structure

• Crypto Money Flow

• Retail Sentiment

• Market Validity

@ThePrivacySmurf

This post breaks down the probabilistic confidence behind the 2026 Q1 forecast, so you know exactly where the model speaks with conviction and where it is lacking.

For deeper context on my forecasting philosophy and accuracy metrics, see:

• The Forecasting Accountability Gap

• How I Measure Forecast Accuracy

While the Scheduled Signal: 2026 Q1 outlines expected turning points, this analysis quantifies the likelihood of those turns materializing based on historical validation and model-specific performance.

Q1 in Focus: A Quarter of Contrasts

The 2026 Q1 outlook isn't uniformly strong or weak. Instead, it reveals three high-conviction pillars surrounded by moderate-to-weak secondary signals.

Confidence, in this framework, measures the probability that all scheduled turning points for a given model will be validated by price action.

Key Confidence Metrics:

• 🎯 Overall blended confidence (7 models): 66.3%

• 📊 Individual model range: 50.0% to 94.4%

• 💪 High-confidence models (≥75%): 3 of 7

This constitutes a good quarter setup, with a solid foundation for turning points. Compared to Q4 2025 (64.4% overall confidence), Q1 shows marginal improvement across the board: top-tier models strengthened (TOTALMC now at 94.4% vs. 91.9%), and the weakest signals raised their floor (50.0% vs. 47.9%).

Bottom line: Q1 is slightly better than Q4, but the playbook stays the same. Trust the top three models (TOTALMC, CRYPTO100, BTC) and use the rest sparingly. Don't treat a 94% confidence signal the same as a 50% one.

Note: This is a preliminary assessment. Not all Q4 turning points have been fully validated. An updated confidence report will follow once validation is complete.

Symbol     Accuracy      Validation Status
---------  ------------  -------------------------------
CRYPTO100  100% (3/3)    Fully validated
TOTALMC    100% (5/5)    Fully validated
BTC        63.6% (7/11)  Fully validated
SOPR       66.7% (2/3)   Fully validated
ALTS       50% (1/2)     Partial - 2 of 3 turns assessed
ZTSTRESS   66.7% (2/3)   Fully validated
ZB         75% (3/4)     Fully validated

Per-Model Likelihood That All Q1 Turns Will Be Validated

• TOTALMC: 94.4% (3 turns)

• CRYPTO100: 83.3% (3 turns)

• BTC: 71.0% (5 turns)

• ZTSTRESS: 58.9% (3 turns)

• ALTS: 56.5% (5 turns)

• SOPR: 50.0% (5 turns)

• ZB: 50.0% (4 turns)

Practical Implications for Traders

Three models stand out as primary signal generators:

✅ TOTALMC (94.4% confidence)

✅ CRYPTO100 (83.3% confidence)

✅ BTC (71.0% confidence)

These exhibit strong cycle integrity, historical alignment, and high validation rates—making them your core timing guides for Q1.

In contrast, SOPR, ALTS, ZTSTRESS, and ZB show moderate to low confidence (50.0%–58.9%). Their weaker pattern-detection suggests they should serve only as secondary confirmation tools, not as standalone trade triggers.

Actionable Guidance:

• Prioritize TOTALMC and CRYPTO100 for primary entry/exit timing.

• Use BTC as a tactical overlay for intraweek or short-term pivots.

• Treat SOPR, ALTS, ZTSTRESS, and ZB as supporting evidence, not decision drivers.

The turning point clusters (highlighted in the Q1 report) gain strong support from the high confidence in TOTALMC and CRYPTO100. This convergence increases the probability of meaningful inflection points forming in those windows.

However, the weaker signals in stress and bond indicators (ZTSTRESS, ZB) suggest the macro backdrop may not be fully confirmed. Even if timing proves accurate, the magnitude or follow-through of the move could be muted.

A Probabilistic Outlook—Not a Promise

Despite the historic accuracy and confidence, this does not guarantee outcomes.

It reflects a Bayesian-style assessment: Given historical pattern detection and current pattern strength, here’s how likely each signal is to hold.

The takeaway?

This is a selective quarter. Favor high-quality setups from your strongest models. Avoid overextending into low-conviction signals. And stay adaptable because in markets, uncertainty isn’t noise; it’s the signal.

Trade the strength. Respect the gaps and be patient. Adjust as validation unfolds if necessary.

@ThePrivacySmurf

📝 Smurf’s Cheat Sheet

Failed breakout and subsequent breakdown.

Retail sentiment is flirting with extreme fear readings.

Time of highest risk and highest reward for bullish trades.

I’m waiting for the RSI (momentum) to level out.

No action is an action.

Current Bullish Positioning:

• No BTC spot exposure.

• No BTC leveraged exposure (TP1 & closed above BE).

• Minimal leveraged ALT exposure (trailing stops not hit yet).

🎛️ Market Dashboard

Donate Here

Share

📈Technical Deep Dive (BTC)

Price Action: Retracement after failed breakout, back in consolidation.

RSI: Suggesting bearish impulsive price action in search of a new floor because measurements are below the midline and the adaptive bottom band. Closing back above the bottom band would signal the end of bearish impulsivity.

Divergence Trade Signal: Bearish trade confirmation on Tuesday’s close with initial target ~$83.4K.

Trading Approaches for the Week: Nothing to be done. It seems unlikely that a breakout will appear, given all the bearish technicals/target, and with the potential for downside very much in play, there’s no good setup to visualize without forcing it.

*   **Bullish - No Setups ATM **
    *   Condition: N/A
    *   Action: None
*   **Caution- No Setups ATM **
    *   Condition: N/A
    *   Action: None
*   **Bearish - Support Breakdown:**
    *   Condition: Close < $82K & all bullish divergences invalidated
    *   Action: Small short, StopLoss $89K, Initial target ~$76K.

Rist Management:

*   **Back in Spot Market if:**
    *   BTC: Divergence trade trigger on daily chart.
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   BTC: Small to Moderate entries

📈Technical Deep Dive (ETH & ALTs)

Price Action: Retracement after failed breakout, back in consolidation.

RSI: Suggesting bearish impulsive price action in search of a new floor because measurements are below the midline and the adaptive bottom band. Closing back above the bottom band would signal the end of bearish impulsivity.

Divergence Trade Signal: From a discretionary standpoint, an off-the-books (breaking many of my rules) setup targeting 3800-4100 with a stop under the momentum floor (~$2760) is still active and has a decent risk-to-reward setup right now, though waiting for the RSI to be back above the bottom band would be my cue for acting.

ALTs: With the market in decline, bullish ALT breakouts are pretty much off the table. Once the RSI is back in the bottom band, though, there will be many recovery setups. Using the image below, it’s less likely the IDEAL scenario will occur; the GOOD and OKAY setups will be plentiful and open to small position sizes worth considering.

Non-BTC Trading Approaches for the week:

*   **ETH & ALT Breakouts**
    *   Condition: BTC$ flat/down, BTC & Stable cap down, Mrkt Driver down           *   Action: Evaluate ETH & ALT consolidation breakouts

Risk Management:

*   **Stop-Losses:** (if random breakout appears)
    *   Placement under clear pivot point ideally < 12% below entry
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   Small entries

🎯Zen Trades Scoreboard

🔮 Current Bull Market Reflection

The bull market is still on with an asterisk. You can check out the commentary on that in my quarterly report here.

https://zenalyticstrading.substack.com/p/the-scheduled-signal-2026-q1?r=e4xou

Below, I’ve depicted some possible paths to hold in your mind. 26Q1 report favors the green bullish path. However, we are following the white neutral-to-bearish narrative, which I picked as the least likely option.

For weeks, I’ve been talking about the ideal scenario: flashing below the lowest low to create bullish divergence and rally out of it. Well, this is no longer an option. The supports have been held long enough that momentum now reflects current price action, and making new lows would be normal, not divergent price action, which would suggest bearish continuation, not a bear market rally.

Without the possibility of divergence on the daily timeframe powering a bear rally, I’m expecting lower highs this quarter. This opens the door for even lower lows next quarter.

Leave a comment

🤪 Off-Topic Corner

All my written content is free. If last week’s work saved you time, made you money, or prevented you from losing money, consider sending the value back. Donations go towards data provider costs. These resources enable my high-quality analysis.

Donate Here

My Current Location: Hoi An, Vietnam

I don’t even know what’s going on here. Spotted this restaurant (?) while walking around Old Town. On a side note, the French colonial architecture here in this area, combined with the river walk and waterfront, gives off strong New Orleans vibes to me.

I’ll be launching a private trade setup channel on Telegram soon. All the positions I have posted above are cued by the signals going to this channel. Be on the lookout for more information in a follow-up newsletter/announcement. The Alpha group will start testing this week. Beta launch soon after.

If you’ve been following my journey over on https://charterquest.substack.com/, you may already have an idea of what’s upcoming. I’ll register my company so I can manage investors’ capital professionally. Once regulatory approval is covered, for the first time, the analysis you've followed through Crypto Checkpoint can become an investment you make.

If you’ve been following me here on Zen Trades, you know I have always been driven towards improvement and accuracy. This credential represents years of work and progress, transforming insights into action. Now, instead of reading about a crypto bottom or top, your capital benefits when I execute on my analysis.

For years, I've maintained a public track record through quarterly forecasts in the Schedule Signal and weekly Crypto Checkpoint updates, documenting market calls in real-time.

This offering of professional capital management is for followers who don't have the time, energy, or desire to execute crypto strategies themselves. You'll benefit from the analysis and disciplined rigor across all ZT content, applied directly to your investment.

Register your interest in this form below. There’s zero commitment or cost.

https://zenalytics.notion.site/620f87f918e048d9856e382dc30c73bd

I’ll be sharing a more detailed post later this week, but I’m curious about my readers' appetite for this.

My company’s registration status does not imply a certain level of skill. 
Past analysis and commentary do not assure future results. 
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. 
Service availability may be limited to certain jurisdictions.

@ThePrivacySmurf

Subscribe now

1. Total Market Weekly Structure

No New Changes - Most Recent Update Nov 9, 2025:

(Chart: Link)

Trend: Bullish. On retracement from the latest ATH.

Key Levels: Resistance at $4.15T. Support at $2.46T.

Confirmation Watch: Awaiting two consecutive bullish candles and a close above $3.32T (at the time of writing) to confirm support.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish: Market Cap rallies and sets a higher high close above $4.15T. This establishes a traditional bullish trend continuation pattern (MAR low, SEP high, potential higher low here, future higher high later), delaying a shift towards a bearish trend and bear market.

• Bearish: Two bullish weeks and a rally above $3.32T would give us structure support at the lowest close. Breaking below that after that support confirmation would flip the weekly trend to bearish as it would create the traditional high, low, lower high, lower low zigzag shape.

2. Total Market Daily Structure

No new changes - Most Recent Update Nov 4, 2025:

(Chart: Link)

Trend: Bullish. On retracement from the latest ATH.

Key Levels: Potential resistance at $3.53T, Resistance at $4.22T. Potential support at $2.6T. Closest confirmed support is at $2.39T.

Confirmation Watch: Awaiting a close above $3.32T (at the time of writing) to confirm support.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish: A rally confirming a support would be a step towards making a traditional bullish continuation (APR low, OCT high, potential higher low here, future higher high later), delaying a shift towards a bearish trend and bear market.

• Bearish: A rally above $3.62T would give us structure support at the lowest close. Breaking below that after that support confirmation would flip the daily trend to bearish as it would create the traditional high, low, lower high, lower low zigzag shape (OCT high, potential low here, future lower high later, future lower low after that).

3. Crypto Money Flow

No new changes - Most Recent Update Jan 7, 2026:

(Chart: Link)

Anchor point: Jan 7, 2026, 09:00 UTC.

Observation: Stablecoins are capturing market share amid a market-wide retracement. BTC is still increasing steadily.

Interpretation: The market is pulling back to support. Everything not BTC is being sold as a protective measure. There may be a minor speculative alt rotation if the BTC and Stables line fall from here, and ETH & ALTs hold this low.

4. Additional Metrics

Retail Sentiment:

Highly Fearful. Market participants are super nervous. It didn’t take much to reach extreme fear again. We should still be on the lookout for the bullish signal to buy this fear for the turnaround.

Market Validity Score:

Most assets show bearish structure. We are nearing a DCA opportunity.

Market Drivers:

The Market Driver Ratio measures relative performance concentration among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by comparing market-cap-weighted performance with equally weighted performance.

• Rising ratio: Indicates a concentrated, large-cap dominated market. This typically reflects risk-off sentiment or Bitcoin/Ethereum leadership. Consider favoring large-cap positions or reducing altcoin exposure.

• Falling ratio: Signals broad-based strength and altcoin outperformance. This reflects risk-on sentiment and market expansion. Consider rotating into smaller-cap opportunities.

• Watch for turning points or ranges where the ratio changes overall direction or breaks levels. These often indicate shifts in market regime and can signal when to reposition between large-cap and altcoin strategies.

Speculative trading has declined significantly, and capital continues to flow back to BTC and large caps. Be wary of small-cap trades right now. They are on a fragile footing and will be pushed around by large-cap moves.

Click the links below if you need a refresher on the sections above:

• Market Structure

• Crypto Money Flow

• Retail Sentiment

• Market Validity

@ThePrivacySmurf

1. Total Market Weekly Structure

No New Changes - Most Recent Update Nov 9, 2025:

(Chart: Link)

Trend: Bullish. On retracement from the latest ATH.

Key Levels: Resistance at $4.15T. Support at $2.46T.

Confirmation Watch: Awaiting two consecutive bullish candles and a close above $3.32T (at the time of writing) to confirm support.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish: Market Cap rallies and sets a higher high close above $4.15T. This establishes a traditional bullish trend continuation pattern (MAR low, SEP high, potential higher low here, future higher high later), delaying a shift towards a bearish trend and bear market.

• Bearish: Two bullish weeks and a rally above $3.32T would give us structure support at the lowest close. Breaking below that after that support confirmation would flip the weekly trend to bearish as it would create the traditional high, low, lower high, lower low zigzag shape.

2. Total Market Daily Structure

No new changes - Most Recent Update Nov 4, 2025:

(Chart: Link)

Trend: Bullish. On retracement from the latest ATH.

Key Levels: Potential resistance at $3.53T, Resistance at $4.22T. Potential support at $2.6T. Closest confirmed support is at $2.39T.

Confirmation Watch: Awaiting a close above $3.32T (at the time of writing) to confirm support.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish: A rally confirming a support would be a step towards making a traditional bullish continuation (APR low, OCT high, potential higher low here, future higher high later), delaying a shift towards a bearish trend and bear market.

• Bearish: A rally above $3.62T would give us structure support at the lowest close. Breaking below that after that support confirmation would flip the daily trend to bearish as it would create the traditional high, low, lower high, lower low zigzag shape (OCT high, potential low here, future lower high later, future lower low after that).

3. Crypto Money Flow

No new changes - Most Recent Update Jan 7, 2026:

(Chart: Link)

Anchor point: Jan 7, 2026, 09:00 UTC.

Observation: A consolidating bottom has formed a new rotation, and thus a new rotation has appeared with BTC and Stables taking the most interest, and ETH & ALT market caps waning.

Interpretation: The market is back to stacking BTC. Any subsequent action will likely be a majority BTC move with less ALT participation or a market-wide dip where ALTs get beaten down heavier.

4. Additional Metrics

Retail Sentiment:

Back in Extreme Fear. Market participants are super nervous. We should still be on the lookout for the bullish signal to buy this fear for the turnaround.

Market Validity Score:

Most assets show bearish structure. The attempts to shift the market to a bullish stance have been pushed back.

Market Drivers:

The Market Driver Ratio measures relative performance concentration among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by comparing market-cap-weighted performance with equally weighted performance.

• Rising ratio: Indicates a concentrated, large-cap dominated market. This typically reflects risk-off sentiment or Bitcoin/Ethereum leadership. Consider favoring large-cap positions or reducing altcoin exposure.

• Falling ratio: Signals broad-based strength and altcoin outperformance. This reflects risk-on sentiment and market expansion. Consider rotating into smaller-cap opportunities.

• Watch for turning points or ranges where the ratio changes overall direction or breaks levels. These often indicate shifts in market regime and can signal when to reposition between large-cap and altcoin strategies.

Speculative trading has declined significantly, and capital continues to flow back to BTC and large caps. Be wary of small-cap trades right now. They are on a fragile footing and will be pushed around by large-cap moves.

Click the links below if you need a refresher on the sections above:

• Market Structure

• Crypto Money Flow

• Retail Sentiment

• Market Validity

@ThePrivacySmurf

📝 Smurf’s Cheat Sheet

Last week's momentum cooled. Ceilings have been formed. Extreme fear persists, but the range breakout/breakdown setup is clear. Options are: buy support current test buy a breakout rip buy the support breakdown at the bottom of the range

Current Bullish Positioning:

• No BTC spot exposure.

• BTC leveraged long @ $85.8K.

• Decreased leveraged ALT exposure (trailing stops hit)

🎛️ Market Dashboard

Donate Here

Share

because this popped up in my feed.

https://x.com/stevelovesammo/status/2010242718698746061?s=46

📈Technical Deep Dive (BTC)

Price Action: Price consolidation nearing the ultimate breakout point.

RSI: Suggesting ceiling and/or consolidation range formation because measurements are above the midline but closed below the adaptive top band. Bullish impulsive action has ceased with a new momentum breakout ceiling at $93.9K.

Divergence Trade Signal: Nothing of note at the moment.

Trading Approaches for the Week: Caution - "Bottom Is In?" Bounce. The conditions outlined weren’t met for an entry, but OH SO CLOSE on Monday. I think the opportunity is still there; same setup with a higher stop. With the RSI creating a momentum ceiling, this is an even breakout cleaner setup.

*   **Bullish - No Setups ATM **
    *   Condition: N/A
    *   Action: None
*   **Caution - "Bottom Is In?" Bounce**
    *   Condition: Close > $94K, (ideally) RSI > midline.
    *   Action: Leveraged long, StopLoss sub$87K or $88.9K, Initial target ~$105K.
*   **Bearish - Support Breakdown:**
    *   Condition: Close < $82K & all bullish divergences invalidated
    *   Action: Small short, StopLoss $89K, Initial target ~$76K.

Rist Management:

*   **Back in Spot Market On:**
    *   BTC: Divergence trade trigger on daily chart.
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   BTC: Small to Moderate entries

📈Technical Deep Dive (ETH & ALTs)

Price Action: Price consolidation nearing the ultimate breakout point.

RSI: Suggesting ceiling and/or consolidation range formation because measurements are above the midline but closed below the adaptive top band. Bullish impulsive action has ceased, with a new momentum breakout ceiling at $3297, just below the prior one at $3324.

Divergence Trade Signal: From a discretionary standpoint, one could consider an entry targeting 3800-4100. I’d keep the stop loss under the momentum floor. It's not by the book, so this wouldn’t qualify as an official position under the ZT rules.

ALTs: As expected last week, ALTs’ momentum slowed and pulled back. This has created new opportunities from the emerging resistances. Wait for these breakouts instead of picking up on bounces or risk buying all the way down to supports.

Non-BTC Trading Approaches for the week:

*   **ETH & ALT Breakouts**
    *   Condition: BTC$ flat/down, BTC & Stable cap down, Mrkt Driver down           *   Action: Evaluate ETH & ALT consolidation breakouts

Risk Management:

*   **Stop-Losses:** (if random breakout appears)
    *   Placement under clear pivot point ideally < 12% below entry
    
*   **Position Sizing:**
    *   Small entries

🎯Zen Trades Scoreboard

🔮 Current Bull Market Reflection

The bull market is still on with an asterisk. Ultimately, the same bull and bear cases exist; it’s too soon to confirm either. We’ll see how this quarter plays out. You can check out the commentary on that in my quarterly report here.

Have you read it yet? If not, what are you waiting for? If so, do you agree or disagree? What are your thoughts on the market for the next couple of months?

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🤪 Off-Topic Corner

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I’ll be launching a private trade setup channel on Telegram soon. All the positions I have posted above are cued by the signals going to this channel. Be on the lookout for more information in a follow-up newsletter/announcement. The Alpha group will start testing this week. Beta launch will be soon after, offering to all my readers.

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Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Service availability may be limited to certain jurisdictions.

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1. Total Market Weekly Structure

No New Changes - Most Recent Update Nov 9, 2025:

(Chart: Link)

Trend: Bullish. On retracement from the latest ATH.

Key Levels: Resistance at $4.15T. Support at $2.46T.

Confirmation Watch: Awaiting two consecutive bullish candles and a close above $3.32T (at the time of writing) to confirm support.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish: Market Cap rallies and sets a higher high close above $4.15T. This establishes a traditional bullish trend continuation pattern (MAR low, SEP high, potential higher low here, future higher high later), delaying a shift towards a bearish trend and bear market.

• Bearish: Two bullish weeks and a rally above $3.32T would give us structure support at the lowest close. Breaking below that after that support confirmation would flip the weekly trend to bearish as it would create the traditional high, low, lower high, lower low zigzag shape.

2. Total Market Daily Structure

No new changes - Most Recent Update Nov 4, 2025:

(Chart: Link)

Trend: Bullish. On retracement from the latest ATH.

Key Levels: Potential resistance at $3.53T, Resistance at $4.22T. Potential support at $2.6T. Closest confirmed support is at $2.39T.

Confirmation Watch: Awaiting a close above $3.32T (at the time of writing) to confirm support.

Potential Scenarios:

• Bullish: A rally confirming a support would be a step towards making a traditional bullish continuation (APR low, OCT high, potential higher low here, future higher high later), delaying a shift towards a bearish trend and bear market.

• Bearish: A rally above $3.62T would give us structure support at the lowest close. Breaking below that after that support confirmation would flip the daily trend to bearish as it would create the traditional high, low, lower high, lower low zigzag shape (OCT high, potential low here, future lower high later, future lower low after that).

3. Crypto Money Flow

New Changes!! - Most Recent Update Jan 7, 2026:

(Chart: Link)

Anchor point: Jan 7, 2026, 09:00 UTC.

Observation: A consolidating bottom has formed a new rotation, and thus a new rotation has appeared with BTC and Stables taking the most interest, and ETH & ALT market caps waning.

Interpretation: The market is back to stacking BTC, hopefully in anticipation of a breakout. This may occur when BTC crosses the stable line, continuing the trend of its recent uptick. The follow-on ETH & ALT rotation would be something to watch for once they both break out of the resistance around the 0.99 level.

4. Additional Metrics

Retail Sentiment:

Back in Extreme Fear. Market participants are super nervous. We should still be on the lookout for the bullish signal to buy this fear for the turnaround.

Market Validity Score:

Sorry, my image generation script has a new bug that I haven’t solved yet. Nearly all crypto assets exhibit a bearish daily pattern. Perpetual bottom finding. DCA opportunities abound.

Market Drivers:

The Market Driver Ratio measures relative performance concentration among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by comparing market-cap-weighted performance with equally weighted performance.

• Rising ratio: Indicates a concentrated, large-cap dominated market. This typically reflects risk-off sentiment or Bitcoin/Ethereum leadership. Consider favoring large-cap positions or reducing altcoin exposure.

• Falling ratio: Signals broad-based strength and altcoin outperformance. This reflects risk-on sentiment and market expansion. Consider rotating into smaller-cap opportunities.

• Watch for turning points or ranges where the ratio changes overall direction or breaks levels. These often indicate shifts in market regime and can signal when to reposition between large-cap and altcoin strategies.

Speculative trading has declined significantly, and capital has rotated back to BTC and large caps. Be wary of small-cap trades right now. They are on a fragile footing and will be pushed around by large-cap moves.

Click the links below if you need a refresher on the sections above:

• Market Structure

• Crypto Money Flow

• Retail Sentiment

• Market Validity

@ThePrivacySmurf

Q1 Bias: Late Q4 bottom formation → mid-late Jan BTC breakout → BTC-led grind up into mid-March / ALTs underperform → Mid-late March broad market top under BTC ATH (end of bear market rally).

High-Edge Trigger Window: Jan 15 – Jan 26. BTC bottom window: TOTALMC & ALT/BTC rollover plus SOPR bottoms (max coins sold at a loss). Rotation shifts back to BTC. This is the breakout confirmation window.

High-Edge Exit Window: March 14 – March 25. Dense top cluster across BTC, TOTALMC, and SOPR. Highest-conviction profit-taking opportunity at the end of the BTC-led bear market rally.

Key Levels:  Total mCap ~$2.92T / ~$3.16T / ~$3.82T BTC ~$80,600 / ~$95,000 / ~$110,000

Allocation: 80% exposure, 20% cash. (Build long exposure in early Jan bottom cluster. Maintain through the late Jan BTC breakout and BTC-led grind. Plan to aggressively take profits at the mid-March top window, reducing exposure to ~30% and raising cash to ~70%. If BTC fails to break $95K in the late Jan bottom window or immediately rejects, evaluate reducing exposure or a move to cash early.)

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🎯 Zen Trades Scoreboard

Turning Points (As of Jan 8, 2026)

The accuracy report will be available in mid-February, after the final Q4 windows have been confirmed. Worst quarter of 2025 so far, coming off the best quarter. Overall, still good with an unconfirmed 77.4% success on the year across all 7 assets forecasted.

Did you lock in any profits in Q4?

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🎛️ Market Dashboard (Clock Wall)

The zigzags below illustrate closing prices moving through the scheduled peaks and troughs. These particular price levels are not expected to play out as indicated by the zigzags. Correct price speculation, if it occurs, is almost entirely a matter of luck.

Here’s an additional image that shows the timing window overlaps more clearly.

Click below for the full images and links to tradingview charts.

Full Size Images & Chart Links

🔬 Technical Deep Dive

1. Late December / Early January (Bottom Formation):

• Cluster: The period from December 14 to January 6 marked a broad market bottom. We see synchronized troughs in BTC, TOTALMC, CRYPTO100, ALT/BTC, ZTSTRESS, and ZB.

• Confirmation: SOPR values are well below 1.0 during this window, indicating coins are being sold at a loss as prices decline, consistent with capitulation.

• Interpretation: This is a textbook bottom formation where crypto assets, macro stress, bonds, and equities all find a floor together. The late Q4 selloff exhausts, establishing the base for the Q1 bear market rally.

2. Early-to-Mid January (Consolidation & Alt Rotation):

• Divergence: BTC enters a top window (Jan 8-13) while ALT/BTC continues higher toward its late Jan top.

• Interpretation: BTC consolidates at the $95K resistance level while ALTs outperform. A classic rotation during BTC indecision after a rally. The rotation plays out while BTC teases but fails to break resistance, setting up the late Jan trigger.

3. Late January (The Breakout Trigger):

• Cluster: BTC bottom window (Jan 15-26) arrives as TOTALMC tops (Jan 16-23), ALT/BTC tops (Jan 20-27), and ZTSTRESS peaks (Jan 24 to Feb 2).

• Rotation Signal: ALT rotation exhausts precisely as BTC finds its bottom window. The leadership baton passes back to BTC.

• Interpretation: This is the breakout confirmation window. BTC breaks $95K while ALTs lose value relative to BTC, macro ZTSTRESS searches to find a peak - a BTC-led move into a deteriorating backdrop. The rally from here will be narrow, not broad-based.

4. February (BTC-Led Grind / ALT Vulnerability):

• Divergence: No BTC turning window in February. BTC stair step grinds higher while CRYPTO100 tops (Feb 2-13), ALT/BTC chops with a short cycle (bottom Feb 11-14, top Feb 15-21), and ZB tops (Feb 11-20).

• Interpretation: BTC continues its move with no major downturn, while ALTs show weakness and failed rotation attempts. ALTs are vulnerable to any BTC turbulence - they take outsized hits on dips and underperform on rallies. ZB prices are topping out and/or beginning to decline, and ZTSTRESS has already peaked.

5. Mid-Late March (The Major Top / End of Bear Market Rally):

• Massive Cluster: Between March 14 and March 25, we observe a tight cluster of tops for BTC, TOTALMC, and SOPR.

• Confirmation: Earlier CRYPTO100 bottoms and ALT/BTC bottoms arrive with no meaningful ALT participation on the charts. ZTSTRESS and ZB are rising - stress increasing, flight to safety resuming.

• Rotation Signal: Large caps make their highs while small caps are in ranging patterns with no rally participation. This is the inverse of a healthy top: instead of broadening into a blow-off, it's narrowing into BTC-only strength.

• Interpretation: This is a very high-conviction signal for the Q1 top and the end of the bear market rally. BTC is topping out below its all-time high (a lower high); ALTs show no confirmation; stress is rising; bonds are being bought; equities are rolling over. The rally was BTC-led from the start and ends BTC-led. What follows is the resumption of the broader bearish structure into summer.

Click below for a link to the turning window dates in a list format.

Detailed Timing Window Lists

🤔 Scenario Matrix

🤔 Q1 2026 Actionable Trading Plan

Mark Your Calendar: The two critical windows for Q1 are late January (Jan 15-26) for the BTC breakout trigger and mid-March (March 14-25) for the high-conviction exit. These are ideal zones for evaluating action, not exact dates.

Heed the Warnings: When ALT/BTC tops (Jan 20-27) while BTC finds its bottom window (Jan 15-26), that's your rotation signal—leadership is passing back to BTC. When large caps top in March while ALTs show no participation, the bear market rally is exhausting.

Step 1: Create a simple calendar alert system

• Enter Jan 15 in your charting platform. Note: "BTC breakout window begins. Monitor for 95K break + ALT/BTC rollover. High-conviction entry zone."

• Enter March 14 in your charting platform. Note: "Top window begins. Monitor for BTC lower high under ATH + alt weakness. High-conviction exit zone."

Step 2: Use confirmation tools inside a window

• Late Jan Breakout (Jan 15-26): Look for a bullish breakout above 95K with increasing volume. Confirm with ALT/BTC flat or declining and SOPR rising from a low pivot point. Watch for TOTALMC to underperform BTC as it continues to rise—this divergence confirms a narrow, BTC-led rally.

• Mid-March Top (March 14-25): Look for bearish divergences—BTC makes a local high but CRYPTO100 and ALT/BTC consolidate (no participation). Rising ZTSTRESS and ZB (bonds bought up) confirm risk-off rotation. SOPR spiking signals profit-taking.

• Volume Rules: A bullish break above $95K on above-average volume inside the Jan window adds conviction. A daily close in the top 25% of range on declining volume inside the March window suggests exhaustion.

Step 3: Size positions by conviction

• Late Jan Breakout: If BTC breaks 95K, ALT/BTC tops, SOPR bottoms, and TOTALMC increases under BTC as outlined—this is a high-conviction signal to be at 80% exposure. If BTC fails to break 95K or immediately rejects, reduce to 50% or move to cash.

• Mid-March Top: As BTC, TOTALMC, and SOPR all reach top windows (March 14-25) with ALTs showing low strength and macro indicators turning risk-off, take aggressive profit. Reduce exposure to ~30%, raise cash to ~70%.

Step 4: Risk controls

• Entry stop (late Jan): If entering on the Jan breakout, place initial stop below December lows. If BTC fails to hold this level, the Bear scenario (20% odds) is activating.

• Trailing stop (through rally): As BTC grinds higher through Feb, trail your stop to break-even, then to recent swing lows. Protect gains as you approach the March cluster.

• Exit discipline (mid-March): Don't wait for perfection. When 2-3 top signals align in the March 14-25 window (BTC lower high, ALT weakness, ZTSTRESS rising, ZB rising), execute your exit plan on the first technical trigger. The risk/reward balance will begin to favor shorts at this point, not longs.

Step 5: Scenario monitoring

• Bull scenario watch: If BTC holds above $90K through late March instead of rolling over, and ALT/BTC finds support at its late March bottom window—pause the exit. This suggests the 25% Bull scenario (consolidation into Q3 setup) may be activating. Re-evaluate for Q2.

• Bear scenario watch: If BTC fails to break $95K in late Jan, or ZTSTRESS spikes early without waiting for the late Jan peak window, or SOPR stays elevated (no washout)—the 20% Bear scenario is likely. Move to cash or hedge. Re-evaluate in late Feb/March for tactical relief rally only.

🤪 Off Topic Corner

Current Location: Hoi An, Vietnam

As we move into a new year, it’s hard not to reflect on the past one. Looking back, I don’t feel bad about this.

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Remember, markets are risky. I’m not your financial advisor, and none of the analysis presented is financial advice.

@ThePrivacySmurf

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